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00:00So this one is the Bowman Mill, talk to us about how you like in this race.
00:06Yeah, this is a two-year-old race, so a lot of these are babies, and well, they're all
00:10babies, and I like the number four, Macho Music, who is the likely favorite, but he's
00:15run three times and won the last two by nine and a half lengths and four and a half lengths,
00:21so that's pretty impressive.
00:22But what I like the most is that he's already won at this meet going over the Keeneland
00:27course, which is a big leg up against all these other babies who have never, ever run
00:31at Keeneland.
00:32You know, his running style is to go to the lead and not look back, and Timeform US projects
00:37right there, that's exactly what he's going to do.
00:40Macho Music, ooh yeah, gonna be right on the front end, politically correct, I think as
00:44a horse who has some versatility, who can sit just off, so if there is a little bit
00:48of early pace pressure, politically correct, who has some backlass, probably could get
00:52the jump on maybe a horse like Middy's Gritty or some of the deeper closers in here.
00:56So we'll use the speed of the four, we'll use the five, politically correct, who's also
00:59faced some really tough foes.
01:02As we move into race number seven, it's the second leg of the sequence, Alexa, talk to
01:06us about the horse who you like in here, that's the number two.
01:10Yep, number two, Mrs. Astor, morning line eight to one odds or plus 800.
01:15You know, this race has a lot of pace in it, and she has the best closing speed, so what
01:20I'm really hoping for is a pace meltdown for her to run at.
01:24She went off at odds of 52 to one last out in a big step up in a grade three race at
01:29Keeneland just this past Sunday, and she definitely outperformed those odds, losing by only three
01:35lengths.
01:36So her trainer, Jonathan Thomas, is bringing her back on super short rest, but he's proven
01:40successful doing this before, so he must think she's just really at her peak fitness in her
01:45form cycle right now, and that last week didn't take that much out of her to bring her right
01:49back.
01:50I like the four a little bit in this race.
01:52That is bell of rights.
01:53It's going to make her second start back off of a short break for a barn.
01:57That's a really patient barn, so generally they do well with horses like this who are
02:01coming back after making a few starts off layoffs, and I thought in her last race in
02:06the Virginia Oaks, she was facing pretty tough company.
02:08The top four finishers in there, they would all be pretty live contenders if they were
02:12in this race, so I think she's just getting much softer competition in here.
02:16She could sit a nice trip if they go too quick early.
02:19One of those horses who will be going quick early is Cahill Beach, who you and I both
02:23liked and looks like the speed of the speed, so if anyone's going to take this field gate
02:28to wire, it's probably the number 11 in here, Cahill Beach, so we'll end up going three
02:33deep in there with the two, the four, and the 11 as we turn the page to race number
02:38eight.
02:39That's the race that we just discussed, so Alexa, why don't you recap for everyone?
02:43Who are we going to be using in that race?
02:45Absolutely.
02:46We did the deep dive, but for the pick five, we're going to use the number two, Tuma Roomba,
02:51at six to one, likely early pace leader of the field who's gotten first or second in
02:55every start this year, four of those being graded stakes.
02:58We'll also use the favorite hit show who won both the West Virginia Governor's Stakes and
03:03the Lucas Classic for his last two starts in his prime for trainer Brad Cox, and we'll
03:08try to close late in the game, and the number nine, Grand Aspen at 10 to one, a price play
03:13that Gino likes in this field who's coming off that long layoff and should be sitting
03:17behind Tuma Roomba and had three dirt races last year where he almost won at grade three
03:22at Gulf Street.
03:24Let's get to the ninth race.
03:25That's the grade three Bryan Station.
03:27You and I are big fans of the racing up at Woodbine.
03:29You've made some trips up there.
03:31We cover the racing there quite a bit, and one horse who's done a lot of his work up
03:35at Woodbine is my boy Prince.
03:37Talk to us about him and a couple others in this race.
03:41Yeah, my boy Prince, number four, a 15 to one odds.
03:45I really liked him in the Kings play this August.
03:48He was my favorite, and he was everybody's favorite.
03:50He was the betting favorite.
03:51He ended up getting second place and then ran in the Woodbine mile last out and disappointed,
03:55but you know, that was grade one, so tougher competition than he'll face today.
04:00I think he's the best of the early speedsters in here.
04:03He's won half of his 12 starts and been in the money 10 out of 12 lifetime starts, so
04:09he's just not one to ignore, especially at these odds.
04:12If these odds hold, we'll be the longest we've ever had on him, even when he's run against
04:17tougher.
04:18And that's just like, yeah, go ahead.
04:19The 11 also, right?
04:20Yeah.
04:21Chakari, the 11, two to one likely favorite, a grade one and grade two winner, 1.3 million
04:27lifetime earnings, so very accomplished horse.
04:30This race doesn't have a whole lot of pace up front, so the fact that Chakari has that
04:35tactical speed or does, sorry, does have a lot of race up front.
04:39So he has that tactical speed and has shown us in the past that he can win from a number
04:43of different pace scenarios.
04:45He can be on the lead.
04:46He can also sit back and hold off and close.
04:48So I think his best bet tomorrow will be to hang off his pace and make a bit of a late
04:54run in his most recent races.
04:56He's been not too far off some really talented horses like Johannes, who's probably going
05:01to be favored in the Breeders' Cup Mile next weekend for millions of dollars in the World
05:06Championships.
05:07So we're looking for horses with the same kind of running style, right?
05:09Because you point out with Trickery, who wants to sit pretty close, I think the three is
05:14a really fun price horse to Hershey, who was not far behind Brilliant Birdie, had legitimate
05:19traffic that day.
05:20If you're someone who likes to watch replays, check out how this horse was blocked and never
05:24really had a shot.
05:25So we give ourselves an opportunity with a big price horse who could be sitting in a
05:29really nice spot behind the leads and then maybe get the jump on some of the deep closers.
05:33So hopefully we can make it through the Bryan Station and we'll turn the page to race number
05:3810.
05:39This is a really difficult maiden race to close it out, Alexa.
05:43High level maiden claimers, $150,000 maiden claiming ranks.
05:47You and I just threw in a bunch of price horses that we really liked.
05:51Talk to us about the two that you wanted on the ticket.
05:53This is a tough race.
05:54I'm going to use the number four, Stay Frosty at 12 to 1.
05:57A first time starter by Frosted, whose first time starters do tend to outperform the average
06:02on Dirt Sprinters.
06:04Also the 10, Frack Baby, 12 to 1 odds.
06:08Also a first time starter out of a Sire, whose babies tend to outperform.
06:12The Time For Mia's breeding rating on Frack Baby is 100 out of 100 for Dirt Sprints.
06:16So he's just not one I'm going to leave out.
06:19Yeah, we'll mention the five, Thunderhawk, and the eight, Free Country.
06:22Thunderhawk, flash speed, going longer.
06:24Free Country was in a race that set up for a deep closer.
06:27They were flying early.
06:28You're actually going to see Middy's Gritty running earlier on on the card in that sixth
06:32race, which is a stake.
06:33So let's take a look at how we've put together the pick five.
06:36Remember, you multiply the amount of horses you use in each race.
06:40So we'll use the four and the five.
06:41That's two horses.
06:43Two times three, as we use two, four, and 11, is six.
06:46Times three is 18.
06:48Times three is 54.
06:50And then we multiply by four.
06:52And since it's a 50 cent ticket, we divide by two.