"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Rabu (19/03/2025) dengan Tema Analisis Saham TLKM, MDKA, BBRI, BMRI".
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00:00KENJI PUTRA CAHAYA, HEAD OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, PTFAC SEKURITAS INDONESIA
00:05Back again with us, Pemirsa, at MarketBuzz.
00:07Still talking with Kenji Putra Cahaya,
00:10Head of Business Development, PTFAC Sekuritas Indonesia.
00:13What do you think, Kenji, about the comments that
00:17Indonesia's economic fundamentals are still good,
00:19the emissions, especially from Bank Himbara, are still very good,
00:22and the dividend is very high,
00:24then the APBN deficit, which might have been a drawback at the beginning of the year,
00:27is only because of the weak purchasing power, which is temporary,
00:30and because of the tax system, which is not yet optimal,
00:33maybe because of Cortex.
00:35What do you think, in short, about the fundamentals
00:39that make people or market players
00:41a bit doubtful, especially since it was dropped by
00:44an international institution?
00:47Okay, from the more massive policies,
00:51overall, in terms of numbers, it is still maintained, I would say.
00:56But we also have to understand that
01:00this main driver is indeed for the economy,
01:03especially in the consumer sector, for Indonesia,
01:06it is the middle class,
01:07whether it is middle to bottom or middle to top.
01:10But now, working in the formal sector is also under pressure.
01:15As we know, the manufacturing industry in the country is not okay.
01:19There is a massive PHK behind this,
01:22so even though the financing is still considered to be sufficient,
01:28in fact, at the technical level, in the mining sector,
01:31and in this real sector, it is still under pressure.
01:34So it is necessary, if I look at foreign,
01:37especially be more careful for entry to us,
01:40as long as the condition is still not quite stable,
01:44it can be said like that.
01:46Because you choose assets that are safe haven, of course.
01:49So be careful.
01:51What is the situation like today?
01:53Or in the short term, after yesterday, it went down quite extremely.
01:58If I remember correctly, today is still in range,
02:01we expect for the IHSG to consolidate between 6,150 for support limits
02:08and 6,500 for the resists that we want to break.
02:12It's quite wide, right?
02:14That's right. But the range, we hope,
02:17is not to break support below 6,150.
02:20Okay, if the support break is below 6,150,
02:23even yesterday it was 6,011.
02:26There is a potential for us to go back to the top 5 range,
02:31around 5,800-5,900, based on the weakness.
02:35Okay.
02:37Let's go to the opening of the trade.
02:38The joint share price index is trying to strengthen the bearer
02:41with a weakness of 0.12%, or only 6 points.
02:476,218.
02:50Earlier, the joint share price index tested the position at 6,147,
02:56but managed to rise again,
03:00and now it's green at 6,229.
03:04With the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar
03:06weakening at 16,519.
03:10There is also a bearer in the stock market
03:12that has become a genius and also a loser based on value,
03:14as you can see on the screen.
03:18It looks like all sectors are starting to green.
03:22There are four of them, the bearer is there.
03:24Then the stocks that have become top gainers,
03:26you can also see.
03:27Banking stocks such as BBRI,
03:30then we see PTRO, PSAB, BRMS, WIFI,
03:36then top losers based on value,
03:38you can also see AMRT, IOTF,
03:41then some other stocks.
03:44That's the opening update.
03:46It's normal when there is a strength,
03:48to try to strengthen the past extreme weakening, Mr. Kenji?
03:53That's right, as I said, sooner or later,
03:56it will definitely react,
03:58especially now when foreign countries are out.
04:02These are usually domestic investors
04:06who take positions,
04:07and it is proven that for some big banks,
04:12some fundamental that are quite okay,
04:16especially since the season has not yet divided the dividends,
04:20so for domestic investors or traders,
04:23I think it will still take a position.
04:26It will still take a position,
04:28just like what was said earlier by investor Kawakan Lokenghong,
04:32he said he was in a hurry to take a position,
04:35there was a trading halt yesterday,
04:37and he felt that it was a bit awkward
04:41for people who collect goods, he said.
04:46So, with deep weaknesses
04:49and opportunities that Mr. Kenji mentioned,
04:51are you more interested in stocks?
04:53What is it like? Let's see the following data,
04:55our viewers will summarize in the graph.
04:57Stock recommendations from Mr. Kenji,
05:00there is Telkom Trading Buy,
05:01MDKA Trading Buy,
05:02BRI Buy on Weakness,
05:04Bang Mandiri Trading Buy.
05:08What makes you more interested in these four stocks?
05:11We start from Telkom.
05:13Okay, Telkom is quite defensive,
05:17in the sense that technically it is already level support,
05:20and there are also signs of reversal.
05:22And from the fundamentals,
05:25also from the emittance,
05:27it projects that there will be an increase in traffic broadband,
05:30about 28% year-on-year,
05:33so we expect the job to be even better,
05:36especially since this is in the holiday season,
05:40usually the need for communication will also increase.
05:44So I think the technical is okay,
05:47fundamentally we also have the backing in the heart
05:51for things that can support it,
05:54it's pretty good, I say for Telkom now.
05:56Okay. Entry price at what level
05:58and what positions can be respected
06:00in the middle, you said there was a chance of reversal.
06:04Okay, for Telkom, the entry price is between 2420-2450,
06:10but now at 2400 it can still be,
06:13but once again, if the market is like this,
06:16I don't recommend all-in,
06:18maybe more, we still keep our portfolio ratio
06:2120-30% for the current condition.
06:25Okay.
06:26Long term target at 2850,
06:28for the resistance we can break at 2680,
06:32beware of stop-loss if it touches the level of 2260 for Telkom.
06:37Let's go to MDKA.
06:40MDKA is interesting, like the commodity,
06:42like I mentioned earlier,
06:44if this risky asset is avoided for market conditions
06:48and macro like this,
06:50usually they will resort to safe haven,
06:53one of them is gold, of course.
06:56For several emitters, I noticed
06:58and technically quite good
07:00in terms of stochastic and MACD,
07:02there is also universal signal from MDKA.
07:05So, I support all of them,
07:07for us to have a safe haven.
07:10Okay, in terms of safe haven,
07:12if we talk about shares related to safe haven or gold,
07:15we are interested in MDKA.
07:16MDKA this morning, unlike Telkom,
07:19grew 1.41% at 1435.
07:23What is the opportunity like?
07:24If we look at the movement patterns,
07:28then the buy levels.
07:31Okay, for MDKA,
07:33my recommendation is trading buy,
07:35because again,
07:37even though this is a safe haven commodity,
07:42for the current market conditions,
07:45we don't expect in the long run.
07:48So, let's say the area is 1650
07:51for the first profit taking,
07:53continue to 1700 to 1800 for the second profit taking.
07:56Take advantage of the booming
07:58or record of the commodity price
08:00that has exceeded US$3,000 per ounce.
08:05Okay.
08:06You also recommended BRI,
08:07and rebound this morning
08:092% more at 3760,
08:11you said buy on weakness.
08:13If it has rebounded like this,
08:14is it still interesting to buy at the lower level?
08:17Okay, I don't know if it has rebounded like this.
08:20This is a domestic commodity
08:22that has entered the chip.
08:25I think it still can,
08:26but the potential for profit taking
08:28is not so widespread anymore.
08:33Because the break is in the 3810 area,
08:36there is still a chance to break through to the 4000 area.
08:40There is still a chance to the 4000 area,
08:42it is starting to be a bit limited,
08:43but for medium,
08:45is it interesting for BRI?
08:48For banking, for medium,
08:50maybe I haven't suggested it yet.
08:51We are still waiting,
08:53we are still waiting for some macro factors,
08:56and especially more concerned about domestic commodities.
08:59Okay.
09:00Still wait-and-see first.
09:01Independent?
09:03Independent, the technical is good,
09:06especially for independent,
09:07so the concern is the same as BRI.
09:11RSI is already in the phase of oversold,
09:14the stochastic is also there,
09:16there are already signals of reversal.
09:18But for independent,
09:20my target is a bit higher.
09:24We can take a position,
09:26if we enter the area now,
09:28we can expect to stick to the 5000 area,
09:32the 4900 area can already profit take,
09:35partially, or will break.
09:37In the 5100 area,
09:39we can profit take first for independent.
09:43That's for independent.
09:45But the tip is to limit,
09:47or keep the portfolio ratio,
09:49currently only 20-30%,
09:51if chip-in.
09:52Are there any other tips before we end?
09:54Mr. Kenji, maybe later,
09:55the flower of Bank Indonesia,
09:56maybe the decision of The Fed,
09:58even though it is expected to remain,
10:01and if you want a holiday like this,
10:03what should be done?
10:04In short, Mr. Kenji, maybe there is?
10:06Okay.
10:07The point is,
10:08I think don't follow FOMO,
10:10because usually when the market crashes,
10:12that's right,
10:13that's the moment for us to take a position,
10:15but still keep using cold money,
10:17I think 20-30% porto is quite wise.
10:21Okay, 20-30% porto is still quite wise,
10:24and don't FOMO, right?
10:26That's right.
10:27Okay, thank you, Mr. Kenji,
10:28for sharing the information,
10:29hopefully it can be a reference for investors,
10:31wherever you are.
10:32And, Mr. Kenji, thank you,
10:34see you again, good morning.
10:36Good morning, thank you, Mabisa.
10:38That's it, investors,
10:39hopefully what we present can be a reference,
10:42again, our investment decision,
10:43back to you, Mr. Mirza.