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00:00Game number four tonight in Dallas, the 2024 NBA finals. Is
00:08it over tonight? Does the NBA season in 2023-24 come to a
00:12close with Boston standing atop the association and
00:17championship number 18. That would be a record the most ever
00:21in the history of the NBA or can Dallas use its home floor
00:26advantage to force a game five and keep this series and its
00:31season afloat. That is the discussion. Boston now a very
00:37slight favorite. One point in the spread. Eight cents of
00:40difference minus 112 on that updated money line on the
00:44FanDuel Sportsbook. The over-under stands at 211 and a
00:49hook. We're talking about a virtual pick'em. There is not a
00:51large edge from the numbers although Boston will officially
00:55be listed as the favorite at least as of right now. We still
00:59have a long while till tip at 830 PM Eastern time. So I asked
01:03this question, Donnie, knowing we're talking about a virtual
01:06pick'em, but do you agree with the Celtics being a favorite in
01:09game four after the Mavericks were a three-point favorite in
01:12game three? Absolutely. Absolutely, I do because it's
01:16shown up that Chris Steps, Porzingis, or no Porzingis,
01:19we're going to be just fine here for the Celtics and a
01:21multitude of guys can step up and also baked into that number
01:24of game three. We all understood the task at hand,
01:27but the Dallas Mavericks didn't. You had to win that
01:30basketball game if you want to hang around in the series and
01:32they didn't. So a little bit of wind out of their sails. Also,
01:35what I'm looking forward to is here is you love to check in
01:37with the FanDuel Sportsbook to see where those bets are going.
01:40Hasn't changed all morning. It's roughly 70% of the tickets
01:43here coming in on the Boston Celtics, which does include 68%
01:47of the money. So the backing is there for Boston. I want to
01:50see as we get closer to game time what those feelings are
01:53because we know, yes, the public does bet throughout the
01:55day, but on a Friday night NBA Finals game, that money is
01:59going to start to flood in once people get off from work and
02:01get home. Interested to see what that final number would be.
02:05I actually would not be surprised if let's just say
02:07sharp money comes in and pushes the Dallas Mavericks to a
02:10slight favorite at minus one before game time. Just saying,
02:13okay, if we're looking at some of those future lines, games
02:15three and games four probably were supposed to be favorites
02:18here for the Dallas Mavericks. There weren't any major
02:20injuries on the Dallas Mavericks side. It's just that
02:22they lost game three. So why should we play game four? We
02:25know we can't come back in the series. That's where I'm
02:27keeping my eye on. I want to see what that number does before
02:30game time tonight and see if that public can push it around
02:33a little bit more. You would think the odds makers have
02:36these things power rated and they do not often change all
02:40that much based on wins and losses in terms of that game by
02:44game spread. They do get altered by betting and of
02:48course, any injuries three-point number in favor of
02:52Dallas in game number three, the Celtics in underdog for
02:56just the fourth time all year long. The first time this
02:59postseason, they went outright 10699 total at 211 and a hook.
03:05It is the smallest over under that we have seen in any of the
03:09four games so far. Game number one had a total at 216 and a
03:15under 215 and a hook 216 for game two 213 and a half for
03:20game number three. All three games so far have stayed well
03:25under that pregame total and Donnie, this will be the 13th
03:29time this postseason for Dallas that they have played in a game
03:34with a total greater than 210. The previous 1210 of the 12
03:39have gone under for the Mavericks. How do you equate
03:42what you think happens tonight with the total? Yeah, it seems
03:46and again, I'm going to stick to that philosophy and again,
03:48we're not really late into the series, but we're technically
03:51late into the series because one team has three wins already
03:53in three games. So I'm going to stick true to my format. I
03:56don't think we're going to see a wide open wheeling and dealing
03:59game between any of the teams because maybe the Dallas
04:02Mavericks come in a little bit loose and what do we have to
04:04lose? We're down three games. Let's just catch lightning in a
04:06bottle early. Push the tempo drop a lot of threes and see if
04:09we maybe can get back into this year's enough to force a game
04:12number five, but I don't think the Celtics been have that
04:14mentality. I think the Celtics are real loose. Hey, we're up
04:16three. Oh, but you're on the verge of clinching an NBA
04:19championship, which is the goal, which means let's make
04:22sure we lock these guys down. Let's take care of the
04:25basketball. If it's a three on two fast break that we don't
04:27have the momentum, pull it back out. Let's get a better shot as
04:30opposed to maybe in mid February. Just trying to ram
04:32it to the rim and see what happens at that point here. So
04:35for me, I'm going to stick to what I like and that 211 and a
04:37half. I think it stays under the total here and also did we
04:40point out the fact that what was it? The Dallas Mavericks
04:42haven't reached a hundred point Mark just yet. So all of a
04:44sudden they're going to score 125 against the Boston Celtics
04:47in a close that game. I don't think so. My lean tonight in
04:49this game that 211 and a half is towards the under 89, 98, 99,
04:56the three point totals and output offensively for Dallas.
04:59So far in this NBA championship series, they have failed to
05:03reach the century Mark and this is an elimination game. Dallas
05:08trying to stave off their season coming to a close. It is
05:13a potential series clincher where in the final few moments,
05:16if things are tight, that intensity ramps up even more.
05:22So if you are Dallas, right, where do you find that silver
05:26lining after game number three? Because we know what needed to
05:30course correct following the first two games. Kyrie Irving
05:33needed to be better. He was. In fact, he was the highest point
05:36scorer in game number three with thirty-five points.
05:39Despite Luka Doncic fouling out with four minutes and twelve
05:42seconds remaining in regulation, the Dallas duo
05:45outscored the Jays. I guess you're hoping that Luka Doncic
05:49plays through regulation and does not foul out. That's the
05:53silver lining. That's the wrinkle for the Mavs because I'm
05:56not so sure what they fall back on tonight. So we start with
06:00the Mavericks and their points prop thirty-two and a half for
06:03Luka Doncic probably would have cleared that had he played the
06:06final four minutes of regulation on Wednesday. Twenty-four and
06:10a half for Kyrie Irving who had not hit twenty, had not scored
06:14more than sixteen in Boston, finishes with thirty-five in
06:18game number three. How many points combined once again,
06:22Donnie? Does the Dallas duo need to get to if the Mavericks
06:25are going to win game number four? Oh, they better be in the
06:28sixties and I think there's a direct correlation here because
06:31if you pick out one player, right? We saw Kyrie go off and
06:34he has the ability to do that but this team will go as far as
06:37Luka Doncic takes him. If his head is in the game, he's not
06:39fighting with the referees, not fouling out with about five
06:42minutes to go. You expect him to shoot twenty-five plus times
06:45in this game because we know superstars the mentality. If
06:48we're going out here, it's not because I shot thirteen times
06:51and tried to get my other guys involved here. You gotta take
06:54this game over. So, I do think there's a direct correlation
06:57between that Luka Doncic's number by the way. Now, the
06:59thirty-two and a half and priced out of minus 128. So,
07:02the heavy juice going on that over number but I agree with
07:05that. We're not betting on the Dallas Mavericks B players.
07:08We're betting on Luka Doncic. He needs to be in the mid
07:10thirties for them to have a chance to win this game. Kyrie
07:13made four threes in game three. His three-point prop two and a
07:17half. Luka only made one for the first time this series not
07:20getting four. Three and a half number. More props on those
07:23next. So, I do wanna make this point finally on Luka Doncic's
07:27prop for tonight. Thirty-two and a half is the points prop.
07:30You would think he has to get close to that probably go over
07:33if Dallas is going to win its first game of the NBA finals in
07:37game number four trying to stave off elimination but in the
07:41first two games, Donnie, he made at least four threes. In
07:44fact, made four in both of those two games. In his three
07:48points prop was three and a half heavily juiced to the over. He
07:52only made one triple in game number three and of course,
07:55exited the game early after fouling out with more than four
07:59minutes remaining in regulation. The three-point
08:01prop now for Luka, three and a half the over it just minus 128.
08:05I do believe you are getting some value there. Now, we go to
08:09the other side of this matchup. The Boston Celtics and their
08:13duo, Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown. If this series is
08:17decided tonight, the most important conversation is who
08:21wins the individual award. The NBA finals MVP Brown right now
08:26minus 340 to win the hardware Jason Tatum at plus 270 and yet
08:31Tatum with a twenty-seven and a half point prop has a higher
08:34number than that of Jalen Brown at twenty-four and a hook. It
08:38is going to be fun to watch your plan. I'm sick of my guns
08:40at this point here. I do think it's going to be Jason Tatum
08:43has a big night tonight and also if he doesn't, it won't be
08:46for lack of trying. He's going to shoot twenty plus times
08:48easily. I look from the shoot right around twenty-five times
08:51tonight. So, we'll get some of these best bets out of the way
08:53and it will be some Boston, excuse me, Boston Celtics
08:57centric type wagers here that I'm waiting on here. Tatum, big
09:00night tonight. Again, we're not sure the next time that we
09:04speak to you if a fifth game of the 2024 NBA finals to preview
09:09probably just a recap of how everything played out in game
09:13number four. We could be looking at a historic post
09:16season run for the Boston Celtics eighty and twenty in
09:20their 100 games this year with a victory to close out the
09:24season in series tonight against Dallas sixteen and two
09:27throughout this playoff run. If they win tonight in the lone
09:32star state, that would be the fifth best mark in the history
09:35of the association and it would end with championship banner
09:39number eighteen being hung in Boston the most ever at NBA
09:43playoff history. It does bear repeating minus 8000 for the
09:47Celtics as the very heavy series outright favorites. This
09:51is the 157th time in NBA playoff history. The best of
09:56seven series has seen a team jump out to a three oh series
10:01advantage including both of the conference finals that we have
10:04seen throughout this post season in the previous 156
10:08times the team that was up three oh has won all 156 sets
10:14and only twelve times have we seen a team even when two
10:19straight games to force a game six just four times to force a
10:24game seven. So knowing all of that ahead of game four tonight
10:29in a huge weekend on the diamond around Major League
10:32Baseball and in downtown Omaha for the men's college World
10:36Series before we say farewell and goodbye. It is time for a
10:40best bet. It's time for bye. Bye. Bye.
10:47Donny right side. What is the best bet on this Friday? Yeah,
10:52we're going to go with the best bet on a Friday night here with
10:54the Boston Celtics. I'm going to lay the minus one. They will
10:56wrap up the NBA finals tonight and become the eighteenth
10:59champion for the Boston Celtics. We want some bonus
11:02action too. How about Jason Tatum 30 plus points at a plus
11:05140, which correlates right into a plus 270 MVP for the
11:10finals for Jason Tatum. So some bonus action to go along with
11:13the best bet Boston Celtics love that plus money Sprinkle
11:18my best betting game. Number four is Derek Lively for the
11:21Dallas Mavericks, the rookie reserve who comes off the
11:24bench, but has made a huge impact throughout this post
11:27season run for the Mavs and in the absence of Kristaps
11:30Porzingis in game three eleven points thirteen rebounds for
11:35Lively his rebound prop eight and a half the over some plus
11:38money his points prop also eight and a half. I like
11:42either one. I lean rebound first over eight and a half at
11:46a plus 106 price.