There are two potential areas for tropical development in the middle of June, but forecasters say the chance is low.
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00:00AccuWeather meteorologists do anticipate a supercharged year for tropical systems,
00:04including multiple threats to the U.S., the Caribbean, and also Central America.
00:09We have, again, a lot cooking out there with the current weather pattern
00:12and all that drenching rain in Florida.
00:14As we take you into the tropics right now, there are two features we're keeping an eye on,
00:19two of these here, that really have yet to fully present themselves as separate identities right now.
00:26We have this band of moisture coming from the Yucatan and Cozumel up into Florida,
00:30and this is going to be a persistent streamer of moisture over the next couple of days.
00:34Now, a chunk of this is going to break off, and we're going to be watching an area of low pressure
00:39in a disorganized state across Florida.
00:41Too disorganized to be named during the time that it crosses Florida
00:44because we're really focused on impacts, and we care about you.
00:47We want you to be aware of the weather.
00:49We're calling this a tropical rainstorm because it's bringing tropical rainfall.
00:52Now, farther southwest, there will be another area of low pressure that begins to form
00:56over the area near the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico,
00:59and that becomes the second prospect for development.
01:03Here's number one, though.
01:04This is our tropical rainstorm crossing Florida, still disorganized, not officially named,
01:08but still bringing, we have that forecast of 18 to 24 inches of rain in southwest Florida,
01:13so obviously big impact.
01:15Some of you have had your cars flooded today in Holiday, Florida.
01:18That's a big deal.
01:20Name or not, it's bringing impacts.
01:22This is going to cross Florida.
01:23And then, here you can see, sometimes the forecasters call these lemons.
01:28There's a lemon off the east coast of the southeast coast.
01:31This is the zone where that disturbance could conceivably become organized here
01:36as it interacts with the upper-level winds,
01:38and it might become a tropical or subtropical named storm.
01:41Low chance of that, though, a low chance.
01:43And we can watch this happen here.
01:44Watch this area of low pressure form, and here it becomes a cohesive area of circulation
01:49in this particular model, 1 p.m. Friday, way east of Myrtle Beach.
01:53And maybe we see this become a named storm.
01:55We'll see.
01:56Then, off to the southwest, you can see another area with that counterclockwise flow
02:00over the southern Gulf of Mexico known as the Bay of Campeche there.
02:04That's how they pronounce it.
02:05And this is a second area where we might conceivably see some development.
02:09Overall, we're going to be watching this drift north Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
02:13and that becomes the next opportunity for rain into parts of Texas.
02:17And that will be, again, another storyline that we have to keep an eye on.
02:20There's low chance.
02:21You can see we're color-coding things yellow and low chance of development.
02:25But it is something to watch.
02:26And, again, we haven't had an official named storm yet.
02:29Statistically, we're not late.
02:31We're not behind yet.
02:32But we haven't had a season with an average or later-than-average start since 2014.