• 2 days ago
Transcript
00:00as we move to take a look at the field for the Risen Star,
00:03you're getting to the point now where you're only gonna have
00:05like two real swings at it, right?
00:07Two real cracks at trying to get into the field.
00:09If you get in a little bit of trouble,
00:11if you don't have the best trip,
00:12you may only have one other shot.
00:14So right now we're starting to get anxious time
00:16for a lot of these horses trying to get their derby points.
00:19Let's meet the field for the Risen Star.
00:21This is going to be race number 14 on a big card
00:26on Saturday, February the 15th over at the fairgrounds.
00:30Alexa, we start with the number one,
00:32American Promise from the inside,
00:34was in the Southwest most recently,
00:36kind of hopped at the start,
00:37didn't come all the way up to second pressing.
00:40This guy for the coach D. Wayne Lucas from the inside,
00:43I'm expecting big speed from him.
00:45You can see on the projector,
00:47they have him one of the faster horses
00:49in this field early on.
00:50Yeah, I really like American Promise in here
00:52as the son of Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown winner,
00:55Justify, like you said, likes to be on that lead.
00:59In his last race, he just didn't get his way.
01:01Like you said, he hopped at the start,
01:03then had to spend so much energy and gas to get up front
01:06and then tired, then lugged in,
01:08actually got himself disqualified cutting off another horse.
01:11It just wasn't great.
01:13But I think if he got a better break that day,
01:15he would have made a huge impact
01:17and we're getting 12 to one odds on him.
01:18So I like American Promise.
01:21We got news that Jonathan's way, unfortunately,
01:23he's going to scratch from Saturday's race.
01:25They had an unsatisfactory blood count.
01:27So we won't be talking much about Jonathan's way.
01:30He would have been a major player in here.
01:32We can move to Vossimo, who is two for two.
01:34He won over at Tampa.
01:36He's kind of been in the news also.
01:38We'll keep on him.
01:39He had a test that came back.
01:40It's kind of like up in the air right now.
01:42But as far as this particular race, Alexa,
01:44what do you think about him in this spot?
01:48Kind of interesting.
01:49He actually sold for 120,000 as a yearling,
01:51which is 55,000 less than a stud fee.
01:54And stud fee is how much your owners pay for that seed.
01:58His dad was 175K a pop, so lucrative business there.
02:01But you usually want your horse to sell at least three times,
02:04more like five to 10 times is a great sale.
02:06So when they sell less, that's a little bit of a red flag.
02:08Like, was he just not looking that good?
02:12But I mean, he's run okay in his few races.
02:15So I think he's a wild card in here.
02:16He could step up, rise to the occasion,
02:19but he would need to improve from what we've seen so far.
02:22Thank you for the definition of stud fee.
02:23I thought that was my salary.
02:25That's what I was told I get paid was the stud fee,
02:28but I guess it has a double meaning there.
02:31East Avenue was the Breeders' Cup juvenile favorite, Alexa,
02:34and he was a major, major player in there.
02:36He looked like the horse to catch,
02:38stumbles out of the starting gate,
02:39and we haven't seen him since.
02:41So this will be the starting point for him for 2025.
02:45Now, I still think he's one of the better horses
02:47in this division, but we do have to keep in mind,
02:50his goal is the Kentucky Derby.
02:52So his goal is three races from now
02:55to be primed for his absolute best.
02:57He should be ready for a big race,
02:59but he might not be 100% fit for this race.
03:02Yeah, and East Avenue loves the lead.
03:05And so the Breeders' Cup already
03:07was gonna be a really hard race for him
03:08because he drew the one hole.
03:09And when you want to shoot to the lead,
03:12you don't want that inside position
03:13where you can get caught in tight, pinned on the rail.
03:15And then with the bad break,
03:17it was just no shot for him there.
03:18So like you said, they might not have him
03:20perfectly tightened up for this race,
03:22but if he gets a luckier trip,
03:24I think he could absolutely be the one to beat
03:26and secure his spot in here.
03:27And think about this.
03:28Like if you had a bad game, a bad race,
03:32what you're going to do is the next time you come out,
03:35you're going to at least make sure
03:36you do what has worked well for you.
03:38I think they're gonna be very adamant and aggressive
03:40about making sure he gets to the lead,
03:42he gets out of the starting gate well,
03:44and they put him on the front end.
03:45If he doesn't finish, well, that's a different story,
03:47but I think they're gonna make sure they get to the spot
03:50where he's had really good success before.
03:52What do we do with Chunk of Gold?
03:54The next one up, the number five,
03:55who's gonna be making his first start on the dirt.
03:57He's run twice on the synthetic over at Turfway.
04:01Yeah, I mean, this horse has a fast late kick.
04:03So I do think that's the best like upside
04:04or advantage in here, but I don't think he's good enough.
04:07Seattle Road is the next one.
04:09That's the number six.
04:10The lack of early speed from him hurts a little bit.
04:13He was actually 79 to one in the LeCompte,
04:16which is the earlier series of races at Fairground.
04:20So against a lot of these same rivals,
04:23he was 70 to one.
04:24Can you make a case for him in here?
04:25I can't, I cannot.
04:27He's not running well enough against similar opponents.
04:29He's about 20 speed points lower than he needs to be.
04:32Septarian, the next one up, the number seven,
04:35is a horse who actually won at Charlestown and at Laurel
04:39at smaller tracks.
04:40And then he moved into the Chad Brown barn
04:41for the first time.
04:42He was a fine third in the Mucho Macho Man.
04:45He put the blinkers on.
04:47And I mean, if you're just talking about connections,
04:49Chad Brown, Flavian Pratt,
04:50you've got Eclipse Award winners teaming up with Septarian.
04:54I like Septarian.
04:55Chad adding blinkers today for the first time
04:57is a trainer move that he's really savvy with.
04:59He wins 30% of the time when he adds them.
05:03This horse has also had two bullet workouts in a row.
05:06And a bullet workout just means of all the horses
05:08that worked out at that location at that distance that day,
05:11his time was the fastest of anybody.
05:14So he's definitely looking fit, training well,
05:17and I think has some upside
05:18and could be worth including underneath
05:20at long odds at 12 to one.
05:22The number eight is the Keith DeSormo trained Geoco.
05:25So he's a little bit of a tough read for me, Alexa,
05:28because both of his wins have come on the turf.
05:31So I'm just not quite sure how good he is on the dirt.
05:34Yeah, I think he could like the dirt more than the grass,
05:38but even with the surface change,
05:41I just don't think he's quick enough
05:42and from a pretty low percentage trainers,
05:45he's not doing great at the moment.
05:46And he hasn't raced since the very beginning
05:48of November too.
05:49So for him now, we're starting to get to a point
05:51where the layoff might be an issue.
05:53I thought the number nine built made a lot of sense in here.
05:56He ran on a sloppy track last time out in the LeComte, Alexa
05:59he actually ran second that day.
06:01And I don't even think he liked the track,
06:02even though he ran second,
06:04he looked like he was just kind of getting there on class.
06:06I feel like now getting back to a fast track,
06:09he's a major player.
06:11And when you look at like East Avenue,
06:13who might be a little bit short in this race,
06:15maybe he's not quite as fit late or it's like built.
06:18Maybe he's not the Derby winner,
06:20but I could see him running a big race in this spot.
06:22Maybe just being a little more fit and a little more ahead
06:25at this point of the year than some of his rivals.
06:27I agree.
06:28I think built a good play in here.
06:30You know, as one half of his starts
06:31and the first we're on the lead.
06:34And then like you said, last out,
06:35even though he didn't win, he came from off the pace.
06:37So I think he's tactical and makes sense.
06:40There's a horse next out the number 10 render judgment.
06:42I think you can make some excuses for his last two races.
06:46It was a little bit wide at Churchill Downs
06:47in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
06:49And then most recently he stumbled at the start.
06:52I could see him being a price horse that hits the board
06:56and a horse that maybe spices up some of the exotics.
06:58Any thoughts on render judgment?
07:01I was waiting to hear what you thought
07:02because I was like toss, I don't like them.
07:04And then I saw them in your picks.
07:06So I didn't see those trouble lines in his past starts,
07:09but I'll leave that to you.
07:13But I do know that you'd like one of the longer shots
07:16in the inside we talked about.
07:18So we're looking for some prices here and there.
07:20Any of these outside horses on your radar?
07:22Jolly Samurai is next up.
07:25I'm passing on all the outside 11, 12, and 13 for me.
07:29I just think this is a really tough spot
07:31for all of them to be in.
07:33We're looking at Valmos Carlitos.
07:34I think of those outside three, Alexa,
07:36I might give him a little bit of a look.
07:38His overall form isn't bad and he's faced softer company,
07:41but if you eliminate that grass race,
07:44the rest of the races really make sense
07:46on the 12 Valmos Carlitos.
07:48And then we see Magnitude,
07:49the number 13 rounding out the field.
07:51Again, he's a horse who you could probably eliminate
07:54that race on the sloppy track
07:56and the rest of the form makes sense.
07:58So big field, they're gonna have to improve a little bit,
08:01but a couple to the outside that maybe you could use
08:03in the bottom of exotics.
08:05Let's move to selections here.
08:06Alexa, what are you gonna do with this one?
08:09I have American Promise on the front at 12 to one
08:12followed by East Avenue and Built.
08:15I put Built on top.
08:16I just think the timing is perfect for him.
08:18I have Built, East Avenue,
08:20and then I think you can find some value underneath
08:22with the horse like Render Judgment,
08:24maybe the 12 to the outside.

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