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00:00I'm going to do something right now that's against my better judgment.
00:02Uh-oh.
00:03I like when you go against your better judgment.
00:05Well, it's probably because I got crappy judgment sometimes.
00:09But why do so many of you get bothered by the word should, should have?
00:15That's two words.
00:16Should have.
00:17Right.
00:18Why?
00:19Like, you all use it.
00:21You all say it.
00:22You all feel it.
00:24Every one of you.
00:25I've never met a human being in my life.
00:27You've done it coming off the golf course.
00:29I shot an 85, should have been an 83.
00:33And why do you feel that way?
00:34Because you had what you feel is a tailor-made opportunity lined up for you.
00:39You never say I should have birdied the hole when you're standing on the tee box.
00:43You say it because you hit a ball four feet from the pin, and then you gaffed the putt.
00:49Because it's all sitting there for you to do the easy part, and you didn't do it.
00:53So do you deserve a birdie?
00:55Did you earn a birdie?
00:56No.
00:57And then you walk away, and you're like, ah, I should have birdied that.
01:00Why is this so hard for people?
01:01Why when we're talking about a sports team, does that translate to people as like whiny
01:07and shoulda, coulda, woulda?
01:09There's not a one of you that went to bed after those Niner games, and you're like,
01:13yep, shoulda lost.
01:14That's what it felt like the whole day.
01:15I sat there for three and a half hours, and the whole time, I'm like, boy, the Niners
01:20are not as good as the Rams.
01:21The Rams are just kicking their butt up and down the field.
01:25Look at Matt Stafford go, no.
01:2714-0 before your butt was warm, and they should have won.
01:31Why is that so hard?
01:32They should have won the Super Bowl.
01:33It's not that hard.
01:34Okay.
01:35But it's meaningless.
01:36That's all.
01:37Nobody said it means anything.
01:38We're doing sports radio.
01:39I get it, Mark, but when I go to my NCGA app, and I go to post my score after a round, and
01:45I shoot a 91, and I'm looking at my scorecard, and it's like, man, I shouldn't have that,
01:50and I shouldn't.
01:51You know what?
01:52I'm gonna post an 84.
01:53You know what we call that?
01:54I actually know people who do that.
01:55We call that Montessori scoring.
01:56And nobody is suggesting that.
01:58So in a Montessori world where you get to put down whatever you feel like, in a Montessori
02:04world, the Niners are 4-1.
02:05But you're putting actions on my hands that I'm not doing.
02:08I'm not asking for the Niners to actually be 4-1.
02:12Like I'm not saying that they get to act like they're 4-1.
02:15That to me is where the should lies, because yes, they should be 4-1, but they're not.
02:19Well, no, but it's a piece of the going forward analysis of this team.
02:25Again, you and I did this yesterday.
02:27You don't think that they're the same as the Dolphins.
02:30No, we can look at all the two and three teams.
02:32You don't think that.
02:33You don't think that.
02:34You don't think they're the Raiders.
02:36But that is me looking back and also looking in the present, like looking at the present
02:40right now.
02:41The Dolphins have a problem with the most important position in sports.
02:44Of course they do.
02:45And they don't have a fix.
02:46Yes.
02:47So because they don't have a fix for the biggest problem that they have, they're going to struggle.
02:52So I look at the Dolphins and if I think, if Tua doesn't play again and they don't get
02:56another quarterback in there, Miami's going to wind up like the Jets were last year.
03:01But you even got to a point in the other room before the show where you said, this was your
03:05sentence, not mine.
03:07They're the best two and three team in football.
03:09They are.
03:10Well, how does that work?
03:11Then there's no, you can't then say in the next sentence, you can't use shoulda, coulda,
03:15woulda.
03:16Or else you can't.
03:17If you're going to be mathematical about it, then all the two and three teams are exactly
03:21the same.
03:22In the standings they are.
03:23Yes.
03:24And I've never argued that.
03:26I don't argue against that.
03:27And if you look at all the two and three teams in football and you want to like look at their
03:31record over the next 12 games, I would bet that the Niners have the better record of
03:36any of those teams going forward.
03:39But that doesn't mean that they should be four and one.
03:41You could say that, but I don't believe, and I don't believe in looking back and looking
03:47at things with, for me it feels like regret and you know I don't believe in regret.
03:52It's not regret, it's contextual.
03:55It's contextual.
03:56I mean, you brought up the PFF numbers yesterday, PFF thinks they're the best team in football.
04:02And if you want to look at EPA numbers, which I don't agree with, by the way, but anyway,
04:06if you look at EPA numbers, which is expected points added on offense and defense, they
04:11are in the top third offensively and they're in the top half defensively.
04:16So this is analytical, it's predictive, it's contextual, it's all of those things that
04:22we do when we're watching a game.
04:24Nobody texted their friends on Sunday night and went, boy, did you see the Niners get
04:29their butt whipped for 30 straight minutes in each half?
04:33Did you see the Cardinals just come in and outclass them in every single, no, nobody
04:37thinks that.
04:39Nobody thinks that.
04:40So again, I'm totally fair in my mind saying that they should be four and one.
04:46I'm not saying they should be five and O.
04:48That's when you know somebody is being myopic, where you could say, well, they were favored
04:53against Minnesota and they only lost by six.
04:56And if this guy makes that coverage and if that guy makes, that's different.
05:00They got outplayed in that game.
05:02We can admit that.
05:03You can say whatever you want.
05:04And I just don't look at sports that way.
05:07And I think about the Warriors last year where they went 46 and 36 and many people say, they
05:14should have won 50 games if it wasn't for Draymond's lack of self-control, if it wasn't
05:20for blowing two games against Oklahoma City where you couldn't figure out when to foul
05:25and when not to foul.
05:26And we can look at that and we can should have all you want.
05:30I just don't look at sports that way.
05:32And I look at, but I'd argue you do.
05:34No, I just don't want that label around you because I don't look at the results and think
05:39should have.
05:40I looked at five games and I think, were you better than the Rams for the majority
05:44of the game?
05:45Yeah.
05:46But you lost.
05:47And were you better than Arizona?
05:48Yeah.
05:49But you lost.
05:50So I don't look at they should be because that for me is rear view mirror regret living.
05:55And I don't live like that.
05:56Okay.
05:57You're two and three.
05:58I'm going to look at some of your texts.
05:59You got to deal with it.
06:00Yeah.
06:01Just search should have.
06:03No, you didn't say that, but you said the same thing in different words.
06:07I guarantee you, you said something like they had no business losing that game.
06:11Of course.
06:12But they did.
06:13That's the same thing.
06:14But they did.
06:15Yes.
06:16And I'm not arguing that they didn't.
06:17I had no business getting fired by intercom in 2014, but I did, but I did.
06:24And you can, you can ask the people who are responsible for the firing, including a guy
06:27you worked with or you worked for who was sobbing in the office next to the office where
06:33I got fired.
06:34He's a crazy person.
06:35But anyway, I shouldn't have gotten fired, but I did.
06:39I'm not sitting here telling you that what happened didn't happen.
06:44I'm simply telling you that it shouldn't have, it shouldn't have.
06:48If you replay all of this 10 times, it probably happens once out of 10 or twice, but it doesn't
06:55matter.
06:56It doesn't like, again, I'm not saying that the standings like, Oh, the Niners deserved
07:00better.
07:01No, they didn't.
07:02No, they didn't.
07:03They deserved what they got, right?
07:05But they had no business losing those football games.
07:09And I say that as we start to assess the actual roster that they have, not the one that we're
07:15dreaming about, not the one that we think we have, I'd argue that we don't.
07:21And so those two things, to me, they work together.
07:25You came in here.
07:26In fact, after the Vikings game, I'll never forget it because I think you're proven.
07:29Well, I don't know about proven.
07:31We're trending toward you being very right.
07:34You walked in here after the Vikings game and went this, this roster isn't what we think
07:38it is.
07:39It's overrated.
07:40And I, yeah, that was, that was your word.
07:41And you know what?
07:42I think you're right.
07:43I think you're right.
07:44And it's not because of like an assessment problem so much as it is.
07:51I think we're just glossing over a bunch of stuff that's happened.
07:55Mike Holmgren.
07:56Do we respect him?
07:57Oh yeah.
07:58We asked him what the problem was.
07:59He goes, it's injuries.
08:00And I think at the end, the conversation's over.
08:02It's nothing else.
08:03Nothing else.
08:05And I know that people don't want to do that because you're like, wait, you can't use that
08:08as an excuse.
08:09They're injured.
08:10The Rams are injured.
08:12You played that.
08:13Seattle's really injured.
08:14Everybody is.
08:15It's football.
08:16It's football.
08:17But I also do think it's fair to go, well, let's take all that into account and sort
08:22of think about what we think this team should be able to do with no Dre Greenlaw and half
08:29of a Charverius and no Christian McCaffrey and pieces of Brandon Ayuk or Trent Williams
08:34or Debo or Kittle or whatever.
08:37Like, yeah, it's not as good as we thought it was going to be.
08:41Right.
08:42I'll give you that.
08:43And this is where I would look at the coaches.
08:45And I'm not just looking at Kyle Shanahan.
08:46I'm also looking at Nick Sorensen and, you know, Schneider and the special teams.
08:51And I'm looking at all the coaches where you know what you have.
08:55So you go into this game and Chris Conley is going to be out.
08:59Looks like Cowling will be out.
09:00Hufanga is out.
09:01Jair Brown is a maybe.
09:02I thought Cowling practiced today.
09:04No.
09:05Okay.
09:06I have him.
09:07He might be questioned.
09:08Don't don't take not gospel yet.
09:10Marcus Jack.
09:11Cowling is not a pivotal player anyway.
09:13I shouldn't have even mentioned it.
09:14Not yet.
09:15Ronnie Bell became one in one game.
09:16So who knows?
09:17Well, we had Trent Taylor on the field, quote unquote, returning punts, although he wasn't
09:21really returning a punt.
09:23He called a 61 yard kick and he chose to go the fair catch route.
09:28So for me, this falls on the coaches.
09:30You know who you have available.
09:32Now you have to go out and try to get it done with the people that you have available.
09:36And if it means you don't have Drake Greenlaw and they haven't, you got to adjust.
09:41And if you don't have Christian McCaffrey and you haven't, then you have to adjust.
09:44And if that means use Debo Samuel a little bit more as a running back, then do it.
09:49Do whatever you can to go out there and win games.
09:52And they haven't done that.
09:53Yeah.
09:54No.
09:55Again, like all of the things that happened, happened.
09:58But I do think it's, um, I don't know, the way I would look at it is it's interesting
10:03to dive into, I guess the question being, should our expectations change?
10:10Should our expectations change?
10:11Yeah.
10:12At least for now, you know, that's the other thing we lose sight of.
10:16True.
10:18If they lose tomorrow, it's over and you're not as good as we thought you were.
10:24Today, right now, I don't know what they're going to be in November.
10:30I do know that if you want to go to data, Kyle Shanahan is a wildly more effective coach
10:35in November and December than he is in September and October.
10:39That's the data.
10:40And I would argue that that's a good piece of data for Kyle.
10:44Because things do happen to all NFL teams and adversity strikes and you've got to like
10:50figure it out.
10:52And the Niners are in that phase right now.
10:53Are they not?
10:54They got to figure it out.
10:56Put me down in the vote of I'm betting they will.
10:59By the way, Jacob Cowling officially cleared to play for tomorrow.
11:02There we go.
11:03Yeah.
11:04There you go.
11:05Let's go.
11:06That changes everything.
11:07He's going to catch a bomb on the second play of the game.
11:08Gone.
11:09And just so you know, for tomorrow and fade the dibber, the pick is in and I'll save it
11:14for tomorrow.
11:15I'm so terrified.
11:16You should be terrified of you.
11:18You should be small in stature, but you just, you carry a big old, apparently I'm more impactful
11:24than most of those 49ers.
11:26And I wonder about the whole idea of the Niners in November and December.
11:30And I'm going to do the math here in the next break, because I remember early in Shanahan's
11:35tenure where they were terrible.
11:38And one year they got Jimmy Garoppolo and well, they were good with December.
11:42And then, you know, that's part of it.
11:44That's part of it.
11:45But no, Grandy, it was with, it was the football hour, like two weeks ago.
11:50He's eating now, but, but you were talking to Kyle Madsen and I was driving through the
11:55Robin Williams tunnel and I was bummed because I went through the Robin and I popped out
12:01the other side and you and Madsen were talking about Kyle Shanahan's numbers in the second
12:07half of the season versus the first.
12:10Last two years, 13 and one.
12:13After October 31st, seven and one last year.
12:17And I'm looking at nine and oh, the year that they were three and five, 13 and four, and
12:26they were undefeated after October 31st, the year they were three and five and they finished
12:3010 and seven.
12:31So they went seven and two down the stretch.
12:33Yeah, they went, well, I'm looking at the loss was November 7th, they were three and
12:38four after October 31st and they wound up 10 and seven.
12:41So they were seven and three that year.
12:43Yeah.
12:44So the last three years, it seems like they are pretty damn good.
12:48Like, I don't know.
12:49I think we, is this fair?
12:51We got lulled a little bit last year was so outside of that middle three games last year,
12:58we had our feet up the whole year.
13:00Yep.
13:01They had that, like they lost, cause forget the fifth loss.
13:04That was stupid.
13:05Nobody played.
13:06Fine.
13:07But outside of that, you had the three game losing streak with Trenton Deboe out.
13:11We came back and you throttled Jacksonville 34 to three lost one other game, but not only
13:16did you not lose, but you beat Jacksonville by 31, Tampa by 13, Seattle by 18, Philly
13:22by 23.
13:23Double digits, double digits, double digits, double digits, Seattle by 12, Arizona by 16.
13:29Baltimore was, you got crushed.
13:31Yeah.
13:32And you face that same coordinator on Thursday, not to tip my pick early, but you face that
13:36same coordinator Thursday.
13:39You beat the commanders by 17 and then you lost to the Rams in the who cares bowl by
13:44one.
13:45So like we double digit, double digit, double digit, double digit, double, double, double,
13:47double, double.
13:48All of them.
13:49Except for the loss.
13:50It was an in and out schedule.
13:51I love that.
13:52Double, double animal style.
13:53Make sure you grow the onions.
13:54But I like, I, I look at last year and we forgot that crap happens.
14:01Crap happens?
14:02Almost every year.
14:03Sorry.
14:04I know that makes your mind, your mind goes home.
14:06Think about Casey.
14:08What about him?
14:09Schmidt happens.
14:10Yes.
14:11Schmidt happens.
14:12Much better.
14:13Every single year.
14:14And we're knee deep in Schmidt happens right now.
14:19And so yeah, it might crater the season.
14:25History suggests they're going to figure it out.
14:29The year before history suggests they were four and four after the end of October.
14:36And then they went on to win their last nine in the regular season.
14:40And I'm seeing, uh, two games that were one score games.
14:45They beat the chargers by six.
14:47They beat the Seahawks by eight, Arizona, 28, New Orleans, 13, Miami, 16, Tampa.
14:54They beat Tampa by 28.
14:56They beat the commanders by 17, the Raiders by three in overtime, Seahawks by eight was
15:00the, that was the clincher with the tackle at the one yard line.
15:03If I remember correctly, right, that was the previous year, this is 2022 where they
15:09went 13 to four, but to your point after October 31st, Halloween, they tend to be a much more
15:16effective team.
15:17I have the numbers.
15:18Do you want them?
15:19Yeah.
15:20So, uh, the Kyle Shanahan era, uh, September and October, 27 and 32 under Kyle Shanahan,
15:27losing record, November, December and January, generally you have like one regular season
15:32game at the end of January.
15:33This is just regular season, November, December, and January, 39 and 22.
15:39It's pretty significant.
15:4039 and 22.
15:41Pretty significant.
15:42Whoa.
15:43And this, and that, uh, both those records, the good and the bad encompass what, what
15:49Kyle did when he first arrived.
15:51Right.
15:52And obviously they were pretty junky for a year and a half.
15:54For sure.
15:55Yeah.
15:56So, so like, man, that's a significant number to me.
16:00That's a significant stat.
16:02And so, you know, we can look at him and Baldy can call him slow and we can figure out what,
16:07what's going on with Devondre Campbell.
16:09Like I think it is likely, I can't put it in ink.
16:14I think it's likely that they're going to figure something out.
16:19They've also shown the complete and total willingness that if they do get to the midpoint
16:25of the season and something ain't working right, they'll address it.
16:30They will address it.
16:31Look at their acquisitions, Chris McCaffrey and Emmanuel Sanders and chase young.
16:36And did every one of them work out perfectly?
16:38No, but they're aggressive with it.
16:40I don't think that you have to worry about this team just kicking their feet up and being
16:44like, bummer.
16:45We suck.
16:46Yep.
16:47Like that's fair.
16:48They're gonna, I think they're gonna figure it out.
16:50Last three years.
16:51Just doing the quick math after October 31st, they're 23 and five.
16:55Dude, that's the last three years.
16:57And this is, and that's why I find.
16:59Thank you, Grandy, for doing the deeper homework.
17:01And that's why I also find what I'm saying to be significant and not some like whiny
17:07point from a, from a toddler, like the Niners should be four and one.
17:13They don't look perfect yet.
17:16This could bite them.
17:17It very well may mean the difference between one or two home games and not in the playoffs.
17:24This is damaging.
17:25I would say nothing different, but it's like, we are not at overreaction time yet.
17:33They're not awful.
17:34They don't stink.
17:35They don't all this, that, and the other.
17:38They should be four and one and they're a breath away from being that.
17:42And even without that, they're two and three and they've got an opportunity tomorrow night
17:47to go to a building that they have owned for about three or four years now, do it again
17:54and you'll see their name right at the top of the NFC West.
17:57When you wake up Friday morning, take a breath and, and trust that November and December
18:04are common or you go on the road or they fumble again.
18:09Yes.
18:10Or you realize that, you know, you're 23 and five, the last three years after October 31st.
18:15And you realize that, well, you've got a short week, shout out low Neal and short week, not
18:20short, but shart with an a, and you play at Seattle.
18:24You're only a three point favorite.
18:26And you know, you find another way to lose another game and darn it.
18:29You should be five and one, but you're two and four.
18:32And then you face an undefeated Casey team off of by, and you lose that because it's
18:38not yet November.
18:39And then you face Dallas off of by, and you know what, darn it, you lose that too.
18:44And now you're two and six.
18:45So even though you're really good after October 31st and you go into the, by now you've got
18:51work to do over the, the last 11 games, including a back-to-back in green Bay and Buffalo.
18:57So all I'm saying is I'm not trying to be the negative guy here because, but working
19:02with you, I usually am the negative guy because I could never out positive you and I'll never
19:08out negative Stiney, but we still have three games to go until we get to November 1st.
19:13So sure.
19:14That cute little stat that Grandy gave, and I gave you a even more condensed positive
19:19stat.
19:20You still have work to do and it starts tomorrow.
19:22No doubt.
19:23Like you're not going to hear me say that tomorrow is not a massive deal, massive game.
19:28And how about this for a data in history also, when the Niners under Kyle Shanahan face a
19:36game like this, it usually goes pretty damn well.
19:42I can think of, and there's no data for this, the emotional feeling of, Oh my God, you better
19:48win.
19:49Gotcha.
19:50You better win game.
19:51Remember Jimmy Garoppolo was going to get benched.
19:53He was going to get benched if he didn't beat the Rams.
19:57It's the year the Rams won the Superbowl.
19:58They blew him off the field.
20:00I can think of if you want to put this in that category of last year against Jacksonville.
20:05Oh my God, you better come out of the buy and look different.
20:08Blew them off of the field.
20:10Go to the final game of the regular season against the Rams, needing a win to make the
20:15playoffs.
20:16Boom.
20:18You win that game.
20:19Overtime.
20:20Dre Greenlaw.
20:22How about going to Seattle knowing that you better win in order to clinch the division.
20:26Boom.
20:27You get that win.
20:28There have been a number of games that you go into that in theory look like on paper
20:34they're difficult scenarios.
20:35This is no rest on the road at night.
20:39Primetime division foe.
20:41All of those things.
20:42I would argue in those games when the Niners do put that kind of energy on the game as
20:48they clearly did yesterday, it's gone pretty well historically.
20:52Yeah.
20:53It has.
20:54It has.
20:55And you can look at other games that have been pretty darn important, such as Superbowls
20:59and NFC championship games and regular season games.
21:02I get it.
21:03I do think it's fair to look at other games that are equally important.
21:07Yeah.
21:08But those are against the other best teams in the NFL.
21:11Like this is not that's not what this is.
21:13It's not.
21:14I don't think that's what this is.
21:15It's not.
21:16But I do think that it's, you know, it's obviously a divisional game and it's a place that is
21:20not easy to win at.
21:23And the Seahawks have, you know, had some success at home.
21:26And I do think that both teams off of a of a short week and, you know, you come in there
21:31with more injuries than you would probably hope to have.
21:35And I think that this game's a little bit more of a toss up.