En un detallado análisis económico, se discute la situación de Argentina en un año electoral. Se abordan temas como la posible devaluación, la inflación y el acuerdo pendiente con el Fondo Monetario Internacional. Se cuestiona la estrategia del gobierno para mantener el tipo de cambio y se plantean dudas sobre por qué aún no se ha llegado a un nuevo acuerdo con el FMI a pesar del superávit fiscal sostenido.
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00:00I don't think it's a discussion at the moment for me, because devaluation...
00:06Another one that makes me cry. Another one that throws me out.
00:09No, but you know why? Because how does a devaluation in Argentina end in an election year?
00:15Terrible.
00:16Bad. I mean, that's the issue. If you devalue now, six or eight months from elections,
00:21on top of this bad news from the United States that does not accompany,
00:24we all know that in Argentina the problem was never solved, let's say, with devaluations.
00:29I do think it's important that the Central Bank, in part, is using to keep the account with liquidation
00:36around 1,200 pesos. The last few days it didn't intervene, but I wouldn't touch that.
00:42And there it seems to me that it is a decision that I, unlike what the government is doing...
00:47In other words, you say, I wouldn't use reserves to keep the dollar at 1,200.
00:51Of course, when they want to intervene to keep it and keep this gap so low,
00:55I would see what happens, that the gap is run to 10, 15, 20, 30 percent.
01:00Let's see, the dollar was worth 1,300 pesos a year and a half ago in Argentina,
01:04and in the meantime there was a lot of inflation, so it wouldn't be to be alarmed either.
01:09Because here the central issue is that our Central Bank can sustainably accumulate reserves.
01:15If Argentina continues to accumulate reserves sustainably, if we continue with this tax override
01:21and we continue with this, let's say, energy policy and commercial policy that is helping,
01:26the climate is helping, and at the energy level Argentina will generate a huge surplus of dollars this year.
01:33I think that the adverse conditions that we can have at the external level,
01:37as can happen in the United States, will not have as much repercussion in our country,
01:41because we are definitely doing what needs to be done to order Argentina's macro.
01:46Now, Alfredo, Caputo, and we put it in the graph, he went out to lower the pressure,
01:50he went out to say that this is not like that, the president also, that there is no problem with the dollar,
01:55but in the middle of this you have claims from all sectors, or from many sectors,
02:00in the middle of this you have statements in the United States, another one that I assume now,
02:04Trump said again today that Argentina is not out of the swing,
02:08that is, there are sectors that are going to say, in addition to us telling you that the dollar is delayed,
02:14to export to the United States we are going to have more problems, because they are putting us on the hook,
02:18and in the middle what you also have is what you say, although inflation is lower,
02:23you are not navigating at 20% per month, as we were in 1995, as we were in December 2023,
02:28you have a 2% per month, 1.5% if things go well, and this is going to be like this until October,
02:35and here, sorry, the question was very long, how do we get to October in this situation?
02:39Because this, the government politically gives the feeling that it does not want to change it.
02:44Yes, let's see, if the economy continues to order and grows at the rate that is being stipulated
02:50in most serious organizations, that Argentina grows around 4.5%-5%,
02:56again, it seems to me that there are sectors that can suffer more, with a more appreciated exchange rate,
03:01especially because of this shock of relative prices of what the dollar is worth in such a short time,
03:07because that is the problem in Argentina, the discussion comes from there,
03:10many businessmen tell you, hey, but I paid a dollar of 1,400, the dollar is worth a thousand,
03:15and this happened in six months in our country, it is not that we have been five years.
03:18So, speed is the big problem, not so much the value,
03:22they ask me a lot, how much is the value of the exchange rate?
03:26Release, it is impossible, and the one that puts you a reference price today ...
03:30But do you dare to think, sorry to interrupt you, Alfredo, do you dare to think if you release where it goes?
03:35Let's see, again, I don't know because there are many conditions,
03:38Luis, for example, this news now from the FED is bad,
03:41if it had been the other way around, that can generate, let's say, the dollar, on the contrary, it puts less pressure on you.
03:47I ask you clumsily, you are already used to me, to my economic bullshit,
03:52I tell you, because you start to hear noises, right?
03:55I mean, from Cavallo to Alvarez Sánchez, it is already late, you have to correct, you have to devalue,
04:01then, well, the issue of the reserves moves a little,
04:06is there any reason to think that we are in a moment of crisis of the economic plan?
04:11No, I think it is important that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund
04:16is given even sooner than what it is to be talking about this first quarter,
04:22I think that would be an important sign, because a lot of the discussion,
04:27despite the fact that both Caputo and Millet have come out to deny that it is not an exchange issue,
04:32in the discussion of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund,
04:35there is a doubt, that is, then, why Argentina, after 14 months of maintaining a fiscal surplus,
04:41and the International Monetary Fund, which always preaches the fiscal issue as a central issue in its programs,
04:47why doesn't Argentina already have a new agreement, and had to pay 600 million dollars very recently?
04:53So, for me it is a central issue that there is a quick agreement with the Fund,
04:57that this can remove a little of this stress, let's say,
05:00regarding whether the exchange rate has to be devalued or not.
05:03I do not agree with what Cavallo said,
05:06with Álvaro Álvarez, less, because I do not agree with his economic vision for a long time,
05:12and I think that in the last year and a half, the only thing he did was to make a mistake.
05:16But what I don't think, from the vision again, and I want to return to this central issue,
05:23Luis, devaluation in Argentina never brings good results,
05:28so devaluation for what?
05:30To put it at 1,200, the prices have to be accelerated?
05:32A very short question.
05:33It was 2.3, January inflation, I don't remember,
05:362.3, I'm saying it right, if not, correct me.
05:382.3
05:39Don't look at me with that face.
05:402.3, 2.3
05:41Thank you, Clara, for coming here.
05:43Do you see a...
05:452.7 was December, now we have to wait for January, it is projected that it will be 2.3.
05:49Do you see that it is going in a downward curve, or do you think that inflation can make a noise?
05:54No, inflation will continue this course, and above all, if the subject of exchange rates continues to be anchored.
05:59If you don't have a big surge, and especially the official exchange rate, which now corrects the monthly 1,
06:04that is, it is practically nothing, I don't think that that generates problems.
06:09Here the problem is to accumulate dollars, and the issue is, there I do not agree,
06:14I say it again, not to intervene in the accounting with liquidation,
06:17keep accumulating reserves, that is a central issue.
06:20Let it move, if it goes to 1,300 and something, then it returns to 1,200, it is a market issue.
06:26Good.
06:27Pleasure to have you here.
06:28Thank you, Luis.
06:29Thank you for being with us.