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00:00Not only does week three of the National Football League season start tonight week four of the college football campaign
00:07Does as well and it's a great Saturday slate
00:10Three ranked versus ranked games for ranked versus ranked games for the entirety of the weekend
00:16Including a big ball game tomorrow in Lincoln, Nebraska
00:20So to get you set for everything the mouth in the south will go through some SEC picks in just a second
00:26But Mark Zitto is here on this Thursday on the early line on sports grids, you know, great to have you here once again
00:33Gentlemen, I mean, this is just this is better than Christmas morning every Thursday when I get to do
00:38So and I enjoy watching Ben make apoplectic faces at the things they say in DRS going. Ah, I see. Yeah
00:46So yeah, it's quite
00:48harmonious mood we have
00:50Pretty pretty good summary of how these segments go and you're here for a full half hour my favorite time
00:57Anyways, you know, let's get set for one of the marquee matchups on the slate top 20 tilt in Ann Arbor
01:03USC's Big Ten debut in the Big Ten opener for the Mays and blue at home in the big house and yet here
01:11We are with the rope Wolverines for a second time this season as the reigning national title winners a home
01:17Underdog near a touchdown. They got blown out week two by Texas
01:21They have not covered in non-conference play so for this season and the Trojans now a five and a half point favorite
01:29Against Michigan when the line opened up during the summer
01:32Michigan was nearly a double-digit home favorite lay in nine and a half
01:35Maybe the reigning national champs not as good as we anticipated in their title defense
01:40And maybe Southern Cal is better than we thought to the first three weeks two games for USC to start off this season
01:46So, you know, how do you make sense of the line now with USC lay in five and a half on the road in Ann Arbor?
01:52The number feels right. I mean look it's hard to bet against Michigan at home particularly because of their defense
01:58And it's fair to say at this point in time that USC hasn't faced a defense at this caliber
02:02I mean LSU who they scored 27 off of it's an SEC defense
02:07So it's still good
02:08But it's not one of those things where you look at them and go that's as elite defense as Michigan is I guys I like
02:14The under here particularly in the first half as well. Like if we do some transitive property here, Texas only managed 31
02:21against
02:22The Wolverines I don't think USC's offense even with Mitch Moss playing as well as he has is at the same level as a Longhorn
02:29So you have to believe that Michigan can keep them under 30 here
02:33And do you really trust Michigan's offense to put up more than 10 to 14 in this game? I don't know that I do
02:40I think the total is is the right number
02:43I just I would look at a first half under if this thing doesn't stay under early
02:46It's not staying under late and really what it boils down to is how much can Michigan score if Michigan gets a 20 this thing?
02:51Will go over. I just don't think they'll do it there. I think this is more of a
02:5523, you know 14 kind of final and that's what that's what happens
02:58Yeah
02:59We'll see how many times Michigan runs the football in that game going to more a run centric quarterback as opposed to a pocket passer
03:05Should be a good one there in Michigan
03:06But also how about the big 12 here mark getting underway Utah and Oklahoma say two unbeaten teams each three and oh
03:12We look at the lines here at the fan blue sports book here in New Jersey
03:15Open up it as a minus one and a half point favorite for Oklahoma State that now sits at two and a half in a
03:19Total of fifty two and a half. What are the expectations for you from Utah and Oklahoma State this week? I mean
03:26Look, I get all the love for Oklahoma State, but you got to realize in this three and oh start
03:31They've actually been out gained by minus 16 yards per game. Like that's not a
03:37Trend that I want to back guys
03:38That's not that's not a team that I want to get behind that can't out gain their opponents because the more you do that
03:45Likely you are to lose games. You're going up against a very good Utah team. That's well coached
03:49That's always had a stout defense
03:53I I just don't know you get cam rising, you know who is coming back to this contest here
03:59Maybe a little extra motivation for the Utah offense. I
04:03It's hard back not to back Oklahoma State at home
04:07But I can't get past
04:09Kind of that yardage thing for me to believe that Oklahoma State is as good for all intents purposes
04:14I should have lost the game to Arkansas
04:15I think we knew this whole map
04:17Widely different if they end up losing that game Arkansas dominated them for a better part of that contest and it's just I'll probably pass on
04:25It but I would lean Utah as the rest of betters have taken this number from three to two and a half
04:30Well, it's been a very interesting market move on this game
04:34Oklahoma State opened as a two-and-a-half point favorite on the fan dual sports book just yesterday and earlier this week
04:41Utah was a slight favorite laying nearly two and a half some may be thinking that cam rising would be back
04:47We know what the injury status
04:50Fiasco and disco dance can be with the Utes as we saw all last year with cam rising who did not play a single game
04:57In 2023 now the line works back to the pokes nearly a field goal favorite at home
05:03Could that be an indication from those that know in those risk rooms that rising is not going to suit up and play for
05:10Utah on Saturday and their big 12 debut in Stillwater. It's very difficult to get a true sense
05:17We'll say this we have two of the longest tenured head coaches in college football each at
05:2220 years Kyle Whittingham for Utah Mike Gundy for Oklahoma State of four teams
05:28You know that have been FPS programmed for the last two decades in full
05:32Utah is one of the four to have a cover percentage as an underdog at 60% or better the other three Ohio State
05:40Clemson and
05:41Boise State and Utah has been an underdog much more frequently than that of the Buckeyes or the Tigers now
05:48Let's go to eight another game our fourth of the ranked versus ranked games
05:53This will include Tennessee and Oklahoma on the other side of the break the kids get the day off
05:58Tomorrow in Lincoln, Nebraska school has shut down the campus getting ready for Friday night lights at a top 25 tilt
06:05For Nebraska as they host, Illinois
06:08the first time the Cornhuskers have hosted in a ranked versus ranked game against an AP opponent since
06:162013 and it's a spread that's also been changing earlier in the week
06:20Nine and a half in favor of the Huskers against 24th ranked, Illinois now closer to a touchdown
06:26seven and a half in favor of
06:29Nebraska 43 and a hump the total for two teams that have been really good defensively so far this season's, you know
06:35What's the handicap? What's the breakdown for Friday night lights tomorrow in Lincoln?
06:40If you think Nebraska is gonna trip up and you think Illinois is going to be a viable play here
06:46senses are you know, I don't want to cut a game in half like this because you know, there's a
06:53Obviously, you know, Nebraska could be up by three and a late touchdown gets them a cover
06:58Something along those lines, but I get the sense that if Illinois is gonna hang in this game
07:03They're gonna have a lead at the end of the first half
07:05They're gonna end up being able to control the pace in the outset and Dylan Rayola and this Nebraska offense
07:11It all of a sudden looks like it's as good as any in the country at this point in time
07:14Because we all we know can sling it we've seen it. There's enough evidence of it
07:18I mean the kid can play and he certainly has given people reason to believe that Nebraska's offense is every bit as legit
07:24As as
07:25They have sure point. I mean, here's the real rub guys
07:29I mean with when it comes to Illinois's defense and you're looking at you know, how good they've been
07:35Do you believe that the quarterbacks on both sides matter, right? It's still a real versus Luke Altmaier and
07:42Where is the edge? I think the edge was with Rayola the edge is obviously with Nebraska at home
07:47but this fit this number to me feels like it's hard to bet and cover as
07:52Really Nebraska is tested for the first time
07:55I don't count Colorado's a test because their defense was so bad
07:58Oh, by the way that kid that could have been much worse than 28 to 10
08:02remember
08:02they score all 28 points in the first half and didn't score a single one in the second half because Colorado couldn't do anything against
08:08Nebraska's defense so I trust the Nebraska offense here
08:11I don't feel comfortable laying seven and a half
08:14But I think it's the Illini in the first half Nebraska, you know kind of may pull away late here
08:20I just I think this thing also stays on I
08:24Feel like this is a matchup, especially early where both these teams will play it slow
08:29They'll check each other neither one wants to make the first mistake. So I think the pace is a little bit slower in the first half
08:35Unders in all three games for both of these two teams this year two great scoring defenses
08:42Illinois playing like the best scoring defense from the last time they were ranked in
08:472022 Nebraska ranked for the first time since 2019 the highest they have been ranked since
08:532016 the first three and Oh start for the Cornhuskers since that point
08:58We have a ranked versus ranked matchup in Lincoln for the first time featuring two teams ranked inside the hippie top 25 since
09:062013 they are starting to say the Huskers are back
09:11Nebraska one of four FPS programs along with Tennessee
09:14Texas and Ole Miss to be a favorite in all three games this year and cover in all three
09:19Mark Zinno becomes the mouth of the South next live right here on this Thursday on the early line setting the stage for week
09:26Number four of this 2024 college football season Mark Zinno is here
09:30But we're about to dive into SEC country, which means he becomes the mouth in the South and it's now time for his SEC picks
09:42You
09:46For ranked versus ranked matchups in week for one on Friday
09:51of course in Lincoln, Nebraska between the Cornhuskers and the Illini of
09:56Illinois and a top 15 tilt in
09:59Norman, Oklahoma for the first ever game for OU as an SEC program and who do they get to host?
10:06The most dominant team in college football this season that would be Tennessee the Volunteers
10:11you know a seven and a half point road favorite as the sixth ranked team in the country against number 15, Oklahoma in
10:19Norman a seven and a half point favor greater than a touchdown. In fact marks it up
10:24This is the first time for a ranked, Oklahoma team as a home underdog in Norman of four points or greater
10:33since
10:341978 is the spread too large in favor of the Volunteers or does it feel fitting for this matchup on Saturday night?
10:42Well, what I will say what didn't feel fitting was the title on top of that board Midwest
10:49Well SEC showdown would have been fine, that's all you needed to do
10:54Great alliteration mark great alliteration. That would have been really great could be a copywriter
10:59But I also could be an Oklahoma backer this weekend board because the 28th ranked Sooners defense is what I'm really relying on here
11:06Look, you know, Tennessee's gaudy offensive numbers are a product of two things one. They didn't play anybody to you know
11:11They've had the fortunate pleasure of not having to play a true road game and this is an environment
11:16That's going to be completely different when you get these teams guys
11:18Who will you have played three weeks of football and they're playing their first true road game
11:23The cover rate is really low in the first true road game
11:26That's seven and a half was a key number here that we're gonna look at again
11:30I think if Tennessee is going to win this game and going to cover this game
11:35They have to make Oklahoma play from a negative game script, right?
11:38They have to get out very quickly and they have to figure out a way to make Jackson Arnold
11:44the key player for Oklahoma at this point in time like he has to be able to carry the team and I don't know that
11:50We've really seen that in two matchups against Houston and Tulane temple doesn't count
11:53They might be one of the worst five teams in the country, but you're talking about a guy really, you know
11:57That's all hasn't thrown for 200 yards passing yet. That's the way Tennessee covers this game
12:02They get out to an early lead and they force Oklahoma to offensively play catch-up
12:06But doing that against this 28th ranked defense is not going to be easy
12:10So if Oklahoma sets the tone early is able to force some three and outs or some punts and keep them off the scoreboard
12:17Then guess what? They're gonna have a great chance to say in this game
12:20I think the environment's gonna be a little bit overwhelming for Tennessee and their young quarterback
12:26Despite how much and I'm not even gonna try to butcher his last name. I say his name. I know I know it's
12:34I am a Leah Leah. I just you know, Nikolai. That's that's where I go
12:41You know, so it'll take me about a year
12:44Yeah, well, yeah, I mean he is 27 has been playing college football for nine years. So I should know it by now
12:50Yeah, so much to tell DJ you to hang it up. It's not going well. Anyway, we move on all that said I like, Oklahoma
12:56this weekend
12:57All right. We have a missed opportunity here because the 12 o'clock game is gonna start in Stark Vegas. This should be 330
13:03We should be bringing back Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson together in the blue
13:09Yeah, exactly if they take a loss
13:12Billy Napier who knows if he's coming back to town or even making it to the tourniquet
13:16Mississippi State fresh off of getting destroyed not by USC not by Alabama
13:21Not by Auburn by a Mac team in Toledo in their own building six and a half point favorite for Florida
13:2758 total here what gives Florida or Mississippi State my goodness. What a titanic battle here
13:34Yeah, and it's a good thing you use the word Titanic because one of these ships is absolutely
13:40This game is over. I mean like forgive the graphic
13:44But this just feels like you know
13:45Both of these teams are sitting there with a gun to the back of their head and whichever one loses the Bulls gonna get fired
13:49It's gonna be over, right?
13:59It's just like none of this ends up well someone's gonna get lucky into this thing here. Here's the rub though
14:05I mean Mississippi State the fact that
14:08They are an underdog at home here that Florida's laying six points despite
14:14The variety and Legion and litany of problems that they have across the board
14:20Mississippi State is Owen five against the number at home off a home game and
14:25They are Owen on against the spread as dogs when coming off a double-digit loss
14:30I mean, oh, by the way, Mississippi State has on deck, Georgia, Texas A&M and Texas waiting
14:37No
14:38Don't win now
14:39This could be a winless season
14:42Right like in the essence like a winless SEC season if they don't get this game. They are in a world of trouble
14:48I think you know
14:50The doll is hitting for Billy Napier that at some point in time the axe is gonna fall and he's gonna be gone
14:55But he can at least buy himself a stay of execution here by winning a game against a bad
15:01Mississippi State team that in reality maybe 30 teams in the country and that's a tough to say for an SEC team
15:08So listen, it's Jeff Levy's first year, right first time as a head coach at Mississippi State
15:12We get that we'll give a maybe a pass at least through the first month Billy Napier does not get
15:18Yeah, okay, that's fine
15:20But Billy Napier does not get that if Florida loses this game even on the road in Starkville as nearly a touchdown favorite
15:27They are going to Lane Kiffin his tush. He's not getting back on the tarmac DRS
15:31He's not even sniffing the charter plane back to Gainesville. He is getting canned right away
15:37It as a favorite under Billy Napier since the start of 2022. The Gators are just four and nine
15:46Against the spread not great Florida allowed more than 300 yards last week on the ground
15:53Mississippi State let Tucker Gleason and Toledo throw for nearly three bills and three tods last week, Toledo
15:59Went into Stark Vegas put up 41 and one out right as a hefty underdog against the Bulldogs
16:05We love the Rockets though in the back on the way up quickly
16:08Here's it. Oh as we look at the two top teams in the SEC
16:11They have changed places in the AP poll, Texas now one, Georgia now to look how close they are from the odds perspective
16:19Who do you still give the edge? I mean you can't
16:23Texas still has to prove it
16:24Georgia is still a team that's gonna get better as the year goes along interesting bounce back spot for them next week after the
16:30Kentucky game
16:31Georgia off this week, Texas has Louisiana Monroe and off week then after or Mississippi State after that
16:38Then an off week before the Red River rivalry Thursday night football talk