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Transcript
00:00live right here on this Thursday on the early line on
00:06sports grid. It is time for that prop perspective and the
00:09jack of all trades is here that sports grids. Tom Vecchio for
00:13the start of week seven short week Thursday night football
00:16game in New Orleans between the Saints and the Broncos, a
00:20double header of October baseball in Queens and in
00:24Cleveland and of course some action on the ice as well.
00:27Vecchio as always. Thanks for being here. We appreciate the
00:30time. Of course. Thanks for having me. Yeah. An interesting
00:34game tonight. I guess is one way to put it for Thursday
00:37night football. Probably a lack of score. Two huge playoff
00:41games. You know as Kevin likes to say I'm in the mix. I'm in
00:44the mix like checks today. Let's go. Oh in the mix like
00:49checks today. That's a bar that Donny right side couldn't even
00:53come up with. That's good stuff that we appreciate the
00:56enthusiasm here on this Thursday. I know Donny wants to
01:00spit a beat so bad right now maybe at the end of this
01:04segment. Thursday night football in the big easy
01:07Vecchio. The Saints play host to the Broncos. There is the
01:10atmosphere of this Thursday night. Sean Payton returns to
01:14New Orleans. Will it be a warm welcome? There's also some of
01:18the unknown offensive woes and injuries for New Orleans. A
01:22rookie quarterback making his second career start. A rookie
01:26quarterback albeit who has been the starter all year for
01:29the Broncos but still a rookie quarterback. Two and a half
01:32point spread in favor of Denver. Low total at 36 and a
01:37half. What are the numbers telling you for Thursday night
01:39football? This could be an ugly game. Like this is the game
01:43that starts off punt punts. This is the game where we're
01:46going to be seeing out of 10-3, 7-3 at halftime. Give me
01:50injuries that the Saints have on offense. Missing Chris
01:53Alave. Missing Rashid Shahid. Their offense is certainly in a
01:57tough spot. We have a quarterback like you said with
01:59Spencer Rattler, a rookie making his second start. They're on a
02:01short week and they have to prepare with all backups. Now,
02:04you would like to say this is going to be a big Adam Kamara
02:07game. He touched the ball no less than 20 times combined.
02:10Rushing in and receiving. They get the ball and they try to
02:13keep things under control but I just don't see the Saints coming
02:16away with the win in this game. They're just so depleted on
02:18offense and while the Broncos ultimately I think you know in
02:21my mind are are like a really really average team overall.
02:24They got to be winning this game 10 times out of 10
02:27essentially. They're in a spot to compete for the wild card or
02:30one of the wild cards. I don't expect them to fully get there
02:32but this has to be a big Javante Williams game. Just take
02:35care of business on the road. Two rookie quarterbacks on a
02:39Thursday night. Limited preparation. Both are going to
02:41do this for the first time. It should definitely get
02:43interesting but we see that 36 and a half as a total and we
02:45roll it over to the quarterback props because when you have a
02:48low total, you do get some interesting numbers. Spencer
02:51Rattler, his passing prop number over 182 and a half.
02:54That's at a minus 110 price. Bo Nicks over 191 and a half. Also
02:58listed at minus 110. If you want them to throw a couple
03:01touchdowns, both listed at a half of a touchdown apiece.
03:04Heavily juiced Rattler minus 215 and then Nicks at a minus
03:08245. The expectations Tom tonight for these two
03:11quarterbacks. What are they? I think they're relatively low. I
03:14actually don't mind Spencer Rattler's number. He looked
03:17like decent last week. Granted, all things considered,
03:20they were like a pretty wild game against the box. 70 plus
03:23points but he was pretty solid last week. You know, some yards
03:25on the ground. So, I don't mind going to him especially if I
03:28anticipate Denver being out in front. His yards are not going
03:31to be consistent for any one player. You know, Donnie, you
03:34mentioned above means which we can certainly get into but
03:37you know, coming out of the backfield, they can get the
03:39yards. It's not maybe garbage time yards may not be the
03:42prettiest yards but I actually kind of am interested in
03:44Rattler's number tonight. Two hundred and forty-three yards
03:48on forty attempts and twenty-two completions in his
03:52debut against the Bucks last Sunday in New Orleans. A
03:56touchdown albeit multiple interceptions. So, you
04:00mentioned it for the Broncos. Short week Thursday night
04:03football game. It's about taking care of business and
04:06trusting Javante Williams. This stat from our producer
04:09extraordinaire who knows from personal experience that
04:12Javante Williams has not found paydirt this year because
04:16Williams is on Joe Frizo's fantasy team. Seventy-nine
04:20total touches so far this season without scoring a
04:23touchdown. It's the most around the NFL. Why does that change
04:28tonight in Nola? Uh he's just like I don't want to say
04:32positive regression is coming for him but when you see the
04:35ball this many times, it's going to happen. He leads the
04:37team in red zone carries. He leads the team in the team and
04:40carries inside the five-yard line. I like him to score at
04:44plus 160. I like him to go over forty-four and a half
04:47rushing yards. I also will say I kind of like him at a
04:50hundred plus yards at plus 1200 which you can find over on
04:52DK. Over the past four weeks, we've seen opposing running
04:55backs go for a hundred plus yards. Three different times.
04:57Sean Tucker last week with one thirty-six. Bucky Irving also
05:00had eighty-one. Kareem Hunt who came off his couch when the
05:03Chiefs signed and went for a hundred and two and Saquon went
05:05for one forty-seven. So, Javante Williams, I think he
05:09crushes his forty-four and a half number. If you don't like
05:11the plus 100, all line, all thing and all the way up is
05:13Joe Vesey would say, maybe just take it like sixty or seventy
05:16plus. This is the Javante Williams game this week. Let's
05:19take a look at the receiving props here because you are
05:21getting discounts across the board here. The top dog here is
05:24Cortman Sutton at forty-five and a half yards. If you flip
05:27it over to the Saints, it's not even a wide receiver. It's a
05:29running back in Alvin Kamara at thirty-four and a half. It's
05:33usually when you see not a lot of these big names here, you
05:36can get some value down the board. Tom, talk to me about
05:38some of these guys that are going to fill in for some of
05:40the injuries, particularly on the Saints. Yeah, on the same
05:44side of things, I'm actually most interested in Juwan
05:46Johnson over twenty-seven and a half. Right now, we actually
05:49looked at he's actually the number two receiving option on
05:52the Saints with a lot of heat out. Obviously, Alvin Kamara is
05:55their number one but I like this. The Browns about fifteen,
05:58the fifteen most yards, the tight end and Juwan Johnson has
06:00been with the team for a few years now. Like he's involved
06:03in the system. He knows what's going on. Twenty-seven and a
06:05half yards, especially at the center. I mean, somewhat of a
06:07passing game script. I think he gets over this number. I don't
06:10want to say in the first half but a twelve-yard play here, a
06:13fifteen-yard play, he kind of is going to be right at this
06:15number. I would say more often than not in this scenario. Bob
06:18Means was a, you know, a third string guy. Some people think
06:20he has the the on-field connection with Spencer
06:22Rattler just because they've been running the scout team and
06:25and have that practice reps but that's just not necessarily a
06:28player I want to go to. I think Courtland Sutton's a fine
06:30option. He's obviously their best player overall and he can
06:33get there with those big downfield plays. I would say
06:34probably two catches as well. You see two of those three guys
06:39listed for New Orleans. Both are rookies. Bob Means, a
06:43rookie fifth round pick out of Pittsburgh. So, he has that in
06:47common with Spencer Rattler. Fifth round selection for the
06:50Saints out of South Carolina in Mason Tipton, the undrafted
06:55rookie wide out from Yale. A smart guy who has six grabs
07:01Means has only five. So, you highlighted Jawan Johnson.
07:05Let's put up Tom's top props for one final time so people
07:08can soak in this goodness. Javante Williams to find
07:12Painter for the first time this year plus 160 over 44 and a
07:16half rushing yards against the Saints defense that has really
07:19been struggling either defending the ground game or
07:22through the air and Jawan Johnson, the tight end for New
07:24Orleans over 27 and a half receiving yards. Doubleheader
07:28tonight, Vecchio of October Baseball. Let's start in
07:31Queens. It's the Mets and the Dodgers. The Amazons, a home
07:35underdog. Jose Quintana gets the start for New York. Yoshi
07:38Yamamoto on the other side for LA. Three straight games that
07:43have seen at least eight runs. All three over. Does that
07:46continue in the game four? I don't think so. I think we're
07:50going to see it, you know, kind of flip to the other side with
07:52the under. You know, I gotta say Quintana has been like
07:54really, really solid over especially in the two starts in
07:58the postseason. You know, Quintana is not necessarily a
08:00pitch I would turn to on a day-to-day basis like if we're
08:03in the middle of July or August because he's not a big
08:06strikeout pitcher, but a line sitting at three and a half.
08:08It's a little bit juiced at minus 140 or so to the over,
08:10but they need him out there. He keeps the ball low. He can
08:13keep, you know, limit the hard contact and he's been making
08:16some, you know, some hitters swing and miss in the
08:18postseason. So I kind of like his over on strikeouts, which
08:20is not necessarily something I would normally say. Let's go
08:25right now to guy number. Yeah, I mean, listen, we're giving
08:30the guy shouts for his fantasy team and he fails to do what is
08:34needed quickly. Here's back to you. Game number three of the
08:38American League Championship Series. The Guardians in
08:42Cleveland for the first time hosting the Yankees. Cleveland
08:46a home underdog. Will they win their first game of the ALCS
08:50against New York? I think they do tonight. You know, getting
08:53them an even money. I think it is super solid. I think if they
08:56don't win this game, the series will be over in at most five
09:00games. Like they have to win this game to keep the series
09:03close. Also, Boyd over three and a half strikeouts. Their
09:06bullpen has been kind of beat up. I know they're coming off
09:08the rest of yesterday, but they also kind of need him out there
09:10for some innings tonight. Tom Vacchio. You will see him later
09:14all across the Sports Grid Network getting you set for
09:17Thursday night football. Thank you. We appreciate your time
09:20more TNF week seven of the 2024 NFL season kicks off tonight
09:26in New Orleans. It's the Saints and the Broncos two and a half
09:30point spread in favor of the road team short week Thursday
09:34traveling away from home. Denver the favorite in the big
09:37easy total is minimal. Just 36 and a half again. The
09:42breakdown of this game could be fascinating could be
09:46infuriating if you're going to buy into either of the two
09:50rookie quarterbacks either for offensive production points on
09:53the board or just trusting one to lead his team to a victory
09:57seventh career start all seven games this year for Bo Nicks
10:01and Denver second career start for Spencer Rattler and the
10:07Saints. Of course, it should be a homecoming of sorts tonight
10:11in New Orleans as Sean Payton makes his return to the big
10:14easy for the first time as Denver's head coach spent 15
10:18years as the Saints head coach is the winningest all-time head
10:22coach in the history of this New Orleans franchise. The
10:25longest tenured head coach in the history of the Saints
10:29organization won them a Super Bowl in 2009 nine playoff
10:34appearances as well. So the RS with all of that stewed into
10:39one. What do you expect Thursday night football to look
10:42like in New Orleans this evening and probably sloppy and
10:46getting us back to the point where we would say so many
10:48years. Why do we do Thursday night football? It's a terrible
10:51product and we might get that tonight. Now granted it's only
10:5336 and a half. They could get over that total, but when we're
10:56looking for the smoothness of the game, I don't think we're
10:58having too many like hey, there's going to be a lot of
11:00big plays on New Orleans who's making those big plays
11:02downfield because if it is a lot of Alvin Kamara, that means
11:05a lot of clock churning the same thing with the Denver
11:07Broncos on the opposite side. The goal for these two teams is
11:10not entertain the home audience like it's you know a wrestling
11:13It's who can get the win if it's six to three or 26 to 23.
11:18It doesn't matter to them. So that's the way I try to play it
11:20out. But also is when Tom was talking with us as well. You
11:23are getting some deep discounts on player props that wouldn't
11:26be this deeply discounted because that total does sit at
11:2936 and a half. That's where you can have some fun with what I
11:31guarantee you this including myself to be a lot of people
11:34out there just outsmarting themselves going for options
11:37that aren't really number one options buying low on players
11:40just because they need a catch or two to get over that number
11:43I don't think you can probably go wrong by taking starting
11:45running back on each team in this game because I don't think
11:48either one of these teams is going to run away with it. And
11:50if it is lower scoring, that means you're playing a little
11:52bit closer to the vest here. They should get their carries,
11:55but I do think some of the wide receivers do deserve some
11:58attention, particularly on a team that you might not think
12:01is going to win for me the Saints. I don't think they win.
12:03So I do think there is some value in those loads and totals
12:06for a tight end and certainly my guy above it wide receiver.
12:09Yeah, we'll talk QBs in just a moment. Denver favored for just
12:13the second time this year. They did win and cover in their
12:16first game as a home favorite a couple of weeks ago against the
12:20Las Vegas Raiders four and two ATS overall this season for
12:25Denver five of the six games booked as a dog fifth total
12:29already in seven potential games for the Broncos. That will
12:33be sub 40 pregame. Meanwhile for New Orleans off to a two
12:37and oh start highly impressive offensively. Derek Carr is now
12:41injured. New Orleans has now lost four games in a row and
12:45the defense has not looked great under defensive minded
12:47head coach Dennis Allen. They've allowed at least 26
12:50points DRS in their last three games. They gave up 51 last
12:55week to the Buccaneers. So it could be a little bit helter
12:59skelter fourth worst passing defense in the NFL. New Orleans
13:03has been over in four of six games this season. So let's
13:07talk those quarterbacks rookie quarterbacks on either side
13:11twelfth overall pick in the opening round. Bo Nicks for
13:13Denver has started every game this year for the Broncos
13:17Spencer Rattler fifth round selection for New Orleans
13:21making his second career appearance second career start
13:24in the National Football League. Both QBs sub 200 yards for
13:29their passing yards prop who has a better chance Donnie to
13:32even reach two bills tonight. I'm still if I think Nicks is
13:36going to win the game and I think the Broncos will that
13:39over 191 and a half probably makes more sense to me. Even
13:41they said well Donny usually like to take that angle with
13:43the losing quarterback throwing all over the fourth quarter can
13:46pick up those extra yards. Normally you would say yes but
13:48again who is he throwing to where are those big plays going
13:51to be coming from and is that game plan going to be sent
13:53around? Hey Alvin make sure you help us because yes you can
13:56have dump outs out of the back two to five to six catches or
13:58Kamara for let's just say 35 to 40 yards. Someone that rains
14:01that's not a lot. It's been much different than hitting off
14:04on a 25 yard pass downfield for just one completion. Also if
14:07you're looking from a bow Nick's perspective he does have
14:09much more starts under his belt and as you stated already New
14:13Orleans does not have a great defense here. So you look for
14:16the bow Nick's to say look I'm not nervous by this environment
14:18going to get another rookie against a defense that can
14:20actually be had. Why can't you throw for 200 yards? The one
14:23thing we do know offensive coordinators love to throw the
14:26football Sean Payton's an offensive guy rookie
14:29quarterback be damned if the play calls for a pass play. I'm
14:32going to give it to my quarterback to try to execute.
14:34If I had one quarterback to take to go over his passing
14:36prop, it's probably bow Nick's for me tonight. Yeah, I would
14:40agree DRS at least 200 over 204 of six in New Orleans has been
14:46atrocious fourth worst passing defense in the NFL five of six
14:50quarterbacks only Bryce Young the only quarterback who did
14:53not reach at least 235 yards against New Orleans this year
14:58and I do understand what Tom Vecchio was saying. Hey, the
15:01Broncos are a slight road favorite. They want to come in
15:03and win this game 73 and Javante Williams have 80 yards
15:07on the ground. So when you look at both running backs trying to
15:10be that safety valve if you will or staple of consistency
15:15for their rookie quarterbacks, who do you favor in the direct
15:19running back head to head? Direct running back head to
15:22head gotta be Alvin Kamara for me. I mean because I just think
15:25like the entire defense is going to be geared towards
15:28stopping him. Yes, but also the entire offense should be
15:32geared toward getting him the football because he is your
15:34singular playmaker. If you said Donnie, give me one thing that
15:37you think he's going to do well tonight or one thing that you
15:39think at a good price point could be if you get in the red
15:42zone. Is it really going to be a touchdown pass or are they
15:44going to be at the five yard line? Oh, you know what kid
15:46you're a rookie here. We're not going to get you confused
15:48three straight carries by Alvin Kamara for a touchdown. So I do
15:51think he can get over his yards. I do think he can catch
15:54enough passes to get over his receding yards. But if I just
15:56said, you know what forget that if they score a touchdown
15:58tonight, what are the odds? It's not Alvin Kamara like he's
16:01the favorite to do that and I think he gets that done tonight
16:04for them. Seven total scores this year even once last week in
16:08Rattlers debut Donnie. If you had to go pass catchers, who's
16:11your favorite prop pick? I gotta tell you it has to be Bob
16:15Means like you look at the game last week and coming into it as
16:18a rookie. It's like hey, man, he doesn't have a lot of you
16:20know expertise, but he did have eight targets last week. Five
16:24catches and a touchdown and the majority of the targets
16:27catches and the touchdown came in the first half when it was a
16:29close game. He has a little bit of a connection with 31 yards.
16:33We're talking 7531 yards. Come on now, Bob Bob Bob Bob. Let's
16:38go Bob Bob. Add it on a little bit. Yes, enjoy the money line
16:43for the early line next.

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