Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Live right here on the early line. It is a Tuesday, which now
00:04means we are just 48 hours from game day once again in the
00:09college football playoff on a Thursday night in South Florida.
00:13It is the Orange Bowl between the six-seed Penn State and the
00:16seven-seed Notre Dame in the college football playoff
00:19semifinal. The first of our two matchups that will decide a
00:23national championship game now just 13 days away 2 weeks from
00:29last night. We look at the numbers here on the early line
00:33and what we can expect for Thursday night in Miami at the
00:37Orange Bowl where it stands right now between the Irish and
00:41the Nittany Lions is a market that is working to Notre Dame.
00:45This basically opened at a pick them, which is basically
00:48where Notre Dame's last match up in the Sugar Bowl against
00:51Georgia closed. It is now two and a half points in favor of
00:54the Irish minus 137 on the money line a total that opened
00:58at 46 and a half has actually dropped by a four point to 45
01:03and a hook a defensive struggle a low scoring affair expected
01:08in Miami. So Joe as we look at this number and we see Notre
01:12Dame laying just two and a half points. How close and
01:16competitive do you anticipate the Orange Bowl is going to be?
01:20Well, it's certainly the market thinks it's going to be
01:23competitive and it should be because I think these are two
01:26of the best defenses in the country going toe to toe with
01:31one another. I do believe Penn State has had the easiest path
01:36to get to this point as they won and covered Ben has really
01:41big favorites in both games. You know, SMU couple of pick
01:46sixes 38 to 10. Then of course they did the same thing with
01:50Boise State. They ended up getting a late score there for
01:55those that laid that number with them. So I listen, it's
01:59been I'd rather be lucky than good sometimes and Penn State
02:02got the luck of the draw there, but they also let Boise State
02:06hang around in that game for much longer than they should
02:11have. Drew Isler only had 13 completions. They were out
02:15gained in that game. So if you play like that against Notre
02:20Dame, yeah, that's not going to turn out all that well, but
02:25this is another one. Ben, when I agree with the original
02:28market movement, this opened up 46 and a half 47. It's been
02:33bet down to 4545 and a half and I agree with it. Jeremiah
02:38Love still banged up six carries 19 yards here. I do not
02:43see Notre Dame or Penn State for that matter having all
02:50sorts of monster games offensively against these two
02:53defenses. I think both coaches are going to want to establish
02:56the run and the one who can win in the trenches is going to win
03:00the game. Ultimately, though, I think we don't even sniff 45
03:03points in this game, Ben. I think it's a dead under between
03:06these two teams. Could it look very similar to what we saw in
03:11the Sugar Bowl between the Fighting Irish and the Bulldogs?
03:14Very likely. That's what the odds are expecting right now.
03:18Penn State has scored 31 plus points in each of its two
03:22college football playoff games. Thirty-one against Boise.
03:26Thirty-eight, of course, in their matchup against SMU. Part
03:29of that, though, to pick sixes in the opening half. Penn
03:33State in those first two games, Joe, you mentioned the path. I
03:36bet the Nittany Lions at a minus 172 rather juicy, chalky
03:40number to get to the semifinal, but it still made sense to me
03:45because it was better than a money line parlay would have
03:47been for the Nittany Lions as an eight-and-a-half point
03:49favorite against the Mustangs and an 11-and-a-half point
03:52favorite against the Broncos. Why? Penn State as a favorite,
03:56as good as you will find in college football. Since the
03:59start of the 2022 college football season, five FBS
04:04programs have won double-digit games each and every season.
04:08Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, and actually Ohio.
04:13Shout out to Bobcats and what Tim Albin had done there with
04:16the Bobcats team. Now, I believe the head coach at
04:19Charlotte. Regardless of those programs, Joe, to win
04:22double-digit games since 2022, you have to obviously beat the
04:26teams you are expected to. In Penn State, since the start of
04:302022, as a favorite in 35 of 41 total games elite, 34-1
04:37straight up, 25-9-1 against the spread. Both the best win and
04:41cover percentage as a favorite among power conference
04:45programs. But what about the other six games? Booked as a
04:49dog. Yeah. Now, that's where things get dicey for James
04:53Franklin and company. It's only a two-and-a-half point spread.
04:56When it first opened, it was basically a pick-up. But Penn
05:00State is still not expected to win outright. And when they
05:04have been booked as an underdog in the last three years, they're
05:080-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread.
05:12Covering as a 15-and-a-half point underdog the only time
05:15against the Buckeyes in 2022 but still lost that game by
05:20double digits. So, Joe, for me, until I see that change, it's
05:25rather simple. I believe in this Notre Dame team. I have a
05:28fighting Irish ticket to win a national championship. I bet
05:32Notre Dame on the money line as soon as this line opened up
05:35around a minus 115 number. Yeah. Well, listen, if that's
05:38the case, you're gonna bet him to win this game. You might as
05:41well bet him to win it all too while you still can at what?
05:44Three to one, Ben, somewhere along those lines. Yeah, I
05:49would go all in. If I'm on Notre Dame, I'm going all in
05:53here. I do think this is a great live betting game as well
05:57because I do think you're gonna be able to get probably a
06:01better number on Notre Dame or Penn State if this game
06:03unfolds the way I think it will. But to me, the total is
06:09what happens when it's nothing going into the second quarter
06:12or three nothing, Ben. Uh you know, in about seven minutes to
06:16play, where is that total going to be? It's gonna be in the in
06:20the mid thirties here and I think a middling opportunity
06:23certainly will present itself here. All four games for either
06:27of these two teams, Marcus Freeman's, Irish, James
06:30Franklin's, Nittany Lions have stayed under so far in the
06:34college football playoff. Penn State in both against SMU and
06:38Boise State and of course for Notre Dame and their two
06:41matchups against Indiana and Georgia. Key matchup for me,
06:45Joe, in terms of the actual X's and O's, the two-headed
06:48monster in the backfield for Penn State. Nick Singleton,
06:52Katron Allen, who both have been elite really since the end
06:56of the Big Ten Championship game against a Notre Dame rush
06:59defense that allowed 66 yards to Georgia, 63 yards against
07:04Indiana. That will turn the tide in this game. If the
07:08Nittany Lions can be prolific like they have been in their
07:11last three, it might start to favor Penn State. Just not sure
07:15it happens against Al Golden, Notre Dame defense. The Cotton
07:19Ball on a Friday night. Next, we are just two days away from
07:23our doubleheader in the college football playoff semifinal.
07:26First game on Thursday in the Orange Bowl between Notre Dame
07:30and Penn State. Our next game, our final CFP semi on a Friday
07:35night in the heart of Texas. Dallas, the site of the Cotton
07:39Ball, not the actual Cotton Ball Stadium, but that being AT&T
07:43Stadium, Jerry World, of course the home of the Cowboys. For the
07:47in-state team in Texas, taking on the National Championship
07:51favorites, entering the Final Four, that would be Ohio State.
07:55The Buckeyes, a five and a half point favorite against the
07:58Longhorns for Friday night in the Cotton Ball. The total
08:01stands at 53 and a half. And Joe, to me, the story of this
08:05game as we begin our breakdown is the market movement we have
08:09seen. Projected hypothetical numbers. If Ohio State won the
08:13Rose Bowl and Texas outlasted Arizona State in the Peach
08:17Bowl, the Buckeyes will be an ever so slight favorite against
08:20the Longhorns. A point and a half, a couple of cents on the
08:23money line. Ohio State overwhelmingly impressive
08:26against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Texas struggled and
08:30escaped into overtimes against ASU as a two touchdown favorite.
08:36So the perceived notion, maybe Texas not as good as we thought
08:40and oh, this Ohio State team is the team we expected all year
08:44to win a National Championship. Line opened up for the Cotton
08:49Ball at four and a half after those two results on New Year's
08:52Day and then quickly got bet up to five and a hook. Joe, we
08:56love the FanDuel Sportsbook. It is the sponsor of this show.
08:59But in other spots, this line is even closer to a touchdown.
09:03Is the spread too large or does it feel fitting for Friday
09:07night at the Cotton Ball? Listen, I had said watching that
09:12Ohio State mauling of Oregon that no matter what, the value
09:18was going to be on Texas because recency bias was going to
09:23creep in. We were going to see Texas who had to go to overtime
09:27there to beat Arizona State. And yet we watched Ohio State
09:30make the number one team in the country look like they didn't
09:34even belong in the same field. So we all knew Ohio State was
09:38going to get a ton of public love in this one. So is the
09:42value in Texas? Yes. Does that mean they're going to cover this
09:47number? Absolutely not. It has absolutely nothing to do with
09:52it. I do think the best team is Ohio State. I have a ticket on
09:56Ohio State to win everything here, and that includes them
10:01beating Texas here, Ben. I don't see Texas going toe to toe
10:06with how this Ohio State team is rolling right now. And the
10:10other problem I have too here, or my only concern with Ohio
10:14State, is that this team put so much energy and effort to get
10:20even with Oregon. That that was the game they wanted, Ben, that
10:24they looked past Michigan again because they thought they were
10:26going to get it in the Big Ten Championship, and then they fell
10:30flat there, and then they had to wait for the playoffs in order
10:34to exact that revenge. And they did, and they did in a big way.
10:38There is no history here between Texas and Ohio State. Two very
10:43rich historic programs, but not against one another necessarily
10:47here. And my only fear is that maybe Ohio State left it all out
10:52for Oregon, which will show up early in this game. But I do
10:56think that defense and offensively the best team
10:59remaining is Ohio State, and I do think they will eventually
11:03get it done here, not just in this game, but in the National
11:07Championship game. Joe, I hear that point exacting revenge, a
11:12revenge tour against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, a game we
11:16expected to be the Big Ten Championship. But Ohio State
11:20should never, although it seems as though they might, look over
11:25the game, which they have lost four consecutive times to
11:29Michigan. I do believe once they knew they were drawing Oregon
11:32in the Rose Bowl, it was about proving that Ohio State stands
11:36atop the mountain in college football. And like you, way back
11:40in early October, before even the initial matchup against the
11:44Ducks, I bet Ohio State to win a National Championship, didn't
11:47even get the best of the number at plus 290, but it is now minus
11:53120. The Buckeyes, the odds-on favorites to win a college
11:56football playoff National title. Texas entered the quarterfinal
12:00round as that National Championship favorite, just so
12:04you know. The Longhorns have not been a dog all season long.
12:09Neither has Ohio State, and the Buckeyes, of course, have
12:13covered impressively so in each of their first two games in the
12:16college football playoff. They are plus 45, that being Ryan
12:20Day's Buckeyes, in their point differential in their first two
12:24matchups. That's an average margin of victory of 22.5 points
12:28per game. Joe, like you, I think this could close Texas as a
12:32six-and-a-half-point dog, and there would be value on the
12:35Longhorns. But ultimately, I think Ohio State wins the Cotton
12:38Bowl and the National Championship. We're on the early
12:41lines next.