Menimbang Susunan Menteri Kabinet Baru
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (16/10/2024) dengan Tema Menimbang Susunan Menteri Kabinet Baru".
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00:00Thank you very much, Mr. Mirsa, for joining us again in the segment of the Bass Market and Indeks Harga Selanggabungan, or IISK, Mr. Mirsa, yesterday.
00:11It was closed again, quite turbulent in the trading, with a return to the level of 7600.
00:16The strengthening of IISK took place after the announcement of a candidate for the new government, including the request of Mr. Mulyani Indrawati as Minister of Finance.
00:24Indeks Harga Selanggabungan, or IISK, was closed again in the green zone, with a strength of 0.89% and managed to survive above 7600.
00:39It was closed again in the green zone, with a strength of 0.89% and managed to survive above 7600.
00:47It was opened again at level 7559 and managed to reach the highest intraday level at 7635.
00:57Overall, as long as the trading of IISK moves in the green zone, as many as eight sectors support the speed of IISK,
01:04among which the sector that rises the highest, the consumer goods primary strengthens 1.39%.
01:12Health increases 1.23%, technology speeds up 1.13%, real estate strengthens 0.83%, while the weakening sector, including infrastructure, drops 0.19%.
01:27Energy 0.17% and real estate properties are stressed 0.03%.
01:35The production of IISK is driven by various supporting factors from within the country.
01:41One of them is the announcement of the ministerial path for the government of the elected President and Vice President.
01:48The Indonesian market seems to respond well to the current development in the transition of the government, which is considered smooth and promising economic projections.
01:58The special request of Prabowo to Sri Mulyani to return to serve as Minister of Finance is seen as a positive sign of the continuity of economic policy that has been proven effective.
02:14Not only the shares affiliated with the ministerial path called by the elected President, Prabowo Subianto also joined in.
02:22The shares affiliated with Minister of Finance Erick Tahir PT Mahaka Integra TBK or MARI are closed at 29.41% at Rp 66 per share.
02:36PT Teladam's shares received Agro TBK or TDLN strengthening 16.94% at Rp 580 per share.
02:45As is known, the strengthening of the TDLN shares is among one of the commissioners, Widianti Putriwardana, called by the elected President in the ministerial candidacy.
02:59Positive sentiment also comes from the foreign trade sector, where the Statistics Agency reported that the R&D king in September 2024 again experienced a surplus of USD 3.26 billion.
03:14For IDX Channel
03:44Indonesia's Suku Bunga Bank Resolution
03:50South Korea's unemployment rate in September
03:55Japan's machine ordering in August and year-on-year
04:00South Korea's trade king in September
04:03U.S. Export-Import Index
04:09Global Economic Agenda
04:14EMITEN Agenda
04:16RUPS Agenda
04:18LUSI Agenda
04:20Ex-Dividend Tunai
04:22ASGR Agenda
04:24DPS Dividend Tunai
04:26Auto Agenda
04:28Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange Agenda
04:30Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange Agenda
04:34Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:37Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:40Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:42Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:44Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:46Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:48Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:50Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:52Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:54Japan's Nikkei Stock Exchange Update
04:55There are several sentiments that we will discuss this morning, Mr. Mirza,
04:59including the price of crude oil, which has fallen by more than 4%.
05:02The news is because the Prime Minister of Israel, Netanyahu,
05:09stated that Israel apparently will not attack oil reserves from Iran,
05:15but more to military camps.
05:18So, the hope is lost due to the disturbance of the party,
05:22which causes the price of crude oil to fall.
05:23That is one of the sentiments of Mr. Mirza,
05:26and also from within the country,
05:28related to the names of ministers in the cabinet of Prabowo Gibran,
05:32who seem to be in a row.
05:34We will discuss it this morning with Mr. Wawan Henrayana,
05:37Vice President of Infovesa.
05:39Good morning, Mr. Wawan.
05:41Good morning.
05:43Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Wawan.
05:45We will discuss first from a global perspective.
05:47The price of crude oil has fallen by 4%,
05:49then Asia this morning is led by the Japanese stock exchange,
05:53then Wall Street and Europe are getting stronger.
05:56What do you see?
05:58Does energy seem to have a heavy impact?
06:01Or how?
06:03Yes, of course, when the price of crude oil falls,
06:06the price of commodities will also fall.
06:08This is affected by the projections of several countries in Asia.
06:13Then, if we look globally,
06:16the economic data in the United States
06:19is not in line with expectations.
06:23The expectation is that there will be a decrease in labor
06:28and also a decrease in inflation,
06:30so that the deficit itself can lower the flow rate further.
06:33But the latest data shows that labor has increased.
06:36This makes investors worried that
06:39the decline in the flow rate of the next deficit could be delayed.
06:42These sentiments make the global and regional markets experience a correction.
06:47From the global market,
06:50energy has become the main source,
06:53while from Wall Street and Europe, energy is reduced by 3%.
07:00Yes, can you repeat?
07:03Yes, related to Wall Street and Europe,
07:06energy has become the main source,
07:08energy is reduced by 3%.
07:10And I am correct,
07:12Wall Street and Europe,
07:14then the United States,
07:15the economy has become weak.
07:18Wall Street and Europe,
07:20the economy has become weak.
07:24Yes, if we look at the global economy,
07:29the expectation that the flow rate will decrease
07:32is still increasing.
07:34If we look at the geopolitical crisis,
07:37be it good or bad,
07:39it will affect the prices of commodities.
07:42Although in the long term,
07:45I don't see this crisis directly affecting the stock market,
07:50but in the short term, this could be a negative catalyst.
07:55What should be anticipated with the price of oil falling by more than 4% right now?
08:01For anticipation,
08:03of course, with the decline in inflation globally,
08:07as well as the decline in energy,
08:14we can see that stocks related to finance can be benefited.
08:21But we are still waiting for the fundamental data in the United States,
08:27especially because the United States is getting closer to the presidential election.
08:31So this will also be awaited by investors,
08:34what the results will be like.
08:35Although the latest data shows that President Trump is in the lead,
08:40but we still have about a month,
08:43so we are still waiting for what kind of policies will be taken by the elected president later.
08:50Okay, what strategy should be determined for the short term?
08:56Sorry, the voice is a bit...
08:58Okay, we will discuss it later, Mr. Oman.
09:00We have to discuss it later.
09:01First of all, Mr. Yusof,
09:03I would like to ask for your advice on whether to stay in the market bus segment.
09:07We are back with you, Mr. Yusof, in the market bus segment,
09:10and we will still be talking with Mr. Wawan Hedrayana,
09:13Vice President of Infopesa.
09:15But before that, Mr. Yusof,
09:17we will review the strategy again when the price of energy is more than 4%,
09:21which was previously estimated to be a conflict between Israel and Iran.
09:25This will undermine the oil supply from Iran,
09:29which is also the largest player globally.
09:31But it turns out that Israel, according to information in a number of media,
09:36said that it will not attack the oil supply from Iran.
09:40So it looks like it will no longer affect the team.
09:43Now, we see that the world trade exchange is down,
09:46pitched by the energy sector, in addition to technology.
09:49But the energy fell by 3%, then Europe also fell,
09:52Asia was also led this morning by Nikkei Japan.
09:54Compact fell.
09:56Mr. Wawan, a short-term strategy.
09:57Mr. Wawan, what should market players think of this commodity price?
10:03Yes, I see that the price of commodity decline will be more temporary.
10:09Because no matter what,
10:11with the economic growth in the world starting to recover,
10:14energy needs will continue to increase.
10:17So in the long run,
10:19the price of energy will actually increase.
10:22In the short term, of course,
10:23the hotter the geopolitical tension,
10:27it can affect the price of commodities, especially energy.
10:31But in Indonesia itself,
10:33the price of energy stocks is actually still relatively inexpensive.
10:37So for investors who want to diversify,
10:41it can also affect stock prices, especially coal.
10:44Stock prices, coal.
10:46Not only you, this week more curious
10:48if talking about energy is coal.
10:50Why coal, Mr. Wawan?
10:51Yes, for coal itself,
10:54Indonesia, of course, is one of the largest producers.
10:59And no matter what,
11:01if we talk about cheap energy,
11:04the main choice is still coal.
11:07So the need for coal,
11:09although politically,
11:12the pressure is not only in Indonesia,
11:15from outside too, that this energy is not clean,
11:19compared to other energies.
11:21So we can't deny that from an economic point of view,
11:24this is the most optimal time to produce energy.
11:27So I think the need for coal will still increase.
11:30There are many issues,
11:32but for now, what is possible to be used is still coal.
11:35Okay, if so,
11:37talking about coal,
11:39there are quite a lot in the Indonesian stock exchange.
11:41Which is still prospective
11:43and our investment is more to the time frame,
11:47what is it like?
11:48As for coal,
11:50I see it like
11:53Andarro,
11:55UTMG,
11:57these are still interesting,
11:59because their sales are still okay,
12:02then they also do export,
12:04and most importantly,
12:06they share quite a large dividend.
12:09So in the medium term,
12:12these companies are still interesting.
12:14In the short term, of course,
12:15the price will still be volatile,
12:17following the price of the energy itself.
12:19But in addition to approaching the months of dividend sharing,
12:23which is usually around May-June,
12:25I think these companies will tend to increase.
12:28Okay, as for the opportunity from IHSG,
12:30what will it be like this morning, Mr. Wawan?
12:33Because today we are also getting closer,
12:35with the president's appointment on Sunday,
12:39and the names of the ministers have also started to appear.
12:43But the price of oil is under pressure.
12:45How about the opportunity from the Indonesian Stock Exchange,
12:48the opening this morning,
12:50in the first session, how will it be?
12:52It is very likely to reopen again,
12:55and can survive above IDR 7,600 for today,
13:00as the first support.
13:02The second support is at IDR 5,550.
13:05The resistance itself, we hope,
13:07can reach IDR 7,650.
13:10IDR 7,000?
13:13At what level, Mr. Wawan?
13:15At IDR 7,650.
13:17IDR 7,650 is the closest target, right?
13:19Yes, that's right.
13:21There is an opportunity, even though Asia this morning
13:23is open on average,
13:25you see there is an opportunity for IHSG to continue to strengthen, right?
13:27Yes, the banks will still be the main driver,
13:32because the closer to the appointment of Mr. Prabowo,
13:35and his program is getting clearer,
13:38the end of the stick will still go to finance.
13:41The end of the stick will still go to finance.
13:43The end of the stick will still go to finance.
13:45For now, it seems that it is certainly
13:48worthy to be discussed,
13:50if you are looking for what is certain.
13:52That's right.
13:54Okay.
13:56Considering the arrangement of the new cabinet ministers,
13:58from Mr. Wawan's point of view,
14:00what do you think?
14:02There are quite a lot of names,
14:04and from various branches,
14:06there are also names in the old cabinet,
14:08and indeed, Mr. Prabowo himself has been able to convey
14:10many of the ministerial ranks later,
14:11but there are still old faces.
14:13Yes, of course, with the theme that Mr. Prabowo brought,
14:19which is continuity,
14:21there must be some old faces
14:24who will fill in the new cabinet.
14:27Especially what I see is from the economic side.
14:30But this is actually liked by the market,
14:33because the team that manages the Indonesian economy
14:37from the previous cabinet
14:39is considered quite prudent,
14:41in terms of deficit,
14:43as well as fiscal stability from Indonesia.
14:46So, his decision to bring back
14:50the economic teams from Mr. Jokowi's cabinet
14:54is appreciated by the market.
14:56As for the other new faces,
14:58because Mr. Jokowi has been pleasing to Mr. Prabowo,
15:03and Mr. Prabowo, even though he is continuous,
15:06but has a high economic growth target,
15:097% to 8%,
15:11so it is necessary to bring fresh air
15:15to think about how to boost the economy in Indonesia.
15:21If we look at the old faces,
15:23there are more than 10,
15:25especially in the economic field,
15:27who are still in the old cabinet.
15:29But this is viewed by the market as something positive,
15:31according to Mr. Wawan,
15:33especially from Sri Mulyani,
15:35who is also considered as an economic minister,
15:37he is quite prudent,
15:39so it seems that no one is too worried
15:41about Mr. Prabowo and Mr. Gibran in the future.
15:45Yes, at least with the old team,
15:49we can see from the previous breakthroughs,
15:54so it can be estimated that
15:56maybe the deficit will remain,
15:59the management of the state budget is more prudent,
16:03but still with Mr. Prabowo's aggressive target
16:11of 7% to 8%,
16:13it does need a lot of breakthroughs.
16:15These breakthroughs of course require funding,
16:18and I think Mr. Sri Mulyani will be suitable there
16:22because he has become a guardian of Indonesia's state budget.
16:28Okay, so it is considered positive,
16:31at least so far,
16:33from the names we see
16:35doing talks with the elected president.
16:38Okay, today there will also be an announcement
16:42from Bank Indonesia about Suku Bunga,
16:44there is an opportunity to drop another 25 basis points,
16:46how far will it be the attention of the market actors,
16:48and what needs to be done
16:50to welcome the decision of Bank Indonesia later this afternoon?
16:55Yes, previously Bank Indonesia has dropped 25 basis points,
16:59it turns out that the deficit is more aggressive,
17:02the drop is 50,
17:04so it is only natural that Bank Indonesia
17:06will drop another 25 basis points,
17:09but indeed some analysts see that
17:12there is no urgency for Suku Bunga to be dropped,
17:16maybe the drop of Suku Bunga
17:18can happen in November or December,
17:20but if it really drops today,
17:22it can be a positive catalyst,
17:24especially for financial businesses
17:26and assets based on Suku Bunga,
17:28such as properties and automotives.
17:30Can we start to look at the bank,
17:32maybe in the opening of the first session,
17:33the confidence is still waiting for the compression from the BI?
17:37Yes, for the bank itself, please enter,
17:41because on the one hand, fundamentally,
17:44we have very low inflation, even deflation,
17:47then Suku Bunga should also drop,
17:50and meanwhile, the growth of some banks' credit
17:54is already double digit,
17:56so this can be a positive catalyst
17:58for the bank's own income.
18:00Of course, there will be
18:01a greater growth of credit,
18:03there will also be a greater risk of non-performing loans,
18:06but it will only become a problem, I think,
18:09next year or even in 2026.
18:13So for now, I suggest that
18:16our main gun is in the banks themselves.