10 Day Trend 22/05/2024 – Drier weekend to come
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 22/05/2024. After a particularly wet couple of days, the weather will turn that much drier by Friday. The best day of the bank holiday will likely be Saturday as it turns more unsettled
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello there. The good news is the wet weather we're seeing at the moment is
00:03not going to last into the Bank Holiday weekend as a little change is on the way.
00:08But the bad news is, as is fairly typical, the weather is a little bit
00:11uncertain for Bank Holiday Monday in particular. Let's take a closer look at
00:16the pressure pattern at the moment. I think the important things to note are
00:19the jet stream first of all. It's a fairly meandering pattern. You can see it
00:23pushing up to the north of the UK and round to the south of the UK as well.
00:27That's building in this area of high pressure. It's quite a blocked pattern
00:31basically. And this area of high pressure to the east of the UK is blocking any
00:35progress of our weather systems in from the west. So any mobility that has been
00:39moving in from the west, any weather fronts and low pressures that have
00:43moved in from the Atlantic, bumped into this high pressure and pivoted
00:46background to affect the UK. That's what's happened with this area of
00:51low pressure that we're seeing at the moment. That's bringing the very
00:54persistent and fairly exceptional rainfall to some areas. Over the next few
00:58hours, a few days, they will see that area of low pressure fill and by
01:01Saturday we'll see a much more relaxed pressure pattern with no weather fronts
01:06or low pressure systems at all. So Saturday is looking like the best day of
01:10the Bank Holiday weekend. But before then, it's going to be quite a slow process
01:14for that low pressure to fill. So through Thursday, we'll still be pivoting around
01:18to the north and east of the UK with wet weather still pushing in from the north,
01:22particularly across Scotland through Thursday. There's still weather warnings
01:25enforced through Thursday. The rain will slowly and continue to ease through
01:30Thursday night into Friday morning. So by the time we get to Friday morning,
01:33there's still be quite a lot of cloud around, but it's certainly going to be
01:36that much drier. And across the south, particularly through Thursday and into
01:40Friday, it should be considerably drier but still fairly cloudy. In any sunshine,
01:45it won't feel too bad on Thursday and Friday in the south, but widely I think
01:50temperatures will be a little bit below par. Some showers may break out on Friday
01:54across northern areas, but compared to Wednesday and Thursday, it's going to be
01:58a considerably better day. As we head into Friday evening and into the weekend,
02:04we continue to see the weather improve. Saturday, as I said, looks like the best
02:08day of the weekend. It's not going to be widespread sunshine throughout the day,
02:12but it does look like most areas should get away with a dry day with some fairly
02:16prolonged sunny spells. However, notice there is some wet weather pushing into
02:21the east. There's a low possibility that we could see some quite heavy showers
02:24across eastern areas by the afternoon and into early evening. But in any sunshine,
02:29temperatures are on the rise into the low 20s across the south and high teens
02:33across the north. But there will be a change as we head into Saturday evening
02:39and Sunday. This wet weather across the west is a weather front, and that's
02:43going to make progress pushing across the UK through Sunday. It won't move
02:47particularly quickly, and as it does move eastwards, it will become more of a
02:51showery feature. So potentially some persistent rain to start across the
02:55northeast on Sunday. Most areas having a fairly dry start on Sunday, but showers
03:00will break out quite widely actually on Sunday. They're not going to affect
03:05everywhere. There will still be some sunshine between those showers, highs of
03:0920, 21 degrees into the low 20s around average for the time of year. Fairly
03:13warm in that sunshine, but potentially some quite hefty downpours. Let's take
03:18a look at the rainfall accumulations throughout Sunday. So as I said, that
03:22persistent rain across the northeast to start, but it's further south and west
03:26that we start to see those showers breaking out by Sunday afternoon. As you
03:29can see, most areas actually won't see any of those showers. But where you do
03:33catch one, you can see there's some quite bright echoes and that could bring
03:36about 15 millimetres in around three hours. So that's enough to bring some
03:40spray on the road to make you want to go inside if you are heading out and about
03:44on Sunday. So it's worth keeping up with the radar through Sunday to keep an eye
03:48on those showers. So it's fairly straightforward as we head through
03:53Saturday and Sunday. Bit of a change to more unsettled weather on Sunday. But as
03:57is often the case by Bank Holiday Monday, the weather forecast becomes
04:02slightly less certain. Let's take a look at what the Met Office model wants to
04:07do at this stage. So this weather front, this plume of warm air comes up from the
04:12south and east. And as this trough across Europe develops, it will allow
04:17this low pressure system to develop across the UK. Now, this is quite a
04:21change from what we were seeing yesterday in the deep dive for our Bank
04:26Holiday Monday forecast. And it's also quite a different forecast compared to
04:30other models as well. So take a look here. We've got – this is the Met Office
04:34model. We've got low pressure centred right across the UK for Bank Holiday
04:37Monday. Let's take another look at – take a closer look at another model. This is
04:42ECMWF, the European Long Range model. This is the same point on the Bank
04:47Holiday Monday. And we've got a ridge of higher pressure building in and cooler
04:53air as well. You can see that plume that develops in the Met Office model. It's
04:56actually well to the east of the UK, taking with it that more unsettled
05:00weather. And this would bring a more widely showery picture. So what do we
05:05trust when the models are showing us different things? Well, we need to take a
05:09closer look at a few different things as well. So let's take a closer look at
05:12some more stuff from our Met Office model. We call these the
05:17postage stamps. They are very small, so I don't expect you to be able to look at
05:21the detail just yet. We'll have a closer look in a couple in just a moment. But
05:25essentially, if you don't know what an ensemble model is, it's when you take the
05:29same model and you run it several times with slightly different initial
05:32conditions, starting points, just to see how that changes the forecast as you
05:37head further in time. And one thing to note is all of these postage stamps do
05:43look quite different. And when you see things like this, you think, oh, there is
05:46some uncertainty in the forecast. Not everything is showing us the same thing.
05:49But that might mean that there is a chance of some slightly better weather
05:53than that low pressure across the UK on Monday. So let's zoom in on a couple of
05:58those postage stamps. So this is the control run. This is what shows that low
06:03pressure system. And you can see these are the 24-hour rainfall accumulations
06:08through Monday. And there's some pretty wet weather in this run across the UK,
06:13central areas of England and Wales in particular seeing that wet weather. But
06:18if you look at another member, actually, that's not supported by all the other
06:21members. And in this run, actually, the wettest weather is out to the east of
06:24the UK, similar to how that ECMWF model was showing us as well. And there's
06:30still some rainfall across the UK, but again, potentially just some showers. And
06:34all those postage stamps showed somewhere either one or the other or
06:38somewhere in between. So what can we say for the bank holiday Monday at this
06:42point? Well, I think the best thing to take away is that it's likely to be a
06:45showery day, probably as unsettled as it will be on Sunday, with potentially
06:51some heavy and thundery showers across eastern areas of the UK. However,
06:55having said that, light winds means that it will still feel fairly warm in any
07:00sunshine. So it's not expected to be a total washout at this stage. We're still
07:04a few days away and we will be putting out a full bank holiday forecast
07:08tomorrow. So make sure you keep up to date with the details on that one. So
07:13what's going to happen after the bank holiday Monday and into the half term
07:16week for some of us? Well, our friend, the Azores High is expected to build in.
07:22This has been a bit of a trending trend for the past few weeks,
07:26is for the Azores High to build in. And this is the most likely pressure pattern
07:30for a lot of next week. So you can see that Azores High to the southwest of the
07:34UK. And that would bring drier weather to many southern areas. But there's still
07:40some wet weather around with the jet stream still meandering up to the north
07:43of the UK. That would push low pressure systems up to the north and west.
07:49But as is often the case when we get between these highs and lows, there is a
07:52bit of a battle between the highs and lows. And some days one will win out over
07:57the other. And there will be some days when that low pressure is a little bit
08:01more dominant throughout next week, bringing that wetter weather more widely,
08:04particularly to western areas. But there will also be some days when that higher
08:09pressure wins out a little bit more, bringing more widely settled weather
08:13across the UK. So I think we'll be mixing between that high and low moving
08:18in from the north. And that's high building in from the south throughout
08:22next week. But in all of these cases, actually, the driest weather is still
08:27expected to be across the south and east in particular, and the wetter weather
08:31becoming in most frequently across the north and west. So a bit of a northwest
08:36southeast split is expected for much of next week, with the best of any dry
08:40weather in the south and east and the most persistent wetter weather in the
08:44north and west. But as I said, that dry weather could push a bit more widely
08:48across the UK and that wetter weather could also push a bit more widely across
08:52the UK on some days. But most days will be somewhere in between these, I would
08:57think. And also, it's still looking fairly warm, so it will still feel fairly
09:02warm in any sunshine. Some further fairly mild nights to come as well.
09:07Though before we get to next week, we've still got the back holiday to come. As I
09:10said, we will be putting out a full forecast tomorrow on YouTube. So make
09:14sure make sure you stay tuned for that. And don't forget to subscribe to our
09:18YouTube channel. Bye bye.