Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00A full Friday slayed around Major League Baseball, all 30 clubs in action, 15 games that dot the docket on this Friday, entering a new weekend around the bigs.
00:11Donnie, right side has made it to a good Friday, as have all of you.
00:16Really good matchup tonight in Arlington.
00:19The Rangers completing a sweep yesterday of the other Los Angeles team, their divisional foes in the Halos.
00:25Tonight in Arlington, the Dodgers enter in Texas.
00:31Rangers and Dodgers tonight.
00:32L.A., a slight road favorite, as you would expect, but not nearly as strong as that number, minus 136.
00:39Now the updated price, Yoshi Yamamoto goes off against Jacob DeGrom, over-understands at 8.
00:46DRS, before we dive into the game, a question here for our producer, Joe Frizzo, to get into our earpieces and let us know.
00:53So yesterday, as we were getting this show ready, doing the notes, getting ready, pre-production, all that stuff,
00:59I am pretty sure that this headline for this game was World Series preview, question mark.
01:05Why the change, Joe?
01:07Have we lost faith in either the Dodgers or the Rangers to be there at the end of October?
01:16Didn't want to be attacked on a Friday, and yet he still was asked questions live on air.
01:21All right, to the game, DRS. Dodgers, a slight road favorite, with Yamamoto on the bump.
01:26What do you see happening tonight in Arlington?
01:28Yeah, if you're looking at just names on the mound, like, whoa, DeGrom's back, should be able to dominate tonight.
01:32Maybe he does, but coming into the season here, again, limited access last year, looking to regain that Cy Young form that he had with the New York Mets.
01:39He's had 14 and two-thirds innings pitched, a 4.30 ERA, and a 4.62 XFIP number, which isn't very good.
01:45Now, conversely, look at the opposite side here, and that's Yamamoto's, 22 innings pitched on the season, Ben, a 1.23 ERA, translating to a 2.19 XFIP number.
01:55So the better pitcher on the mound today is not Jacob DeGrom, it's with the Dodgers.
01:59So you're looking at that price point on the road at minus 146 or so, that does make some sense.
02:03And understand this, too, looking at right-handed pitching against that Dodgers lineup hasn't worked out all that well.
02:09Elevated ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages all throughout that lineup.
02:12If you want to pick your poison with DeGrom, 26 batters he's faced as a right-handed pitcher against right-handed talent at the plate.
02:19An 0.40 ISO and a 2.12 weighted on base percentage.
02:21You have to like that.
02:22However, you got lefties in that lineup like Otani, Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto, Tommy Edmond, who's a switch hitter,
02:28and the same thing with Max Muncy batting from the left-hand side.
02:31Jacob DeGrom, through 37 batters this year, has high elevated ISO power numbers at 452 and also weighted on base percentage at 456.
02:38So if I'm looking to attack from a prop perspective, it would be the left-handed bats going up against Jacob DeGrom.
02:43But I got to tell you, very rarely that you would see a home team in Texas, which is a quality team, going up against the Dodgers.
02:49And look at that price point and say, I think the Dodgers might be a little bit cheap today.
02:52They should get to DeGrom a bit.
02:54And you take a look again at Yamamoto.
02:56He's been really good.
02:57That minus 146 price, buyable for the Dodgers today.
03:01Yeah, I certainly think so, DRS.
03:03Maybe some buyback in the idea that DeGrom is starting.
03:06And again, the Rangers did complete the series sweep yesterday against their divisional foes in the Halos.
03:1212-7 record for Texas now, best among the American League West.
03:16They've got a two-game advantage over the Mariners early on for that top spot.
03:21You know who is struggling in the AL West?
03:24In fact, in the cellar at this moment, the Astros.
03:27Two games sub-500 at 8-10.
03:30But at home tonight to start off a weekend series in H-Town against the San Diego Padres.
03:36All right, San Diego.
03:38Southern California's beautiful Petco Park.
03:41One of the most beautiful ballparks in all of the bigs.
03:44And it's been great for the Padres.
03:46They're 12-1 in 13 games at home this year.
03:5115-4 overall.
03:53But now they have to go on the road.
03:55What does that mean for the Padres tonight as an underdog against the Strohs?
03:59Do you want to have heart or do you want to go with Augusto with the two pitchers on the mound today in this one?
04:04You take a look at Augusto on the mound here for the Astros.
04:07He's actually coming in decent form.
04:08Only 12 innings pitch.
04:09But how about this?
04:09A 3 ERA and a 3.0 XFIP number.
04:13You take a look at his price points here based on 29 batters faced from the right-hand side.
04:17Keep in mind, he's a right-handed pitcher.
04:19An 0-37 ISO and a 2-14 weighted on base percentage.
04:22Only 17 batters he's faced from the left-hand side.
04:24They've roughed him up a little bit to a 4-38 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 4-15.
04:29You take a look at the lineup today.
04:31A rise will bat from the left-hand side.
04:32Gavin Sheets as well as Hayward and also Wade.
04:35But not a lot of great statistics from those left-handed batters going up in those matchups.
04:39If we go to the other side and we were talking about Hart on the line here today,
04:43which is Kyle Hart, the left-handed pitcher for the San Diego Padres.
04:46No statistics last year.
04:48This year getting lefties out but not getting right-handed batters out.
04:50But here's where you sort of have to buy in a little bit.
04:53You see that price point, minus 138.
04:55They might have the better pitcher on the mound today, numbers-wise.
04:58But look at the Astros lineup versus lefties this season.
05:00It's been terrible.
05:02Outside of Jordan Alvarez, who actually is a left-handed batter, a 3-56 weighted on base percentage.
05:07And Diaz, 3-50.
05:08Everybody else, ISO power and weighted on base percentage is really, really bad at that point.
05:13So I don't know how many runs we're getting in Houston tonight.
05:16I do think the price point is correct, theoretically, because the better pitcher on the mound is with Houston.
05:21But it's a game I probably would stay away from because I just don't like that lineup for the Houston Astros tonight against any left-handed pitcher, to be honest.
05:28D.R.S., a lot of interleague intrigue this weekend.
05:32Seven of our 15 weekend sets, nearly half, feature an interleague matchup that includes even in the same state.
05:38To Anaheim, we go tonight.
05:40The Halos hosting the San Francisco Giants, coming off a four-game midweek set in Philadelphia against the Phils.
05:47They split that four-game set, losing the finale yesterday.
05:50Logan Webb gets the start today for San Francisco in Southern California against the Halos.
05:56And the Giants are a road favorite.
05:58Total is eight.
05:59What's the play today in Anaheim?
06:01Yeah, starting to fall back here for the Angels at this point.
06:03And also, Logan Webb wasn't all that great in his last start, I believe, was against the New York Yankees.
06:06But they did win that game outright in the end with some pretty good offensive structure.
06:11Logan Webb on the mound comes in.
06:12Again, fantastic last year.
06:14Fantastic again this year.
06:15But the key is going to be is, when does that fall off start to happen for the Angels when you just take a look at the individual batters?
06:20Because against right-handed pitching, they still stack up really well all up and down that roster.
06:25But now you're starting to see like that, okay, some of that lull is starting to hit them as a team at this point.
06:30You take a look at Tyler Anderson on the mound, who is a left-handed pitcher, which I always think is funny,
06:33where he's so good against right-handed bats and so bad against left-handed bats.
06:38But as you know, Major League Baseball, regardless of those statistics,
06:41the other team is not just going to stack left-handed batters against a left-handed pitcher.
06:45You take a look at Jung-Hoo Lee, who outside of one game in Philadelphia had a pretty good series and a really good start to the season.
06:50He's a lefty.
06:51He's done really good damage against left-handed pitching.
06:53But as you go down the rest of that roster, it's all right-handed bats in that lineup.
06:58So from a prop perspective, it's probably Jung-Hoo Lee in the middle of that lineup.
07:01But you're still trying to give deference to the Angels starting to fall off.
07:04Can you just take San Francisco, better pitcher on the mound, and maybe the better lineup, probably the way to go.
07:09Jung-Hoo Lee, plus 175 tonight, DRS against the Angels to record an RBI.
07:15Feels like a pretty good price.
07:16Some more MLB previews coming your way up next.
07:19A lot of interleague intrigue this weekend around Major League Baseball,
07:22but also some good divisional matchups that we have in Philadelphia.
07:27What an ace affair we have on this Friday night in the bank.
07:31Zach Wheeler and the Phils, greater than a $2 favorite on that money line at minus 220.
07:37But on the other side, Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins come to town this weekend.
07:42Over-understands at 7.5 DRS.
07:45How does the series start tonight in Philly?
07:48If you're just reading lines, that's the Philadelphia line.
07:50Because as you stated, Zach Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball.
07:53But Sandy Alcantara certainly has the ability to be a top-end start
07:56and has been that in the past prior to his injury.
07:59A little bit of a slower start to him this season.
08:014.70 ERA, 3.94 XFIP, which isn't terrible.
08:05But you're really handicapping this game based on what Zach Wheeler is supposed to do
08:09to the lineup for the Miami Marlins.
08:10Because when we look at the Phillies lineup against, let's just say,
08:12any right-handed pitcher this year, it's been very good.
08:15And just based on Bryson Stott all the way through JT Romuto,
08:18which is the first seven batters in the lineup, high ISO power numbers
08:21and weighted on-base percentage and limited strikeouts,
08:23and increased walk rate, which should help you there.
08:25And I'm saying, Alcantara's a very good pitcher.
08:27But the question, again, is the Marlins lineup and what do you get out of it?
08:30Like, Zach Wheeler has struggled at times with right-handed batters.
08:33But Xavier Edwards, Jesus Sanchez, Connor Norby, Stowers, Mervis, Lopez,
08:38Conan, Hicks, and Hill, it's a terrible lineup for the Marlins.
08:41Maybe the most least talented lineup in baseball outside of, let's just say,
08:44the Chicago White Sox on a night-to-night basis.
08:46So there's that price point that you look at.
08:49Hey, I'm getting Alcantara and I'm getting a plus 188.
08:51Just sign me up and I'll see where it is.
08:52And maybe the Phillies bats will continue to struggle.
08:55I'm on the opposite side.
08:56I look at that 220 price and say, I don't necessarily want to pay it,
08:59but I can see it.
08:59Like, what's your worst case scenario today with Zach Wheeler?
09:0266 degrees and a double-digit wind blowing out the center field does help the batters.
09:06But honestly, if you tell me, like, the Marlins' max run stay is three,
09:10the Phillies are going to win this baseball game.
09:12And that's where I leave that.
09:14Yeah, for sure, DRS.
09:15A 2-0 record for Alcantara this year, but a 4-7-0 ERA, as DRS alluded to.
09:20He has allowed multiple earned runs, at least two in each of his three starts.
09:25He has only thrown at most 91 pitches that he did back on opening day for the Fish.
09:31He's been an innings eater throughout his career.
09:33Certainly was when he won the 2022 NL Cy Young Award,
09:37but missed all of last season, still finding his way back on the bump.
09:41Part of why you see that pricing.
09:43Philadelphia, in its third series of the season, of course, knocked off the Dodgers.
09:48They were off to a 7-2 start in their three series since.
09:52Not a series victory.
09:53Did split the four-game set against the Giants this week,
09:56hoping to win the series this weekend against Miami.
10:00We head down to Tampa, where the Yankees are on the road,
10:04but in a familiar spot, of course, in their spring training home.
10:08Bronx South, as we're calling it, George Steinbrenner Field.
10:11The Yankees victorious yesterday, 6-3 in the weekend series opener against Tampa.
10:16Game number two of a four-game set today against the Rays.
10:20As we see it there, DRS, looking at those odds for game number two.
10:25Just tracking it down here on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
10:27Why am I missing it?
10:28There it is.
10:29The Yankees, a slight favorite.
10:31Now, as we see, Carlos Rodon gets the nod today for the pinstripes.
10:35What do you expect in Tampa?
10:38Yeah, this game, last night, you're taking a look at,
10:40oh, how good's Will Warren going to do?
10:41It wasn't very good.
10:42They yanked him right away.
10:43Didn't even make it out of the second inning,
10:44and they still end up winning that baseball game.
10:46So, this is the handicap as it starts,
10:47because the much better lineup is with the New York Yankees.
10:50But hear me out on this.
10:51Drew Rasmussen, last year, Ben, 116 batters face, stellar numbers, 046 ISO,
10:57and a 244 weighted on base percentage,
10:59dominated both right-handed and also left-handed batters.
11:02Keep in mind, he's a right-handed pitcher.
11:03This season, 54 batters that he's faced,
11:06and you take a look at his lineup through 15 innings,
11:08an 060 ERA and a 2.74 XF number, which is really good.
11:13You look at his splits this year,
11:14ISO power numbers through 54 batters, Ben, it's a zero.
11:17No extra base hits.
11:18A weighted on base percentage combined, a 174,
11:22a high K rate, and a low walk rate.
11:24Now, you have to extrapolate those numbers
11:25and take into effect the Yankees lineup,
11:27which Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm,
11:31Wells, and Dominguez against right-handed pitching
11:33all have really high ISO power numbers.
11:35So, you don't want to go down that path like,
11:36oh, the Yankees batters will hit and they'll be fine, because why?
11:39Look at that lineup today for Tampa Bay.
11:41Going up against Rodon, who's not a great pitcher,
11:43not having a great season, didn't have a great season last year,
11:45but that lineup doesn't hit left-handed pitching at all.
11:49Yandy Diaz leading off a 462 ISO
11:51and a weighted on base percentage at 474 against lefties.
11:54Fantastic.
11:54Jose Caballero in that lineup hit about fifth today.
11:58545 ISO, 622 weighted on base percentage.
12:01Everybody else is basically a zero ISO power number
12:04and a terrible weighted on base percentage.
12:07So, if you're just betting the better pitcher,
12:09technically it's Tampa,
12:10but boy, if you're expecting to win two to one,
12:12that's a pretty low threshold to say
12:14we don't have much of a margin for error.
12:15That's what makes it tough.
12:16But also, look at that line perspective.
12:19Really light, basically a coin flip.
12:21Sometimes you just want to ride the better pitcher
12:22that they'll get it together,
12:23and maybe you do that tonight.
12:25We also have some day baseball,
12:27a Friday at Wrigley in early spring.
12:29Total 11 at the friendly confines.
12:32Win.
12:32You know why.
12:33Blow it out.
12:34So, we would see.
12:35We'll see.