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00:00So here's what the slides look like, and for all of you,
00:02we'll have a promo code right before the commercial,
00:04so stay tuned there.
00:06Let's meet the field for the Raven Run.
00:08I like this race because every year,
00:11this is a race for three-year-old fillies, Alexa,
00:13at the end of the year, when there's not a whole lot
00:15of races for just three-year-old fillies left
00:17in this division, so you'll get a chance
00:19to see them facing their own age group
00:21for just a few more times here.
00:23And we'll start with the number one, Fibber,
00:25who is stakes placed, and Fibber's
00:27in pretty nice form right now,
00:28had won back-to-back races before finishing second
00:31in the Dogwood to my main squeeze,
00:33so we're looking at Fibber here.
00:35How do you think she stacks up with this group?
00:37I like Fibber a lot.
00:38Chris Hartman, her trainer, claimed her four races ago
00:40for $100,000, and he's just really improved her
00:44under his guidance.
00:46All three starts have been the fastest races
00:48she's ever run.
00:49She's got a bullet work coming into the race today.
00:51I think she's kind of at her prime, at her peak.
00:55Yeah, she seems like she's doing the best
00:57that she's ever done right now.
00:59She should be able to save some ground from the inside.
01:01The number two, Alexa, is Miyucha,
01:03who's a stakes winner, was a third-place finisher
01:06in the Priors last time out behind Brightwork
01:09and Too Sharp.
01:10Too Sharp came out of that race to win next time out.
01:12So the race has come back live,
01:14and I feel like in a spot like this,
01:16so this is a grade two race,
01:18these are not quite the best, maybe the top,
01:21top of the division of the Philly and Mare sprinters,
01:23maybe just below, and I think that's where Miyucha
01:26probably fits with this group.
01:28She'll be a fair price in here.
01:30Do you like her at all?
01:32I do and I don't, because she's just so hot and cold to me.
01:35She'll have like really great performances
01:37and then have a not so great performance.
01:39So for me, given that, I would want a bigger price
01:43than six to one.
01:45New York bread is the number three, my main squeeze.
01:49This is a very nice Philly,
01:50who is a multiple graded stakes winner.
01:52She just won the Dogwood by five lengths.
01:55And if you go through her form,
01:56she's faced some of the best three-year-old Phillies
01:59like Torpedo Anna, like Ways and Means.
02:02Those two are going to be the top two betting choices
02:06in their individual Breeders' Cup races
02:08in just a couple of weeks.
02:09So she's faced some really tough company.
02:12Yeah, I like my main,
02:13I think my main squeeze fits in here.
02:16She's a closer, but does seem to do her best
02:18when she can kind of stalk near the pace,
02:20no more than three to four lengths back off of the leader.
02:23I don't know if I totally agree with time form
02:25that she's going to be so towards the back
02:29at the beginning of the race.
02:29I hope she can stay a little bit more forwardly placed.
02:33And she's never been over the Keeneland course.
02:35And I will say her trainers,
02:37not really having a very good Keeneland meeting
02:39is one for 19 right now.
02:40So that's a bit concerning.
02:41But despite that, I do still think she fits here
02:44and is going to be a player.
02:45She's kind of a measuring stick for this field.
02:47You feel like you know what you're going to get from her,
02:49and that'll probably be good enough to hit the board.
02:51If someone jumps up and runs like an awesome race,
02:53they're good enough to win this thing.
02:55And Twirling Queen is the next one we'll take a look at.
02:58This is a really sharp horse right now, Alexa.
03:00She's won four in a row,
03:02but those races have come on the synthetic surfaces
03:05and on the turf and going a little bit shorter.
03:07So not only is she going to have to move back to the dirt,
03:09but she'll have to stretch out a little bit
03:11from five and a half furlongs to seven furlongs.
03:14Yeah, you know, she didn't perform well
03:16on the dirt as a two-year-old,
03:18and then they switched her to synthetic and she hasn't lost.
03:21So, and on the turf.
03:22So now they're like trying to run dirt again.
03:24I guess I'm trying to understand the trainer's decision here.
03:27Maybe they're thinking,
03:29oh, some of this success is due to her
03:31just development in age,
03:33and we want to try her again on the dirt
03:34and see if, you know, she fits or she fits there now.
03:39But I'm of the mindset, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
03:42So I don't completely understand trying her here.
03:46Do you know, Gino, if she's actually going to run?
03:48Because she is cross-entered.
03:49She's cross-entered.
03:50And I was going to say,
03:51that would make a lot more sense
03:52for her to be in a different spot.
03:53But you wonder, we see a couple of horses this weekend
03:55that are cross-entered in races at Keeneland
03:57and at Belmont at the Big A.
03:59Sometimes at the time when we were recording this,
04:01it's a little early,
04:01so we don't have the final information there.
04:03But I agree with you.
04:04I'd be a little cold on her in this spot too.
04:06I don't know if seven furlongs on the dirt
04:08is what she wants.
04:09But the next couple of horses in here
04:11feel like major players,
04:12and starting with the five, Emery,
04:13she's the horse to beat.
04:14I mean, her last three races are so good,
04:18and she lost to Ways and Means,
04:20who I had just mentioned before.
04:21She's four for six overall,
04:23and her two defeats are to nice, nice fillies.
04:26Yeah, this horse is a formidable favorite in here.
04:29She's won four out of her six lifetime starts.
04:31The only two she lost were grade ones,
04:34both over muddy or sloppy tracks.
04:36She got second in the grade one test,
04:37last out at Saratoga,
04:39behind, like you said, Ways and Means,
04:40who ran in the Kentucky Oaks,
04:42to put that in perspective,
04:43and is going to be a contender in the Breeders' Cup
04:46filling in their sprint at the championships
04:48for a million dollars.
04:49So she's absolutely no joke.
04:51Very quick, early pace,
04:52and likes to stalk the leader
04:53and grind them down at the end.
04:54I'm a big fan of Emery.
04:56Yeah, and if you look at who she beat,
04:58two starts back in the victory ride,
04:59a horse named Mystic Lake.
05:01Mystic Lake beat My Main Squeeze.
05:03So the second, the major rival for Emery
05:07has been defeated by a horse that she just dusted.
05:09So if you're playing that common rival game,
05:11she looks really good.
05:12The number six, Vivi's Dream,
05:14was a nice two-year-old,
05:15kind of into the beginning of three,
05:17and then last,
05:19and then most recently, earlier in the year,
05:21hadn't really been able to step forward all that much,
05:23but she kind of comes in in a decent pattern.
05:25She's a grade three winner, Alexa.
05:27What do you think about Vivi's Dream?
05:29You know, she just kind of stalled.
05:30Her two-year-old year was really impressive.
05:32We thought, oh, she might be one of our future stars,
05:34and then this year has just been a disappointment.
05:38She ran too early on and disappointed them both,
05:40had that six-month break,
05:42and came back and kind of disappointed again.
05:44So I think we'd need a huge improvement from her.
05:47The number seven, Mink's Palace, is a horseshoe.
05:50At first glance, I was gonna kind of toss,
05:52and then I got back to Mink's Palace again, Alexa,
05:55and I think one thing's really interesting
05:56about this particular filly.
05:58When you look at the races where they grab ahold of her
06:01and she takes back a little bit, she wins.
06:04In her career debut, she was coming from off the pace.
06:08She won.
06:09In her second start, they put her on the lead.
06:10She faded.
06:11But in her third start, they went a little bit longer.
06:14Fourth start, they took her back.
06:15She wins.
06:16It seems like she really likes being behind horses,
06:19covered up a little bit,
06:21and that's a real thing with certain horses.
06:22They have particular running styles.
06:24It takes a little while sometimes to figure it out,
06:26a little bit of trial and error,
06:27but I think they've got her figured out
06:29that she just wants to sit behind and then make one late run.
06:32I actually think she's heading in the right direction.
06:35I would not be shocked at all to see her run well in here.
06:38I mean, she's beat two from this field.
06:40She beat Ripperton and Vivi's dream last out,
06:42hasn't run against stakes companies,
06:43so this is going to be the toughest spot for her,
06:46and her normal jockey is on my main squeeze instead,
06:50so she does get Jose Ortiz,
06:51but he's ridden her before once, and it was to victory,
06:55so I agree with you, Gino.
06:56I like her progression and where she's heading.
06:58Yeah, you and I kind of think
06:59she's the most interesting price.
07:01Towards the outside, a couple long shots.
07:03Uno Lee couldn't really make a case for this one.
07:05The form, I just need to see more
07:07from this really lightly raced horse.
07:09Agree.
07:11And the nine, Ripperton is stakes placed.
07:14Ripperton was the runner-up last time out
07:15behind Minx Palace.
07:17Ripperton seems like a horse who,
07:19kind of a bit one-dimensional, maybe a pace horse.
07:22I could see up forwardly placed in here.
07:24I just don't know if this one can hang around late.
07:26Yeah, she lost by a head to Minx Palace last time,
07:29and 21 to one odds, I think,
07:32so she outran her odds last time.
07:34I think she can outrun her odds again this time,
07:36but I think this is a very tough spot
07:39to ask her to prove herself.