IHSG Cenderung Bergerak Flat Usai Sentuh Level 7.650-an
IHSG ditutup 0,00% ke 7.627,06 sesi I Rabu (16/10). Sektor teknologi +0,89% GOTO +1,52%, MLPT +18,41%. Infrastruktur +0,81% BREN +3,05%, properti +0,51% PANI +2,69%. Sektor energi -0,52% ADRO -1,03%. Dari perbankan Big caps saham BMRI -1,06% dan menjadi laggard IHSG 6,7 indeks poin. Saham BMRI cenderung fluktuatif setelah di Selasa menguat 1,81%. Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street ditutup lebih rendah, Selasa, dengan penurunan 1% di Nasdaq karena saham chip tersungkur dipicu kekhawatiran permintaan, sementara sektor energi merosot 3% akibat kejatuhan harga minyak.
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TVTranscript
00:00We are still in IDX, Consensus and Closing, and we are still waiting for you to participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0812-8788.723, as shown on your TV screen.
00:18And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Nikolas Dermawan, Senior Research Analyst at Semesta Indovest Securitas.
00:25We will go straight to you, Mr. Nikolas. Good afternoon, how are you?
00:29Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.
00:31Thank you, Mr. Nikolas, for your time on IDX Channel.
00:35Mr. Nikolas, during today's trading, the Sampkabungan price was strong, quite significant, to IDR 7,658.
00:43Then this level was not able to be maintained.
00:46And in the rest of today's trading, it seems that the Sampkabungan price tends to move flat.
00:53Your analysis?
00:55Yes, for the index itself, maybe today we can see that it was able to make it to the level of IDR 7,658.
01:04This is already approaching the level of IDR 7,700.
01:09Maybe today's trading is a bit bleak.
01:11We can see that it is driven by some sentiments, such as the uncertainty of China's stimulus sentiment,
01:18which also started to decline a few weeks ago.
01:22So, we can see that the inflow is starting to improve to the emerging markets, such as the IHSG.
01:27Then this is also offset by the catalyst from the data of the US employees that will be released on Friday.
01:38So, if we look at the data from Global Central Bank,
01:41Global Central Bank, and also from the domestic market itself,
01:44maybe there is a data of the interest rate BI.
01:48We can see that this is also one of the sentiments that supports the foreign inflow to our index.
01:57On the other hand, the market players are also waiting for the release of China's economic growth in the third quarter.
02:03If this is not in line with expectations, there is still a delay,
02:08will the foreign players return to the domestic market?
02:13Okay, maybe from China's own data,
02:17if we look at it yesterday, it was actually disappointing
02:21from the data of the trade balance and also from the stimulus,
02:27which uncertainty makes the market players uncomfortable with China's stability.
02:34So, in the future, we expect that it will still support the inflow to the emerging markets, such as the IHSG.
02:41So, this is a positive catalyst from China.
02:45From a sectoral point of view, Mr. Nicholas,
02:48Sam Sam Bank, Big Cap, is at the top of the transaction value,
02:52especially at the closing of the first afternoon.
02:55Then, some Big Cap stocks today also become a burden for Indekarga.
03:01There are BMRI, then there is also BBCA.
03:04Overall, how do you see the direction of Sam Sam Bank, Big Cap,
03:08ahead of the release of the third quarter in 2024?
03:13Okay, for Sam Sam Bank, it's actually quite interesting,
03:16because their narrative is actually still the same.
03:20Because according to the relationship, it should still have a positive impact on banks,
03:26especially Big Cap, such as BCA and Bang Mandiri, which are moving to the enterprise market.
03:31But if we look at it, the outflow since the stimulus catalyst from China
03:37still threatens the movements of banks,
03:41because the deep decrease will usually result in a long accumulation in the support.
03:46That's why if we look at it, when the index rebound, the banks tend to lag.
03:52Because if we look at it, on average, foreign banks haven't fully entered yet,
03:57because it's still WNNC related to the 9-month result from 2024.
04:03Okay, from your point of view, what is it like related to the release of the stimulus?
04:08Will it still grow, but still in a delaying phase?
04:13Okay, maybe for growth, we expect it will still grow.
04:17Because if we look at it, from the previous months,
04:20where the level of the flower tribe tends to be high, we see that the banks can still perform.
04:26So if the catalyst for the decline of the flower tribe in the future,
04:30even though we see that the BI is maintaining, we see that it will still grow.
04:34Because yesterday it was also counted as 20 basis points.
04:37So if we look at it, the banks will still be solid,
04:40and we still recommend BAI, especially for big banks like that.
04:45Okay, let's go straight to Bang Mandiri, sir.
04:47Today, the intraday weakness was above 1%.
04:51The position today is weak at 0.71% and has returned to the level of 7,000.
04:56Well, Bang Mandiri looks quite different compared to other big cap banks.
05:01Mr. Nicholas, the fluctuation that happened is quite high for BMRI in some of the last trading days.
05:08When the closure of the trading yesterday, BMRI became a supporter,
05:11strengthening at 1.81%, today it's back to 6,900.
05:17What is your analysis for BMRI with a fairly high volatility?
05:24Okay, for Bang Mandiri, it's quite interesting because yesterday it was quite strong and today it's weak.
05:29As we have explained earlier, because it is in the middle of September,
05:33there will be a long accumulation of sugar in the support layer,
05:36so the rebound will be directly parabolic and massive upwards.
05:40So maybe they will tend to be more sideways first.
05:43So indeed, for the outlook of BMRI, we expect the price to be at the level of 7,200 to 7,000.
05:51So maybe it will tend to accumulate and we recommend for Bang Mandiri to buy on weakness at the level of 7,000 to 6,960.
06:02For the support level, which can be observed at level 6,8,7,9.
06:06And for the target price, we still recommend TP at the level of 7,500 for Bang Mandiri.
06:12Moving to BBCA, sir.
06:14Today, BBCA's weakness is getting deeper.
06:18It moved to the green zone at 10,725.
06:23Finally, it was closed at 10,475.
06:26It means that the position of BBCA today is also technically quite high at 10,700.
06:33Is there any profit taking for BBCA?
06:36Yes, if we look at the profit taking, it's quite small.
06:38Because in terms of the long-term trend, it's still bullish.
06:41And indeed, it's one of the banks that is technically quite leading.
06:45Also, it's one of the strongest fundamentals for these four banks.
06:49So indeed, for BBCA, we still recommend to buy.
06:52Maybe if you want to buy, we recommend at 10,475.
06:58The current price is at 10,375.
07:01So indeed, for the target price, we still recommend at the level of 10,900 up to 11,000 for BBCA.
07:08Okay, what is the target for BBCA at the end of the year, sir?
07:12Okay, maybe at the end of the year, we expect the baseline to be quite optimistic at 11,000.
07:17Up to the level of 11,200 for BBCA.
07:21Okay, it's still quite wide in terms of significant strength for BBCA.
07:25Especially after the stock split that was done some time ago.
07:29We move to the energy sector.
07:31Mr. Nicholas, while waiting for the update on the trade closure in the second session,
07:35I want to go to BRMS, sir.
07:38Today, the movement is reversing, weakening.
07:41This is also quite interesting.
07:42BRMS has experienced significant strength in recent times.
07:45Yesterday, it broke through at level 302, the highest intraday for a long time for BRMS.
07:50Your analysis, the reverse of what happened today.
07:54Okay, if we look at it, BRMS has been quite excessive since mid-September.
07:59It broke through on 17 September when it rebounded.
08:02So even if there is a further correction, we feel that this is still quite reasonable
08:06considering that the increase has been quite a lot.
08:08So at the same time, the market players are doing profit taking.
08:12Moreover, if we look at it globally, the technical gold has started to approach the resistance level.
08:19So for BRMS itself, if we look at it, there is a possibility that it will be corrected first.
08:24The correction is limited, maybe to level 280-278.
08:28So maybe it can be considered as a priority in a situation like that.
08:32Because if we look at it, the strengthening should still continue.
08:36Looking at the cycle, the gold will usually continue to strengthen like that.
08:42Okay, today's closing is at 286.
08:45Weakened by 0.69%.
08:47BRMS has risen to the highest intraday level for a long time in the previous trading day.
08:52At level 302.
08:54Mr. Nicolaus Menari, we will hold first.
08:56I will try to deliver the trading closing update in the second session today.
09:01And the share price of Samkabungan in the second session closing today
09:05Strengthened by 0.29%.
09:07Where in the last minutes of the closing cycle, Samkabungan's index strength has experienced a significant increase.
09:16Where the closing position today is 7648.940.
09:21The highest intraday level is 7658.398.
09:27Let's go straight to the first graph.
09:29First, let's look at the closing position of several other indexes in the second session closing today.
09:36As you can see, the graph on your TV screen, MNC36, strengthens by 0.10%.
09:41Jakarta Islamic Index also strengthens by 0.65%.
09:45While the position of LQ45 strengthens by 0.06%.
09:51Only slightly stronger in line with Samkabungan's price index strengthening pattern.
09:55Let's move on to the next graph, the sectoral movement rotation.
09:59Infrastructure sector leads the strengthening by 1.20%.
10:03There is a brand, today it is quite fast.
10:05Property also strengthens by 1.18%.
10:09With the main contributor, PANI, today it is still quite fast.
10:14Non-primary consumption is reversing.
10:16Today it weakens by 0.69%.
10:18After strengthening in the previous trading day, and finance is also still weakening by 0.39%.
10:24The main contributors are BBCA and BMRI.
10:28The next graph is today's stocks that are quite fast and support Samkabungan's price index.
10:35There is Telkom from Infrastructure.
10:38Closed at level 3,000, strengthened.
10:40After being held at 2,900, Goto also strengthened at Rp68.
10:46PANI is already at Rp12,750.
10:52Today it is also quite fast, but still at Rp6,800.
10:58After experiencing quite a deep correction.
11:00Then we move on to the next graph.
11:02Today's stocks are the main contributors for Samkabungan's price index.
11:06BBCA is stressed at Rp10,475.
11:09Antam also weakened at Rp1,570.
11:12BUMI, we also reviewed earlier, at Rp137.
11:17Together with BRMS and BRPT.
11:19Closed at level 1,000.
11:22Updates on the closing of trading in the second session.
11:24Hopefully it can be a reference for you.
11:26Especially in dealing with trading the day after tomorrow.
11:35We will be back and stay in your place.
11:37After this, we will see what options are recommended.
11:41We will be back soon.