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00:00Live right here on this Thursday on the early line on SportsGrid. It is the eve of Christmas,
00:10at least in college football. It is the start of the 12-team college football playoff on
00:16a Friday night under the watchful eye of touchdown Jesus in South Bend, Indiana, to begin a new
00:23era of crowning a national champion in college football. So to set the stage, who better
00:29to join us than one more Zeno, live right here on this Thursday on TEL. We will preview
00:36all four games in the opening round of the CFP, including the first-ever on-campus playoff
00:44game tomorrow night between Notre Dame and Indiana. Zeno, it feels like the holidays,
00:50does it not?
00:51It absolutely does. It's the most wonderful time of year, and who better to spend it with
00:56than Ben Stevens and DRS. I mean, you know, if Christmas ever said the odd couple, it's
01:02Ben Stevens and DRS.
01:05I kind of get that. I think we, yeah, okay, that makes sense.
01:08I don't expect this to get here around a couple of cocktails with the three of us at a table
01:13debating everything about life. That would go over well.
01:17Maybe it's cold outside. All right, Zeno, let's talk a little college football in the
01:21opening round of the CFP. Starting tomorrow night, you don't have to wait until Saturday.
01:25On a Friday night in South Bend, it's the seven-seed Notre Dame in the in-state showdown
01:31against the 10-seed Indiana. Seven and a half points spread in favor of the Irish. Total
01:37stands at 51 and a hook. Zeno, of course, when you look at this game, if you stare at
01:44IU, the only other time they were an underdog this season, they didn't keep it all that
01:49close against Ohio State in their second to final regular season game. Notre Dame against
01:56non-MAC foes has been downright dominant throughout this 2024 college football campaign. How competitive
02:04of a matchup do we get to begin the first ever 12-team college football playoff tomorrow
02:10night in South Bend?
02:11Look, I got to tell you, you know, we sat here a couple of weeks ago, and DRS, you'll
02:19remember, Ben left us in quite a mood about our feelings of Ohio State and Indiana. We
02:27ended up being on the right side. I say all that to say that, Ben, you were not wrong
02:34in your assessment of Indiana. You were just wrong about that game. I am backing the Cougars
02:39here plus the seven and a half, and I give them a great chance to win this game outright.
02:45Here is the rub on this whole thing. We've talked all year long about how Indiana didn't
02:48play anybody. Newsflash, guess what? Notre Dame hasn't really played anybody either,
02:54and we forget that because they have had a lot less, you know, scares, and they haven't
02:58really been ranked inside the top five. The best offense that Notre Dame has faced statistically
03:04all year long, guys, has been Louisville, okay? In that game, Notre Dame was outgained
03:10by Louisville by 115 yards. Louisville had three first-half turnovers that led to 17
03:16Notre Dame points, and yet still, Notre Dame could only win that game by seven. I respect
03:24Marcus Freeman. I respect his defense, but this is a level of offense that they have
03:28not seen yet this year. Curtis Rourke and Indiana are coming in, and Kurt Cignetti are
03:33coming in with a chip on their shoulder to remind everybody, not only do we belong in
03:37this tournament, we're better than you think we are, and guess what? We're going to go
03:40upset Notre Dame, a team that lost to Northern Illinois on their home field.
03:45Let me just jump in real quick, DRS. Just real quick, again, I must remind everybody
03:50that the idea I had the Indiana-Ohio State game wrong is highly incorrect. I had one
03:55bet on the game. It was Indiana to cover as a seven-and-a-half-point first-half dog. I
04:00cashed that ticket even despite Indiana trying to ruin it with poor punting and special teams
04:07play. Thank you very much, DRS. Continue from where you were going to.
04:12Indiana and Notre Dame, two teams that are used to playing in cold weather, so I don't
04:15think there's going to be any major advantage either way, which swings us now over to the
04:19noon kickoff game on Saturday. That's SMU and it's Penn State. Three of these four games,
04:24Mark, we brought up earlier in the show, played at sub-freezing temperatures here. No stranger
04:29here to Penn State. This game's going to be played in the 20s. No precipitation, which
04:32is great. Slight winds around 10 miles per hour, but we are looking at some of the numbers.
04:36The Vanduul Sportsbook here in New Jersey opened this game up between SMU and Penn State
04:40at 53-and-a-half, still basically in that range. The number on the game, minus 7-and-a-half,
04:45now at 8-and-a-half, even some outlets, Mark, up to minus 9. What are you going to see from
04:49this Saturday noon kickoff between SMU and Penn State?
04:53Points. A lot of points. Best bet of the week, guys. Over 53-and-a-half, locked in as soon
04:59as the line came out. Look, this is a Penn State offense that just put up 37 points on
05:03an Oregon defense that was top 20 in the country in the Big 12 championship game. And you're
05:08looking at an it-in-your-lines offense that's gotten better and better as the season has
05:11gone along. Penn State didn't break 30 in three of their first Big 10 home games, one
05:18of which was against Ohio State. But they've scored at least 35 before their last five
05:21conference game. The one game they didn't, that was on the road, their home in this one.
05:25For SMU, you've got to go back to late October for the last time that they didn't score 30
05:29points in the game. In fact, they've only failed to score 30, 33 times this entire season.
05:35So SMU isn't scared of anybody at this point, nor is Rhett Lashley. I'd be shocked if Penn
05:41State doesn't get to at least 30, 34 in this game. And I think SMU does enough to get to
05:4520 in the rest here. I think we see a lot of points. I think it's a fast-paced game
05:49despite the conditions and everything else. I mean, look, it's going to be good football
05:52weather. You're not going to see a ton of wind. There's going to be no snow or anything
05:54like that. You're going to just get a cold day, which should help both these offenses
05:58continue to do what they do. And that's put up points on the regular.
06:02SMU elite up front, fourth best rushing defense in all of college football. Penn State, one
06:08of the elite defenses in every major category. But two Zinno's points, both offense can score
06:15some points. Penn State in its first five Big Ten games, 33 points or fewer in all five,
06:22averaging just 24.4. They went over in four of their final five Big Ten games, including
06:28the Big Ten title against Oregon, averaging better than 38 points per game. Zinno, I like
06:35the look there. Let's get to our second game of three on Saturday in Austin. It's the five
06:41seed Texas in the bid stealer of the bunch. But despite winning the ACC championship to
06:47earn that automatic berth to the college football playoff, no team, no coach has more experience
06:55ever in the history of the CFP than Clemson in Davos, Sweden, as the 12 seed. Zinno, this is
07:01our largest spread of the opening round. It is the only number that is double digits plus. It's
07:0711 and a half in favor of Texas. You look at the over under in Austin, also 51 and a hook. How do
07:15you approach the matchup between the Longhorns and the Tigers?
07:19It's a real tough game to cap, to be honest with you. I'm not in favor of laying 11 and a half
07:24with Texas. So it'd be Clemson or pass from a side perspective for me. But there is a game
07:29script where Texas's defense, which we saw is legit and choke out Georgia. They can do the
07:35same thing again here to Clemson. I mean, in the opener of the season, Georgia's defense was
07:41probably the best version of itself all the way back, you know, three months ago, you know,
07:46limited Clemson to three points. Texas defense has been better than Georgia's all year long.
07:49There's a game script where where, you know, Texas wins this thing 31 to 10. There's absolutely a
07:55game script where that happens where the whole thing stays under Texas can cover. I think the
08:00game script that's least likely is for this to be a shootout. Like honestly, I don't know that it
08:04is. I mean, a shootout probably would favor Clemson. And how much do you trust Texas's
08:08offense at this point, when it was clearly again, not a great Georgia defense that they just
08:13couldn't seem to execute and take advantage of throughout the entire SEC title game, and
08:18particularly in overtime. So, you know, I don't trust this Texas office at this point. And
08:23furthermore, I really want to trust Sark to lay double digits in these big moments when we've
08:29seen him come up short more often than not, in these big moments. It's a real tall task. I mean,
08:34again, it's the game that I'm staying off of but I lean Clemson plus the points.
08:39You know, what's really interesting, two of these powerhouse programs, at least in the last two
08:44decades, Texas for longer than that. First ever meeting between Clemson and Texas in a football
08:51game. How about that with the burnt orange on display on Saturday afternoon in Austin, Texas, a
08:58favorite in every game this year, seven and six against the spread perfect for an OATS in
09:05non-conference action. Clemson as an underdog, blown out by Georgia, won outright in the ACC
09:11championship against SMU. Our nightcap on Saturday in Columbus and the path to a playoff and a
09:20national championship. The nightcap of a Saturday tripleheader in the first ever 12 team college
09:27football playoff. It's our 8-9 matchup in an invasion of volunteers in Columbus, Ohio, as
09:37number eight, Ohio State will host number nine, Tennessee. And I use host maybe in air quotes. If
09:43you've been following some of the fan based conversations, entering the shoe on Saturday
09:49night, a lot of the tickets put on the resale market for a college football playoff game, not
09:55just simply in Ohio State home football game inside the horseshoe. Tennessee fans have
10:01overwhelmed the system. They bought nearly 42% of those tickets put back on the market might be a
10:08lot of orange in a crowd on Saturday night, but still Zeno the Buckeyes more than a touchdown
10:15home favorite inside the shoe. It is our lowest total of the opening round of the CFP that
10:21continues to plummet now down to 45 and a hook. How do you break down the matchup between the
10:27butts and the balls? Well, before I give you my play, I will agree with you. And here's the
10:32interesting part about what's going to happen here on Saturday. And I'm sort of here for the chaos.
10:39If Tennessee goes up like 14 nothing, how restless will the natives in that stadium get? How quickly
10:44will they turn on Ryan day? You might even see them walk out like honestly, like I think that
10:50there's a world where they are that irritated with what has gone on at Ohio State and their
10:55inability to beat Michigan and then win a national title that that may happen. Now to your point, Ben,
10:59I took a different approach to this game than I have to the other ones. I took a first half under
11:04and I got it at 23 and a half and that number is gone because as you've mentioned, the total is
11:08plummeting here. So we're down to 22 and a half and 22 in the first half. When I look at a game
11:13script of the way this first half is going to unfold, first of all, you're gonna have cold
11:16weather. Second of all, you're gonna have two defenses that are really, really good. And for
11:20as much as we looked at Tennessee at the beginning of this year, when they were putting up all those
11:23points is unstoppable on offense. Guess what? We found out their offense against good SEC teams is
11:27pretty pedestrian. So you're gonna take Nico and you're gonna put him in cold weather where he's
11:32never played before and ask him to run an offense that hasn't really been scoring against good
11:35teams. I don't think it happens. I think there's a game script where both of these defenses show
11:40out early and both of these offenses don't do much. I think there's a game script where Ohio
11:44State's defense shows out early and shuts on Tennessee and our offense is good enough to get
11:48up, score two touchdowns and be up 14 to three and a half. I think that one works. I think also
11:53the flip is true, where if Tennessee gets a couple of early scores when Ohio State's offense,
11:57which is nothing to get excited about, doesn't have the ability to come back against a stout
12:00Tennessee defense, Tennessee could be up 17-0 at halftime. I think the least likely game script is
12:06where both of these offenses score a bunch and score early a bunch. I think it's going to take
12:09them two quarters to get adjusted to each other and figure out what each other's defense is
12:14doing and how they're going to navigate through that. I think the cold weather certainly will
12:18limit Tennessee's offense and I certainly don't trust Ohio State's Will Howard. So give me the
12:21first half under in this matchup. It's an interesting point, Mark, you do bring up because
12:25when you look at this game, it is going to be a great one. It's primetime Saturday. It's cold
12:29weather, but there is something to say about we're on the road. So it's almost like, okay,
12:33we can play our own game. We know it's going to be a hostile territory. The one thing that we
12:36haven't really talked about is like Ryan Day losing that game to Michigan, still made the
12:41college football playoff, which saved his job. But now if they lose at home to Tennessee in a
12:47playoff game, there's a chance that he's going to be fired later that night or the next morning.
12:51Talk to me about like Ryan Day coming into this game, understanding that, hey, if we're down
12:557-3, that pressure really ratchets up and maybe that plays a part in this game itself.
13:01I mean, remember, no one cares how you win. People only care how you lose, right? I mean,
13:05if they end up stealing a one point win, whether it's 16 or 15, he's going to survive and he's
13:09going to be fine. No one's going to care. That said, if he loses the game and loses it
13:14convincingly, then there's a real problem. And you're like you said, I think he's fired by the
13:19end of that night. There may be some consternation if he loses a close one and depending on how it
13:23goes and how it works out. But the bottom line here is that, as I said, if this doesn't start
13:29fast for Ohio State, there's going to be a lot of bluebirds raining down in the horseshoe. It's not
13:34going to sound fun. And the Tennessee crowd that's there, the whole Orange is going to be standing up
13:38and cheering. You know, there'll be a faction of Ohio State that probably wants him to lose just
13:42to get this thing over with so they can fire him and move on. I mean, as far as the fan base is
13:46concerned. You know what will be clenched in a very tight way if this game is tight throughout
13:53a majority of it or the Buckeyes do trail now. Ryan Day, who served as the interim head coach
13:59for a couple of games in twenty eighteen, has an overall record in six plus years in Columbus
14:05of sixty six and ten. It's the second best win percentage at the FBS level, only trailing
14:10Oregon's Dan Lanning. Eight of those ten losses have come against top ten foes, which is what
14:17Tennessee is. The only loss against an unranked team happened to be the fourth consecutive in
14:23the game against Michigan. But Ryan Day has the blessing and the confidence right now of Ohio
14:30State's A.D. in Ross, New York for not just the college football playoff and beyond. I still am
14:36not fully sold on the idea that if Ohio State gets to the semi, the national championship game
14:42or even wins the darn thing, they will still look at him as a great head coach in Columbus. But let's
14:50talk about that path, you know, throughout this playoff bracket, because it is the additional
14:55wrinkle. It is the most teams. It is the most ever games we have ever seen in the history of
15:00college football to crown a national champ. Oregon is the one seed in the bracket, but awaits the
15:07winner of the tightly contested Ohio State and Tennessee game. The Ducks are the favorites by
15:12ten cents. Texas only ten cents back at plus three sixty. The Buckeyes and the Bulldogs of Georgia
15:19tied for that third best place at five to one. You know, before we get started tomorrow night
15:24in South Bend, what do you think is the best value or perhaps the best bet to win a national
15:29championship in the college football playoff? Well, the one bet that I would make, and if you
15:34could find it out there where it puts both teams in a Texas, Georgia, you know, third matchup is
15:39where you go. They both have the easiest paths. They both have the easiest paths to get there
15:43because my feeling is, guess what? That Texas, when they get past that first round matchup,
15:48um, isn't or get to the semifinals, they're not going to be facing Oregon. I think Oregon might
15:52lose to Tennessee or Ohio State, especially if it's Ohio State there where they've already played.
15:57So, yeah, I don't know that that Oregon has, you know, got a favor by getting the one seed here,
16:03given the way this bracket has been set up. Georgia, again, they're not really going to
16:09be challenged. Will Penn State could Penn State beat them? Sure, they could. I think Penn State
16:13probably is a better power at Penn State better than this year. That said, do you trust James
16:18Franklin to go be the top five team? The answer is no, because we haven't seen him do it. So,
16:23you know, I think Georgia and Texas are on a collision course back to the title game.
16:27So, Zeno, there are some markets out there where you can bet exact outcome, the team to beat who
16:32in the national championship. If you just want both into the title, Texas and Georgia,
16:38a parlay at plus 760 might be worth a sprinkle. We'll talk more with Mark Zeno up next.