• 2 weeks ago
Transcript
00:00When you hear this specific thing, and again, one of the reasons I grabbed this, and I know,
00:06like I'm sure some people are going to be like, well you're just, why does that number
00:11matter?
00:12Numbers are numbers, and numbers are numbers.
00:14Right, but some of them are more indicative than others, in my opinion.
00:18When I look at a number like this, and I see that the Eagles are number one, and the Lions
00:23are number three, and the Ravens are number four.
00:26Good teams.
00:27I think they're telling me that that's, right, even though the Ravens suffer from a little
00:31bit of this too, lost a lot of close games, they've coughed some away, I'm thinking of
00:36that Raider game earlier this year, stuff like that, but Lamar Jackson, for good portions
00:42of this year, we've looked at him and gone, dude, that's the best player in the NFL right
00:46now.
00:47And I still believe that, even though he's not going to win the MVP, because they haven't
00:49won enough football games.
00:51They might not even, probably won't win their division, because of the way the Steelers
00:54are playing, but I think the Ravens are a better team than the Steelers.
00:58The Ravens, there's another one, by the way, the Ravens have a kicker who's gone mental.
01:03He's a great, great player, great kicker, but he's gone mental, or maybe it's physical,
01:07he's getting older, but he's not making kicks anymore, and it's costing them games.
01:12However, they remain here on this list, because I believe when they line up with the opponent,
01:19more often than not, they're better.
01:21They're better than the other opponent.
01:23Play by play, they have the answer for the opponent more often than the opponent does.
01:29And I believe the 49ers are one of those teams as well, but they're suffering from it more
01:34than anybody in the league this year.
01:36So I think there's room for both answers.
01:39What we're saying, basically, Niners are number three in the league in yard differential,
01:44outgaining their opponents.
01:46When you hear that, does it make you hopeful for what's left, or angry in terms of where
01:51we've been?
01:52I think there's room to say both.
01:54For sure.
01:55There's absolutely room to say both.
01:56Well, if you look at all their games, and I'm just looking at the game log right now,
01:59they've been outgained in games five times, and they're 0-5 in those games.
02:05Minnesota outgained them by seven yards, that's awesome.
02:08Minnesota outplayed them, absolutely outplayed them, and the Chiefs outplayed them.
02:12The Chiefs outgained them by 19 yards.
02:14So your differential's interesting, because even in a game like that, where they got outplayed,
02:19they only got outgained by 19 yards.
02:22Seattle actually outgained them by 12 yards when they beat them.
02:25Green Bay outgained them by 84 yards.
02:29Buffalo outgained them by 143 yards.
02:33Those are the games that they lost.
02:34And then you look at the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 290 yards.
02:39So your number, which is about 900 and something.
02:41It's over 1,000.
02:42It's over 1,000.
02:43Of total yards.
02:44A lot of that came against Chicago.
02:47290-yard differential to the good.
02:51But 700-plus in the other games, too, and those include the losses where you just said
02:57they've been outgained.
02:58But a lot of those were narrow, like Minnesota, seven yards.
03:01You got outgained.
03:02Kansas City, you got outgained by 19 yards.
03:05The Minnesota game's a close football game.
03:06It's a one-score game.
03:07Kansas City wasn't really that close, and you got outgained by 19 yards.
03:12Well, Kansas City doesn't gain a lot of yards.
03:14Seattle was a close game, you got outgained by 12 yards.
03:17But an example, go back to the Rams game.
03:19What was that, week two, week three?
03:20Week three.
03:21Week three.
03:22All right, go back to that Rams game.
03:23You have it in front of you?
03:24Yep.
03:25What is it?
03:26You outgained them by 129 yards.
03:27Good freaking Lord.
03:28Yeah.
03:29That is not a losing game.
03:34It just can't be a losing game.
03:37But it was.
03:38You outgained the Jets by 135 in the opener.
03:41There you go.
03:42That's a win.
03:43You outgained the Patriots by 215 in week four.
03:47Easy win.
03:48That was a laugher.
03:49Even when you boatraced Seattle, you outgained them by 125 in week six.
03:55So in their wins, a lot of them were just padded by big yardage totals.
04:00How about Tampa?
04:01What was that one?
04:02Tampa was 198.
04:04Look at that.
04:05And you needed a game-winning field goal, a foot inside the right upright.
04:09Well, because your kicker missed three.
04:11Right.
04:12Right.
04:13So your yardage numbers are great, and I do think they're indicative of an overall picture
04:17of a team that's really good.
04:19But when you start to drill down on why they're six and seven, special teams is a huge part
04:23of it.
04:24Sure.
04:25And red zone, both ends.
04:26Your red zone offense stinks, and your red zone defense has been embarrassing.
04:30This is why I think that this is a point today, and again, I'm not trying to write a fence.
04:34I just think that there's room for both answers, and it's a matter of what you want to focus
04:38on right now as an individual.
04:42But there's no two ways about it in my mind.
04:45The 49ers are six and seven.
04:47They shouldn't be.
04:49The reasons that they're not are, I would argue, more their fault than not.
04:55There are some healthy not-your-fault reasons.
05:00The things that Charverius and Trent have gone through, the injuries, the timing of
05:06those injuries, the seriousness of those injuries, the players who were injured.
05:11There's a healthy list there, but I think the list of, it is your fault, is longer and
05:16more important when it comes to winning a football game.
05:20Like even when you have no McCaffrey, you had no Debo, you had no George against the
05:25Rams, right?
05:26Yeah.
05:27They had no Puka, no Cooper.
05:28And they had no Puka, no Cooper.
05:30Right.
05:31And then you watch the game, and you're like, my God, the Niners are way better.
05:35When you watch that game, just close your eyes or remove the scoreboard from, actually,
05:41you could even keep the scoreboard on there for the majority of the game.
05:44The Niners looked way better, and then all of a sudden, there's a jailbreak and a list
05:50of things that happen, and you lose the game, and those are the 49ers' fault.
05:56Those are the 49ers' fault.
05:58So I just, I look back on it, and I still shake my head that the 49ers are where they
06:06are.
06:08But I also think in the land of fandom, where you fight till the end, and you hope until
06:18the end, and you hope against hope, and you think to yourself, hey, maybe my team, you've
06:24watched me do it each year with the Giants.
06:26You watched Goo do it with the Giants last year.
06:28The math still works.
06:30When you're sitting there trying to convince yourself that you're still in it, even when
06:35you're not in it.
06:36You know what I mean?
06:38This particular 49er team, I think that this hope against hope that we're doing is more
06:44realistic than other hope against hope situations.
06:47So you're willing to say that the math still works?
06:49I am willing to say that the math still works, but I'm not even thinking about it in terms
06:53of math.
06:54I'm just thinking about it in terms of, I believe that the San Francisco 49ers are one
07:00of the seven best teams in the NFC.
07:02And they're probably one of the seven best teams in football.
07:05And if that evens out in the end, they still can do this.
07:11I don't think it's crazy to think that they start winning some of these games down the
07:17stretch.
07:18It's not like they should be overwhelmed Thursday night.
07:21It's not like they should be overwhelmed the following Sunday in Miami.
07:25We'll talk about Detroit when we get there, if and when the Niners happen to be eight
07:29and seven at that time.
07:31They might be overwhelmed in that one.
07:33We'll see.
07:34We'll see where we're at when the time comes.
07:37But I just didn't like, even though I admit this kind of a team, remember when we asked
07:42Matt Barrows came on and I'm like the premise that we're all looking at a five game win
07:47streak.
07:48That sounds silly to you.
07:49And he was like, yeah, kind of does.
07:52And I get it.
07:53But now one of those five wins has happened and it was an indominant fashion.
07:58And while I still find that to be totally unlikely, I don't know, man, if somebody's
08:04going to do a turnabout, this is the team.
08:08That's what I think.
08:09Yes, it could be the team.
08:11But I look at what you're facing and you're facing a Ram team healthier than they were
08:16on a short week at home.
08:18You're going to have to travel to Miami, a team that's going to be playing for their
08:22playoff lives, a team that's playing better than they were earlier in the year.
08:26You're going to have to take on a couple of divisional opponents and face a Detroit team
08:31chasing a one seed and a Detroit team that nobody really has had an answer for.
08:36So on the surface, yeah, the Niners could be a team.
08:40All the numbers, the EPA, the DVOA, the advanced metrics, the yards, whatever, their record
08:46should be better.
08:47All the rest of it.
08:48That all leads you to think that they could do it and I'm with you.
08:51But I look at the slate of games that you're going to have to face shortly with the Rams,
08:57Miami and you got the Lions.
08:59It's going to be incredibly hard.
09:01Really hard.
09:02Yeah.
09:03And probably not going to happen.
09:04I'm not myopic enough to say otherwise.