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00:00All right, welcome back in here.
00:02The early line on the Sports Grid Network,
00:04Joe Renneri alongside Mark Zinno.
00:07And in addition to the Cotton Bowl here tonight,
00:11deciding who is going to be the team to play
00:14for a national championship against
00:16the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Ohio State Texas here tonight.
00:20Let's not forget, starting tomorrow, wildcard weekend,
00:23the NFL up and off and running
00:26for a little post-season action.
00:28And it all kicks off then tomorrow at 4.30
00:32as the LA Chargers getting ready to travel to Houston
00:37to take on the Texans.
00:39And it has been all Charger love,
00:43as far as I see here,
00:45as they are looking at 42 and a half as a total.
00:49It opened up at 44.
00:51So the under money coming in here, which I agree with.
00:55I think both of these teams have been great to the under.
00:59I think both defenses, once again,
01:02could very well be the story in this game.
01:04And let's not forget the way Harbaugh likes to play, right?
01:07He likes to choke it out of you here where you can't,
01:11you don't have enough time to come back and beat them.
01:13So how do you see this going here early on?
01:17Is this finally the year Herbert breaks through?
01:21It's not like he doesn't have the talent.
01:24Well, and now he's finally got the coach, right?
01:26Brandon Staley is not on the sidelines anymore
01:29to blow a 27-3 lead.
01:30So there is that.
01:32But look, the Texans are one of two teams in this playoffs
01:37without a positive point differential on the season.
01:40And that ought to tell you all you need to know
01:42about a team that was probably overrated
01:44for a better part of this year,
01:46now is dealing with injuries.
01:47I get CJ Stroud is extremely talented
01:49and a quarterback who can beat a lot of teams in this league.
01:52But every time this year,
01:53the Texans have had to step up in class,
01:55they've come up short.
01:56And in reality, go look at this Texas team
01:58and how they got to 10 and seven
02:02and the number of close calls that they had.
02:05You ready for this?
02:06They beat the Colts twice by a combined five points.
02:09They beat the Jaguars twice by a combined seven points.
02:13I mean, they had one score games against the Titans
02:15for crying out loud.
02:17Like, this is not a team that's separated from anybody.
02:21And so when you look at this Chargers team coming in here,
02:24a team that runs the ball really well,
02:25plays a ton of defense,
02:27and knows how to get after the quarterback
02:29and is extremely well coached.
02:31I get why they're a two and a half point favorite.
02:33Look, a lot of other books have moved to three already
02:35and gotten to a key number here,
02:37where you start to see things level off a little bit
02:40from a ticket and money perspective.
02:43But the game script for Houston to win this game
02:48is somehow to score a ton of points.
02:52We keep talking about correlation.
02:53If Houston only scores 20 points in this game,
02:56I don't think they win this thing.
02:57They got to get to like 24, 27
03:00and force a Chargers offense that for the most part
03:02has been consistent, but lacks firepower,
03:06has been solid,
03:07but doesn't have a lot of quick strike ability.
03:10You have to get them playing from behind
03:12and ask them to start throwing their way back
03:15into a football game.
03:16If the Chargers are leading by three or seven, guess what?
03:19They're going to continue to grind.
03:20They're going to continue to slow the pace down,
03:22slow the tempo down, play the field position game
03:25and do what Jim Harbaugh always does.
03:27Remember the good old Michigan days?
03:28They're willing to go toe to toe with you and stand there
03:31and grind it out for 60 minutes.
03:33So, and then when it comes down to it,
03:35ask your quarterback to make enough plays
03:37and he's got a capable one.
03:3923 to three, touchdown to interception ratio.
03:44That's what Justin Herbert has done this year.
03:46In the meantime, CJ Stroud,
03:49to me the hardest thing about backing this Houston team
03:52is this offensive line is a mess.
03:55He has been under duress the entire year.
03:58He's turned it over 14 times.
04:01Now call it a sophomore slump, call it whatever you want,
04:05but the reality is I think a lot of that correlates
04:07to the fact that you can't protect it.
04:09You've got a Chargers team that has scored 108 points
04:12in the past three games.
04:14And I believe the return of J.K. Dobbins
04:16really has kicked it and re-energized this Chargers team
04:21who was lacking a little punch
04:23without Dobbins in the lineup.
04:25I don't love the matchup for Houston.
04:27I really don't.
04:28That's the problem I have here.
04:30I can't trust an offensive line
04:32and a quarterback that is running for his life
04:34and has gotta be gun shy at this point
04:37because of how many turnovers they've had.
04:39And don't forget when they had an opportunity a year ago
04:42against the Ravens in the playoffs,
04:44boy, that did not work out well here.
04:48Either way, I'm with you.
04:49I don't think Harbaugh will show anything more
04:52than he has to,
04:53which in likelihood will be just enough to win the game,
04:55get the cover and get out of dodge and advance.
04:59He has been here and he has done this before.
05:02Oh boy, is it tough to back Houston in this spot,
05:05but I do like the under,
05:07including the first half under in this one here.
05:10All right, we got many more wildcard weekend games
05:13to go with.
05:14We got a whole nother hour of the early line together.
05:17Come back and join us here on the grid.
05:19And welcome into the early line on this Friday now,
05:24January the 10th,
05:26as we have got so much going on around the sports landscape
05:31as we get that much closer to crowning a national champion.
05:35We had a great game in the Orange Bowl last night,
05:39one in which has sent Notre Dame
05:41to play for a national championship game in Atlanta
05:45for the first time since, well, forever, 2012.
05:49And tonight we've got a Cotton Bowl matchup,
05:51Ohio State taking on Texas.
05:54Two more Blue Blood programs get to go at it.
05:57We've got a ton in wildcard weekend coming up in the NFL.
06:02We'll break those games down,
06:04not to mention getting really good in college basketball too
06:08as conference play alive and well
06:11in some huge matchups coming up this weekend here.
06:15We'll dive into that.
06:16We'll talk a little NBA.
06:19I'm Joe Ranieri, he is Mark Zinno.
06:21I mean, we got a little something
06:22for everybody this weekend, Zinn.
06:25Yeah, jam-packed to say the least.
06:27And by the way, this week
06:29of the college basketball card has been phenomenal.
06:31Between Tuesday and Wednesday,
06:33we had some huge major games going on in major conferences.
06:37It's been a lot of fun.
06:37So we're getting hot right at the right time
06:39in college hoops and, you know,
06:41with this super wildcard weekend
06:42and the national championship coming up,
06:44it's gonna continue.
06:45So great time of year to be on the sports betting calendar.
06:48Oh, it really is, gotta love it here.
06:50And we just talked and finished up talking
06:53about the first game in wildcard weekend,
06:56that being Justin Herbert taking on CJ Stroud,
06:59the Chargers and the Texans.
07:02The other game tomorrow, eight o'clock Eastern time kick
07:05is gonna feature, of course,
07:06two teams that know one another pretty well.
07:09The AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers
07:14and the Baltimore Ravens.
07:16Now, a lot of people have been gasping
07:18at the idea that the Ravens are almost
07:21a double digit favorite here.
07:23The total though, is really the thing
07:25that has seen the most steam throughout the week.
07:28This thing opened up 46, 46 and a half.
07:31It is down to 43 and a half.
07:33This will be in Baltimore.
07:35It will be cold.
07:37It'll be exactly what you expect
07:38in an AFC North battle here.
07:40But the problem is, it feels like I've got one team
07:44on the rise and another team on the decline.
07:48And the Pittsburgh offense is worrisome to say the least.
07:52So nine and a half points,
07:55are they nine and a half point favored for a reason?
07:59Well, it's more of a reflection
08:01of how bad the Steelers have been as of late.
08:03Let me rephrase that.
08:05The Steelers struggles as of late.
08:06The Steelers haven't been bad at all this year.
08:08They've just struggled offensively to put up points
08:11and some recency bias on the Ravens
08:13who continue to maybe have the prohibitive MVP
08:17on their team and Lamar Jackson
08:18and put up points at will on everybody.
08:20Plus we just saw this matchup a couple of weeks ago
08:22and it's pretty one-sided, right?
08:24Like that's the recency bias of that whole thing
08:27is still probably playing into this just a little bit
08:30as it was what, three weeks ago
08:32that the Ravens beat the Steelers 34 to,
08:37what was the final game?
08:38Where was it?
08:3934 to, what was the final?
08:4134-7, I believe, right?
08:43Yeah.
08:44You took me a second to find it there, apologies.
08:46But so here's the thing.
08:49Like the Texans, the Steelers committed this game,
08:53losers are four in a row.
08:55How often has Mike Tomlin lost five in a row?
08:58Not often in his career, if ever at all.
09:01In the years I covered this Ravens team for a decade,
09:04I've never seen a spread this big between these two teams.
09:07And it certainly hasn't been this big
09:08in the last four or five seasons either.
09:10So it's pretty telling that odds makers
09:12are posting this number here.
09:14If the total is coming down,
09:16it's because people believe one of two things.
09:18Steelers can keep this close
09:19and they're gonna stay within a number
09:20or it's a flat out 30 to seven blowout
09:24and that's the end of it, right?
09:26Like that's the only other way this thing stays under
09:28because if the Steelers get to 17, it's gotta go over.
09:33You can't get this,
09:34you're asking for a really tight window
09:37for this thing to fit in and under
09:39where the Steelers get more than 14 points.
09:41It's just really hard for them to do it
09:43because the Ravens are probably gonna be pushing 27
09:46or more higher.
09:47Now that said again, I look at the game
09:50and is there a game script where the Steelers
09:52can figure out a way to win this?
09:53Absolutely they can.
09:55I mean, it's not in Pittsburgh
09:57but these are two teams
09:59that know each other really, really well.
10:01And the other big part of this Joe
10:04is that Arthur Smith, the Steelers offensive coordinator,
10:07if he wants to continue to be named
10:09in head coaching circles here for another job,
10:12he's gonna need to figure out a way for this team
10:14to score points this week.
10:15And that's ultimately what boils down
10:17against this Ravens defense.
10:20Yeah, I agreed with the total move.
10:24I thought it was too high to begin with Zen,
10:27but I agree with it even more now that we have confirmed
10:31by John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens
10:34that they will be without their top wide receiver
10:37here in Zay Flowers.
10:38He has been ruled out because of the knee injury
10:42that he sustained in that last game
10:44against the Cleveland Browns.
10:46I mean, this guy is a game changer and you know what?
10:49He is a big reason, maybe the one reason why
10:53they were able for the first time
10:55to drop that many points on a Pittsburgh Steeler defense.
10:59He absolutely torched them.
11:02We're talking about five catches over a hundred yards,
11:06eight targets in that game.
11:08Him and Mark Andrews have become the go-to guys
11:11for Lamar Jackson here.
11:13And if it wasn't for him,
11:16he absolutely smoked that young secondary of the Steelers.
11:20Without him, I don't see how they stretch the field.
11:24You're not stretching the field with Bateman.
11:27You're not stretching the field with Mark Andrews.
11:30This feels like it's gonna be a lot closer
11:32to what we've got.
11:33By the way, these teams have played nine times
11:35since 2020, December of 2020.
11:37The under is eight and one,
11:39and no winning team has scored more than 20 points
11:42in any of those games.
11:44The only time they went over is in that last game
11:47where they scored 34 of your points in.
11:50And guess what?
11:50The guy that was mostly responsible
11:53for helping them stretch the field
11:55is not playing in this game.
11:56I think that is a big loss for Baltimore.
11:59But having said that, Arthur Smith and Pittsburgh,
12:03we haven't seen them score more than 17 points.
12:06And that was against a terrible Cincinnati defense.
12:10Can they flip the switch?
12:12That's the big question, which Russell Wilson shows up in.
12:15No, they're not gonna flip the switch offensively.
12:18What they're gonna do is their defense
12:20is gonna rule the day and flip it on the Ravens
12:22and prevent them from getting to 20, right?
12:25Like there was a stretch in this series
12:27where neither team scored 20 for three.
12:30I think it was four straight seasons in the match.
12:32Every team was under 20.
12:34I think once the Steelers got to 20,
12:36and it was a 2019 final.
12:37But for four straight years,
12:39everything was under 40 total points in every game.
12:43So that's the way the Steelers win.
12:45The Steelers aren't gonna come out and score 37.
12:47That's not happening, right?
12:50But the way that they win this game
12:52is they stop the Ravens from scoring 23 or more.
12:56That's the way they win this game.
12:58So they've got to hold the Ravens to 20 points
13:01if they want to win this thing or less.
13:03And that's the only game script that works for them.
13:05But you're not going out on the Ravens
13:06and helping 35 on them.
13:08That's not happening.
13:09No, no.
13:10And again, without Zay Flowers,
13:12without somebody to be able to open everything up
13:14for everyone else,
13:16I think it's gonna be a lot more of the Derrick Henry,
13:19Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews,
13:21move the chains, time of possession.
13:24I think it's going to be a typical
13:26what we've gotten over the years
13:28between Harbaugh and Tomlin.
13:30And in fact, Lamar too,
13:32if we look at some of his numbers here,
13:36over one and a half passing touchdowns,
13:3949 and a half rushing yards,
13:41seems a little light to me there.
13:42Does it not, Tim?
13:44I mean, again, typically against the Steelers,
13:47he hasn't had big games.
13:49You know, like these aren't eye-popping numbers
13:51that you see against the Steelers' defense.
13:52So, you know, they know him very well.
13:55They know what he does.
13:56They know when to spy him.
13:56They know when he takes off.
13:57They know when he doesn't.
13:58Mike Tomlin has been playing against this quarterback
14:01for a long time now.
14:03And the fact of the matter is,
14:04is that if there's anybody who can lock him down,
14:07it's the Pittsburgh Steelers.
14:09Feels like a lot of unders, possibly,
14:13in this one here for Lamar Jackson and the props.
14:17Could be a good time for an anytime touchdown,
14:20though, with a few guys in that game.
14:22I can tell you this,
14:24in the Buffalo Bills and Denver game,
14:27the Broncos, we'll talk about that next.
14:30I think that's gonna be the opposite
14:32of the Steelers and Ravens.
14:33We'll have more on that on the early line
14:35next year on The Grid.
14:37Wild card weekend.
14:39It is almost upon us here,
14:41and we've got you covered on the early line.
14:44Joe Ranieri alongside Mark Zinno here
14:46on the Sports Grid Network,
14:48as we're gonna head to Orchard Park
14:51and the Buffalo Bills get ready to take on.
14:54I got nothing but good things to say
14:56about what Sean Payton and Bo Nix did together this year.
15:00Rookie quarterback.
15:02Nobody saw them winning even six games,
15:05much less 10 games,
15:07and finding themselves in a spot here, Zinn,
15:10in a playoff game, but that's exactly where they are.
15:14We saw Buffalo get steamed up earlier in the week.
15:18Now we're starting to see a little more Denver money
15:20come back into play.
15:2147 and a half is the total.
15:24I'm not seeing any crazy Orchard Park weather,
15:28not 40 mile an hour gusts, minus three, or snow.
15:32I'm not seeing any of that just yet for this game,
15:36but what I do see is one quarterback and one team
15:40that has been there and done this before,
15:42taking on a team that is making the playoffs
15:44for the first time in eight years with a rookie quarterback,
15:48and I think experience matters this time of year.
15:52What do you think about this number at eight and a half
15:55with the Buffalo Bills?
15:57It's what I've said all along this entire season.
16:00Not only does Josh Allen have to overcome the team
16:03that he's playing on the field,
16:04he also has to overcome his own head coach,
16:06and that's my biggest concern here.
16:07There's a major coaching advantage for Sean Payton
16:10over Sean McDermott.
16:11That's really what it boils down to.
16:13McDermott has been part of the reason
16:15why the Bills haven't gotten over the hump
16:16in the last couple of years.
16:17He's been out-coached, he's been out-prepared,
16:19and I'm not giving a pass to Josh Allen, per se,
16:22but it's a bigger part of the reasons
16:24why they have lost games, particularly home games.
16:27So do I have a little bit of concern
16:29about the Buffalo Bills here?
16:30A little bit.
16:32They're my pick to win it all,
16:33but I think when push comes to shove,
16:36I just don't know that Denver has enough offensive firepower
16:39to play in a shootout like the Buffalo Bills,
16:43and clearly there is a large gap in quarterback.
16:45You know, you go back to, again, Joe,
16:47first-time quarterbacks making their first-ever start
16:50in the postseason and how big of a difference it is
16:53between teams with starting quarterbacks
16:56and playoff experience versus teams that don't have it.
17:00You look at first-time quarterbacks
17:02making their first-time playoff start 19 and 38 straight up.
17:05When the less experienced quarterbacks play on the road,
17:09they're 11 and 21 straight up,
17:12including 12, 19, and one against the numbers.
17:15So the big part about this is,
17:17do you believe the Bills are gonna win by two scores?
17:20Probably, but is there a world where the backdoor is open
17:22for Denver to sneak in late in a 27-13 kind of game
17:28where they get into a 27-20 kind of deal?
17:30Maybe, yeah.
17:32I think that could be very possible,
17:35but Buffalo should theoretically run away with this one,
17:38and especially at home,
17:40they should be able to overwhelm Bo Nicks.
17:43It's funny, too.
17:44The stat I think I saw was that,
17:46and I do think this will get back up to nine,
17:49nine and a half when it's all said and done,
17:52mostly because I think you gotta have
17:54that teaser protection in there,
17:57not giving folks an opportunity to tease Buffalo down
18:00under a field goal,
18:02because we all know that's a very likely situation here,
18:06and it's one that I might very well,
18:08if I can get it, Zen,
18:10be looking to tease Buffalo down under a field goal.
18:13But home favorites of nine or more points
18:16over the last couple of years,
18:1710 and one against the number at this point.
18:20So what it tells me is that
18:22if you are that big a favorite at home
18:25at this point in the season,
18:27you're that big a favorite for a reason here.
18:30I also like the overs, Zen,
18:32which also leads me to Josh Allen props
18:35that I think probably go over across the board.
18:38I think he goes over on his rushing prop.
18:40I think the passing yards prop,
18:42as long as the weather is intact,
18:44I think that's alive.
18:46And would it shock us if he had over,
18:48or had at least two touchdown passes here?
18:50I think all of that is legit overs in this game.
18:55Yeah, again, look, if the Bills are gonna win it,
18:57it's gonna be because Josh Allen
19:00is a big part of what they do.
19:02Whether it's an anytime touchdown,
19:04which we've seen him get a lot of this year,
19:07passing touchdowns, you know, again,
19:09all this stuff should be in play.
19:10And as you said,
19:11the weather is not gonna be too much of a hindrance here.
19:13So, and it's not like anything,
19:15Josh Allen's not used to playing at this point.
19:17Crying out loud, he came from Wyoming.
19:18So he's been playing in cold weather,
19:20snow and wind his entire life.
19:22But if Josh Allen isn't over 230 passing yards,
19:25I'd be pretty surprised.
19:27In any game, right?
19:29Like, there's not a game where the Bills
19:31just hand the ball off 35 times and go,
19:34here, James Cook, here, Ray Davis, go win us this game.
19:37Like, Allen is gonna be a big part of it
19:39one way or another.
19:40Like, 230 seems crazy low for me to look at
19:43as far as his passing yards prop.
19:46I agree 100% in that one.
19:49A good news though, has also come out
19:52as we're hearing that Jalen Hurts,
19:54full participant in practice for Philly
19:57as they get ready to take on Green Bay and Jordan Love,
20:02who looks like he is a go for this one as well.
20:04Four and a half's in, 45 and a half.
20:07I don't know that I love the over,
20:09but I kind of liked Philly,
20:11whether Jalen Hurts played or didn't play in this game.
20:14What are you thinking?
20:15Agree, this is the one side I feel pretty much
20:17the most confident on that Philly's gonna win this one
20:20rather handily.
20:22And in particular, Philly in the first half, right?
20:26Like, well, what has Green Bay done in every game
20:31where they've had to step up in class?
20:33Go look at the games that they've lost, right?
20:36They got down early, big to the Eagles in the first game.
20:42You know, down to when they lost to the Lions 24,
20:45it was 17-3 at halftime Detroit.
20:47When they lost to the Lions the second time,
20:50you know, it was 17-10,
20:52I'm sorry, 17-7 in favor of Detroit.
20:56When they lost to the Vikings the last time,
20:58it was 13-3 at half, right?
21:00Like they've had to do a lot of scrambling
21:03in games where they've had to step up in class.
21:05So I think the Eagles get out early.
21:07I think they lead early.
21:09Green Bay may make this tight at the end,
21:10but Green Bay ultimately pulls away and covers this thing.
21:14And you're right, and it's a great point by you.
21:17The Green Bay Packers have done great
21:19against 500 or less teams all season long
21:23when they've had to step up in class,
21:25namely in their own division.
21:27It has not worked out well,
21:28and they've kind of taken a beating here.
21:32I liked the first half under as well there.
21:35I thought that wasn't a bad look
21:37as I'm expecting Vic Fangio's defense,
21:40as well as Green Bay,
21:41because I don't know what we're going to get
21:42from a Jalen Hurts early in this game.
21:45Hadn't played a little while
21:46coming out of that concussion protocol.
21:48So definitely looking at the props in this one as well.
21:53All right, we got much more for Wild Card Weekend.
21:56Come back and join us here,
21:57the early line on the Sports Grid Network.
22:00All right, welcome back in here,
22:01the early line as we get ready
22:03for Wild Card Weekend in the NFL.
22:07And we've got some crazy lines across the board,
22:11some head-scratching lines across the board
22:15in some of these games,
22:16which would lead you to believe
22:17that maybe we're going to get a lot of blowouts this weekend.
22:22Joe Ranieri alongside Mark Zinno here.
22:24I want to go back into that Green Bay and Philadelphia game,
22:28because I do think the props
22:31between the two quarterbacks are interesting
22:33with Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts here.
22:36I think Jordan Love,
22:38that number of 220 and a half passing yards
22:41is interesting because LaFleur has shown
22:44over the last couple of weeks
22:46his insistence on running the ball,
22:49whether it's successful or not.
22:51Like he wants Josh Jacobs in the games
22:54and he wants him in early.
22:55And then if he's trailing at the half,
22:57then it looks like he lets Jordan Love,
23:00you know, start throwing the ball all over the place here.
23:03There is no Watson.
23:04And I think that's a big absence for Green Bay here,
23:10because I don't know.
23:11He's their big play threat, right?
23:13Without him, can you get into a shootout with Philadelphia
23:20with those wide receivers?
23:21I don't know that I'd want to.
23:23It feels like it's going to be much more run heavy.
23:26Feels like we should be fading Jordan Love in this spot.
23:28No?
23:30Yeah, I mean, look,
23:30I think if you're looking for this thing to go over,
23:33you're hoping the game script develops
23:34exactly what I just said last segment
23:36about Green Bay falling behind early
23:37and having to throw their way back in the game, right?
23:40That's the most likely scenario where it happens.
23:43I believe it or not,
23:44I think Tucker Craft is actually the beneficiary
23:46of Watson being out.
23:48And they will look to more tight end, you know,
23:50routes and things underneath
23:52with their inability to stretch the field
23:54and Tucker Craft may be the beneficiary of all that.
23:56But still, is there a game script
24:01where Green Bay can win this
24:04with Jordan Love staying under 220 passing yards?
24:08My first inclination is to say
24:09not without a lot of Philadelphia turnovers, right?
24:12Like that's kind of what you feel
24:15you're asking the Eagles to make a lot of mistakes
24:18and for Green Bay to just take advantage slowly
24:20and methodically throughout the game
24:24by kicking field goals and just staying within a score
24:27or staying ahead by three or four points,
24:29keeping themselves in front of the six
24:32and doing as best they can.
24:32But, you know, that's a tough game script to fill out there.
24:36I mean, it really, really is that
24:38if Jordan Love isn't successful through the air,
24:40that Green Bay looks like they're winning this game.
24:44Feels like it's the Josh Jacobs
24:45versus Saquon Barkley game to me there.
24:49And I'd be more inclined to look at maybe
24:51some of those rushing prop numbers with those two guys.
24:54All right, we talked earlier here, Zen,
24:57about rookie quarterbacks.
24:59We talked about Bo Nix having to go on a road
25:01to Orchard Park to take on Buffalo
25:04and how Buffalo's got all the experience,
25:07including at the quarterback spot.
25:09Well, same thing here in Tampa
25:11as kudos to Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders
25:15who great season, rookie quarterback,
25:18nobody saw them doing what they've done.
25:21And here they are in the post season for the first time.
25:24And it feels like forever taking on a very experienced
25:29Tampa Bay Bucs team and a quarterback in Baker Mayfield
25:32that has been here before.
25:35I couldn't imagine sweating out an under in this game,
25:38but I also can't imagine backing a rookie quarterback
25:42as good as he was this year in Jaden Daniels.
25:44I just can't do it.
25:46Yeah, I'm with you.
25:47I'm not wanting to back Jaden Daniels,
25:51a rookie quarterback on the road
25:52against a guy with playoff experience
25:53and playoff wins under his belt.
25:55Not only that, a rookie quarterback with a defense guy,
25:57it's got a very poor secondary, right?
26:00Like that is, you're asking this young man
26:03to continually throw and have to put the team on his back
26:07to get them forward or get them back in the game
26:09is a really bad game script for a rookie quarterback
26:12in that first postseason start, right?
26:14You kind of want it to be very slow, very methodical,
26:17and you want the running game
26:19to sort of help him out a lot.
26:20I don't know if that's the case
26:22because the Buccaneers are really hard to run on.
26:24You want to beat the Buccaneers,
26:25you got to do it in the secondary.
26:26That's not to say Jaden Daniels isn't capable of doing that,
26:29but again, there's going to be some nerves, some jitters
26:33for him going into this start in this game
26:35and trying to win the thing.
26:36So, again, I am someone who looks at things
26:39from a game script perspective,
26:40and I try to write a game script for the commanders here
26:44to be able to win this thing,
26:45and I just don't know if it's one that they do well,
26:48which is rely on the run, rely on the defense,
26:50and get to Baker Mayfield, right?
26:53Like they don't really have a consummate pass rush
26:56that's going to make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable
26:58and force him into some mistakes.
26:59If you can do that, you get a shot to be in this game.
27:03Yeah, Mike Evans,
27:05they're hoping to get Marshawn Lattimore back.
27:07The commanders are, that'll be fantastic
27:10seeing those two line up against one another,
27:13as well as Jalen McMillan.
27:15We'll have more on this.
27:16We'll welcome in our good friend,
27:18Mike Blewett next here on The Early Line.
27:20Welcome back in The Early Line
27:23here on the Sports Grid Network,
27:25as we are getting ready for wild card weekend.
27:29And there are a lot of wild card teams,
27:32I think, in this year's schedule that,
27:36heck, the odds may be a little crazy,
27:39but anything is possible in the playoffs,
27:41and we know this.
27:43We welcome in our good friend, Mike Blewett.
27:46He knows it better than anybody.
27:48He knows it better than anybody here,
27:50as Mike and I have done in-game live on Sundays,
27:54and we have watched all of these teams throughout the year.
27:57And every one of them at some point, Mike,
27:59we have scratched our head at some point going,
28:03are you kidding me?
28:04And yet, a lot of those teams are in the playoffs right now
28:08and are going head to head this weekend.
28:11Yeah, pretty unique year in that
28:14I think we would all agree that we like some teams,
28:18and we think they're strong,
28:19but there's warts with everybody.
28:22You can like Philly or Detroit in the NFC
28:25and also pick them apart through injuries
28:28and other shortcomings.
28:30And in the AFC, the team that's won back-to-back Super Bowls
28:35and is going for a three-peat has looked like crap
28:38on offense for most of the year,
28:40but that's not why they're winning games
28:42and they're a team to back.
28:44They're not playing this week,
28:45so we'll move on to Chargers and Texans.
28:48Yeah, well, it's an interesting one.
28:50Kicks it off tomorrow there,
28:524 o'clock, 4.30 Eastern time, kickoff in Houston.
28:58Listen, I don't know if Houston all of a sudden
29:01can figure out the offensive line issues and protect Stroud.
29:05I have a feeling, Mike, that if they can't,
29:07we're gonna get much of the same from this Houston team
29:11against the better competition,
29:14which is not a great look, especially in the second half,
29:16but it's all too strong.
29:18Two and a half, three is what the Chargers are
29:21as a road favorite.
29:22Are you buying them?
29:24I am buying the Chargers.
29:26I would say that whether it's over the course of a season
29:29or over the course of a game,
29:31it's very difficult to expect a team
29:34to be playing a certain way
29:35and then all of a sudden turn it around.
29:37It does happen.
29:38It shouldn't surprise us that much,
29:40and especially in a league like the NFL
29:41and with a team as talented as the Texans,
29:43that that could happen.
29:45But Zinno brought up something earlier
29:48that I think is really important for this week's games.
29:51There are a couple of situations
29:53where you look at the coaching matchup
29:55and you're like, I think this one team has a big advantage.
29:58Now, Zinno was referencing Sean Payton
30:00versus Sean McDermott,
30:02but I have a lot of respect for D'Amico Ryans,
30:04but is he Jim Harbaugh,
30:06who engineered a really impressive turnaround
30:09for the Chargers?
30:10Not that they won 15 games,
30:12but everybody's watching the Chargers
30:15knowing that they're more dangerous this year
30:17than they were under Brandon Staley
30:18or any of the previous coaches.
30:20It's just in one year.
30:22And they just protected Justin Herbert
30:23in a very interesting way,
30:25utilizing the running game
30:27and that offensive line in J.K. Dobbins,
30:29which is really the first way I would go,
30:31is that J.K. Dobbins, over 59 1⁄2 rushing yards
30:35and over 14 1⁄2 rushing attempts,
30:37I think is the way to go.
30:38I think they're gonna control the clock
30:40and not let C.J. Stroud make spectacular plays
30:43like he did in last postseason.
30:47And to that point, I think Jim Harbaugh,
30:50when you talk about the game script
30:51that he's going to develop,
30:52the one thing that he's done is secure the football.
30:55You're not going to beat the Chargers
30:57because they beat themselves.
30:59You're actually gonna have to go out there and do it.
31:00And I don't know that D'Amico Ryans and his staff
31:03have a game plan to be able to do that,
31:06especially when they control the clock so much, Mike.
31:09Yeah, I mean, Daniel Hunter has a sack
31:10in each of his last four postseason games.
31:13He's going for five in a row.
31:14He can create some pressure.
31:16Obviously, Will Anderson, who has been banged up
31:19at points during this year, can provide that.
31:21But this offensive line,
31:24this is not a soft landing offensive line.
31:26You're gonna have to get after it.
31:28And they have first round picks
31:30all over that offensive line that play that way.
31:33They're not first round in name only.
31:35Slater and Johnson and Alt
31:38are all legitimate Pro Bowl level offensive linemen.
31:45So let's move on, Mike,
31:47to a team that you're very familiar with
31:49in the Pittsburgh Steelers
31:51as they get ready to take on the Baltimore Ravens.
31:54How shocked are you
31:55that this is almost a double digit spread
31:58for the Ravens here who won't have Zay Flowers,
32:03but boy, oh boy, that is a big number.
32:06Is it warranted in your eyes?
32:09It's warranted when you look at the last month, for sure.
32:11Obviously, the history of these teams,
32:13the Steelers have won eight of the last 10,
32:15and there's a lot of low scoring games involved.
32:17But I think most people are looking at that game
32:19from just a couple of weeks ago
32:21and thinking, how could it be any different?
32:23I think the loss of Zay Flowers
32:25and the Steelers' inability
32:27to have any kind of punch in their offense,
32:29and this is not just a George Pickens thing.
32:33Joe, you and I talked about this.
32:34There are multiple issues here with this offense.
32:37Russ is the king of the throwaway pass now.
32:41He doesn't find,
32:41if he doesn't find something he likes, he chucks it.
32:44He's not running really with any kind of regularity now.
32:49I don't think they helped Najee Harris out at all
32:52in the way that he needs to be helped out.
32:54A lot of very predictable short yardage
32:56and first down runs do not allow him any space at all.
33:01So I expect a low scoring game here, though.
33:05So nine and a half when it's low scoring,
33:08I'd shy away from that.
33:10I could see the Ravens covering here,
33:12but the Steelers, with that number historically
33:17under Mike Tomlin, that's a lot of points to lay.
33:19I'd be afraid to lay those points,
33:21especially when I'm expecting an under kind of game.
33:26I mean, what's the number here, Mike?
33:27I said earlier,
33:28if the Ravens get really past 21,
33:31I don't think the Steelers have a shot to win the game.
33:33Now they can still cover it to a certain extent,
33:35but if they want to win this game,
33:37you know, there was a stretch, I was telling Joe,
33:39for a four year span where only once
33:42did either team get to 20, the Steelers won a 2019 game,
33:45but for four straight years, everything was under 40.
33:48So that's the only game script
33:50for the Steelers to win this thing.
33:52Agreed, but you know what's going to happen.
33:54They'll fail in the red zone,
33:55and Chris Boswell, who's basically the team MVP this year,
33:58will be out there kicking field goals.
34:01So 21 to 13 is probably a good number
34:04where you're under the Ravens almost cover, but not quite.
34:08So that's really the heart of it.
34:10And the three of us talk about this a lot.
34:12If you're expecting an under game,
34:14you can't lay this level of points.
34:16You want the Ravens 20 to 10,
34:18and you want to thread the needle on an under and a cover,
34:21be my guest, it's just a very difficult thing to do.
34:24This is the game, guys, that amongst all of them,
34:27and it's not my fandom speaking,
34:29I'm having the toughest time on props, player props,
34:32because I expect so many unders.
34:35You can certainly bet unders on Najee or Derek Henry,
34:39whose number is all the way up to 100.
34:42The Steelers have been pretty good
34:43in containing him historically,
34:45but he did get over that number the last time they played.
34:49So should be a good one there.
34:51I know a lot of folks and the money's come rolling in
34:54on Denver here as the underdog,
34:57taking on Josh Allen in Orchard Park,
35:00down to eight and a half,
35:01as high as nine and a half during the week here, Mike.
35:0447 and a half is the total.
35:06I think that number is a little low.
35:07What do you think of this game?
35:09Yeah, I think it could be,
35:12obviously the elements could play a factor.
35:15This is the one that you and I will have live on Sunday.
35:18Josh Allen's playoff numbers,
35:20you guys were discussing a little bit of it earlier.
35:23His rushing total, the 42 and a half,
35:25in 10 career playoff games, he's gone over that seven times.
35:29And he's done it both times last year.
35:33The year before that,
35:35when the offense completely fell apart,
35:36it was broken and they got blown out by Cincinnati.
35:39Those two games, Josh Allen didn't hit it.
35:42So you have to think when the offense is rolling
35:44in any kind of way, they're going to lean on him
35:46to be over that 42 and a half rushing yards.
35:50He's got spectacular numbers really through the postseason.
35:54Generally not his fault
35:56that they've lost some of these postseason games.
35:58And I think Zan brought up a really good point
36:00about Sean Payton,
36:02but I don't think the Bills have to be that creative
36:06to win this.
36:07The defense is better than it was a year ago.
36:10They just have to do the basics here.
36:12It's not a spectacular receiving core, eye-popping names,
36:16but it's been effective when they need it.
36:18And they utilize backs, tight ends, receivers,
36:21all the same.
36:23All right, we'll take a look here when we get back, Mike,
36:25at some of the current AFC championship odds,
36:29and then we'll focus on these NFC games that are coming up.
36:33Also some interesting spreads in those
36:36as the early line continues next here on The Grid.
36:41Welcome back in the early line here
36:43on the Sports Grid Network.
36:45Jaren Aron alongside Mark Zinno.
36:47We welcome back in our good friend,
36:48Mike Blewett.
36:50Wild card weekend is almost upon us.
36:53We just talked about the AFC side,
36:56and let's take a look at some of these
36:58championship odds here, Mike,
37:00which again, it seems to be a three-horse race here
37:04with the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Ravens.
37:07And quite honestly,
37:09until any one of those teams on the board
37:11can actually go to Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs,
37:13which is something none of them have been able to do,
37:17it's, I get why Kansas City's the favorite,
37:20but is there any value anywhere else
37:22on this board here to you?
37:24Not much.
37:25I mean, certainly it is a three-horse race.
37:27I'd be stunned if any of the other four teams advanced
37:31even to the AFC championship game.
37:34So I think it's those three.
37:38None of us should be stunned
37:40if any of these three teams make it.
37:43The Chiefs have not looked like their best version
37:46of themselves this year.
37:47I picked them preseason, as you did, Joe,
37:50to go to the Super Bowl.
37:51I'm still expecting that,
37:53but my confidence level has dropped some.
37:56I think the odds are indicative of that.
37:59Lamar, had he not won last year or won previous MVPs,
38:02Lamar is probably the MVP of the league
38:05based on his efficiency
38:06and some of the numbers that he's put up this year.
38:09I think the story has the hay in the barn
38:11for Josh Allen to win it,
38:13but that's kind of the story.
38:15Both of those guys are MVP candidates
38:17and can carry the teams.
38:19If I were betting on someone other than the Chiefs,
38:22it would probably be the Bills.
38:24The Ravens have fixed some of the problems defensively
38:28that plagued them earlier in the year,
38:30but it's still in the back of my head
38:32that the defensive backfield has not played up to the level
38:35that was expected over the course of the season.
38:38They have played that way, though,
38:40in the last four to six weeks.
38:42So it's a Super Bowl-quality team.
38:44All three of them are.
38:47All right, so let's look here.
38:50Sorry, John, I just wanted to throw one thing in.
38:52Go ahead, please.
38:54Look, if the Chargers get past the Texans, right,
38:58and both the Ravens and Bills,
38:59when you get one versus four, two versus three,
39:02the Chargers are playing a division opponent.
39:04To a certain extent, Mike,
39:05there is a coin flip nature to that
39:07when they go to Kansas City and play the Chiefs.
39:10Would it shock you if the Chargers upset the Chiefs?
39:13Surprise me, yes.
39:15Shock me, no.
39:17I think that's fair,
39:19because especially in the manner
39:21in which the Chargers would likely beat them,
39:24which is to make it a one-score game with five minutes left,
39:29and then anything can happen.
39:31A blocked field goal, a tipped pass.
39:33That's the way the Chargers really wanna win
39:35most of their games.
39:37They'd like to put you away earlier.
39:39Say that again?
39:41The coach you would trust the most out of all of them,
39:43out of the guys who are Andy Reid,
39:45whether it's Harbaugh, McDermott, or John Harbaugh,
39:48I would trust Jim Harbaugh over the rest of them
39:52to go and topple the Chiefs.
39:55That's a good question.
39:56It's hard to not say John, too.
39:58That's a fair argument and a fair debate.
40:01He's never got it.
40:03Didn't do it last year in his own building.
40:07I think that's fair.
40:08Yeah, Jim would make it a rock fight.
40:11The Chiefs are comfortable in rock fights, though.
40:13That's the problem.
40:14Every time you have this sort of circular argument,
40:17you're like, people are bashing the Chiefs all season
40:19for, oh, they should've lost the Broncos game,
40:21they should've lost this, and it's like, all right.
40:23By the end of the year, they've won two Super Bowls
40:26in knock-down, drag-out type of games,
40:30pushing into overtime, kicking field goals,
40:33and getting stops.
40:34It's wild the manner,
40:36I've said this a bunch of times on the show,
40:38the presence of Patrick Mahomes often distracts people
40:42from the quality of the other parts of the team,
40:45special teams, their defense, good at all three levels,
40:49Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie, and more.
40:52I just think that they would be comfortable
40:55in the rock fight, but I like the way you've posed it
40:57because I think the Chargers wouldn't mind
41:00being in that same scenario with them.
41:03Yeah, somebody's gotta beat them.
41:05If not, they're holding the trophy again there.
41:09NFC, Green Bay against Philadelphia
41:12in wild card weekend here.
41:14Jalen Hurts back in play here,
41:16a quarterback for the Eagles.
41:18Mike, what do you think we're gonna get here?
41:21Heard you guys talking about it earlier.
41:24The only way I feel like the Packers can do this
41:30is getting out to a huge start,
41:33and specifically Jordan Love.
41:35Not like a Josh Jacobs, we're controlling the clock,
41:38that would be interesting,
41:40but Philly doesn't get nervous in those scenarios
41:42because they're gonna do it right back to you
41:44and hold the ball for nine minutes on a touchdown drive.
41:47So it's Jordan Love getting the ball out to Reed,
41:52Dodge, obviously Watson's out now,
41:54and getting him going early.
41:58Joe, the reason we've been frustrated
42:00with Green Bay recently
42:01is they're getting off to these bad starts,
42:04and Love isn't getting involved early.
42:06I don't think they need to establish the run.
42:08If I'm Green Bay, I'm out there.
42:10My first 15 plays are a lot of passes
42:13to a lot of different receivers.
42:17Yeah, I think it's so good right now.
42:19It's moving to the line.
42:22It's actually five and a half now are starting to pop up.
42:25So the more Eagle money that comes in,
42:28the more it's gonna be very interesting to see.
42:32Ken Green Bay, can they win a game the Eagle way,
42:37I think is the big point,
42:38and can they grind out a win
42:41against the team that can grind it out, Zeno?
42:43I don't know.
42:45Yeah, I mean, again, I'd hate to say it,
42:48but the way to beat the Eagles sort of is through the air,
42:52and then loosen up the run game a little bit.
42:56It's, you have to force them to play from behind,
43:00and get them in a negative game strip.
43:02If they can just rely on Saquon with a lead,
43:05you may be dead in the water.
43:07Like just from a pure grind it out perspective,
43:09like you can't sit back and hope
43:12that the Eagles go three and out,
43:14and you can stop Saquon.
43:15You've gotta attack through the air,
43:17and try to get a lead, and try to take Saquon
43:20running on first and second down
43:21out of the game plan for Philadelphia.
43:25You gotta, Mike, you gotta want to if,
43:28do I want to shoot out if I'm Green Bay?
43:31Hell yeah.
43:32Yes.
43:32Definitely.
43:33You do.
43:34Absolutely.
43:35Yeah, yeah, yeah.
43:36You're not gonna, you want to force Philly
43:39to have to score points with you.
43:40I'm not saying it's going to be easy to do,
43:43and the range of outcomes is low for this,
43:46but I think absolutely.
43:48You want to be pushing,
43:49you want to get Philly's defense off the field,
43:51and score points.
43:54It's gonna be interesting.
43:57So is Washington, Tampa.
43:59We'll talk about that next here on The Early Line.
44:03All right, welcome back in,
44:04The Early Line here as we get ready
44:06for wild card weekend.
44:08Mike Blewett in the hot seat here with us,
44:11and Mike, let's go down to Tampa,
44:13where we got another one of these situations
44:16with a rookie quarterback taking on
44:18a very experienced quarterback,
44:20an experienced playoff team in Tampa Bay.
44:23It's a field goal.
44:24What do you think we're gonna get here?
44:27Well, first on the rookie side,
44:29never been a postseason to feature
44:31multiple rookie quarterbacks that have won a playoff game.
44:34So you got some Jaden Daniels out there.
44:38We'll see if they can pull off a couple of upsets.
44:40I don't think any of us like that,
44:42but it makes sense that this is the Sunday nighter.
44:46This one could be a lot of fun.
44:48I think I probably am in line with Zen
44:52in saying that putting Jaden Daniels in this scenario
44:57where he's in a full shootout with Baker,
45:01he'll probably feel comfortable at some point in it,
45:05but you're asking a rookie to try to stay clean
45:08on the road in a playoff game and not turn the ball over,
45:11and that would be really tough
45:13if he's playing from behind.
45:16The Bucs have the better run game, obviously.
45:19Bucky Irving's numbers are kind of crazy.
45:21The prop numbers now.
45:23Expectation for him to get 90 yards is ripping off
45:2690-yard games in a playoff game.
45:29I'm a little startled at that.
45:34We've watched Jalen McMillan become a really nice compliment
45:37to Mike Evans over the course of the last month,
45:39and it has allowed Baker's route tree
45:41and receiver options to grow.
45:45Not only are they throwing the ball to Bucky Irving
45:47and Jalen McMillan and Mike Evans,
45:48but they've had other players as well step up.
45:52So this is a tough one.
45:54I do expect points in it,
45:56but I'd have to side with the Bucs
45:58just because they have experienced players
46:02that have been here before.
46:03Washington has obviously only won one playoff game
46:07this century, so the Bucs at least have had guys
46:10that have been here before.
46:12Yeah, to that point, again,
46:14I think this game ultimately comes down to the trenches,
46:17believe it or not.
46:18For all the skilled position players that are here
46:20and the quarterbacks,
46:22can Washington contain Vita Veya up front?
46:25Can they have any success running the football
46:27against a very stout front seven of the Buccaneers?
46:29And then on the flip side,
46:32if Washington finds a way to make Baker Mayfield
46:34uncomfortable, he'll make a mistake.
46:35Baker's not immune from throwing the ball into bad spaces.
46:39And so really, I think that's what it boils down to here,
46:42Mike, is whoever wins the game up front,
46:44to me, is really ultimately gonna tell you
46:46how this game's gonna unfold.
46:48Yeah, and I think some props that you wanna look at
46:50are not necessarily yardage props,
46:52but explosive play props.
46:54The longest pass, longest reception, longest rush.
46:58I think some things like that are more likely to hit
47:02than maybe your standard yardage.
47:04Everybody's sweating the Mike Evans yardage prop last week,
47:07but I could see a 30-yard pass being completed
47:10to Evans or McMillan.
47:12And on the flip side, to Terry McLaurin,
47:14I think Terry McLaurin is in line for a pretty good game,
47:17especially if, even as you just laid it out, Zan,
47:21we may be in a situation where they're having to throw
47:25to get back into it to stay level with Baker.
47:29So Mike, Monday night, and in response, of course,
47:33to the wildfires that are going on in the Los Angeles area,
47:38the NFL has stepped in, moved this Vikings-Rams game
47:41to Glendale, where the home of the Arizona Cardinals.
47:45We're starting to see a little more Minnesota money come in,
47:47total still hovering around the same.
47:50I don't know that going from one indoor stadium
47:53to the next indoor stadium is a big difference,
47:55but what do you think in this one?
47:57Yeah, I don't think it's much of an impact at all.
47:59The Rams aren't known to have much of a fan base,
48:02and if the Vikings fans were gonna go to LA,
48:03they'll probably end up in Arizona.
48:05Obviously, my thoughts go out to everybody
48:08that's suffering in LA, and let's do everything we can
48:11to help out that community,
48:13but I feel like there's a lot of Rams support, Joe.
48:19I'm gonna stick to my guns on the Vikings.
48:22I talked a lot about them last week.
48:25I think there's an expectation that the Rams
48:28are gonna come in here and make Sam Darnold's life miserable
48:31like the Lions did, and that is the way
48:33that they will win this game, if they can do that,
48:35but I'm gonna stick with the Vikings
48:37over the course of the season.
48:38I think they've been the better team.
48:40I expect a really fun game in this one,
48:43but I'll stick with the Vikings getting the win.
48:46Yeah, I'm good.
48:48Kind of with you.
48:49I'm kind of with you.
48:50As much as Sam Darnold making his first ever playoff start,
48:53doesn't feel like he's a rookie making a playoff start,
48:56if that makes sense.
48:58Yeah, the Vikings have just proven
49:00over the course of the year,
49:01offensively and defensively,
49:03while they're not maybe as flexible as the Lions and Philly,
49:07they're a very flexible team,
49:08and they can beat you a lot of different ways.
49:10Low scoring games, high scoring games, they're in the mix,
49:13and Stafford is a very worthy opponent,
49:16but I think the Vikings get it.
49:19Wild card weekend, it's almost here.
49:21Mike Blewett, we appreciate the time as always.
49:24The early line continues here on the Grid.