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00:00All right, welcome back on this Friday, the early line here on the Sports Grid Network.
00:05Joe Neri alongside Mark Zinno as we are that much closer to crowding a national champion
00:11in Atlanta.
00:12Notre Dame is already packing their bags.
00:14They're ready to go after that win last night against Penn State in the Orange Bowl.
00:20And if we take a look here at some of these updated national championship odds from FanDuel,
00:26we've got, well, Ohio State minus 150, still the favorite to win it all.
00:32They've got their game against Texas, which we'll talk about coming up.
00:36Notre Dame slotted right behind them at plus 260, which is interesting because they're
00:41already in the game.
00:42And then Texas has a four to one team that might win it all if they're able to get past
00:49Ohio State.
00:50I would think now is your last chance if you think Ohio State is the way to go.
00:56And by the way, to look at Ohio State is nine and a half.
01:00And that's a problem, Zinn.
01:02That's almost a, that's a two score difference between Notre Dame and Ohio State.
01:07I'm wondering what that will look like on the money line.
01:11What do you think of the future odds here?
01:13Should you bet Ohio State now?
01:16Um, no, they have to get past Texas first.
01:22Is there a world where Texas wins this game?
01:24Yeah, I think that there is a way they could win it.
01:27Do I think it's probable?
01:28No.
01:29Do I think it's possible?
01:30Yes.
01:31So I think it could go down that way.
01:35And look, you know, if you're on Texas tight, you're on the under, right?
01:39Because that means they're stopping Ohio State from scoring.
01:42I think the over is certainly correlated to Ohio State and Texas not being able to
01:47slow them down.
01:48Remember, these are two of the best defenses in the country.
01:49I just think it's interesting.
01:50Like, if you wanted to take Notre Dame right now at plus 260, you know, you're not getting
01:54that if Texas ends up getting past them.
01:57And even at plus 340 against Ohio State with the look ahead line on the Fandul Sportsbook,
02:02still, you know, it's like, I would give up the $1.20 right now then and hope that Texas
02:10gets by, then worry about, you know, a situation where, you know, I'm losing $1.20 against
02:17Ohio State when it's 340, you know, straight up.
02:20So I think there's a little value on Notre Dame at this point in time.
02:24Again, what are you asking me for?
02:26Why would I put my money on Notre Dame now after three straight weeks, three straight
02:29games of losing against them?
02:30So let's just ride this train right off the cliff, you know, but still, I think that when
02:36you look at that look ahead line, the amount of, it's not even disrespect, but the delta
02:43between these two teams, it's pretty dynamic because, again, because Texas and Notre Dame
02:48were three and four in the rankings.
02:51And now you're talking about a, what, eight-point difference between the two of them in a spread
02:55against Notre Dame, right?
02:56I mean, they were, what, a one-point or a two-point dog, you know, I'm sorry, five points,
03:03five, six points.
03:04So, you know, again, it's pretty interesting to see what oddsmakers think of Notre Dame
03:09along the way here.
03:11And again, slight favorite over Georgia, seven-and-a-half-point favorite over Indiana, for them to be flipped
03:17to a dog is kind of interesting at this point in time, given who they're going to play in
03:21the final.
03:22Well, you bring up a good point, though, Ohio State and Texas have to decide tonight exactly
03:29who is advancing to take on Notre Dame.
03:32As we take a look at the odds here currently, Ohio State, five-and-a-half, 52-and-a-half
03:37is that total.
03:38And that has come down.
03:39It opened up 54-and-a-half, and we've seen some undermoney come in throughout the week,
03:45now down to 52-and-a-half here, Zinn.
03:48And listen, Ohio State, rightfully the favorite.
03:52A lot of people think there is a lot of value in backing Texas here, that this, too, is
03:57likely going to be a one-score field goal type of game.
04:02But you like the under in this as well, especially if you like Texas.
04:07Well, I like the first half under, at 27-and-a-half, and it's purely a numbers play when you look
04:13at getting 27-and-a-half here.
04:15I mean, look, if you're going to get 10 or 11 possessions in the first half, and as long
04:20as you don't score three touchdowns, guess what, you're going to be good, right?
04:25If you end up kicking three field goals, and you score two touchdowns, right there, that's
04:3023.
04:31And now, I'm sorry, yeah, 23.
04:34Now you're sitting here going, you need a fourth score, I'm sorry, a sixth score in
04:39the final three drives that are left.
04:43It's just a numbers play in and of itself.
04:44Like, I have to trust the fact that these are the best two defenses in the country,
04:48and have been all season long by a wide margin, and that both of these coaches, who have sort
04:55of pucker factors to themselves, will end up playing a little conservative at the outset
05:02to not make a mistake for the other team, because they know the defenses are that good.
05:06So they may end up punting more.
05:08And again, if we get one or two stops early, Joe, you know, all I got to really avoid here
05:13is the quick touchdown strike, the 80-yard touchdown pass, the 70-yard touchdown run.
05:19If you avoid those, and even the touchdown drives are long, clock-consuming six, seven-minute
05:23drives, you're going to be okay here, just because they're going to run out of possessions
05:27to be able to score enough.
05:28That's really the way I kind of sliced and diced it here with the first half at 27-and-a-half.
05:33Again, it could go horribly wrong.
05:36If Ohio State does touchdown, touchdown, touchdown like they have for the past two games on their
05:40first three drives, guess what?
05:41We're dead in the water, and so is the under for the entire game.
05:45So I just look at it and go, I think there's also a component where Will Howard starts
05:50to turn into a pumpkin a little bit.
05:52Will Howard that showed up the last two weeks has been very, very good, but we've seen him
05:55have flat spots.
05:56He had a flat spot against Nebraska, he had a flat spot against Michigan.
05:59Is Texas's defense good enough like those other two defenses to be able to keep him
06:03in check?
06:04I think so.
06:05Man, Quinn Ure scares me.
06:09He really does.
06:11And you know what else scared me?
06:12And I thought this Texas team was really good defensively, but then I watched Cade Klubnik
06:19light him up for 340 yards.
06:21And I saw Arizona State and Sam Leavitt manage 222 yards in the air and almost 300 yards
06:29on the ground.
06:30And I'm going, listen, this is more football than any of these kids have played in their
06:34college career.
06:35I mean, this season is now long and it looks like, you know, maybe they're starting to
06:40take a step back.
06:41And if that's the case, pick your poison.
06:44Who are you stopping on this unless, to your point, Will Howard stops himself?
06:49Man, you got to pick your poison if you're Texas, right?
06:52I've heard everybody say that over the last week plus about Texas and how much their defense
06:59gave up to Cade Klubnik and Arizona State.
07:02What have I ever said to you?
07:03I never trust these Sarkeesian for a full four quarters, ever.
07:07His first half is always his best half.
07:09What did Texas do to Clemson in the first half?
07:12Held him to 10 points and under 100 total yards.
07:15What did they do to Arizona State?
07:17Held him to three points and under a hundred yards.
07:20So like, I get it.
07:22The total game numbers were what they were, but that's because Sarkeesian is a terrible
07:26adjustment coach.
07:27And he just sort of keeps running this same thing back for four quarters.
07:31He knows he's got a lead.
07:33He's going, guess what?
07:34Let's continue to keep them guessing.
07:36Let's continue to keep our foot on the gas pedal here.
07:38We'll just keep doing what worked for the first 30 minutes and we'll hope to win a football
07:41game.
07:42That's the only reason I'm playing the first half and the first half under here.
07:45I think it's the best Sarkeesian you're going to get.
07:46I think it's the best version of the defense you're going to get.
07:49And so I look at it and go, yeah, I think there's a chance here that this thing stays
07:54under in the first 30 minutes.
07:56Could it end up going over late?
07:58Possibly.
07:59But let's not underscore what Cade Klubnick and Scadavow and everybody else really did
08:03in the first half of those games, which was very, very minuscule.
08:06Yeah.
08:07Yeah.
08:08I, listen, I mean, he was forced to throw because they were trailing Clemson.
08:12They had to play catch up and Arizona State, same situation there.
08:17So it's going to be interesting to see what, what we get from Chip Kelly and that game
08:24plan coming out then, because he has decided all of a sudden in the playoffs that we're
08:29not going to take it slow and try to run the ball, establish, no, no, we're coming out
08:34and firing and we're going to, we're going to use our receivers, the size advantage that
08:39they have over the secondaries, Will Howard's experience.
08:43It's worked so far.
08:44I'm going to be very interested how they go and attack this Texas secondary here in this
08:49game, which leads to a whole lot of opportunities for anytime touchdowns with some of these
08:55Ohio State and Texas players.
08:58We'll look at some of these numbers, including is Will, are they going to win this on Will
09:02Howard's arm?
09:03Are they going to win it on, on, you know, Quinn Yura's arm?
09:07We'll take a look at what those prop numbers are, and we'll see if there's any value in
09:11a couple of bets to make.
09:12And we'll do that as we get ready for the cotton bowl here on the early line on the
09:17sports grid network.
09:18All right.
09:19Welcome back in here.
09:20The early line.
09:21Joe Ranieri alongside Mark Zinno as we're getting ready for the cotton ball here tonight,
09:25we know Notre Dame back in South Bend awaiting to see who it is that they'll be playing for
09:31a national championship.
09:33And it looks to be a good one here, although you wouldn't know it by the way this game
09:38is priced as the market believes that Ohio State can't lose this game as they are a five
09:44and a half, six point favorite.
09:47But the total coming down here a little bit, and to me, Zinn, this was all about A, how
09:52many points wins this game?
09:54What is the winning team's score?
09:57Is it 27?
09:58Is it 24?
09:59Is it 30?
10:00And if it is a big number, well, then some of these props that we got here with Will
10:06Howard, who has been throwing the ball all over the place.
10:10I'm seeing him at what, 244 and a half passing yards.
10:15Are they going to run it?
10:16If it's a lower scoring game, should we be looking maybe more at the rushing props with
10:20Judkins and Henderson here?
10:23It's interesting, depending on how you think the script rolls here.
10:27If Texas's defense falls apart in the second half, like they've done the last couple of
10:32games, should we be looking at all of these guys going up and over, especially Will Howard?
10:39The only ones I would really look at, I think that, you know, if you're in favor of Texas
10:42and you think Texas has a shot to win this game, and I would say that any of the passing
10:48or receiving props, if they go over, Texas may be dead in the water, right?
10:54Could Quinton Judkins get 60 yards over the course of four quarters in a tight game, especially
10:59one that's defensive and close?
11:01Yes.
11:02Could Travion Henderson do the same?
11:03Yes.
11:04But if Smith and Agupa are over there receiving yards props, Texas is getting beat in the
11:09secondary, they're dead.
11:11They're dead.
11:12They just cannot play catch up against this Ohio State defense.
11:16They literally can't.
11:18Again, Michigan beat Ohio State in a low-scoring slugfest.
11:24Will Howard wasn't able to throw the ball.
11:26He didn't have time.
11:27He wasn't comfortable in the pocket.
11:29All those things are true.
11:30If Texas wants to beat Ohio State, they have got to do it up front and make Will Howard
11:36uncomfortable.
11:37But if he throws for more than 250 yards and both of those receivers are anywhere over
11:41there receiving yardage prop, I think Texas is dead.
11:46I don't see a game script where Texas wins an over game in a shootout.
11:51I understand we think Quinn Urers in this offense can do that.
11:56We've seen them put up four points at will, but a lot of that has been on the ground this
12:00year.
12:01A lot of that has been their defense dominating, forcing three and outs, getting the ball back
12:06quickly and just overpowering people.
12:07I get it.
12:08That's not going to happen here against Ohio State.
12:11You're going to be able to move the ball one first down, you're going to end up punting.
12:14That's what you need Ohio State to do here.
12:16I don't think the over favors Texas at all.
12:19If we get even closer to the thing, I don't think Texas can win the game.
12:22If Ohio State touches 30, Texas may be dead.
12:26So, it definitely correlates with you then.
12:30So, Texas in and under, Ohio State in, and if they're going to cover Ohio State, you
12:36think it's going to be because it's a shootout and they're going to get, and the defense,
12:40let's not forget the defenses in a game like this.
12:43You said it, two top defenses.
12:45We saw turnovers play a big role last night.
12:49Could it play a big role in this game tonight, setting up some easy, easy scores?
12:53We've seen it.
12:54Joe, this is the essence of my whole handicap of the first half under.
13:00Nobody wants to make the first mistake.
13:02Nobody wants to give the other team a short field because while these defenses are great,
13:07if I only got to go 30 yards, guess what?
13:09I'm likely giving up points at least three.
13:12So, that's not what you want to happen here and continue to put good defenses on short
13:17fields and ask them to make, stop, stop, stop, and hope the team settles for a field goal.
13:23So, yeah, I think takeaways will be a big part of it, but I also think both these coaches
13:27are going to turn around and go, I don't want to be the one who makes the mistake first.
13:31I don't want to try to play catch up against this defense because it's not a formula that
13:36bodes well for me as a coach.
13:39So, the idea is to keep it within one score the whole way, play it tight to the vest,
13:43and I think that favors Texas.
13:45If Ohio State scores on back-to-back opening drives and Texas is already out of sorts with
13:50a game plan, forget it.
13:51Sarkeesian, get.
13:52They may as well pack their bags at halftime and go home.
13:56So, you're much more comfortable.
13:58See, I think the scary part is Texas playing from in front, and that would worry me.
14:03If I was looking at Texas, I would much rather have Texas in a situation where they have
14:09to come from behind.
14:10Right?
14:11Is there a way that Texas goes up 17-3 early, right, and we end up the first half 17-3,
14:18and then Ohio State has to come charging back and the game goes over?
14:21Yes, but again, let me ask you, in a situation where last team with the ball wins, who do
14:27you trust more in that scenario, Texas or Ohio State?
14:30Because for me, it would be Ohio State.
14:33Right.
14:34Yep.
14:35I agree.
14:36I agree 100% here.
14:37I think the first half matters in this one.
14:41Where Texas can out-talent them in overtime.
14:43That's not the case.
14:44This is Ohio State, one of the most talented teams in the country.
14:48The horses in the barn are exactly the same.
14:50There's not going to be a mismatch down the field unless somebody makes a mistake on an
14:54assignment.
14:55So, if it's last team with the ball wins, and if it's Ohio State with the ball, I trust
14:59them a lot more to score than I do Texas.
15:02I saw in a look-ahead spot here a couple of weeks ago, before they dismantled Oregon,
15:09the look-ahead line for Ohio State and Texas was one and a half.
15:12Ohio State a one and a half point favorite.
15:15How in the world we got to six, five and a half, six, and is beyond me.
15:20And listen, I'll tell you this.
15:21I think if we, all things being equal, in the playoffs, if we get what we have seen
15:27out of this Ohio State team, the first couple of games, and we get exactly what we've seen
15:32from Texas in the first couple of playoff games, Ohio State covers those numbers and
15:36wins by a million.
15:38But if we get any deviation from either of those two teams where they take a step back,
15:44I think there's still room for Texas to play their best football.
15:48I think the only place to go from here for Ohio State is take a step back, man.
15:53I don't know that they can keep up what they just did against Oregon.
15:57I mean, that was unbelievable what we saw from them.
16:02Doesn't there have to be some regression here for this Ohio State?
16:06That's the other part I'm banking on in the first half under.
16:10It's going to take them 15 minutes to get their legs underneath them and figure out
16:14that, hey, this isn't going to be as easy as it was the last two weeks.
16:17So, yeah, I think there's some regression for Will Howard.
16:19I think there's some regression for Ohio State against this level of a defense.
16:23And I do think, I don't know that we've seen the best Texas has yet.
16:28So that'll be very interesting on the big stage here tonight.
16:31And welcome in the early line here on this Friday on the Sports Grid Network.
16:38We appreciate you stopping by as we get ready for a national championship game coming up
16:45soon enough as we await the winner of tonight's Cottonball between Ohio State and Texas.
16:53And what we already know from last night is Notre Dame awaits after a big win against
17:00Penn State, Joe Ranieri alongside Mark Zinno.
17:04And we decided that it was time to ask the public their thoughts on this game tonight.
17:10And the big question is going to be here, Mark, do we fade the public or not?
17:23So the question was pretty simple here.
17:26We wanted to know what the best bet for tonight's matchup was here, Mark.
17:31And we wanted to know, is the five and a half for Ohio State the way to go?
17:35Should you take the points with Texas or is the total the best way to go?
17:40Look at the over or under 52 and a half.
17:43And here we are, around 50% Zinn thinks that Ohio State laying the five and a half is the
17:50right way to look in this game.
17:52So I ask you, are we fading the public here tonight?
17:57I would.
17:58I mean, I'm not going to lay five and a half with Ohio State, period.
18:06It's just not what I want to do against this defense.
18:10I understand Texas doesn't look good.
18:12I understand they got pushed to overtime by Arizona State.
18:14I understand all those things.
18:16But again, I truly believe that it's Texas and the under are the right sides in this
18:20game.
18:22And the only way Texas has a chance to win the game is to limit Ohio State scoring.
18:27So I'm on the exact opposite side of the public on the over and the exact opposite side of
18:30the public on the side here.
18:33I could be wrong, but if Ohio State came out and led 21-0 in the blink of an eye, would
18:39anybody be surprised?
18:40No.
18:41Would I be dead wrong?
18:42Yes.
18:43But it would not shock me to see Ohio State continue that trend.
18:46Well, it would surprise me to say the least.
18:49Just getting scored on that easily would be quite surprising.
18:52But to say Ohio State would be in command for the first 30 minutes wouldn't surprise
18:56anybody.
18:57Yeah, it feels like there is going to be a pretty good opportunity, Zinn, in this game.
19:02I think certainly live as well, depending on who jumps out early.
19:09If we're thinking Texas early, we're probably thinking an under early in this one.
19:16And then maybe a pretty good opportunity to be able to jump back in.
19:19I mean, listen, if you can get six with Texas and then maybe have an opportunity with Texas
19:25out in front to be able to get Ohio State at plus money, I think there's – and that's
19:31the big question, Zinn, is that how far back would Ohio State have to be in order to be
19:36able to get them at any sort of plus numbers or plus money here in this game?
19:43Well, I mean, sort of the algorithm would tell you, at 10, if they went up 10-0.
19:4910?
19:50Right.
19:51Well, I was going to say, if Ohio State – I'm sorry, if Texas went up 10-0 here, you'd
19:56probably still have to lay two and a half with Ohio State, which is a number where at
20:01that point in time, like, I could get comfortable playing Ohio State, right?
20:06If they went up a full 14-0, you might get them at around even money, right?
20:12Like, you know, on the money line, you'd probably get them around minus 1-10, 1-15
20:16just to win the game outright, which would be the way to go.
20:19But I don't really think you see Ohio State plus money until it's a three-score game.
20:25That's when I think the first time you see plus – you know, an Ohio State plus points
20:30kind of scenario.
20:32I agree.
20:33I think we'd have to get at least a two-score situation here with Texas in front in order
20:39for us to be able to get any sort of good number on Ohio State right now.
20:45But we did look at those future odds a little earlier in the show in regards to the three
20:52teams that are left, and Ohio State remains to be the favorite at minus 1-50.
20:58Notre Dame who cashed their ticket last night – punched their ticket last night, rather,
21:03to the national championship game at plus 260 and, of course, Texas at plus 400, which
21:10is probably what you can get them on the money line tonight, Zane.
21:14Is that about right, or is there – well, let me ask you a question.
21:18Is the national championship coming out of this game one way or the other?
21:23What are you asking me for?
21:25Every time I bet against Notre Dame, they win, and I'm committed to doing it for a full straight game.
21:30I'm not lying.
21:31I'm going to bet – whether it's Texas or not, I'm betting them again.
21:35I am that committed.
21:36I get this right.
21:37I'm that stubborn because I do not believe Notre Dame is the best team in the country,
21:40and I know that's not necessarily when we crown a national championship that happens,
21:43but regardless, they probably should have lost twice already, in my opinion.
21:46Neither here nor there.
21:47That said, I agree.
21:48Yeah, I think the national champion comes out of this game.
21:51So again, Texas is where all the value resides, honestly.
21:56If you don't have Ohio State at a plus number at this point in time, you're better off just
21:59taking whatever you would put on the future for Ohio State and laying the points at them
22:03and letting it roll that way.
22:05Yeah, it's – a lot of people look at it, and it's priced that way.
22:10So if Ohio State – and we saw the look-ahead, by the way.
22:14If Ohio State wins this game, we've seen the look-ahead number.
22:18It's 9.5.
22:19They'd be a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame.
22:24So I'll tell you right now, at minus 150 for Ohio State to win it all, now would be the
22:31time to jump in on it if you have not done so, because I don't think you're going to
22:35be able to get minus 150 if Ohio State is playing Notre Dame as a 9.5-point favorite
22:42theirs, and it feels like you'd have to lay $3 before you'd – twice that, quite honestly,
22:49by the time the Notre Dame game comes around here next week.
22:52Yeah, I mean –
22:54Very early.
22:55Yeah, that's the point.
22:57And again, if you want Notre Dame, like you said, I would just take them as an outright
23:01future to win the whole thing at this point in time, even if they end up getting, you
23:06know, Ohio State, and that game would make them plus three, whatever, on the money line
23:11as a 9.5-point underdog.
23:14It's not worth it to me to wait one more game, because on the off chance that Texas pulls
23:17off the upset, you know, you're going to lose a dollar, and at that point in time,
23:22you're going to get even money based off of what you put down probably.
23:25So I think the best chance, if you like Notre Dame right now, is to bet them before Ohio
23:30State and Texas kicks off.
23:32And I got news for you.
23:33If I bet them at minus 150 now, I'd be okay taking the 9.5 against Notre Dame, and there
23:42you go.
23:43You kind of kick back and relax.
23:46There's your middle.
23:47You know, because you ain't getting them in minus 150, so if I'm holding a ticket for
23:51Ohio State to win it all, I'm not opposed to taking that 9.5 afterwards there.
23:58I mean, that's a pretty decent middle for a national championship game, no?
24:03Yes.
24:04However, the last time we saw Notre Dame in a national championship game, I think they
24:07got shut out.
24:08Oh, boy.
24:09Yeah, but that was Saban.
24:11That's a different...
24:12That's a totally different...
24:14I just gave it.
24:15Yes.
24:16There was a comeback.
24:17So, you know.
24:18Yeah.
24:19It was that.
24:20Yeah, but totally different ball game there.
24:22But a national championship game, a little bit of rest there, and finally, we have gotten
24:28to that point after tonight.
24:30The Cotton Bowl, by the way, don't let yourself be fooled thinking that this place is going
24:35to be overrun with Texas fans because it's the Cotton Bowl.
24:38I promise you, Ohio State will be well represented in this game tonight in Texas, against Texas.
24:48They show up and they show out in a big way, this fan base.
24:52Yes.
24:53And again, by the way, the ticket allocation goes to the college football playoff committee
24:58folks.
24:59So, they get 40 and 40 and then 20% is open to the public.
25:01Right.
25:02So, it's going to be pretty good, to say the least.
25:04Yes.
25:05And that was actually a pretty big...
25:07There were a lot of Notre Dame fans at the Orange Bowl last night, but there were a ton
25:11of Penn State fans, too, and unfortunately, what happens is the committee looks like geniuses
25:17because either way, they are going to get probably one of the most, two of the loyalist
25:22fan bases and biggest fan bases in college football are going to go toe-to-toe, whether
25:27it's Texas or Ohio State going up against Notre Dame.
25:31It's going to be a ratings success, to say the least, here with those two fan bases.