La situación financiera de Argentina atraviesa un periodo de control de daños, con el Banco Central interviniendo en la brecha cambiaria. A pesar de los esfuerzos para minimizar el impacto, el riesgo país ha aumentado y los activos argentinos han caído. La economía muestra signos de asfixia en la generación de dólares, mientras que las reservas del Banco Central siguen siendo insuficientes. El gobierno busca un acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional como puente hacia una estabilidad más sólida. Sin embargo, las reformas estructurales necesarias avanzan lentamente, generando incertidumbre sobre el futuro económico del país.
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00:00How does the week end for Argentina?
00:04I would say that there is a scenario, at least in terms of financial damage control.
00:13It was a difficult week.
00:16I would say that two and a half months ago there is a certain tension,
00:22not so much in the economy, but more in the financial part of the exchange.
00:25The bonds stopped going up, the payment of the coupons was expected on January 9th.
00:32Since then, let's say, the GDP is going up, the Argentinian assets are going down,
00:36the Merval was at 2,300 dollars, today it is at 1,900 and something.
00:40The Central Bank is intervening in the exchange rate.
00:43The exchange rate had reached 5% in December, today it is in the area of 12, 14, 17, somewhat intervened.
00:49On this scenario, which was already somewhat tense, the CryptoGate issue appears.
00:58It was a week, I think the damage was minimized, at least in this regard.
01:03The damage was controlled?
01:05It was minimized.
01:07And what do you think of the impact?
01:10Do you think it was already reduced and it will stay there?
01:15No, I can't say.
01:16I don't know what they tell you when you talk to external clients, I don't know what is said outside.
01:23Let's separate possible reaches.
01:26In the economic plan, there is no immediate impact.
01:29The decision-making does not stop, it is paralyzed.
01:32Obviously, questions begin to appear.
01:34In the financial plan, if you think there is a little more tension, more instability, more volatility, more turbulence.
01:40Argentina, these days, has decoupled a little from what happened in the region.
01:43So there is an impact.
01:45The government tries to minimize it from the Central Bank and some official bodies.
01:50And in that sense, I would say that they have achieved it.
01:52Then there is a political impact, which comes, on the one hand, if you are more media, levels of approval, levels of confidence.
02:01And there is probably a damage to the reputation.
02:03And then there is the whole judicial, legal channel, with an uncertain outcome.
02:08And there are unknowns.
02:09So the question is, within the framework of any investigations that are already running in Argentina and abroad.
02:16How far can that go?
02:18And there are questions that can eventually hit the economy.
02:22But that outcome is still very uncertain.
02:24It is very imminent and very uncertain.
02:26Did the Central Bank have to intervene a lot this week?
02:28Yes, it is estimated that yes.
02:30There are no official numbers.
02:32In December, more or less 300 million dollars had intervened to intervene in the exchange market.
02:36And in January, there are no official data.
02:38But I estimate that it was in the area of 800, practically.
02:41And as far as February goes, I think it goes more than 1000.
02:43So clearly, there is a lot of pressure there on the exchange front.
02:46This week, an important fact was known, which was the commercial balance, which increased imports by 25%.
02:52What are you seeing in the reserves, in the accumulation of dollars?
02:57Well, the economic program, this is a good point because there is a lot of discussion around the exchange scheme and others.
03:03Let's say, it is important to put it on the table.
03:06A table has four legs.
03:08The first is the fiscal.
03:10And that leg is very firm.
03:12This is fundamental.
03:14Because we are discussing inflation of 2% per month.
03:16A year ago, in January of last year, it was 20%.
03:18In December, it was 25%.
03:20And this is mainly explained by the great work they are doing in fiscal matters.
03:24Then, the second leg has to do with, if you want, financial normalization.
03:29And the best reflection of that is the country's risk.
03:31Assume in 2000, it goes down to 1100.
03:33It has a downturn in May, June of last year, when the base value did not go up.
03:38It went down to 1600.
03:40It ends the year at 600.
03:42Today it is at 700.
03:44But well, from 2000 to 700 there is a huge advance.
03:46You have to get to 300, 400.
03:48And the third leg is the monetary exchange.
03:50And that is where the exchange scheme begins to show, I say, for several months now, asphyxia symptoms.
03:58Where do you see the asphyxia symptoms?
03:59Not only in the intervention of the gap, but what is happening with the possibility that this economy generates dollars.
04:05That is why, look at the international reserves.
04:08This leg is the one in charge of fixing the central bank.
04:11The balance of the central bank, which was broken.
04:13Why was it broken?
04:15Because, well, there were no dollars in the asset.
04:17The net reserves were less than 11,500.
04:20And there were many pesos in the passive, emitting more pesos.
04:23A very important job was done there.
04:25But today the reserves are still in the area of -4,500.
04:29And if we discount the payments that have to be made with the exchange, they are even less.
04:32So, from minus 11,500 to minus 4,500, a lot has advanced, but something is still missing.
04:37In that something is missing, that is the stock, the flow begins to appear.
04:42I mean, to simplify, the economy, when it comes to generating dollars, has like two big highways.
04:49It's like saying, we take access to the West and to the Americas.
04:51They enter and leave in cars.
04:53And in capital, it is filled with cars or emptied of cars.
04:55In the economy, there are two highways of dollars.
04:58If a lot of dollars enter, it is filled with dollars, etc.
05:00The current account, let's call it access to the West,
05:03which is the genuine generation capacity of dollars.
05:07There are exports, there is the dead cow boom, there is the service account, etc.
05:11But there they enter and leave in dollars.
05:13The problem is that the commercial balance is super-additory,
05:16but that super-additory begins to be lost.
05:17And that is what you are asking,
05:19which coexists with a deficit balance of services,
05:23which is aggravated by tourism, by the fleets, by the cards, etc.
05:26And also with all the payment of interests and utilities, which in part is sepia.
05:30So, this highway number one, for six, seven, eight months,
05:35stopped giving you dollars.
05:37And if in this dynamic we see that the commercial balance
05:40leaves you less and less,
05:42and in the future the Argentines will come out more,
05:44and the payments with cards are growing,
05:45and Argentina has to pay more interests,
05:48this highway no longer generates dollars.
05:51When this highway stopped generating dollars,
05:54the Central Bank, in the middle of last year,
05:56stopped accumulating reserves.
05:58That's where the reserve recomposition ended.
06:00So, the program begins to live from the second highway,
06:03from the financial account.
06:05In that financial account,
06:07the first big lane that worked was the whiting.
06:10The Argentines, in September, October, November,
06:12the Monetary Fund lent Argentina 47 billion dollars.
06:16The Argentines went to the mattresses in two months,
06:19they took out 20 billion dollars,
06:21and today the program is living from that.
06:25A part goes to the Central Bank,
06:27a part is left to the banks,
06:29another part is lent to companies,
06:31companies lend it, sell it in the exchange market
06:33if the Central Bank accumulates it.
06:35And that's where, well, if the whiting starts to run out,
06:38the negotiation with the Fund begins to be fundamental.
06:39So, to sum up,
06:41it's clearly not a good sign
06:44that exports don't have that dynamism anymore
06:47and imports start to grow at the rate of the recovery,
06:49a kind of change that was left in a low area.
06:52I said in my law two weeks ago here,
06:55also talking about this issue,
06:57that among the temporary low of the retentions,
07:01I think they estimated between 4 or 5 billion dollars.
07:06But then they keep insisting
07:07on what is the energy issue,
07:09dead cow, lithium, etc.
07:11Or mining.
07:13You, what you are proposing,
07:15you are not seeing export income
07:17increase in those sectors.
07:19I am seeing it,
07:21but we are going to nuance it and put it in perspective.
07:25The reduction of retentions,
07:27what it can generate is an anticipation
07:29in the liquidation of the dollars.
07:31It doesn't invent new dollars.
07:33We already saw this with the doughnut dollars,
07:34we even discussed it here.
07:36The harvest is X amount of tons per price.
07:39Then, if there is a retention
07:41and when it is liquid, it is another game.
07:43But the annual account is not going to change.
07:45First point.
07:47Second point, the energy balance last year
07:49was 5.6 billion superavit.
07:51We came from almost equilibrium,
07:53from a phenomenal red in 2022,
07:55almost historical maximums,
07:57this year it will be historical maximums,
07:59it will exceed 7,000
08:01and next year it will exceed 10,000.
08:03That growth
08:05that allows you this development
08:07of the production of oil and gas
08:09and that starts to generate more dollars,
08:11is insufficient to compensate
08:13what the economic recovery demands
08:15in a context of low exchange rate
08:17where the elasticity of imports
08:19or the Argentines going abroad
08:21are going to demand you.
08:23So, that boom is there
08:25and it is compensated,
08:27but we have a problem.
08:29The economy is also going to need more dollars
08:30and what it is going to need
08:32is more than what that boom can generate.
08:34To grow 4 or 5%
08:36you need a lot of imports.
08:38And if we are talking about 5,600
08:40we went to 7,000 and more,
08:42let's suppose we add 2,500 more
08:44of oil and gas this year.
08:46But the monetary fund does not serve
08:48in that context,
08:50because it is also temporary with that criterion.
08:52Indeed.
08:54But here you have to think
08:56in the following way.
08:58Let's suppose, well,
09:00we have a bridge over the bridge.
09:02To get to where is the question?
09:04That tomorrow we have to go back,
09:06make some movement,
09:08go to the service, reprogram, etc.
09:10The program has three processes
09:12that are running simultaneously.
09:14It's like a race with three levels.
09:16The first process you had
09:18is an economy exploiting inflation,
09:20spiraling,
09:22but there appears the stabilization program
09:24and there are the four legs that I mentioned to you
09:26where the fourth was missing,
09:28which is all the correction of relative prices.
09:30This is a dynamic in which
09:32inflation goes down.
09:3425 ended in 2.12
09:36and that determines a change scheme
09:38and a level of the exchange rate,
09:40which is what is under tension today.
09:42Why?
09:44Because that was a certain speed
09:46and the program perhaps released more inflation
09:48than the crawling of 2 could hold.
09:50This combined with a world that became complicated,
09:52the real went from 5 to 6 in a year.
09:54Well, then that's a process.
09:56The second process
09:58is the whole battery of structural reforms.
10:00Pro-growth,
10:02pro-competitiveness and pro-investment.
10:04Why is this important?
10:06Because Argentina did not grow 12 years ago.
10:08I have to unlock the engines of economic growth
10:10and get the Argentinean cost
10:12from the prices.
10:14Now, this second process is slow.
10:16It is a slow process
10:18that can last 3, 4, 5 years.
10:20To accommodate the prices.
10:22No, to go through the structural reforms
10:24to have a competitive Argentina.
10:26Taxes.
10:28Today Argentina has more or less taxes.
10:30It is a good country,
10:32but the provinces are raising the income rate,
10:34the municipalities,
10:36the labor reform,
10:38the Argentinean logistic cost,
10:40the cost of finance.
10:42So this race is slow
10:44and the third process is
10:46you had an economy
10:48and a country isolated from the world
10:50you have to integrate it
10:52and there is the economic opening.
10:54If the stabilization is fast,
10:56the economic opening is fast,
10:58but the reforms are slow,
11:00I have to lower the price.
11:02And there is the tension.
11:04But, if this process goes fast,
11:06all this recorded, I insist,
11:08by a world that did not accompany.
11:10Because today Argentina has a headwind.
11:12Let's say, the external context
11:14is not helping this Argentina.
11:16We have lost many dollars.
11:18Now, if this process
11:20could go much faster
11:22and this slower,
11:24at the point of arrival,
11:26you have an exchange scheme
11:28that you can sustain over time.
11:30You can have an economic scheme
11:32and you can sustain it.
11:34Now, there is the tension.
11:36Why? We have elections,
11:38the world does not help,
11:40the exchange box is already tense.
11:42And we still have a central bank
11:44that although it has advanced
11:46a lot in terms of fixing it,
11:48it is still missing.
11:51It seems very clear
11:53everything you are raising.
11:55What I do not know
11:57is if
11:58the monetary fund,
12:00the temporal of the monetary fund
12:02is enough for you
12:04for the structural reform
12:06of the economy
12:08to balance the issue of dollars.
12:10When we,
12:12in the middle of last year,
12:14we saw that the current account,
12:16the US highway,
12:18was already affixed by the exchange scheme
12:20and the economic recovery,
12:22we said, the program begins
12:24to be CEPO dependent
12:26and financial account dependent.
12:28And now the planets
12:30have to align
12:32to jump from one to the other.
12:34The first great planet
12:36that aligned was the whitewash
12:38that exceeded all expectations
12:40of anyone.
12:42On that came the repo of the banks,
12:44now the negotiation with the fund.
12:46The negotiation with the fund
12:48is a bridge and a key simultaneously
12:50to have the market again.
12:52Why?
12:54Because in that financial account,
12:56the highway 2,
12:58the bank opens the door
13:00and they give me credit,
13:02a personal loan, a card.
13:04So, the agreement with the fund,
13:06if it fulfills that purpose,
13:08in addition to being a key,
13:10the country's risk goes to 350 points,
13:12400 points,
13:14and Argentina no longer has the problem,
13:16because Argentina is affixed
13:18by two phenomena,
13:20because it has no credit
13:22and because the central bank is still in red.
13:24So now,
13:26if I get an agreement with the fund
13:28and I close the market,
13:30well, the bridge is no longer a bridge,
13:32I already touched solid ground.
13:34With which the agreement with the fund
13:36becomes the great sign
13:38that the economy and the market require.
13:40In the short term, without a doubt.
13:42Can you imagine the agreement
13:44at the end of March?
13:46I don't know if at the end of March,
13:48but I think between March and April
13:50it should be.
13:52I don't know the timing,
13:54I think in the short term it should be.
13:56It shouldn't be a difficult agreement
13:58because it is true that the fund
14:00is seeing that this leg 3,
14:02the monetary exchange regime,
14:04must continue to work on it.
14:06There are things that deserve
14:08some kind of modification,
14:10call it BLEN, change restrictions,
14:12the type of change, the scheme, etc.
14:14The fund is seeing the same thing.
14:16So what I imagine is, of course,
14:18the fund says, ah, stop,
14:20the current account does not generate dollars,
14:22let's go for the financial account,
14:24I'm going to put dollars in the financial account
14:26so that the Argentines go to party
14:28because it is not fuel for inflation.
14:30Well, indeed.
14:32They hack the stabilization process.
14:34In an election year it is...
14:36But they are not going to devalue it, forget it.
14:38Indeed.
14:40In an election year it is unfeasible.
14:42But the fund can say, well,
14:44let's do the following,
14:46let's make a transition scheme.
14:48What you don't ask me is 15 billion dollars
14:50of free availability to return
14:52the Caipirinhas to the Argentines in Brazil.
14:54This year you have to pay me
14:563,800 million dollars.
14:58We have to continue working
15:00with the tax program,
15:02with the financial enumeration,
15:04let that help,
15:06and we do a phase 2 of the program
15:08maybe at the end of the year,
15:10after the elections.
15:12Because the fund also understands
15:14the political limitation
15:16that elections generate.
15:18Esteban, thank you very much.
15:20Please, a pleasure.
15:22Very attentive. Have a good weekend.