thoroughbreddailynews
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Transcript
00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28Welcome to another edition of the TDN Writer's Room, a Kentucky Derby edition.
00:00:33We've come in through all the preps, got the draw, the race is Saturday and our team is
00:00:37raring to go.
00:00:38Hopefully we'll give you some insights that will help you cash in some tickets and better
00:00:42enjoy the race.
00:00:43My name is Bill Finley.
00:00:44I'm a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News and also co-host of the Down the Stretch
00:00:48radio show on Saturdays on Sirius XM Radio with Dan Johnson.
00:00:53I am Randy Moss with NBC Sports.
00:00:55I hope I'm raring to go.
00:00:57I am here at Churchill Downs, we're taping this now, on Monday morning and we probably
00:01:03need to get that out there when we talk about the Derby horses because with all the dropouts
00:01:07we've seen in past years, who knows what's going to happen between now and Saturday.
00:01:11But I'm in a production trailer just outside of Churchill Downs and just got here and ready
00:01:18to roll.
00:01:20And for those just listening to this, that wasn't the sound of Randy trying to actually
00:01:24escape from a box because that's exactly what it sounded like.
00:01:28He is at Churchill Downs.
00:01:29I'm Zoe Cabman.
00:01:30I'm home and I work for Santa Anita and XBTV and I'm delighted to be here.
00:01:36It is Monday morning and pretty early.
00:01:39Well, but it's not too early, Zoe, to try to figure out this puzzle that is the 150th
00:01:45Kentucky Derby.
00:01:46So folks, here's what I thought we would do.
00:01:48We're literally going to go over every single horse in the race.
00:01:52We'll give the 50 to one shots, 10, 15 seconds, but and do more with the main contenders.
00:01:57So let's just get this started through post position order.
00:02:01And in this first segment, we'll do the first ten.
00:02:03It's all good in there.
00:02:07We're kicking off the post position draw, right?
00:02:14Does he have a name?
00:02:15No.
00:02:16Would you like to name him?
00:02:18Doodle.
00:02:20No.
00:02:21That's taken.
00:02:22That's taken.
00:02:24Holy Bull.
00:02:25Because he's white.
00:02:26All right.
00:02:27Holy Bull.
00:02:28All right.
00:02:29At least there's something godly in my house.
00:02:30All right.
00:02:31All right.
00:02:32So let's get right to it.
00:02:33The number one post position at 20 to one is Dornach.
00:02:37I thought he was a big disappointment in the bluegrass when he really didn't run up to
00:02:42expectations.
00:02:43And I also think the post position draw for him is one of the most significant post draws
00:02:48in the entire race, because I don't think they have any choice but to go for the lead
00:02:52from the one post.
00:02:53They got to get him out there.
00:02:55And if he takes him back and settles in behind a bunch of horses from the one post, he could
00:03:00have a terrible trip.
00:03:01My prediction is that he will go for the lead, but I don't think he's going to be there at
00:03:07the end, Randy.
00:03:09Well, Danny Yargin had already said after they eased him back off the pace and he got
00:03:13an inside trip in the bluegrass that he did not react well, that they were going to employ
00:03:17a different strategy for the Kentucky Derby because it was even before the draw.
00:03:20He said, we need to keep his face clean.
00:03:22And now that he drew post number one, Yargin says, now he's going to have his face really
00:03:27clean.
00:03:28So I agree with you that it's the most impactful part of the draw.
00:03:31He'll probably go to the lead from the rail.
00:03:33Track Phantom will probably be out there with him and just outside of him.
00:03:37It probably guarantees, at the minimum, a fairly lively pace.
00:03:43And one thing we don't know, because a lot of things we don't know about these horses
00:03:46because they're so lightly braced.
00:03:48One thing we don't know necessarily conclusively, what if Dornach is the type of horse that
00:03:54improves substantially with the early lead?
00:03:57We've seen him run some hellacious races, a couple, when he was on the early lead.
00:04:02So that's the one caveat.
00:04:03You look at Dornach's form and you're like, OK, he hasn't really lived up to expectations.
00:04:08But if he can somehow control the pace in the Kentucky Derby, even in fast fractions,
00:04:13might he be the kind of horse that takes a big jump there?
00:04:15We don't know.
00:04:17Control the pace with fierceness in there and several others.
00:04:20I don't think so.
00:04:21We've got 20 horses to get through.
00:04:22I'll make this quick.
00:04:24I would not like to have interviewed Danny Gargan after the post position draw.
00:04:28One and 20.
00:04:30How do you, I mean, that's about as bad luck as you can get.
00:04:33So, yeah, Dornach is in very, very deep water.
00:04:36I hope he can swim.
00:04:38The second choice in the wagering is Sierra Leone at three to one who drew the two post.
00:04:43Now, some of his plans have been on this horse.
00:04:45I would have preferred he drew eight, nine, ten, something like that.
00:04:48But unlike Dornach, he's not a horse that's going to go for the lead.
00:04:52It's got a very smart jockey in him and Tyler Gafleon.
00:04:55He may run into some trouble somewhere.
00:04:57But I'm putting my faith in Tyler to ride a good race.
00:05:00And, you know, if things really break his way, you know, he's going to save ground on the first turn, which will help.
00:05:06Maybe if they could get an inside trip, a couple holes open up for him, he could get an extremely good trip.
00:05:12He could also get a lousy trip because of the two post.
00:05:15But I have faith in the connections.
00:05:17I think Chad Brown is going to get his first Kentucky Derby win, Zoe.
00:05:20I like him, too. I've loved him since he was a yearling.
00:05:23Boy, oh boy, has he grown. He's got this just giant.
00:05:26I'm going to call it like it is.
00:05:28It looks like a lumbering stride, but he just keeps going and he can go at a quick rhythm.
00:05:34The only problem he may have is that I do not see him threading the needle.
00:05:39He can save ground on the first turn, but the second turn he's going to have to swing out.
00:05:43I have no question he can get the mile and a quarter.
00:05:46But if he gets stopped as big as he is, he will never get going again.
00:05:52He is going to need a clean trip.
00:05:54But, yeah, he is he's a pick for me in the mile and a quarter is going to hit him right between the eyeballs.
00:06:00Oh, and the last sports to win from post position number two was affirmed.
00:06:05Is he affirmed? I don't know.
00:06:08Look, I totally agree that the mile and a quarter will be perfect for him.
00:06:12We talked about Doric and post one assuring a lively pace that will help him.
00:06:17Typically, I don't care about the 20 horse field and the comfort behind her.
00:06:21History has proven that if a horse is a Kentucky Derby worthy horse in the big majority of circumstances,
00:06:27they can make their own luck. The field gets spread out enough with a quick pace.
00:06:31They can find enough room to launch their bid.
00:06:34They're good enough. They win usually. And post position number two doesn't bother me in the least.
00:06:40Nope. Look, with his running style, he's going to be going back, not forward in the run to the first turn.
00:06:46So the traffic is not going to be an issue for him. Post position.
00:06:49Anyways, the draw is the most overrated part of the week.
00:06:52When we used to do a one hour post position draw on TV, it was the worst TV in the history of the broadcast.
00:06:59And in this case, you know, really the only drama in the post position draw was fierceness.
00:07:04And we'll get to that in a minute. So I think he is a strong, strong, strong contender.
00:07:10All right. Number three is Mystic Dan at 20 to one in the morning line.
00:07:14My take on him. He ran a one on one buyer when he won the Southwest States.
00:07:19If he can run that again, he's a contender. But then he came back and ran poorly in his next start.
00:07:24Did he bounce or was the one on one in the southwest of Fluke?
00:07:27I have tremendous success, tremendous confidence in trainer Kenny McPeak.
00:07:33He's one of those long shots that I think, you know, might make his name.
00:07:37You might hear his name coming down the stretch. Randy.
00:07:40Look, the Southwest States, he was aided by a tremendous rail bias that day on a muddy track at Oakmont.
00:07:45Almost all the horses that won that day were right on top of the rail.
00:07:48He sat on the rail every step of the way.
00:07:51He finished like a wild horse, the most visually impressive prep win other than fierceness in the Florida Derby.
00:07:57But he was aided by a bias and maybe even the muddy track.
00:08:01He had a bit of an excuse in the Arkansas Derby.
00:08:03To me, the real Mystic Dan is somewhere in between what you saw in the Southwest and what you saw in the Arkansas Derby,
00:08:10which to me is not good enough. I'm in agreement with Randy there.
00:08:15I mean, a good thing in his favor is that he broke his maiden by seven and a half at Churchill down.
00:08:19So he's going to handle the trip. Is he good enough? I don't think so.
00:08:25We shall find out. OK, the four horse at 8 to 1 is catching freedom.
00:08:29One of the Brad Cox entries into this race.
00:08:32He's also pace dependent, that's for sure. And also a question, is he good enough?
00:08:36I mean, he runs well, but he was third in the Risen Star behind Sierra Leone at Track Phantom.
00:08:41Two horses he's got to deal with again in the Kentucky Derby.
00:08:44He'd have to improve quite a bit to vault over those two horses.
00:08:49I would never disrespect or overlook a horse trained by Brad Cox, but I think, you know,
00:08:55this is a perfect horse that's going to clunk up a little bit and close her fifth or sixth or something like that.
00:09:00So he could get a little piece of it, especially they're calling for a little bit of rain Friday, Saturday.
00:09:05The last time I looked, it was 35, 40 percent on Saturday.
00:09:09He'll handle an off track. No problem.
00:09:11He's going to get a good trip under Flavian Pratt, who has won the Derby by TQ.
00:09:17But nonetheless, he's got plenty of experience there.
00:09:21So he'll get a little piece of it.
00:09:24He was a little bit slow coming around mentally for the Brad Cox stable.
00:09:28He's still when you see like his pre-Derby workout,
00:09:31he never has been a horse that really touts himself in the morning.
00:09:34So I wouldn't pay too much attention to that.
00:09:36I do think he needs to improve a little bit.
00:09:39A little bit off his Louisiana Derby win.
00:09:42He'll get the pace.
00:09:43But one thing that I really liked about his Louisiana Derby win is that he came from last pace,
00:09:47last place to win, and the pace wasn't particularly fast.
00:09:51And he was able to overcome that and win anyway.
00:09:55So I think he slots right in behind the top three or four.
00:10:00He's in there with a chance to win a chance to win and certainly a horse that could be part of the Exotics.
00:10:07Horse number five is Catalytic.
00:10:09He is 30 to one in the morning line, trained by Saffie Joseph.
00:10:12Jose Ortiz will ride.
00:10:14He's one of those we're just happy to be here horses.
00:10:17I can't see him being even competitive.
00:10:20I love the Fearsome's Catalytic exact in the Florida Derby,
00:10:24just because if you look at Catalytic's earlier races, visually, he was very, very impressive.
00:10:32Now, does getting beaten by almost 14 links in the Florida Derby by Fearsome make him a Kentucky Derby contender,
00:10:41even though he finished second in the Florida Derby?
00:10:43Probably on paper, no.
00:10:47He's got over the track pretty nicely there at Churchill Downs.
00:10:51He's going to be part of the pace.
00:10:52He's going to be close.
00:10:53It's going to be his best shot to get a piece of it.
00:10:56And his owner, Tammy Bobo, is going to be the best dressed person there at that.
00:11:01I can guarantee if you see someone walking over in heels, it'll be Tammy.
00:11:06So watch out.
00:11:08All right.
00:11:09One of the best stories in the race is, of course, Wayne Lucas not only having a horse in the Kentucky Derby at age 88,
00:11:14but riding Keith Asmussen, the son of Steve Asmussen, the Hall of Fame trainer,
00:11:19who was just a wonderful guest on our podcast last week.
00:11:23If you're a little bit behind, please go back and watch that.
00:11:25You'll be blown away by how articulate this young man was.
00:11:29And he's off to a great start in his career.
00:11:32I'm not going to pick this horse, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ran a pretty good race.
00:11:37And the reason why, there is a pattern with Lucas horses being erratic.
00:11:41They run one good race and one bad race, one good race, one bad race.
00:11:45So he's coming off the bad race.
00:11:48Well, actually, no, he's not.
00:11:49He's coming off the Arkansas Derby where he was second.
00:11:52But you can see in his past performances, he didn't run well in the Rebel.
00:11:55He's had several other races, the Breeders Futurity, he didn't run well.
00:11:58On his very best day, I think he could finish in the money.
00:12:03And who knows, maybe the gods up there are rooting for Wayne Lucas, just like so many fans will be.
00:12:10Well, he ran a new top last time on the 30th of March, running second behind Muth.
00:12:16I don't know.
00:12:19I mean, if you watch the works like I've been watching them, D. Wayne Lucas was, you know,
00:12:24he was like, I wish he'd gone faster.
00:12:26He wanted 50, he got 50 in one.
00:12:29And that wasn't a 50 in one the right way with the rider tugging at the reins.
00:12:33That horse looked like he wanted no part of anything to do with going a half mile over the strip on Churchill Downs.
00:12:39So whether he can rebound, maybe he's just a little flat right now.
00:12:43I've got no idea.
00:12:44Am I rooting for Wayne?
00:12:45Absolutely.
00:12:47Keith S. Mewson?
00:12:48Absolutely.
00:12:49But, you know, maybe we can just like lock him up in the stall for the next few days and freshen him up a little bit.
00:12:56But he did not look great getting over the Churchill Downs trip.
00:13:01NBC Sports, two big features for the Kentucky Derby telecast will be Larry Demeritt and West Saratoga,
00:13:07and the Honorary Brewery, which is going to be a fabulous feature.
00:13:10And also the Wayne Lucas-Hasmussen angle, because not just one of the key angles there,
00:13:16and Keith might have talked about this last week, I don't know.
00:13:19When Wayne was a young quarter horse trainer, he wrote Keith Hasmussen, the grandfather,
00:13:25and now he's writing Keith, the grandson.
00:13:28I mean, how many trainers do you see that have written grandfather and grandson?
00:13:32I guess if you're 88 years old, you can get to that point.
00:13:35But, look, Jeff Steele ran the race of his life in the Arkansas Derby.
00:13:39He was four wide on both turns and still, you know, ran a very good second behind Mooth.
00:13:47If he repeats that race, I think he'll be part of the Super Factor.
00:13:51But as Zoe pointed out, you know, there are some reasons to think that maybe he won't be quite as sharp.
00:13:59We have to try to, you know, turn over every rock we can find to look for any clues we possibly can.
00:14:05All right. The seven horses, Honor Marie, trained by Witt Beckman, ridden by Ben Curtis.
00:14:11That's a good story there. Ben Curtis just came over from England and is having a great initial run in the United States.
00:14:17Second in the Louisiana Derby behind Catching Freedom, not particularly fast.
00:14:22He was unable to win either the Risen Star or the Louisiana Derby.
00:14:26It's just on paper, you can tell that he's just not as good as the top five or six horses in this race.
00:14:32I'm not expecting much from him.
00:14:34I think he's got a big shot to land in the Super Factor. I really do.
00:14:38I mean, when I talked about Catching Freedom being last early behind a modest pace in the Louisiana Derby,
00:14:44Honor Marie was right back there with him next to last.
00:14:47And Catching Freedom went by Honor Marie, but Honor Marie followed him at that point.
00:14:51And they pretty much kept up with him all through the final three-eighths of a mile or so.
00:14:56Catching Freedom beat Honor Marie by a length. Honor Marie has trained very well at Churchill Downs.
00:15:01He loves the Churchill Downs Strip.
00:15:03He showed that as a two-year-old when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club in very eye-catching fashion.
00:15:08If you go back and watch that video.
00:15:10So, yeah, I think from off the pace, I think Honor Marie has a really good chance to,
00:15:15with a pretty lively pace in front of him, to finish third or fourth.
00:15:20Huge shot. I mean, his work over the Churchill Downs Strip was good.
00:15:25You want to look at a good work, 59-1, fastest of 111 that day for Whit Beckman,
00:15:32who worked for many, many years for not only Chad Brown, but also Todd Pletcher.
00:15:37Ben Curtis knows his way around a racetrack, fourth leading rider at Fairgrounds.
00:15:42He won over a thousand races in England.
00:15:44Good man on a horse, can ride a very, very smart race.
00:15:48This is a must-use.
00:15:50Wow. A lot of love for Honor Marie there.
00:15:52I'll have to give a second look at him and see if I can come around and believe in him like my two colleagues do.
00:15:57All right. The eight horse is just a touch.
00:15:59It was 10-1 in the morning line. We talked about him a little bit last week.
00:16:03Both Randy and I thought that he was one of the more live long shots.
00:16:0810-1 is not necessarily the rich strike category or mind that bird, but he'll be 10-1, 8-1, something like that.
00:16:17And Randy, you've talked a lot about this, is that with these horses having so few starts coming in to the Kentucky Derby,
00:16:24you more have to project what they're going to do going forward than look at what they've already done.
00:16:30And this is a perfect example of this. He's only run three times.
00:16:34He's only won once, but he seems to be on the improve each time.
00:16:38He gave Sierra Leone a little bit of a fight in the bluegrass last time out.
00:16:42Got a decent figure, 96 buyer. He's got to run better.
00:16:46But this is a horse that I could definitely see being the one that jumps up by the five lengths that you need to do to be in the Kentucky Derby.
00:16:56So he will be on my exact and trifecta tickets, no doubt about it.
00:17:00I'm expecting a big race from him.
00:17:02It's not just the horse players. They're still learning about horses like just touch and still trying to figure out where the upper part of their, you know, their talents are.
00:17:12Right. How much they can improve, whether they can handle being put in certain positions during a race that they've never been in before.
00:17:20It's not just us. Trainers don't know it. Jockeys don't know it. No one knows.
00:17:24Right. It's all subjective. And just a touch is a perfect example of this.
00:17:28I think they thought in the bluegrass stakes, he had a chance to control the early pace.
00:17:32They wanted to send him to the lead. They didn't expect top Connor to blast off like he did from the Chad Brown barn.
00:17:38And they wound up being engaged in a much faster pace than they had hoped.
00:17:43And just a touch weakened in the last part of the bluegrass stakes.
00:17:46I think he'll be written differently in the Kentucky Derby, especially now that you look at the race on paper.
00:17:52And you see Dornick from post one and, you know, track phantoms in there.
00:17:55I don't think they feel like just a touch can do can do his best running, being right up there in the mix on what's going to be a lively pace.
00:18:03I think we're going to try to ease him back, maybe fourth, fifth, get into rate.
00:18:07Right. Trust that justified blood going a mile and a quarter and see if he can win from that position.
00:18:14Can he? We haven't seen him in that position. We don't know if he'll be able to handle it or not.
00:18:20But he definitely ran an excellent race in the bluegrass stakes.
00:18:23And I think he's one of the top four contenders in the Kentucky Derby.
00:18:27Yeah, that he did. He's on a lot of people's minds just to touch.
00:18:30But I'm not sure we've ever seen a derby in which trying to teach a horse how to rate has actually worked in the Kentucky Derby.
00:18:39We know one thing about flow is that he will lean forward on the horse.
00:18:42And that's one of his biggest attributes is that flow goes forward.
00:18:46So he's going to be part of a big mix on a big day with a big crowd.
00:18:52I just don't know. The jury is out for me.
00:18:55Number nine is Encino, 20 to one.
00:18:58Another Brad Cox trainee ridden by Axel Concepcion.
00:19:02And this is a horse who, after running three straight races on the synthetic surface, look better on the main track, winning the Lexington.
00:19:09Got a nice 94 buyer or two on the thoroughbred sheets.
00:19:12But obviously he's going to have to improve off that.
00:19:15That was not a real salty race by any stretch of the imagination.
00:19:21Could go to the lead. He went to the lead in the Lexington.
00:19:23He went to the lead in his maiden win.
00:19:25But in the Battaglia, he rated it was fifth, sixth, fourth, second, and then got the win.
00:19:31So I'm not really sure what his running style is.
00:19:33I would think that Brad Cox can look at the race and decide that there's enough speed in here that we better not get caught up in the early lead.
00:19:41So, you know, a horse, if he hits the board, I'm not surprised just because that's how much confidence I have in Brad Cox.
00:19:48But we shall see. Won't be my main pick, obviously.
00:19:51Yeah. If you were to pick like maybe the top three or four horses in the Kentucky Derby based on how they've been training only,
00:19:58you knew nothing about them on paper, Encino would be one of those horses at the very top of the list.
00:20:03Training exceptionally well. Big, huge, beautiful horse.
00:20:09The kind of horse that, you know, you would look at and think, wow, this is a derby horse.
00:20:13Whether he's, is he good enough on paper? No.
00:20:17Do we know, you know, how much he might improve? What the, you know, what the upper limit is? No.
00:20:24So he's one of those horses you'd have to have faith in Brad Cox and have faith that the horse is going to take a big step forward based on the way he's been training.
00:20:32And you went gate to wire in his last race, his first start on dirt.
00:20:35He purely just raced on synthetic. So if he's not on the lead, has he been schooled behind five, ten other horses?
00:20:43How is he going to handle that? I mean, that is my biggest worry about him is that he's he's never had that kind of kickback in his face.
00:20:52And the Lexington was not the place to try to teach him because he was the only real speed in the race.
00:20:58They thought they could control the pace.
00:21:00They needed the points to make sure that they could get into the Kentucky Derby.
00:21:04And that wasn't the time to be experimenting with taking him back off the lead.
00:21:07So we don't know. I'm not sure he's fast enough to make the early lead anyway.
00:21:17So I think they're going to be forced to try to get it back off the pace a little bit.
00:21:22All right. Well, we always want to see what Randy Moss thinks of the Japanese horses,
00:21:26because he was the president of the Dermis Sotogaki fan club in the Minnesota chapter last year and didn't run so well in the Derby.
00:21:36Ran great in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:21:39So he was not any he was not a bust by no means.
00:21:44But the first of the two Japanese horses is number 10, Tio Password.
00:21:49You know, this is the mystery horse in the race. We know absolutely nothing about him, but he's only run twice in his life.
00:21:54And he won last time out by a head at 13 to one in a stake at a racetrack in Japan.
00:22:02I'm not going to be someone to throw out all the Japanese horses all the time, even though they've sunk in the Derby.
00:22:09But this horse is a complete throw out.
00:22:13Oh, he's got a winning half brother, several winning half brothers.
00:22:16In fact, just yesterday, his half brother won a grade one over there in Japan, a group one T.O. Royal is his name.
00:22:25So this has come from winning family.
00:22:28He'll obviously be fit enough as they all are.
00:22:31But the jury is out. I commend them for coming over.
00:22:35He is the pace X factor in here, guys, because both of his races in Japan were won in wire to wire fashion.
00:22:42They believe that's how he runs his best races.
00:22:45There's no doubt in my mind that he's going to be sent aggressively from the starting gate to try to get the early lead.
00:22:52The only question is, is he fast enough? Is he fast enough to be part of a lively pace?
00:22:57Yeah, we don't we don't know.
00:23:00Yeah, I don't think so.
00:23:02All right. So those are half the field. We went through Derby horses one through 10.
00:23:06After these messages, we'll be back and we'll round out the rest of the Derby field, which, of course, includes the favorite fierceness.
00:23:13The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:23:16Keeneland's twenty twenty four spring meet concluded Friday with an all sources wagering exceeding two hundred and eighteen million.
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00:23:45I've been to Keeneland. I know exactly what they're talking about.
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00:23:57And Jon Stewart, no surprise here.
00:23:59His Resolute Racing was the stable's leading buyer, spending one point one seven two million dollars for four horses.
00:24:07We do want to remind you, Jon Stewart, that entries for the September yearling sale are now open.
00:24:13The sale will start Monday, September the 9th, and the entry deadline is May the 1st.
00:24:18We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:24:23When the spring meet ends, summer success begins.
00:24:27Buy. Sell. Fresh winners. Hot prospects.
00:24:33One night. One chance. Finish strong.
00:24:38Don't miss out. The Keeneland April selected horses of racing a sale.
00:24:44Friday, April 26th.
00:24:52Go.
00:25:22The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by Pleasant Acres Stallions in Ocala, Florida.
00:25:27New to Pleasant Acres this year is the first year stallion Verifying.
00:25:31Not only is Verifying by the Triple Crown winner Justify the most exciting young sire in the world.
00:25:38We'll hear from Emma Berry a little bit later on.
00:25:40But he's also the half brother to the Eclipse Award winning champion Midnight Bisou.
00:25:45All sound familiar? Well, it should.
00:25:48Verify is the only son of Justify standing in Florida.
00:25:52He was a $775,000 Keeneland September yearling.
00:25:56He broke his maiden at first asking in his first start for trainer Brad Cox at Saratoga.
00:26:02He was third in the Grade 1 Champagne in just his second start.
00:26:06The winner of the Indiana Derby.
00:26:08He was second in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and the Grade 1 Alan Jerkins Memorial Stakes.
00:26:14Verifying stands his first season at Pleasant Acres in Florida for a mere $10,000.
00:26:22And this week's fastest horse of the week is brought to you by Nashville.
00:26:26One of those fast sires at one start farm.
00:26:28Will Nashville pass along that blazing speed to his offspring?
00:26:32Well, the earliest results are encouraging.
00:26:36This is a 46-day-old filly out of Della Frost.
00:26:40Culled in January.
00:26:42A 21-day-old Candy Apple Red Culled.
00:26:46And a filly out of the mare Kensho.
00:26:49This is taken when the filly was just 24 days old.
00:26:53Reminder, Nashville is a track record holder.
00:26:56Or is a track record holder.
00:26:58At Keeneland, 6.1 to 107.89.
00:27:01Earlier on that Breeders' Cup car faster than the Breeders' Cup sprint.
00:27:04He was also a TDM Rising Star in his debut.
00:27:07Covered a full book of mares in his second year at stud 2024.
00:27:11And stands at one start for $15,000.
00:27:15Fastest horse of the week.
00:27:16A name we're all very familiar with.
00:27:18From Saturday at Santa Anita.
00:27:20From the Cone of Gold Stakes.
00:27:23A sprint stakes for open company.
00:27:25That would be the Chosen Bride.
00:27:27Getting his 16th career stakes win.
00:27:31Fire speed figure 102.
00:27:34The Chosen Bride just keeps on keeping on.
00:27:38Fastest horse of the week again.
00:27:45Well now let's go look through the second half of the field.
00:27:47Starting with number 11, Forever Young at 10 to 1.
00:27:50He is the better quote unquote of the two Japanese horses.
00:27:54Obviously he's got a lot of talent.
00:27:56He's 5 for 5.
00:27:57He won the Saudi Derby and won the UAE Derby before coming over here.
00:28:01Randy, I'll start with you on this one.
00:28:03Because we kid you about Dermis Otagaki.
00:28:05But you had a lot of reasons for picking him.
00:28:08How do you compare this horse to Dermis Otagaki?
00:28:10And do you like him a little bit?
00:28:15Yeah, I think they're comparable.
00:28:20We could talk for 30 minutes about Forever Young.
00:28:22I'll be very quick, fast paced, concise.
00:28:26Forever Young is 5 for 5.
00:28:28He's won at five different racetracks.
00:28:30He went wide on both turns to win the UAE Derby.
00:28:33You can think of buyer speed figures roughly.
00:28:36You can think of both of those races, Saudi Derby, UAE Derby, as about a 101.
00:28:40Especially if you consider ground loss and things like that.
00:28:43So he fits with the Kentucky Derby horses on what we've seen on paper.
00:28:46He can be close to the lead.
00:28:48He can be from off the pace.
00:28:49Here's what I'm concerned about.
00:28:51After he won the UAE Derby, the trainer publicly said
00:28:55that in his trip from Japan to Saudi Arabia, he did not handle the travel well.
00:29:00That was 5,000 plus miles.
00:29:02This was 7,000 miles from Dubai to Europe, layover, short layover.
00:29:10Europe to Chicago, 42-day quarantine on a van.
00:29:15Chicago, five and a half, six hours to Louisville.
00:29:18If he didn't handle the travel well from Japan to Saudi Arabia,
00:29:22and he didn't really come with that until after Dubai.
00:29:24So, you know, you didn't know that, you know, how he handled the travel to Churchill Mounds.
00:29:29Secondly, the trainer seems to be obsessed with kickback.
00:29:34And I've gone back and looked at every one of these horses' races,
00:29:36and he took a significant amount of kickback in a couple of those.
00:29:39One of them he didn't break, and he was back in the back on the inside and took a shower of kickback.
00:29:44Now, was the kickback in Japan the same as the kickback in the United States?
00:29:49I don't know, but they seem obsessed with keeping him out of kickback.
00:29:52If they try to do that in the Kentucky Derby, he's screwed because he'll be too wide.
00:29:57Yeah, you know, he's going to get kickback probably.
00:30:00How's he going to handle it?
00:30:01The trainer's not a dummy.
00:30:02I mean, he's the same trainer that won with Love's Only You and March Lorraine in the Breeders' Cup a few years ago.
00:30:08Everybody was hailing him as a genius.
00:30:10If he thinks the horse doesn't handle kickback well, there's got to be a reason why he feels that way.
00:30:15So those are the big concerns that I have if I'm forever young.
00:30:20Talent-wise, I think he fits right with all the ones, except fierceness, if he runs his four-wheeler kickback.
00:30:27He's a progressive kind of horse.
00:30:29I'll say that.
00:30:30Each of his every starts, he's got better.
00:30:32He switched leads on cue last time.
00:30:34He took a little bit of kickback.
00:30:36It seems like he's going the right way.
00:30:38He already practiced all his traveling, so maybe this time it'll be a little bit better.
00:30:43He'll be a bit more used to it.
00:30:45He had all those days in Chicago with the quarantine to get over if he'd had any problem with the travel from Japan over to Chicago.
00:30:53He's arrived at Churchill Downs.
00:30:55I think he's looked really, really good on the track.
00:30:58If you follow the rag numbers, his numbers are right there.
00:31:02Sierra Leone, forever young, and fierceness are the top three on rag numbers.
00:31:07So if you're going by that and the fact he's a progressive kind of horse, you have to use him.
00:31:12You have to use him.
00:31:13One thing's for sure.
00:31:14Distance is not going to be a problem for him.
00:31:16Fitness is not going to be a problem for him.
00:31:18I have a question.
00:31:20So you've seen the rag numbers.
00:31:22I haven't.
00:31:23Were those, you mentioned Sierra Leone, forever young, fierceness.
00:31:27Yeah, I don't have them all in front of me.
00:31:30What was the top rag number?
00:31:32Fierceness.
00:31:33Okay, okay.
00:31:34Fierceness.
00:31:35I was going to throw a big flag on Ragazin if they didn't have fierceness.
00:31:38Fierceness, yeah.
00:31:39Sierra Leone and him, yeah.
00:31:42Those are like the standouts.
00:31:45Okay.
00:31:46Well, I'm not as enthusiastic because of the overall very poor record of Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby.
00:31:53Don't win it someday, but you can have this horse.
00:31:58I can't get excited about any horse coming out of Japan until they prove they can overcome some of the obstacles that you guys brought up.
00:32:05Okay, number 12 is Track Phantom.
00:32:0720 to 1 on the morning line.
00:32:08Steve Asmussen looking for his first ever Kentucky Derby win.
00:32:12I don't like this horse.
00:32:14I don't think he can go a mile and a quarter.
00:32:16He's struggled in all his races beyond a mile and a sixteenth.
00:32:19Having said that, he's going to play a huge factor in this race because he is definitely going to go for the lead.
00:32:26I mean, this is a horse with only one way of going.
00:32:29He goes out front.
00:32:30He draws inside of fierceness.
00:32:32We'll get back to that when we talk about fierceness.
00:32:34I still think that the fierceness camp is also going to have to go for the lead and try to duplicate the effort he had in the Florida Derby, where I think the strategy was this horse doesn't like to get in trouble.
00:32:47So, the best way to keep him out of trouble is just go right to the lead.
00:32:50Track Phantom is going to set the pace.
00:32:53And if Doorknock goes after him, if fierceness goes after him and maybe a few others, that's going to have a big impact on the race.
00:33:01And I just thought this is a good horse.
00:33:03I mean, he could be a Haskell winner, for instance, you know, and a more speed conducive racetrack and a mile and eight.
00:33:09I don't I don't think he's a good fit for this Derby, though.
00:33:12Forty six and four over under opening half mile.
00:33:18I'd say under.
00:33:20I think it's pretty accurate.
00:33:22Forty six and three.
00:33:23Forty six and four.
00:33:24I think it's pretty good.
00:33:25Just under.
00:33:26Just under.
00:33:27OK, I'm going to say forty six and four.
00:33:28Hey, he's got he's got the blinkers on.
00:33:30Has that ever worked in the Kentucky Derby blinkers on in a race of 20 horses and one hundred and fifty thousand lubricated screaming fans?
00:33:39I'm not going to argue with trainer Steve Asmussen because maybe it'll help.
00:33:43Some horses just need focus so they don't see the guy throwing a beer can at him.
00:33:47So maybe the blinkers are going to help this horse focus in that way and not so much for speed that I'm not arguing with Steve Asmussen.
00:33:55No way.
00:33:58I don't know if Bombay Duck had blinkers on or not when he got hit with a beer can in 1975.
00:34:06He sure felt it, though.
00:34:07I know that.
00:34:10So, look, I mean, to me, the post position draw indirectly impacted Track Phantom as much as any other horse.
00:34:18McGornick drew post position number one.
00:34:20And now Danny Bergen is absolutely committed to going for the lead.
00:34:23Steve Asmussen swears that the only reason Track Phantom has been on the lead is just because he's been a faster horse than the others,
00:34:30that he doesn't have to be on the lead, that he can sit off the pace nicely and that the plan is not to go to the lead, despite the fact that he's got blinkers on.
00:34:37We don't know if Track Phantom can run as well sitting second length, you know, just off the outside hip of of Gornick.
00:34:46He has run head and head before and went on to win some of his earlier races.
00:34:52But I also feel I share your concern about the mile and a quarter.
00:34:58I share the concern that in this particular situation, the pace might be a little too quick for him.
00:35:06He's never shown that he can beat horses like this sitting a little bit off the pace.
00:35:12And I'm not sure he's fast enough.
00:35:14So I'm not going to put him in any of my.
00:35:18All right, we move on now to West Saratoga, the 13 horse at 50 to one, beautiful, nice story, a very nice man.
00:35:26And Larry Demert came out of the Bahamas, become a trainer here in America, real small time stable.
00:35:32They bought this horse for eleven thousand dollars.
00:35:34And oh, yeah, the poor trainer is fighting a brilliant battle in a valiant battle against cancer.
00:35:40I mean, if this horse wins Saturday, it won't be a dry eye in the place.
00:35:44But he's 50 to one. He's not good enough.
00:35:46I'd love to see the story happen, but it's not going to happen Saturday.
00:35:51No, you can't blame them for running. He's got the points to get in.
00:35:54And so it's a once in a lifetime, literally opportunity for these guys.
00:35:59Hope he runs well. I would love to see him get a check, you know, run fifth or something like that.
00:36:05And, you know, prove to them that he was worthy and that he belongs.
00:36:10And they can walk out with their head held high.
00:36:12That's what I'm hoping for on paper. He's really up against it.
00:36:15Horse racing is all about stories, right? We tried to get Larry Demert on last week.
00:36:20He was having his chemo. So unfortunately, we did not get him on.
00:36:24But Larry's a dear friend of mine. They say 70 something. He won't reveal his age.
00:36:30I've known Larry as long as I've been in the States. He might be a little older.
00:36:35He's got the most infectious smile. He is one of the best guys, best stories in horse racing.
00:36:41If you ever see him without a smile, it's absolutely impossible.
00:36:45He is just a true old school horseman. Now that horse will work and he'll work fast.
00:36:51He's a tough, good looking horse who gets Raphael Beirano aboard him.
00:36:56And I'm wishing him all the best. Is he good enough on paper? Probably not.
00:37:00But this is a story you're going to want to follow. When you hear Larry laugh,
00:37:04Randy, I don't know if you've done the feature with Larry already,
00:37:07but he has one of the most infectious laughs that you'll ever hear in your lifetime.
00:37:13So I am rooting for my good friend, Larry Demert. And hey, if Eric Reid can do it,
00:37:18Larry Demert can do it. We were all stabled where is now heralded ground at Keenan.
00:37:25Back in the day, those bottom barns down below the training track.
00:37:29No one wanted to stay down there. It was all the gyps that were down there.
00:37:32They shoved everyone down there and the dolphin and the top pledges wanted to be up top.
00:37:37We were all down in the bottom. I was working for Chris Specker.
00:37:41Eric Reid was on one side and Larry Demert had five or six down at the end of our shed row.
00:37:46And we were all in the same shed row. It would be just a monumental story.
00:37:51And the training center at Keeneland would go absolutely nuts. It's a brilliant story.
00:37:56You'll see and hear that infectious laugh on NBC on Saturday.
00:38:00I look forward to watching that. Yeah. What a neat guy and what a neat story that would be.
00:38:0414 is endlessly at 30 to one in the morning line. And there is this huge question on him.
00:38:10He's never run on dirt. And originally, after he won the J.R. Stakes,
00:38:14trainer Michael McCarthy was saying he was not going to run in the Kentucky Derby.
00:38:18He wanted to run in one of the big grass races on the Derby undercard,
00:38:22which where he would have been a bigger fit. But the trainers, the Ammerman family,
00:38:27it looks like they overruled him and said that he was going to Derby.
00:38:30Again, just like Zoe said with West Saratoga, you can't blame them.
00:38:34You know, things happen. Is there one chance in the world to win the Kentucky Derby?
00:38:39If Rick Strike can do it, if my network can do it, that means, you know,
00:38:43other horses that are long shots can pull this off.
00:38:46But my problem with him is not necessarily the dirt. My problem is he's not fast enough.
00:38:52And he's been taking a monumental jump up in class from the J.R. Stakes and the El Camino Derby.
00:38:59And, you know, would be a neat story, but I don't see it at all.
00:39:04Yeah, I mean, the Ammerman's, the owners, John Ammerman, his wife, Jerry,
00:39:08have been in the business for roughly 30 years.
00:39:10They've had a lot of really top class horses, including Oscar Performance, the sire of this horse.
00:39:15They've never been in the Kentucky Derby. And so this might be, you know, they're getting up there.
00:39:21Who knows? This might be their only chance to run in the Derby.
00:39:24So you can see why they might have sort of overruled Michael McCarthy to give this horse a chance.
00:39:29The horse has not trained brilliantly on dirt.
00:39:33Does that mean that he will run a lackluster race on dirt?
00:39:39Probably. He's got a grass pedigree, top and bottom.
00:39:42But we don't know that, right?
00:39:44Maybe he's just the horse, the type of horse that just doesn't put out much in the mornings
00:39:50and saves his best races for the afternoon.
00:39:52Maybe that's why in the morning when they've trained him on dirt his entire career, he just hasn't shown that much.
00:39:58Is that enough to pin your hat on to bet on him?
00:40:01Probably not. But he was an eye catching winner of the Jeff Ruby.
00:40:07He was very visually impressive winning that race.
00:40:10He really was. And Wes Saratoga was right behind him.
00:40:13So we're talking about two long shots running here.
00:40:16And I can't blame the Ammerman's. They've put a lot of money in.
00:40:19It's been a long time breeding operation. It's a homebred for them.
00:40:23Oscar Performance, his runners are running lights out, but they're doing it on the grass.
00:40:27So why not give it a shot? You're getting Umbi Rispoli.
00:40:30He was very happy with the work. He flew and worked him.
00:40:34Towards the end of the work, perhaps when he was coming off the bridle, you could see that little bit of turfy action.
00:40:40But hey, if there's any racetrack in North America that's quite turf friendly to turf runners,
00:40:47it's actually Churchill Downs. When you consider some of the winners of the Kentucky Derby,
00:40:52I'm thinking many Animal Kingdom, Big Brown that have that big action.
00:40:56So it's not beyond the realms of possibility. Am I going to gamble on him?
00:41:01No, but I can't blame them for trying.
00:41:04No, you certainly can't. All right. Let's get to number 15 domestic product.
00:41:09You have that magical combination of Chad Brown and Iraud Ortiz.
00:41:13And I've heard some whispers. Some people are talking this horse up a little bit.
00:41:19It's Zoe's turn, but I'm going to go to Randy first on this one, because Randy, this is the slowest horse in the race, is he not?
00:41:26Pretty much. I mean, we don't really know how good he is because he comes out of a couple of really slow paced races that impacted the final time.
00:41:36So it really becomes almost a situation where all the numbers you see on this horse,
00:41:42regardless of whether you're looking at Byers, Theragraff, Ragusen or whatever, they're all educated guesses because in pace, you can't look at the final time.
00:41:51He is a big, good looking horse. He worked very well against Sierra Leone.
00:41:56In fact, I thought he worked as good as Sierra Leone, if not better, working against him in company.
00:42:03Yeah, Chad Brown's talking him up for what that means.
00:42:07Trainers talk up their horses, so that probably doesn't mean anything.
00:42:11I can't bet him on paper, but I wouldn't necessarily, if he were to be part of the Super Effecta, I wouldn't be shocked,
00:42:20because he does look so good and he's training well and his past performances are murky enough that we really don't know how good he is.
00:42:30Super, super live, in my opinion. His works have been absolutely terrific.
00:42:36He sat close to a slow, slow pace in his very last race and closed resolutely.
00:42:44That was just his second start without the blinkers.
00:42:46It's been a learning progress for him because he was very, very, very rank in his starts with the blinkers on.
00:42:53You can see in his works, he still wants to get it on, partly the reason they had him on the outside of Sierra Leone.
00:42:59Sierra Leone needs to be pushed along. He's like, he'll only do as much as you ask.
00:43:03That's why he wears the blinkers with that big glop in stride.
00:43:07But domestic product has the ability to stop and start.
00:43:11If he gets into trouble, he's nimble. He's cat-like.
00:43:14I don't think it's going to be a problem for him.
00:43:17And he can be part of a little bit of jostle.
00:43:20I can see a little bit more seasoning each and every time I look at him.
00:43:25I really, really like him and I am using him for sure.
00:43:29All right. Good call.
00:43:30But Zoe Cabot putting the 30 to one shot in on her picks.
00:43:35And she makes some very good points about why.
00:43:37All right. 16 gram low. The first is 50 to one rather than shooing up two, three minutes in the source.
00:43:45Anybody have anything nice to say about him?
00:43:48Got beat by fierceness.
00:43:50I mean, he was third in the Florida Derby.
00:43:54Yeah. Well, I mean, there's this one by 13, in fairness.
00:43:58So, I mean, anyone else that runs behind him is going to get beat at least 13 lengths.
00:44:04I wish I owned him. He's going to make a nice little piece of money right in his career.
00:44:11Is this the right spot to win the Kentucky Derby?
00:44:17No, not on paper. Can I play him? No.
00:44:21You know, it's funny you say that. Now I'm thinking, can't you see him being an Ohio Derby horse?
00:44:27Something like that. Or a West Virginia Derby horse.
00:44:30That's where he would. And if he wins those, he'll make a ton of money for his connections.
00:44:34A full crop of what? Eighteen thousand. And he's one of 20 to get there.
00:44:39That's a pretty amazing accomplishment.
00:44:42Congratulations to them that they got him into the Kentucky Derby.
00:44:47Very good. All right. So let's go to the favorite now.
00:44:49Fierceness, the 17 post at five to two in the morning line. I'm not on him.
00:44:55His race in the Florida Derby was great, but he had everything his own way.
00:45:01John Velasquez wrote a masterful race, getting him to the front right out of the gate, slowing the pace down.
00:45:07And again, since really sort of second rate competition, he just blew the doors off the horses in the stretch.
00:45:13We all know about this horse's tendency to pack it in if he gets in any trouble.
00:45:18I think he's going to get caught up in a fast pace. Maybe he won't try for the lead.
00:45:23But I think he's going to be he's got to be at least second or third early.
00:45:26I think that with the way, especially with door not getting the one hole.
00:45:30And it's interesting you say they say track fandom is not going to go for the lead.
00:45:33I'll believe that when I see it. But he's going to have a much tougher, you know,
00:45:39extraordinarily more tough trip in the Kentucky Derby than he did in the Florida Derby.
00:45:45And he is so far as shown that he's a horse that can't handle adversity.
00:45:51If I thought he could get to the lead and get there by himself in a comfortable pace, I would think the horse would win for fun.
00:45:57But I just can't see him getting the kind of trip he needs to win this race.
00:46:03You saw him in the Breeders' Cup juvenile. Yeah, it was second outside of another horse.
00:46:10You were impressed, right? You saw him in the Holy Bowl where he stunk, right?
00:46:14Yeah. Yeah. But here's the thing about fear for Nick.
00:46:17No, if he gets pinballed and if he gets sideswiped and he gets bumped around at the start of the Kentucky Derby, he's probably not going to win.
00:46:26But you could have said that about authentic about California Chrome, about Big Brown, about always dreaming about a lot of the horses in the Kentucky Derby this year.
00:46:35If they get pinballed at the start, if they get knocked around at the start, they're probably not going to win.
00:46:40It's not just fierceness. Right. So in this look, to me, the prototype for the kind of trip that they want would be John Velasquez on authentic in the 2020 Kentucky Derby from an outside post.
00:46:57Let him break hopefully cleanly. Don't send him. Let him use his natural speed.
00:47:02Let him get to the first turn. You're not sending him. You're conserving energy. You're not turning him on.
00:47:08And then look inside you and kind of survey what the situation is.
00:47:12I think the I think the best case scenario, and this would be to me a great scenario for fierceness would be door knock on the lead track fan on three quarters of a length.
00:47:24One way, just outside of a fairly swift pace and sitting right outside of them, maybe about a week and a half behind them.
00:47:31And I think he has shown in the Breeders Cup.
00:47:35He can handle that kind of trip just fine.
00:47:38And if he gets that kind of trip turning into the backstretch of the Kentucky Derby, in my opinion, he's a winner.
00:47:46And bottom line to me, I'm not going to overthink this.
00:47:51If all the horses in the race run to their maximum potential, here's his.
00:47:57I really think solidly the best horse in the field.
00:48:03I think if if he gets that kind of trip and he runs roughly the same kind of race he ran in the Florida Derby, maybe a few points slower,
00:48:11then OK, he beats Sierra Leone by four instead of a huge margin in the Florida Derby.
00:48:19But, you know, I'm not going to overthink.
00:48:23Well, you got someone digging a grave in your like front room there.
00:48:27It's like it doesn't.
00:48:30That's me here at Triple L. We have the NBC guys were setting up outside the trailer.
00:48:36There you go.
00:48:42All right.
00:48:43Hold on.
00:48:46He's digging Fierce's grave.
00:48:51So we have to get this yet, right?
00:48:54Yes. This is the best horse in the race on numbers, on everything.
00:48:58If he shows up now, if you go back to that, that holy bull, another tug for domestic product to actually beat fierceness in there,
00:49:06just putting that one in right now. But at least he was third that day.
00:49:11And fierceness, I think, is growing up, which is what we want to see.
00:49:15If I'm Johnny V and I'm riding him, I'm absolutely freaking delighted that I'm in the 17 pole because he can break from the outside.
00:49:24He's got no pressure to his outside. He's not going to get smushed.
00:49:27If they come out, he can go out. It's an absolutely perfect scenario.
00:49:32It's got a quarter of a mile to go until that first turn.
00:49:37Johnny V is going to be in the 17 hole and drop over and just look down to the inside and see who's going 21 and change and be like,
00:49:46he probably won't care if he stays in the 17 hole around the first turn.
00:49:50He's just going to stay out there and let fierceness think he's in his own little world.
00:49:55He's all on his own out in the middle of the racetrack.
00:49:58Nobody can get to you, son. Give him a nice little pet.
00:50:01And it's just like a morning work. And that's it.
00:50:05If he gets that kind of trip, he wins for sure. He wins for sure.
00:50:10Unless they keep him in the 17 hole around the first turn.
00:50:14He might just be that good, Randy. He might just be that good.
00:50:20Yeah, if he gets that kind of trip, he absolutely wins.
00:50:23You know, my biggest concern is that Sierra Leone may just come lumbering down the lane and tank him right in the last jump.
00:50:31But he's going to be there till the end.
00:50:33It's not for me going to be a first or last scenario because everyone's like, oh, he's not first.
00:50:38He's last. I'm not buying that this year. Not with fierceness.
00:50:42If he's not first, he can be second or third.
00:50:45If he's 17 wide the whole way around, imagine the rags in a thoroughbred.
00:50:50Historic. All right. So a little bit of difference of opinions on fierceness.
00:50:55Number 18 is stronghold, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby.
00:50:59He's 21 in the morning line.
00:51:01I have a story in today's TDN about Antonio Frasul, the jockey riding this horse who has just been going great since he came over a little more than a year ago to ride in in the US and is pretty much established himself as the second top rider behind Juan Hernandez in the Santa Anita standings.
00:51:18And now, what was that?
00:51:23That's fierceness dropping the mic when he crosses the wire.
00:51:27Hang on. Keep talking. I'm going to close this story.
00:51:29OK, but anyways, and we'll start with you, Zoe. I'm going to go back to the speed figures.
00:51:33Eighty nine, eighty nine, eighty five. You got horses in here like fierceness around 100.
00:51:40The Santa Anita Derby this year was one of the weaker versions of it.
00:51:43I don't think he's good enough for fast enough.
00:51:47On paper, no, he did. He did work very, very well at Churchill Downs.
00:51:52And I've got no no qualms about Frasul riding him, riding the Kentucky Derby for the first time.
00:51:57He is an excellent rider. It's again about the story for me with stronghold.
00:52:02He's out of spectator. She died foaling him and the owners, Rick and Sharon Waller.
00:52:09Now, Randi, you're probably going to get a chance to speak to Rick and Sharon.
00:52:13She is the most wonderful woman you'd ever want to meet. And she's funny.
00:52:18They did an interview with her after the Santa Anita Derby win.
00:52:22And the only thing they told her was you can't cuss. So she didn't really say anything.
00:52:26And she would be like me if you met her like on a on a Saturday evening.
00:52:30She will cuss like a sailor and you will have a fabulous conversation with her because she is a diehard horse racing fan.
00:52:38It's a homebred for them. It's just a really cool story.
00:52:42And I would love nothing than to see them when it would be really, really cool.
00:52:47Is he good enough? I don't think so. But he'll be there for as long as he can.
00:52:51It's a cool story that goes back, I guess, three generations of the female pedigree with the Wallers.
00:52:58I like I read somewhere. I don't know where I read it.
00:53:01That stronghold slow speed figure in the Santa Anita Derby could be attributed to him waiting on horses.
00:53:08And I think that's exactly a 180 degrees the opposite.
00:53:12I think the reason I don't think it was stronghold that was waiting on horses.
00:53:17I think it was the Baffert horse that he beat in that race.
00:53:21It was waiting on him. And that's why they went ahead and hit all the way to the wire.
00:53:25Stronghold one. Look, I just don't think he's fast enough.
00:53:29I don't. I think the speed figures are an accurate representation of how good stronghold is.
00:53:35Hey, you want the Santa Anita Derby? Awesome. Good for him. I'm not going to use it.
00:53:40Number 19 is resilience. The Wood Memorial winner, 21 in the morning line.
00:53:44Junior Alvarado takes over for John Velasquez for a trainer, Hall of Fame trainer.
00:53:48Bill Mott could say some of the same things we just said about stronghold.
00:53:52Well, first of all, we know that the Wood Memorial has just had a terrible time since 2000 producing top quality horses in the Kentucky Derby.
00:54:02The funny side ran in the wood, did not win it, but came back to win the Derby.
00:54:07There's this huge drought. And the reason why is that it's not it's fallen out of fallen behind the Bluegrass,
00:54:14the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby and the Santa Anita Derby, especially with a grade two ranking.
00:54:20Now, I mean, why would you go there when you could go to other more prestigious races and try to win that?
00:54:27It's a nice enough horse. But, you know, look back at his risen star where he was fourth behind Sierra Leone,
00:54:32Track Phantom and Catching Freedom, four horses that will be in the Kentucky Derby.
00:54:37I think he was fourth best that day. So how could I think that he's going to be able to beat not only those three,
00:54:42but everybody else in the Derby? Bill Mott is as good a trainer as there is.
00:54:47Well, he'll certainly have this horse ready for a big effort, but his very best I don't think will be good enough.
00:54:53Yeah, I don't think he'll, you know, he'll be embarrassed. I think he'll run a decent race.
00:54:57Bill Mott, as you said, is one of the very best in business and he'll have him clicking on on all cylinders.
00:55:04He'll get the maximum out of the horse. But look, the risen star is the key prep race of any of the prep races so far this year.
00:55:10We've seen that fourth in there, I think, is a pretty accurate representation of how good he is.
00:55:15They picked the wood because it was going to be a softer spot, the softest spot of all the preps.
00:55:20And it was. And he won because of that. Blinkers were on for that race.
00:55:24I don't think they made that big of a difference. I think he'll run decent.
00:55:29But again, like I've said, a lot of these other horses, I'm not going to use them.
00:55:34I'm in agreement. And Bill Mott's going to be on a high anyway after winning the Oaks the day before with Just FYI.
00:55:40Oh, Just FYI. How about that? All right. Now, last and kind of least is Society Men.
00:55:46Fifty to one in the morning line for trainer Danny Gargan. He ran second in the wood at one hundred and six to one.
00:55:55So he earned his way into the Kentucky Derby. But got a lot of things going wrong from the 20 post.
00:56:00The fact that, you know, he's not very fast either. But the big story is Frankie DeTore.
00:56:06Frankie DeTore can get this horse into the winner's circle. He's the greatest jockey in the history of mankind.
00:56:11I mean, he is really up against it, this horse. What is he? Is he a 50 to one shot?
00:56:17Yeah, he's a 50 to one shot. Again, you can't blame Reeves Sorebreds. They're very good people.
00:56:22They run a lot of horses at the top level. They want to be in the Derby.
00:56:25They got the horse in. Good for them. But, you know, he should not only not win.
00:56:30He should finish near the rear. We'll see what happens.
00:56:35I mean, Frankie's got a good opportunity to get a wide trip, but could avoid trouble.
00:56:42So is he good enough? No, probably not. But you're right.
00:56:46Frankie will be the greatest jockey of all time, should he win on Society Man.
00:56:52Yeah, look, Society Man is exhibit A for why I can't bet resilience, right?
00:56:56Because if you like resilience at all in the Kentucky Derby, then you kind of like Society Man a little bit.
00:57:01It just shows how weak the Wood Memorial Field was overall.
00:57:05And I agree with you. I think Society Man would be a good bet to finish in the bottom quarter of the field.
00:57:11All right, now I'm going to pin you guys down. I want your number one pick and your long shot pick.
00:57:17Sierra Leone. I'm praying for a dead heat with him and Fierceness, to be quite honest,
00:57:23because they are my top two with no questions asked and then domestic product.
00:57:28I do believe the Japanese horse is going to run very, very well forever young.
00:57:32OK. Randy? Fierceness and you're talking about a long shot. Honor Marie for me.
00:57:38Honor Marie. OK, very interesting. All right.
00:57:42What about you? Oh, yeah, duh. Sierra Leone and Just a Touch are my two plays.
00:57:49So Zoe, let's get Sierra Leone home and then next week we can be heroes for giving out the two of us giving out the Derby winner.
00:57:57It's going to be tough. This is going to be tough.
00:58:01And while we're talking about the Kentucky Derby weekend, the undercard on Friday and Saturday is spectacular.
00:58:09And it also has a Pennsylvania angle, right? The TDN Riders are brought to you by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Associations
00:58:16because Pennsylvania will be represented very admirably in the one million dollar Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic,
00:58:23the race before the Kentucky Derby with the Chad Brown trained.
00:58:26I'm very busy. It looks sensational when the Mervyn is in his last start at the fairgrounds.
00:58:33He'll be vying for favoritism with the Charlie Appleby trained Naval Power integration.
00:58:39But the Old Forester should be a fantastic race and I'm very busy, should be right in the middle of it.
00:58:45Meanwhile, this is 2024. So congratulations to Smarty Jones.
00:58:50It's the 20th anniversary this year of Smarty Jones's wins in the Kentucky Derby in Preakness and a near triple crown sweep.
00:58:58As smart as Smarty Jones is, I don't think he's really aware of this momentous anniversary,
00:59:04but I know everyone associated with him is and his fans are.
00:59:08So congratulations to all of you. And he's still around if you want to bring to him,
00:59:12if you want to bring to Smarty or any other PA Bread stallion, you can go to pabread.com.
00:59:17You can go to the 2024 Stallion Directory and you can become part of the fun and you can share in the Smarty Party 2024.
00:59:25For more information, again, www.pabread.com.
00:59:32The state of Pennsylvania has the best breeders program in the entire United States.
00:59:37When you buy a yearling, it's a little bit like buying a lottery ticket.
00:59:40And we are trying to provide the lottery ticket that the likelihood is to hit the jackpot.
00:59:45Angel of Empire wins the Arkansas Derby and wins it clear.
00:59:49I'm very busy raced away to win the Muniz Memorial Classic.
00:59:53We paid incentives of over 30 million last year to 376 different breeders.
00:59:58For more, go to pabread.com.
01:00:02Respect the law. He's earned it.
01:00:06A grade one winning juvenile.
01:00:08Tis the law. Pops the cork in the champagne.
01:00:11A classic winning three-year-old.
01:00:13Tis the law. He's going to win the first leg of the Triple Crown.
01:00:17Five triple digit buyers.
01:00:19Respect the law. Tis the law.
01:00:21The best son of Red Hot Sire Constitution.
01:00:25He's left the others behind. He's going to win the Run Happy Traverse.
01:00:29Tis the law.
01:00:32The TDN Writers Room is sponsored by the stallions at Coolmore.
01:00:36And this week, that stallion is Tis the Law.
01:00:39We've talked about him a lot lately on this podcast.
01:00:42His first two-year-olds will be racing this spring.
01:00:46At Tis the Law, Philly set a record for a quarter mile at OBS, stopping the clock in 21.
01:00:53Now, this is her working solo for Tom McCrocklin.
01:00:56She went on to sell to Michael Lund-Peterson for $1.9 million.
01:01:01I was there, and my exact comments on this work were WTF.
01:01:07Twenty and one.
01:01:10Tis the law won the Grade One Champagne, Florida Derby, Belmont Stakes,
01:01:14and is a Traverse winner by Constitution.
01:01:17He stands at Coolmore for a mere $20,000.
01:01:21And as we can see, Charlie O'Connor, as they like to say at Coolmore,
01:01:25call now or risk being arrested.
01:01:29I can't believe they put up that picture of Charlie.
01:01:33Charlie as a sheriff with a hat and a badge on is probably one of the funniest things
01:01:38I think I've ever seen on a Coolmore ad.
01:01:41So well done, Coolmore.
01:01:43And we want to remind you that the TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by The Green Group,
01:01:46a tax accounting and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry
01:01:50designed to save you taxes.
01:01:52Well, it's not just a big weekend in U.S. racing.
01:01:55It's a big weekend in Great Britain racing because they will run the 2000 Guineas on Saturday,
01:02:00the first leg of the English Triple Crown.
01:02:03And there's a huge story in there in City of Troy.
01:02:06He's a horse that people are just raving about.
01:02:09Huge potential.
01:02:11We bring in now Emma Berry, our European editor, to help us out with this.
01:02:14And Emma, the first thing I noticed was that this is a Triple Crown race,
01:02:18sort of then the equivalent of the Kentucky Derby as it's the first leg.
01:02:23City of Troy hasn't raced this year.
01:02:25Is that common that they'll bring horses into such a prestigious race without any sort of prep?
01:02:31Yes, it has become more common, certainly over the last decade or more in Europe,
01:02:36and especially for Brian O'Brien and Bally Doyle.
01:02:39He's a past master at getting these horses absolutely on song for their big race targets
01:02:44without us actually seeing them race in the spring.
01:02:48We saw him three times last year.
01:02:50He's unbeaten. He's a proven Group 1 winner.
01:02:53And, yeah, we've started to see some of his opponents for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday,
01:02:57but certainly not all.
01:02:59Second favourite, Rosalien, hasn't raced since last October either.
01:03:02And, you know, I think it's a lot more common now,
01:03:05especially with some of the biggest stables to, you know,
01:03:08have plenty of sort of testing gallops at home against horses of equal calibre.
01:03:13And, you know, they can find out where they are with them pretty well at home.
01:03:17It just leaves us guessing as to, you know, what we're going to see on Saturday.
01:03:22Being a son of Justify, what have you seen from the sons of Justify over in Europe?
01:03:28Because he's exploded over here and he's certainly exploded over there.
01:03:33Yeah, Justify was a real talking point here last season as well.
01:03:37He had the top rated juvenile colt in Europe.
01:03:41That was obviously City of Troy.
01:03:43He had the top rated juvenile filly in Opera Singer, who's actually missing the 1000 Guineas on Sunday.
01:03:49She's just had a small setback, but I think we'll see her in the Irish 1000 Guineas all being well.
01:03:53And he also had the top rated juvenile in France.
01:03:56That was another filly, Ramatuel.
01:03:58And she runs on Sunday in the 1000 Guineas.
01:04:01She's coming over from Chantilly and, you know, looking forward to seeing what she can do.
01:04:05So he's, you know, as well as in America, I think he's got runners in four classics this weekend coming,
01:04:12which is quite a feat for a young stallion.
01:04:15Well, City of Troy is obviously the worst to beat on paper.
01:04:18And anyone that's seen Bally Doyle can testify that Aidan O'Brien has every tool possible at his disposal to get horses ready after a layoff.
01:04:27Other than City of Troy, I mean, who are the horses that you think that you can pinpoint as the ones that are the biggest threats?
01:04:34I mean, as I mentioned, Rosalian's already another Group One winner.
01:04:38He's the son of Blue Point, another really exciting young stallion coming through.
01:04:43His stable mate, Hartem, won the major sort of Guineas trial two weeks ago, the Craven.
01:04:49He won it really emphatically.
01:04:51And I guess that will give his trainer, Richard Hannan, a good measure on where Rosalian is as well.
01:04:57Yeah, on everything we've seen so far, he's another really special horse.
01:05:02Ghost Rider's coming in without a trial as well.
01:05:04He won the Royal Lodge at Newmarket over course of distance last year.
01:05:07So, you know, he's perhaps a little under the radar coming into this race.
01:05:12But, you know, he's one that I think should be given some serious consideration.
01:05:18Along with, you know, there's an Alion Arby who was second to City of Troy as well in the Dewhurst last year.
01:05:24We saw him in a race course gallop recently, looking pretty good.
01:05:27He's the Shadwell runner. And yeah, they're probably kind of the leading contenders coming in for Saturday.
01:05:35So would I be crazy in thinking if I put a trifecta together with City of Troy?
01:05:42Now, in your opinion, can anybody beat him or is he just a sensation?
01:05:48Because I believe he's a sensation, but they're all beatable.
01:05:51So if I use City of Troy, Alion Arby, Ghost Rider and I like Knight Raider.
01:05:58Is that beyond the realms of possibility?
01:06:00I watch him have a gallop and he looked really, really good.
01:06:06Yeah, I think that's a good call on Knight Raider.
01:06:09He's a really interesting horse.
01:06:11He hasn't got the same high profile as the others, but he had one run back in last year and one well.
01:06:17We saw him again recently and he did the same.
01:06:20He's only run on the all weather so far, but he's got a very progressive profile.
01:06:25And it would be easy to see him running into a place.
01:06:29I'd like to think City of Troy is unbeatable.
01:06:32He's been the real talking horse of the end of last season all through the winter.
01:06:37He really does look special.
01:06:39I think they've already been talking about him.
01:06:43His connections have been talking about him straight after a two horse win and comparing him to,
01:06:48I think the words they use where he's our Frankel.
01:06:52We all remember what Frankel did on the early mile this time 13 years ago.
01:06:56And God, it would be lovely to think we could see another horse coming through of a similar caliber.
01:07:01I mean, it's dangerous to use words like, you know, Frankel in the same sentence as other horses,
01:07:06but we'll see what he can do.
01:07:08He, you know, he's odds on favorite and he does look really special on everything we've seen so far.
01:07:13Emma, I want to thank you for bringing us up to speed on the 2000 Guineas,
01:07:17which will be run this Saturday, the same day as the Kentucky Derby.
01:07:20And we'll take a look to see if City of Troy is indeed the superstar that many people think he is.
01:07:25Thanks so much for helping us out and we'll enjoy reading your coverage in the TVN.
01:07:29No problem. Pleasure.
01:07:31As the Green Group guest of the week, Emma Berry will receive a free one hour tax consultation with the Green Group.
01:07:37So Mr. Green needs to get up to speed on his English tax laws.
01:07:41I'm sure he knows already because he knows everything.
01:07:44For more information on how the Green Group can save you taxes,
01:07:47visit www.greenco.com.
01:07:50We'll be right back after this message from the Green Group.
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01:09:04Go.
01:09:32Earlier, I talked about Verifying, the son of Justify, the only one standing in Florida at Pleasant Acres.
01:09:40Here we have a son of Tap It to talk about.
01:09:42His name is Magic on Tap.
01:09:44I've seen a lot of Magic on Tap as he was out here with Hall of Fame at Bob Baffert.
01:09:48He was a $2.5 million in utero purchase by Jane Lyon when she bought Obie Kay in full to Tap It.
01:09:57That result was the gray Magic on Tap.
01:10:00Obie Kay was the winner of the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at Churchill and also hailed from a top female family.
01:10:07Magic on Tap won his first race for his owner breeder at Del Mar and went on to win the Grade 2 triple bend stakes at Santa Anita for his trainer, Bob Baffert.
01:10:17Magic on Tap is one of only two sons of Tap It in Florida and will see his first yearling sell this summer.
01:10:25He stands for a mere $5,000 at Pleasant Acres.
01:10:29Plenty of value there at Pleasant Acres with sons of Tap It and sons of Justify.
01:10:35This past weekend, I had the absolute pleasure of heading up to Golden Gate Fields for the last and final running of the San Francisco mile at where the Bay comes to play.
01:10:47I caught up with the winning connections and I could not be any happier for trainer Manny Badir and owner Ron Charles.
01:11:00It's Llamas, Llamas close to home and Llamas takes the San Francisco mile.
01:11:06Here with the winning connections Irving Orozco to my right and Manny Badir to my left and Manny, you may be one of the most popular winners that I think we've ever seen here.
01:11:16When this horse crossed the wire, everybody just yelled Manny.
01:11:20How are you feeling right now?
01:11:22I'm telling you, I don't even know what the feeling is like right now.
01:11:26This is something else.
01:11:27This horse has been taking us for a ride and this was the biggest ever race I've ever won right now and it's this horse.
01:11:34Irving, he's done a good job and I congratulate the owners, Ron Charles and Sam Gordon and my connections of the groom and exercise rider, just everybody all together.
01:11:45It's been a team effort.
01:11:46What has led to him becoming so good under your tutelage?
01:11:50Old age.
01:11:52I'm all for that.
01:11:53Like a fine wine.
01:11:54Working good for me.
01:11:55I like it.
01:11:56All right, Manny.
01:11:57Well, you've got one to saddle here.
01:11:59Congratulations.
01:12:00We are absolutely delighted for NorCal keeping it here with the home team here with the winning jockey Irving Orozco.
01:12:07He give you quite good props there.
01:12:09How do you feel after winning your first San Francisco mile?
01:12:12Well, I'm sort of speechless right now.
01:12:16Same as for Manny.
01:12:17It's the biggest race of my career.
01:12:20Shaking.
01:12:21Yeah.
01:12:22I just wanted to win it so bad.
01:12:25Growing up in California, this was a dream for me to win this race and to have it, you know, win it for the last time that's going to be run.
01:12:34It just was really good.
01:12:36I'm just so happy it worked out for us.
01:12:39We've been working with this horse for a few months.
01:12:42And finally, how is it working for Manny?
01:12:44Because he may be one of the most likable guys up here at Golden Gate Fields.
01:12:48It's amazing.
01:12:49We've won many races.
01:12:51We've won many races together.
01:12:54So hopefully it keeps it going.
01:12:58I love riding for him.
01:12:59And I'm sure we'll take some more pictures together.
01:13:02Congratulations.
01:13:03Thank you, Zoe.
01:13:13Many thanks to those guys for a lovely interview there.
01:13:17And it's hard to just imagine that Irving Orozco, this time last year, was in hospital with broken ribs and a punctured lung.
01:13:25So a fantastic ride for him aboard Llamas taking down the San Francisco Mile.
01:13:30I do want to remind you that not only do we have the Kentucky Derby coming up in Kentucky, but you can watch that live at Santa Anita.
01:13:38Santa Anita is racing will resume on Friday with a one o'clock post time Friday for the Oaks and Saturday for the Derby.
01:13:47Well, of course, the Kentucky Derby is far from the only show at Churchill Downs.
01:13:52What a tremendous card they put together for Derby week, including Friday, which, of course, is when they will run the Kentucky Oaks.
01:13:59And that's a race that has a lot of people interested.
01:14:03We have right here. Randy's the president of the Derby Sotagaki fan club.
01:14:08Zoe is the president of the Just FYI fan club.
01:14:12And she certainly looks like she's going to run a good race coming into it.
01:14:16But I like, you know, I like I like Torpedo Anna in here.
01:14:21This is a horse who showed a lot of promise last year when she won an allowance race at Churchill.
01:14:26Ran OK in the golden rod and then ran back to that big race when she got the eighty seven buyer back in November and just obliterated the field in the fantasy stakes.
01:14:36Ways and Means is also a horse that you got.
01:14:39I think you got to take a strong look at. This is a horse that showed tremendous promises.
01:14:43A two year old came back in his first start and her first start in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in twenty twenty three.
01:14:50Had a troubled trip, still ran second, beaten only a length.
01:14:53And being that that was only her first start of the year, she should definitely improve.
01:14:58Zoe, I'm I'm not a Just FYI fan.
01:15:01So you can. But I'm not making any bets on you because I know you'll beat me.
01:15:05So but anyways. So Zoe, what do you think? Just FYI?
01:15:10Absolutely. And she can win without you and Randy. In fact, that's probably better.
01:15:15She's certainly going to be fit enough.
01:15:18She's had three works in the last 10 days, her last work being just an easy half mile in forty nine and two.
01:15:24If you've not seen it, I implore you to go back and take a look at it.
01:15:28You want to talk about a filly in a hammer lock.
01:15:31Now, she really reminds me of Zenyatta.
01:15:34Initially, when I first started talking about her in March or February this year, I thought she'd filled out by some of the videos that I'd seen on XBTV.
01:15:44She hasn't. I ran into Bill Mott at the April sale and I pinned him down up against the rail of a barn.
01:15:51And I'm like, listen, Bill, I need to talk to you about Just FYI.
01:15:55I said, has she filled out? Does she eat a lot? Does she need more food? What's the deal?
01:16:00And he said she she eats as much as I can give her.
01:16:04He said she hasn't really quite filled out into that giant frame of hers.
01:16:08She's out of a street crime there since I'm thinking Zenyatta.
01:16:12She's just going to get better and better as she gets older.
01:16:16Her works have been great. She gets a good draw on the outside.
01:16:20She's my pick. In fact, I'm going to use the four out four horses on the outside.
01:16:24Just FYI, Ways and Means is excellent.
01:16:28Power Squeeze and Leslie's Rose.
01:16:31Christ, if I like Just FYI, why shouldn't I like Leslie's Rose?
01:16:34So those are my four with Just FYI on top.
01:16:38So Zoe and I had a difference of opinion going into the Ashland stakes at Keeneland,
01:16:44because Just FYI had had a series of good efforts, winning efforts, but slow speed figures.
01:16:50And Impel had fast speed figures.
01:16:52And I thought that Impel would be Just FYI. So we took exception to it.
01:16:56We had a horse for horse fat. Just FYI finished second.
01:16:59Impel finished third. Zoe won.
01:17:02One thing I have learned, and I don't learn that many things in my life,
01:17:06but one thing that I have learned over the course of 50 years as a handicapper plus,
01:17:12handicapper and horse player, is that you have to be wrong.
01:17:18You have to know when you're wrong.
01:17:20You have to be able to go back in hindsight and keep a clear head.
01:17:25You have to be able to go where the evidence takes you and not be hard headed.
01:17:29And the evidence takes me to the opinion that Just FYI ran a huge race in the Ashland,
01:17:37that I was completely wrong about how good she was.
01:17:41And that she is the lead, one of, if not the leading contender in the Kentucky Oaks.
01:17:48Yes! Finally!
01:17:50I think the Kentucky Oaks is going to be won by one of three horses.
01:17:56And this doesn't even include Tarifa, who is the program favorite, who I respect.
01:18:00I think the Kentucky Oaks is going to be won.
01:18:02I have trouble separating these three.
01:18:04Just FYI, Torpedo Anna, and Ways and Means.
01:18:09The old saying in horse racing, if you put a gun to my head and say you have to pick one of those,
01:18:15I guess I'm going to pick Ways and Means.
01:18:17But with Just FYI and Torpedo Anna right behind her.
01:18:22So, Zoe, I've come around now to Just FYI.
01:18:26You know, the way she ran in the Ashland, hey, it was a heck of a race.
01:18:32Now, one more thing quickly.
01:18:34You say that if you like Just FYI, you have to like Todd Fletcher's filly in there, right?
01:18:41Leslie's Rose.
01:18:42Leslie's Rose.
01:18:43If you go back and you look at the races run at Keeneland that day,
01:18:47every single winner on dirt was on rail.
01:18:51And Leslie's Rose had a beautiful rail trip in that race.
01:18:57So just because of that, just because I think that her win was aided by a track bias,
01:19:03I'm going to sort of downgrade Leslie's Rose in my handicapping and upgrade Just FYI,
01:19:12who was on the outside around both turns in the Ashland.
01:19:16You're a man.
01:19:17You always come around.
01:19:18I knew it.
01:19:20I knew you'd come around, Randy.
01:19:22I've got one little thing to add about Tarifa.
01:19:25If you like her, she's a very good filly.
01:19:27I'm just a little bit concerned that she has the ability to boil over.
01:19:31With 150,000 people there, you're going to have to watch her extremely closely
01:19:36in the paddock in the post parade.
01:19:38She's a talent for sure.
01:19:40And she certainly boiled over in her most recent breeze early in the race.
01:19:44She was early in the breeze.
01:19:46And she tends to be extremely anxious and very headstrong.
01:19:50So that's the primary concern I would agree about.
01:19:53The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by XBTV, and this is for all of you watching.
01:19:59The work of the week this week is fierceness.
01:20:02The Kentucky Derby favorite worked a half mile in company with fellow TDN rising star
01:20:07Agate Road Friday morning at Churchill Downs in 48-4.
01:20:11Johnny V was aboard for the work.
01:20:13And Todd Pletcher pronounced himself very, very happy,
01:20:19which is something you don't hear from Todd Pletcher very often.
01:20:23I can attest to the fact that that was an excellent work from fierceness,
01:20:27who has been made the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Derby
01:20:30and will break from the no problem post position number 17.
01:20:35Many thanks to Churchill Downs for this footage.
01:20:37We'll be right back after this message from XBTV.
01:21:07All the thrills.
01:21:14Fraction of the bills.
01:21:18Experience the power of the partnership.
01:21:24Change your life, make new friends, and compete at the highest level of thoroughbred racing.
01:21:33West Point Thoroughbreds, the gold standard in racing partnerships.
01:21:38Visit westpointtb.com.
01:21:42Meanwhile, the TD drivers room is also brought to you by our good friends at West Point Thoroughbreds,
01:21:47who had an excellent meet that just concluded the Keeneland racecourse season.
01:21:52They had four winners at the Keeneland meet, including a double last Friday.
01:21:59And also Northern Invader won on that card, both for trainer Cherie DeVoe.
01:22:03And then West Point came back again on Wednesday and made it to the winner's circle with the maiden by the name of Moe Rhodes.
01:22:10Vaulting everyone concerned with those horses into the world of instant camaraderie.
01:22:15And look what West Point has coming up on Kentucky Derby weekend on the undercard.
01:22:19First of all, the American turf stakes for three-year-olds.
01:22:22What a race that is shaping up to be.
01:22:24And they have Cugino, who has done nothing but run well in his three lifetime starts, right there every time.
01:22:30And also Vava, who will resume her rivalry with Alvastar in the Derby City Distact.
01:22:38Great one race at Seven Furlongs Resettlement.
01:22:42One turn, Vava, I think it's Seven Furlongs, against Alvastar.
01:22:46And now, to learn more, visit westpointtb.com.
01:22:51All right, that's a wrap on this week's show.
01:22:53I want to thank my partners, Zoe Cadman and Randy Moss.
01:22:56Our Green Group Guests of the Week, Emma Berry.
01:22:59And our editors, Katie Petrunia, Anthony LaRocca, and Aaliyah LaRocca.
01:23:03Everybody have a great Kentucky Derby.
01:23:05We'll be back next week to dissect what happened and find out who of us picked the winners or who of us have egg on our face.
01:23:12So we'll see you next week. Thanks for tuning in.

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