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00:00It's the opening day of October here in hour number two of this Tuesday live on
00:06the early line and a beautiful thing has happened, Joe, where the first day of this
00:11new month in October is the actual first day of what we call October baseball.
00:17That's the Major League Baseball postseason that starts on this Tuesday.
00:22All four wild card rounds are about to begin.
00:26All four sets in this wild card round.
00:29A quadruple header of game ones on the opening day of October here on this Tuesday.
00:36But we got pretty close to the end of September being the end of the regular season.
00:41A double header yesterday in Atlanta to officially end out the regular year in 162
00:48around MLB between the Braves and the Mets.
00:52We needed both games yesterday.
00:54Of course, here was what was at stake entering the double header in Atlanta.
01:00If the Mets swept, it would have been New York and Arizona into the postseason.
01:05If the Braves swept, it would have been Atlanta and Arizona into the postseason.
01:11If the two teams split the double header, both the Mets and the Braves would go.
01:17And that's what happened.
01:18But just saying that does not necessarily tell the whole tale.
01:23What a game it was.
01:24Game 161 between the Mets and the Braves.
01:28New York victorious 8-7 as the Moneyline underdog.
01:33Tyler McGill, not bad, did give up three runs.
01:38Ramon Laureano, a two-run shot that put Atlanta up three zip.
01:42It's where the score stood entering the eighth inning.
01:45In Spencer Schwellenbach, the rookie out of Nebraska was absolutely shoving on the bump,
01:51but did give up an opening double to start off the eighth.
01:55Schwellenbach, seven innings of work, only an earned run allowed, and just four hits.
02:01From when Schwellenbach got ousted, the Mets took advantage.
02:05They scored six runs in the top of the eighth.
02:07All right, now they're leading 6-3.
02:09Comfortable.
02:10Should be an easy victory.
02:12Enter Edwin Diaz, who has not been easy this year.
02:17Bases got juiced.
02:18It was a 6-4 game.
02:20Ozzie Albies at the plate.
02:21A bases-clearing three-RBI double for Atlanta to put the Braves back on top,
02:277-6 in the bottom of the eighth.
02:31So, Atlanta lead 7-6, entering the final frame.
02:35And Francisco Lindor, if Shohei Otani did not exist,
02:39if Otani still played in the American League,
02:42that guy on your screen would be the National League MVP this year.
02:47Lindor enters with a two-run home run to put the Mets in front again, 8-7.
02:54And Diaz finally pitches well in the home half of the ninth, shutting the door.
02:59The New York Mets take game one.
03:01A long recap to quench their playoff berth.
03:04The Mets win game one, 8-7.
03:07So, in game number two, Chris Sale was expected to start back spasms.
03:12Keep him on the shelf.
03:14Grant Holmes gets the start for Atlanta.
03:17And the Braves do win.
03:19It gets a Mets lineup that was not necessarily the same lineup for game 161.
03:24Joey Lucchese made his second start of the year.
03:28And the Braves do hold on for a 3-0 shutout in game two.
03:32The two teams split the doubleheader.
03:34Both teams quench a playoff berth in the National League.
03:39All right.
03:40I am done.
03:41The regular season is done.
03:43The National League playoff picture is now set.
03:46It was the best two innings of baseball that you will have seen all year.
03:53And those that tuned in might have been going, oh, great, 3-0.
03:57What a boring, you know, Schwellenbeck was fantastic.
04:01But that eighth and ninth inning, if we get any of that drama,
04:04which we know we're going to because it certainly felt like a playoff game,
04:08we get any of that heading in over the next month, Ben, it's going to be maybe the best.
04:13And we got extra teams.
04:14We got short series.
04:16This is going to be must-watch television, the Major League Baseball playoff starting today.
04:22Yes, it is certainly going to be.
04:24And because of the results of yesterday, not only are the D-backs now
04:30planting their winner vacations, but because of Atlanta winning the second game of the doubleheader,
04:36not only do the Braves earn that National League playoff spot,
04:40their seventh consecutive year into the postseason,
04:43Atlanta wins the regular season series against the New York Mets in Game 13, 7-6.
04:50So they hold the tiebreaker advantage, which means the Braves are the five seed.
04:55They're in the wildcard round, take it on San Diego.
04:58They head out to Southern California late night against the Padres, the Mets,
05:03the sixth and final seed.
05:05They head to the state of Wisconsin to take on the Brew Crew,
05:08Milwaukee, of course, the champions of the National League Central.
05:13We will get to every series in the wildcard round,
05:16all four that start today with their opening game on the opening day of October.
05:21Not only a Game 1 preview, but of course, what these sets have at stake,
05:26the odds associated to get to the division round in MLB.
05:32But Joe, when you look at the National League playoff picture,
05:35it was not confirmed yesterday.
05:37It is now made official.
05:39The Dodgers, the top team, the Phillies in the two spot,
05:42both LA and Philadelphia earned the opening round by.
05:46Milwaukee was the first team because of such a substantial cushion
05:49in the National League Central to clinch a divisional crown this year.
05:54They host the Mets.
05:55And let's start there, Joe.
05:57Same price for both Milwaukee and New York at 11-1 to win the National League pennant.
06:03Is it disrespectful of Milwaukee?
06:06Is it too respectful of New York?
06:08What do you make of two teams, one a division winner that cruised to a divisional crown
06:13and has home field advantage in this best of three series,
06:17having the same exact pennant price as the wildcard team in New York?
06:21Yeah, well, it's it's kind of crazy here because this Brewers-Mets
06:25series I think is huge advantage to the Brewers.
06:30And they've already proven that, Ben.
06:32What, winning five of six already this year against them?
06:36They also, they run the bases better.
06:39They're a better defensive team.
06:42I mean, they defense, base running, all the little things, right?
06:46The number one team in the playoffs right now are the Milwaukee Brewers.
06:51Nobody does small ball better than Milwaukee.
06:54And in a short series, Ben, that's the difference between winning the series and advancing
07:00and going home and being one and done.
07:02I, you know, it's unfortunate it ended up the way it did for the Mets
07:06because I would have rather have seen the Mets against anybody other than
07:10this Milwaukee Brewers team, which has proven to be a giant pain in the Mets behind.
07:16And that was not going to be the case entering this year.
07:19They played in the very first series against each other starting this season,
07:23a year where the odds for Milwaukee were not overly optimistic.
07:27The Brew crew swept New York to start off this season, a slow opening half start,
07:33a slow first two months for New York is the reason they're a wildcard team
07:37and frankly did not win the National League East.
07:40I'll detail that in just a second.
07:43But the Brewers under Pat Murphy, after Craig Council shocked everybody,
07:48leaving Milwaukee to go to Chicago to be the manager of the Cubs,
07:52doing the in-division move.
07:54Oh man, Milwaukee was going to struggle.
07:57They had lost some of their best arms over the past couple years.
08:00It was a team that had struggled at the plate offensively,
08:03despite winning records the last few seasons.
08:07Pat Murphy came in more than likely going to win NL manager of the year
08:11and they cruised to the National League Central.
08:13And even if you want to compare these teams straight up, face value,
08:17their in-season series against one another that the Brew crew dominated,
08:22you also want to give Milwaukee the benefit of the doubt being at home
08:26for a best of three series.
08:28That's all the wildcard round is in Major League Baseball.
08:32Now you can make the argument that Milwaukee,
08:34because they had clinched the divisional crown early in the NL Central,
08:38wasn't playing significant baseball in the final week and a half,
08:41where the New York Mets were already in a playoff atmosphere.
08:44Okay, we'll tell that to Milwaukee,
08:46who beat New York in two of three games in the second to last set,
08:50ahead of the doubleheader in Atlanta, when the Mets needed everything.
08:53Now, I will say this and make this final point.
08:57The New York Mets were 24-33 at the end of May, nine games below .500.
09:02We know what June meant in the grimace era for New York.
09:06Since June 1st, Joe, nobody in baseball better than the Amazons.
09:11The Mets were 65-40, the best part to the bigs in that span.
09:16Now the Americans, live right here on the early line.
09:20It is a Tuesday, the opening day of October.
09:24We will preview each and every wildcard series
09:28to start off the postseason in MLB after this.
09:32But just a reminder of where things stand around the American League playoff picture.
09:37This was done on Sunday, when the regular season was supposed to end.
09:42The division winners, the New York Yankees, in the top spot.
09:45The Guardians and the Astros did not each play one of their final games of the season,
09:51so they stopped at 161.
09:53But Cleveland earns the opening round by in front of Houston.
09:57Cleveland could not be caught by the Astros.
10:00The game did not need to be played.
10:01Cleveland was not going to catch New York either.
10:04So Cleveland and New York, the opening round buys the Yanks
10:07the best price to win the American League pennant.
10:10The Orioles, by far the top wildcard team in the American League.
10:15They swept the Twins to end out this season.
10:18And because of the Twins' slide over the final month or so,
10:22the Royals and the Tigers take advantage.
10:25KC Good down the stretch after snapping a seven-game skid last week
10:30that plagued their second-to-last week of the season.
10:34Nobody better than the Tigers since August 22nd.
10:37Detroit on fire into the postseason for the first time in a while.
10:42Joe, what do you make of the American League playoff picture as a whole?
10:46Yeah, it's good.
10:48I still think the Yankees are going to be your American League winners.
10:53I do think it's going to be fascinating along the way between these wildcard teams,
11:00especially the old kids on the block versus the new kids here with the Tigers and the Astros.
11:05I don't know.
11:06The Orioles limping into the playoffs worries me a lot.
11:10I would love to figure out a way to back them here.
11:12I just don't see it done.
11:14But ultimately, I think you're in one and two seed,
11:16or you're one and two seed in the American League for a reason.
11:19And I think it's ultimately going to come down to them.
11:22Yeah, when you look at where things stand for both the Yankees and the Guardians,
11:26Ken Cleveland, although a lot of people have not been overly optimistic about the
11:30American League Central making a charge to a pennant race this year,
11:36they've got three of the six teams into the postseason.
11:39We look at the Yankees.
11:41This is their time.
11:42They have not won the pennant.
11:43They have not played in a World Series since their last World Series championship way back now
11:49in 2009, a decade and a half ago.
11:53Then there's the Astros, Joe.
11:54Not nearly as good win-loss record as the two teams in front of them
11:58that earned the opening round by.
12:00But what Houston has well in front of New York, well in front of Cleveland,
12:05well in front of pretty much everybody in either of the two leagues is that playoff pedigree.
12:10The Astros, whether it was in their trashcan banging era,
12:14or now since they have been a clean franchise,
12:16the Astros have played in seven consecutive American League championship series.
12:22Nobody else can say that.
12:24Is the postseason pedigree enough for you to maybe wager on that plus 370 price for Houston?
12:33I think it's going to play a big role in this game because it's such a short series.
12:40If it was a longer series, you got to start looking at, you know,
12:45full compliment of starting pitching and those kinds of things there.
12:49We know the Tigers, who were what, since August 1st,
12:5234 and 19, one of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball, as well as the American League.
12:58But the Astros weren't terrible either since that time frame, 32 and 21.
13:02But I think it's the Astros knew, and it feels like they knew, Ben, that, hey,
13:08yeah, we weren't great early, but we just got to get there.
13:11We got to get in.
13:13We got to make sure we're healthy.
13:14And then I still think they have another gear, which is kind of scary.
13:19And I think the Tigers, once they hit adversity, which they didn't hit a lot of
13:23since August 1st, I think that's when experience is going to come into it,
13:29when it's the eighth or ninth inning with the game on the line.
13:32What does Detroit have?
13:33I think it's the edge totally to the Houston Astros.
13:36Yeah.
13:37And how could it not be, frankly, right?
13:39When you look at what Detroit did from August 22nd, they were four games below 500.
13:46They rallied to get back in.
13:48Nobody better in baseball from that time frame than the Tigers.
13:52You mentioned since August 1st, the Tigers, at that record, the best in baseball in,
13:57or at least in the American League in that span.
14:00And Joe, we gave a lot of credit to the Mets, and rightfully so, 65 and 40 since June 1st,
14:05the best record in the bigs after the first two months of this Major League Baseball season.
14:11Pretty similar script, though, for the Astros.
14:13Donnie and I had a joke here over the opening two months of this season.
14:17Where was the fork for the Astros?
14:19Could we put it in them?
14:20Did we have to hide it?
14:22Did we have to smash it?
14:23By the time they got to the middle of May, Houston started playing better baseball.
14:27But at the end of May, Joe, at the end, they were still eight games below 500, 25 and 33.
14:34The Mets were 24 and 33.
14:36Houston only ended up playing 161 games this year.
14:40So their record from June 1st on, 63 and 40, second best in the bigs beside the New York Mets.
14:48So again, you give the postseason pedigree to the Astros.
14:52You look at the overall sample size of this season, Houston's one of the best.
14:56And Joe, for a lot of this year, we saw the Astros trail in the odds category.
15:01For a lot of this year, it was the Yankees and the O's,
15:05the two best prices in the American League.
15:07Baltimore has been an even 500 team.
15:1033 and 33 since the All-Star break.
15:13I wonder about the Orioles.
15:15Last year, the number one overall seed in the American League.
15:19They were bounced in their opening division series by the Rangers in a sweep.
15:24Did that young club learn from the experience?
15:28And can they now ride that momentum as a wildcard team this time around?
15:34Yeah, I just don't.
15:35I think the reason that they were a 500 team after the All-Star break at best
15:40is because I think the injuries to the pitching have finally caught up.
15:46Plus, I think they became very reliant on the long ball, Ben, and not a whole lot else.
15:51I think there's too many warts on this Orioles team
15:55to consider them to be a contender coming out of the American League, at least at this point.
15:59They've also had so many injuries to the pitching staff for Baltimore this year,
16:05despite how good, how prolific, how young their offensive lineup is.
16:09The Tigers, by the way, 24-11 since August 22nd.
16:14To earn this playoff spot, the best record in baseball.
16:18Best record in baseball since September, or in the month of September as well.
16:23The O's did rally, right?
16:24They swept the Twins to end out the regular season,
16:28even though they had already clinched that playoff berth.
16:30Baltimore ended up with a winning record in September,
16:34but it wasn't pictured perfect.
16:36Now a preview of the wildcard sets next.
16:39All right, now we get you ready for this quadruple header on the opening day of October.
16:44It's the opening day of the Major League Baseball postseason.
16:48All four wildcard series that we have start today.
16:52Four games with playoff baseball starting at 2.30 p.m. Eastern time.
16:57This afternoon.
16:58So naturally, we go to the final game of the day in the final series of four
17:03that will begin in this wildcard round.
17:06Because the Braves won the final game of the season yesterday
17:10in the second leg of the double header against the Mets,
17:13not only did Atlanta earn their playoff berth,
17:15but again, because of the regular season tiebreaker against the Mets,
17:20they won seven, New York won six.
17:22The Braves are the five seed.
17:24So they make the long trip out to San Diego.
17:26It's the final game of four today.
17:29The Padres, a pretty hefty favorite.
17:31And Joe, when we first got word yesterday,
17:33before we compare this match,
17:35when we first got word yesterday,
17:37that Chris Dale was going to start game two of the double header
17:41to confirm Atlanta should have no issue earning that playoff bid.
17:45The line was nearly five dollars in favor of the Braves on the money line.
17:50Then he was scratched due to back spasms.
17:52All right, I'll tell you my first natural inclination.
17:55They're just saving him for the opener of the postseason
17:58and try to take an early lead over San Diego.
18:02But then Brian Snitker, Atlanta's manager after saying,
18:05no, these are actual back spasms.
18:07They are concerned they will not have the guy
18:09who was going to win the NL Cy Young Award
18:12for the entirety of this opening wildcard round against San Diego
18:15and what his playoff future could be,
18:18even if the Braves earn a division series berth,
18:20very much up in the air.
18:23It really is.
18:24And then you take into the fact, Ben,
18:26that he's owed $22 million next year.
18:28He's got a club option for $18 million the following year.
18:32Don't forget, next year, they got Spencer Strider back,
18:34Ronald Acuna Jr. back.
18:37I don't think they were just trying to pull a fast one and say,
18:40hey, can we get to the playoffs without using sale?
18:45I think they have a serious concern on his health.
18:48And with the back and the back being an issue,
18:52we know that ain't going to get any better.
18:53If he goes out there and takes three steps back
18:56because he tries to push himself,
18:58they got a decision to make on him
19:00because this guy's going to be a Cy Young winner this year.
19:04And you're going to owe this guy $22, $25,
19:08almost $40 million over the next two years.
19:10Isn't it more important to keep him healthy
19:13than anything else here over the next couple of years?
19:15So I'm wondering if we see him at all in this series.
19:19And injuries have been a story for Atlanta.
19:22The fact they even earned the seventh consecutive playoff bid
19:26for the Braves does say something.
19:28The Padres, as you saw, a hefty favorite now
19:31because they are a hefty favorite in game one.
19:34I still think, albeit on the road and on short notice,
19:37Chris Sale probably would have had the Braves
19:40as the short money line favorite in San Diego.
19:43We don't know the starting pitcher officially yet for the Braves.
19:46There is some speculation, but nothing confirmed.
19:50We do know the starter for the Padres.
19:52It's Michael King.
19:53And the Padres are a minus 166 home money line favorite today.
19:58Joe, Michael King has been darn good.
20:00We will preview these games a little bit later on.
20:03But the reason San Diego is now a minus 174 series favorite
20:07to win this best of three set
20:09and advance to the division series
20:11is because they can trust in King.
20:13He's 13-9 this year with a 2-9-5 ERA.
20:17That ERA is the ninth best all around Major League Baseball.
20:21You know what's funny?
20:22San Diego has dropped four of King's last six starts as a team.
20:27But in those four L's for the Padres,
20:29King has not allowed more than two earned runs.
20:32It just goes to show you how good he has been,
20:35even if the Padres have faltered a little bit
20:37in a couple of his last starts.
20:39Yeah, and he was much better in the second half of the season
20:44than he was in the first half.
20:45So he actually got stronger as the season went on,
20:48which is interesting because he was a reliever.
20:51This is his first full season as a starting pitcher,
20:54and he's already pitched more innings,
20:5770 more innings than he had from a year ago.
21:00He only pitched 104 innings a year ago.
21:03He's up to over 173 this year.
21:05So there's a lot of wear and tear,
21:07and he arms something he's not used to,
21:09but boy, is he assimilated really, really well
21:12to the starting pitching.
21:13My goodness.
21:15Spent the first five years of his MLB career
21:18with the New York Yankees.
21:19And prior to last year,
21:20Joe had never pitched more than 64 innings in a season,
21:24but he's been darn good.
21:25King has been better in the second half,
21:27as have the Padres.
21:28You compare these two teams.
21:30They ended out the opening half
21:32before the all-star break against one another.
21:34The Braves won that three game set.
21:37From that point though,
21:38since the all-star break,
21:39San Diego, the best team in baseball,
21:4143 and 20, the record.
21:44The Braves did everything they could to hold on
21:46and claim a playoff spot, 36 and 31.
21:50Since the all-star break,
21:52two teams that know each other
21:53that will now start the post-season against one another.
21:57The other wild card round in the NL of that.
21:59We will preview every single series
22:02around the wild card round in MLB
22:05that starts today on the very first day of October.
22:09It is October baseball on the opening day of October
22:12with the opening day of the MLB post-season.
22:15So the Atlanta Braves earned the 5C
22:18with a victory in the second game
22:19of the doubleheader yesterday in the A.
22:21They travel out to San Diego to take on the Padres.
22:25A lot of questions around who the Braves will send out
22:28for game one in the series outlook because of it overall.
22:32Not nearly as many, Joe,
22:33from the odds perspective for the 3-6 matchup
22:36in the National League.
22:37The Milwaukee Brewers,
22:38the champions of the National League Central.
22:40The New York Mets, the best team in baseball since June 1st.
22:44Milwaukee, minus 134 as the series outright favorite.
22:48The Mets, the underdog.
22:50It's a best of three series
22:52and the odds makers think it could be two or three.
22:56Two and a half being the overall games
22:59of that series over under.
23:02But on the spread, you can see where the Mets,
23:05oh, that doesn't make any sense.
23:06The Mets minus one and a half at minus 350.
23:08That's gotta be a plus one and a half.
23:11I'll confirm that here in just a moment
23:14because the Mets being in that spot
23:16would be the series underdog.
23:19Joe, how do you see this series playing out though?
23:21We use the odds to drive the conversation.
23:23Pretty much what we're asking.
23:25Can the Mets pull off the upset
23:26as they have been the best team in baseball
23:28since the start of June?
23:30Are we not giving enough credit to the Brewers?
23:32Are they going to win this series?
23:33Are we going to see it go the distance?
23:35That's just three games this week.
23:39Yeah, I do think the Brewers
23:41have the edge certainly early on, right?
23:44I mean, the Mets have the lesser
23:46of the bullpens here in this series.
23:50We also know they got the travel now here today, right?
23:54You got Nemo, Alonzo, Bader,
23:57most of their starters.
23:59Mattone, Edward Diaz already pitched.
24:02They're going to be down
24:04and they are going to have a whole lot of guys
24:06in this lineup here that have had to play
24:08a whole lot of baseball here down the stretch.
24:10So I also don't think the Mets have anybody truly elite
24:14starting pitching-wise.
24:15Severino is good, but he's not going to be somebody
24:19that I think is going to overwhelm.
24:21Not to mention, I think the Brewers are worse
24:24against lefties than they are against righties.
24:27I think the Brewers get the first one here today.
24:30I wouldn't be playing any overs necessarily in this series,
24:34but I do think that the Brewers have a pretty good shot
24:38of finishing this thing out.
24:40I do think it goes three games,
24:42but I do think the Brewers pick up the first one
24:44and will eventually win the last one as well.
24:47Joey, Joey, Luis Severino has been really good
24:51or really bad for a good majority of this season.
24:55Last three starts that he made, including last Tuesday,
24:59the opening game of the set against the Braves,
25:02he allowed four earned in only four innings.
25:04In fact, his last three starts,
25:06he gave up a total of 10 earned runs.
25:09That's not going to win you games now into the postseason.
25:12In fact, when you look at the last two months
25:14of his major league baseball season here,
25:17since the beginning of August,
25:19he has given up three plus earned runs
25:22in, as I do the quick math here,
25:23six of his 10 starts,
25:27but in the other four, an earned run or less.
25:31It has either been pretty mediocre or pretty darn solid.
25:34Of course, the Mets hoping it is solid today.
25:37He will take on in the opening game
25:40of this three game wild card set,
25:43Freddy Peralta at home.
25:44The Brew crew, a minus 142 favorite to win this series.
25:49And as Joe mentioned earlier,
25:50Milwaukee has gotten the better of New York
25:53so far this season.
25:55Really, we use a couple of sets to describe
25:58how the bigger picture of this season has gone.
26:01The Brewers swept the Mets in the very first series
26:05of this year, way back at the end of March.
26:08Okay, Milwaukee better than we expected them to be.
26:10They entered the National League Central
26:12with the fourth best price to win the division this year
26:15because Craig Council jumped ship to Chicago
26:17and to the friendly confines.
26:19But Pat Murphy rallied this Brewers team
26:21to win the NL Central by a ton.
26:25Never really in question in the second half and beyond.
26:29The Mets struggled in the opening two months of the year,
26:32but since June 1st, they were 24 and 33 at the end of May.
26:36Since June began that proud organization
26:38in its grimace era.
26:40Nobody better in baseball, 65 and 40.
26:44And Joe, because of it, I think this series,
26:46and we might see it with Atlanta and San Diego,
26:49but the Braves could be a little bit shorthanded.
26:51But this series could continue a theme that we have seen
26:56throughout the opening two years of the expanded playoffs.
26:59MLB expanded the postseason in full starting in 2022,
27:04the additional wildcard team.
27:05And we have seen wildcard teams carry the momentum
27:10of having to play playoff type baseball
27:13down the home stretch.
27:14The New York Mets have had to do that.
27:17Frankly though, in their second to last series in Milwaukee,
27:20the Brewers were good.
27:22You thought on paper, all right, a playoff preview,
27:24a potential tough spot for the Mets,
27:27but the Brewers didn't need it.
27:28Milwaukee won two of three.
27:30But again, Joe, in the overall theme
27:32of the expanded postseason,
27:34wildcard teams have stayed hot
27:36and we have debated rest versus rust.
27:40More so a picture perhaps in the division series,
27:42but could we see that here in the wildcard round?
27:45Yeah, I mean, listen, if things hold,
27:48serve like they've been over the last couple of seasons,
27:50then there's going to be one of these teams
27:52that everyone forgot or didn't think were going to make it
27:56that are going to continue,
27:57that being either Detroit or the Mets,
28:00in this particular case, in the National League here.
28:03But it's an interesting tale
28:05because we've got these best of three and best of five
28:08before we get to the pennant and the World Series, right?
28:12Right.
28:13You know, you're looking for teams
28:16that like to put the ball in play,
28:18that don't strike out a lot,
28:19that can play defense, can steal the extra base.
28:23Defensively, you can hold down.
28:25I mean, they're not the greatest hitted team
28:27in the world, the Brewers,
28:28but they don't strike out a ton
28:31and they're very good defensively, great bullpen.
28:34And of course they run the bases better than most.
28:37So it's a reason why this has been a tough matchup
28:41for the Mets all year.
28:42And I don't see it being any easier in this one.
28:45I think if the Mets can get by the Brewers,
28:48you need to seriously consider them
28:50being able to run the table into the World Series.
28:53And Joe, you know, it's crazy, as we said earlier,
28:56both of these teams that will face off
28:58in the wildcard round,
28:59despite the Brew Crew being the series favorite,
29:02despite Milwaukee having home field advantage,
29:04despite Milwaukee being the divisional champ,
29:07they have the same price to win the National League pennant.
29:10Are we underestimating Milwaukee?
29:12Are we giving too much credence to the Amazons?
29:15We will find out starting today
29:17between the Brewers and the Mets.
29:20I will just say this as well.
29:22Again, as we have seen in the expanded post-season
29:25in the National League, the pennant winner,
29:28each of the two years of the expanded playoff format
29:31has been a wildcard team.
29:33The Phillies, living up to red October last year,
29:36we had an all wildcard team face off
29:39in the NLCS a season ago.
29:42We've had it both of the years in the NLCS.
29:45The Phillies over the Padres in 2022,
29:47the D-backs over the Phils a season ago.
29:50We've got a lot of wildcard teams playing good baseball
29:53as of this moment.
29:56Let's go to the National League pennant odds.
29:58Well, I guess we're, no, we're not coming up on the break.
29:59We still have over a minute.
30:00Let's go to the National League pennant odds, Joe,
30:02because it's always been this year a tier of two.
30:06It's been the Dodgers and the Phillies.
30:08At a time, it was the Dodgers and the Braves,
30:10but Atlanta struggled to start the year
30:12and injuries kind of derailed the overall estimation
30:14of their season.
30:16Because it is a tier of two, plus 165, plus 175,
30:21a drop-off even of where San Diego is
30:23as the hefty favorite to knock off Atlanta
30:26in this wildcard round.
30:28Do you think there's value on the other teams
30:30outside of LA or Philly, or are the odds correct?
30:34And it's going to be one of those two divisional champs.
30:38Yeah, well, it certainly, the market certainly thinks so.
30:42We've been screaming the Padres have great value
30:45over the last month.
30:46Now they're down to five to one on that graphic there.
30:51I'm telling you right now, the more games they win,
30:54the less chance you're going to have
30:55of getting them at this prize.
30:57So if you haven't done so already,
30:58I do think the Padres, expect them to,
31:01there's no reason to think they won't continue
31:03the hot streak that they're on right now.
31:06Again, the best team in baseball since the all-star break.
31:10That is San Diego, five to one number,
31:13a number that has grown shorter and shorter
31:15over the last few weeks.
31:16Now to the American League side of things
31:18in the wildcard round next.
31:20Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid.
31:23We continue our MLB playoff preview
31:25on the opening day of October,
31:28the opening day of the wildcard round.
31:30All four series begin today.
31:33And Joe, that includes some afternoon baseball
31:37in Houston, the Astros and the Tigers.
31:40So let's start there with the overall series outlook.
31:44As we have said, nobody better than Detroit
31:47since the end of August,
31:48since the beginning of September,
31:50however you want to slice it.
31:52What the Tigers have done to earn a playoff berth
31:55is absolutely remarkable.
31:57And they will remember this run
31:59to end out the regular season,
32:00despite the result here in the post-season.
32:04The Tigers were 62 and 66 on August 22nd.
32:08Four games under 500, zero chance
32:11they were gonna catch anybody in the wildcard.
32:13Their two divisional mates in the Royals
32:15and the Twins were rolling the Orioles
32:18if they weren't going to win the American League East,
32:20pretty substantial cushion for that top spot.
32:23But then the Twins started to struggle.
32:25The Royals were on a small slide as well.
32:27And Detroit played unreal baseball, 24 and 11.
32:31Since that time, they were four games below 500
32:34on August 22nd, the best mark and the bigs.
32:38Can the Tigers continue the momentum here into October
32:41and maybe pull off the upset over a team
32:44with a ton of playoff experience
32:46and pedigree in the Houston Astros?
32:50Yeah, this is gonna be an interesting one.
32:54It's kind of amazing what Detroit has done
32:57given where they were and where they finished here, Ben,
33:01is kind of just absolutely crazy here
33:04when you consider the fact that at August 11th,
33:08I believe they were 55 and 63, if you can believe that.
33:11And then they finished at 31 and 12,
33:13which is just hilarious.
33:15And they're doing it without any household names whatsoever.
33:18People who didn't watch any baseball this year
33:21are gonna tune into a Tigers game and be like,
33:23who the hell is this?
33:26So Tyreke Scoble is going to be, obviously,
33:29the Cy Young Award winner in the American League,
33:31and rightfully so.
33:32He's probably the best pitcher.
33:35But I think this series, Ben,
33:37is won or lost on this game here, believe it or not.
33:40I think that's how important this game is.
33:42The Astros have exactly who they want on the mound,
33:46when they want, who has gotten better as the season went on.
33:51And I think they have won, what, 14 of his last 16 starts,
33:55or some crazy number along those lines.
33:57You got more experience with Altuve and Bregman
34:00than the entire Detroit Tigers franchise has
34:04in the postseason.
34:05This is the last hurrah for this group in Houston.
34:08The problem is they also don't have the big man, right?
34:12Or Albert, we're a little concerned about his knee injury.
34:15That's a concern and worth monitoring
34:17on any future bet for the Houston Astros.
34:22But when it all comes down to it,
34:24Franber has got the experience.
34:25I think he's got the higher ceiling.
34:28And I love Tariq Scouble,
34:30but I think this is going to be a very difficult game
34:33for them to win game number one
34:35against the ace of the Astros.
34:36I think Houston wins game one,
34:39and then in all likelihood wins it rather quickly to nothing.
34:42And that's the disappointing thing, right?
34:45It will not diminish what Detroit did
34:48to get into the postseason,
34:49what this means for the Tigers,
34:51their first playoff berth in a decade.
34:54Since 2014.
34:55What a time for Detroit sports,
34:57doing something we had not seen in a very long time,
35:00both for the Lions, now for the Tigers.
35:03I won't mention the Pistons and the historic losing skid
35:05because we're talking about positive
35:07and optimistic things now in the Motor City.
35:10But Joe, it is representative, right?
35:12Of this game, of this series.
35:14The Astros are nearly a dollar and a half favorite
35:17for game one today, this afternoon in H-Town.
35:20But it's actually a shorter number
35:22in favor of the Astros than the series overall.
35:26Why?
35:26Because Tarek Skubal gets the start for Detroit.
35:29He is going to win the American League Cy Young Award.
35:31He is 18-4 this year, time for the most wins in baseball.
35:35He's got a 2-3-9 ERA, second best in baseball,
35:39only behind Chris Sale.
35:41He has been lights out.
35:42He has been exactly what this young Tigers team needs.
35:46He is an ace to the letter of the word.
35:50But he's going up against Romer Valdez,
35:52that since the end of June has also pitched
35:54like a Cy Young contender.
35:57You are correct, Joe.
35:58Houston, as a club, has won 14 of the last 16 starts
36:02that Valdez has made since the end of June.
36:06Valdez himself has won 10 of those 14 games.
36:10This is what you want.
36:11This is playoff baseball.
36:13This is two aces battling it out.
36:15It's why the total is six and a half,
36:17and I don't think we see more than four runs.
36:19I will say this.
36:21Between Detroit and Houston, you mentioned a couple of names
36:25probably that not many people know
36:27around Major League Baseball.
36:28Riley Green, Matt Muirling, guys that have got it
36:30done all year long for the Tigers.
36:33Where would Detroit be?
36:35Where would this series be, at least in the odds expectation
36:39and in our mind, if the Tigers did not trade Jack Flaherty
36:44at the trade deadline at the end of August?
36:46If they had, or end of July rather,
36:48if they had two bonafide front-line starting pitchers,
36:52this could be a very different assessment.
36:54And the Tigers, even without Flaherty, got to this point.
36:58Tarek Scouble, a big reason why.
37:01Joe, I think I agree with you.
37:02I think the Astros probably win,
37:04and I think the Astros might even win this in a sweep.
37:08It's plus 195 for Houston to win this,
37:11two games to none in the best of three series.
37:14And I think there should be some appreciation
37:16and enjoyment for the Tigers,
37:18even if that feels kind of like a loser mentality.
37:22But it is, I think, a representation for the Tigers
37:26of promise this year,
37:28and promise for many more years to come.
37:30Oh, by the way, AJ Hinch, Revenge Set,
37:33the former manager of the Astros during the cheating scandal,
37:37now back in Houston as the skipper of the Tigers.
37:42Wondering if there's going to be any trashcan banging there.
37:45I think that should be very, very, very interesting
37:48when Al Tuve is up, that is for sure.
37:50But the Astros, best American League ERA since May 1st.
37:55The top three guys, hands down,
37:57are better than the top three guys in a rotation
38:00for the Detroit Tigers.
38:01I think that's where this series gets won or lost.
38:05Yep, and the Astros have prevailed through some injuries
38:08in their starting staff as well.
38:10We'll see about the status of Jordan Alvarez
38:12for this set and beyond.
38:14Again, when it comes to playoff pedigree,
38:17none of the teams in this 12-team field
38:20on either side of the league have more of it,
38:23proven experience, than Houston.
38:26They have been to seven consecutive ALCSs,
38:29seven consecutive,
38:31and they will try to start that march back to that point
38:34today with a victory at home over the Tigers.
38:37The other AL wildcard set,
38:39the other American League wildcard series
38:42between two rather young rosters,
38:44the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals.
38:48To Camden Yards we go.
38:50And Joe, despite Baltimore being just an even 500
38:53since the All-Star break,
38:55using all three wins against the Twins
38:57to end out the regular season
38:59to get to above 500 in the month of September,
39:02the O's have built up a rather large cushion
39:05for what is that top spot and home field advantage
39:09in the American League postseason to begin.
39:11Five games clear of KC.
39:14Things got a little bit dicey for Kansas City,
39:16although we thought they were a shoo-in to the postseason.
39:19In the second to last week of the regular season,
39:22they dropped seven straight games,
39:25but then a sweep and then a victory
39:28to end out the regular season against the Braves.
39:32The O's a pretty hefty favorite
39:33to win this wildcard set,
39:35a best of three series that begins today
39:37in the Charmed City.
39:39Do you think it's more competitive
39:40than that minus 172 series outright price would say
39:44in favor of Baltimore?
39:45No, I don't.
39:48I think this is an easy sweep for Baltimore here,
39:52mostly because Baltimore is not the Chicago White Sox.
39:56Had they been the Chicago White Sox,
39:58I would definitely be on the Royals
40:00since the Royals were just about 500
40:03against everybody else they played this year,
40:06only they went 12 and one against the White Sox.
40:08In fact, the White Sox,
40:09the argument can be made is really the only reason
40:12why we're seeing Detroit and Kansas City
40:14in the playoffs right now this year,
40:17and that's a fair argument to make.
40:19So I just don't think the Royals have been limping in
40:23over the last month here, Ben, into the season.
40:26I love Bobby Witt Jr.
40:28I think the kid is an absolute superstar here,
40:32but I don't trust any other part of this Royals team,
40:36nor do I trust the bullpen.
40:38I think Corbin Burns goes out there in game one,
40:41gets it done for him.
40:42I think this is an easy two nothing sweep here.
40:45Unfortunately for the Royals,
40:47they played their best baseball too soon in the season,
40:51and this has just been a struggle down the stretch.
40:54So I do think that,
40:55I do think the Orioles get it done two nothing here.
40:58And this is the promise for Baltimore, right?
41:01You take your post-season lumps as a young club.
41:04How do you learn from it?
41:06How do you gain that experience?
41:07And then how do you get better year over year?
41:10The O's were the number one seed
41:12in the American League post-season a year ago.
41:14They won more than a hundred games
41:16and they were bounced in a sweep in the division series
41:20by the Texas Rangers.
41:21Texas ended up winning a World Series.
41:23So there is comfort in that for the O's,
41:25but this is the time to take what you learned a year ago
41:28and put it into practice
41:30and make it a playoff success story.
41:33Baltimore is the hefty favorite.
41:35Corbin Burns gets the start today.
41:37For most of the year,
41:38Burns was an AL Cy Young consideration.
41:41Struggled a little bit down the stretch.
41:42He'll go up against Cole Reagans,
41:44who has also been very good this year for KC.
41:47Six and a half the total for both of our opening games
41:51in the wildcard rounds in the American League.
41:55Joe, when you look at the Royals,
41:57this is their first playoff berth
41:58since their World Series championship in 2015.
42:02Not a very different team than this one,
42:04but Salvador Perez does remain.
42:07They have the hits leader in MLB this year in Bobby Witt.
42:10Seth Lugo was great to start the year,
42:13more than likely going to be pitching in this series
42:15at some point,
42:17but you can see what the odds say
42:18and here in the tail of the tape.
42:21The Orioles are plus 190 to win this series in two games.
42:26The Astros plus 195 to win into the Brewers plus 250.
42:31The series odds from a correct score component,
42:34not out for the Braves and the Padres
42:36because of the uncertainty around Chris Sale's status.
42:38All to say that plus 190 price for a Baltimore sweep
42:42over KC is the shortest number for a sweep
42:46in the correct score market
42:48throughout any of these four wildcard series.
42:51Yeah, and the problem that I have with Kansas City
42:54is I do think Kansas City on some level, Ben,
42:57is much better suited for 162-game season
43:00than they are for a three-game set.
43:03You know, I love WACA, I love Lugo, I love Reagans,
43:07very good, but we also watched them barely hit 200
43:11down the stretch as a team.
43:13And the other problem that you need in short series
43:17is you need the ability and the threat of the long ball.
43:20Nobody has that threat better than Baltimore
43:22outside of the Yankees who had 235 home runs this year.
43:26That is not what the Royals do.
43:28If they don't manufacture runs, they don't score.
43:31That's a problem in a short series in a playoffs.
43:34Joe, think about the September records
43:36for all of the 12 MLB teams.
43:38Tigers, 17-8, Padres, 16-8, Mets, 17-9.
43:43Even the Brewers were pretty good, 13-13.
43:46I mean, that's one of the worst records of this all.
43:48The Orioles, 13-12.
43:50The Royals, the only team with a losing record in September
43:54into the postseason at 11-14.
43:57Our third and final hour on TEL is up next.
44:00The opening day of October,
44:02a day we have been getting ready for all year long
44:05with our MLB insider and the host of Newswire.
44:09It's Craig Misch joining us live right here on this Tuesday
44:12on the early line.
44:14Craig, all summer long, all MLB regular season long
44:17has built to this point.
44:19Playoff baseball starts on the very first day
44:22of this month of October.
44:24How excited are you?
44:26Very excited, and I feel like these series
44:28are going to be really unpredictable.
44:29So I'll give my best leans, I'll give my best opinions,
44:32but I simply don't recall going into a postseason
44:36where we just have not had dominant teams
44:38in the regular season.
44:39No one has been overly dominant.
44:41Anything can happen.
44:43Nobody got to 100 this year around MLB,
44:46the first time in nearly a decade.
44:48So a significant day as October begins, Craig,
44:52but yesterday, a sad day in Major League Baseball as well
44:55with the passing of the all-time hits leader,
44:58Charlie Hustle, Pete Rose.
45:00A complicated legacy, of course, in MLB,
45:03banished from the sport for betting on his own team,
45:06the Reds, when he was a player manager
45:08back in the mid to late 80s.
45:10But his accomplishments on the Diamond,
45:12those are hard to argue.
45:14How do you remember Pete Rose
45:15and what he meant to the sport of baseball?
45:18Yeah, look, he was, you know, for his era and for his time,
45:21before the game changed in a different way,
45:24you know, he's the hit king.
45:25I mean, all-time hit king, played at a very high level.
45:28Basically, as long as anybody has ever played the game.
45:31And then things got complicated after that, of course,
45:33with him as a manager and the whole, you know,
45:35gambling scandal and everything that happened like that.
45:38And then certainly later on, made his way in Las Vegas,
45:41signing autographs every single day.
45:43It's amazing that he could do that
45:44for about 20 years every day,
45:47that people would still come in
45:49and get his autographs all those years later.
45:51My best experience that I could have with him
45:54was probably about seven, eight years ago,
45:56maybe a little bit longer.
45:58We invited him at the time I was hosting
46:00and producing a television show on Fox Sports Florida
46:03at the time, which is now Bally.
46:05And he came into our studio.
46:06He actually came into our studio
46:08and we recorded basically a whole show with him.
46:11And guys, the one thing that I could say
46:13in doing that show for about 10 years,
46:16he was the only guest that we ever had on
46:19that stayed for two hours after the show ended.
46:23And we just sat there and talked baseball.
46:25It was really one of those incredible moments for me
46:28learning so much about the game with him there.
46:29There was no doubt his love for the game.
46:33Pete Rose has sadly passed away at the age of 83.
46:37All right, Greg, now we fire around
46:38to all four of our wild card sets
46:41that begin the post-season that start today.
46:43A quadruple header of baseball
46:45on the opening day of October.
46:48Four, that's like all the bases.
46:51It's time for the Daily Bases post-season edition.
46:55♪♪
46:57Greg!
46:59You got to bring in Joe Lisi
47:01for the opposition play.
47:02Lisi running right now.
47:04He sounds like he's running for something.
47:05I don't know what.
47:06Come on, man.
47:08That's ugly.
47:09The guy got his car stolen and you're taking shots?
47:12That's not right.
47:13Why did he get his car stolen?
47:14Oh, my gosh, that's terrible.
47:15When did that happen?
47:16I had no idea.
47:17He thinks it's because the picks were bad
47:19on Saturday in college football
47:21that a loyal SportsGrid viewer
47:24boosted his car.
47:26Yeah, listen, tough for the guy.
47:29He'll find it back.
47:30He'll find it back in baseball.
47:32All right, Greg, let's start
47:34with the first of our NL wild card series
47:37to get underway today in Milwaukee.
47:39The Mets win the opening game
47:40of the double header yesterday
47:42to clinch the playoff berth.
47:44The Brew Crew, pretty hefty favorite
47:46for this opening game,
47:48but, Greg, in terms of the outright prices
47:50for a wild card set,
47:52this is the closest margin
47:53between Milwaukee and New York.
47:55How close do you expect the series
47:57to be between the Mets and the Brewers?
48:00We haven't seen a lot of wild card series
48:02in the past go three games.
48:04I'm not really sure
48:06why that has been the case.
48:07I anticipate a lot of these games
48:10going three this time around.
48:12I don't think we're going to see
48:13a lot of sweeps.
48:14These teams are very evenly matched.
48:16The Mets have to be feeling great
48:17about themselves going into this.
48:19Milwaukee has been extraordinary at home.
48:22This series, guys, is too close to call,
48:26and in a lot of these series,
48:27I'm going to feel like this.
48:28I obviously will have an opinion on something
48:30before we get done with this,
48:32but honestly, they're very evenly matched.
48:36What I find fascinating in particular, Ben,
48:39about all of these games today,
48:41I would have to go back and look historically,
48:43and I understand post-season baseball,
48:44the scoring goes down six and a half total,
48:48six and a half total,
48:49seven total, and a seven and a half.
48:51There isn't a single eight total on the board
48:53for game one of the Major League Baseball post-season.
48:56That tells you all you need to know.
48:57Even the odds makers don't know
48:59who's going to win these games.
49:02Not very much fun.
49:04I mean, congratulations, Braves.
49:06You won the second game.
49:07You're into post-season,
49:09but now Chris Sale, back injuries,
49:12rotation is a mess.
49:14Padres have been waiting.
49:16I believe they're the highest seed, Craig,
49:17so they get all games at home
49:18regardless now in the wild card.
49:21Advantage Padres,
49:23but does that mean they win the series?
49:26Yeah, Joe, heavy advantage Padres,
49:28but again, this is a series
49:30where the Braves are going to win.
49:31They're going to win a game.
49:32I mean, you saw what happened yesterday
49:34with their offense when it exploded.
49:35Ozzie Albies went nuts.
49:37Too much offense on the Braves to get swept.
49:40I think your thinking is probably accurate.
49:41It does feel like the Padres
49:43should be favored to win the series,
49:45but if I was going to bet this,
49:47I would wait to see what happens after game one.
49:49If you're going to bet the Padres,
49:50there's no reason to do that now.
49:52Wait to see if the Braves pull one off
49:53and then take the other side.
49:55Again, I hate to start off with this
49:57in the first day of the postseason,
49:59but these series are extraordinarily close.
50:02Yeah, absolutely so,
50:03and with the status of Chris Sale uncertain,
50:05although maybe unlikely to pitch in this series,
50:09could flip this set on its head in San Diego.
50:12Craig, there has been no hotter team
50:14in the month of September
50:15or since the end of August
50:17than the Detroit Tigers to rally
50:18to earn their first playoff bid in a decade.
50:22Can they continue the momentum today
50:25and in this series against a team
50:27with a ton of playoff pedigree
50:28in the Houston Astros?
50:30Yeah, a couple of weeks ago,
50:31I think we talked about this.
50:32We went over World Series odds and playoff odds,
50:34and I'm like, Detroit is not in.
50:36Take them because they're playing the best baseball.
50:38So I think they absolutely have a shot.
50:40I think it's going to be tough for them
50:42to win in game one.
50:43I understand they have to re-Scooble,
50:45but Houston has Fran Bervaldez.
50:47This guy has been amazing in the postseason.
50:49I would think that this is the one game
50:51of those four that goes under the total.
50:53I cannot imagine a lot of runs.
50:55Six and a half is that number, Craig.
50:57Let's finish with the O's and the Royals.
50:59Who wins this wildcard round?
51:02Yeah, this is the one series
51:03I do think the Orioles win the series.
51:06That would be the way that I would lean here.
51:08Kansas City didn't play great in September.
51:11The Orioles have burns in game one,
51:12a lot of offense.
51:13I'll take the Orioles to win this one in three.
51:16Some conviction from Craig.
51:18And we'll see you on Newswire
51:19in a little bit more on the early linebacks.