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00:00But after this Thursday night into a Friday in Sao Paulo, make
00:07sure you are salivating for Saturday in week number two.
00:12What a great weekend to Slate that we have in college
00:15football and to welcome us into week number two in the second
00:19full Saturday. It is Mark Zinno known as the mouth in the
00:22south here on the early lines. You know, thank you so much for
00:26joining us here on this Thursday. Gentlemen. It's just
00:30a wonderful day to be an American. It's a wonderful day
00:33to talk about college football and DRS is Sympathica with me
00:39and you have you have your mindset on other things. So I'm
00:41sure this will be a very good segment for us. See that's not
00:45true. Other things would have actually worked if this was
00:48still the NFL segment. My mind is solely on college football.
00:52So now we talk some CFB again in this time in September. Now
00:59it's like the George Costanza meme. It's soup season. I gotta
01:04start shifting into that Mark Zinno becomes the mouth in the
01:08south and now it's time for his SEC picks.
01:18Now you might look across the Saturday slate in week number
01:22two and say to yourself, there's only two ranked versus
01:25ranked matchups. Is it really that monumental of a weekend? A
01:28lot of good games and then a couple of great games in both
01:33of those ranked games feature an SEC program. We start with by
01:38far the game of the week in Ann Arbor, a top ten tilt between
01:44Texas and Michigan Zinno. Let's start with the line movement
01:48that we have seen for this matchup inside the big house on
01:52Saturday afternoon when the line came out earlier this
01:55summer, it was the Longhorns already booked as a three and a
01:58half point favorite against the rainy national title winners
02:01that caught some people by surprise Michigan at home the
02:04last few years has been darn good. Now after week number one
02:09Texas shuts out Colorado State Michigan a little bit leaky
02:13against Fresno State in the big house. The line is north of a
02:18touchdown. Has it worked too far in favor of Texas? I think
02:24the line is about right. You know, you look at that total
02:27though, you know, you start to get into a range where you're
02:30asking yourself. How does an under come in in Texas still
02:33cover the number right? Like you have to get into this range
02:36where you're sitting there at 28, you know, 2817 kind of
02:42final that gets you where it is. I mean, it's it's just those
02:45kind of numbers when you look at it and I don't know that
02:47necessarily favors Texas. You have to rely on Michigan's
02:50defense here. You mentioned they were leaky right like if you
02:53hit the rewind button and go back to Michigan at the
02:55beginning of last year, it didn't really look impressive
02:58in a lot of games, especially in the first half. They pulled
03:00away late, but they played a lot of close games in the first
03:03half. So if you're feeling frisky, I would like to take
03:05the Wolverines here who no doubt have a little bit of a chip on
03:09their shoulder given the fact that the defending national
03:12champions are being disrespected as a seven and a
03:14half point home underdog to the Texas Longhorns. I look at
03:19the game script and I go well look if Texas isn't in this
03:22game early. Guess what? I mean sorry if Michigan isn't in this
03:25game early. I don't think they have the offense to play catch
03:27up against Texas right. So this is the first half under this is
03:32Michigan plus the points in the first half. If you want to play
03:34it, you get the feeling that Texas could pull away late. You
03:38know if it's a Texas up by a field goal at half, you know
03:41they just may overwhelm Michigan in the latter half of
03:44these games. But Michigan again is proven in the second half
03:47guys that they can be a lot stronger defensively than they
03:49are in the first. So if this thing goes over, I don't see
03:53how Texas doesn't cover right. Michigan has to keep this thing
03:57a little scary. Let me ask you a question of Mark too because
04:00being a handicapper, this is always a tricky part in the
04:03season play one game. Everybody has their referendum already in
04:06the season. This team stinks. This team's great. Oh my
04:08goodness and then you move on to week number two. So we look
04:11at that Texas Michigan game opening up at three and a half
04:13now since it's seven and a half. Why Michigan didn't look
04:16all that great last week against Fresno State Texas
04:18looked like they could be world beat us granted two
04:20different teams, two different places. We understand that, but
04:23now we take a look at NC State and Tennessee. You saw last
04:26week, Tennessee easy victory five and a half opening line
04:29goes to seven and a half even eight and a half at some other
04:31outlets right now and NC State didn't look all that great last
04:35week. How do we handle the bias just from our own eyes Mark
04:38from weeks one to weeks two and how do you handicap that? Well,
04:42you always look for the overreaction spots, right? I
04:44mean, that's one of them right there on Tennessee. Given what
04:46they did against Chattanooga last week and NC State, you
04:50know, at one point was trailing to Western Carolina, but like
04:54let's kind of peel back layers of that NC State game, right?
04:58You could look probably a little bit of jitters at
05:00Gracie McCall. They didn't start out well offensive. They
05:02got down in a 14 nothing hole and then what happened? The NC
05:05State defense looks like it always looks like and they only
05:08gave up seven points over the final three quarters and their
05:11offense finally started to get clicking. Maybe the jitters for
05:14Grayson McCall now playing in the big boy league of the ACC
05:17all of a sudden have gone away and that's an important thing
05:19for him to be able to be more relaxed offensively in this
05:23game. You guys know I've told you before. I think the world
05:25of Dave Dorian squad this year. I think they're a ten win team
05:28and you know could could possibly sniff the college
05:31football playoff if they get a couple of bounces to go their
05:34way from other teams and other conferences. All that said,
05:37this is about defense here for NC State. If the Wolfpack can
05:40contain Tennessee and not get, you know, boat race like we saw
05:44Chattanooga, which I don't think actually happens here,
05:46then NC State's going to have a great chance to be in this
05:49game. I wouldn't lay the seven and a half. It's NC State or
05:51pass for me. Remember, this is technically a neutral site game
05:54in Charlotte. The game is not in Raleigh, so you could expect
05:59a little bit more of a balanced crowd than what we would see if
06:02the game was on NC State's campus. Still, I think you'll
06:05see a lot of red in those stands and it will be a very
06:07heavy Wolfpack favorite crowd there, but I like NC State. The
06:12pack really good as an underdog under Dave Doran since 2020.
06:16We're on really frankly the entire time he has been in
06:18Raleigh since 2013, but eight and seven against the spread in
06:21the last three college football seasons, seven outright
06:24victories of those eight covers Tennessee, a great cover team
06:29as a favorite under Josh Hypel, who became the head man in
06:32Knoxville in 2021, twenty and nine against the spread six
06:36best cover percentage as a favorite nationally in the last
06:40three years or the fourth ever meeting between Tennessee and
06:43NC State. The first meeting since 1980 between Oklahoma
06:48State and Arkansas in Stillwater on Saturday afternoon,
06:52the Pokes a seven and a half point favorite against the Hogs
06:5562 and a half is the totals. You know, how do you break down
06:59the matchup between Oklahoma State and Arkansas? I mean, you
07:05know, Oklahoma State seems to be a team that I think it's
07:08maybe slightly overvalued. I know a lot of people, a lot of
07:11sharp people. I talk to very high in Oklahoma State going
07:13over their win total being a team that's in contention this
07:16year, you know, and you get a state of transition with
07:19Arkansas. What's going on? No more KJ Jefferson. Steve
07:22Sanders gone like the offense looks a little bit different
07:26Oklahoma State. I really it boils down to do you trust this
07:30offense? I mean it's hard for me to lay more than a touchdown
07:34with a run first offense and a limited quarterback and Garrett
07:36Bowman that makes me feel like they're not going to be able to
07:39separate from teams of like talent. Arkansas has got a lot
07:43to prove here. This is a spot here where they can go and sort
07:46of upset or at least, you know, give a chance to be in this
07:49game against Oklahoma State. So I don't again another spot
07:54where I don't bet Oklahoma State. It's Arkansas pass, but
07:56I'm afraid that Arkansas might be coming a little bit too
07:58trendy of a dog here for a lot of people in this spot that
08:02it's starting to feel like when everybody jumps on that one dog
08:05at college football, you all run away and the sharp square dog
08:07is another sharp square dog so to speak. So I like Arkansas. I
08:13just don't know if they can win this thing in the trenches. The
08:16Razorback shut out Arkansas Pine Bluff and FCS photo start
08:21last week on that Thursday night. Seven need a zip.
08:25Taylor Green, the Boise State transfer quarterback to
08:27throwing touchdowns to rushing scores. Jaquindon Jackson, the
08:31Utah transfer in the backfield to scores as well. Oklahoma
08:35State far more impressive against a superior FCS foe,
08:40South Dakota State, the two-time reigning national
08:42champs at the FCS level who entered on a 29 game win
08:46streak. The Pokes won 44 to 20 easily covering as a 12 and a
08:51half point favorite. A couple more thoughts from Mark Zito,
08:54including our first SEC conference game of this season
08:59and a couple of other college football discussions before we
09:03transition into some NFL season leans from the mouth in the
09:08south. That's next live right here on this Thursday on the
09:10Early Line on Sportsbook. An SEC opener on Saturday as well.
09:15We'll get some NFL thoughts from the mouth in the south but
09:18not before we hit every game in college football that Mark
09:21Zito would like to discuss. Kentucky in Lexington, double
09:25digit favorite against South Carolina over under 42 and a
09:29half. This is the first conference game in the real
09:32line Southeastern Conference in 2024. Zito, how does it play
09:38out in Lexington? I mean, I I feel like Kentucky and Mark
09:44Stoops and what they've done have put together a pretty good
09:47brand of football where they run the ball. They play really
09:50good defense and they control the clock and they sort of
09:53grind you down here over the course of four quarters. But
09:59again for an offense like that to lay ten points to me feels a
10:03little bit rich. What do we know about USC's offense with
10:09Lenora Sellers, a quarterback and what they're capable of? I
10:13don't really know that we got an answer to that against ODU
10:16because if it was an answer, it wasn't certainly a redeeming
10:21one is the only one 23 to 19. But the aforementioned Raheem
10:25Sanders now in the backfield for the Gamecocks and that's the
10:29guy that you want to trust. I mean, I gotta look to the total
10:32here and just kind of take the first half under and the idea
10:35that these two teams will play slow. They'll run the ball.
10:38They'll be willing to punt it away and look at this and go.
10:41You know what the offenses will figure it out in the second
10:44half, but with a total this low again of 42, it tells you that
10:47you're not going to see a whole lot of throwing and what you're
10:50going to see is a whole lot of running. It's going to be very
10:52slow at the outset because if they ain't going under early,
10:54they probably ain't going under late. How about that and also I
10:59know Mark a little bit California Auburn action here
11:02Highline nine and a half to 13 and a half. Do you have any any
11:05quick synopsis on that game for you Mark this weekend on the
11:08plane? Yeah, I keep trying to get people to talk me off of
11:11Auburn here like Cal hasn't won an SCC a road game against an
11:15SCC team since 2015 right. They just don't have a great
11:18offense. They're very run heavy. You know the hard part
11:22is to trust Peyton Thorne at quarterback and I genuinely
11:25don't but I do trust you freeze in his second year calling
11:28plays and his ability to want to kind of score a ton and play a
11:32little bit faster than what they're used to. So you know
11:35Cal beginning the first of their many long trips to the
11:37East Coast, which as we get to later in the year guys, we'll
11:40try to fade Cal in these spots as they keep having to come
11:43back East, but I really feel like Auburn minus 13 is the
11:47right side. I just you know really got to get something to
11:50push me over the edge. The Tigers won last week against
11:53Alabama A&M 73 to three easily covering as a 48 and a half
11:58point favorite Peyton Thorne through for more than 300 yards
12:01and four tugs in the opening half last year against Cal though
12:05out in Berkeley. The Tigers did win the game and Thorne through
12:08the winning touchdown with six and a half minutes remaining,
12:10but less than 100 passing yards Jaden Ott one of the best backs
12:14in the country. He plays for Cal banged up last week in the
12:18Bears opener against UC Davis.