Expect 49ers to beat Chiefs?
Category
đ„
SportsTranscript
00:00Like, without giving up everything that's coming later this week, how would you answer
00:06that?
00:07Like, are you expecting the 49ers to win this game?
00:10Is that the way everybody's minds are thinking right now?
00:13Yeah, it's not the way my mind is thinking, and I'm open to the idea that they can win,
00:19and there are a lot of things, as I go deeper into the Kansas City film and the numbers,
00:24things that indicate this Kansas City team is not as good as last year, and they're not
00:28as good as the first Super Bowl team that beat the Niners, and they're not as good as
00:32the team that came in here and hung, what, 46 on the Niners in that regular season tilt?
00:37This team is undefeated, so I'm not taking anything away from them, but I look at certain
00:42things that I've seen on film, and, you know, some of the stats and the numbers would indicate
00:47that this team is 5-0, not by luck, but they've had a couple of close games go their way.
00:54The Niners have had a couple of close games not go their way.
00:57If the Niners were 5-0, and KC was 3-2, or, you know, the Niners would be 6-0, I guess,
01:02because they played six games, the Niners would be favored by probably 5-1â2.
01:07Probably.
01:085 or 5-1â2, but because the Niners have gacked away a couple of games and Kansas City
01:13stayed perfect, that's why the numbers only won.
01:16I think the Niners' roster is better, and I think that being at home is a big factor,
01:22and the turnover differential is galling.
01:25How Kansas City, they've thrown six picks and they've fumbled twice, they've only generated
01:31four takeaways in five games, which is what has led them to be a minus four.
01:36The Chiefs right now are a football team that sort of defies logic on a number of levels.
01:41The only thing that's logical is that we already knew they're good and their record is good.
01:45So that's logical, but it's like you said, you can't lose the turnover battle.
01:50You can never look explosive in terms of your offense.
01:54I mean, what's their point total this year?
01:56Their highest point total this year, 27 on opening night against the Ravens.
02:01They've not gotten to 30 points once this year.
02:03Mahomes only thrown for 300 yards once this year.
02:06Their top receiving option is hurt.
02:09Their running back is hurt.
02:10The guy who's supposed to be their second receiving option is hurt and never even got
02:15there.
02:16They lose the turnover battle.
02:17He does not look great.
02:19Mark Grandy's on airwaves in a top market saying that Brock Purdy has looked better
02:25than their quarterback.
02:26Who's the face of the league?
02:27We'll get to it, Grandy, don't worry, because I'd love to hear more about what happened
02:30yesterday.
02:31But like it all defies logic that they're 5-0.
02:35Nobody's watched any of their games and came away going, well, they look good.
02:38Everyone says the same thing.
02:40Chiefs don't look right, but they won.
02:42That's how they come away.
02:44And I would argue, is that not the biggest concern that everyone would have about this
02:48weekend, is that the takeaway is, well, gosh, again, the Niners looked like the better team
02:57and lost.
02:58That's the nightmare.
02:59Yes, but for me, the thing that would make that the most likely to happen is the fact
03:06that their defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, is a lot like the defensive coordinator who
03:11you already faced, and he made things hard on you, and that's Brian Flores in Minnesota.
03:16And if you look at the defensive metrics, Kansas City and Minnesota are 1-2 in a number
03:21of those metrics, and things like pressure percentage and blitz percentage, these are
03:27things that the 49ers offensive line and Brock Purdy against Minnesota, they've struggled
03:33with that.
03:34You may not have your running back 4, right, or 3, because you don't have RB1, McCaffrey,
03:41he hasn't played.
03:42Elijah Mitchell hasn't played, won't play.
03:44Jordan Mason's RB3, we don't know if he's going to play.
03:48He practiced yesterday, so it sounds like it's trending in a good direction.
03:51That is good, and practice again tomorrow, they're off today, so I don't know how rigorous
03:56yesterday was, but something to keep an eye on.
03:59And as you start to look at the defense, you don't have Hufanga, you've got a young secondary,
04:05and you've got a guy in Kansas City that runs a 4-2-40, and just watching the New Orleans
04:09tape again this morning, there was I think 3 plays where the play was, hey Xavier, run
04:15as fast as you can by everyone, and we're just going to chuck it up to you.
04:18Well, and what did Brian Baldinger call the Niners just a week ago?
04:21Slow.
04:22Slow.
04:23Right.
04:24So, there are a number of things I look at that are troubling, and you know, we could
04:29talk about the similarities between these two offenses.
04:32I was fascinated by it as I was watching the last couple of Chiefs games and seeing what
04:37they try to do, particularly last Monday against New Orleans where they held the ball
04:41mark for 40 minutes.
04:43This is not a run-and-gun, quick-strike offense anymore, this is three yards and a cloud of
04:49dust for Kansas City.
04:50Well, Brian Baldinger came on with the guys in the morning, Bonte and Joe, he was asked
04:55specifically is that Chiefs defense, which was good last year in the Super Bowl, we watched
05:00it, is it even better this year?
05:01Well, I haven't seen anybody block Chris Jones yet.
05:05He's the most dominant interior defensive lineman in this league.
05:08New Orleans had no answer for him, he destroyed that offense.
05:11But I think they're better, just because nobody has three big linebackers like they have.
05:18They have Bolton and they have Tranquil, you know, and they have Leo Chanel, so if you
05:22want to line up and run the ball, you know, like the way the Ravens did in the playoffs,
05:26I mean, they've got three linebackers that look like defensive linemen that come and
05:29just blow you up.
05:32They have answers for whatever you want.
05:34They don't break down the back end and they get quick pressure to the quarterback.
05:38I mean, it's the ultimate.
05:39If you had to say, okay, what do I want my defense to be?
05:41I want to be stout and strong against the run.
05:44I want to be able to affect the quarterback quickly with these corner cap blitzes or slot
05:50blitzes or safe, whatever combination spags are coming.
05:53And I want to be able to do all that, oh, by the way, I don't want to break down on
05:55the back end.
05:56Like, that's, that's like the ultimate.
05:59And that's what they're able to do.
06:00I think the Niners offensive line is going to have to be incredible.
06:03Yeah.
06:04They're going to have to be incredible on Sunday and just hearing him describe the run
06:08defense like that and looking at the numbers that are allowing 3.7 yards per attempt, which
06:12is fourth best in football.
06:15And they play with three linebackers, which the Niners only play with two for the most
06:19part.
06:20They'll have a third in there.
06:21I wonder what they do this week with, you know, no Flanagan fouls and D winners who
06:25hasn't really yet hit his stride.
06:27You may be in a lot of nickel defense against Patrick Mahomes, but on the other side, you're
06:32right.
06:33You have to be able to pass, protect.
06:35And if Chris Jones is coming in the interior, that's Jake Brendel and Jake Brendel's really
06:40struggled this year in past protection.
06:43And then, you know, Dominic Poonie has been great, but Kansas city, if they can be disruptive
06:47with four or like Baldy was saying with, you know, the corner blitz and the other exotic
06:52blitz is where you only have to bring one additional rusher.
06:55You rush five and you still are disruptive.
06:58That's where this game can be difficult for Brock.
07:00Just so fascinated about the dynamics that bring the 49ers to where they are, because
07:05correct me if I'm wrong.
07:06And you guys, we can all do this by memory.
07:08I think like, were they a dog in any game last year?
07:12And Kyle, remember Kyle referenced this in, in the Cal economy podcast, when he said,
07:17we're talking about roster construction and people rip this, that, the other.
07:21And he's like, well, something, something is, is working because we've essentially been
07:26favored in every game for two years.
07:29So people, people can say, what are you doing with this roster?
07:34But then you turn around and, and, and I think privately, you like the roster because you
07:39think that we're going to win every single time we put helmets on.
07:44When was the last time the Niners were a dog?
07:48That's what I want to know.
07:50When's the last time the Niners were a dog?
07:52Yeah.
07:53Let me look that up because, uh, can you even, can anyone even remember, no, I remember the
07:59last time the Niners were a dog.
08:01Were they a dog in Philly for the NFC title game?
08:06I feel like they were.
08:08Yeah.
08:09That sounds about right.
08:10And I, and I believe that that's it.
08:12So that makes it all of last year.
08:14They were favored in every game, all of this year so far favored in every game.
08:20And right now the outlook is that they will be favored in every game for the rest of the
08:24way until something changes with their record or their scenario or, or what have you.
08:30They were even favored by four in the meaningless game against LA to end the year.
08:34Cause that was when I thought maybe they weren't, they were favored by six at home against Baltimore
08:40and you lost by 14.
08:43And were you favored at Philadelphia last year?
08:47By three, favored by three, three, three and a half.
08:49Exactly.
08:50I remember we did all kinds of stuff on it because remember that was a big deal.
08:54Like this sort of a version of this conversation we're having right now is exactly the conversation
08:59we had that week.
09:00Why are the Niners favored?
09:01And I remember, right.
09:03Remember we would text our guys with fan duel and everything and they'd be like, well, here's
09:06why they're better at every position.
09:09And I'm like, the Eagles aren't very good.
09:11And like the whole thing happened in the Niners won by whatever the hell they won by 30 points
09:15or something.
09:17It was a championship game.
09:18The 2022 season happened in early 2023 Eagles, two and a half point favorites.
09:21There it is.
09:22There it is.
09:23So that's the last time.
09:24And then how many times were they a dog that whole season, that whole prior to the NFC
09:32title game?
09:33We're on it.
09:34Don't worry.
09:35Yeah.
09:37I'm sure.
09:38Were they a dog?
09:39The last time Kansas city came here two years ago, that was the first game, October 23rd.
09:44And yeah, Kansas city by one, according to a football reference, the line that Lucas
09:50finds might be different.
09:51Do you see how stubborn this is though?
09:54Like what is that?
09:56And I love, especially the situation we're in where we hear from 49er fans every day
10:02and we are you, and we talk about this and we live this.
10:06And so therefore there's always a lot of frustration, Kyle, run the ball, whatever, all the stuff
10:11that we say about the Niners.
10:13But then somehow, some way, no matter what frustration you have, no matter if you think
10:19Kyle is overrated, dammit, stop calling him a genius.
10:22And we got questions about Brock, blah, blah, blah.
10:25When all of the conversation is over, people expect the Niners to win every time they put
10:32shoes on.
10:34Every time it like the scenario where they're an underdog is almost unthinkable.
10:40It's almost unthinkable.
10:41It's like, I don't know.
10:43How about if we draft a QB with the last pick in the draft, have two other quarterbacks
10:49get hurt, have him break some ribs, and then we'll put this innocent little flower that
10:54looks like he's never played football before.
10:56And let's put them on the road in Philadelphia in a cold environment with the Superbowl on
11:02the line.
11:03Okay, fine.
11:04We'll make you a two point dog.
11:07It's incredible.
11:08What is that?
11:09What is that?
11:11It's the roster.
11:12It's the roster and it's the coach.
11:14And it is a lot of it, I think, is bet protection because people like the 49ers.
11:20There are 49er fans everywhere.
11:21So if you put them, if you hang their number with them getting points, that thing's going
11:26to get bet into oblivion and it's going to get bet probably all the way back to where
11:30they eventually are favored again.
11:33So it's certain amount of protection from the odds makers.
11:36But also it's a very good coach, general manager, owner, franchise stability.
11:43It's a roster that's got eight of the top hundred players in the league.
11:47It's got the big three that we talked about in the crossover, left tackle, pass rusher
11:52and quarterback.
11:53And it's a team that has been successful for what, three years running now or the last
11:58five.
11:59I mean, I obviously like, yeah, we get it.
12:02I mean, there are times where I feel like I'm almost up here with my dukes up trying
12:06to defend a team that I think has been really good.
12:09But it's almost as if the world didn't want to hear Debo say what he said a few weeks
12:15ago, but they privately believe it too.
12:19Debo, don't say we've been the best team in the league for years.
12:22We just haven't won the Super Bowl.
12:24Don't say that because you haven't won this.
12:26You're not allowed to say that.
12:28But then you go to bed and you're like, but we kind of think the same.
12:30Of course.
12:32Every single time they play last year, week three at Denver, Jimmy Garoppolo, your starting
12:39quarterback Niners favored by one and a half, one and a half.
12:44So that, that is one where like if Brock Purdy misses a game for whatever reason, stubs his
12:49toe or whatnot.
12:51If he goes up against Dallas, you beat Kansas city and you face Dallas at home next week,
12:56Dallas off of buy-in.
12:57You don't have Brock Purdy who's favored Brandon Allen against Dak Prescott.
13:01It might still be the Niners, but it's really close.
13:04There's no doubt.
13:05It's still the Niners.
13:06Purdy is worth what your odds maker told us.
13:08He's worth like five points.
13:09Holmes is worth nine and everyone kind of works down from there.
13:13So I'm just looking at this game last year against Denver where Trey Lance was out and
13:19you're starting Garoppolo Purdy, it would yet to become Brock Purdy and you still were
13:24only favored by a point and a half.
13:26You were still favored.
13:27Denver was one in one coming in.
13:29Denver wasn't any great shakes.
13:31They beat you.
13:32Yep.
13:33But yeah.
13:34Anyway, nine and 11 against the spread last year, the Niners were well, nine and 11.
13:38See, and that's, that's what I'm getting at.
13:41Like I, I believe we've, we've reached a spot where there's almost, and I don't just mean
13:46this locally.
13:48There's some sort of a, I don't know if this is the right word.
13:51Check me on it.
13:52If it's not, it's almost like there's a bias, like, like there's a bias for the 49ers.
13:58Is that the fan base?
14:00Is it the sparkly roster?
14:02Is it just the story, the personalities?
14:06Like I've said this before, I think they're the best show in sports right now.
14:10My opinion, call it whatever you want, but I think Netflix saw that over the, uh, over
14:14the off season.
14:15I, the, the storylines, the Mr. Irrelevant, the kettle with the hair and the wife and
14:20the like everything Debo, there's so many different little things and, and the fan base
14:26is so large and their games are exciting and they make you mad and then they impress
14:32the hell out of you.
14:33I think they're the best show in sports.
14:35And with that, I think that there is almost whether you want to just call it a gambling
14:39bias.
14:40Like I'm seeing a lot of people like, ah, just gambling.
14:42That's not even what I'm really getting at.
14:44I'm not getting at the gambling aspect of the spread.
14:47I'm getting at the emotional aspect, the expectation, exactly.
14:50That's the word we're playing.
14:51Do you think a lot of it has now become built off of Brock Purdy being the real deal?
14:56Because I just looked back at last year against Tampa, Brock's making his first start.
15:01You've got the Niners at home against Tampa favored by three and a half Tom Brady against
15:06who Brock Purdy, but, and who's favored the Niners.
15:10But if you would, if, if Brock Purdy was to do that same thing right now, the Niners would
15:14be favored by nine, of course, because Brock Purdy has now become one of these guys who
15:20gets elevated in the eyes of everyone.
15:22It's incredible.
15:23So yeah, which is why you look at this game against Kansas city, undefeated Kansas city
15:28off a buy.
15:29You've got injury questions.
15:31You could say they do too, but they've moved on from those more than you have.
15:34And yet you're still favored.
15:35I think it's part of why the fan base though is, is, is a, would you, would you describe
15:39the fan base as often frustrated?
15:42I think so.
15:43You expect them to win every single game, but just don't lose to Arizona and the Rams.
15:49No, that's fair.
15:50They were five and one right now.
15:51The fan base would not be frustrated.
15:53No, that's, that's, that's totally fair.
15:54Although they still would be a little bit because of the super bowl.