Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00All right, so now let's talk about actual college football that we're excited for this
00:05upcoming Monday night in Mark's Neck of the Woods in Atlanta, Georgia, inside Mercedes
00:11Benz Stadium.
00:12It's Ohio State and Notre Dame.
00:14You know, we're now just a few days away.
00:16The guys are getting to the ATL to get ready for this national championship matchup, meeting
00:22with the media, sharing their thoughts on how this game is going to be played.
00:27The odds makers have already shared there, they expect it to be a lopsided affair for
00:33the Buckeyes.
00:34Eight and a half point spread, was nine and a half at open, has worked its way down ever
00:39so slightly, but still north of a touchdown.
00:42Total 46 and a half for two of the three best scoring defenses all year long in college
00:48football.
00:49That's what the odds makers believe.
00:51How close does Mark Zinno think the national championship game will be on Monday night?
00:56Well, I will be there in attendance at Mercedes Benz Stadium on Monday.
01:01So I will have a good seat to this whole thing.
01:04I don't know that Notre Dame can win this game.
01:07I think they can keep it close to stay with inside the number.
01:09I don't think it's all that much of a stretch.
01:12My biggest matchup issue here, and you know, no disrespect to Indiana, but they just don't
01:17have the horses in the barn that other teams in the playoff did, right?
01:20I think it's fair to say that at this point in time.
01:23But the Notre Dame defense has not faced a passing offense like this.
01:28Georgia doesn't have people on the outside like Ohio State doesn't.
01:31Neither does Penn State.
01:32Tyler Warren is a fantastic tight end and will be one of the probably first drafted
01:35tight ends in the NFL this year.
01:37But he's not the threat that Smith and Agutba are on the outside for Ohio State.
01:41This is just a complete mismatch in favor of the Buckeyes, as Ben chuckles at me and
01:46smiles because he's going to tell me again I'm wrong.
01:48And yes, I'm going to bet against Notre Dame for the fourth straight game, and I'm going
01:50to be wrong again for the fourth straight game.
01:52So I'm going to lay the eight and a half on Ohio State because at this point, I'm all
01:56in.
01:57I just chuckled at the way you pronounced Emeka Agutba's last name.
02:02That's why I was chuckling.
02:03It's all good.
02:04We cleared that.
02:05I think you said Agutba, which is just like a mix of some of the letters for Agutba in
02:10his last name.
02:11But that's why I was laughing.
02:13Not on Ohio State.
02:14You know, I agree, right?
02:16I think the Buckeyes are the superior team.
02:18I think Notre Dame's defense can do enough of the rushing attack and keep them within
02:22this margin.
02:23Ultimately, I believe the Buckeyes win outright.
02:25All right, Donnie, right side, your time.
02:28Just looking at the game itself, too, because Notre Dame obviously is very good, so is Ohio
02:32State.
02:33You look at that line, it's easy to say, like, OK, somebody can stay within it.
02:35But is there a legitimate chance that Notre Dame can win this football game?
02:39And if there is, what can they exploit from Ohio State that seems to win at every position,
02:44Mark?
02:45I mean, if Notre Dame is going to have a chance to win this game, right, you've got to cut
02:49the head of the snake off.
02:50And the head of the snake is Will Howard.
02:51You've got to get in his face.
02:52You've got to bring him to the ground.
02:53You've got to make him force turnovers.
02:55That's the only way to do it.
02:56You know, if you learn anything from Texas is that you can force Will Howard into turnovers
03:00and into bad throws, as he did in that game.
03:03And if Notre Dame has any measure of success doing that, that's the way the game is in
03:08their favor.
03:09If the Ohio State offensive line can keep Will Howard clean, I don't know that Notre
03:13Dame is a shot.
03:15Especially if Ohio State gets out to a lead.
03:17Again, Notre Dame playing catch up is not a game script that favors them, right?
03:22Everything within Penn State.
03:23They did it against Penn State, right?
03:24They were down 17-3.
03:25Credit to them.
03:26You know, they came back from 14 points.
03:28Would you want them to follow that two weeks in a row against a better team than Penn State?
03:32I wouldn't go with that game for success.
03:34They've got to stay within the score of the entire game.
03:36Yeah, I think it's a really good point, you know.
03:38They don't necessarily have the aerial attack, Riley Leonard and the Irish, to keep pace
03:43with an Ohio State team that can score with the best of them, but also can defend with
03:48the best of them, as can the Irish.
03:51So we'll talk about that total, with a national championship at stake of 46-1, and some player
03:57props up next on Your Line.
03:59We are just a few days away from a national championship in the college football playoff
04:04between Ohio State and Notre Dame on a Monday night in Atlanta, following division around
04:10weekend in the National Football League.
04:13Zinno is here with us, finally, for a second consecutive segment, and Zinno, I teased it
04:18before the break, let's dive right in.
04:2146-1 is the total for Monday night's national title matchup between the Buckeyes and the
04:27Irish.
04:28We know how elite both of these defenses are.
04:31How many points do we see on Monday night in the ATL?
04:34You know, again, let's just use some comparative analysis here between last game for Ohio State
04:40with Texas, and you get a total of 54 that opened 53-1.
04:46We talked about it last time we talked college football, I was like, that's an insane number.
04:49I took the first half under and didn't really have to sweat it, because both of those teams
04:54weren't going to do a lot.
04:56Look, this number comes down a whole lot, right?
04:59We talk about eight points here, seven and a half points.
05:02That's probably where I thought the Texas-Ohio State total should have been.
05:07I still lean under here.
05:09Again, I'm more willing to look at this and go, Notre Dame team total under 18 and a half,
05:15figuring that they're only going to get to 17.
05:18Even if their defense is successful and the pace is slow, that's going to actually favor
05:23Notre Dame not scoring as much.
05:25I look at this and go, if the over comes in, it's because Ohio State gets to 35.
05:29I mean, that gets into the low 30s, 33-35 range, and Notre Dame backdoors this thing
05:36with 17 at the end, right?
05:38That's kind of the way the math works out for me from a game script perspective.
05:41But again, I would look at Notre Dame's team total under.
05:44I don't think they're going to find the end zone all that much against Ohio State.
05:46If Texas couldn't do it, what makes you think Notre Dame's going to be able to do it, rather?
05:51So again, under here, but certainly Notre Dame team total under would be my first look.
05:56Let's take a look at some of these prime-time props in here.
06:00We'll start with the quarterbacks, because I look at the passing numbers here at the
06:02Fandula Sportsbook.
06:03Will Howard, 245 and a half, makes sense, got elite wide receivers.
06:07Riley Leonard listed at 178 and a half.
06:09To throw a touchdown pass is minus 180 for Leonard and Will Howard over one and a half
06:13is due at a minus 148 price.
06:16But also, the legs of the quarterback might determine who's going to win this game.
06:19Riley Leonard sitting at 36 and a half rushing yards.
06:23If you're playing these two quarterbacks, Mark, which way are you playing them?
06:28I mean, you have to lean with the Will Howard passing over.
06:33From a game script perspective, if he's not getting to that 240-yard mark, do we really
06:39feel like the Buckeyes are dominating this game?
06:43I mean, they have to have some measure of success in the passing game.
06:46If Smith and Egbuka, as I have to redeem myself, Egbuka, are having success in the passing
06:53game, that means Ohio State is moving the ball and they're scoring.
06:57At this point, we've learned you're not really going to have much success running on Notre
07:00Dame's defense.
07:01So why even try?
07:02I mean, when I say why even try, it's like you're obviously going to have to run the
07:05football, but that shouldn't be what your game plan is designed around to go right into
07:08the teeth of the Notre Dame defense.
07:10Take advantage of corners that haven't really been matched up and look at how well Texas
07:15did for the most part with the big playability they had against Ohio State's corners.
07:18So I think they can be had in the passing game as well.
07:21But still, I look around and I go, if the Ohio State receivers are not getting fed the
07:27ball, then Notre Dame is controlling the tempo of this thing.
07:30Will Howard is under a lot of pressure and Ohio State's in trouble.
07:35Jeremiah Smith is season low in terms of receptions, just one, and receiving yards, only three
07:41in that cotton ball matchup on Friday night against Texas.
07:45Cornell Tate, the leading receiver for Ohio State.
07:48Zeno, you believe the Buckeyes win this game and probably do so rather comfortably.
07:53You mentioned that Will Howard in a passing attack for that Chip Kelly Ohio State offense
07:58is key.
07:59Let's go to the other side for the fighting Irish.
08:01If Notre Dame is able to keep this game within striking distance or even potentially pull
08:07off the upset to be crowned a national champion, who is the most key offensive contributor
08:13for that Irish offense and what it looks like come Monday?
08:17Well, the Riley Leonard rushing yard prop better go over and that includes obviously
08:21the loss he's going to take with sacks because he probably is going to take a couple, but
08:25he's going to have to help move the sticks on third downs, especially in those third
08:27and long spots.
08:28I mean, that's, I think that's going to be crucial for them.
08:31But Jeremiah Love, I think his, if I remember correctly, his attempts prop is at 11.
08:37If he is not given the ball 12 times and even at that 12 is still a short number.
08:43That means Notre Dame is behind.
08:45They're having no success running the football and you're relying on Riley Leonard's arm.
08:50Like I would expect early and often that Jeremiah Love has fed the ball and if he can get six
08:55or seven carries in the first half, that means at least that they are staying within one
09:00score or, you know, a 10 point range where they still want to try to keep the run game
09:05going.
09:06Like that to me is another game script prop here that I look at and go, does love get
09:10the requisite carry share that he needs to go over that number?
09:13I would lean.
09:14Yes.
09:15If I look at it and go, Notre Dame isn't having any, any success running the football and
09:19they're trailing.
09:21If we take a look also at players to score a touchdown, a lot of times in college football
09:24games, you get some wonky ones like minus two 50, minus two 60.
09:28They're pretty good price.
09:29You're at the fan.
09:30Those sports book, the leader in the clubhouse right now, Jeremiah Smith at a minus one 35.
09:34Then you have quench on Judkins at minus one Oh five and everybody else.
09:37Mark is at a plus money number.
09:38If you had to pick one person to score a touchdown in a national championship game, who would
09:43that be?
09:44Quench on Judkins.
09:45I mean, I feel like he's kind of their, their, you know, workhorse back when it comes to
09:50the goal line situations.
09:51We've seen that a couple of times before, saw it against Texas.
09:55He's the guy I think that, you know, they've relied on all year long, um, in those big
10:00spots and short yardage spots.
10:01So if they get with inside the five yard line, I don't think that Ryan day and company are
10:06going to think too hard about this one, about just trying to pound it in that way.
10:10So I would, I would go with, with quench on Judkins.
10:14It is minus one Oh five right now for Judkins.
10:17He scored twice in the cotton ball matchup against Texas.
10:21Jeremiah Smith actually has the strongest price to hit pater at minus one 35.
10:27It also should show you that for the five best prices to find the end zone hail from
10:32Ohio state, only Jeremiah law, but a plus one 35 number has that shortest price within
10:38the top five for the Irish.
10:41We expect it to be Ohio state.
10:43It's an eight and a half point spread in favor of the Buckeyes, a total of 46 and a half
10:48Notre Dame seeking its first national championship since 1988, Ohio state.
10:54It's first since 2014, the Buckeyes and the first ever college football playoff won a
11:00national championship.
11:01The Buckeyes are the first ever 12 team college football playoff, hoping to pull off the
11:07same feet.