Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00as our entire rest of this final hour is about the Home Run Derby between Donny Rightside and
00:05myself and then a Home Run Prop King on a Monday. A little prop perspective for the Derby as well
00:12with Tom Vecchio. There are so many different ways to bet the Home Run Derby on the FanDuel
00:16Sportsbook. So we'll set the stage for what we are going to see on this Monday. The eight
00:21contestants, the dimensions that you need to know, some of the history behind the Derby,
00:25the format, and all of that to give you those winning wagers. So let's start with the field
00:30in Arlington, the home of course of the Texas Rangers, Globe Life Field. Left field 329,
00:39left center 372 feet, to straightaway center 407, right center 374, and down the right field line
00:48326. It should be noted that six of the eight contestants are going to swing
00:56from the left side box. No, I said that wrong. The right-handed box. They are righties,
01:01so they will be on the left side of the plate is what I meant. Anyway, six righties, only two
01:08lefties. So you would expect a lot of the Home Runs flying over that left field fence.
01:14Now, here's also, you know me, Ben, like, you know, being an RBI guy and seeing how guys can
01:18power the baseball. Here's what's interesting about this. And like, I guess I feel like I
01:23slander every city equally, even Philadelphia. Let's go down to Texas and slander the entire
01:27state at this point. The one thing we have a running joke with here on the money line is how
01:32I crush Houston sports fans. And it's not because I don't think they're a good fan base. No, yes,
01:36you get angry at the Houston Astros for cheating and winning World Series. I get that. We'll take
01:40that out of the equation, but I always get a kick out of it's like they have a beautiful
01:43ballpark that when they open the roof, it is spectacular looking, but it's open like once a
01:48year because it's apparent that if the temperature is not 81 degrees, they will either melt or
01:54freeze. So it never can open unless the temperature is exactly 81 degrees. Here's the issue tonight,
01:59why it does come into play. You're looking at a temperature today in Arlington, Texas,
02:04of a hundred and two degrees. So this is a retractable dome stadium, which you saw in that
02:10picture we put up on the graphic. If that roof was open and we had that heat in the building,
02:15the sky would be the limit on where these baseballs then would be traveling here.
02:20But the fact of the matter is that roof is going to be closed. The air condition will be on. The
02:25humidity will be low. So if you're looking for home runs to just get out of there, sure,
02:30they're going to hit a lot of them, but I don't know how long that's going to go. Like, let's
02:32just say you're back in Coors Field just a few short years ago. That's when they said, OK,
02:36it's outdoors. It's going to be warm. That ball is going to fly. Well, the conditions would be
02:40so much more different if you had, let's just say, 90 degree temperatures by the time we started
02:45Home Run Derby tonight down in Arlington. You remember the last day of that, which the old
02:49globe life, I guess it was called at this point. That ball was an absolute tank fest in there
02:53because how hot it was. That's why they have a retractable dome now, because it was so hot for
02:58the fans. They felt they couldn't just sit out there in the summer months, even at night. I wish
03:02the roof was open just for tonight's action. That would be so much fun. It would be pinball
03:07inside that ballpark. But the fact that we're going to have Eric in this thing,
03:10that's going to tamper some of the expectations for me.
03:13484 and a half. What is that number? The over under for the long run hit tonight in the 2024
03:20Home Run Derby. If it was a couple of summers ago back in 2022 in Denver at mile high at Coors
03:27Field, that number would have been so far over one. So no one that went five hundred and twenty
03:35feet. It was ridiculous. It's the longest home run in the history of the Home Run Derby in the
03:41stat cast era starting in twenty sixteen. A lot of the longest ever hit homers happened back at
03:47Coors Field in the summer of twenty twenty one. A couple in Miami again, open air, hot human ball
03:56travels. Maybe not tonight. Now let's beat the derby contestants, all eight of them in this year's
04:02field in twenty twenty four, five of the eight appearing for the first time. The only three
04:09hitters that have been here multiple times. That's Pete Alonzo in his fifth appearance. He has won
04:15two home run derby titles, Jose Ramirez and Adoles Garcia, the hometown guy in Garcia. So as we look
04:24at some of what we have tonight, eight contestants getting ready to go in Pete Alonzo in the chase
04:32for his third ever derby title is the favorite DRS. Yeah, he should be the favorite at this point.
04:38It's a guy that's been there and done that before has won these. And also doesn't just check out as
04:42the consummate home run hitter where, yes, we know he's won a couple of titles, but also how long he
04:46can hit the baseball. When I take a look at the home run derby, forget about like handicapping
04:50itself. Who's going to win? Give me like eight Pete Alonzo's because it's so much fun to watch
04:55with the ability to hit home runs and hit them for a distance. That's what we love about the
04:59competition. Now, granted, we'll watch and we get excited where, you know, back in the day,
05:02Philadelphia feels Bobby Bray. You I believe one of these wasn't launching bombs all over the place,
05:07but you get into that groove of just hitting them out there three hundred seventy five feet
05:10repeatedly. That's usually the best strategy. So it's interesting to see going in like who's going
05:14to hit the longest one, because, yes, they do want to put on the show. They want to have that
05:18record as I hit the longest home run at home run derby. That's fun, but that doesn't necessarily
05:22get you the win. It doesn't get you any more points, per se, of like I'm going to win it
05:26because I had the longest home run at this point. That's worth five home runs. So that's something
05:30to keep an eye on. But I do agree that Pete Alonzo should be the favorite and also probably
05:34the betting favorite to the public here, I would assume, would be Pete Alonzo.
05:39Yeah, he certainly is. As of right now, three to one, the price on Pete Alonzo victorious
05:45in his first two derby attempts, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty one. The last two summers have come
05:51up just a little bit short of winning his third home run derby title. Ken Griffey, Jr., the only
05:56player since the derby's inception back in nineteen eighty five to win three home run derby
06:03championships. Pete Alonzo trying to do that tonight. Five of the eight contestants, as I
06:09shared, first time appearances. Oh, man, my computer just died right here in the spot. Nice.
06:17That's crazy. Hate to see that. So I don't even know the graph.
06:22Make it up. I don't know. People don't know. Start making it up. Let's just rip it. Yeah.
06:26Here's the here's one of the graphics. I can read it. There it is. Gunner Henderson's on there.
06:31Jose Ramirez is on there. Adonis Garcia is on there. And my point about Bobby Witt,
06:36by the way, Gunner Henderson and Bobby Witt, two of those five first timers, both Jose Ramirez
06:42and Adonis Garcia, have been in the home run derby before. Bobby Witt, as we'll share with
06:47you in just a moment, is the favorite to have the longest home run with a very, very short number
06:54that doesn't really seem to make a ton of sense. We'll give you some bets and hopefully some
07:00winning wagers on the other side for the twenty twenty one home run derby. My computer's back up.
07:05They know it's time to roll here on this Monday on the other line. So let's continue to set the
07:10stage for the twenty twenty four home run derby with the odds now associated. Pete Alonso is the
07:17favorite at a three to one price. He is 80 cents in front of Marcel Ozuna, plus three eighty on
07:25Ozuna. Gunner Henderson, plus four thirty. One of the few lefties that will be batting from that side
07:31of the dish tonight. Again, D.R.S. Pete Alonso looking for his third home run derby title.
07:37Only Ken Griffey Jr. has won three since the start of the home run derby way back in 1985.
07:46Correctly booked as the favorite. But let's take it even a step further. The odds to even reach a
07:51semifinal. Pete Alonso minus two sixty five to get out of the opening round. All eight hitters
08:00will bat in the opening round. The four with the most home runs then go to the semifinals
08:04where they will be slotted one versus four, two versus three to the championship match following.
08:11Yeah, and I guess in that first round, right, you're just going to lean on the guys that have
08:15been there, done that before and are comfortable moving on and have done this. And also sometimes
08:20we do it a little bit wrong in baseball and I understand why it's not happening. Now, me,
08:23as I just told you about, you know, the last couple of segments, Joel Embiid shouldn't be
08:27playing in the Olympics. I'm worried about him in the regular season for the Sixers.
08:30I take a look and I get angry that like Alex Bones is in this. He should not be in the home run derby.
08:35And it's like, oh, well, who else are going to stand for the Phillies? I don't know. Schwerber
08:38Harper, who we're playing right now with Donnie, they were injured. Oh, but they can play in the
08:42field and sprint to first and second base, but they just can't hit the home run derby.
08:45Tasker Hernandez is an 11 to one to win this thing here for the Dodgers. Well, who else did
08:49you want to send for the Dodgers? I don't know. Shohei Otani could be in this competition. So
08:53we really could have leveled up on multiple different angles. And the fact that Aaron
08:57Judge is not in this is a disgrace at this point. But we digress back to what we were talking about
09:01advancing to the second round. Sometimes you just lean on where you're going to go and have you
09:06been there and done that before and what it takes to get to round number two, because we have seen
09:09quite a bit guys that haven't been in before hit one or two. It's not because they're not great
09:13hitters or home run hitters. Once you get up on that big stage where you are the singular spotlight
09:18in front of that stadium, the crushed baseballs, it's a little bit different up there.
09:22Yes, you're right in the idea, DRS, that we're missing some of those big time sluggers, right?
09:27Aaron Judge leads all of the bigs at the all-star break with 34. Homer Shohei Otani,
09:32second most leading in the National League with 29. Neither in this field, Alec Boehm,
09:38the least amount of home runs of anybody in this crowd of eight. He only has 11, but we try to
09:45focus on the guys that we have. And Peter Alonso, the only guy on that list, by the way, that has
09:50been in this event more than once. So again, that's the structure of how this goes. Is it timed? I
09:58should have looked this up. Is it timed or is it 10 outs, right? Three minutes? Yeah. Only three
10:07minutes? As many as you can hit? Do you have to wait? Did they change the rule also? Did they
10:13have to wait till the ball hits the ground? Or is it just rapid fire now? You're supposed to wait
10:18until it hits its intended surface. But that, as we've seen the last few years, that rule is not
10:25upheld to the slightest. No. And there's really no penalty for it, so I don't know. It changes
10:32every year, though. They do make those minor changes every year, which always keeps it tough
10:35to keep track of, though. Right. Marcelo Zuna, 26 home runs, fourth most in Major League Baseball.
10:41Gunnar Henderson in his first appearance, 28 home runs, third most in MLB. Can we talk about
10:48the one price that really just stands out to me? And it's not somebody to advance to the
10:53semifinals or to win or some of the props associated. Why does Bobby Witt Jr. have a plus
10:59260 price to hit the longest home run in the 2024 Derby? Why is he $4 in front of everybody else?
11:08Why is that the case, Donnie? It's a good point you bring up, because usually you'd look at that
11:14list and go, I don't know, Ozuna is a big power guy, Adoles Garcia is a big power guy, and Pete
11:19Alonzo. But again, I think the graphic says this is Ozuna's first home run Derby, so you always
11:24want to usually put on a show. But it's Pete Alonzo, who if I just went like pound for pound,
11:28probably should be the guy that hits it the farthest. Is he such a veteran where he literally
11:33says, look, my goal is not to swing as hard as I can. That doesn't win these competitions.
11:38You see where I'm going with that, where maybe a younger guy is like, you know what, I'm going to
11:41put on a show. If I win it, if I win it, oh well. If not, I'm going to make sure I hit multiple
11:46baseballs 500 feet in this thing. That's what I'm worried about, because when I think longest,
11:50I just look at Pete Alonzo and go, he should just be the favorite on name alone. But it's funny that
11:55you talk about that. Bobby Witt is the favorite. That's the only, I'm just trying to rationalize
11:59why that might be. There's a lot of props available, the number of home runs to hit
12:04in the opening round. Will your first swing be a home run? And some for the derby overall. As we
12:10said, the longest long ball, 484 and a half from a foot perspective. Total home runs over under 269
12:18and a half. That's between all eight guys throughout all rounds, all three of the home
12:24run derby. A debutante winner, five of the eight in their first appearance. The home run prop king,
12:29Tom Vecchio, joins us next. The jack of all trades, but on this Monday, looking forward to
12:34the 2024 home run derby, the home run prop king is here. Tom Vecchio joins us on the early line
12:41on this Monday to get you set for everything you will see tonight at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
12:47And now at the all-star break in Major League Baseball, where his opinion of the league stands
12:53at this point, nearing a hundred games played for most teams around MLB. Vecchio, we appreciate
12:59the time as always. Thanks for starting off this new week with us. Thanks for having me. Home run
13:04derby tonight. There's a lot to get into and we also have some rule changes for this year compared
13:09to last. Lots of breakdown. I'm here for two segments. Let's roll. Vecchio came prepared. My
13:15mic keeps falling. We got to figure things out here on the desk. It just keeps moving on me.
13:20It's really crazy. Anyway, Vecchio, here we are at the all-star break around MLB. The Dodgers,
13:26as predicted before the year even got started as the World Series favorites remained, despite a
13:32lot of the team and its stars being on the IL and LA entering the all-star break, losing eight
13:38of its last 11. The Philadelphia Phillies, the best team in Major League Baseball,
13:42the second best price to win a World Series at plus 420. The Yankees and the O's separated by
13:48only a game in the American League East. Baltimore in front of New York, but behind in the World
13:53Series odds and the Braves round out the top five. Those five teams with a three-digit price
13:58at nine to one. Vecchio, how do you evaluate the numbers that back up the World Series odds
14:03here at the all-star break? I just can't get behind the Dodgers as of now. And obviously,
14:09they're a great team, but, you know, the injuries that they're dealing with, missing Yamamoto,
14:13missing Glasson, I think are the two key components. If Kershaw comes back, I expect
14:17them to be good, but not great. I just can't back them at that number. I have interest in
14:21the Phillies overall, but specifically, I have interest in the Phillies to beat the Dodgers in
14:25the NL. I think that's a viable bet at plus 500. My kind of dark horse, I think it's going to be
14:30the Guardians. And it comes down to if they can make a move to solidify their pitch. And we have
14:34to remember that they're one of the best teams in the AL and they lost Shane Bieber at the beginning
14:39of the year. So they can make a move at the deadline to acquire another front-end starter.
14:43As I talked about time and time again last year, I always said about the Phillies,
14:47head-to-head, give me Nola and Wheeler against basically any other combination,
14:50I will take that. And the Guardians are missing that, you know, front-line starter,
14:54so they can get that. I'll take the Guardians as a deeper shot and then Phillies direct over
14:58the Dodgers at plus 500. Yeah, Tom, that's a question I keep asking myself is, I think other
15:03teams are going to improve themselves and look right at the central and say, boy, it would be
15:07nice if you got another bat, another bullpen arm, another front-line starting pitcher for the
15:10Guardians, what those differences would be in the odds for me once we get to the month of August.
15:15But we'll find out in about two weeks here at the trade deadline. If we do circle in and focus just
15:21on the American League itself, it's the two teams in the AL East that are getting a lot of the
15:24headlines here and rightfully so. The New York Yankees at a plus 240 price to win the pennant,
15:28followed by the Baltimore Orioles at a 310 price and then basically double that is the
15:32Minnesota Twins. If we look at the Yankees and the Orioles as the one, two teams here in the AL,
15:38who do you give the nod to? Because right now, the FanDuel Sportsbook giving the nod to the New
15:41York Yankees. Yeah, it's gonna be back and forth, not only for the AL, but also for the division
15:46throughout the rest of the season. A couple wins here, a couple wins lost, you know, losses for
15:50both the teams going back and forth. You know, as of now, it's, you know, as a Yankees fan, it's
15:54tough to evaluate this market, but I think the Orioles have what it takes and I don't expect
15:58the Yankees pitching to be as good as it has been. I think, you know, Rodon was running hot and
16:03obviously crashed back down to earth. I think they have to make a move at pitching. If the Yankees
16:06do not make a move when it comes to pitching, I think the Orioles will take it. If Stanton and
16:10Rizzo and they get Jason Dominguez back and he gets called up, I think the hitting will be fine
16:15for the Yankees. The pitching is the concern. So I think that will give that edge a little bit to
16:18the Orioles. So I have to side with them as of now. Vecchio, you mentioned the National League
16:23that you think one of the best bets is the Phillies over the Dodgers. The exact result
16:27of what could happen in the NLCS as we saw last week, Philadelphia sweeping LA in the city of
16:34brotherly love. If you look at the National League pennant odds, it is the story of one and
16:39two. The Dodgers just 20 cents in front of the fields at the all-star break and the Braves not
16:44all that far behind at plus 460 before a large drop off to everybody else in the National League.
16:50If it's not LA, if it's not Philadelphia, who would that third team be in your mind?
16:56It has to be the Braves just from a safety standpoint and with how good Chris Sale has
17:00been. And admittedly, I was pretty low on him coming to the year injury, you know,
17:04injury history that he's had. But him and Max Frieda are a pretty good one-two combo.
17:09And if they can get the bats sorted out, obviously losing Acuna, we've known that for
17:12months at this point is a big loss. But if they can get the bats sorted out,
17:16they have the experience, they have enough pitching to go head to head with another team.
17:19So that's really the only other spot to go. Milwaukee, I have just no trust in.
17:24I can't trust the Padres, but they are inconsistent with the bats. And while
17:28Cease has been good, he's not a pitcher you can just trust out there in late September or early
17:32October compared to someone like Sale and Frieda who have proven themselves in the postseason before.
17:38Let me give you a follow-up question here on that National League because the Dodgers at that plus
17:41180 price. So I do believe the Phillies are the best overall team from starting pitching the
17:45bullpen to one through nine. But a lot of us would take a look at the Dodgers as if they
17:49are going to make that move at the trade deadline to improve the roster. Now, sometimes we say like
17:54it's not so much the trades that you make, it's who you get back off the IL that you get. There's
17:58a lot of players on the IL with the Dodgers. But in your mind, Tom, are we expecting a big move by
18:03the Dodgers at the deadline? I can't see it unless there's some setback with Glassnow, Yamamoto,
18:11probably not Mookie, I think he'll be fine. But if there's a true setback with Kershaw,
18:15who's already been slowed down in his recovery, if Glassnow, which I think was a precautionary
18:20putting him on the IL so he gets the extra rest of the all-star break. But if there's a setback
18:24with him or Yamamoto, they have to make that splash play because their pitching staff right
18:28now, their starting rotation is not good as we've seen over this last stretch of games.
18:32So if there's a setback, yes, they make a big move. If not, I think they'll just wait to weather
18:36the storm, get everyone healthy when they are. All right, home run prop King. Let's dive in
18:41right before we get to the home run Derby. Let's look at the home run race for the home run King
18:46this year in Major League Baseball. Aaron Judge not on pace to break his own record of 62 home
18:51runs, the most hit in American League history that he set two years ago, but still a five long ball
18:57advantage entering the all-star break to be the home run leader this year in Major League Baseball,
19:02a minus 350 price. Is there any price out there, any player out there that can unseat Judge from
19:10hitting the most home runs in MLB this season? The player that can do it would be Ohtani. But
19:15as I said a couple of weeks ago, it's waiting for that number potentially to fall to around
19:1810 to 1, 7 to 1. I don't think it's long enough for Ohtani. Of course, the skill is certainly
19:23there for him. But at these odds, you know, Gunnar Henderson, I think is falling a little
19:27bit far behind. Ozuna got off to a super hard start. He slowed down a little bit. I think the
19:30odds are really tight right now. So yet Ohtani, maybe 9 to 1 would be the shortest I'd go, but
19:36probably nowhere else besides that. If we're looking at those top guys there, right, Judge
19:41Ohtani, Henderson, Ozuna, Alvarez, and Ramirez, let me just start with Aaron Judge. Is it just a
19:45simple fact of the matter for us, Tom? He just has to stay healthy? Or is there a legitimate
19:49threat that you say one of these guys can just get hot and cross over and pass Aaron Judge?
19:55It's probably the combination of both where Judge has the lead and if he stays healthy and just hits
20:00him at a regular rate, not the, what was it, 9.5 at-bats, I think he was hitting them home runs
20:05per at-bats two years ago. If he just hits them at a consistent rate, he just has the lead and
20:09he'll just kind of maintain it to end the season. But if he slows down and Ohtani gets hot,
20:15that's probably the only player I would trust to probably pass him.
20:19All right, home run derby time tonight in Arlington. Bekio will be here in our next segment
20:23as well for all of the prop breakdowns that you need. But Bekio, let's talk format first and
20:29foremost. Kind of stumped Donnie and I, but we now have those legitimate details. First two rounds
20:34are three minutes. The championship round is still only two minutes, but here's the caveat
20:40this year. In the first two rounds, if the pitcher throws 40 pitches, that's it. So it's either three
20:46minutes or 40 pitches. In the title round, it's two minutes or the first to 27 pitches, and then
20:53it's done. How does this slight change in format dictate how you bet the home run derby?
20:59Well, we also have to account for the fact that there's no bracket. In the first round,
21:03it is simply all eight hitters go, and then we go from there. So I think we have to use both of
21:07these pieces, the time, the number of pitch limits, and the non head-to-head in the first round to use
21:14that as a platform or a base to see what we're looking for moving forward. So we'll get to that
21:19in the next segment. I think that's a key part of what the players need to do and what they are
21:24essentially allowed to do in the timeframe or pitch limit given. The format, the field, and
21:30the venue. Tonight in Arlington at Globe Live Field, we will break it down with the Home Run
21:35Prop King on a day that lives for his name. It's the 2024 Home Run Derby. Everything you need to
21:43know. Some best bets, some winning wagers, and a look at those props on the other side of the
21:48break here on The Early Line. Everything you need to know ahead of the 2024 Home Run Derby on this
21:55Monday night in Arlington at Globe Live Field. We do that with the Home Run Prop King. Tom Vecchio
22:01back for a second consecutive segment live on this Monday on The Early Line. Right before the break,
22:07Tom, we talked about the small changes in format that could have a large impact on the outcome.
22:13The round time is still the same. Three minutes in the first two, two minutes in the championship
22:20round. But if you hit 40 pitches in those first two rounds or 27 pitches in the championship round,
22:27you're done. Even if there was time still left on the clock. The past few years, it has been a
22:33head-to-head matchup each and every round. Even in the opening, a bracket of one through eight. No
22:39longer the case in that opening round. So, Tom, how do all these changes impact your handicaps?
22:46Well, that's good. Like I said in the previous segment, that's the base of what we're looking at.
22:49I know right before I hopped on, Donna, you were talking about Pete Alonso. Maybe he doesn't need
22:54to push himself too much. While I agree with that overall, I think we have to factor in the fact
22:59that if it was a head-to-head, I would agree with that a little bit more. If he was going up against
23:03someone that only had 17 home runs, he gets to 18 or 19, then he can kind of cruise for the rest of
23:08that first round. But because it's not head-to-head, I'm willing to go a little bit higher on some of
23:12those players in the first round because they don't know what that line is going to be. It's
23:15just the top four. So if they go first, they don't know what line they have to cross. Now,
23:20if they go second, third, fourth, and they have the numbers, then they can cross it. So I like
23:24Alonso over 25.5 in the first round. I think the consistency that he's brought in the home runs
23:29will be the spot that I'll be going to first. And yes, he's the favorite for a reason. So I
23:32want to trust him at least to start over 25.5. And then I think the timing and plus we get the
23:38added bonus of 30 seconds if they hit a home run over 425 feet, I think that's a number he can get
23:42to many, many times giving him those extra outs to give him those extra chances.
23:46It's a good point you bring up. And so many times here, Tom, we analyze like which field
23:51you're going to. Is it a short porch and right field? Is it harder for the right-handed hitters
23:56to the left-handed hitters? You look at the dimensions, left field, right field, similar.
24:00Same thing with the power alleys and of course, center field. Did you break down any equations
24:05here based on this field where it might give somebody advantage or if it's just Adoles Garcia,
24:09this is his home ballpark and he's used to that batting eye in center field?
24:13You know, Garcia is certainly in the mix today. I think he's one of the players that could have
24:17one of the longest home runs or one of the hardest hit balls. The question, which I've
24:20been searching for, which I cannot find yet is will the roof be open tonight? Because that is
24:25a big, big change with the heat in Texas. That is obviously fantastic for hitters,
24:30whether they want to do that in terms of the fans being comfortable. That's another thing.
24:33So I'm desperately searching on whether or not global field will have the roof open tonight.
24:37Like you said, it's about equal 329, 326 down left to right. I think all things are equal.
24:42The park plays slightly over in terms of home runs compared to league, league averages at 1.06,
24:47which is essentially 6% above league average. So it's, it's basically neutral, all things
24:52considered. I think Garcia is a good pick, but I think we're looking at a very, very neutral
24:56field for all hitters tonight. So when you look at the home run derby field, eight contestants,
25:02three of those contestants, including Adoles Garcia have been here at least once before
25:08Jose Ramirez, his second appearance as well. Garcia has two and Pete Alonzo making his fifth
25:14appearance at a home run derby, looking for his third home run derby crown to join Ken Griffey
25:21jr. As the only player since the home run derby began back in 1985 to win three home run derby
25:29titles. So Becky, let's paint the path because there are also semi-final odds. That's that
25:33second round. There are five guys currently on the fan dual sports book that have a minus
25:39money price to get to the second round. Of course, only four will do just that. What is
25:45Pete's path tonight to be in contention for that third home run derby championship?
25:50So that would be starting off wrong. Like I said, over 25 and a half, the first round,
25:54I think that's the best spot to start. But like you said, there's five players with minus odds
25:59and one of them's not going to make it. So if you can think of the player or you have a player
26:03in mind, you should probably see the under on their first round. And for me, that might be
26:07Marcelo Zuna, you know, at Donnie, as you said, in the last segment, I think that, or the segment
26:11before that Henderson potentially, and Whit, two younger players are going to come out swinging as
26:15hard as they can to hit those long home runs. I think they're going to push a little bit more.
26:18So I do like those players to advance. Maybe Marcelo Zuna is the player that's not to advance,
26:22but again, I want to start with Alonzo as my favorite moving into the semifinals and then
26:26eventually moving into the final. And I have him facing off against Bobby Whit.
26:31P. Alonzo is the favorite in this at a plus 300 price here at the FanBlue Sportsbook followed
26:35by Zuna and Henderson. Do we have any favorites that we're looking here? Maybe some underdog
26:40prices all the way down that make a little bit more sense there.
26:43So Whit would be my second pick at plus 470. He actually has the longest home run out of anyone
26:48in the field. The seasoning as well as the highest exit velocity. He's also good at hitting pitches
26:53all over the plate to all parts of the field, which again can come into
26:56a little bit of a factor when there's only 40 pitches. We have to worry about that,
27:00that he's not going to have all these pitches you can just pass on. He has to take the swings
27:03when he can get them. And again, when it's an even field at 326 and 329, I think Whit as a player
27:08that has the power to push it to all parts, he can pull it, he can hit it across the field. So
27:12that's what we're going to be looking to as well. So Alonzo versus Whit at plus 1200. I don't know
27:16who's going to win, but I want to take that as the finalist outcome. Alonzo over 25 and a half.
27:21And I also like two over 269 and a half total home runs. Over the past few years, we've seen
27:26341 and 291 home runs total. Now again, we are dealing with a different format, but again,
27:31I think with some of the younger players out there, they're going to push a little bit at
27:34the end to pile up those home runs. Seems like a great handicap, at least following the trend.
27:40Tom, some other props available here with the prop perspective on this Monday longest home run
27:45for the home run derby for 84 and a half. You mentioned Bobby Whit Jr. has the shortest price
27:52to hit the longest home run of this event at plus 260 total home runs. You like a debutant winner,
27:59five of the eight contestants in their first ever home run derby appearance that's juiced at minus
28:06168. How do you break down the props for tonight's home run derby?
28:11Well, I would go with longest home run. I would go over that. And if you could,
28:14I think you can pick who has the longest home run. I would go with Adolis Garcia. We'll play
28:18with that hometown narrative. He wants to come out there swinging big, put on a performance for
28:22the crowd. So that's where I would go with that. First debutant winner, probably no. I don't think
28:26the juice is worth it at that point. So I'd probably avoid that. But picking some of the
28:31individual ones, like again, if you let Gunnar Henderson to make the final, you should be
28:35interested in Gunnar Henderson over his first round total to make those semifinals, all those
28:39things. So whatever player you have in mind tonight, maybe it's Adolis Garcia. He's going
28:43to roll with that hometown. You just got to line up the props and move forward with that narrative.
28:47I think it's going to be a lot, a lot, a lot of Alonzo and Wick tonight. So that's where I'm going
28:51for most of my props. And that really should be your betting handicap for the home run derby. You
28:56can paint that path even in a derby. Tom Vecchio, the home run prop king doing that for us here on
29:03this Monday on the early line. Tom, we appreciate the time. We're coming on the other side of the
29:07break here on TEL. The home run derby on this Monday, one of the few sporting events that you
29:13can bet on, on the FanDuel Sportsbook, at least here. I guess I should say stateside, but Team
29:19USA is over in Abu Dhabi in their exhibition match against Team Australia. We don't have any WNBA
29:26action on this Monday. We'll have some games on Tuesday, some final games on Wednesday before the
29:32all-star break and the Olympic break in the WNBA. So let's continue to roll through the home run
29:39derby because I want to hit on a point that Tom Vecchio made that I think is very sound. Yes,
29:43it's the home run derby. It's hard to quantify exactly what we are going to see tonight. You can
29:49use recent years for those trends. You can look at player performance in home run derbies, but
29:54five of the eight in their first ever appearance in a derby. You can look at their overall season
30:00stats, but doesn't provide much in this unique scenario that is a home run derby. But whoever you
30:06believe in, if it's Bobby Witt Jr., if it's Gunnar Henderson, if it's the hometown guy in Adoles
30:11Garcia, maybe it's Marcel Ozuna, maybe it's Pete Alonso looking for that third home run derby
30:18crown. Maybe if it's even Alec Bohm, although he only has 11 long balls this year, there are ways
30:23to bet this all throughout that make a ton of sense. If you think Alec Bohm is going to contend
30:28for a title, his first round home run prop of 18 and a half has to go over unless everybody just
30:34sucks it up tonight in Arlington. Yeah, you're right about that. So sometimes just take a look
30:39at the price points here for me and most other people. I just go Pete Alonso. Well, yeah, granted,
30:43he has a legitimate chance to win it and advance, but you're not getting a great price point on him
30:47per se as opposed to some of those underdogs. I don't expect a lot from Alec Bohm, which is why
30:51I believe his price point now is a plus two as a 20 to one as opposed to a 16 to one now. But if
30:57you are looking at those opportunities where those guys advance, there's plus money. There are
31:01some angles to make in here in which when we give a best bet out in just a few moments, I got one of
31:05those angles that I'm going to play from a good hitter that I just want to advance for some plus
31:09money. Yeah, absolutely. So five of the eight in their first ever appearance, you saw the numbers,
31:15the debut top winner minus 168. The reason it's so heavily juiced is because more than half the
31:20field, of course, is in their first ever home run derby, their debut. But there's not exactly
31:26the bracket as it lined up the past few seasons where starting off based on your home run total
31:32for a season, it was one versus eight, two versus seven, three versus six, four versus five. That
31:38now begins in the second round, the semifinal round. So in that opening round of three minutes
31:43or 40 pitches, you need to have top four in terms of the home run amount to qualify for that second
31:50round. Then it's the bracket. One versus four, two versus three, most home runs versus fourth,
31:57most home runs in the opening round, two versus three there. And as Tom Vecchio shared with us,
32:03the format is different. Three minutes in each of the first two rounds or reaching 40 pitches,
32:10two minutes in the championship round or reaching 27 pitches. I guess that's their way, Donnie,
32:16to kind of counteract the idea. It was hard to judge when a ball hit the ground, especially
32:21if it landed in the stand. So instead of just rapid fire in three minutes, there is now kind
32:26of a pitch limit available. Yeah, it does make some sense that way. Also, they're always tinkering
32:31it here back in the day. It's like, hey, you get 10 pitches or 10 outs. You're not worried about
32:34that. But then, yeah, they batter in the box. That's taken six and seven pitches before he
32:39swings at one. We don't want to see that. You want to see constant action here. It'll be interesting
32:43why they always wanted to see if it landed. Why not just have rapid fire at the plate? Because
32:47that fires the batter out and that's going to be a disadvantage later. So we'll see. We'll see if
32:51it works out tonight. I don't mind the tinkering of rules. They seem to change it every year in
32:55some minor way. So let's give out a home run derby best bet before we say farewell and goodbye
33:01on this Monday. It is time for bye bye bye. DRS, you said you were keying in on a batter that you
33:12like tonight and trying to find a prop associated. What is the best bet for the home run derby
33:16tonight in Arlington? Like I said, I think Pete Alonzo wins it at a plus 300 price. But if I'm
33:21trying to take a look at some of those odds where I don't have to win it but still take down a good
33:25prize like hey, Pete Alonzo to advance is a minus 265. I'm not doing that. Jose Ramirez is a plus
33:30190 just to make it into the semifinals. That means get by technically just the first round at
33:34this point. And I do believe he should be able to do that. It's a guy that you're not looking for
33:38like, oh, I got to bet him to hit a 600 foot home run. That guy's got a swing that when he gets hot
33:42can hit just as many home runs as anybody else. And again, I don't need him to win at a plus 190
33:47price just to get to the semis. Jose Ramirez now the second longest price to get into the semis
33:54and moving odds there. Five guys in minus money, of course, not all five guys can reach that second
33:59round only for I love a couple of prop bets for swing for any of the contestants to be a home run
34:05like Bobby Witt, Jr. Everybody has the juice to the know that their first swing is not going to
34:11be a long ball might be worth a sprinkle on the plus money. I go Bobby Witt, Jr. Over 22 and a
34:16half homers in the opening round for a little fun at the home run derby. He's Donnie. I'm Ben. We'll
34:22talk to you tomorrow, Tuesday morning, 8 a.m. Eastern time here on the other side.