• 2 months ago
Before Patriots defensive lineman Keion White joins the show, Andrew runs down hot topics from the week and then welcomes ESPN's Bill Barnwell to break down Sunday's game versus Seattle. Together, they explore how the Pats can win on offense and defense, whether the team has a Plan B offensively before identifying three matchups to watch, two keys and each making a game pick.


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Transcript
00:00:00Okay, so right off the top, I got an apology.
00:00:16It is mid-Friday, which means this episode, an outstanding episode that I teased the last
00:00:22couple of weeks, new guests, big-time guests, turns out it's ESPN's Bill Barnwell, is awesome.
00:00:29This is one of the deeper dives I have done on this show into a single game, and I don't
00:00:34know how long.
00:00:35And this is year three of the pods.
00:00:36We've had plenty of games.
00:00:37We've had a lot of time.
00:00:38ESPN's Bill Barnwell delivered in a big way.
00:00:41This is a way that I love nerding out.
00:00:42I think you will thoroughly enjoy listening to, but I said an apology off the top.
00:00:46You have about less than 48 hours to really soak in everything that we said.
00:00:51So on the back end of this is another gift.
00:00:54Keon White joined us for the four-minute drill.
00:00:56I'll be honest, not my finest performance because Keon White, I swear to God, could
00:01:01jump in as the new king of cringe comedy in the NFL any time that he wanted.
00:01:06The first question, he deadpanned me.
00:01:08He deadpanned me a lot, and you'll just kind of see how it goes.
00:01:11But Keon was great.
00:01:12Bill was outstanding.
00:01:13When the Patriots have the ball, when the Seahawks have the ball, for those of you who
00:01:17are new, we typically do a three keys, or excuse me, three matchups, two keys, one wildcard
00:01:22thought breakdown, three, two, one.
00:01:24We also talk about big picture things like, can the Patriots have a plan B on offense?
00:01:28Because we all wrote after the opener, and I said here, this is how they have to win.
00:01:33And they can win.
00:01:34Great defense, no turnover, special teams are good moving forward.
00:01:37But it's really like walking a tightrope.
00:01:39So we had some ideas about how that rope can go from, I don't know how wide a tightrope
00:01:44is.
00:01:45Like maybe we get a second one, so you've got one foot on each to widen that out a little
00:01:49bit in case you slip, which the Patriots, we know will do.
00:01:51They're not going to be a great team, but they can be a winning team.
00:01:54And perhaps a 2-0 team.
00:01:55So full breakdown coming with ESPN's Bill Barnwell.
00:01:58Before that, I just want to hit on a couple of things that came up this week since we
00:02:02last talked on Monday night.
00:02:04Number one, a massive old school journalism story from ESPN, Don Ben-Nada Jr. writing
00:02:11why Robert Kraft has not gotten into the Hall of Fame yet.
00:02:15And it's been a 12 year quest, as he put it.
00:02:18And look, my first reaction to this was who asked for this story?
00:02:22Am I looking at the now defunct ESPN Boston?
00:02:26Oh, and this story is about 4,000, 5,000 words long.
00:02:29So off the top, there is a lot of rich journalism in here.
00:02:33Good reporting.
00:02:34We all suspected the Krafts owned the rights and had real editorial control over the dynasty.
00:02:40The doc in the book, they did.
00:02:43It's in there.
00:02:44It's in the report.
00:02:45Also in there, a lot of behind the scenes kind of inner workings about the Hall of Fame
00:02:49voting process.
00:02:50Why Kraft is not in, though he's had the six Super Bowl rings, gone to the Super Bowl a
00:02:54few other times, including with two different head coaches, and obviously presided over
00:02:58the greatest dynasty in NFL history.
00:03:00Personally, I don't care a whole lot.
00:03:02I'm of the belief Kraft should be in the Hall of Fame.
00:03:04And whatever you want to say about spending lately, or the Belichick exit, which was ugly,
00:03:09and all of the triad, I would say failed puppeteering going on from ownership, especially for the
00:03:14last 12 months.
00:03:16The guy won.
00:03:17He should be in there.
00:03:18And if there are five or six owners already in the Hall of Fame, he should be there.
00:03:22Now, part of that has to do with his personal PR man, spokesman, and the team's head of
00:03:27PR, Stacey James, someone who full disclosure, I speak with almost on a daily basis because
00:03:31I'm a rep for all the Patriots beat writers and media.
00:03:35When there are conflicts about availability, your player didn't show up here, do that.
00:03:39And it's not to harp on PR, it's just to say, hey, look, here's the media policy.
00:03:43We got to follow by these rules.
00:03:44This is what we're looking for.
00:03:45And there's a lot of negotiation that goes back and forth.
00:03:47So Stacey is described in there as being intense.
00:03:51The things that Stacey cares about, he is very intense about.
00:03:55And part of the story makes the point of which I can't verify.
00:03:57I didn't do it in this reporting.
00:03:59But that intensity, that longing, that desire to help get Robert into the Hall of Fame,
00:04:04something Stacey cares deeply about, has actually had the opposite effect and had turned off
00:04:10certain voters who were going to vote on this, which is also kind of an opaque, clumsy process
00:04:14because you've got a certain number of media members, some of whom are not totally that
00:04:17attached.
00:04:18Anyway, there's a sentence in there about like cajoling and dining, pressing and doing
00:04:21all these different things.
00:04:22I fully believe Stacey put on the full court press.
00:04:24He's quoted in the story.
00:04:26I'm sure they're not happy about it.
00:04:28So for me, the takeaway is this.
00:04:31I believe Kraft should be in the Hall of Fame.
00:04:32I wasn't really sure why the story was out there in the first place, but I am appreciative
00:04:37of the journalism that was done because you got to learn things you did not know.
00:04:41You have to go places you do not get to go.
00:04:43And that's always my goal when I write my stories, whether they're big, deep behind-the-scenes
00:04:47dives or talking to sources and having phone calls at midnight so you can know something
00:04:51maybe sometimes a couple of months later.
00:04:53So it's a great story.
00:04:55I know it made headlines for a day or two.
00:04:57We'll hit on it here.
00:04:58We'll leave it at that.
00:04:59Number two story I did have this week, which according to a little birdie got all the way
00:05:03to Seattle because the story was about the Patriots this offseason very secretly installing
00:05:09a brand new pressure package from ex-Ravens defensive coordinator, new Seattle head coach,
00:05:15Mike McDonald.
00:05:16You may go, okay, well, why is that a big deal?
00:05:19Well, I'll put it like this.
00:05:21As Jonathan Jones told to me, long time Patriots corner, he used to have a running joke the
00:05:26last few years.
00:05:27He would come in the spring, OTA practices, workouts, mini camp, coaches are reinstalling
00:05:31Belichick's defense.
00:05:32And he would go, are we installing something new today?
00:05:36And his business coach, Mike Pellegrino would go, no, we're not.
00:05:40So he does the same thing this spring.
00:05:41Now we installed something new today.
00:05:44And Mike Pellegrino goes, yeah, actually we are.
00:05:47This is something the Patriots never would have done under Belichick.
00:05:51That is just a statement of fact.
00:05:52It will actually take the bait.
00:05:54It's a statement of opinion in Jonathan Jones, whose opinion having been around this long
00:05:58and known bill as well as he did and does, I think should be taken as close to fact.
00:06:02This is not to say it's a good or bad thing.
00:06:06It's just a point of intrigue, a storyline, something unprecedented.
00:06:09As we go forward into this new era, the Patriots are not only expanding their playbook, which
00:06:13you always tweak every off season, but they're copying and pasting, going to Xerox and bringing
00:06:18it back home and putting it in their own book because Mike McDonald's a really freaking
00:06:22good defensive coach.
00:06:23And a lot of what they do is similar enough to what the Patriots, meaning the Ravens historically,
00:06:27because that's where McDonald came from, that they can do some of the things here in New
00:06:32England as well.
00:06:33Now they didn't show a whole lot in Cincinnati.
00:06:36And I think I talked about this last week where defenders like Kyle Duggar, Jonathan
00:06:40Jones, Will Peppers are saying, hey, this is a different defense.
00:06:42It's going to be more aggressive with Covington.
00:06:44And that's like the central square on any bingo card when you get a new defensive coordinator,
00:06:48right?
00:06:49It's like, we're going to be more aggressive.
00:06:50It's going to be multiple.
00:06:51It's going to be this and that.
00:06:52No one's ever saying when we passive, it's four down and a lot of zone coverage, which
00:06:56I think I did.
00:06:57I did talk about this last week.
00:06:58The point is, that's what they meant.
00:07:00There's this new pressure package, which the Seahawks are going to run from on Sunday.
00:07:05The Patriots could run on their own and will moving forward.
00:07:07So if you've not read the story, I would suggest you do that.
00:07:10Quotes from Jonathan Jones, Anthony Jennings, Drupal Peppers, who said whoever told you
00:07:14that told you too much, Mayo and a couple other people.
00:07:18So something of note this week.
00:07:20And then again, I said Ken White at the end of the show, the man, he's probably the most
00:07:25interesting man in this locker room.
00:07:26We did the football, non-football questions.
00:07:28There's stuff that we didn't even get to that I would love to talk about.
00:07:31We might even have a whole podcast segment with him because he's, he's an open book.
00:07:35He's just going to say it in the same manner, making the same face as anything else that
00:07:41he says, which can feel a little awkward when you're the interviewer, but good dude.
00:07:44You listen to the four minute drill after Bill Barnwell.
00:07:47Before we get to that, uh, guys, if you're not playing already, I don't know what you're
00:07:52doing because price picks to me, especially in the middle of the week, I'm not putting
00:07:55money on football, but this is America's number one daily fantasy sports app for a reason.
00:08:00It's just you against the numbers.
00:08:02If you're watching on Sunday, this is the simplest, fastest, easiest way to win money.
00:08:06While you watch the NFL, you just pick more or pick less on two or more stat projections
00:08:10and see if you win.
00:08:12That's it.
00:08:13Last week, if you had done this with remindering Stevenson, or if you'd done this with, uh,
00:08:17the number of field goals for Joey Slyer, if you did this for any of the unders, basically
00:08:20for the bangles, you would have won and you can do it with those same players in totals
00:08:24or pop Douglas or Jacoby preset.
00:08:26And with price picks, if you make four correct picks, you could win up to a hundred times
00:08:31your money because this is the only real money daily fantasy platform with an injury insurance
00:08:35policy as well.
00:08:36So if you have four picks and someone gets hurt, no problem.
00:08:40Your lineup is still intact.
00:08:41And I've used price picks before.
00:08:42I said in the middle of the week, you know, again, the socks, okay, I'll finally admit
00:08:45it.
00:08:46The Red Sox are out.
00:08:47It's done.
00:08:48It's over.
00:08:49I'm sad, but they're still playing.
00:08:50I'll still play price picks.
00:08:51Pick over on the strikeouts, some RBI, some home runs.
00:08:54So this Sunday, if you would prefer to play, and I would encourage you to, you can have
00:08:59basically a free square in the bingo card, Caleb Williams, more than 0.5 pass yards.
00:09:05If he gets one pass yard, you win.
00:09:07That's it.
00:09:08Put it in your lineup.
00:09:09Lock it in.
00:09:10I'll give you two more picks as we do every single week.
00:09:11And full disclosure, your boy went over to last week, but we're rebounding this week.
00:09:16And here's how Gino Smith, less than 21 completions on Sunday, the Patriots are not giving up
00:09:2222 completions or more to Gino Smith.
00:09:25It's not going to happen.
00:09:26I don't know about the arts.
00:09:27DK Metcalf could get loose, but this defense is going to confuse.
00:09:30They're going to deny.
00:09:31And you'll hear more about that with Bill Marne.
00:09:33Well, I will also take Jacoby Brissett more than 15 and a half rush yards.
00:09:38So he did last week.
00:09:39He had 32.
00:09:40This offense line is going to give up a lot of pressure.
00:09:42I think they're going to put the Patriots, uh, they're going to put the offense in more
00:09:45bootleg situations.
00:09:47Those are one, two reads at most, and then take off when they run more plays like that
00:09:52and Jacoby Brissett is under more pressure.
00:09:53He will have more than 15 and a half rush yards.
00:09:55So to recap our prize picks picks of the week, Caleb Williams for the bears more than 0.5
00:10:01pass yards.
00:10:02It's free money.
00:10:03Gino Smith, less than 21 completions, something you're going to root for.
00:10:07And then Jacoby Brissett more than 15 and a half rush yards.
00:10:10So download the price picks app today.
00:10:12Use code C L N S that's CLNS and get $50 instantly.
00:10:16When you play five bucks, that's code CLNS on price picks to get $50 instantly.
00:10:20When you pay five bucks, you don't even know when to get the $50 bonus.
00:10:24It's guaranteed.
00:10:25Prize picks run your game.
00:10:27Okay.
00:10:28As promised a great bill Barnwell at ESPN baited into doing this rinky dink podcast
00:10:32trapped into talking Patriots.
00:10:34But I would say, well, if there was, if there was ever a time to talk Patriots, I would
00:10:39say it would be after their biggest upset win in eight years now.
00:10:42Yeah.
00:10:43I mean, this was a, a team I was really interested in heading into this season.
00:10:50I hate playing the like national media stuff, but I will say it kind of felt like a lot
00:10:57of people were writing this team off as irrelevant.
00:11:00Like they were going to be the worst team in the league.
00:11:02It was going to be a real, just sort of like just a mess of a year.
00:11:08And you know, what's week one or week two, I don't want to, you know, pat myself on the
00:11:13back too much, but this is a team that I feel like I've been talking about all off season
00:11:17as being really interesting and maybe better than people expect.
00:11:20Not a great team, but at least competitive team.
00:11:22And certainly we saw plenty of that in week one.
00:11:25Yeah.
00:11:26And they made your annual list of teams most likely to improve, right?
00:11:29And your records, what like 900 on that?
00:11:31What's a, do you have something off your head?
00:11:33I believe it's in more in like the seven 58 range, but you know, we're still talking about
00:11:37good.
00:11:38And of course the question is how much are they going to improve, right?
00:11:41Like I think for a team that had believe the lowest win expectation on football, four and
00:11:45a half wins heading into this year, like I don't think anyone's going to be patting
00:11:48me on the back if they went five games, but I do think this is a seven, eight win team
00:11:52if things break, right.
00:11:54And I think you saw an example of what happens if things break right in the win over the
00:11:57Bengals.
00:11:58Yeah.
00:11:59You're not the only person to, to share this, that, you know, mutual friend, Aaron shots
00:12:02came on the pod and said seven 10 this summer.
00:12:05And everyone in local radio was like, Hey, look at this drunk guy Callahan got for his
00:12:08podcast.
00:12:09It was really analytics.
00:12:10Cause he sounds insane.
00:12:11Lo and behold, you two both look really good.
00:12:14I do want to go back to the summer though, because you have this awesome preseason tradition
00:12:18with Mina, Dominique Foxworth, round table pods, and you go from mild to hot to spicy
00:12:24as possible takes.
00:12:25So I want to ask one of the smartest, one of those measured man at ESPN and the NFL
00:12:28department, just your current spiciest Patriots take right off the top.
00:12:33Ooh,
00:12:34Um, let's lean into what I said over the summer.
00:12:37Let's say this is going to be a top five defense in 2024.
00:12:41I know that's obviously the strength team.
00:12:43I don't think it's, this is more like a hot than a spicy maybe, but I do think it is,
00:12:48you know, for a, again, a team that was being written off a team that were, the defense
00:12:51was not being talked about in this way.
00:12:53I tried to talk to as many people over the summer as possible and getting the sound.
00:12:57I don't think people care to listen, but it's the truth.
00:12:59This was the best defense in football last year.
00:13:01This was in the second, sorry, in the second half of the season, they were the best defense
00:13:04in football.
00:13:05And that was with the third worst average starting field position of any defense over
00:13:11the last decade over that stretch of football.
00:13:14That was without match you'd on without Christian Gonzalez, with a terrible offense, with nothing
00:13:20to play for with bill Belichick, having one foot out the door in terms of being a lame
00:13:25duck coach.
00:13:26And yet these defense showed up week after week with no hope of really winning and played
00:13:32competitive football and really busted their butts.
00:13:36And you would figure if that defense was going to take them a step backwards, I don't have
00:13:41course, the traders and Christian Barmer is not there and he's a huge addition, but are
00:13:45a very talented player, but not crazy to think this defense could still be really good.
00:13:51And then you factor in all the improvements on the offensive side of the ball where they're
00:13:54not going to be great, but they might at least be competitive when it comes to protecting
00:13:58the football.
00:13:59When it comes to, you know, not, not forcing so many mistakes that we saw from the offense
00:14:03last year, this defense could be in position to be a top five defense in terms of scoring
00:14:08defense.
00:14:09It was really, you know, the advanced stats, EPA per play, even, you know, points per drive.
00:14:13It was a great defense second half of the year.
00:14:15So, you know, maybe it's a little easier after week one, but I do think this is a, a legitimate
00:14:21top five defense, especially if they do get far more back at some point during the season.
00:14:25Well, I think the first point you make too, is it's such a great one.
00:14:28And I discussed this last week, recapping, you know, film of the bangles, like the power
00:14:32of Jacoby preset this year is not giving the ball away.
00:14:35So your defense, when you're put in, in better situations of just, we're not playing essentially
00:14:40with 10 guys due to either starting in our own territory or having to play an extra possession
00:14:44or two, because the offense is screwing it up that badly.
00:14:47You'll be able to play normal defense.
00:14:49Like you can go into a workplace where it'll be nine to five.
00:14:52That's it.
00:14:53You know, you get in, you get out.
00:14:54If you're good at your job, you're not dealing with any kind of craziness around you that
00:14:56saps your energy or puts you in a less spot to be productive.
00:15:00And that's what they're, they should theoretically have this year, which gets me to my next question.
00:15:04You know, you're, you're so good again, diving deeper into things, kind of separating the
00:15:07signal from the noise.
00:15:09It's one game.
00:15:10We all get that.
00:15:11But I want to put all the small sample qualifiers out the window.
00:15:14You look at that week, one game, what felt sustainable to you for the Patriots and what
00:15:18did not.
00:15:21I mean, on one hand, the formula sort of seems sustainable like this.
00:15:26You're not going to get a fumble on the two yard line that you were covered by Jacoby
00:15:30percent had, I think at least one play where the ball kind of went up in the air.
00:15:34I think it was third of the end zone where it could have been picked off.
00:15:37Yeah.
00:15:38I don't think he's going to, yeah, I don't think he's going to put the ball in danger
00:15:41like that on a weekly basis.
00:15:42So I would say that formula of great defense run game and winning, or at least being competitive
00:15:48with the turnover battle is quasi sustainable, just not as dramatic as it was last week.
00:15:53The thing I would say for sure, I feel good about after last week is the coverage in the
00:15:58backend because that is so much of that is communication.
00:16:02It's just having the talent to pull that off and the Patriots have that.
00:16:05I mean, they are a really smart, really well-coached defense.
00:16:08I think the concerns maybe people had about, oh, this defense is going to look really sloppy
00:16:13without Bill or certainly not as well put together without Bill Belichick, which I think
00:16:18is a fair concern.
00:16:19Bill Belichick is the, to me, the greatest defensive coach in the history of the national
00:16:22football league.
00:16:23Like they looked every bit as smart, every bit as fluid, every bit as capable of disguising
00:16:31what they were going to do pre and post snap.
00:16:33They executed their plans really well.
00:16:35There weren't a lot of blown coverages or a lot of mistakes.
00:16:38And having Gonzalez on top of all that gives you this sort of force multiplier, right?
00:16:41Where if you want to play, you know, Christian Gonzalez, one-on-one and man coverage versus
00:16:45Jim Archez, you can do that and survive.
00:16:47Not a lot of people in the NFL have cornerbacks who can do that.
00:16:50If you want to drop off and play zone, well, you can disguise that because you have a player
00:16:53who can go and, you know, move anywhere on the field.
00:16:55You have guys who are capable of playing different spots in the secondary.
00:16:59You get Marcus Jones back, which I think was a huge loss to them last year that people
00:17:02didn't really pay much attention to, even though it did hurt them a lot in the secondary,
00:17:06you know, have to stay healthy.
00:17:08Obviously, that is the big thing.
00:17:09If they lose Gonzalez, if they lose Marcus Jones again, or they lose Kyle Duggar, they're
00:17:13going to be hit hard.
00:17:14But relatively, I think the, the brightest spot, the thing that I feel strongest about
00:17:18is this team is going to be very good in coverage.
00:17:22They're going to get people fits.
00:17:23They're going to be able to take away receivers if they want to.
00:17:25And they're going to disguise what they can do in a week to week basis.
00:17:28And that's going to be tough for opposing offenses.
00:17:29You know, we don't know if they have that great pass rusher that maybe you would hope
00:17:33you'd have in this defense that maybe they got rid of when they traded judan.
00:17:37But in terms of what they can do on the back end, I think they're capable of doing just
00:17:41about anything against even great NFL offenses.
00:17:45And you know, Bill, we have a joke in this podcast when people are super serious about
00:17:49the points they make you say National Football League when you were giving Bill Belichick
00:17:54his proper do instead of saying the NFL, you go National Football League.
00:17:57You really mean that and to, to follow up on your, your points, like to the soundness
00:18:01of the defense, it three missed tackles, no one else in football in week one had fewer
00:18:05than 10.
00:18:06You talk about disguising coverages.
00:18:07I described it as kind of this midseason plan that they were able to drop into week one
00:18:11because these guys have been here forever.
00:18:14And so I'm curious too.
00:18:15And I wrote about this earlier this week, talked about it in the intro to this pod.
00:18:19They're tweaking the defense has been in a way that gives it a little more flavor.
00:18:24Like they've got all the spices on the rack that you could want.
00:18:27But when you get to pick from the Mike McDonald shelf and then add that in there too, and
00:18:31you're doing even more things they haven't even shown, it encourages me now, granted,
00:18:34they'll miss more tackles against offenses that are going to threaten you with more than
00:18:37just Jamar taste and they don't have any other weapons on hand.
00:18:40To me, I would bring up a couple of things to Jacoby percent sack avoidance is huge.
00:18:44Like you, you were among the other people earliest on this sacks or a quarterback stack.
00:18:48He had a 7.7 pressure to sack rate, which was second in the league behind Lamar Jackson,
00:18:53who if you watched him for one game, you understand how that stat works.
00:18:57He avoids pressure, doesn't get sacked.
00:18:59It's generally a good thing.
00:19:00It won't be that low, but it will be better in a way.
00:19:03Things that are not sustainable.
00:19:04Roger Stevenson, 28 touches like that.
00:19:06That dude will be a corpse by week 14 if he keeps getting that many touches and you're
00:19:10not going to face a bad run defense every single week.
00:19:13But I feel like we covered that.
00:19:15Otherwise, if you're looking for hope, it's still with the defense.
00:19:17No question.
00:19:19And certainly we'll talk about some of the stuff as we preview.
00:19:22I think the Seahawks game and, you know, some of the stuff that might not be sustainable
00:19:26or things that are maybe keys for the Patriots to win this game.
00:19:29But you know, the Patriots victories this year before Drake may comes in are going to
00:19:35look a lot like this game.
00:19:36Like they're not going to be exactly the same, but you know, it's going to be because they
00:19:40tackle.
00:19:41Well, it's going to be because they protect the football.
00:19:42It's going to be because they create takeaways.
00:19:44It's going to be because, you know, there's a two or three third and shorts or a fourth
00:19:48and short where they just flow to the football better and they tackle reliably and they're
00:19:53smart and they anticipate what's happening with good coaching and good film study.
00:19:57Like they are going to have to win by being a team that executes better, a team that is
00:20:03coached and prepared better and a team that communicates better than other other teams
00:20:06in this league.
00:20:07And I think that is not out of the realm of possibility.
00:20:10Yeah.
00:20:11And look, we're going to get into this in a second because you are here for the Seahawks
00:20:14game.
00:20:15Let me cover that.
00:20:16But like the the chess match this week is so different, I think, from the Bengals, which
00:20:19is not to dismiss Louie and Arumo, who is getting more flowers, you know, than anyone
00:20:24on Valentine's Day a couple of years ago for what he did to the Chiefs.
00:20:27But it's just to say that like there are new systems, great defensive coach and a lot of
00:20:30Patriots have to handle where last week it was like, yeah, we can shadow Jamar Chase
00:20:33and kind of get away defensively and offensively.
00:20:36We got to protect and we're going to run the ball.
00:20:38And I know that latter part will work.
00:20:40So before we get into the matchup, though, this is a big week, too, in the NFL, Pat Seahawks,
00:20:45Chiefs Bengals, Saints Cowboys.
00:20:47And Bill, I don't know where you're going to be on Sunday.
00:20:49I think you're probably at home watching all these games.
00:20:52Yes.
00:20:53OK.
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00:22:00All right.
00:22:01That's it.
00:22:02Into the matchup.
00:22:03So big picture, when I looked at the Seahawks film and you look at some of the numbers
00:22:07that come out after it struck me, Bill, that I think they want to play the same game, right?
00:22:13They know their limitations with the offensive lines.
00:22:15These are two defenses that spent a lot of time and too high last week.
00:22:19We know it's very common across the league.
00:22:20What do you make of that idea that you're going to see not mirror images, specifically
00:22:24a receiver, but everyone else is kind of like, okay, we're on the same page before we even
00:22:29get started here.
00:22:30Yeah, this was actually a really interesting game.
00:22:33You know, I think with the Patriots, if you were forecasting what their offense was going
00:22:37to look like with Jacoby Bissette, and like, maybe you'd have some little changes here
00:22:39and there, but basically you got what you expected week one, right?
00:22:42Like you got a heavy run dose, you got Bissette protecting the football, you know, like you
00:22:47said, the sack avoidance, the interception avoidance, you know, they were comfortable
00:22:50throwing short of the sticks.
00:22:51If they had to, they wanted their drives to end with a kick.
00:22:54And that was what we expected.
00:22:57Seahawks have to admit.
00:22:58I was a little surprised based on what I saw because, you know, you think about Ryan grub,
00:23:02you think about what that offense looked like his last year at Washington, they were spreading
00:23:06the ball.
00:23:08They were throwing deep.
00:23:09Michael Pennix felt like every pass was 25 yards downfield.
00:23:10And like, I recognize you're going to change your offense here and there, but you can be
00:23:14former case that, Hey, the Seahawks have, you know, three great receivers in Lockett
00:23:18Smith and Jigba and Metcalf.
00:23:20You know, maybe this is going to be a very hit pass, happy offense.
00:23:23And that was not the case.
00:23:25Week one, it was a very conservative offense.
00:23:28Gino Smith is his average pass traveled six and a half yards in the air, which I think
00:23:32was the 25th or so in in air yards per attempt.
00:23:37That sounds right.
00:23:38Yeah.
00:23:39Pretty conservative offense.
00:23:40Then a lot of physical running, a lot of duo, a lot of counter, a lot of gap runs to try
00:23:45and overwhelm them up front over on the Broncos up front, I should say.
00:23:49And that is, I think, where I would lean for what this offense looks like week two.
00:23:54I think a lot more of trying to test the Patriots up front.
00:23:57I think a lot more of, you know, can we control the game with our run game?
00:24:01The only question is if Kenneth Walker plays, because if Kenneth Walker does not play and
00:24:07I think as we record this, I don't know if that's the Seahawks.
00:24:09Is there any reports from Seahawks practice today as we record?
00:24:12We haven't heard anything.
00:24:13So we're recording Friday early afternoon, which would be trying to wait as long as possible.
00:24:16I will check all of my updates, which is anytime Adam Schefter, I think, moves an inch and
00:24:20pops up my phone.
00:24:22There's nothing here.
00:24:23So we're still waiting because it's 11 o'clock West Coast time.
00:24:25But look, if you miss practice Wednesday, Thursday, and that goes for the right tackle
00:24:28George fan to typically, you're definitely not at 100 percent and B, you're probably
00:24:33not going to play on Sunday, but we'll see.
00:24:34Yeah.
00:24:36I mean, certainly Kenneth Walker, you know, could play, he could be limited.
00:24:39We saw Zach Charbonnet in the second half of that game.
00:24:41So I'm a different kind of back.
00:24:43I don't think he's as, you know, he's not as explosive.
00:24:45I think you can run between the tackles fine, but I don't think he has that sort of special
00:24:50acceleration, that special ability to, you know, you know, pile up missed tackles that
00:24:56Kenneth Walker does.
00:24:58So I think there'll be a question of do they change the run game a bit?
00:25:01You know, if Zach Charbonnet is the primary back, of course, you're not going to want
00:25:03to give Zach Charbonnet 25 carries either.
00:25:05Most likely, you're going to want to split carries with him and the other backs on that
00:25:08roster.
00:25:09So, you know, I think with Walker, they are a more imposing run game, but I think that's
00:25:14where it starts.
00:25:15The Seahawks is just, you know, can we, you know, facing a Patriots defense?
00:25:19It's not going to Christian Barmore.
00:25:21Can we physically overwhelm the Patriots?
00:25:23The Patriots are, I think, a very stout defense.
00:25:25I don't think that's a weakness for them, but I think the Seahawks do that as kind of
00:25:28the core of their offense so far early this season.
00:25:31Yeah.
00:25:32And that explosion you talk about going from Ken Walker to Zach Charbonnet to remember
00:25:36that I would just say, remember how long it takes you to say the name Zach Charbonnet.
00:25:40That's the guy who's not getting into the hole as quickly or coming is out.
00:25:44And Drodd Mayo gave, you know, a lot of praise to Kenneth Walker saying, look, he, he pops
00:25:48off the film.
00:25:49I don't know what his man rating is, but this dude is, is a dude.
00:25:52Now to steal from your former colleague, Zach Lowe.
00:25:55This is the way I like to introduce, especially games later in the season, like this is too
00:25:58early for DVO way, but people are going to listen to the podcast.
00:26:01This is the breakdown you're going to get as we get into the matchup and we'll start
00:26:03with the Seahawks when they have the ball Seahawks are fourth overall in DVO way their
00:26:08seventh and offense, number one in defense, 27, the special teams, the Patriots are top
00:26:1210 team right now.
00:26:13They're number eight overall 15th and offense folks.
00:26:17That's above average 11th and defense feels low, but eighth and special teams, Seattle
00:26:22one, we'll do the last four matchups here.
00:26:24As we preview every single game, they won 26 to 20, Kenneth Walker, a hundred yards
00:26:28touchdown.
00:26:29Gino Smith ran for 134 yards through for another O-line struggled in past protection.
00:26:33The defense generated a ton of pressure and bow necks look like a rookie.
00:26:36So that's, that's what you miss, but sticking with the Seahawks have the ball.
00:26:40This to me is a classic.
00:26:41Okay.
00:26:42How many safeties did the Patriots have?
00:26:44And then within the screen, right?
00:26:46As you're watching at home on the TV copy, and if they're stopping the run and you don't
00:26:50see Kyle Duggar or Jabril peppers or Jalen Hawkins, they're in really good shape when
00:26:55they have to spin that down and go from a two high structure to a single high.
00:26:59That to me is going to say, okay, the Seahawks are probably winning on the ground.
00:27:02Is that too simple?
00:27:03No, I think that's, that's when you talk to quarterbacks about like, what's the simplest
00:27:08thing you're looking for?
00:27:09Like what's the first pre-snap thing you're looking at?
00:27:12At the most important pre-snap thing you're looking at.
00:27:14It's what's it's what's the weak side safety doing because if the weak side safety is creeping
00:27:17into the box, you, you were getting single high, you know what the run fits are going
00:27:20to be, or, or, you know, it's going to be, you know, you're, you're going to have numbers
00:27:23in the box.
00:27:24You're not going to be accounting for whether you're going to be hot because you might have
00:27:27too many guys to block if the, if the safety comes, if the safety stays high, you know,
00:27:32you're getting too deep.
00:27:33You know that you're, you know, it changes what the run fits are.
00:27:35It changes what your looks going to be after the snap.
00:27:36If you're running an RPO it changes what the overhang defenders are doing.
00:27:40You know, it, it, it sort of is a, you know, not only just a play tell, but like you're
00:27:44saying a big picture tell about what the Patriots are doing, what they're succeeding with and
00:27:49you know, sort of what they're having to do with their safeties.
00:27:52Like it is a luxury.
00:27:53Team of course wants to play too deep because you're not giving up as many big plays and
00:27:57the Seahawks have guys who can hit big plays on the ground with Walker and in the passing
00:28:01game with all of their receivers.
00:28:03And that's obviously the thing you want to avoid.
00:28:05You want to take that away first.
00:28:06So if you can then stop the run with your seven guys in the box without having to deal
00:28:10with you know, Duggar in the box as an eighth player, that's obviously a huge advantage.
00:28:14So I think it's going to be a test right early in the game.
00:28:17I think you're going to see the Patriots sort of see what they can get away with on defense
00:28:21and if they need to put that safety in the box, I think if they are succeeding and they're
00:28:25having the Seahawks in third and long, this is going to be trouble for the Seahawks because
00:28:29there's a really big weakness here for Seattle and it's the right side of their offensive
00:28:32line.
00:28:33I'm George Fante.
00:28:34I'm sorry.
00:28:35Their starter is able Lucas.
00:28:36Able Lucas is on the pup list to begin the year.
00:28:39I believe I'm George Fante.
00:28:41They're right tackle.
00:28:42I think you mentioned he missed practice this week.
00:28:44Probably not going to play came out early last week.
00:28:47Their third string right tackle is stone Forsyth, which I'm going to say just sick
00:28:51name to start NFL names stone.
00:28:54This is what it reminded me of it.
00:28:55Tell me which one is more fair.
00:28:56Does it sound like the rich kid villain in a Disney movie?
00:29:00Or is this like if you have a crayon box only for rich kids, that's like the slate in there
00:29:04that the stone color.
00:29:05I love those.
00:29:06I think of isn't it a guy in Pearl Jam whose first name is stone guy.
00:29:13That's what it evokes for me.
00:29:15Grunge guitarist like stone, especially in Seattle to do with like super long hair.
00:29:21He's wearing flannel onto the field.
00:29:23He's just talking dudes.
00:29:24But anyway, that's the week side of the line stone force at the right tackle probably in
00:29:28this game.
00:29:29And then Anthony Bradford, the right guard in his second season, had some hiccups in
00:29:33the opener.
00:29:34That's where you're going to attack.
00:29:35So to me, that's the for the Patriots.
00:29:37That's the question of, okay, we don't have that great one on one pass rusher.
00:29:40Obviously, Ken White had an awesome game last week.
00:29:43But in terms of, you know, are you setting your pass rushes?
00:29:47So you have one on ones on that side.
00:29:49Are you running your twist, your stunts that side and forcing those guys who haven't played
00:29:54much together to communicate to pick up stuff on the fly?
00:29:58You know, if you're the Seahawks, are you putting your tight end to that side?
00:30:01Are you putting an extra lineman out there?
00:30:03Are you citing your protections that way?
00:30:05Like I think that game within the game of, you know, how can we protect the right side
00:30:09of that line and not get stuck in third and long where the Patriots can cave that side
00:30:13of the line in?
00:30:14I think is sort of where you start for the obvious weakness for the Seahawks on when
00:30:19they have the football.
00:30:20And especially to the way they move Keon White around, like it would be easy to say just
00:30:23park him at right tackle, let him do whatever he wants, and that's going to work out.
00:30:28But the way in which, you know, you keep it a little more unpredictable, so Seattle can't
00:30:32say to your point, okay, we'll slide right, we'll chip, we'll double, we'll run at him,
00:30:36but Cincinnati had some success doing, especially on their touchdown drive and Trent Brown just
00:30:40washed him out because Trent Brown, like our guy Storm Forsythe is six foot nine and humongous.
00:30:46But there's, there's a way to even set up the stunts you're talking about, right?
00:30:49If you start him as a three technique and have him loop around who Keon White got more
00:30:54mobility, agility, certainly laterally than a lot of defensive tackles, that might be
00:30:57a way to generate pressure.
00:30:58And we know the Patriots are creative with that.
00:31:01Anyway, I will say though, to Storm Forsythe, it's almost time with Storm Forsythe.
00:31:07He's, he graded out.
00:31:08Okay.
00:31:09As a run blocker for PFF.
00:31:10So this is a Seahawks team, Ryan Grubb, who had the fifth highest run rate in neutral
00:31:14downs last week, wants to run the ball that they could still go behind him.
00:31:19And that's where I think who gets to set the terms of engagement here is so clear because
00:31:23if I'm the Patriots, I'm worried like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is at the top of that list,
00:31:28but losing the first quarter and a half is maybe second or third of things that I'm really,
00:31:33really trying to guard against.
00:31:34Yeah.
00:31:36And then of course, there's that big game script question, right?
00:31:38Of last week, the Patriots were ahead early.
00:31:41They got to play from ahead or in a close game, all game.
00:31:44And that just creates lots of options where you can do an offense.
00:31:47You can run the ball reliably, you can throw check downs, you can punch and feel good about
00:31:51it.
00:31:52You can't do that when you're down 10, you can't do it when you're down 14, can't do
00:31:55it when you're down multiple scores.
00:31:57And that is obviously, I think on paper, the biggest weakness for this Patriots team is
00:32:02can Jacoby preset throw when they're down and need to throw in obvious passing situations?
00:32:07And can they pass protect in obvious passing situations, which they couldn't pass protect
00:32:11in neutral situations last week, when Chuck Sikora for was out there at left tackle and
00:32:16even fedarian low was better, but still, you know, that is, you know, a weakness or a concern
00:32:22at the very least for this Patriots team.
00:32:23And so as we talk about the, we'll talk about the defensive side of the ball for the Seahawks
00:32:27in a minute.
00:32:28But, you know, that to me is a, a key thing of, okay, it's not just managing play to play
00:32:34on offense.
00:32:35It's not just managing, you know, drive to drive.
00:32:37But I think just that big picture of, okay, you know, can our defense keep us in the game
00:32:41to avoid having the offense be in a desperate passing situation?
00:32:45Yeah.
00:32:46And two things.
00:32:47Number one, if we, we hang up here and you get a call from dried mail and he says, hey,
00:32:52Bill, I should I shadow DK Metcalf with Christian Gonzalez?
00:32:57Your answer is what?
00:32:59Probably no, just because they have other guys who can beat you.
00:33:03It's not like the Bengals last week where it was just Jamar chase and, you know, no,
00:33:07no disrespect to Andre Yosef boss or the other guys in that offense, but like you were going
00:33:11to be prepared to have those guys beat you with Metcalf, you know, like the Patriots
00:33:17are a physical team.
00:33:18They're secular.
00:33:19Everyone in their secondary, you know, can hold up.
00:33:21They're not going to get physically overwhelmed.
00:33:23I don't think on a week to week basis, Metcalf is obviously a special player.
00:33:27But I think the big picture for me is, you know, can we disguise our coverages for Geno
00:33:34Smith?
00:33:35Geno Smith is a smart quarterback.
00:33:36He is very efficient.
00:33:37He's very good.
00:33:38He's very accurate.
00:33:40He is really good at I think processing, you know, he is he's a player who has seen a lot
00:33:45of stuff.
00:33:46And so I don't think he's going to get overwhelmed.
00:33:49But I don't know that the Patriots are want to be in a game where they're playing a ton
00:33:52of man where they're just sort of, you know, shading or they're shadowing Metcalf with
00:33:58Gonzalez because I just think you want to have that that sort of ability to disguise
00:34:02what you're doing.
00:34:03And they can still do that.
00:34:04They can they can have Gonzalez, you know, like you like you see you posted in your recap
00:34:07of the Bengals game, like like it look like he's shadowing and then drop into zone.
00:34:11You can do that.
00:34:13But I do think, you know, you want to mix it up.
00:34:15You're going to want to have snaps where it's Gonzalez versus Metcalf.
00:34:17But I don't think you want to do that, you know, every single series all game.
00:34:21So I lean more towards like the Jamar Chase Shad 75% of the time is where he covered him
00:34:26on those routes.
00:34:27And to me, it is a size thing because I do trust Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones.
00:34:32But six foot five hulking, like ready for any kind of Mr. America contest, DK Metcalf
00:34:37can box body them out on slants, box them out, certainly winning any jump balls.
00:34:41And Jonathan Jones played really well.
00:34:43So did Marcus Jones.
00:34:44There's just an element of like, we're playing in the backyard.
00:34:46You spot the tallest dude on your team versus the shortest one on there.
00:34:49You're like, I should probably just throw it to you.
00:34:50I don't know what the call is.
00:34:51We don't we don't have a rap.
00:34:52Oh, we're just here playing catch in the backyard.
00:34:55I'm going to throw it to him now, to your point, when Joe Burrow finally did solve a
00:34:59lot of that to match that they were playing, it's not like, you know, match rules.
00:35:03But you get the concept of dropping into zone.
00:35:05They're showing, man, it was going vertical from the slot to chase for that 20 yard completion,
00:35:1128 yard completion, which is the only explosive play the Bengals have.
00:35:14If I'm Seattle, I'm not taking three quarters to figure this out.
00:35:17Like, I will look at that every single time and send those slots.
00:35:20So the Patriots have not tipped their hand.
00:35:22They've got a lot more tricks in the bag.
00:35:24But that leads me to number two.
00:35:25I was going to ask you, give us just the lowdown on Gino Smith, because I think, you know,
00:35:29from a national perspective, people here forget they Patriots have not seen him since 2014.
00:35:36This guy was in the division forever, and it's been a full freaking decade since they've
00:35:40had the game plan for him.
00:35:41Wow.
00:35:42I mean, this is to me, and this is going to sound shocking, but I do believe the numbers
00:35:46back it up.
00:35:48This is one of the three or four most accurate quarterbacks in football.
00:35:51Like his strength is, he is, his ball placement is incredible.
00:35:55He is so good, especially when he's hot, like he will be a little streaky here and there.
00:35:59But man, if it's like, if you have a clean pocket for Gino Smith and you're asking him
00:36:02to like put a football in a teacup, he's going to do it more often than just about anybody
00:36:06else in football.
00:36:07His ball placement, his feel for where to put balls within coverage, his ability to,
00:36:13you know, just his sense of like timing and where to get the ball, too phenomenal.
00:36:20I really think that is the big strength for Gino Smith.
00:36:24You know, you can fool him at times.
00:36:26Like I think he's smart, but I do think, you know, he will occasionally fall in love with
00:36:31the read and try to force a throw in, because I think he's a guy who thinks, not because
00:36:35of his arm strength, like there's like, I'm trying to think of good examples.
00:36:40I don't know if Justin Herbert is like this, but just Josh, maybe early Josh Allen, where
00:36:44it's like, I could throw the ball even last year, Josh Allen, like I can fit the ball
00:36:48anywhere I please because I have a howitzer attached to my arm.
00:36:52Yeah.
00:36:53Like Superman, three shots in.
00:36:54Watch what I can do.
00:36:55You know?
00:36:56Yeah.
00:36:57Right.
00:36:58Right.
00:36:59I think there are guys who do make throws like that because they think every window
00:37:00is open to me because of my arm strength.
00:37:02Gino's not like that.
00:37:03Gino doesn't have that caliber of arm, but I think Gino thinks, okay, even if the window
00:37:07is small, kind of like a Dak Prescott, maybe like, even though the window is small.
00:37:11I trust my guys and I trust my ability to put the ball in the exact right spot.
00:37:15I think he has that ability.
00:37:17And so you get a lot of throws like that.
00:37:19So I think your hope, if you're the Patriots is, you know, maybe we can convince him to
00:37:23think that a window is there and then take that away.
00:37:26Force an interception that way.
00:37:27I do think, you know, you can create turnovers on Gino Smith.
00:37:30I know last week he did run for a touchdown.
00:37:32That's pretty rare.
00:37:33Gino is not a great scrambler.
00:37:34Like he's functional.
00:37:35Um, he's, I don't know.
00:37:36I mean, I, I haven't seen the 40 times in terms of the battle between him and Jacoby
00:37:40preset for, um, you know, the, the, the slowest quarterback in football, but he's probably
00:37:47on the list that Gerard Mayo, you know, made up on Monday, slowest black quarterback in
00:37:51the league.
00:37:52Like they're, they're in the conversation.
00:37:53Yeah.
00:37:54Yes.
00:37:55Um, Teddy Bridgewater sadly, uh, retired or else he would be the 10 time reigning champion
00:37:59for this award.
00:38:00Um, but you know, like, like, like Gino Smith is not someone who's going to make a lot of
00:38:04moves with his legs.
00:38:05He, last week, his scramble for touchdown was an exception.
00:38:07I think it was almost a surprise to the Broncos where like, they were not expecting him to
00:38:10scramble at all.
00:38:11So when he did, it was, it was wide open because they weren't expecting it at all.
00:38:15I think the Patriots are going to be a little smarter about that.
00:38:17It'll at least be, you're not going to spy him, but at least you're going to be thoughtful
00:38:20about your rush lanes, thoughtful about, um, you know, keeping eyes on the quarterback
00:38:24at all times, you're going to have the ability to do that.
00:38:26So I think you're going to see, you know, a guy who is a very accurate passer.
00:38:31That is the thing to me, you're going to look for in this game.
00:38:34You know, he, he's not going to miss a lot of throws and that is the, for the Patriots.
00:38:39Again, I think you're hoping for turnovers, not for him to miss wide open receivers.
00:38:42I just want to thank you in advance for me, the dream I'm going to have at 3 a.m.
00:38:47In the morning of Gino Smith doing something with teacups and I'm just going to have to
00:38:51wake up my wife and be like, why am I, is this Alice in Wonderland?
00:38:54It's Gino, like in the sequel, it's not Johnny Depp.
00:38:56And there's just from the comment you made, because that, that, you know, picture is just
00:39:00so vivid and so good.
00:39:02I'm like, I don't know why it's a teacup, but like, you can see it as soon as you said
00:39:05it.
00:39:06Yeah.
00:39:06So footballs, I don't know if you know this, Andrew don't fit into teacups.
00:39:09So I'm not sure why I even brought up that metaphor.
00:39:11I think it's like a baseball thing.
00:39:14Maybe it's a baseball thing that I've sort of taken and applied to football.
00:39:18But you know, that idea of like, can you fit the football into a incredibly small window?
00:39:24Like that, if you saw that CJ Stroud completion on third and long elite in the game against
00:39:29the Colts last week, that was a throw that had to go into the tiniest possible window,
00:39:34because otherwise it was going to be incomplete or out of bounds.
00:39:36And he fit it in the exact spot.
00:39:38Gino Smith has that ability as well.
00:39:40Okay.
00:39:40So we wrap up here, Seahawks offense versus Patriots defense.
00:39:43The number one area, it sounds like you and I are aligned.
00:39:45Like it is the passing game.
00:39:47I would go medium to deep pass game specifically, just because of how good Gino is in those
00:39:51areas.
00:39:51You look at PFF, you know, a lot of different breakdowns that'll tell you that's where they
00:39:55want to live.
00:39:55And we're still learning about this Ryan Grubb offense, which I'll give a couple of
00:39:59quotes here at the end, just to highlight, like, this is new.
00:40:02This is not unlike any other, or it's not like any other offense you've seen in the
00:40:05league, but is that where you land here?
00:40:07Number one danger zone?
00:40:08Yeah, I think so.
00:40:09I think you want to start from the top down.
00:40:11Just okay.
00:40:12You know, can we force them to go, you know, eight, nine, 10 plays on the field for a score
00:40:17every time?
00:40:17Because I think if you do, your hope is going to be that you can take advantage of the offensive
00:40:22line and you can force a sack.
00:40:23You can force a negative play.
00:40:25You can force a penalty.
00:40:28And then I think when you're in third and long, you feel good about your chances.
00:40:31Okay.
00:40:31So the last thing I'm going to say here about Ryan Grubb, who, you know, you talked about
00:40:35last year with Washington and they're throwing the ball down the field.
00:40:38They're running the ball very well.
00:40:39It's Michael Penix, Jalen Polk, Roma Dunze.
00:40:43Uh, I forget what's McMillan's first name.
00:40:44I know he's a mid-rounder this year, Jalen McMillan.
00:40:47So the thing that always had my eye in addition to Penix dropping these bombs and go to the
00:40:51national title game was how often they shifted in motion from like whatever formation you
00:40:56saw beginning was not anything that they said at the end.
00:40:58So Jonathan Jones told me this week, quote, it's not a historical offense.
00:41:02They've pulled things from places and other teams.
00:41:04It's not a Shanahan offense or West coast.
00:41:06They really kind of do their own thing.
00:41:08Kyle Duggar added, look, they build formations a whole lot different.
00:41:12They're not going to show it initially.
00:41:13They do a good job of showing you what they're going to, they're not going to be in, but
00:41:16they want to run the ball and get the ball downfield.
00:41:18So it's a lot of 11 personnel.
00:41:19You'll see the three receivers at all times.
00:41:21Their motion rate, according to your teammates South wall, there was 80% of all plays, which
00:41:26was top five last week and motion at the snap, they were top 10.
00:41:30So to me, the one, you know, I'm not flying the ointment, but the one, Hey, it's week
00:41:36two.
00:41:36Everyone's getting back into the rhythm of things is if you have a bad pre-snap reader,
00:41:41your eyes are in the wrong place, which this is what Seattle wants to test that might give
00:41:45the Patriots, even in a two high shell paying extra attention to DK Metcalf, a coverage
00:41:50bus that then invites a touchdown to go.
00:41:51How the hell did that?
00:41:53Yeah.
00:41:53I think you have to hope that you're, you're better than most other teams at that.
00:41:56And I think that is fair to say about the page.
00:41:58I think this is a very well-communicated team.
00:42:00Like you said, it's an experienced team that's played together a lot.
00:42:03So I think there's a lot of, you know, trust from spot to spot.
00:42:06I think, you know, what the guy next to you is doing.
00:42:08I mean, this is the classical, this bill Belichick do your job speech imaginable, but I do think
00:42:12like, you know, that is a strength for the Patriots defense.
00:42:16So still possible, obviously, but I think they're better equipped to fight that and
00:42:20battle that than most other defenses.
00:42:23Yeah.
00:42:23And Geron Mayo did say today, like, Hey, we need to find out how they want to play us,
00:42:26which is to say, like, you don't have many options, which is good on us, but that that'll
00:42:30kind of dictate our plan.
00:42:31They have a plan going into it, but it's, it's, it's part of, again, the chest mass,
00:42:35which is not only Patriots defense.
00:42:37It's also going to be an offense, which I will start in the obvious place bill.
00:42:40Um, when I was first dating my now wife, I, uh, made her chicken parm very, very early
00:42:46on and it goes great.
00:42:47Cause I have a killer freaking chicken parm bill.
00:42:51The problem was a couple months ago by, Hey, let me cook for you again.
00:42:54Great.
00:42:55It's chicken parm.
00:42:56And then three months later, I start doing this again because I've got one note.
00:43:00I play it.
00:43:00Well, I'm going to play the hits and her friends are going, did he make chicken parm again?
00:43:04Which is a way of asking you, can this Patriots offense develop a plan B?
00:43:08Do they have a second dish?
00:43:10Or like when you look at them this season, which we kind of hit that before, is it going
00:43:14to be run first chicken parm play ahead only kind of offense here?
00:43:18It's so funny.
00:43:19Cause I think with my wife, when I started dating her, it was the same thing, but eggplant
00:43:22farm as opposed to chicken parm.
00:43:26So basically the same, same idea here.
00:43:29I can't make many things.
00:43:30Eggplant parm is definitely like the, if I want to be a good partner, that is the thing
00:43:33I'm making.
00:43:33So, uh, slightly different on the same scenario.
00:43:38I would say this, like, you're going to run the ball.
00:43:42Like that is going to be your plan.
00:43:43A. And I think that's clear.
00:43:44I think you want to be, again, we talked about like run the ball, protect the football, don't
00:43:48make mistakes, all that stuff.
00:43:49I think that's not going to change.
00:43:51The one thing I was a little surprised not to see very much of was the play action game.
00:43:56And they were only three or five or 26 yards.
00:43:58And like, again, all this cliche in the book, you're going to run the ball and then you're
00:44:01going to run, play hard, play action off.
00:44:03Like everyone knows that I'm not like in the national football league.
00:44:06This is how we play in the national football league.
00:44:09You got to establish that.
00:44:11I'm like, no, the Patriots are going to run the ball.
00:44:12Fine.
00:44:13They are a big physical team.
00:44:15And I guess I wonder, Andrew, and this is something you're going to have much more insight
00:44:18than I will as someone who watches this team closely.
00:44:21How much of that do you think was their fear about protecting Jacoby percent on hard play
00:44:26action?
00:44:26You know, because they might not fight.
00:44:27They could drop Jacoby percent for a seven step drop very often in that game.
00:44:32So I think there's only about four or five other quarterbacks who use play action less
00:44:36often than Jacoby percent in week one.
00:44:38Now, part of that was they didn't throw the ball very often.
00:44:40I think part of it was the offensive line.
00:44:42But I'll be intrigued to see.
00:44:44You know, that's the thing I'm looking for is that next step.
00:44:46That plan B is OK.
00:44:48Mix it up a tiny bit.
00:44:49You know, let's see if we can get routine instead of linguine underneath the chicken
00:44:53pie.
00:44:54Let's see if we can get a fancy cheese thrown in there.
00:44:56But I think maybe mix in a little more play action, you know, try and move those linebackers
00:45:01around, because I think that's a place to start.
00:45:04But we'll talk about maybe some of the strengths of the Seahawks defense and why that could
00:45:06be concerning for other reasons.
00:45:08Yeah, this is going to be an Italian offense.
00:45:10That's what it is.
00:45:10But we can change the shape of the pasta.
00:45:12We can change the order of the heat.
00:45:13All these different things.
00:45:14I would say this.
00:45:15The play action point is a great one.
00:45:16I do think it was out of a fear of protection because they pulled their starting left tackle
00:45:20after a dozen steps.
00:45:21Who can see you?
00:45:22Chooks decor for entrepreneurial low.
00:45:24Everyone's locally least favorite offensive lineman through, you know, fault of his own.
00:45:28But like we all pick one punching bag.
00:45:30Unfortunately for very low, it's him.
00:45:33So the other part about this is Alex Van Pelt said this week he was surprised at how little
00:45:39that Cincinnati pressured, which to me was curious, because if you just kind of go into
00:45:44their shoes, you're the Bengals like they have a bad offensive line.
00:45:47We'll get home with Trey Hendrickson.
00:45:49We'll scheme up a couple of things.
00:45:50So the only blitz twice.
00:45:51But I think that dictated early.
00:45:54Hey, we're not going to run play action because we anticipate blitz.
00:45:57Then when they finally did run it, Jacoby percent missed on both of the bootlegs, which
00:46:01is another foundational part of this offense.
00:46:02So I think to answer my own question about the plan B, you do increase the play action,
00:46:07right?
00:46:08I think you get some more moving pocket stuff.
00:46:10They do run a fair amount of RPOs.
00:46:12There were only two screens as far as I counted, maybe even just one that the one to remind
00:46:16me of Stevenson.
00:46:17And then I would say more motion at the snap, which is not something Van Pelt majored in
00:46:21in Cleveland.
00:46:22But again, you talk about the less talent you have, the more coaching matters.
00:46:26You've got to mind every little edge and you have players who got some gravity to them.
00:46:30Pop Douglas is one.
00:46:31Stevenson obviously is another.
00:46:32So there's a lot of things here.
00:46:34But ultimately, yeah, like the umbrella, what's the category of this offense?
00:46:39It's a run first kind of meaty meat potatoes offense that you just need to dress up a little
00:46:44bit.
00:46:45And those are the ways I think they can do it.
00:46:47Yeah, and absolutely agree.
00:46:49I think the interesting thing about this game and how it's going to be so different from
00:46:54the Bengals game is the way Mike McDonald attacks opposing offenses and the strict thing
00:47:00he does.
00:47:00And I've watched a couple of McDonald clinics.
00:47:02I think I have a really good and I've, of course, watched plenty of Ravens game the
00:47:05past couple of years.
00:47:06I think I have a pretty good handle on what he focuses on as a defensive mind, a defensive
00:47:11play caller, a defensive game plan on a week to week basis.
00:47:13What he wants to do is figure out your protections and then beat the hell out of them in every
00:47:19single way.
00:47:19He wants to exploit every single protection rule you have.
00:47:23And I think the biggest concern for the Patriots in this game is when you have an inexperienced
00:47:28underwhelming offensive line.
00:47:30You want to keep the protection simple.
00:47:31You want to have it be really basic stuff.
00:47:35You want to have it be the safest stuff possible.
00:47:37And that is exactly what McDonald's going to exploit.
00:47:40And his big thing is the SIM pressure when a SIM pressure is essentially when you are
00:47:47showing a heavy blitz and then you manage to simultaneously get an overload, get a mismatch
00:47:53while dropping guys off into coverage and being safe, dropping seven guys into coverage,
00:47:57which creates possibilities for turnovers because guys are in places you don't expect.
00:48:00It creates free runners for sacks.
00:48:02It creates stress on the offensive line to adjust and adapt quickly.
00:48:06You have to change your protections at the line of scrimmage repeatedly.
00:48:09You have to be solid in your protections.
00:48:11You can't make mistakes.
00:48:12And then if you are just doing very simple protections reliably, Mike McDonald's still
00:48:17going to exploit that.
00:48:18And so the biggest concern for me in this game at the Patriots is just you have a very
00:48:24inexperienced offensive line.
00:48:25You have an offensive, like you said, was not very active before the snap, not giving
00:48:29the Seahawks or not giving, you know, I guess the Bengals actually, but when I get the Seahawks
00:48:32as well, a lot of confusion about what they were doing in terms of the coverage behind
00:48:37those plays.
00:48:38I think that is a recipe for disaster, a very static offense.
00:48:42Against the Seahawks defense with very simple protections is a absolute, um, you know, I'm
00:48:48trying to think of the right phrase, shooting gallery, rogues gallery, uh, shooting fish
00:48:53in a barrel, some, some kind of shooting fish, rogue bucket analogy.
00:48:57I can't think of you're on the receiving end of the bullet rather than the one pulling
00:49:01the trigger.
00:49:03Yeah, it's, it's, it's going to be easy for the Seahawks if that's the case.
00:49:06Yeah, I think that's an excellent point.
00:49:08And I wrote earlier this week, if they're, you know, asking around and finding out the
00:49:12Patriots are installing some of Mike McDonald stuff.
00:49:14So if you want to hear and understand like how good this stuff is, the Patriots who all
00:49:19learned under the master Bill Belichick said, no, we want some of that and put it into our
00:49:23system.
00:49:23They have not introduced it yet.
00:49:25The other part I would say is this Mike McDonald, you know, limited the Chiefs to 17 points
00:49:29in the AFC championship game, made fools out of the 49ers in San Francisco as a Ravens
00:49:34defensive coordinator last year.
00:49:35Like, oh, they had more talent than Seattle does.
00:49:37He got the talent out of there.
00:49:39Like Jadavian cloudy at age, let's guess 47, um, his best year ever under Mike McDonald
00:49:46last year.
00:49:46This is an excellent, excellent football coach by the any way you want to slice it up and
00:49:51what they're doing.
00:49:51So to your point about breaking down the protections, yes, it's true.
00:49:54Alex van Pelt has some experience, um, going up against this, but you have a practice squad
00:49:58player for now at left guard, a rookie at right guard.
00:50:01And I talked to David Andrews, the man between them this week and said, okay, to walk me
00:50:04through these pressure packages, maybe you could do it.
00:50:06He said, no, which I totally understand and respect, but also was like, look, it's, it's
00:50:12the unknown rusher, right?
00:50:13Where are the blitzers?
00:50:14That's going to be our problem.
00:50:16It's not, where are the rushers?
00:50:17It's the second, third level guys, because Mike McDonald, either in Baltimore or Seattle
00:50:22gets more creative with those in the SIM pressures than anyone else.
00:50:24So is there, is there any like, I don't know, like Mike McDonald for dummies that you could
00:50:29give us?
00:50:29Cause I didn't know you had gone to those clinics or studied those things just very
00:50:32quickly about what he's doing.
00:50:34Yeah, for sure.
00:50:35So basically, you know, the biggest thing is he wants to understand your protections
00:50:39first.
00:50:39And this is a classic coaching thing, like Kyle Shanahan.
00:50:41The famous thing about Kyle Shanahan is to be a great offensive coach.
00:50:44You have to understand defense from the ground up so you can break every rule that defense
00:50:50has with Mike McDonald.
00:50:51It's the same thing.
00:50:52He wants to see your protection and then that gives him the ability to break it.
00:50:56So let's say, you know, you're going to have what people would call a punt return rush
00:51:00on, right?
00:51:01Like seven guys at the line of scrimmage.
00:51:03You don't know who's coming.
00:51:04You might have six guys to block it up.
00:51:06So, you know, okay, if we have six guys to block it up and we spin to the left, we're
00:51:10going to slide everyone to the left.
00:51:11Okay.
00:51:11We have the first six guys from the left blocked.
00:51:14That seventh guy on the right is hot.
00:51:16So if that guy comes, Jacoby Brissett knows, okay, I have to throw the football before
00:51:19that guy gets to me because there's no one to block that guy.
00:51:22And on paper, that's kind of a logical thing, right?
00:51:25Like you can protect against the big blitz.
00:51:26You have the guys to do it.
00:51:28You know, okay, this is the one guy we can't block.
00:51:30So you relatively, you're good that you have, you know, um, you have four pass pass receivers
00:51:36versus, um, four guys in coverage.
00:51:38So if everyone comes, it's four, it's cover zero four and four.
00:51:41If you know, uh, six guys come, you're protected.
00:51:43If not, you're, you're good to go.
00:51:44So what Mike McDonald does is know how you're going to react to that different look.
00:51:50He shows by sliding left and then he's going to drop, you know, three guys on the left
00:51:56side who are theoretically assigned to different offensive linemen back into coverage.
00:52:01And the four guys from the right, including that unblocked guy are all going to blitz.
00:52:05So now you have three linemen to block four guys.
00:52:08You have one guy coming free and you still have seven guys in coverage because those
00:52:12three guys who were threatening left side are now dropping it to coverage.
00:52:16And then the three offensive linemen who were supposed to block those guys,
00:52:19they're just hanging out.
00:52:20They're just going to have a cup of tea.
00:52:22Um, they're going to chat, uh, while Jacoby reset is, uh, murdered by the unblocked offensive
00:52:28line or unblocked pass rusher.
00:52:29So that's what McDonald does is he, you know, forces you to do something with your protection,
00:52:35knows what you're going to do.
00:52:36And that does something to exploit that getting all the benefits of having an unblocked rusher
00:52:42without the downside of having to send a ton of guys and having nobody back in coverage.
00:52:45Now, occasionally he'll big blitz occasionally he'll mix it up.
00:52:48Um, but that is sort of the core tentative.
00:52:50Let's take advantage of what you do on protection.
00:52:52And then we're going to exploit that way.
00:52:54Some of your offensive linemen to do nothing and then still get free runners on your quarterback.
00:53:00And that's, that was exceptionally said.
00:53:02I think even to think of it as even simpler, like if you're trying to identify what rate,
00:53:06um, is this defense playing man coverage on third down offensively, we're going to build
00:53:11in 60, 70, 80% of our third down game plan to beat man coverage.
00:53:16That's what he's doing.
00:53:17Like you can identify protections.
00:53:18You really get into the weeds, you know, like anyone at home watching, right?
00:53:21Oh, they're playing man to man.
00:53:23The other part about what you just described too, is it's not only we have seven in coverage
00:53:27and there are a lot of teams that run variations of this, but they'll run a trap where, you know,
00:53:31if you imagine the scenario that you presented seven at the line, okay, we're going to slide
00:53:36to the left.
00:53:36And if I'm a quarterback who has two receivers to the right, and I'm looking at that right
00:53:40side, because as you described, that's the hot read, the hot rusher, if he comes and I'll throw
00:53:44it, I'll see if that's a nickel off of the inside receiver.
00:53:49I'll just throw a quick out route.
00:53:50He's uncovered his guy's blitzing the trap coverage behind that says the outside receiver
00:53:56to that same side is looking at the slot.
00:53:58We'll jump the out route because he knows as the defensive line drops on the left side
00:54:03and everyone spins over the safety over the top says, I'll take that outside receiver.
00:54:07You can jump that little out route.
00:54:09And it's just, it's just devious.
00:54:11Like this, this, this shit's great, which is a long way of nerding out and saying, uh,
00:54:16the Patriots, if you're most concerned about something, it's past protection.
00:54:19Yeah.
00:54:20Yeah.
00:54:20It's past protection.
00:54:21And it's not just the physical one-on-one matchup.
00:54:23So just, you know, like, like last week, like it wasn't like the, the Trey Hendrickson was
00:54:28a secret.
00:54:28He was going to go up against two support for it.
00:54:30He was just beating him one-on-one.
00:54:32There's not that great of a pass rusher in this next day of good players.
00:54:35I know Williams is a good player.
00:54:37Um, you know, they're not going to have a channel new OSU, but they have good players
00:54:40up front.
00:54:41I don't think they have anyone as good as Hendrickson, but it's more of the mental game.
00:54:44It's more of the assignment game.
00:54:45It's more of the, you know, can we get our pass rushers against nobody?
00:54:50Can we blow up a play before it happens?
00:54:51And then to your point, you know, given that you're, you're asking Jacoby percent, who
00:54:55I think is a very smart quarterback to figure out stuff on the fly, to find those solutions
00:54:59on the fly, to find those hot reads with an inexperienced group of receivers.
00:55:03Well, maybe sometimes, you know, the receiver doesn't get the message.
00:55:05Maybe he doesn't realize the blitz is coming and maybe he just runs his normal vertical
00:55:09route and Jacoby percent, there's nobody.
00:55:11And it's a pick six, like that sort of pressure creates these kinds of problems for opposing
00:55:16teams, opposing quarterbacks.
00:55:17It forces you into mistakes.
00:55:19We saw in that angles Niners game that you mentioned.
00:55:22I mean, there were a couple of plays that were fluky, you know, a pass got thrown up
00:55:24in the air and got tipped up and, you know, bounced around.
00:55:26That stuff happens, but there were throws back pretty made in that game where he would
00:55:30not make them a normal games because he wasn't as stressed.
00:55:32He wasn't as flummoxed.
00:55:33He was more confident with where he knew to go with the football.
00:55:35I think there's a question of, you know, as the game goes on.
00:55:38This is sort of the the classic example of and it's a different kind of defense, but
00:55:43the Belichick ghost story, right?
00:55:45Like, you know, it's Sam Darnold.
00:55:46He didn't trust where to go with the football.
00:55:48He didn't trust where he could go in coverage.
00:55:49He didn't trust who was coming and who wasn't coming and didn't trust that the Jets could
00:55:53block that.
00:55:53And that's what leads to quarterback seeing ghosts.
00:55:56And, you know, in the worst case scenario for the Patriots, it's that kind of game where
00:56:00Jacoby percent just get sacked eight or nine times.
00:56:02Doesn't know where the pressure is coming from.
00:56:04Doesn't know who's going to protect it.
00:56:05Doesn't know where to go with the football.
00:56:07If there is pressure and the offense just breaks down.
00:56:09Now, that is a unlikely scenario.
00:56:11I think Jacoby percent is a much smarter quarterback than Sam Darnold.
00:56:13The protections are going to be better.
00:56:14I think the receivers are going to be okay.
00:56:16But I do think that is the worst case scenario, given how good Mike McDonald is as a disruptor
00:56:22on defense.
00:56:23And I'll say to, you know, I don't know what percent of his contract says, like, you know,
00:56:28you need to win in the AFC West, but I know it's a significant percentage that that's
00:56:31the reason he's here.
00:56:32Like facing Kyle Shanahan twice a year.
00:56:34Sean McVay.
00:56:35He solved a lot of those Shanahan-esque offenses in a way that other defensive coordinators
00:56:38just haven't.
00:56:39And this offense falls under that tree, frankly, like the way that they implement a lot of
00:56:45wide zone boots off of that.
00:56:46And it's more old school Shanahan, but moving on.
00:56:49Seattle, in case you were feeling bad enough about the Patriots offensively, had the lowest
00:56:54percentage of runs that went for five yards or more allowed of any defense in week one.
00:56:59And this is not the Broncos offense.
00:57:00That was rookie quarterback, you know, but that to me, when you look at Leonard Williams
00:57:05will be an issue.
00:57:06Byron Murphy, I think, could have a field day.
00:57:07They're rookie out of Texas.
00:57:08They drafted a defense tackle.
00:57:09Boy, Mafé, more of a pass rusher.
00:57:11But like, these are good guys up front.
00:57:13If you're designing it very quickly, a run game plan here, Bill, for the Patriots to
00:57:17find some either soft spots or just ride their strengths, which is Mike Unwin and David Andrews.
00:57:21What does that run plan kind of look like?
00:57:24I think it's a lot of outside stuff.
00:57:25I think this is a probably a zone heavy day for the Patriots, just because you might not
00:57:29have the physical pieces to match up one on one up front.
00:57:32I think you want to get those guys on the move.
00:57:35And I think you want to sort of dare McDonald to not do exotic stuff.
00:57:41And I think one way to beat, you know, a lot of smaller boxes, a lot of guys, you know,
00:57:45at the line of scrimmage, get the ball outside, get your pitches going.
00:57:48I mean, you think about the Falcons Patriots game from a few years ago, the thing the Falcons
00:57:54did that really worked early in that game was a lot of crack toss, a lot of stuff to
00:57:57get the ball out on the perimeter, you know, get those linebackers moving, get the Superbowl.
00:58:02Yes, you know, get the Patriots who have had who are very, you know, box every team at
00:58:07that time, get them out away from that space and force them to kind of, you know, get on
00:58:11the edge and tackle.
00:58:13I think that's where you probably go if you're the Patriots.
00:58:16So I think that might be the game plan here.
00:58:18But I think a lot just comes down to what the game script is.
00:58:20You know, if you can keep it close, you can do that.
00:58:23But if this game, they get behind early, that's trouble for the Patriots.
00:58:27Hopefully, that's not going to be the case.
00:58:29Yeah, I would add to that, too.
00:58:31Talk about tackling in space.
00:58:32I think that's something every offensive coordinator should have in their bag weeks one through
00:58:35four anyway, right?
00:58:36Tackling is not as tight as it should be.
00:58:38Rayshawn Jenkins safety.
00:58:39They signed up for agency that I kind of like for the Pats.
00:58:41He missed three times, according to PFF Jerome Baker missed twice and like twice is like,
00:58:46OK, but when you get in the teens, which they were missed tackles, that to me says, OK,
00:58:50we need pop Douglas in space.
00:58:52Minor Stevenson to some of those crack tosses, maybe some reverses, just eyes in places where
00:58:57they shouldn't be or just get our best guys with the ball, because more often than not,
00:59:01like guys miss this time of year rather than if you were going to see them in December.
00:59:04All right, let's go three to one.
00:59:06We got three matchups, two keys, one wildcard thought my first matchup.
00:59:10And then I'll let you go.
00:59:11And I'll have the third is Leonard Williams against David Andrews, because that guy is
00:59:15still a powerful defensive tackle play across the line.
00:59:18But that to me, like they need the Patriots do their second best offensive lineman to
00:59:22win against a new tier guy.
00:59:23He's going to see a lot of.
00:59:25Yeah, I think that's a logical place to start.
00:59:27And David Andrews is going to have a lot of protection responsibilities in this game as
00:59:30well.
00:59:31You know, he's going to have to hold up.
00:59:32I think they're going to probably put, you know, I think because he's such an experienced
00:59:35offensive lineman, they'll probably try to cover him up at times, try to force him to,
00:59:40you know, have to block immediately.
00:59:43So I'd be intrigued to see how what their fronts look like in this game for Seattle.
00:59:46I have DK versus Christian Gonzalez.
00:59:49Again, I don't think it's going to be in every single matchup situation here, but you're
00:59:53going to see him in key situations.
00:59:54They're going to trust him because like you said, the height is significant here.
00:59:57The physicality is significant here.
01:00:00You know, not a lot of teams have a Christian Gonzalez to work with.
01:00:03The Seahawks actually are one.
01:00:04Devon Witherspoon is an awesome football player for Seattle and their secondary, probably
01:00:07their best player at any position on the field.
01:00:10I think that's a, you know, probably the biggest matchup for the Patriots on defense.
01:00:14If they choose to play defense that way and have a lot of Gonzalez versus DK one-on-one.
01:00:19Yeah.
01:00:19I'm going to build off of that for the third one.
01:00:21And then we go to two keys is the safeties versus Gino Smith, right?
01:00:25Like that count mouse game.
01:00:26Patriots were up early.
01:00:27Part of that was scheming game plan.
01:00:28But like once you get into the thick of it, you talk about trying to fool him into turnovers.
01:00:32You can give up an explosive player too.
01:00:34If you get the turnover and return the defense's version of that kind of explosive play.
01:00:38So whether it's disguise, it'll be maybe occasional doubles, whatever they're going to do.
01:00:43And Duggar is limited on Thursday.
01:00:44We haven't got the full practice report just yet today, Friday.
01:00:47But that to me is a really good match, which also will depend on them sifting through all
01:00:51those shifts emotions, right?
01:00:52Like what actual formation is this?
01:00:54They're experienced guys.
01:00:55They should be able to handle that.
01:00:56But you know, Seattle is also going to have new stuff to throw at them.
01:00:59So that that mental game between Smith in the safeties is going to be a big one.
01:01:04For sure.
01:01:04And like I said, I think it's also that's going to be dictated by the situation, right?
01:01:08Like if the Patriots are competitive, it's going to be a different story.
01:01:11If they're behind early, it's going to be dealing with a lot of physicality, probably
01:01:16more two tight end sets from the Seahawks if they do get ahead.
01:01:19And then we saw the Seahawks where the Broncos down as that game went along last week.
01:01:23Yeah.
01:01:24All right.
01:01:24Two keys.
01:01:25What's your key?
01:01:27My key.
01:01:27And you actually alluded to this earlier.
01:01:29So I had this in my notes.
01:01:31So I'm not cheating off of you.
01:01:32Drives that end with zero sacks and zero turnovers.
01:01:37So drives that end with punts, drives that end with field goals.
01:01:40Ideally for the Patriots, drives that end in touchdowns, but drives with zero negative
01:01:45plays.
01:01:46I got a few of the yard.
01:01:47It's okay.
01:01:47But no sacks, no turnovers.
01:01:48I would say what's the number?
01:01:52If the Patriots have eight of those in this game, they win this game.
01:01:57I think that's a big ask, given how good McDonald is in terms of eight fields.
01:02:01I mean, if you estimate 12 to 13 possessions, yeah, seven, eight.
01:02:05Yeah.
01:02:06Wow.
01:02:06I mean, I, I, I, maybe, maybe that's like an obvious thing.
01:02:10If they score 40 points, they're going to win this game.
01:02:13But I think in terms of what's a realistic thing they can do, they can avoid sacks.
01:02:18They can avoid turnovers.
01:02:19Might be a conservative game plan, but I think that's the key thing I'm going to look for
01:02:23in this game on offense.
01:02:25So one thing we have not talked about now going on almost close to an hour is special
01:02:29teams.
01:02:29And A, because it's a podcast that we want people to listen to.
01:02:33B, it's because there's just an obvious point here that I'll add to the key, though.
01:02:37You talk about the Patriots mining edges that they need to.
01:02:40They did that, obviously, against Cincinnati.
01:02:41And I'm not talking about the long snapper having a forced fumble, but I'm talking about
01:02:45Marcus Jones show up as a returner.
01:02:47I'm talking about having your kick coverage team, Brandon Schooler, hit 22 and a half
01:02:50miles per hour and get there first to build in a little bit more cushion.
01:02:54Like the field position battle here, like a lot of those scoring games, battle offensive
01:02:57lines, and probably minimal explosive plays is going to be huge.
01:03:02And Seattle, as I said at the top, 27th.
01:03:04For now, it's one week in DV away on special teams.
01:03:07Patriots are eight right now.
01:03:08That is their quote unquote best phase, which we know will not hold up over the entire season.
01:03:12But they've got players out positions, not to mention Bryce Behringer, like could kick
01:03:17one close close to the city.
01:03:20Like that dude's got a hose for a leg.
01:03:22So I just think that's an area to where like you just you need to start five to 10 yards
01:03:26closer to the end zone than Seattle does.
01:03:27I think you really, really want to win this game.
01:03:29Yeah, I mean, Patriots last year, 32nd in special teams DV away.
01:03:32That was they had terrible special teams.
01:03:34A lot of that was the kicking.
01:03:35And that's improved this year.
01:03:36Obviously, I think we're going to think it's going to improve this year.
01:03:38But so far, it's so good.
01:03:40But I do think that is a place for the Patriots.
01:03:42Again, you're going to want to get your edges.
01:03:44You're going to find spots here and there.
01:03:45Like you're not going to have, you know, better receivers.
01:03:47You can't make that happen overnight.
01:03:48It's not going to happen with, you know, in 100 games, you might have better play from
01:03:51your receivers and two or three of those games versus the Seahawks.
01:03:54But special teams, you can do.
01:03:56That seems more plausible to me.
01:03:57Yeah.
01:03:58All right.
01:03:58One wildcard thought.
01:03:59This is for folks that are new.
01:04:00Anything tangential to the game.
01:04:02It could be a matchup, a key weather, historical, just random thought to kind of cap us here.
01:04:09Seahawks traveling.
01:04:11I mean, the numbers on traveling to the East Coast historically, it's been a problem for
01:04:16West Coast teams.
01:04:17They usually underperform.
01:04:18Now, the Seahawks felt like under Pete Carroll, they found their formula.
01:04:22They travel early in the week.
01:04:23They stay on West Coast time.
01:04:24And their record improved significantly with Pete Carroll than it had with the prior regime.
01:04:30I'm going to say I think the Seahawks were good against the East Coast teams because
01:04:34they were really good for most of the Pete Carroll era.
01:04:37I don't know if that was Pete's travel formula.
01:04:39They did go two and one last year, but the wins they had were over the Giants and Tennessee.
01:04:45They got blown out by the Baltimore Ravens, 37 to three.
01:04:48So they've kept with that.
01:04:50But let's see.
01:04:51Right.
01:04:51Let's see how they look early in this game.
01:04:53Do they look sluggish?
01:04:53Do they look tired?
01:04:55Does that even matter?
01:04:56I don't know.
01:04:57But I just think that is the one thing thinking about, you know, we normally sort of give
01:05:02teams a penalty when the West Coast teams travel to the East Coast for a one o'clock
01:05:05game.
01:05:06And it seems like some subs, at least the Seahawks, believe there are exceptions to
01:05:10that rule.
01:05:10Maybe we'll find out.
01:05:12That's a good one.
01:05:13I know everyone here, I think picking the Pats locally, that's reason number one.
01:05:18Like, oh, you know, they got to travel 2,500 miles, kid.
01:05:21Like, who are we kidding?
01:05:23I would say, yeah, I don't know.
01:05:25Like, I haven't studied it enough.
01:05:26It's an advantage for the Patriots to be at home and the Seahawks making the longest trip
01:05:29of the season.
01:05:30But we'll see where that surfaces.
01:05:32Mine goes to a name I don't think most folks have thought about here in a while.
01:05:36Pharoah Brown apparently wants this to be a revenge game.
01:05:40This came up at the McDonald press conference on Wednesday where he came up and he didn't
01:05:45play last week and he practiced on Wednesday, didn't on Thursday.
01:05:48And I'm just wondering, Bill, like, I used to umpire Little League and I had an intentional
01:05:54bad call.
01:05:55It's a long, long story.
01:05:56That's the last game I ever called.
01:05:57Like, if I, for whatever reason, went back to that Little League field, do I get a revenge
01:06:02game?
01:06:02Because if Pharoah Brown gets these revenge games of all players in the NFL, what are
01:06:06we doing here?
01:06:07And I will add this.
01:06:08He said similar things to us at the start of last year.
01:06:11And a very warm, welcoming, open guy.
01:06:14Really enjoyed my interactions with Pharoah Brown.
01:06:16But he said, I'm looking forward to playing the Colts.
01:06:19I can't wait for that game.
01:06:19They caught me.
01:06:20They didn't believe me.
01:06:21He had one more tackle that he had catch in that disastrous game that hopefully everyone
01:06:26can forget about in Germany.
01:06:27So like, am I being a jerk?
01:06:30Jerk or no jerk?
01:06:30I guess what I'm asking here at the end of the Pharoah Brown ring.
01:06:33You're not being a jerk, but I think this happens more than you think.
01:06:35I mean, or maybe not what you think, but more than people think like NFL players will find
01:06:41any pretense to believe that they are being doubted.
01:06:43I mean, the famous one is right.
01:06:45The Tom Brady.
01:06:45Everyone believes we suck quote from the playoff run where it's like, I don't think a single
01:06:51person who you would care about believes that you suck, Tom Brady and the Patriots.
01:06:56That is not a real thing that really happened.
01:06:58But if you can convince yourself that something is meaningful, you're going to, you know,
01:07:02maybe you're going to be more motivated.
01:07:04Maybe you need something just to get up because football is so tough.
01:07:07You know, I don't believe that the Patriots did Pharoah Brown dirty.
01:07:10I don't believe that in his heart of hearts, 20 years from now,
01:07:13Pharoah Brown, a retired, happy, contented Pharoah Brown will sit here and say, man,
01:07:18I really hate those Patriots.
01:07:19But for a week, if you needed to get up for the game, I'm not going to blame you.
01:07:22Go for it, Pharoah Brown.
01:07:24Yeah, look, I would have kept them.
01:07:26So I'm not doing the like, you know, be critical of the guy in the back way.
01:07:29Like, oh, I didn't really mean it.
01:07:30Like, I'll stand by that and tell you, I enjoy my time with him.
01:07:32And I think it's a third blocking tight end.
01:07:34He would be great for what they need right now.
01:07:36Well, Andrew, I don't think Pharoah Brown is going to tune in for that part.
01:07:40I think he turned the show off when he heard you dismissing him.
01:07:43He's like, screw Andrew Callahan.
01:07:45This is a revenge game for me.
01:07:47He's going to score a touchdown.
01:07:48He's going to point at you in the press box and say, that's one more touchdown than I
01:07:53had in that Colts game last year.
01:07:54Huh?
01:07:55Yeah.
01:07:55And, you know, he's going to be holding up a middle finger when he says, that's one more
01:07:58touchdown.
01:07:58That'd be in my general direction.
01:08:01All right.
01:08:01Prediction time.
01:08:02And we'll get you out of here.
01:08:03Actually, Kian White, future king of cringe comedy, I believe, is going to finish this
01:08:07up with a four-minute drill recorded with him in the locker room earlier this week.
01:08:10But prediction, am I getting birds from Seahawks fair?
01:08:13Who wins?
01:08:16I'm going to pick the Patriots.
01:08:19Maybe this is me falling in love with my preseason prediction.
01:08:22Maybe it's me just being too hyped about what we saw last week.
01:08:25I do think the Patriots are really good at communicating.
01:08:29I think it plays a big role in this game in terms of their ability to cover on defense.
01:08:34I think they can give Gino some trouble.
01:08:35I think they can control the line of scrimmage on defense.
01:08:39The offense is going to be scary.
01:08:41I think it's going to be a ugly, low-scoring game.
01:08:45And in that kind of game, I think playing at home is a big difference.
01:08:49I think playing on your body clock is a big difference.
01:08:51I think having a special team's advantage can be a big difference.
01:08:54So I will say, like, the Patriots 16, Seahawks 13, maybe, like a really low-scoring game,
01:09:01kind of similar to last week.
01:09:04I think the Patriots get the dub.
01:09:06So we just played jerk or no jerk.
01:09:08You said no jerk.
01:09:09Everyone listening now is going to say jerk.
01:09:12I have the same score.
01:09:13Just scratch that and reverse it.
01:09:14Seahawks 16, Patriots 13, which feels very much like it's a three and a half point spread.
01:09:20Week two, pick the favorite, but the Pats technically cover kind of like,
01:09:23OK, cool, take your prediction.
01:09:26But for all the reasons you said, I think it will be ugly on offense.
01:09:29I think the talent disparity is notable on both sides.
01:09:33And there's just one error that it takes for DK to spring looser.
01:09:37Tyler Lockett, we really didn't even talk about, led them in catches and receiving yards.
01:09:39And people know Tyler Lockett.
01:09:40But it's not as simple, again, as it was last week.
01:09:43Shut down Jamar Chase.
01:09:45Get out of there with a win.
01:09:46There are more weapons here.
01:09:47But it's wacky.
01:09:49It's week two.
01:09:51This is awesome, Bill.
01:09:52We went double what I told you.
01:09:54And you're still sitting here.
01:09:55So thank you very much for kind of giving us the time and the wisdom and, you know,
01:09:58making my prediction, making me look like a jerk at the end.
01:10:01But I think, look, I could see it both ways.
01:10:03I've gotten more hopeful the more I've looked at this game as the week's gone on.
01:10:07Yeah, it's a blast, Andrew.
01:10:08Love talking about football.
01:10:09And this is a really fun conversation.
01:10:10So happy to do it.
01:10:11And hopefully I'll be right.
01:10:14If not, well, they only got to win five in the big picture for me to feel good about it
01:10:18the whole year.
01:10:19So we can bank a couple losses now that we started 1-0.
01:10:22But let's see if the Patriots pull out and start 2-0.
01:10:24Could anybody have anticipated the Patriots starting 2-0 this year?
01:10:27It's not out of the realm of possibility.
01:10:30Then that creates a universe in which they're 3-0.
01:10:32Thank you to the New York Jets, who until last January had not beaten them
01:10:37since the Obama administration, which was my favorite fact towards the end of last season.
01:10:41RIP now.
01:10:42But like that, I don't.
01:10:45I'm glad I'll have a full weekend and then a full week to wrap my head around the 3-0
01:10:49New England Patriots if it comes to that.
01:10:50But we're getting ourselves ahead of time of what will be a Thursday night game in less
01:10:54than a week.
01:10:55Yeah.
01:10:55Yeah.
01:10:55I mean, I think it'll be a fun short week.
01:10:58I mean, the Jets did not look great in week one.
01:11:01So they're a vulnerable football team.
01:11:03Patriots, not saying they're going to be 3-0.
01:11:05I figure they'll probably lose one of these next two games.
01:11:07But again, who could have anticipated we'd even be having that possibility of a conversation
01:11:13heading into week two?
01:11:14Yeah.
01:11:15I appreciate you, Bill.
01:11:16Thank you so much.
01:11:17Thanks so much, Andrew.
01:11:18You're with Keon White.
01:11:19Another four-minute drill on the Pat's Interference podcast.
01:11:21Keon just got the rundown.
01:11:22Football to non-football.
01:11:24We'll start the clock.
01:11:24Go till there's four minutes left.
01:11:26Keon, first question.
01:11:29How long would I need to train to be you in an arm wrestling contest?
01:11:33All your life.
01:11:34All my life?
01:11:35Yeah.
01:11:37Is there anyone in here that could arm wrestle you?
01:11:41Maybe Wise, Farms.
01:11:44They work out a lot.
01:11:45They work out in the morning a lot, for sure.
01:11:46So just a D-lineman?
01:11:47Yeah, maybe.
01:11:48Yeah, for sure.
01:11:49All right.
01:11:49Football question.
01:11:50I think D-linemen generally are underrated as far as what you have to do mentally, right?
01:11:53Going into each play, what you're looking for.
01:11:55Can you give us a mental checklist?
01:11:57You get the call, what you're looking for, what you're doing next.
01:12:00Yeah, so prior to the call, you need to see what the down at distance is.
01:12:04Then once you get the call, you need to see where you're lining up with.
01:12:07You need to see the back location, where the quarterback's at,
01:12:10what's the receiver's stances, sets, splits,
01:12:14offense alignment stances, splits.
01:12:16You need to understand where your pressures are coming from behind you.
01:12:20And then you need to understand what the tendency and the
01:12:24offense wants to do in the situation that you're in.
01:12:26Got it.
01:12:27So it's like going to class for 60 times
01:12:29based on how many snaps you have in a particular game.
01:12:31Back to non-football.
01:12:32A person in the world, quarterback or non-quarterback, you would most like to sack?
01:12:39Probably my father.
01:12:40My dad.
01:12:41Why's that?
01:12:42Just to pretty much talk shit.
01:12:43I don't know.
01:12:44We got a pretty competitive relationship.
01:12:46So definitely non-quarterback, my dad.
01:12:48Got it.
01:12:49Back to football.
01:12:50You mentioned pressure.
01:12:51Talk to us about your favorite pressure.
01:12:52It could be a blitz, a simulated pressure, or a certain rush stunt.
01:12:55What does it look like?
01:12:56How does it work?
01:12:58Favorite pressure?
01:12:58Anyone where I could just run straight.
01:13:00So anything like that, that's my favorite one.
01:13:03All right.
01:13:03Yeah.
01:13:04Looked like that happened a couple times in Cincy.
01:13:05Yeah.
01:13:06All right, here we go.
01:13:07We're almost at two minutes here in the four-minute drill.
01:13:10Give us a moment, if this has ever happened, where Keon White cried in a movie.
01:13:14Have you ever cried in a movie?
01:13:15Cried in a movie?
01:13:17Nah.
01:13:18I think the last time I cried in the last 20 years is probably when I got drafted.
01:13:22That's it?
01:13:23The last 20 years?
01:13:24Yeah.
01:13:26I don't know.
01:13:27Maybe when I was getting whoopings when I was a kid.
01:13:30Other than that, I'm not crying for real.
01:13:32I'm not a crier.
01:13:33Did you ever come close to crying in a non-football, non-whooping setting?
01:13:37Nah, never.
01:13:39I don't remember.
01:13:40I couldn't tell you.
01:13:41All right.
01:13:41Give us a scouting report.
01:13:42Keon White and Keon White.
01:13:44Keon White?
01:13:45What do you mean Keon White?
01:13:46If I'm with the Seahawks right now and I'm reading their scouting report of Keon White,
01:13:49what does it say?
01:13:51Um, I don't know.
01:13:52I never really stopped to think about things like that.
01:13:54Like, I kind of just like...
01:13:55We got some time now.
01:13:56Yeah.
01:13:57So I just, I'm just gonna run fast.
01:13:59I'm gonna just go chase down plays.
01:14:01So I guess you got to finish the blocks for real.
01:14:04When this person texts you a good game or good play, it means a little bit more.
01:14:09Who is that person for you?
01:14:11Probably my coaches.
01:14:12Those are the ones that know.
01:14:13I feel like with the whole PFF and all these commentators and everything like that,
01:14:18how are you going to grade somebody off of something you don't know to play?
01:14:21So your coaches know best.
01:14:23I guess those are the ones that mean the most.
01:14:26What's the coach who meant the most?
01:14:28You got this text and maybe it was surprising or it just meant more because you were close.
01:14:32This coach is different from the rest.
01:14:34I mean, the coach I got now.
01:14:35So like Jerry, DC.
01:14:38So those are the ones that's coaching me right now.
01:14:40So those are the ones that mean the most to me right now, for real.
01:14:43All right.
01:14:44Cheat day.
01:14:45What's Keon White eating breakfast, lunch and dinner?
01:14:47What are you gorging on?
01:14:49So like my Tuesdays, I cook on the grill.
01:14:51So I cook on the grill, have some people over and those are my things.
01:14:54I love the grill as much as possible.
01:14:57So that's my cheat day meal.
01:14:58What's on the grill?
01:15:00Yesterday, I did jerk chicken, the bourbon glazed salmon, cabbage, anything.
01:15:08I throw up anything on the grill for real.
01:15:09You have any sports writers over ever?
01:15:12No, no sports, right?
01:15:13It's just all right.
01:15:14We'll work on that last one.
01:15:16Used to play tight end ex-defensive players here have caught a couple passes.
01:15:19Mike Ray will be the most famous among them.
01:15:21Are you ready to catch a touchdown pass this year if need be?
01:15:24Yeah, for sure.
01:15:25I never caught a touchdown pass in college.
01:15:28So I feel like I got to get one eventually.
01:15:29All right.
01:15:30Keep an eye out for me.
01:15:30Keon White play a little offense, of course, on defense running straight.
01:15:33That's scouting award.
01:15:34Appreciate you, man.
01:15:35Sure.
01:15:35No problem.

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