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00:00And the Buckeyes are heavily favored to do so.
00:03They're an eight and a half point favorite,
00:06open as a nine and a half point favorite
00:09for the national championship game
00:11exactly one week from tonight in Atlanta.
00:14It's the Buckeyes of Ohio State.
00:16It's the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.
00:19Yes, and I'm looking forward to that.
00:20Should be a good football game.
00:22I wanna see if that Irish defense can prevail,
00:23because one thing we do know is it's way more talent
00:25on one side of the football,
00:27but sometimes that doesn't matter
00:28when it's a one game finish here,
00:30just play your best football.
00:31But let me ask you a question
00:32about the future of Texas, right?
00:33Because we do think it's Arch Manning.
00:35But let me ask you this though,
00:36Quinn Ewers has a year left with eligibility.
00:39He comes back to Texas,
00:40we would assume that Arch Manning
00:42would not play again, right?
00:44No, it's not going to happen twofold.
00:46Quinn Ewers also told ESPN's Pete Dammel
00:49before the Cotton Bowl,
00:49he intends to enter the NFL draft
00:51in what appears to be a weak quarterback class.
00:54Even if he decides that that is not his future,
00:57he's in the transfer portal.
00:59Quinn Ewers is not going to play again for Texas.
01:02Well, why not though,
01:03if he's the better quarterback and Stark likes him better?
01:05Like if he said, I'm coming back,
01:06like let's just say Drew Aller,
01:07where there's nobody really behind him,
01:08the kid transferred.
01:09But if he did come back, it would be interesting.
01:11I just look at it like this.
01:13If the kid was such a good recruit,
01:15you should have played him as a freshman,
01:16because quite frankly,
01:17you might've won a national championship this year
01:19if he had 10, 12, 15, 20 starts under his belt.
01:22I think it was mismanagement.
01:23Because when I watched Texas,
01:25I always thought the problem was Quinn Ewers, honestly.
01:28And Donnie, you're right to question why
01:30Steve Sarkisian did not make the move this year.
01:33A couple of things, Quinn Ewers did not go to Texas
01:36during his freshman year.
01:37He went to Ohio State and then quickly became
01:39the starting quarterback in favor of Hudson Card
01:42back in 2022.
01:43He was elite last year in the biggest games,
01:45that being Ewers.
01:47He faltered this year in the most significant of stages.
01:50He threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns
01:53against that Buckeyes defense, as good as you will see,
01:57and an interception at the end, but costly turnovers.
02:00Not sure the strip sack was all on him.
02:03He never saw Jack Sawyer coming to his right side.
02:07And again, even if it wasn't a strip sack,
02:09Texas would have turned the football over on downs
02:12for Ohio State probably to ice out the game.
02:15Just all to say, Donnie,
02:17if Quinn Ewers were to decide to return to college football,
02:20it would not be at Texas.
02:21I think the Longhorns have learned
02:23their future is in Arch Manning.
02:26It might've been Quinn Ewers now.
02:28It is Arch in the future.
02:30Live right here on the Early Line on Sports Grid,
02:33rounding out our first day of this new week.
02:35It is a Monday on TEL.
02:38Of course, Monday night football,
02:40a finale tonight to the wild card weekend,
02:43the opening round of the NFL playoffs
02:45with one more spot at stake in the divisional round.
02:48Tonight between the Vikings and the Rams.
02:50The winner will head to Philadelphia
02:52next Sunday afternoon to take on the Eagles.
02:55Philly, again, hypothetically,
02:57would be a three and a half point favorite
02:58against the Vikings at home.
03:00And that projected matchup,
03:02nearly a touchdown favorite against the Rams,
03:04a six and a half point number.
03:07That's next Sunday.
03:09Tonight is Monday, exactly one week from today.
03:12It's a college football playoff national championship game
03:16in Atlanta, Georgia, inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
03:19It's Notre Dame and Ohio State
03:22to be crowned a national champion
03:24in the first ever 12-team college football playoff.
03:28The largest field ever in a college football postseason
03:32in a chase for a national championship,
03:35requiring the most wins necessary
03:37to be crowned a national title winner.
03:40You heard it from DRS,
03:41and allow me just to make a point
03:43before we dive into the early numbers
03:45for next Monday's game.
03:47A lot was said about the college football playoff
03:50in the first ever 12-team rendition of it
03:54in that opening round, right?
03:56On-campus games, how cool and exciting those atmospheres were
04:01paled in comparison to the results.
04:0317.3 points per game,
04:05the average margin of our four games in the opening round.
04:09And in fact, we saw a lot of double-digit games as well
04:12in the quarterfinals between Boise State and Penn State,
04:16Oregon, Ohio State,
04:17even a game we expected to be close.
04:20Heck, Georgia and Notre Dame
04:21was still decided by two scores.
04:24The only game decided by a single score
04:26in our first eight matchups in our first two games
04:29was that wonderful double overtime thriller
04:32in the Peach Bowl between Arizona State and Texas.
04:35And that game featured a 13.5 point spread.
04:38The reason I bring all of this up
04:40because what we are seeing
04:42even in wildcard weekend in the NFL,
04:44or as we see in the NBA,
04:46in the opening rounds of a post-season,
04:48certainly in Major League Baseball as well,
04:51that once you reach the playoffs in any format,
04:55you are going to have blowouts
04:57even between the best teams in a league,
04:59the good teams that qualify for playoff success.
05:02There are different tiers.
05:03There are different pegs of what you will reach
05:06in terms of being elite,
05:08in terms of being on the upper echelon,
05:10in terms of being a true contender
05:13to be crowned a champion.
05:15And we have seen that in college football.
05:18I think there is little doubt
05:19that we saw the four best teams in the country
05:21actually square off by the time we reached the semifinals.
05:25And of course, in both games,
05:26the deciding moment of said matchup
05:29was in the final two plus minutes of regulation,
05:32a 41-yard field goal to win it
05:34off the right foot of Mitch Jeter
05:36between Notre Dame and Penn State
05:38in an exciting and exhilarating fourth quarter
05:41in Texas with first and goal at the one,
05:44needing to try to go for it on fourth and goal
05:47down by a touchdown
05:48with just over two minutes remaining in regulation
05:51only to have Jack Sawyer
05:53make perhaps one of the best defensive plays
05:55Ohio State has seen in over a decade.
05:59That is beautiful.
06:00You weed out the weaker teams,
06:02even in a post-season format in those early rounds
06:06to get the best of the best squaring off
06:08in the most significant moments of a game
06:11decided on an actual playing surface.
06:14And that's what we should have
06:15for a national championship next Monday night.
06:18Although the odds expected to be rather one-sided,
06:23Ohio State is an eight and a half point favorite.
06:25Our total is 45 and a hook.
06:28The projected spread was nine and a half
06:31in favor of the Buckeyes.
06:32As soon as Ohio State edged out Texas in a cotton ball
06:36in a line for this specific national title matchup
06:39opened up, it was still nine and a half
06:41in favor of the Buckeyes.
06:43Yes, we have seen some buyback on that spread,
06:46expecting Notre Dame to keep this game
06:48just a little bit closer,
06:50but it's still north of a touchdown.
06:53I do want to remind everybody,
06:55just in case even a national championship game
06:58seems a little bit lopsided,
07:01that in the 10-year history of the four-team format
07:03of the college football playoff,
07:05half of those 10 national championship games
07:08decided by at least three touchdowns
07:10with an average margin of 21.4 points per game.
07:15Just keep that in mind.
07:17But I expect this game to be closer.
07:19I think Notre Dame's defense has earned that benefit.
07:23And I think the Irish will be able to have enough success
07:26on the ground to keep this game close.
07:29I already bet Notre Dame plus nine and a half.
07:32I have two national championship tickets.
07:35One that I bet in early October on Ohio State,
07:38one that I bet as soon as the bracket
07:40for the college football playoff was revealed on Notre Dame.
07:44I'm feeling pretty good this week.
07:46That does it for the early line today.
07:48Returns tomorrow, 8 a.m. Eastern time on a Tuesday.