BI Pertahankan Suku Bungan Acuan di Level 6 Persen
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Breaking News, Rabu (16/10/2024) dengan Tema BI Pertahankan Suku Bungan Acuan di Level 6 Persen."
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00:30And one of the things we want to know, of course, is the BIRate or the Indonesian Bank Flower
00:35will be announced in the next press conference of the Indonesian Bank.
00:44The response of the Bank of Indonesia policy, both on the monetary, macro-budget and payment system.
00:53I, as the representative of the Governors' Council, will present the main points of the Governors' Council meeting
01:00starting from the latest assessment and my global economic prospects.
01:09The uncertainty of the global financial market has increased again
01:14amid the convergence of the monetary policy of the developing countries.
01:19First, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed to increase the uncertainty of the global financial market.
01:29In the economic sector, the world's growth in 2024 is expected to grow by as much as 3.2 percent
01:40with a slow decline.
01:44Global inflation in the decline trend has pushed the convergence of the monetary policy,
01:52especially in the developing countries.
01:55In the United States, the latest unemployment rate shows improvement amid lower inflation prospects
02:05so as to boost market expectations for a decrease in the Fed Fund Rate, which is lower than originally estimated.
02:15This has caused an increase in the US Treasury Tenor Yields of 2 and 10 years
02:23and the US Dollar Index against various world currencies,
02:29which is often referred to as the DXY, to rebound.
02:38In the future, the trend of the decline of the developing countries' policy flowers,
02:42especially in the United States, will continue,
02:46although the dynamics of geopolitical tensions need to be continued.
02:53This development requires caution in formulating policy responses in mitigating the impact of the global recession,
03:03including in promoting the flow of foreign capital and strengthening the stability of exchange rates
03:10to maintain stability and support the growth of the domestic economy.
03:17In the country, the Indonesian economy continues to grow well and needs to continue to be pushed to a higher level.
03:24Economic growth in the 3rd quarter of 2024 is supported by domestic demand.
03:32Investment remains strong, especially construction investment in line with the completion of various national strategic projects.
03:41Household consumption, especially the middle class and above, remains maintained.
03:46Non-negotiable exports grow positively amid the slowdown of the global economy and the decrease in community prices.
03:55On the business side, growth is supported by the manufacturing, construction, and large-scale trade industries.
04:05In a spatial way, economic activity is maintained throughout the NKRI region.
04:13In the 4th quarter of 2024, economic growth is expected to remain good,
04:19mainly supported by the increase in investment and the improvement of household consumption
04:27as well as the increase in government spending at the end of the year.
04:33Overall, the Bank of Indonesia estimates that Indonesia's economic growth in 2024
04:41is in the range of 4.7% to 5.5% and will increase in 2025.
04:54In the future, various efforts need to be continued to push for growth,
04:59both on the demand side and on the supply side.
05:04For that, the Bank of Indonesia strengthens the policy framework to push for economic growth
05:10to be higher, in close synergy with the government fiscal stimulus policy.
05:16From the supply side, the structural reform policy needs to be strengthened
05:22to push for the economic sector that can absorb workers.
05:27This effort is supported by the optimization of macro-business policy cycles
05:34and the acceleration of the digitalization of payment transactions in the Bank of Indonesia.
05:41Indonesia's payment system remains healthy and supports the maintenance of external stability.
05:48Indonesia's payment system in 2022-2024 is expected to be surplus,
05:54supported by the surplus of non-negotiable trade,
06:00equivalent to US$6.5 billion.
06:05Meanwhile, the flow of portfolio investment continues and is recorded high in 2022-2024,
06:14i.e. a net inflow of US$11.6 billion.
06:24The net inflow of portfolio investment continues in 2022-2024,
06:30which is recorded as a net inflow of US$0.6 billion until 14 October 2024,
06:42amid an increase in the uncertainty of the global financial market.
06:47Indonesia's reserve position at the end of September 2024 is recorded high,
06:54i.e. US$149.9 billion,
07:01equivalent to 6.6 months of import or 6.4 months of import and payment of foreign bonds.
07:11Indonesia's reserve position is far above the international standard of sufficiency,
07:18which is around three months of import.
07:21In the future, Indonesia's payment system for the entire year 2024
07:27is expected to be better than previous estimates,
07:31in line with an increase in the surplus of capital and financial transactions.
07:38This is supported by the continued increase in the flow of foreign capital,
07:42in line with an interesting investment result.
07:47Meanwhile, the running transaction deficit is also maintained at a low rate,
07:54i.e. 0.1% to 0.9% of gross domestic product, GDP.
08:05In 2025, Indonesia's payment system is expected to remain good,
08:11supported by an increase in domestic economic prospects
08:15and a maintained running transaction deficit.
08:20The running transaction deficit stability is maintained,
08:23in line with the policy commitment set by the Bank of Indonesia.
08:29The running transaction deficit in October 2024,
08:33up to 15 October 2024, recorded a depreciation of 2.82% point to point from the previous month.
08:45The running transaction deficit is mainly affected
08:49by an increase in the uncertainty of the global financial market
08:54as a result of the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
09:00However, if compared to the running transaction deficit level at the end of December 2023,
09:10the depreciation is only 1.17%,
09:15which is better than the weakening of the Philippine peso,
09:20Taiwanese dollar, and Hungarian won,
09:22which are each depreciated by 4.25%, 4.58%, and 5.62%.
09:33In the future, the running transaction value is estimated to be stable,
09:37in line with the attractive low-inflation and still good economic growth prospects of Indonesia,
09:46as well as the Bank of Indonesia's commitment to maintain the stability of the rupee and the stability of the economy.
09:54All monetary instruments will continue to be optimized,
09:58including the strengthening of the Pro-Market Monetary Operation Strategy
10:02through the optimization of the Bank of Indonesia's Rupiah Security Instrument,
10:07the SRBI, the SVBI Bank of Indonesia's VALAS Security,
10:11and the SUVBI Bank of Indonesia's SUKUK VALAS
10:15to strengthen the effectiveness of policies in attracting foreign capital
10:21and support the strengthening of the rupee exchange rate.
10:27Inflation in the consumer price index of the IHK in September 2024
10:33fell and maintained at an average of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
10:40The IHK inflation was the lowest in all components,
10:44reaching 1.84% year-on-year in December 2024.
10:51Inflation was recorded at 2.09% year-on-year,
10:58while volatile food inflation continued to decline to 1.43% year-on-year.
11:05The decrease in volatile food inflation is supported by an increase in food supplies
11:12as the harvest season continues,
11:15as well as the synergy of inflation in the Central and Regional Inflation Management Team
11:21through the National Movement for Food Inflation Management, GNPIP,
11:26and the Influence of Food Price Base Effect.
11:30In the future, the Bank of Indonesia assures that IHK inflation remains under control in its target.
11:37Fundamental inflation is expected to be maintained in line with inflation expectations
11:43that are within the target,
11:45the economic capacity is still large in responding to domestic demand,
11:50imported inflation that is under control,
11:53in line with the stabilization policy of the Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate,
11:59as well as the positive impact of digitalization.
12:04Inflation of volatile food is also expected to be under control,
12:08supported by the synergy of Bank Indonesia's inflation
12:12with the government, both in the Central and Regional Inflation Management Team.
12:16Bank Indonesia continues to commit to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy
12:22in order to maintain inflation in 2024 and 2025,
12:28with a target of 2.5% plus or minus 1%,
12:32while continuing to support the continued effort to strengthen economic growth.
12:40The Pro-Market Monetary Instrument, namely SRBI, SVBI, and SUVBI,
12:47continue to be optimized to support the strengthening of the stability of the Rupiah Exchange Rate
12:53and the achievement of inflationary targets.
12:56This policy is also intended to accelerate the efforts to deepen the financial market and the real estate market,
13:04as well as to push foreign capital into the country.
13:10As of 14 October 2024,
13:15SRBI, SVBI, and SUVBI instruments each amounted to
13:24Rp934.87 trillion for SRBI,
13:31US$3.38 billion for SVBI,
13:36and US$424 million for SUVBI.
13:43SRBI's investment has supported efforts to increase the flow of foreign portfolios into the country
13:52and strengthen the Rupiah Exchange Rate.
13:56Non-residential properties in SRBI amounted to Rp254.57 trillion,
14:08which is around 27.23 percent of the total outstanding.
14:15The implementation of the Primary Dealer since May 2024 has also increased the SRBI transaction
14:24in the secondary market and the Repurchase Agreement Repo transaction between market players
14:31so as to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary instruments in the stabilization of the Rupiah Exchange Rate and inflationary targets.
14:41In the future, Bangladesh will continue to optimize various innovations in the pro-market instruments,
14:47both in terms of volume and in terms of revenue drawback,
14:53and will be supported by the strong condition of the fundamental economy of Indonesia
14:58to push for the continuation of the flow of foreign portfolios into the domestic financial market.
15:07Various steps for the deepening of the Wall Street financial market are still in progress,
15:13including the implementation of the Central Counterparty, the CCP,
15:20for the derivative and value-for-money transactions that we have not launched for a long time.
15:30Monetary policy transmission is going well.
15:34The Indonesian flower market is moving around the PIR rate of 6.16 percent on 15 October 2024.
15:47The SRBI flower market for the tenures of 6, 9, and 12 months on 11 October 2024
15:56is recorded at levels of 6.69 percent, 6.79 percent, and 6.84 percent,
16:07and it is still attractive to support the flow of foreign capital.
16:13The SBN tenors for two years on 15 October 2024 fell to 6.31 percent.
16:23Meanwhile, the SBN tenors for ten years increased to 6.67 percent
16:30in line with the increase in the US Treasury tenors for ten years.
16:36Meanwhile, the banking liquidity is in line with the implementation of the Bangunesa policy,
16:44including the KLM macro-financial liquidity incentive policy.
16:50Good liquidity as well as banking efficiency in the formation of a better price
16:57with the transparency policy of the SBDK basic credit flower tribe
17:03has a positive impact on the surviving banking flower tribe.
17:09The Deposito flower tribe for one month and the credit flower tribe for September 2024
17:16is recorded at levels of 4.75 percent and 9.24 percent,
17:24which is relatively stable compared to the previous month.
17:31The credit growth in September 2024 is still strong, reaching 10.85 percent year-on-year.
17:42In terms of offers, the strength of the credit growth is supported
17:47by the interest in the preservation of credit distribution,
17:50followed by the reallocation of liquid assets to credit by banks
17:56and the support of the KLM macro-financial liquidity incentive policy.
18:03Until Monday, October 2024,
18:07Bangunesa has distributed KLM liquidity incentives worth Rp256.5 trillion
18:18to the BUMN Group worth Rp119 trillion,
18:25the BUSN Bank worth Rp110.2 trillion,
18:31the BPD Blood Development Bank worth Rp24.6 trillion,
18:37and the Asing Bank Branch Office worth Rp2.7 trillion.
18:43The KLM incentives are distributed to priority sectors,
18:50namely mineral and food hydration, MSMEs, automotive sector,
18:56trade and electricity, gas and water, LGA,
19:01as well as the tourism and creative economy sector.
19:05In terms of requests, the credit growth is supported
19:11by the efforts of the maintained corporations.
19:15In terms of sector, the credit growth in the majority of economic sectors is still strong,
19:21especially in the sectors of business, trade, industry, mining, and transportation.
19:32Based on the use of the credit growth of labor capital,
19:37the consumption and investment credit of each sector is 10.01% year-on-year,
19:4610.88% year-on-year, and 12.26% year-on-year.
19:54This is the data for September 2024.
19:58The share price has grown by 11.37% year-on-year,
20:05while the credit of MSMEs has grown by 5.04% year-on-year,
20:12which is better than the previous month.
20:16In the future, I believe that the credit growth in 2024
20:24will still be around 10-12%.
20:29To boost the further growth of the credit,
20:35Bank Indonesia continues to strengthen the implementation of the KLM,
20:41the Macro-Budgetary Liquidity Incentive Policy.
20:44In the future, the strengthening of the KLM will be carried out
20:48to boost the increase in financing credits
20:52to business sectors that support the creation of jobs,
21:00as well as sectors that can improve the well-being of the community,
21:05including the lower middle class, the MSMEs and ultra-micro-UMI segments,
21:12as well as the green sector,
21:14while still adhering to the principle of attention.
21:20Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen the effectiveness
21:24of implementing the Macro-Budgetary Liquidity Incentive Policy
21:29with the working synergy of the Government,
21:34the KSSK, banks, and business actors
21:38so that it can truly support the increase in financing credits
21:43for sustainable economic growth.
21:48The maintenance of the financial system is still maintained.
21:52Bank liquidity remains consistent
21:55with the ratio of liquid assets to third-party funds,
22:00AL per DPK, in September 2024,
22:06which is 25.22%.
22:11The ratio of capital adequacy ratio,
22:15or CAR ratio, for banks in August 2024
22:21is also recorded as high,
22:23which is 26.69%,
22:27and is strong in absorbing risks
22:31and supporting the growth of credit.
22:35Meanwhile, the non-performing loan ratio,
22:39or NPL, for banks in August 2024
22:44is also maintained low,
22:46which is 2.26% gross,
22:51and 0.78% net.
22:56The maintenance of capital and bank liquidity
23:00is also supported by the ability to pay
23:04and the sustainability of corporate profitability
23:08as a result of the current bank stress test.
23:13In the future,
23:15I will continue to strengthen the policy synergy
23:18with the KSSK
23:20in mitigating various potential risks
23:24that interfere with the stability of the financial system.
23:28Economic and digital transaction efficiency
23:33in the third quarter of 2024
23:36continues to grow,
23:38supported by a safe, smooth, and reliable payment system.
23:43In terms of value,
23:47transactions through Bank Indonesia Real-Time Gross Settlement
23:52or BERTGS,
23:54increased by 16.04% year-on-year
24:01to Rp45,252 trillion.
24:07In terms of retail,
24:09the volume of BIFAS transactions grew
24:1361.1% year-on-year
24:17to 924.9 million transactions.
24:24Digital banking services transactions
24:29recorded 5,666.3 million transactions
24:36or grew by 34.43% year-on-year.
24:42Meanwhile, electronic money transactions
24:46grew 29.1%
24:49to 4,001.1 million transactions.
24:55Payment transactions using ATM debit cards
24:59decreased by 8.59% year-on-year
25:03to 1,738.5 million transactions.
25:09Credit card transactions grew 14.84% year-on-year
25:15to 116.97 million transactions.
25:21Cash transactions grew by 209.6% year-on-year
25:29to Rp53.3 million
25:35to Rp34.23 million.
25:41In terms of money management,
25:44the total amount of credit card money
25:47grew by 9.96% year-on-year
25:51to Rp1,057.4 trillion.
25:56Payment system stability is maintained
25:59supported by a good structure
26:02as well as a sustainable infrastructure.
26:06In terms of infrastructure,
26:08the smoothness and reliability of the Indonesian payment system
26:12is maintained well.
26:15In terms of industry structure,
26:18interconnection of payment system
26:21and expansion of digital economy ecosystem
26:25continues to increase.
26:27Payment transactions based on
26:30National Open API Payment Standard or SNAP
26:34also increased along with the adoption of SNAP
26:38which is getting wider.
26:40Indonesia continues to maintain the availability of money
26:44in a sufficient amount
26:46with a reasonable quality
26:50in all regions of the United Nations,
26:55including the most advanced,
26:58outermost, and narrowest regions.
27:02That is the result of the assessment and projection
27:06of the Governors' Council on Global Economy,
27:09Domestic Economy,
27:11Inflation, Exchange Rate,
27:14Financial Sector, Monetary, and Liquidity
27:17which is the basis of the decision-making
27:20of the Governors' Council.
27:25I will read the decision of the Governors' Council.
27:30The Governors' Council of Bank Indonesia
27:33on 15 and 16 October 2024
27:38decided to maintain the BI rate of 6%.
27:46The Deposit Facility Flow rate remained at 5.25%
27:52and the Landing Facility Flow rate remained at 6.75%.
28:00This decision is consistent with the direction of monetary policy
28:05to ensure that inflation is still under control
28:10in the range of 2.5% plus or minus 1%
28:14in 2024 and 2025
28:18as well as to support sustainable economic growth.
28:25The focus of monetary policy in the short term
28:29is on the exchange rate stability
28:32because it increases the uncertainty of the global financial market.
28:38In the future, the Bank Indonesia will continue to reflect
28:42the policy flow rate reduction space
28:46while still paying attention to the prospects of inflation,
28:51monetary value, and economic growth.
28:56The macro-financial policy and payment system
28:59will also continue to be directed to support
29:03sustainable economic stability and growth.
29:09The macro-financial policy continues to be pushed
29:13to further push the banking financing credit
29:18to the priority sectors of growth and job creation,
29:26including MSMEs and green economies,
29:30while still paying attention to the principle of attention.
29:35The payment system policy is also directed
29:39to continue to push growth,
29:42especially the trading sector, both large and retail, and MSMEs,
29:48to strengthen the infrastructure and industrial structure of the payment system
29:55as well as to expand the acceptance of the digitalization of the payment system.
30:25Thank you for watching!