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00:00DRS exactly two weeks from today is July 17th. We are going to have 12 teams around the National Football League
00:08already sending their rookies to training camp. By that date, exactly two weeks out.
00:15So let's talk about the National Football League. As we said, a small peek into the summer window
00:22to get you ready for a new football year. Over this holiday weekend, college football.
00:27Today, a summer school check-in. Pro football today, a National Football League refresher
00:33to get you set for the season. And right now, there are co-favorites to win Super Bowl 59.
00:40The Chiefs and the 49ers, the two teams that squared off in Super Bowl 58.
00:466-1 price on both KC and Sam Fran. The Ravens, the only other team at less than 10-1, plus 9.50.
00:54Baltimore is setting their rooks bright and early, July 13th, as they will open up the season
01:00about two months from today, on Thursday, September 5th, in the AFC title game rematch in Arrowhead
01:06against KC.
01:08Yeah, we're getting close here. And here's how we take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook right now
01:12and say to ourselves, okay, why do we have the Chiefs at a 6-1 price, and why do we have the 49ers
01:16at a 6-1 price? Well, they just played last year, and most of those players are coming back
01:20and being healthy. But let's remove the 49ers right now, Ben, from the equation.
01:24I just want to separate it and take a look about the Kansas City Chiefs and how we talked about them
01:28last year. Wasn't last year the year that you were supposed to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs?
01:32And we said to ourselves, oh my goodness, finally, the AFC championship game is not going to be played
01:37in Arrowhead, where it's an automatic victory for the Chiefs. They're going to have to earn this,
01:41and quite frankly, this isn't their most talented team. So how did we approach getting into the playoffs?
01:46Well, you have the ice ball in Kansas City in the divisional round, right, or excuse me,
01:50in the wild-card round, where they beat the Miami Dolphins. Freezing cold conditions, people getting
01:54frostbite all over the place. Good win for the Chiefs, can't take it away. But I said to myself,
01:58love this. They're going on the road to Buffalo. They have no shot at this one.
02:02Buffalo's going to handle their business. Somehow, the Kansas City Chiefs won that game.
02:06Ah, but it's okay, Ben. They're going to play on the road against Baltimore. They don't have a shot.
02:10Because you know what Baltimore's going to do? Just line up and pound the rock, and there's nothing
02:14the Chiefs can do about it. So the Ravens go, you know what, let's go air Coryell 1985,
02:18and let's get beat here. So you say, wow, that's amazing. Okay, now we get to the Super Bowl
02:22with the Kansas City Chiefs, going against the immovable object, the San Francisco 49ers.
02:27They beat the 49ers also, and being down double digits in that game.
02:31So I say, why aren't the Chiefs, at the FanDuel Sportsbook today, a minus 600 price?
02:36Because if you didn't beat them last year, with that team and that schedule they had to go through,
02:41I don't know who's beating them. If you tell me right now, Ben, at the end of the season,
02:45in week number 17, you're still going to be healthy with Patrick Mahomes.
02:48They're going to win the Super Bowl. Read their check. Mahomes, their check.
02:52I don't need to see anything else.
02:55It's hard to argue that. Patrick Mahomes has been the starting quarterback in Kansas City
03:00for the last six NFL seasons. They have at least reached the AFC Championship game
03:05in all of six of those years. They have gone over their win total of 11 and a half
03:10in five of the six, the only under last year, and they finished 11 and six.
03:15They have won four, or they have won three of the last five Super Bowls.
03:19They have played in four of the last five big games on Super Bowl Sunday.
03:25And there was a time, earlier this offseason, before some maneuvering in the market
03:30around the Bengals price, really after Tee Higgins decided to sign the franchise tag tender,
03:35that San Francisco was 50 cents in front of Kansas City as a solo favorite,
03:41despite the fact the 49ers have lost two Super Bowls to Kansas City in the last half decade.
03:48So I'm going to ask you it this way, DRS.
03:50Is the price on Kansas City to win Super Bowl 59 at 6-1,
03:54or the price for the Chiefs to win the AFC Championship once again at plus 340, bettable?
04:00Would you bet that wager right here, right now, and hold on to it all the way until January of 2025?
04:07It's a lot of emotion speaking on my end of it right now, but yeah, I would just take it both.
04:12Because, like, last year was the year they weren't supposed to do anything.
04:15Oh, it's clear. They don't have any widers, and it didn't matter.
04:18Like, nothing mattered at the end. They were lined up, and again, you see this time and time again.
04:22You can go back to the previous year, Ben, where the Philadelphia Eagles were in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
04:26They were the far better team, the Eagles, and they had to leave that game, and they still couldn't win.
04:29And Patrick Holmes was on one leg in that Super Bowl.
04:33So when I just take a look at how good these teams are, and also you say, well, why don't you just take them to win the AFC
04:37as opposed to the Super Bowl, because you're going to run up against the 49ers.
04:40Well, you're giving Andy Reid two weeks to prepare in the Super Bowl.
04:43That's when he's at his best at that point. I'll take both right here.
04:46And as I say again, it is a lot of emotion speaking based on what I saw last year.
04:50But the fact that they went and ran that gauntlet at the end of the year, they beat the Bills,
04:55they beat the Ravens, and the 49ers in succession there with a team that I thought wasn't all that talented.
05:01Who knows what they're going to do again this year.
05:04And don't forget, those were road playoff games.
05:07That was the narrative around the Holmes. Could he win on the road?
05:11He certainly did last year and his third Lombardi trophy in his NFL career already.
05:17The Chiefs, by the way, minus 230 to win the AFC West, a division they have owned as the champs the last eight years.
05:24San Francisco minus 195 to win the NFC West.
05:28And that feels rather fitting as well.
05:30There is an argument to be made, Donny, that when you look at these two conferences,
05:34the AFC is so much more competitive than the NFC overall.
05:39It's just why the path for the 49ers is more favorable and why the odds are similar to a team that has won two consecutive Super Bowls.
05:47In the history of the National Football League,
05:50we have seen multiple winners of a Super Bowl in back to back years.
05:55We have never seen a team win three consecutive Lombardi trophies.
06:00Yeah, we have. And also keep an eye on those Ravens.
06:03Don't be surprised if they're again the number one overall seed in the AFC.
06:06But we know you don't win Super Bowls in the regular season.
06:09You win MVP's in the regular season.
06:11You just need the Ravens to step up.
06:13It was all on their plate last year because if they would have went to the Super Bowl,
06:16who would they have played? The 49ers who they already cracked earlier in that season on December 25th.
06:22Here we go. We'll talk more about the title odds and MVP odds next.
06:26Super Bowl 59 odds as we send you into your holiday weekend.
06:31Enjoy everything this Fourth of July weekend, Thursday into Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
06:37Soak up the summer, but know that football is getting closer and closer by the day.
06:44DRS, we looked at the Super Bowl 59 prices and there are three teams with three digits, 10 to 1 or less.
06:50The Chiefs and the Niners, they played each other in Super Bowl 58 out in Viva Las Vegas.
06:55The Ravens, who were the NFL's best team in the regular season a year ago at plus 950 with the rating MVP winner for the second time in his career, Lamar Jackson.
07:05Then you see the rest of the top 10.
07:08Seven teams mashed up in that group, separated by just six dollars from that group.
07:15Is there a name, a team, a price that you think is worth a wager?
07:21I mean, if we're looking from a Philadelphia Eagles perspective, the way they collapsed 14 to 1.
07:28Yeah, we'll start here because I was a couple of things running through my mind and the 14 to 1 guys right out here.
07:35I'm not all that high on the Philadelphia Eagles this season to win a championship.
07:39And as a fan, it's like, oh, that really hurts.
07:41Can they win one? Absolutely.
07:43But there's a couple of things that you do have to take out of the equation when you're trying to deal with teams outside of Kansas City.
07:47And let's just say San Francisco, you want to be there at the end.
07:50I think the Eagles have a chance to do that, but there are a lot of moving parts here.
07:53You have a new offense that's getting installed, at least probably 50 percent new verbiage going from last year to this year with a new offensive coordinator.
08:00Same thing with the defense here.
08:01And I love the fact that Vic Fangio is coming over from the Miami Dolphins because last year's Matt Patricia and Sean Desai, that certainly wasn't working out at all.
08:08So I like that. But again, you're going to have that learning curve.
08:11And it's hard to just erase where the Eagles had the best record in football last year and didn't even end up winning the division when it was all said and done.
08:18And they got hammered on the road against a average to below average to me, honestly, Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.
08:24And then you take a look at the Cincinnati Bengals at a 14 to 1 price.
08:27Hey, look at that. There's a ton of talent.
08:29But for me, there's a lot more question marks, again, going into the Cincinnati Bengals.
08:32Is Jamar Chase going to show up? Is T. Higgins actually happy with that contract?
08:36Is, you know, Joe Burrow had a good offseason because he couldn't really work out and throw the football all that much.
08:41And then it leads you to the Detroit Lions, who I do think are on the cusp of taking that next step.
08:45And then it's the Baltimore Ravens at a plus 950 price.
08:48I say to myself, I love the Ravens. I think they have a great regular season.
08:52But every time I turn them on in the playoffs, it's like, what are we actually doing?
08:56Is this Lamar Jackson? This is the guys on the regular season here.
08:59And for an offense that's supposed to be able to pound the football, why are we passing it?
09:03Way too many question marks pop up for me.
09:05But you are looking at the teams that are going to be on the rise.
09:08One team I do want to keep an eye on, to be honest with you, 15 to 1, it's the Buffalo Bills.
09:12I talk about this terminology. They were the it kids for a couple of years in the AFC, right?
09:16They're ready to take over the Kansas City Chiefs. Now is their year.
09:19Now they've sort of fallen off a little bit.
09:21And I don't mean by, like, record-wise or being able to make the playoffs, but just that star power.
09:25Like, Diggs moves on. You replace him with a rookie wide receiver.
09:28But I don't think that's going to change.
09:30I do think you're going to have a big season out of the Buffalo Bills.
09:33And if I'm looking at a team outside of 10 to 1, those are the type of teams, like the Bills,
09:38that I would focus on because I want a team just out of the spotlight,
09:41where we thought they would do something big the past couple years, didn't do it.
09:44And then you can come out of nowhere by saying you still have the quarterback,
09:47you still have quality wide receivers, you still have the semblance of a good defense here,
09:50and you can win that division here.
09:52So that's the way I line up with the Buffalo Bills.
09:54The 15 to 1 price makes some sense there.
09:56I would love to back my Eagles. I would love to take the Cincinnati Bengals.
09:59I would love to take the Lions. Just a little bit too many question marks here.
10:02I'd take a look at the Bills outside of that spotlight.
10:05Almost a contrarian thought there, DRS, for the Bills to move back in the odds
10:10after what seemed to be quite an uncertain offseason in western New York.
10:15Josh Allen remains, but who's around him in this Super Bowl window?
10:20It is that window closing in Buffalo.
10:23The Bills have won the AFC East each of the past four years,
10:27but they have only played in the AFC championship game once.
10:31That was four years ago.
10:33Three of the previous four years, they have been bounced from the postseason by Kansas City.
10:38Three of the previous four years, they have been bounced by the end of the divisional round.
10:43My Super Bowl prediction last year, champions of the AFC, Cincinnati,
10:47champions of the NFC, the Eagles.
10:50I think I'm going to have a very similar Super Bowl 59 prediction as I did to 58.
10:57Now let's go individual.
10:59Josh Allen, second best price to win NFL MVP at 8-1.
11:04Mahomes is the favorite at a 5-1 number, did not win it last year.
11:08Of course, that was Lamar Jackson at 14-1.
11:12C.J. Stroud in year number two, tied for the third best place at 10-1 with Joe Burrow.
11:19Who gets your attention in the individual race for the MVP hardware?
11:23C.J. Stroud is going to get a lot of attention, and rightfully so.
11:26I mean, you have 5-1 on Mahomes, 8-1 on Josh Allen,
11:29and you have 10-1 here tied with Joe Burrow in that third spot,
11:32which is pretty crazy for a rookie quarterback that had a sensational season
11:35that we're just automatically placing on that next pedestal.
11:38And he just might get there.
11:39That's a pretty good football team, and it's going to have a lot of people
11:41that want to give him the award as well.
11:44Do we want to give Patrick Mahomes the MVP?
11:46No, we're tired of seeing stuff like that.
11:48We always like the next thing.
11:49But again, Mahomes has a great season, C.J. does it, and Josh Allen doesn't.
11:52You get the picture.
11:53He would be able to win that award.
11:55But if I'm looking at C.J. Stroud, I think the guy is the limit.
11:58But again, I just told you that the Buffalo Bills can make a run to the Super Bowl,
12:03and that would mean that Josh Allen probably was the do-it-all kid once again.
12:07I still think they have a fine passing game, but he can use his legs.
12:11That 8-1 price does make sense.
12:13The one guy that always has great regular seasons, Lamar Jackson,
12:16at a 14-1 price, who says he can't win yet another MVP trophy at this point.
12:20But I do think it is wide open.
12:22If you can remove the Kansas City Chiefs from winning 13 to 14 games,
12:26everybody else becomes live.
12:28But if I say the guy that everybody's rooting for to win it,
12:32it probably feels like C.J. Stroud at this point.
12:34That should be a fun football team,
12:35and he should throw for close to 40 touchdowns this year.
12:38And they have the offense you would think to do it.
12:41There was times, DRS, that C.J. Stroud was in the MVP race last year
12:46in his rookie season as he ran away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
12:51A name that intrigues me, not sure I'm going to bet it,
12:54but a name that intrigues me with some optimism is Jordan Love,
12:5814-1 price alongside Lamar Jackson.
13:02We saw the Packers there in terms of their Super Bowl odds as well,
13:0610th best on the board at 19-1.
13:09If we get the Jordan Love that we saw in six of the final eight weeks
13:14of the regular season, in the playoff upset on the road at the start in Dallas,
13:19he will be in the MVP race.
13:21But I wonder when the contract comes for Jordan Love.
13:25There's a couple of QBs, DRS, that may be in the next few weeks
13:28leading up to training camp during this summer break around the NFL.
13:32When are they going to see the payday?
13:34Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Tua Tunga-Vailoa,
13:37and some wide receivers you mentioned as well, Jamar Chase,
13:41and also for the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb.
13:44We're just about two months away from the NFL season debut.
13:48Early look now.
13:49Live right here on this Wednesday on the Early Line on SportsGrid,
13:53just the day before Independence Day weekend.
13:57It's summer, but football is ever so close.
14:00We are just about two months away from the start of the NFL season,
14:05the day after the 4th of July.
14:07That's the 5th, exactly two months away from Thursday, September 5th,
14:12the NFL season debut in 2024 inside Arrowhead Stadium
14:17between the Chiefs and the Ravens.
14:19It is a rematch, of course, of the AFC championship game
14:23in the Charm City a year ago.
14:25The Chiefs were the underdog in that game.
14:28They won outright for their fourth AFC championship victory
14:32in the last five NFL seasons.
14:34And the questions around Lamar Jackson,
14:36not what he can do in the regular season,
14:38but his performances in the postseason arose once again.
14:42Just a 2-4 playoff record now for Lamar.
14:46In the opener in Arrowhead,
14:48KC opens on that flat number of three, a field goal.
14:5246-and-a-half is the over-under.
14:55It is the earliest line for week number one of this 2024 NFL campaign.
15:01If the Chiefs don't make a ton of mistakes,
15:03probably should they win their opening game this year?
15:05Probably so.
15:06But I do think it's an even line out there,
15:08basically giving the Kansas City Chiefs home field advantage
15:10with those three points and letting it play out.
15:12Total sits at 46-and-a-half.
15:14And let's just say we're all going to get warm weather
15:16and good conditions on opening night.
15:18I always love the way the Baltimore Ravens come into the regular season
15:21and one of the few teams here, Ben, we can agree on
15:23that take the preseason seriously,
15:26which puts them in a great mindset by the time they wake up,
15:29I should say, on that Thursday night, September 5th.
15:32I do expect the Ravens to give a great outlook.
15:34I'll probably take the plus three points at this point
15:36if we're angling towards that.
15:37I just think it's an even matchup here.
15:39I'll take the points opening night,
15:41and I do expect a great performance
15:42because the Ravens are usually great performers in the regular season.
15:46I mean, DRS, when you look at the numbers under John Harbaugh,
15:50who has been the head coach in Baltimore since 2008,
15:53that's now 16 seasons, year 17 on the horizon.
15:57It's a similar story for Pittsburgh and Baltimore,
16:00the two bitter rivals in the AFC North.
16:02The Steelers, a 62.2% cover percentage
16:06as an underdog in that span since 08.
16:09That was year two of the Mike Tomlin era,
16:11the debut year of John Harbaugh, 2008, 61.8% cover percentage,
16:1755-34-6 against the spread as an underdog in the last 16 years.
16:23Who could fault you taking that flat number of three at this moment?
16:27Line opened at two and a half in favor of Kansas City.
16:31We have already seen some movement.
16:34Now, Donnie, we looked at the Super Bowl 59 odds,
16:37and you said something on the Ravens
16:39that if they couldn't get past Kansas City a year ago,
16:43how are you going to bet them to do that this time around?
16:46They had home field advantage as the number one seed in the AFC,
16:50the best regular season record in the entirety of the NFL a year ago at 13-4.
16:56But you said you would expect the Ravens
16:58to probably be in contention for that top spot again.
17:02So you expect no hangover in Baltimore
17:05than looking at the Ravens' team win total of 10.5.
17:08Yeah, and they should be ramped up, too,
17:10because let's just take a look at that 10.5
17:12and also equate it to opening day.
17:14One thing I do love is I think we can all agree.
17:16For me, heading into that game last year in the playoffs was,
17:20boy, if they just stick to their game plan for Baltimore,
17:23they have such an advantage over Kansas City,
17:25and they didn't do that, which was so mind-boggling
17:27that I hope this offseason goes,
17:29you know what, guys, let's just bring our normal game plan
17:31into game number one and see what happens,
17:33and I think they'll win, which is so hard
17:35because sometimes dealing with Lamar Jackson
17:37on a week-to-week basis in the NFL
17:39when so many things are swirling around,
17:40so many different franchises, it's tough to get a hold of.
17:43But when you have that one singular focus
17:45with that one game on the week,
17:46you don't have to worry about the game after it
17:48to focus on Lamar Jackson.
17:49A lot of teams have done very well
17:50against Lamar Jackson in the playoffs.
17:52So I just take a look at week number one.
17:54Is there going to be a quarterback
17:55that's going to be faster on his feet?
17:57And I heard, you know, hey, Lamar Jackson
17:59lost a couple pounds here in the offseason.
18:01He's going to look like an absolute lightning bug
18:03out there in week number one.
18:04I expect a good performance.
18:05And again, the 10.5, even though that division
18:08is so tough from top to bottom,
18:10talking about the AFB North,
18:11I still think at the end of the day,
18:13they're the best team in that division,
18:15which in order to win that division,
18:16you're going to need to have 11 wins.
18:18That's a really good division.
18:19So I like their win total over,
18:21and I like them opening night here in the NFL.
18:23They are the favorites, are the flock,
18:26just a little bit in front of Cincinnati.
18:28The two fully healthy years for Joe Burrow
18:31in his four-year NFL career,
18:33not his rookie campaign or last year,
18:35where he has played at least 16 games.
18:37The Bengals have won the AFC North
18:39and reached at least the AFC title game.
18:42I like them in the AFC North in front of the Ravens,
18:45and they also have by far the easiest schedule.
18:48Our lead NFL analyst, Warren Sharp,
18:50does a great job on strength of schedule metrics
18:53for a new NFL year, taking in projected win total
18:57in all of the variants that affect betting odds,
18:59rest advantage, disadvantage, all that good stuff.
19:02Three of the four teams in the AFC North,
19:05Steelers, Ravens, Browns,
19:06three of the five hardest schedules in the NFL.
19:094TEL next.