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00:00And now it's time for the TDN Writers' Room Weekend Preview, brought to you by Three Chimneys.
00:11I got an idea, guys.
00:12Let's take a deep dive into all the stakes races that are being run this weekend, and
00:17let's extend the podcast.
00:18What would that take?
00:19About six hours, something like that.
00:22This is a weekend to get so excited about, because look at these numbers.
00:26There are 24 graded stakes races being run this weekend, 13 win-and-you're-in races,
00:31and nine grade ones.
00:33This, of course, is the last big shebang before the Breeders' Cup comes Sunday morning.
00:37Actually, I would say come Sunday afternoon, after all the big races are run, we'll have
00:42a pretty good idea, at least from the American horses, who's going where and what races.
00:46But you know what?
00:47I'm more interested, perhaps, well, I'm interested in all these races, but the ones I'm really
00:51looking forward to are the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic out at Aqueduct and the Beldame.
00:56The news broke this weekend that Warlike Goddess is going to go in the Joe Hirsch, and it looked
01:00like kind of a, you know, just a ho-hum race.
01:04Goofo's in there, obviously.
01:05He's a very solid horse in this division.
01:07But I think Warlike Goddess will really spruce things, spice things up.
01:11Bill Mott, the way he's been campaigning this, Mayor, it's very interesting.
01:15It shows why he's a Hall of Famer.
01:17He thinks the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mayer Turf is too short for her at a mile three-sixteenths.
01:21Wants to run her in a mile and a half against the boys in the Breeders' Cup Turf.
01:25So why not take on the boys beforehand in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic?
01:28Now, we record this before the entries are out, before the PPs are out, before we have
01:33the morning line.
01:34But, Randy, I think she's as good, if not better, than any of the boys in this marathon
01:39turf division, at least in the U.S.
01:40I don't know what the boys are going to bring over from Europe, but right now, I give her
01:43a chance, a big chance, in both Saturday's race at Aqueduct, Belmont, at the Big A, as
01:48well as the Breeders' Cup.
01:50I think Mott is playing his hand very sharply here.
01:53I think she is the best mile and a half turf course in America of either sex.
02:00And I think she's going to be a leading contender for the Breeders' Cup Turf.
02:03Of course, the Europeans typically dominate that race, so we'll see what they bring over.
02:07But her loss in the Flower Bowl, in her last start at Saratoga, I think she lost nothing
02:13at all in the way of stature for that defeat, because she had the most god-awful trip.
02:19A horribly, horribly slow pace, and then she was in traffic and couldn't get extricated
02:25until it was too late.
02:26Despite the fact the pace was so slow, she came charging up late and just failed to get
02:32up.
02:33So she lost nothing in defeat there.
02:34Now, Gufo's a nice horse.
02:36They both have similar running styles.
02:38They come from well back in the pack.
02:40So it'll be a nice test for Warlight Goddess.
02:43And also, both horses are maybe not as much as it would be if the race were run on dirt,
02:49but they are somewhat pace-dependent.
02:51And looking at the list of probables for this race, there aren't a lot of confirmed speed
02:56horses in here.
02:57I mean, Chad Brown, of course, is always going to be tough to beat.
03:01He's got a couple on the probable possible list, Ad Homo and Rock Emperor.
03:06But you know, Warlight Goddess, even with very little early speed in here, I think is
03:11going to be the horse to beat.
03:13Absolutely.
03:14I mean, I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall to hear the conversation between
03:18Joel and Bill Mott after the last race.
03:22And I mean, Bill's not going to tell Joel what to do.
03:25He's not that kind of guy.
03:26But you know, you're right in the one to five favorite.
03:30There are many different ways to win a horse race and only, I mean, many different ways
03:34to lose and only one way to win.
03:36So it'll be interesting.
03:37But I think we'll see perhaps a little bit more of a productive ride from Joel this time.
03:44And the other race I'm looking forward to it, BAC, B-A-Q, the racing form abbreviation
03:49for this meet, of course, is the bell dame because, you know, Nest has been a little
03:52bit overshadowed this year because she is a filly, of course.
03:55And you know, all the hype has been for Flightline and justifiably so in the NEPA center in the
03:59male division.
04:01So let's not forget how good she is.
04:02And Todd Pletcher is dividing up his two big guns for the Breeders' Cup Distaff with Malathat
04:07going Sunday in the Spencer Stakes at Keeneland.
04:10And Randy, I mean, Nest is turned into obviously the best three-year-old filly in her division.
04:15I think it's possible she's already, I wouldn't say it's possible, I'd say it's quite likely
04:19that she's already wrapped up the three-year-old filly Eclipse Award.
04:22And I also give Pletcher credit.
04:23He's one of the trainers that isn't ducking all these, you know, training up to the Breeders'
04:28Cup.
04:30He ran Life is Good in the Woodward.
04:32He's running Malathat in the Spencer.
04:34He's running Nest in the Belden.
04:36Those are his three biggest guns among many for the Breeders' Cup when it comes to Keeneland
04:41later on in November, the first week in November.
04:43So you know, she's always, you know, again, right now it looks like a small field.
04:48I don't know if she'll be one to 20 like Life is Good, but she'll be a huge favorite in
04:52that race.
04:53And she's excited anytime she shows up.
04:55Oh, to me, Bill, right now, if you were to make a line for the Breeders' Cup to staff
04:59and it looks like a pretty solid race, I think Nest would have to be the favorite.
05:03She has been absolutely dominating in her last few races.
05:08She started off the season good as a three-year-old filly, obviously, and she's just gotten better
05:12and better and better as the years progressed.
05:15She's got tactical speed, so she can maybe avoid some trouble early in a race.
05:21She's got that sort of ability to be wherever her rider wants her to be and to take advantage
05:27of a slow pace or sit back a little further in case the pace is fast.
05:32And looking at the building, she definitely looks like a heavy, heavy favorite.
05:38Yeah, I basically predict maybe a four-horse field for those facing Nest and she'll be
05:45one to nine and she'll probably park.
05:47She's actually a really cool filly to be around.
05:49She's not an overly big filly.
05:51Sometimes you think these fillies, especially that run in the Belmont, are massive, and
05:56she's not.
05:57She's very feminine.
05:58She's got a dainty way of going.
05:59She's just a pure racehorse.
06:01She's an absolute racehorse.
06:02If you look it up in the book, you'll find a picture of her.
06:05She's amazing.
06:06It'll be interesting, too.
06:08They ran in the Belmont and they, for just a minute, gave some thought to running in
06:13the Traverse.
06:14I assume she's coming back at four.
06:15Most good fillies and mayors in this day and age do come back as four-year-olds.
06:19I wonder if they'll try the boys next year.
06:21If they pick the right spot, I would love to see that pull a Rachel Alexandra.
06:24Well, she's obviously good enough, especially if she continues on this path of improvement.
06:33Typically, you see three-year-olds improve toward the end of the year, but not always.
06:38Sometimes they're so precocious and she was good early in the year that they basically
06:42stay on the same plane throughout the three-year-old year and they don't improve.
06:46Nest is one of those horses that started good and now she's gotten better and better.
06:51I think if they do choose to run her against the boys, I think she'd be very competitive.
06:56This TDN Writer's Room in the Weekend Preview is brought to you by Three Chimneys.
07:00We heard from Tim Martin talk about his sensational two-year-old, Tyler's Tribe, who's an unbeaten
07:06five-for-five right now.
07:08Tyler's Tribe is a son of Three Chimney stallion Sharp Azteca, who currently leads this class
07:14of first crop sires in North America with 27 winners already this year.
07:19Furthermore, in the upcoming Claiborne Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, Sharp Azteca has a
07:24potential starter there in Honed, who was second last out in the grade three Iroquois
07:29stake and another Three Chimney sire, Funtastic, might be represented in the Breeders Futurity
07:35by Funtastic again.
07:38We'll be right back for part two of the Weekend Preview after this message from Three Chimneys.
07:45Here comes Taba.
07:47Taba in the center of the track with good looking strides.
07:50Squares off with Cyberknife.
07:51Cyberknife takes the lead.
07:53Taba going with him.
07:54These two in a thriller.
07:55Cyberknife just in front.
07:57And Cyberknife has won the TBG.com Haskell over Taba.
08:02Jack Christopher finished third.
08:04The running time, 1 minute 46.24 seconds.
08:10Come, dream with us at Three Chimneys.
08:15Well, welcome back.
08:16This is the Weekend Preview brought to you by Three Chimneys.
08:19Zoe, a lot going on out at Saturday at Santa Anita.
08:22Two-year-old races in the lineup with the American Pharoah in the chandelier.
08:25Surprise, surprise.
08:26Bob Baffert will be front and center.
08:27What do you know about, first of all, the American Pharoah?
08:29Yeah, well, Bob Baffert going to be having at least three in there.
08:32We mentioned the three amigos earlier.
08:35His trio, or maybe he's got four in there, will be led by Cave Rock, a son of Arrogate,
08:40who is undefeated.
08:41He's won his last two by multiple lengths.
08:44It's not often that we talk about a son of Arrogate that actually looks like Arrogate.
08:48He moves like Arrogate.
08:50He just had a really good work.
08:51You can catch that on xbtv.com.
08:54He definitely does appear a horse with a very bright future.
08:58We'll have the grade one chandelier as well.
09:00A winner you're in for the juvenile fillies.
09:02Looks like Bob Baffert may lead the roster with home cooking in there for him.
09:07And, of course, the Zuma Beach.
09:09And let's just not forget the turf races.
09:12We'll have the grade one rodeo drive as well.
09:14A win and you're in for the filly and mare turf.
09:17So a bunch of really good races this weekend at Santa Anita.
09:21Randy, how good are these Baffert horses?
09:23They're fast, aren't they?
09:25Cave Rock, especially.
09:28His first two races were just off the charts.
09:31Buyer speed figures of 101 and then a 98 in the Del Mar Futurity.
09:35He can run fast early and keep going.
09:40He is also very high on national treasure.
09:43He wanted to run national treasure at Keeneland in the Breeders Futurity.
09:47That was his early plan.
09:49And he thought he could win both races this weekend.
09:51But because the purse money at Santa Anita is not as good as the purse money
09:55at Churchill Downs and Kentucky Downs and Saratoga,
09:58he was afraid, he was told by the Keeneland Racing Office,
10:01there was a pretty good chance national treasure wouldn't be able to get in
10:05in case the race is oversubscribed and it comes down to career earnings at Keeneland.
10:09So he called an audible, opted to keep national treasure
10:12there in California for the American Pharoah.
10:14But he thinks he's in with a big shot as well.
10:16Zoe, an interesting horse in there.
10:18It says Josie, he's a maiden,
10:20but he's got a big buyer figure, costs $3.5 million at the sales.
10:24He's got to have a shot too, doesn't he?
10:26A maiden winning a grade one race in this case would not be a surprise.
10:30Basically, we're talking distance, distance, distance.
10:33He's a son of Bernardini.
10:35He's going to get better as he goes longer.
10:38Barry Young bought him for Zidane.
10:40Everyone got carried away that day at the sale
10:42and paid an awful lot of money for him.
10:44But anytime Baffert runs a maiden in a graded stakes race,
10:48you really have to pay attention.
10:50Didn't American Pharoah break his maiden in a grade one race?
10:52I don't know.
10:54You threw me a curveball there.
10:56I'm not really sure.
10:58All right.
11:00So let's head out to Keeneland now.
11:02And last but certainly not least,
11:04what a big weekend of racing,
11:06you've got the Breeders' Futurity,
11:08you've got the First Lady,
11:10you've got the Coolmore Turf Mile.
11:12Sunday, you've got the Spinster Stakes.
11:14We talked about that earlier.
11:16The race I'm looking for,
11:18and this is always a really good race,
11:20both from a betting standpoint
11:22because it gets a big field and fairly wide open,
11:24and also from just a quality standpoint
11:26is the Coolmore Turf Mile.
11:28You've got Ivor who ran second last time out
11:30behind Modern Games in the Woodbine Mile,
11:32the Rico Woodbine Mile.
11:34You've also got a couple of races
11:36off a win in the four-star date.
11:38Santon, the Arlington Millionaire winner
11:40coming into there.
11:42Randy, that race is going to be loaded.
11:44Your thoughts on what's going on
11:46at Keeneland this weekend?
11:48Those horses and a smooth like straight
11:50makes the trip east for trainer Mike McCarthy.
11:52I mean, he's a seriously legitimate
11:54grade one miler as well
11:56who has good form in past races
11:58in Kentucky.
12:00So with those horses,
12:02he's rated six races for Belmont.
12:04Ivor's last race running second
12:06to Modern Games at Woodbine
12:08in the Woodbine Mile
12:10I thought was sensational.
12:12He got off to an even slower start
12:14than usual. He was four wide
12:16around the turn following Modern Games
12:18in that race. He fanned even wider at the top
12:20of the stretch. He was pushed out at about
12:22the 360th pole when William Buick
12:24came out for room on Modern Games.
12:26He didn't elbow anybody, did he?
12:28Yeah, he didn't elbow anybody, but
12:30he did make his way out. He did bull his way out.
12:32But yeah, he was blown away by Modern Games
12:34of course. Modern Games is going to be
12:36right now, I think, it looks like he's going to be
12:38a pretty solid favorite for the Breeders' Cup Mile.
12:40So to still run
12:42second in a good number
12:44for Ivor in that race
12:46given the way his trip went,
12:48I think he's set up to run well in here.
12:50And he won this race two years
12:52ago back in 2020.
12:54Yeah,
12:56Paul Alobo really knows how to lead
12:58those good horses over for the stakes
13:00races at Keeneland. He's stabled
13:02down there. He was in Southern California for an
13:04awfully long time, and now he's stabled
13:06on Rice Road. And he's really had
13:08a very productive meet
13:10each and every meet. He seems to
13:12win at greatest stakes. Am I crazy? But
13:14does Paul Alobo not win at greatest
13:16stakes every Keeneland meet?
13:18The two-year-old races
13:20are also going to be front and center, guys. You've got
13:22the Alcibiades on Friday and the Claiborne Breeders'
13:24Futurity on Saturday. The Breeders' Futurity
13:26mentioned National Treasure is not
13:28making the trip. Baffert called an
13:30audible and is putting Newgate on the
13:32plane along with Carmel Road
13:34to come to Keeneland and face
13:36hopeful winner Forte, who
13:38was flattered, of course, by the win
13:40and the hopeful by Chad
13:42Brown's horse on
13:44Saturday. So you've also got a horse in there
13:46by the name of Lost Ark from the Todd
13:48Pletcher Barn, who is a half-brother
13:50to Nest, and who is also
13:52in very good form right now. Alcibiades,
13:54fun and feisty.
13:56Looked really, really good winning the
13:58Pocahontas. Figure wasn't all that good, but
14:00visually, nice move on the second
14:02turn. Very impressive. So those
14:04races are interesting to me as well.
14:06Yeah, once again, it's a spectacular weekend.
14:08Once again, here are the numbers. 24 graded stakes
14:10races, 13 win in your inns,
14:12and nine grade ones, all
14:14major preps for the Breeders' Cup. So it should be
14:16a fascinating and very exciting
14:18and very meaningful weekend on
14:20the American racing scene this weekend.
14:24Music by Ben Thede