Thursday evening forecast 19/10/23
19 October – National weather forecast presented by Alex Burkill.
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00:00Hello, Storm Barbette is here and it's already brought some very heavy rain and strong winds
00:05and is going to continue to do so as we go through the next day or so. At the moment
00:10we are sandwiched between low pressure towards the southwest and a blocking area of high
00:14pressure towards the northeast. This isn't going anywhere particularly fast. As a result,
00:19the frontal system that's lying across Scotland at the moment also doesn't move anywhere particularly
00:23soon and so we're going to see those rainfall totals building up. We also have another system
00:28coming up and that's going to bring rain across parts of England, Wales into Northern Ireland
00:32as we go through into Friday. But the other thing I want to highlight is the direction
00:36of the winds coming from the east which is why it's eastern parts which are really going
00:41to bear the brunt of the strongest winds and the heaviest rain. That's a little bit different
00:45to usual. Often our winds come from the west. If we look at the red warning which we currently
00:50have out for some parts of Scotland across the uplands of Angus and southern Aberdeenshire
00:56here we could see in excess of 200 millimetres of rain in just a day or so. This is an exceptionally
01:03high amount of rain to come in a very short period of time. Some places could see well
01:07over a month's worth of rain in just a very short period which is why we are going to
01:12see some significant impacts. Flooding is likely, damage to property especially when
01:17you factor in the strong winds and there will be travel disruption, road closures, cancellations
01:23on buses and trains and I am expecting some communities to be at risk of getting cut
01:28off perhaps for a few days. If we look at the details though and as we go through the
01:32rest of Thursday and into Friday, heavy rain then across many parts of Scotland particularly
01:38towards the east but some of it spreading further west. Heavy rain then also spilling
01:42up from the south across south east England and then pushing into the Midlands and perhaps
01:46north Wales as we go through the early hours of Friday morning. All the time it's going
01:51to be largely cloudy for many places and there will be strong winds coming in from
01:55the east as a result temperatures aren't going to drop much. A mild night for most though
02:00it's not going to feel mild in the wind and the rain if you wake up to that wet and windy
02:05picture first thing on Friday morning. Through Friday itself then the heavy rain continues
02:11across central northern parts of England into Wales, Northern Ireland a wet picture here
02:15and that rain continues across eastern northeastern England and eastern Scotland too. Heavy rain
02:21likely to cause some significant impacts especially when you factor in those strong gusty winds
02:26coming in from the east and we're likely to see gusts of around 60-70 mph. There will
02:32be some drier brighter weather towards northwestern parts of Scotland and towards the south southwest
02:37of England and Wales but also a scattering of showers here. Temperatures here likely
02:42to be a little bit above average for the time of year. Highs around 16-17 celsius cooler
02:47further north though and feeling unpleasant in the wind and the rain. The heavy rain continues
02:53to come in from the east as we go through the end of Friday and overnight into Saturday
02:58so continue with a wet picture across eastern parts of Scotland, eastern northeastern England
03:03as well. Otherwise again it's going to be a largely cloudy night. There will be some
03:07outbreaks of rain and the strong winds do continue as well. So once more it's going
03:12to be a mild night. Temperatures not dropping much. Most places particularly towards the
03:16south staying in double figures. A little bit cooler further north and again an unpleasant
03:21picture first thing on Saturday morning. Heavy rain continues on Saturday down eastern parts
03:27of Scotland, northeast England. There may even be a little bit of sleet or snow over
03:30the high ground of Scotland. Whilst the rain on Saturday won't be as heavy as through Thursday
03:36and Friday because it's coming so soon after the exceptional weather due to storm Babette
03:41it is going to cause some further issues. Elsewhere there will be outbreaks of rain
03:45as we go through Saturday but turning somewhat drier into the afternoon still with a few
03:49showers here or there. Some of them could be heavy perhaps even thundery towards the
03:53far south of England. Some brighter breaks developing though and in those it shouldn't
03:58feel too bad as the winds start to ease a little bit. Still windy for many places particularly
04:03towards the east and northeast but temperatures a touch above average for the time of year.
04:09We have plenty of warnings out at the moment so worth keeping up to date with those across
04:13our social media on our app and our website and I have more information on the weekend
04:17forecast on our weekend weather bulletin on YouTube. Bye bye.