Saksikan Program Economic Outlook 2025 (23/01/2025) dengan tema pembahasan "Industri Pertambangan di Tengah Tekanan Geopolitik dan Geoekonomi Global".
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00:00Hi, I'm Prasetyo Wibowo, from IDX Channel Jakarta, and welcome to IDX Economic Outlook 2025.
00:28You can watch our live streaming at idxchannel.com, and let's follow IDX Economic Outlook 2025.
00:47The national mining industry is still facing internal and external challenges, such as geopolitical conflicts and global geoeconomy.
00:57For that, the government must be able to create and formulate more comprehensive policies to boost business and investment in the mining sector.
01:06In 2025, the mining industry in the water is expected to still face a number of challenges, both internal and external.
01:21From the internal, the national mining industry will be faced with regulations, extreme weather, and social conditions for society.
01:31From the external, the challenges will still be faced by the global geopolitical conflict, which has not yet shown signs of subsidence and continued potential.
01:41Despite the ongoing Middle East peace process between Palestine and Israel, geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the South China Sea are still on the rise.
01:53These conditions are also concerned that will affect the production and export energy of the Indonesian mining industry throughout 2025.
02:03Meanwhile, the public and national mining industry players are now waiting for a number of policies from major world economies, which are believed to have an impact on the global situation, including the energy sector.
02:16These policies include the US government's policy on the development of an electric-based vehicle that will be involved in the nickel supply as a supporter of the battery industry as an energy source for electricity generation.
02:31On the other hand, mining companies in the water are also urged to further advance the implementation of hillarization or increase the value of mining materials produced such as coal, nickel, tin, bauxite, and copper.
02:46Meanwhile, the government needs to consider and continue the comprehensive and proven policy of maintaining the conservation of minerals and profitability of business players.
02:57IDX Channel coverage team
03:00IDX Channel
03:30Thank you for your time, Mr. Komendy. How are you?
03:33I'm fine, thank you.
03:35Thank you for your time. Speaking of the mining sector, as we know, the fluctuation is quite fast in 2024.
03:42Mr. Hendrem, can you tell us a little bit about your review of the conditions of our mining industry, both in terms of minerals and coal mining, what was it like last year?
03:52And maybe you see this as a positive thing.
03:56Well, in general, I think our mining sector can be said to be quite good.
04:03If we compare it to a few years ago, for example, five years ago, where the price of minerals and commodities was very low.
04:12If we compare it now, it's still quite good.
04:15But if we compare it to 2023 or even 2022, of course there will be a decline.
04:20So in 2024, compared to 2023 and 2022, the average is lower.
04:28But overall, it can be said to be quite positive.
04:31Looking at all the good communities, nickel, if we look at the price movement this year, it's lower, maybe because of oversupply.
04:40Then tin can be said to be stable.
04:44Copper is also volatile, but still stable.
04:47Coal is also down, but still at a positive level.
04:51So if we look at how many of those commodities, in general, if the energy is determined by the price of commodities, it can be said to be quite positive.
05:00And also looking at the production in 2024, the energy, if we look at the level of production, can be said to be generally positive.
05:10Wow, that's it. So in general, in 2024, the energy sector of the coal mining sector is quite good.
05:17As we can see, our coal production is already more targeted.
05:21Yes, and also the contribution to the acceptance of the country is still good.
05:24Okay, so from the Reform Iron Institute, how do you see this?
05:28Do you see any challenges from a global or domestic point of view?
05:35Yes, the main challenge from the domestic point of view, I think it's in the hillarization.
05:39The main one is there, there is a mandatory, it must be processed in the country, while the domestic market is actually not ready yet.
05:46So, for example, if the coal is asked for processing here, but when it's done, it's not ready to absorb everything.
05:55So it means it will be sold again.
05:58Meanwhile, investment in smelters, I think it's not really interesting, if it's not mandatory from the government.
06:07So the additional value is informed, if it's in minerals, it's generally compared to being sold in concentrates,
06:14versus if it's processed through nickel, it's maybe around 5% value added, average.
06:20Meanwhile, the need for investment beyond that, it means more loss actually.
06:25They will be more profitable if sold in concentrates.
06:29If from the perspective of business owners, of course they will choose, if there is no mandatory, they will definitely not implement it.
06:36In this context, what is actually important is us, in the sense of the Indonesian people.
06:41It means that if we want to have additional value, the consumer industry should be prepared.
06:47So in the past, selling paddy or wheat, now it's only limited to selling rice.
06:53It means from processing in smelters or paddy slabs, then it becomes rice, that's what is sold.
06:59Hopefully, when this hillarization policy is implemented, it won't stop at rice.
07:04Maybe there will be light food, rice, and so on, derived from paddy products themselves.
07:11Now, because the industry is not yet there, automatically, whether you want it or not, it must be sold as a limit of rice.
07:17Because the industry must thrive.
07:19If not sold, the cost will be high for our employees.
07:23What does it mean? The state's receipt doesn't work, the tax receipt doesn't work, if this fixture stops in the warehouse.
07:29So, whether you want it or not, it must be sold as a limit of rice.
07:33Okay, that's the end of the hillarization, which is still a game changer for the mining sector.
07:37Now, if we talk about the geopolitical conflict, which also affects the global economy, Mr. Hendra.
07:44What do you feel as the head of the Indonesian Mining Association?
07:49Is there a decrease in demand, or not at all, or is there a different request from the quality side, or what?
07:58Yes, the geopolitical dynamics, of course, we can see it from two sides.
08:02The positive side, or the negative side, from the perspective of Indonesia, especially businessmen.
08:06If we look at the last two or three years, there has been a conflict in Russia, Ukraine, and also in the Middle East.
08:14If we look at it, the conflict in Ukraine is precisely the positive side that we get.
08:18Because of the limitation of the troops to Europe, whether they want it or not, Europe also took the coal from us.
08:24We have a positive sentiment towards the coal community, which at that time Indonesia did an export ban.
08:30So the price went up, then after we did the export ban, Russia invaded Ukraine, the price skyrocketed.
08:37So we got the positive impact.
08:40But of course, the negative impact is also from logistics, there is a difficulty.
08:44Logistics is also a bit expensive, but of course, if it is offset, there will be more positive impact.
08:50So, yes, we see it, but we don't expect a conflict, of course.
08:54Yes, we have to manage the conflict, of course.
08:57And Indonesia's position, which also follows the principle of free and active politics, benefits us.
09:05Wow, this is interesting.
09:07Mr. Komedia, what do you think, if the geopolitical conflict is related to the geoeconomy?
09:12Because the pressure on the global economy is also happening due to the widespread geopolitical conflict.
09:18That's right. It means there are two sides, Mr. Pres.
09:20So, in the conflict itself, they need mining results.
09:25So, for example, for the war, for their logistics, they need energy and non-energy.
09:30In the mineral, they need it to make weapons of war, vehicles, and so on.
09:36Of course, we don't expect it to be generated from the conflict.
09:39But if you ask what the impact of the conflict is for us, it is far more beneficial in the context of trade.
09:47Of course, we don't expect that.
09:48But when the relative condition of the conflict is reduced, it is expected that there will be growth generated from other places.
09:57So, in any situation, the mining industry is always needed.
10:03In a crisis situation, they also need it.
10:06In a positive growth situation, they also need it.
10:10The market is always open to any global conditions.
10:13This is interesting. So, what will happen if we look at the conditions of the sectors or mining communities that are still needed by the global community?
10:22We will discuss it in the next segment.
10:24Mr. Indra, Mr. Komedi, we will take a short break.
10:26And, Mr. Mirsa, we will be right back after this.
10:42Thank you for staying with us.
10:44In the next segment, we will provide you with a number of data related to the condition of the mining sector, especially coal.
10:51You can watch it on your television screen.
10:54First, let's see how the realization of coal production, which is still an Indonesian asset to export and support the acceptance of the country.
11:04We also see that the trend continues to rise.
11:05It was recorded in 2024 as 831.53 million tons.
11:10So, the trend continues to rise.
11:12Even this has exceeded the target of our State Budget in 2024.
11:19Next, we will see how the domestic coal supply for the domestic market is.
11:27This is not much different from the domestic coal supply in Indonesia.
11:32This is not much different from the growing production.
11:37It was recorded in 2024 as 379.91 million tons.
11:43This is the range between 2020 and 2024.
11:48Next, how about the DMO?
11:51Our Domestic Market Obligation.
11:53Our Domestic Market Obligation in 2024 was 209.93 million tons.
11:58There is a slight decline compared to 2023 at 212.86 million tons.
12:04And this is also the trend.
12:06It seems to have dropped in the last three years.
12:08In 2022, it was 215.81 million tons for the absorption of coal related to the DMO.
12:18And how about the realization of our coal export?
12:21In 2024 and 2020, the trend continues to rise for the coal community.
12:30It was 435.36 million tons for Indonesia's coal export volume.
12:37This is higher than in 2023 at 406.67 million tons.
12:42Let's continue our discussion with our guests in the studio.
12:45Mr. Hendra Sinadia, General Secretary of the Indonesian Coal Association.
12:49And Mr. Komaedi Notonegoro, Director Executive of Free For Miner Institute.
12:54Mr. Hendra, according to the data,
12:57we are talking about our advantage in terms of coal mining.
13:03Is coal still the main source of income?
13:07If we look at it, the trend continues to rise.
13:09Production, export, and also the absorption in the country.
13:12Yes, coal is still the main source of income.
13:14And the latest data from the International Energy Agency in 2024 also confirms that.
13:20The global use of coal continues to increase.
13:25Although the growth rate of coal use globally in 2024 is lower than in 2022 and 2023.
13:34But in general, it continues to increase.
13:36So, it also confirms that our production is also increasing.
13:41The demand from China is also surprisingly good last year.
13:46And it continues to increase.
13:48What worries me is that this will be a peak for some observers.
13:54But overall, the demand is still high.
13:57Mr. Hendra, there was a decline in DMO.
14:00Why is that?
14:02I think it depends on the PLN.
14:05Maybe this year their stockpile.
14:08I think the PLN's stockpile in 2024 is quite high.
14:12Because in 2023, the absorption of coal consumption from the PLN is quite high.
14:18Their stockpile in 2023.
14:20So in 2024, it will be lower.
14:22But the use of electricity itself, the consumption of electricity continues to increase.
14:26This can later confirm that our electricity consumption in 2024 continues to increase.
14:32It also increases the need for the PLN.
14:34But for the DMO, because their stockpile is quite high in 2023,
14:38so in 2024, their consumption will not be too high.
14:41Okay.
14:43The coal community, Mr. Komaydi.
14:45Do you think this is still a primordial stage?
14:47Are the parties evenly distributed?
14:50If we look at other communities, there are Bukosih, Timah, Tembaga, etc.
14:54If we talk about hillarization, it has entered other communities.
14:58Yes, if you look at the indication of the acceptance of the country,
15:02the contribution of coal is the biggest.
15:04In the general mining group, there are minerals and coal.
15:09But if we talk about the potential,
15:12if we talk about hillarization, the potential is the added value.
15:15The expectation will be much greater.
15:17Meanwhile, the hillarization of coal until today,
15:20the picture is not quite clear yet, Mr. Enda.
15:22So if we talk about 5-10 years in the future, it can be different.
15:26But now, the tool is the contribution to the acceptance of the country.
15:30This is the biggest coal.
15:32If we look at the global trend, I think the data has been confirmed.
15:36At the moment, in 2025, the consumption is almost 9 billion tons.
15:41Meanwhile, in China or China, the consumption is about 55% of the 9 billion tons.
15:47We produced 8 billion tons, so it's quite big.
15:50So it means that the global portion is one of the main players there.
15:54So if the price is still good,
15:55some analysts say that the peak is in 2027 or 2029 for coal.
16:03So it means that in the future, we can still enjoy it.
16:07Especially now with America declaring to return to fossil fuels,
16:12there is still a longer expectation.
16:15Interesting.
16:17For entrepreneurs, what do you think?
16:19If we look at the energy policy in the United States,
16:22returning to fossil fuels,
16:23even though still trying to get into clean energy, right?
16:28Yes, of course, this is an uncertain aspect in general.
16:31Because there are many fossil fuel companies that have invested in clean energy.
16:37Not only in MIGAS, but also in global coal.
16:42Big companies have invested in clean energy ecosystem.
16:47Of course, this is a calculation.
16:48But on the other hand, what was done by the new president in America
16:54who signed the executive order to withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty,
16:59this at least gives a positive sentiment.
17:02The sentiment is positive that fossil fuels, especially coal,
17:08still have a prospect, at least the sentiment.
17:12Mr. Gomaydi, what about if we talk about hillarization?
17:16We have always associated it as a game changer in Indonesia.
17:21Meanwhile, there is another new dynamic, right?
17:24We have been saying for a long time that EBT can't be a substitution,
17:31but a complementary.
17:33It means that until 2050-2060, even at the global level,
17:38the portion of fossil fuels is still quite significant.
17:41It means that it runs in parallel, complementing each other.
17:44What was stated in the Paris Agreement and the international agreement
17:50is actually the reduction of emissions, not replacing the type of energy.
17:54What is worrying is when there is a technology that can clean emissions
18:00from fossil products, the problem will actually be solved.
18:03Because of that, the business must run.
18:06On average, American-based companies run in parallel.
18:10They also invest in EBT, but the fossil fuels still run.
18:15And the portion is maybe 60-40.
18:18But for European-based companies, it's quite the opposite.
18:2170% in EBT, 30% in fossil fuels.
18:24Meanwhile, the market is quite different now.
18:27I think what Mr. Hendray said is that they have to recalculate the IRR.
18:32So what is their internal rate of return with this new policy?
18:37What is the future of mineral and coal mining?
18:41We will discuss it in the next segment.
18:43Mr. Mirsa, make sure you are still with us.
18:45Thank you for joining us on IDX Channel Economy Outlook 2025.
19:08Next, we will share with you some data related to the export value of Indonesian hylurization products.
19:16As you can see, from 2020 to 2024, the projection is to reach US$40 billion for nickel products or commodities.
19:29The hylurization continues to grow significantly.
19:32It will become a successful pilot project and a barometer for the hylurization of other mining commodities.
19:41What about nickel reserves?
19:44Let's look at Indonesia's position compared to other countries.
19:48We are in second place.
19:50Australia is also in 21 million tons for nickel reserves in a number of countries.
19:55There are Brazil, Russia, New Caledonia, the Philippines, Canada, China, and the United States.
20:02Next, let's talk about the smelter.
20:06The investment value in 2024 is the smelter of PT Aman Mineral International Tbk in Sumbawa, West NTB, which reached US$21 trillion.
20:17The smelter of PT Freeport Indonesia in Gresik, East Java, reached US$56 trillion.
20:22The smelter of PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia in Mempawah, West Kalimantan, reached US$16 trillion.
20:35Next, let's talk about the requirements of the IUPK.
20:41What are these requirements?
20:43The IUPK must have a processing facility or integrated purification in the country.
20:47The IUPK must have a supply of reserves to meet the operational needs of the processing facility or smelter.
20:53The IUPK must have at least 51% of the shareholding of the smelter by Indonesian participants.
20:58The IUPK must also have a new shareholding agreement that must not be diluted by at least 10% of the total shareholding of the smelter to BUMN.
21:09Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Hendra Sinadia, General Director of the Indonesian Mining Association and Mr. Komaydi Notonegoro, Director Executive of Reforminer Institute.
21:20Let's talk about the hillarization.
21:22Mr. Hendra, as a businessman, what is the real condition of the field when you see it?
21:28Is it in accordance with the government's target?
21:32Is the businessman himself a bit out of control?
21:35Yes, from the perspective of a businessman, they have fulfilled their obligations.
21:42It is stipulated by the law to build a purification processing facility in the country.
21:46That is what is required by the law.
21:49Then, the product is absorbed by domestic or foreign.
21:54As Mr. Komaydi said, the domestic absorption is very minimal.
22:00So, it is a joint effort, not a businessman's effort.
22:05It is a joint effort to build a domestic industry that absorbs domestic products.
22:12Here, of course, it is the role of the government to promote industrialization based on natural resources.
22:20Don't forget the hillarization.
22:24The hillarization of the Ministry of Domestic Affairs is basically an integrated part of mining activities.
22:32We sometimes forget about mining.
22:35Here, if we look at some commodities, as Mr. Komaydi said,
22:40the value of mining, the absorption of labor, the investment is not less in mining.
22:47If we look at the downstream, the added value produced from the product is high,
22:54but the absorption of labor is relatively low compared to the former.
23:00The continuation of the purification processing industry or smelter is very dependent on the continuation of the former.
23:08So, it is not less important that the government's focus is on the former.
23:13In other words, exploration is the biggest challenge.
23:17Because we are talking about a smelter project that can last for 20, 30, 40 years.
23:24Can our reserves be enough for the future?
23:30So, the challenge is in the former or the mining that needs support.
23:34This is a big question related to the continuation,
23:37because we are talking about the hillarization sector,
23:41the development of the smelter with not a small amount of funds.
23:44Mr. Komaydi, what do you think?
23:46If we look at the integration of the former to the hillarization, is it on track?
23:51Or are you worried about something else?
23:55Yes, if we look at the data that was presented earlier,
23:58from a certain year to recent years, the export has increased significantly.
24:04It means that what is processed in the smelter is exported, not domestically.
24:11The data confirms that the domestic ecosystem is not ready yet.
24:16What is worrisome is that if the domestic is not ready, while the market is still outside.
24:23So, the hope of the government is that we do not export the nickel that has been processed, but the export of batteries.
24:30The export of electricity products, or the export of other manufacturing products.
24:36That is what is expected, so that there is absorption of labor.
24:40From the three smelters, the value is around 85-90 trillion.
24:45It will be generated when the smelter construction is operational.
24:49But when the smelter is finished, there is a significant decrease in absorption of labor.
24:56For example, the smelter in Gresik has a report.
25:00When it is under construction, thousands of workers are needed.
25:03But when it is operational, there are only hundreds of workers.
25:07From thousands of workers, there is also a problem there.
25:10To generate additional value in the early stages,
25:13I discussed this with my friends in the Gresik government.
25:17Because there is a threat of that problem.
25:19Meanwhile, when they have been absorbed there, there is an expectation to remain as employees.
25:24Meanwhile, only hundreds of workers are needed.
25:27There is a social conflict that they are facing at the moment.
25:31If it is absorbed by domestic workers,
25:34the labor can still be distributed to other industries.
25:37But because it is sold abroad, the chain is automatically cut off there.
25:43When the project is finished, they automatically finish working on the project.
25:48The expectation is that they are involved in a longer process.
25:53Api, what do you think about the absorption of labor?
25:58The increase in the value of raw materials in mining has already existed in several commodities.
26:05There are nickel, tobacco, etc.
26:08What do you think about it?
26:11Is it true that there is no industry that absorbs additional products?
26:17Not yet.
26:18Yes, there is.
26:20There are 1 or 2 factories in Tembaga that build factories near Freeport.
26:25Such initiatives are needed.
26:29Especially for domestic workers.
26:32Because the support from domestic banks is also very needed for our industry to grow.
26:38So, it's more to our domestic.
26:41If the mining business itself, with the existence of smelter, it's already there.
26:45But again, I'm more interested in the future, especially in exploration.
26:51Because Mr. Komeda also talked about the creation of jobs.
26:56If in mining there is a new reserve found from exploration, it will be a big investment.
27:03And the number of workers needed is also thousands.
27:06And it continues for a long time.
27:09In Freeport, the total number of workers and contractors is maybe 30,000.
27:13But if the smelter is combined with PT Smelting, maybe less than 1,000.
27:20And in other industries, other commodities are also like that.
27:24The HULU sector itself, with its focus on hillarization.
27:28Do you think Mr. Komeda is quite left behind?
27:31If it turns out that the employment that is expected from the government with hillarization,
27:36actually the potential is in HULU.
27:39What do you think about this?
27:40Yes, maybe the attention is less balanced.
27:43So now the focus is on the rice smelting industry.
27:48So we prepare a lot of rice, but then forget how to prepare the agricultural land.
27:55Even though if there is no agricultural land, then the investment in rice smelting will not be a maximum recovery.
28:03As soon as there is no HULU team, it's over.
28:06Actually, what was challenged at that time by the European Union,
28:09when we want to ban the export of concentrates,
28:14they have continued to invest in smelters and the recovery is not over yet.
28:19When Indonesia decides not to export again,
28:23they don't have a team for the raw materials.
28:26When there is no team, the investment is not operating.
28:29If it's not operating, then the recovery of the investment will be longer.
28:32Or maybe it will be lost there,
28:35if the product has to be imported from here.
28:38Because then it's no longer useful.
28:40Patterns like this, I think must be the government's attention in the long run.
28:46Because this involves a trillion-dollar investment and involves many parties for this smelter.
28:50Not to mention if we talk about the operating area, local communities, etc.
28:55The problem will be even more complex.
28:57But the point is, what was the concern of Indra earlier,
28:59this smelter guarantees the continuation of everything.
29:03Because the agricultural land, if we prepare it well,
29:07the harvest is also in accordance with the schedule,
29:10then the industry in front of it will be supported well.
29:14But when the harvest is stopped,
29:17let's say in Makan Hama, there is a flood,
29:19then what is actually affected is not only the farmers,
29:22but in front of it.
29:24If in the context of agriculture, maybe we can import,
29:26but in the context of mining,
29:29most of it is in us.
29:32If we are not aware of it,
29:34automatically we don't have a team from elsewhere.
29:36This is what must be the common attention.
29:38Yes, but it is also interesting to discuss.
29:40In Hulukan, there are also some foreign companies that have entered the new mines.
29:44We will discuss later in the next segment,
29:46what is the potential, what is the investment climate,
29:48and we will discuss in the next segment.
29:51Stay with us.
29:57HULUKAN
30:08Mr. Hendra, if we talk about the investment climate,
30:12it is interesting to see the hillarization,
30:16on the one hand, there is an added value creation there,
30:19the products are expected to be absorbed,
30:21but there are also challenges.
30:22But in the meantime, the HULU sector,
30:25which is a contributor related to the hillarization itself,
30:29that is what must be paid more attention to.
30:32How do you see the investment climate, Mr. Hendra?
30:35Because there are also many foreign companies
30:38that have entered Indonesia,
30:40operating in a number of mining areas.
30:43Yes, Indonesia is still very interesting for investors
30:47who are interested in investing in the mining sector.
30:50Because our reserves, our resources are extraordinary.
30:54Investors must see it first.
30:57But what is not less important,
30:59they see the regulation of legal certainty.
31:01So our reserves are quite large,
31:04but we need to support the regulation.
31:06This is what we think is not less important,
31:09for investors to enter, there is legal certainty.
31:12And especially in exploration,
31:15because that's the key for mining,
31:18the key is in exploration.
31:20This is what many investors,
31:23companies, junior mining companies,
31:25because exploration has a very high risk,
31:28the cost is incredibly high,
31:30and our local players can be said to be rare,
31:33who want to invest in exploration.
31:37So mostly from abroad.
31:39And they are very interested,
31:41but still doubtful,
31:43because there are many regulations that are not right for them.
31:47So this is what the government needs to review in the near future.
31:53Regulations that have an impact on the development of the mining sector.
31:58Because if the regulations are amended,
32:00if exploration companies enter,
32:03we will have enough investment.
32:06Compared to the 90s,
32:09there were about 200 junior mining companies,
32:13generally from Canada and Australia.
32:14Now, maybe counted by fingers.
32:17And also legal certainty.
32:19As I mentioned earlier,
32:21there are some reserves,
32:23there are still many reserves,
32:25but the continuation of exploration,
32:27or doing the exploration of the reserves,
32:29is still under control.
32:31The licensing process is also there.
32:33Okay.
32:35It's not that the government has given the red carpet,
32:38if we talk about investment in our mining sector,
32:41which was also booming in recent times.
32:44Is this still not enough,
32:46if Mr. Hendra has given some clues?
32:50Yes, mining is divided into two, Mr. Hendra.
32:53In general, there are minerals,
32:55then there is coal.
32:57The treatment is a bit different.
32:59Coal, with the strengthening of the energy transition issue,
33:02then there is a statement from one of our BUMN banks,
33:06which is no longer ready to fund coal mining.
33:10That was a while ago.
33:11I think this is the sentiment in general,
33:15maybe more negative,
33:17and they will be careful to get in there.
33:20But with the direction of the policy in the United States,
33:23and the coal projection until 2029 is still big,
33:27maybe it will be a consideration to return,
33:30to provide support.
33:32The problem for us,
33:34as Mr. Hendra said,
33:36is the financial support.
33:38Technically, it's actually possible.
33:39Because usually,
33:41not only in general mining,
33:43but also in MIGAS, historically,
33:45the ones who found the big savings,
33:47are the actors from outside.
33:49Because the investment there is high risk.
33:51So, for example, in MIGAS,
33:53Mr. Pras, the investment, let's say,
33:551 billion USD,
33:57the oil is not found,
33:59then the money is lost just like that.
34:01It will be replaced after it is found,
34:04and successfully produced.
34:06Because the replacement is through the production result.
34:09So, usually in the field,
34:11if Mr. Pras, the investor,
34:14I own the field,
34:16Mr. Pras spends everything,
34:18land investment, planting,
34:21fertilizer, and so on,
34:23it's all on Mr. Pras.
34:25But when it comes to farming,
34:27it's all eaten by rats.
34:29So, as the landowner,
34:31I don't take the loss.
34:33The one who takes the loss is Mr. Pras.
34:35People like Mr. Pras,
34:37in general,
34:39are the international investors
34:41who are willing to take the risk.
34:43If in the economic principle,
34:45high risk, high return.
34:47That's often what we want,
34:49high return,
34:51but we don't want to take the risk.
34:53That's the policy.
34:55What about the law itself?
34:57If there is a need for consistency,
34:59execution,
35:01which is sometimes
35:03maybe a bit different,
35:05every policy.
35:07Yes, this is a classic problem for us.
35:09For example,
35:11we know the mandatory application of
35:13gross split.
35:15In the MIGAS law,
35:17there is no mandatory,
35:19but the rules of the Minister
35:21at that time can change it
35:23into a mandatory gross split.
35:25This is what I think is
35:27not a good precedent for entrepreneurs.
35:29Because then,
35:31when I contracted with Mr. Pras,
35:33with System A,
35:35I calculated my RR for 30 years,
35:37that's the basis.
35:39That's right.
35:41This is what I think needs to be learned
35:43for us together.
35:45So, what if in the previous condition,
35:47Mr. Hendra, related to the realization of investment,
35:49if we talk about funding,
35:51we know that this exploration
35:53does not require a small amount of funds.
35:55The ability of national entrepreneurs
35:57themselves,
35:59even though they work together
36:01or collaborate,
36:03there is still no one
36:05who can put high interest,
36:07or how?
36:09The success ratio in investment,
36:12according to the data
36:14released by the PwC,
36:16Indonesia is less than 4%.
36:20So, the illustration earlier,
36:22if 1 billion is invested there,
36:24the success rate is likely
36:26to be only 4 million dollars,
36:28more or less like that.
36:30Because of that,
36:32there are quite a lot of
36:34wish lists that are expected
36:36so that exploration can take place.
36:37Actually, the interest is high.
36:39The interest is very high.
36:41Moreover, this is momentum,
36:43because some communities,
36:45if we talk about exploration,
36:47especially in minerals,
36:49minerals are more difficult
36:51than coal, of course.
36:53Minerals are more difficult,
36:55especially certain minerals.
36:57Nickel, which is our largest reserve in the world,
36:59there is still more or less
37:01half of it,
37:0350% greenfield that has not been explored.
37:05So, imagine the great potential.
37:07When faced with high critical minerals
37:09and also some communities,
37:11for example, coal is already in deficit,
37:13that's where investors are interested
37:15to hunt,
37:17to chase certain communities
37:20that we have.
37:22What is the strategy?
37:24What policies are expected
37:26by businessmen?
37:28So that the export can be higher
37:30because of the demand.
37:32As we discussed earlier,
37:34whatever the global condition,
37:35the energy demand is still quite high.
37:37We will discuss it in the next segment.
37:39We will be right back.
37:58Talking about investment,
38:00if we talk about
38:02the current condition
38:04as we see it,
38:06what do you think
38:08the strategy that has been prepared
38:10with a number of challenges
38:12from domestically-dominated countries?
38:14I think the government is quite positive.
38:17We see it as positive,
38:19especially the government's commitment
38:21in President Prabowo's Asia Cita
38:23there are several points
38:25that are closely related to mining.
38:27The atmosphere of energy supply
38:29to coal,
38:30and industrialization to minerals.
38:32We just need to implement
38:34what is on the ground.
38:36These are the details of the regulation
38:38that should be reviewed again
38:40by the government and businessmen
38:42to encourage the interest in investment.
38:44Because as I said earlier,
38:46the interest to find critical minerals,
38:48especially copper,
38:50nickel,
38:52bauxite,
38:54are at the highest level in the world.
38:56And we have almost everything
38:58except lithium.
39:00These are the obstacles
39:02that we have to tackle
39:04in this short period of time.
39:06Because it is also a competition
39:08with other countries.
39:10On the one hand,
39:12we also have to improve
39:14the domestic industry.
39:16So we have to support
39:18the integration from the past.
39:20Then the mining companies
39:22that have long-term reserves
39:24must also be supported
39:26by the permit and so on.
39:28Of course,
39:30this has to be implemented.
39:32And on the other hand,
39:34the industrialization has to be built
39:36so that the continuation
39:38from the past to the present
39:40can be guaranteed.
39:42To take advantage of the mining momentum
39:44which still has a high demand,
39:46what do you think about the policies
39:48that need to be implemented
39:50when we talk about mining?
39:52Because this is a cross-ministerial issue
39:54when we talk about the mining sector in Indonesia.
39:56The most important thing is
39:58to match the frequency
40:00like in MIGAS,
40:02involving around
40:0419 ministries.
40:06So if one door is only completed
40:08in the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises,
40:10there are still 18 other ministries
40:12whose frequency or view
40:14is not yet certain.
40:16It's the same as the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises.
40:18Not to mention if there is a problem
40:20with the R2RW,
40:22the regional order.
40:24For example,
40:26the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises
40:28wants to extract the minerals,
40:30which is important for the mining sector.
40:32Which one is the priority?
40:34If it's up to the ministries,
40:36the position is the same.
40:38The Ministry of Agriculture
40:40and the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises are the same.
40:42Both of them don't want to give up.
40:44This priority scale
40:46should be at the highest level.
40:48Maybe the president
40:50can be delegated to the MENKO level.
40:52If there is a division like this,
40:54what do you think it will be like?
40:56This problem happens in MIGAS.
40:58There is a MIGAS in the agricultural land
41:00and it's done because
41:02the people in the Ministry of Agriculture
41:04think that this is the most productive land.
41:06Because coincidentally,
41:08in ASTA CITA, the position is the same.
41:10Everyone has energy,
41:12everyone has food.
41:14So if I become the Minister of Agriculture,
41:16I also have a strong position in ASTA CITA.
41:18The Ministry of Energy is also the same.
41:20I also have a strong position.
41:22Then we will choose
41:24which one is the priority.
41:26What has been done,
41:28digital cross-sector coordination
41:30means that
41:32it will be difficult to do
41:34because each person has a different perspective.
41:37We always encourage
41:39whether there is a joint KPI.
41:41If the KPI is different,
41:43it will automatically be interesting
41:45like people pulling coal.
41:47It won't go anywhere.
41:49This is what must be solved
41:51by the highest leadership.
41:53In looking at the problems,
41:55which one is the priority,
41:57which one should be cut,
41:58this is what I think needs to be done by the government.
42:00What is the projection,
42:02target, and optimism
42:04of entrepreneurs themselves?
42:06We also take advantage of
42:08the still high demand.
42:10The global conflict
42:12can actually be said to be reduced
42:14by a ceasefire in the Middle East,
42:16in Israel and Palestine.
42:18Then it is expected that other conflict countries
42:20will be involved.
42:22If we go back to geopolitics,
42:24it's not just a conflict.
42:26Geopolitics can also have an impact on the economy.
42:30Of course, in this matter,
42:32in mining critical minerals
42:35or rare earth minerals,
42:37there are geopolitical elements too.
42:40In this matter,
42:42the battle between two global economic superpowers
42:45also has a geopolitical impact
42:47and it is very real in nickel.
42:49In Indonesia,
42:51our nickel products
42:52are facing a challenge
42:54in Europe
42:56because there is a threat from Europe.
42:58Then there is also
43:00an alliance built by America
43:02that wants to reduce
43:04the domination of China
43:06for nickel products.
43:08That is also part of geopolitics
43:10that the government really has to
43:12deal with the situation.
43:14That's why nickel is our pillar.
43:16So geopolitics is not just a conflict.
43:19In the previous conflict,
43:20it gave a more positive impact
43:23with the demand.
43:25But with the geopolitical dynamics
43:27in the battle between the two countries
43:29for mining minerals,
43:31that is the point
43:33that we have to prioritize.
43:35There, of course,
43:37the coordination of the government
43:39with entrepreneurs is important
43:41for diplomacy also involves entrepreneurs
43:43because the negative campaign
43:45related to some of our communities
43:47is very strong by the outside world.
43:48That's right.
43:50Even though we have a lot of potential,
43:52the challenge of competition
43:54from other countries is also big.
43:56And this is also a negative campaign
43:58that can be challenged
44:00by our competitors.
44:02So diplomacy involving
44:04all stakeholders is very important.
44:06Lastly, Mr. Komedi,
44:08how do you see the position
44:10of increasing productivity
44:12and how can Huluka Hiller's
44:14synergy work optimally?
44:16On the one hand,
44:18there are many areas
44:20in the mining sector.
44:22We know about the conflict
44:24in the community,
44:26how to create jobs
44:28so that things
44:30that are not wanted
44:32are not achieved.
44:34Yes.
44:36Actually, in the black and white document
44:38it is already very good.
44:40Especially if you look at
44:42what was poured into Astat Cita
44:44and the priority program of Mr. Prabowo Gibran.
44:46Actually, it is very positive.
44:48Because the problem
44:50is not only in the good document,
44:52but also in the implementation.
44:54We have to have guidance.
44:56What is our goal?
44:58If the goal is for the greater
45:00prosperity of the people,
45:02I think that should be the parameter.
45:04So if in a dark situation,
45:06when there is a cliff at the end,
45:08we will head there.
45:10I think the government must
45:12maintain that and be consistent
45:14to head there.
45:15I think the government must
45:17maintain that and be consistent
45:19to head there.
45:21When the government requires
45:23mandatory processing in the country,
45:25they build a smelter.
45:27But the goal of
45:29greater prosperity of the people
45:31is not achieved yet.
45:33Why?
45:35Because until today,
45:37the domestic supply is not big.
45:39What needs to be prepared
45:41in addition to maintaining
45:42a stable domestic supply
45:44is the industrialization
45:46of the users.
45:48I think the work of the Ministry of Education
45:50is almost finished.
45:52Now, the work is moving
45:54to the Ministry of Industry.
45:56Let's prepare a roadmap
45:58in line with what has been done
46:00in the Ministry of Education.
46:02And the cross-sector coordination
46:04must be the same.
46:06Hopefully, what was done
46:08in Lembah Tidhar
46:09will be the same in other countries.
46:11That's it.
46:13From the stakeholders,
46:15we just have to wait.
46:17Hopefully, in 2025,
46:19it will be a strong momentum
46:21to synergize.
46:23Mr. Komedi and Mr. Entra,
46:25thank you for coming
46:27and for the analysis and update
46:29given to the audience today.
46:31The audience, I have accompanied you
46:33for an hour on the IDX channel
46:35Economic Outlook 2025.
46:36For more information,
46:38only on IDX channel,
46:40Yotasworthy and Comprehensive Investment Reference.
46:42Because the future must move forward,
46:44I am Investor Saham.
46:46I am Prasetyo Wibowo
46:48and all the staff
46:50on duty.
46:52Thank you. See you.