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00:00Only one Monday night football game to end out week number five after two straight weeks of two games in a doubleheader
00:06To end out a week in the national football league the Chiefs back in prime time
00:11Is this their fourth prime time game in five weeks for Kansas City opening out of the year week?
00:19number two that was
00:22Prime time as well right now week number two was against Cincinnati week three as I'm trying to do this right now
00:28Sunday night football against Atlanta three prime time games in five weeks. I got it all just took me a minute
00:35Kansas City in prime time again on what will be a big sports day in KC
00:39Of course the Royals on the road against the Yankees the Chiefs a five and a half point favorite at home
00:46Against the Saints KC one of two teams that ended out the opening month at a perfect four and Oh mark trying to stay pace
00:52With the Vikings at five and Oh DRS
00:56I said to you earlier during one of the commercial breaks and this Monday night football game a difficult one
01:02To handicap with the Chiefs lay in five and a hunk of the total at forty three and a half
01:07How do you begin to break it down?
01:09Yeah, it's simple. It seems simple to me
01:11Like you always expect the Kansas City Chiefs been to win their football game because it's Andy Reed
01:15It's passed from homes and tonight. It's an arrowhead and quite frankly look at the record
01:18All they've done is won their football games
01:20But now you say what are you gonna get out of New Orleans first two games of the season crack the Panthers crack the Cowboys
01:26But then you have two straight losses
01:27But those losses 15 to 12 against the Eagles where it was a late game lead you gave up on that Dallas got it long
01:34Play down the field and then an interception
01:36Then you take a look at the Falcons game correctly from a like a 58 yarder by young way to which lifts them in that game
01:41And he said, okay, we lost two back-to-back bone-crushing scenarios
01:45Now we're gonna take on the Chiefs who theoretically with their offense shouldn't be able to run away with us
01:50So just to start the conversation off
01:51I look at the five and a half points and I say to myself
01:53I'm gonna take the five and a half points and as you brought up with some of the
01:56Statistics in betting so far to open the season in the NFL boy five and a half is that sweet spot?
02:01We should just be left and right taking those five and a half point dogs or more
02:05Yeah, absolutely. So 19 four and one against the spread underdogs of five and a half points or greater
02:1313
02:14Outright wins the Saints have seen that already this year
02:18New Orleans has been very good both of the five and a half point dogs are greater on the Sunday slate one outright
02:24Arizona by getting more than a touchdown in Santa Clara the Giants a six and a half point dog in
02:31Seattle DRS in the last two years, Kansas City has been booked as a favorite 21 times
02:36That shouldn't be overly surprising knowing the Chiefs 12 8 and 1
02:42Against the number there was always kind of a critique of my homes and read in their era together as a favorite
02:50Hey, they're gonna win football games. Nobody better in the NFL than Kansas City, but they're not great covering numbers
02:57That has started to change in the first four years
03:02That Patrick Mahomes has been the starting quarterback or actually make that five seasons from the beginning of 2018 through
03:102022 the Chiefs were 40 and as I do the quick math here in these spots 40 41 and
03:183 against the number as a favorite less than a 50% cover percentage last two years
03:2512 8 and 1 ATS Kansas City this season booked as a favorite in all
03:31five or all four games previously they have covered in three of
03:36Four so the Chiefs are not a bad cover team where you say hey, they're laying five and a half
03:40But this game is gonna be closer
03:42Decided by four points or less Kansas City has been taking advantage when they have been the favorite at least so far this season
03:49They have and it's gonna be an interesting setup, too
03:52Because I like that Saints defense pretty solid in the secondary also to athletic linebackers
03:56Which combat going up against Travis Kelsey the one thing that we know about the Chiefs that they struggle with and quite frankly
04:02It's really been a musical chairs at right and left tack over the past couple years trying to find that match
04:07Morris and Taylor they have been that good this season and you got a pretty good couple pass rushes coming from that Saints defense
04:12But this is going to be game of why we think Andy Reed is probably the best coach in the NFL right now
04:17If not, you know rivaling Bill Belichick, maybe when it's all said and done
04:21It's his ability to scheme his players open because on a week-to-week basis
04:25We question about do they have enough talent and it seems on a week-to-week basis
04:28We're seeing less and less talent Travis Kelsey finally woke up last week. Is that going to continue?
04:33But also don't we know the Saints know that Travis Kelsey is gonna be that linchpin
04:37Watson Smith Schuster worthy who's stepping up and now you're down to a Kareem hunt. Hopefully
04:44Excuse me can resurrect his career. Yeah, this is a tough one here and it's it says again Donnie
04:50What did you say in the offseason?
04:51Don't care who's on the Chiefs as long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback. They'll win football games
04:56They might win that game tonight, but I don't think they cover. I'm with the Saints
05:00The Saints are a perfect 2-0 against the spread as a dog
05:04They went out right as a six and a half point underdog
05:07plastering the Cowboys in week two at the star and although they coughed one up last week against the Falcons who won without
05:15Scoring an offensive touchdown New Orleans did cover our three starts with more Monday Night Football next
05:21Welcome to our number three our third and final live right here on a Monday on the early line on sports grid
05:28He is Donnie right side. I am Ben Stevens so much to get you here in this third and final hour
05:34We've got a doubleheader of October baseball in the American League both
05:38Division series will see a game to first in Cleveland where the Guardians are a home dog
05:44Against Terrence schubel and the Tigers and the Yankees look to cement a spot
05:49Almost in the American League championship series if they can take a commanding 2-0 lead
05:55Against the Kansas City Royals speaking of KC the Chiefs in action in KC mode tonight on Monday Night Football
06:03hosting the New Orleans Saints
06:05Drs a lot to get to here in our third hour the properspective with Tom Vecchio the injury insight with dr
06:12David Chow again a lot to get to
06:15Yeah, a lot to get to here. Usually you're a lot to get to which means I'm supposed to step in
06:19We decided to take a long monologue. It's Monday. We're fired up man. We do got all that too. Let's get to it
06:25Yeah, let's go. Yeah, we we certainly will the IRS
06:28You know
06:28We are keeping track of all of our fade to public polls
06:31Throughout this year when there has been a question about a best bet whether it's a moneyline best bet for a doubleheader on Monday
06:39Night football or just for an individual game the last time we asked the public
06:43Hey, what's the best bet Thursday night football? The Bucs has a slight underdog in
06:48Atlanta the public went with Tampa
06:50Of course the game goes to overtime the Falcons win by six and cover
06:55So the public now three and four in their best bets. Can they bounce back tonight in Kansas City?
07:02What's the best bet for Monday night football between the Chiefs and the Saints you tell us and fade the public?
07:09At
07:15Sports create on Twitter DRS. What is that best bet for MNF?
07:19Is it the Chiefs lay in five and a half at home New Orleans as the road underdog?
07:24Getting five and a hook over forty three and a half
07:27Under the total can't really fault the public for looking at New Orleans
07:32Not only two and O against the spread as an underdog so far this season
07:36But we have detailed it many times underdogs of five and a half points or greater
07:40It has been their year in the National Football League
07:43So more than 43% say in the Saints getting five and a half. That's the way to look tonight
07:49Yeah, Saints probably better on the offensive line probably better wide receiver probably better running back
07:54Maybe even better overall as a defense, but the one thing they don't have is patchable homes
07:58But I do agree with the public the public coming in here Saints plus five and a half with 43% of the vote
08:03That's the way I went here. I just think we're in that no-man's land of spreads where yes
08:08The Kansas City Chiefs probably should win this football game
08:11But also the Chiefs mo to not really be able to pull away because I don't think they have enough explosive plays
08:16The only way tonight Ben for me that keeps you from a Saints cover is if you're screaming at your TV gone
08:23Come on, Derek are you can't throw that pass as long as he gives you a decent performance
08:28You're gonna be in it all the way through and yes
08:30Maybe the Chiefs have the ball last in a tie game and sure they'll probably be able to get down the field because that's what
08:35Patrick Mahomes and Andy redo. I'm taking the five and a half. I'm agreeing with the public today on that
08:41Again, New Orleans 2 and 0 against the number as an underdog this year five and a half point dogs are greater in
08:472024 throughout the week five Sunday slate
08:5119-4 and 1 against the spread
08:5413 of those 19 covers and outright victory including both of the five-and-a-half point dogs or greater
09:00So far in week number five the Cardinals winning outright getting seven and a half points in
09:06Santa Clara against the 49ers the Giants winning outright getting six and a half points in the Northwest
09:12against the Seahawks
09:14Yesterday the Saints have already factored in to that five and a half point dog or greater equation this year
09:21They were getting six and a half in Dallas week. Number two. They hammered the Cowboys winning that football game
09:2744 to 19 the Chiefs the RS off to a perfect 4 and 0 start and they've been booked as a
09:34Favorite in all four they have covered in three of those four games
09:39I'm fascinated by the total New Orleans over in three of four
09:43Casey well under in its last two having scored less than 40 combined points in the last two weeks
09:50Drs. These were two heavily skewed under teams a year ago, New Orleans 11 of 17 games in the regular season
09:57KC 14 of 21 on their way to winning a second consecutive
10:02Super Bowl if you did the Saints do cover as a five and a half point dog tonight
10:07Is it because both offenses are going back and forth is in an uglier game that stays under 43 and a half
10:13Yeah, here's what you're gonna have to look at right?
10:16Sometimes it just say it's Taysom Hill gonna play for the Saints because if he does that offense is unstoppable if we can't go with
10:21That rib injury then maybe they're not but also
10:24Back in fourth year the Saints can score with you
10:27Hear me out one of trying to say but I don't think the Kansas City Chiefs mo anymore the Tyree kill years
10:32Like hey, man, you go into Kansas City, Ben
10:34You better not punt the football which means on every fourth and short you have to go because you know
10:39Kansas City is gonna press you on that next drive
10:41So I look at that 43 and a half and say to myself
10:44I think this stays under the total because I don't think the game situations will dictate a lot of big plays both ways
10:51I love Steve Spagnola's defensive coordinator
10:53Maybe the defense right now is the MVP of the Kansas City Chiefs
10:56Even though you have Patrick Wilhelms and Andy Reid on offense
10:59But you need players to make those explosive plays happen
11:02And if we do know from the New Orleans Saints defense that again
11:05Travis Kelsey is gonna be your main product there on offense take him away and say make a rookie wide receiver beat me up and
11:12And Kareem hunt trying to resurrect his career those weapons aren't there
11:15So we're not saying that they can't get to let you say 45 or 50 points
11:19I don't think the game mo starts off as let's just throw it all over the place and see what happens
11:24I think measured approaches from both sides with quality defenses bring the score a little bit lower
11:29Well, there's not gonna be a factor tonight though. That's 65 degrees to kick off light winds here. No precipitation
11:34So we'll get a pretty clean night arrowhead, which usually would mean fireworks on the field. I don't think we get there tonight
11:39It's a big game for both sides
11:41The Saints can't afford to drop below 500 and if you are Kansas City
11:44You want to make sure you stay with that pristine record?
11:47Which again equates to me in a close game, which I'll take the Saints
11:50But if we're just looking at that total perspective here Ben, I'm not really excited to take the over tonight in prime time
11:56The public looking at the over more of the votes on that than the under or even Casey
12:02Covering as a five and a half point favorite in the RS. It makes sense, New Orleans over in three of four
12:09They were the best offense in the NFL through the opening two weeks of the year
12:12They even went over in a game last week that featured 50 total points and Atlanta did not score an offensive
12:19Touchdown the Chiefs again under in its last two as we saw last year
12:23The offense wasn't great was good enough in the playoffs for Kansas City
12:29Good enough all relative when you win a Super Bowl. Everything is good. The defense though was great under Steve
12:35Spagnuolo when we look at the quarterbacks as we compare them tonight Derek Carr sensational in the opening two weeks of
12:43This season he has been over his passing yards prop twice never more than 250
12:48Donnie five touchdowns to only a single INT in weeks one and two one touchdown to two
12:55Interceptions in the last two weeks two losses for the Saints Patrick Mahomes by his own standards has not been great
13:02By his own admission, he needs to be better an interception in all four games six touchdowns to five
13:09I had T's this year
13:10He has gone over to 30 and a half in both week one and week four
13:14But it hasn't been MVP Mahomes to start this year for Casey
13:19No, it hasn't and maybe we'll get back to that form
13:22But I don't know how much of that form is going to be like, hey, let me throw 50 touchdowns in a season
13:26That's not going to be there
13:27The one thing we always know is Andy Reid is a wonderful offensive coordinator in scheming players open
13:32But usually scheming very good players to get open. We might still think Travis Kelsey is very good
13:37But outside of last week, it looks like he's on his last legs in the NFL
13:40And again, Zed you're worthy was a quality pick at wide receiver saying wow the rich only get richer
13:45Yeah
13:46Because he was supposed to be with Marquise Brown and also a healthy Rishi rice and also a healthy Travis Kelsey out there
13:51Which now looks like you're only getting really one of those players anticipated and it turns out to be a rookie
13:57Those are the issues which means it's much more on Patrick Mahomes to make that perfect play that perfect throw at the right time
14:04Which we know he can do but there's not many bailout plays like oh my goodness
14:08It's starting a Travis Kelsey is wide open every single play. We haven't seen that this year yet
14:13Seven grabs for 89 yards last week for Travis Kelsey
14:16There was a lot of conversation in the opening three weeks despite the wins for Casey did Travis Kelsey still?
14:23Have it he only had seven grabs for 69 yards in three games
14:27He equaled the receptions and had more yardage last week in week four on a day like today in early October
14:34It's where the jack-of-all-trades comes through in a big spot
14:38It's sports grids Tom Vecchio here with the prop perspective on this Monday on the early line Monday night football in Kansas City
14:46It's the Chiefs and the Saints and a doubleheader of American League division series action in
14:53Playoff baseball in New York
14:55It's the Yankees and another team from Casey and the Royals and it starts a little bit after 4 p.m
15:01Eastern Time in Cleveland the Guardians and the Tigers Vecchio. We appreciate your perspective on everything here on this Monday
15:09Yeah, I am ready to roll super interesting game tonight
15:12What will the Chiefs offense look like without rice who's gonna step up a couple baseball games to get to?
15:19NHL opening night tomorrow or should say mid-afternoon. Let's get to it
15:24But I thought didn't they they started in Prague?
15:28But the rest of the season starts tomorrow. Ah
15:31That sounds like a great great scheduling job by the National Hockey League. All right, Vecchio
15:37Let's talk about Monday night football five and a half point spread in favor of the Chiefs at home in KC
15:43inside Arrowhead total 43 and a half
15:46We always start with what the numbers of the expected outcome is going to be and how it informs our game handicap
15:53So what are the numbers telling you about Monday night to end out week number five?
15:58A lot of questions about the offense overall
16:01We know Casey is a difficult place to play overall
16:03The Saints got off to this flying start first to be kind of came crashing back down to earth over the last two
16:10Kansas City Dave looked okay this year like Mahomes isn't putting up like amazingly
16:14Flashy numbers and now their offense is at the weakest. It's been really at any point over the past two years
16:20So, you know to me this look like a bit of a grinded out game for both of these teams
16:25I think the defense's should step up
16:27I do think that there can be some strong takeaways from the Kansas City offense of
16:32What we are going to see from them moving forward
16:34We did see a big game from Travis Kelsey in their most recent outing
16:37But who is going to be that number two option behind him?
16:40It's gonna be safe
16:40You're worthy a player that I've spoken about, you know since opening night a couple weeks on that Thursday
16:44I've been very high on him
16:45But I also my eye on another wide receiver, which will certainly get to you
16:48So I think this game has a lot to take away from in terms of projecting forward for especially the Kansas City offense
16:54Yeah, that's always a tough part Tom to write because get the new players as Kareem hunt could be that bell cow
16:59Can you scheme Kelsey open and who is gonna step up at that wide receiver position?
17:02But let's focus on the quarterbacks here Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr on the fan blue sports book today as it sits right now
17:08But over two thirty and a half for Patrick Mahomes passing yards Derek Carr at two eleven and a half and the touchdown price is
17:14Very advantageous here if they're gonna throw a few Patrick Mahomes over one and a half plus 100
17:19You don't see that often and Derek Carr to throw two touchdown passes. That's a plus 205 from the quarterback position Tom
17:26What's the expectations tonight?
17:28The expectations are pretty modest, you know, we've seen car struggle at playing at Kansas City throughout his career
17:34I've seen when he's with the Raiders
17:35I don't like buying into trends too much
17:37But these numbers are pretty modest like you said and we rarely get plus money on him a Holmes touchdown prop
17:43And I think that gives us a very modest offensive expectation overall of what we should be seeing
17:48So I'm not expecting this game to fly over. I think we could be in for a 24 20 kind of victory
17:54I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs kind of, you know
17:56Eek it out at the end as they as they tend to do they don't end up covering they come away with the win
18:02I'm not gonna say sloppy game, but I'm gonna say it temper your expectations for tonight is the best way to put it
18:09KC a favorite in all four games, of course
18:12Not only for no straight up but three and one against the spread New Orleans
18:15Perfect to an OATS as an underdog so far this season so Becky
18:21Let's talk now from the quarterbacks to the backs Alvin Kamara has been great this year for New Orleans at least a hundred and five
18:28Scrimmage yards in all four games six total touchdowns for the Saints
18:33We thought it might be Carson Steele
18:36Maybe some Ajay P Ryan now, it's Kareem hunt back with his former team in performing very well
18:43Casey's leading rusher 69 yards on the ground a week ago
18:47What do you expect out of the offensive output for both a K and Kareem hunt tonight?
18:52Well, I expect it to be big on both sides, you know coming to this game
18:56I'm thinking dude do the Saints want to turn this game into a bit of a shootout
18:59Do they trust car to sling the ball 35 times going up against the Chiefs defense, especially the secondary
19:05Which I I'm very high and I think they actually bring good pressure again a place that he has struggled
19:09So I'm turning to Kamara as a very very solid option
19:12I think hunt is that key option for the Chiefs offense again?
19:16As you said 69 yards last week on 14 carries a 45 some snaps ahead of Carson Steelers at 40%
19:21This is where I'm expecting the focal point of their offense to start from and then the play action will open things up for
19:27Kelsey maybe for Justin Watson who will get to in a second
19:30But I think Kareem hunt should be that key player. Also if the Chiefs get out ahead they are great at bringing pressure
19:36They're high in the league when it comes to quarterback hurries quarterback knockdowns blitz, right?
19:41All those things I think it should turn into easy
19:43Dumpdowns and drop-offs for Korea for Kamara, which should open up his receiving yards props
19:49Yeah, Kareem hunt look pretty good and it's returned back to the football field
19:53We'll see if that continues Senate
19:54But if we are take a look at some of those receiving props the two top dogs tonight from each team is Travis Kelsey of
19:58The Chiefs at 58 and a half receiving yards crystal lave at 59 and a half receiving yards and you get a lot of mixed
20:05Mods there below which means you can maybe pinpoint a guy and target a guy that can really step up Tom
20:10Receiving props. What are we looking at?
20:12Well for crystal lava, he should be lined up against Trent McDuffie, which has me concerned overall
20:17Rashid Shahid is that downfield option for the Saints and he has a massive a dot
20:22He can get that reception prop done in like literally wanted to catches
20:25So that's just interesting as a as a game plan thing
20:29If they're if they do fall behind they can take those deep shots or she said you can break it off
20:33Justin Watson is my favorite tonight over 24 and a half yards for Justin Watson this year
20:37He leads the team with an 11.1 a dot 14.2 air yard share last year. His a doubt was up at 17.5
20:4423% air yard share his the third most snaps among wide receivers
20:47That's now second without rights last year was also third the Saints coming into week five
20:52They've allowed the ninth most receiving yards wide receivers up at 654 and Watson now leads wide receivers with 1.2
20:59Yards per route run so over 24 and a half yards for Watson
21:02Listen if Kelsey's number one and they're gonna be potentially skimming against him
21:06Watson is the clear number two. I can get over this number very easily tonight
21:10You saw Tom's top props for this Monday night football game
21:14But just again so you can get that and make sure you got the pitch locked and loaded
21:19For this matchup Derek Carr under 31 and a half pass attempts Kareem Hunt over 42 and a half rushing yards
21:26Justin Watson now that second fiddle perhaps behind Travis Kelsey over 24 and a half
21:33Receiving yards Vecchio. You are the jack-of-all-trades
21:36So now let's go to the diamond in
21:38October a doubleheader of game twos in each of our American League division series
21:43We start in the Bronx inside Yankee Stadium
21:46The Yankees greater than a dollar and a half favorite against the Royals looking to take that commanding
21:5120 series lead in the best of five
21:54ALDS but Cole Ragan's gets the start for KC
21:58Six innings of shutout work only allowing for base knots last week in Baltimore
22:03How do you see game to play it out between the pinstripes and the Royals?
22:07Well, the biggest question for Reagan's is his calf or you know dealing with the the issue that he got pulled out a little bit
22:14Early, so I just want to double check on that as long as thing at five and a half
22:17The over was juiced on his strikeout prop
22:19Frankly when it comes to this game the most interesting prop that I think would be Sal Perez to record an RBI
22:25Plus 140 or thereabout, you know
22:27We saw all of their production or the majority of the production from Kansas City come from the bottom portion of their lineup
22:33Bobby Witt was pretty quiet Perez was pretty quiet when it comes to the RBI
22:36So I'm expecting that to flip I will always buy into Perez going up against a lefty and I know Donnie you spoke about
22:44The splits versus lefties in the previous segment, but Perez is too good of a hitter
22:48And they mentioned it in the broadcast in the most recent game
22:50He does not strike out a lot and he does not walk a lot because he puts the ball in play
22:54So Massey and Witt getting on base
22:57Garcia potentially getting on base leaves him in a spot for potential a fly ball a sack fly can cashless an RBI prop
23:02He doesn't even need to have a hit
23:04hmm
23:06So that's where things stand back, you know for the game up in the Bronx now
23:10Let's move quickly to Cleveland the Tigers send out Terrence Google and because of it Detroit a road money line favorite
23:18Against the Guardians wins game two in the land. I
23:21Think the Tigers do take this one. I've been high in school the entire season
23:26I wish I had a Cy Young future on him, but I'm certainly taking my believe
23:30His prop is still sitting at five half or six and a half in terms of a strikeouts
23:34I might take a little bit of a sprinkle on seven plus he has to be there
23:37He has to stem this
23:39Flood that they had especially with their bullpen getting kind of worked over in that first game
23:43They need him out there for a lot of endings
23:46Tom Vecchio, we appreciate the time as always we get you set for this Monday
23:51Let's get you set for Monday night football in Kansas City
23:56The Chiefs play host to the New Orleans Saints five and a half point spread in favor of KC
24:01Total stands at 43 and a hook DRS
24:04We have talked about this often five and a half point underdogs or greater so far in the NFL season
24:1019
24:114 and 1 against the spread including the only two spots where that was the case in week 5
24:19previously
24:20Yesterday the Cardinals went outright getting seven and a half on the road
24:24The Giants went outright as a six and a half point road dog in Seattle
24:29So of those 19 covers 13 outright wins as well
24:33Well, the Saints continue the trend so far in 2024. I
24:38Think they will I do like you can see this game
24:41And if you're just playing it to the number right 23 to 20 right around that total number right around that spread which is coming
24:46In at five and a half
24:47I think that's legitimate where maybe the last team standing is the last team with the football
24:51Driving down the field to kick a field goal
24:53And again, we're not worried all that much about weather conditions 65 degrees
24:57No real winds to worry about and also precipitation in the forecast
25:01So I think we'll get a pretty clean effort
25:02But the question is going to be is how do we actually get to the finish line and for me?
25:07It's the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm worried about is it Kareem hunt?
25:10Did he maybe have that little adrenaline rush in his first game back and then settles back into reality where he just got brought back?
25:15Into football can save you're worthy
25:17Even though he was drafted high really be that number one that the Kansas City Chiefs can lean on the one thing we do like
25:23Is you are planning on that?
25:25The reason I say that is sometimes you get into games where your wide receiver gets hurt where the game plans already in it's hard
25:30To adjust on the fly now coming into the game, you know, we see rice. Is it going to be there?
25:35So Travis Kelsey, how are we getting him open save your worthy? How are we getting him open Juju Smith Schuster?
25:39Can he enter in to the game plan once again?
25:41And is it going to be more of uptempo as Jolita would say tempo tempo tempo or we gonna slow this game down and play?
25:48It more to the under because the win is what really matters at this point. That's what I'm trying to gauge right now
25:53But I do believe keep it simple here. We know Travis Kelsey is gonna be schemed open
25:58I don't care if the Saints know he's going to be open Xavier worthy is not just gonna be a guy that's gonna run
26:02You know 70-yard streak patterns a whole game just to try to distract the defense. He's gonna be involved in the game plan
26:07Those are the two guys I'm going after because the last thing you want to do is say to yourself
26:11Hey, you know what? I'm gonna go after Juju Smith Schuster's 16 and a half only to him have one target and no catches tonight
26:19Yeah, it is a really interesting game
26:21I think for the prop perspective as well before we get even further into the props
26:26Total is interesting 43 and a half the Saints over in three of four so far this year
26:31One of the heavier under teams a year ago under in 11 of 17
26:36The Chiefs are 4-0, but it hasn't been Mahomes putting up 38 points for a game
26:42In fact, he's been rather mediocre to six touchdowns to only five
26:46Interceptions the Chiefs have been well under in each of their past two games
26:51Despite covering in three of four booked as a favorite in all four games this year
26:57So DRS 143 and a half is at stake tonight a primetime game
27:02Another under or might we see some points on the board tonight at Arrowhead?
27:07I know it's so tough to say an under in Kansas City when you're not talking about licking the gas 52 and a half 53
27:13And a half it's 43 and a half
27:14So we just put those simple numbers as I said
27:16Both of these teams getting around 20 points puts you in the ballpark
27:19You can see that happening, but I don't know if that's going to be the case because I understand this Patrick Mahomes
27:25He should be able to win this football game just on his talent alone and Andy Reed calling the plays
27:29But you still have to have those explosive plays downfield
27:32If you know from a Saints perspective that on the outside Xavier worthy's really the only deep threat
27:37You roll a safety over coverage
27:38You add an extra linebacker the Saints have some that talented and athletic linebackers to try to slow down Kelsey
27:43I just don't see where the big plays come from and also Kansas City on defense
27:48They're a pretty good defensive unity and Steve Spagnuolo has those guys cracking
27:52I trained with the under in this game now grant usually I'm just a prop player gonna take some overs and I'm hoping offense
27:58But I don't know if we see that 50-point game tonight
28:01It just seems like a slower tempo to me will be as low as the Philadelphia Eagles played the New Orleans Saints
28:06No, it's not gonna be that low, but it's gonna be in that 20 to 17 23 to 20 type range for me
28:12When you saw the quarterback comparison as well both QB's have gone over their prop twice this year
28:19But neither has been overly
28:22Prolific car is not thrown for more than 250 in any of the four games
28:26But Holmes over that number in week one and week four
28:30I mentioned in six touchdowns to five interceptions
28:33Patrick Mahomes has thrown a pick and all four games this year Derek Corrin is opening to New Orleans
28:39Victorious and offensive juggernaut five touchdowns to only a single
28:43Interception last two weeks only a single touchdown to two INTs both quarterbacks
28:49heavily juiced to throw a pick tonight minus 140 for Mahomes minus
28:55152 for Derek Carr the running backs interesting as well again. What do we see out of?
29:03Kareem, huh? What do we see out of Alvin Kamara who has been?
29:07Sensational this year expected DRS to post about a hundred scrimmage yards tonight for New Orleans offense
29:14He has had at least a hundred and five scrimmage yards and all four games so far for the Saints
29:19Yeah, we'll take some hill being out. He's gonna be the touchdown guy, which means you get inside the five-yard line
29:24He will get those calories, but also you're right
29:26If the defenses are good and the play is a little bit slower
29:29You're gonna take a lot more of those check downs if you can't go to lava open deeper
29:33Let's just say Rasheed Shaheed. So I am looking forward to a big night for Kamara
29:36Let's just say this Ben you wake up tomorrow morning and read the press clippings without seeing the final score
29:41Kamara had 78 total yards on the ground and receiving and then also did not score a touchdown
29:47There's no way the Saints can win this ballgame
29:49So there is that I always like to take that appeal to say if you're looking for the Saints
29:52I think they can hang around they're not hanging around unless Kamara has a very good night
29:57He doesn't have to run for 150 yards
29:59But get up somewhere around a hundred total yards and a touchdown that'll keep them in the ballgame
30:03And I do think Kamara should be that lead dog for the Saints tonight
30:0769 yards for Kareem hunt on the ground last week
30:11So my JP Ryan though the game winning touchdown for KC in the fourth quarter on the ground last week in
30:18La DRS, you mentioned Travis Kelsey. You mentioned the other side for New Orleans
30:22Just want to stress this seven grabs for Kelsey last week on nine targets for 89 yards more yards last week
30:29Then in the first three weeks combined by a 20 yard
30:34Difference that's how good Kelsey was in week four and some of the questions in the opening
30:40Three if you had a favorite prop bet tonight before you go, what would it be? I?
30:45Would probably say if we're trying to scan it would still be I don't know
30:49It's probably Kamara. It's Kamara to the backfield at 33 and a half years
30:53I think the check downs are going to be there
30:54That's one or two screens that could pick up 15 or 20 yards and make it happen
30:58The one thing I'm not doing tonight Ben
30:59I'm not going way down there and saying give me Noah Gray for all the marbles at 19 and a half stick with what you
31:05know, I've been Kamara
31:07Drs. Enjoy the money line. We'll talk Thursday or on the early line up next