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00:00only a seven-game slate on this Monday around Major League Baseball, but still
00:07plenty to break down. We start this segment in Milwaukee, where the Brewers
00:12are the only team in the National League Central with a winning
00:16record at this moment. And the Brew crew today booked as a home favorite back in
00:19Milwaukee, minus 116 on the money line, but the Blue Jays on the other side, not
00:24all that far away. It was a pick'em, now 14 cents of difference, minus 116
00:29Brewers, minus 102 Blue Jays. Those are the money line numbers, total at eight
00:35and a half. What happens today between the Brew crew and the Blue Jays? Take a
00:39look at Jose Barrios on the mound here. Not too bad of a season, 128 batters, by
00:43the way, over the past 30 days. Decent numbers with iso power here at 157, and
00:47a weighted on base percentage of 302. The problem is he doesn't strike out a
00:50lot of batters, which means balls do get put into play. However, you take a look
00:54at the lineup that were associated tonight with the Brewers against right
00:57handed pitching over the past month, hasn't been all of that great. Reese
01:00Hoskins, 31 at bats against right handed pitching, a 259 iso and a 380 weighted on
01:05base percentage, probably the best of it here. But let's flip it over to the
01:08other side, because I do think this is an intriguing matchup. Colin Ray is
01:11going to be on the mound. If we take a look at the iso power numbers and
01:14weighted on base percentages here, they're actually high over the past 30
01:17days. A 190 iso and a 347 weighted on base percentage, if we include lefty and
01:22righty batters. But righties, he's been getting at it a pretty good clip.
01:25Lefties have been doing a lot of damage against him. But when we take a
01:29look at that roster here for the Toronto Blue Jays, it's always right
01:32handed dominant. There'll be a couple lefties in the lineup today. Spencer
01:35Horowitz just got brought up here. No real statistics to go off of here with
01:39right handed pitching as a lefty here. Dalton Varsho might be the best play in
01:42the lineup. 71 at bats against right handed pitching over the past month,
01:46then a 3 38 iso and a 3 42 weighted on base percentage. Now they said that 6
01:50to 7 of these batters are plus against right handed pitching, but also keep
01:54in mind, as I said, the lefties are doing the damage and we don't have a
01:57lot of lefty batters in this lineup tonight for Toronto. So something does
02:01have to give. I actually would give a slight bump here though to Toronto in
02:04this game. I think their lineup has a better capability of hitting and I do
02:07think they have the better pitcher on the mound.
02:10So when we look at Milwaukee, the brew crew swept last week in Philadelphia in
02:14their midweek set, then went to Detroit, won the first two games, lost the
02:18finale yesterday. Tarek Scouble continues to light it up. He is now 81
02:23with a 192 E. R. A. 10 Ks yesterday, 10 to victory for the Tigers over the
02:29Brewers. But I'll make this point about Milwaukee. 6.5 game lead 11 games
02:34above 500 and again 6.5 game advantage in the National League Central. A lot
02:39of baseball left to play. The Reds playing better. The Cardinals finding
02:44their footing. Even the Pirates are pretty good. And can the Cubbies ever
02:47turn it around? We shall see. But Milwaukee is only being booked as a
02:52minus 1 80 favorite to win the National League Central. Yeah, it's still minus
02:56money. But when are we going to start to see the odds truly grown Milwaukee's
03:00favor? I still think you're getting a pretty good price on the brew crew.
03:04Where is the fork as we enter this new week for the Houston Astros? They won
03:10the weekend set against the Angels in Anaheim. They keep it going now in
03:15California up to the Bay. They go against the Giants were Houston and
03:18Spencer Arrighetti booked as a slight favorite today by the Bay total at
03:23eight pure pitchers ballpark. Not great pitchers on the mound though. You take
03:27a look at Kyle Harrison on the season, a 1 62 ISO and a 3 42 waited on base
03:31percentage, which isn't bad here. If you fast forward that over to the past 30
03:34days, it does rise slightly at a 1 87 ISO and a 3 84 waited on base
03:39percentage. Right handed batters getting the best of him. He is a left
03:42handed pitcher, 93 batters that he's faced over the past month. A 205 ice
03:46one awaited on base percentage of 3 89. If you look at the lineup, it looks
03:50decent here for the Houston Astros. A lot of right handers will be in that
03:53lineup. The only left he predicted, which would be Jordan Alvarez. I do
03:56think they have a legitimate shot on their end. If we flip it over to the
03:59other side, Spencer Arrighetti, who opened up the season, not very good at
04:03all. But over the past 30 days, he's been much better. Been 111 batters.
04:06He's facing ice of 0 74 and a weighted on base percentage of 2 94. You know
04:11that lineup for the Giants isn't really all that great. So if we're saying to
04:15ourselves, all right, Arrighetti is going to be on the road. So you get a
04:18little bit of a downgrade. But again, it's a true pitchers ballpark as
04:21opposed to where he usually pitches down in Houston, which is the hitters
04:24ballpark. Give me a slight lean towards the Houston Astros in this game as
04:28maybe that fork continues to stay out of them here
04:32right now. A slight favorite and to Donny's point, Arrighetti has been much
04:36better in the last two weeks, pretty much the last month for Houston. And we
04:40know the Astros need all the pitching help they can get with the injuries
04:43starting to stack up for that H town staff. Now we go to the only team in
04:48the American League West that is above 500. That's the Seattle Mariners. In
04:52fact, the only team in the A. O. S. That is three games below 500 or better.
04:58The Seattle Mariners at minus 210 right now a hefty favorite against MLB's
05:03worst team, the Chicago White Sox, who did snap a 14 game losing skid this
05:08weekend against the Red Sox. They actually split the weekend series a
05:13four game set in the Battle of the Sox, but still the only team in Major
05:18League Baseball to not reach the 20 win threshold. They only have 17 at this
05:23moment. Should it be an easy Monday start for the M's? I don't know if
05:28it's gonna be that easy, and I don't know if that price point is all that
05:30warrant because let's take a look. Looking Gilbert's a very good pitcher
05:33and where they playing at in Seattle, which is notorious for being a true
05:36pitcher's ballpark. But having said that, Luis Roberts back in the lineup
05:39hitting very well right out of the gate. Paul Young has been absolutely
05:42sensational over the past month against right handed pitching at 300
05:45ISO and a 3 92 weighted on base percentage. As I said, you do have some
05:49good splits there for Logan Gilbert. One of those guys in Major League
05:52Baseball of the past couple years, particularly with the Washington
05:54Nationals that you love to fade was Eric Fetty. But take a look at his
05:58seasonal numbers here, Ben 311 batters. He's faced a 1 33 ice on a 2 91
06:02weighted on base percentage that axes improved over the past month to it. Oh,
06:0688 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 2 79. That's not a great
06:10hitting lineup for Seattle today. You probably will be looking more towards
06:13the under, but this might be a sneaky chance to take the White Sox close to
06:16a 2 to 1 price here.
06:18Yeah, the team with the third worst record in Major League Baseball. That's
06:22the Colorado Rockies. They have 23 wins, but they're a hefty underdog on the
06:26road today in Minnesota. The twins a minus 2 30 home money line favorite
06:31over under is eight. What happens today in Minneapolis? Yeah, one of the more
06:37talented players on the Rockies. I believe went to the aisle yesterday
06:39with Roger. So already an incomplete lineups that's going to show up. But
06:42Chris Paddock, you take a look at the Minnesota Twins as a favorite in this
06:45game. Not all that great on the mound last month here. 119 batters face close
06:49to a 200 on his ISO power number and a weighted on base percentage right
06:53around average at 3 22. The question is going to be is what performance are we
06:57going to get out of Dakota Hudson here? 117 batters. He's face been actually
07:02pretty good at a 1 27 ISO power number to weighted on base percentage of 2 95.
07:06But he does get dominated by left handed bats. The only question is how
07:10many left? He's going to be in the lineup today for those Minnesota Twins.
07:12Tough price point there,
07:14Donnie. You mentioned this Monday slate short, albeit not your favorite. Just
07:19seven games, maybe some plus money sprinkles in the best fat.
07:23Only seven games on this Monday MLB slate in three of the seven feature a
07:29team that is greater than a $2 favorite. Might we see some plus money sprinkles?
07:34Donnie just kind of broke it down with the two previous $2 favorites in
07:39Minnesota. The Twins against the Rocks, maybe not deserving of it. And in
07:44Seattle, the Mariners against the worst team in MLB. That's the Chicago White
07:48Sox. Donnie's not sure that in that game, the Mariners are deserving of
07:52that $2 price. What about in San Diego in the California contest between the
07:57athletics and the Padres? The pods minus 2 20 but below 500 this season.
08:04This might be a sneaky total to the over game, even though some of these
08:08offenses might be better off against some different matchups. Take a look at
08:11Estes on the mound today. 107 batters he's faced over the past 30 days. You
08:15take a look at his iso power number 1 82 and a weighted on base percentage of
08:182 77. It's not all that bad, but he does get damaged a bit by left handed
08:22batters. Only question again is going to be how many lefties will we see from
08:25San Diego tonight? Looks like a rise pro for Cronenworth, Peralta and
08:29Merrill. So five out of the nine batters he anticipated to be from the
08:32left side. That might be a little sneaky there and also Oakland on the
08:35other side. Dylan ceases on the mound. You take a look at the seasonal
08:38statistics through 305 batters. He's faced. It's very good, Ben at a 1 38
08:42isolated, weighted on base percentage of 2 55. But let's just go in the last
08:4530 days and have 120 batter view 207. Iso 3 47 weighted on base percentage.
08:52The lineup doesn't present all that well for Oakland, but both lefty
08:55batters and righty batters are getting the best of Dylan sees over the past
08:58month here. J. J. Bulde, who late in the game yesterday, cash in RBI
09:01properly. He's the best in that lineup. 92 at bats against right into
09:05pitching of the past month. 2 59 Iso 3 52 weighted on base percentage. Even
09:09though the numbers don't show all that great for either one of these lineups,
09:12I think these two pitchers can be hit tonight and maybe a total looks like
09:15that should be in the cards.
09:17I mean, it's just seven, right? I think that seven is baking in the Dylan sees
09:22gets the start for San Diego, who has been good for a good majority of this
09:26MLB campaign. But it really is fascinating in the National League West
09:30where the Dodgers have been dominant. They've won the divisional crown 10 of
09:34the last 11 years, and this year they were booked as a heavy favorite, of
09:37course, with all that they did this offseason greater than a $6 favorite to
09:42begin this year. Minus 600 win the National League West. Now it's even
09:46more than that, as the Dodgers have an eight game lead and nobody else in the
09:50division is above 500 except for L. A.