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00:00 the Boston Celtics with a 1 0 series lead in their conference semifinal set against the Cleveland Cavaliers a -8000 favorite let me repeat that -8000 favorite for Boston to win their second round series against Cleveland and because of that and how the rest of the playoff path now looks the Celtics have become a - money odds on favorite to win the MLS title.
00:29 - 120 again, Boston - 120 into an odds on - money category for the first time in this NBA playoff run part of that is because of what is happening in the Western Conference with the reigning champs in the Western Conference favorites entering this postseason the Nuggets down in the O2 hole against the Timberwolves part of that is because the Sixers the Bucks the Heat all have been eliminated from Eastern Conference playoffs.
00:58 - Western Conference playoff contention as well but for the first time this playoff run DRS we see an odds on favorite to win the Larry O'Brien trophy and it's the Boston Celtics.
01:08 - Yeah and these lines are going to move on a day-to-day basis there's no doubt about that you take a look at the Minnesota Timberwolves at that plus 300 price that's the one that's getting shorter to watch and also still a lot of value on OKC here at that plus 650 price but also if we're trying to see if one of these teams can make that climb we talked about it yesterday how about this a 15 to 1 price we saw yesterday on the Denver Nuggets that's now sitting at 16 to 1 so you're getting maximum value.
01:37 - You're getting maximum value there if you think the reigning champions can actually climb back into the series but also the Boston Celtics at a minus 115 price we talked about this yesterday is it a price I want to bet no but when you look at the path to just to get to the finals it's so much easier than the Timberwolves and the Thunder and the New York Knicks and the Nuggets right because they're the favorites here they're supposed to get there with ease we'll see if it plays out that way but for me that 16 to 1 price it's still calling me out here Ben it still is man.
02:04 - Yeah listen I get it I understand it the Cavaliers are down 0-1 to Boston and they're a 170 to 1 the Nuggets are down 0-2 to Minnesota and they're just 16 to 1 right now again at this point last week Denver and Boston separated by just over a buck it was plus 115 for the Seas to win the NBA title it was plus 230 for the Nugs how much difference a seven week or a seven day span can make.
02:33 We also for the first time Donnie are seeing a new market available within these NBA championship odds that's Boston versus the field the Celtics minus 115 to win the NBA championship minus 110 for any of the other seven teams east or west to win the NBA title still remaining in these playoffs in the association that includes all four teams out west and what we still expect to be a tightly contested race for that conference series.
03:02 - Yeah and we're still in that conference crown Donnie we've made a couple of comparisons between Boston and UConn throughout the stretch run of the regular season now into the playoffs of course with the Connecticut Huskies in their title defense to go back to back of which they accomplished and they were such a short favorite entering the big dance and throughout their NCAA tournament dominance once again and the question we would ask is there a team still left in the bracket is there a team a part of this field that's going to be able to win the NBA title?
03:31 Is there a team a part of this field that presents a challenge for UConn?
03:35 And the answer really was no could somebody in a one game scenario knock them off maybe now it's a seven game series scenario against the Boston Celtics I'm not sure there's a team in the Eastern Conference that I would look at and say ooh they present a challenge from a matchup perspective for the Celtics but I do believe that a couple of the teams out in the Western Conference in a seven game series for an NBA title defense.
04:00 So the Boston Celtics in a seven game series for an NBA championship on the line do present some challenges for the C's.
04:06 Yeah look they're going to get tested here and let's just say we have it a formalities the Boston Celtics do move on to the Eastern Conference finals and so do the New York Knicks.
04:15 They're going to get tested and tough here and Brunson can be that guy that can go off on any single game shoot 30 times a game score 45 points we've seen that before but we really think the test is going to come from the Western Conference when it's either going to be the Minnesota Timberwolves or OKC.
04:29 When we talk about that field bet yes you get everybody else going up against the Celtics but half of those teams you just throw out immediately and then you say to yourself well who's going to be the viable option and it would be the Tee Wills and the Thunder.
04:40 Now those are really good question marks they're both really good basketball teams but having said that they're not home court advantage once they get to the finals where the Celtics are a a really good team and B can barely beat them on their home court.
04:52 That's the tough part here which is why we lose that UConn theory. Yes they're the best there's other valuable teams out there that will be playing the Celtics but the Celtics run through the east is easier than what the run through the west is.
05:02 And once you get there how much you can have left in the tank because Minnesota and OKC are going to do battle against each other where you might have the Celtics win a five or an easier six game series against the New York Knicks.
05:12 Those are always the things I like to look at. So for me I don't like the price at 115 but if you ask me now who's going to win the championship it's going to be the Boston Celtics.
05:19 Yeah because I know they'll be in the finals and I know Ben they have home court advantage. The Celtics are now a minus 400 favorite to win the Eastern Conference Championship.
05:30 I wonder what a series outright price would be against either New York of course shorter or the Indiana Pacers of course the Knicks a 1 0 series lead against Indiana.
05:40 Game number two inside the garden is tonight. It's the only game of playoff action in the association on this Wednesday evening slate.
05:49 But let's go to the Western Conference because again Boston's a minus 400 favorite to win the East. Let's go to the Western Conference.
05:57 We're entering yesterday after the Timberwolves take a 2 0 series lead against the Nuggets.
06:02 They go into minus money to win the Western Conference crown for the first time. Are you surprised however DRS that OKC did not close that gap after their dominant performance in the opening game of their series against Dallas.
06:17 I'm not surprised by the notion where for myself if I would reset the odds market that wouldn't be correct because I'd have Oklahoma City a little bit closer to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
06:25 We have to understand how these sports books will operate. Those numbers are dictated by the wagers that are coming in.
06:31 And if most people are looking at the Timberwolves as the ultimate threat in the Western Conference to challenge the Celtics out of the east then that is price appropriate.
06:38 And quite frankly you're watching a Timberwolves team literally dismantle one of the most talented teams in the NBA in the Suns and then say OK well the Nuggets and they messed around the regular season blew that last week.
06:48 I believe they lost to the San Antonio Spurs to cough up that number one overall seed but it doesn't matter where the seed is there.
06:53 They know how to win. They won it last year. They'll do it again this year against untested teams in OKC and Minnesota.
06:58 So vice versa. That's why you're getting that minus 115 because we're watching in real time a true superstar and Anthony Edwards a team that plays crazy defense a team that went into Denver.
07:08 One of those home court advantages you're not supposed to win games and easily won two games and now going back to Minnesota.
07:14 So I can't fault the sports book where they're at because I do think the betting patterns are still saying to us Ben the Minnesota Timberwolves are the better team overall.
07:22 But I just think it's a slight OK school again if they do meet in the Western Conference finals I'm anticipating that OKC is the home court advantage here.
07:30 That's massive. It doesn't matter if it's Denver. Oklahoma City as the number one seed in the West has home for advantage.
07:39 They have played five playoff games so far this postseason three in Oklahoma City.
07:44 They have won all three two of them by 22 points plus one by 30.
07:52 Here's the thing. Oklahoma City in my mind there's been a little bit of reshuffling in these prices.
07:57 Boston minus 360 to win the East. Still a very hefty favorite minus 115 on Minnesota as of this Wednesday evening.
08:05 Not from those numbers in the overnight hour but is Oklahoma City even against the Timberwolves.
08:10 And let's say the Timberwolves pull off a four game series sweep or a gentleman sweep against Denver.
08:16 I expect the Nuggets to get at least one victory here in that set against the Teewolves.
08:21 What is the number for Oklahoma City in a Western Conference finals where they would have home for advantage against Minnesota.
08:28 Are the Timberwolves going to be that strong of a favorite. Are the Timberwolves going to be favored even outright.
08:34 I think there's a lot of value even at this point on the Thunder.
08:38 Yeah I think the Timberwolves actually will be outright favorites here.
08:42 But we're talking about like a minus one to one tier so price at that point because it also matters.
08:46 If you do have Minnesota sweeping the Denver Nuggets out of the playoffs after sweeping the Suns that's going to go a long way.
08:53 But also OKC sweeping the Dallas Mavericks and I know how that'll play out.
08:56 Come on man. Injuries eye on round number one. You know Luke was on one leg.
09:00 I don't give him any credit even though the probably eight and 0 before they head into the Timberwolves series.
09:04 That's how it's going to play out here for me.
09:07 Yeah it's really interesting because Denver was a minus 2 0 5 favorite before this series got started.
09:14 The Timberwolves played that underdog role against both Denver and Phoenix could be a favorite to win the West if they reach that point.
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