• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00Let's get you set for week number three in college football again, maybe not the most
00:10robust slate we have ever seen 59 FBS college football games on a Saturday, two games today
00:18that feature three big 12 teams, Kansas and UNLV in Lawrence, the Jayhawks a seven and
00:25a half point favorite against the running rebs who maybe are being courted by the new
00:31look pack 12.
00:32That's a story for a different day.
00:34But Ranieri, I think there was an argument to be made that the best game of the entirety
00:38of the week.
00:39Three college football slate is not tomorrow on a Saturday as it often is.
00:44It's on this Friday night in Manhattan, Kansas to the little apple.
00:48We go one of two ranked versus ranked matchups in week three.
00:53Kansas 20th ranked Arizona, number 14 K state.
00:58Again, you look at this game, Oh, a big 12 matchup to start things off this year for
01:03the grouping of the Wildcats.
01:06That is incorrect.
01:07This is a non-conference game does not have ramifications on the big 12 standings.
01:13Total is 60 and a half.
01:14And what stands out to me, Joe, Kansas state more than a touchdown favorite at home against
01:20Arizona.
01:21Is the line fitting or is it a little bit too steep?
01:25Well, it depends on who you think is going to win this game.
01:30If you think that Arizona, who is coming off of a very lackluster performance against Northern
01:38Arizona, which I do think is, is playing into the market perception of this team.
01:43I mean, there are some changes, although they have plenty enough offensive returning starters
01:48from a year ago, including their quarterback, the philosophically it's about the same Kansas
01:54state.
01:55Listen, that game against Tulane, would we be having the same conversation if Mensa doesn't
02:01get picked there in the end zone at the end of that game, we could be having a totally
02:06different discussion and different line for K state.
02:09I think the perception of both these teams is they are going to be able to put up points.
02:13I think defensively that's where both of these teams are going to have some issues.
02:18The tempo is going to be there.
02:19I quite honestly, Ben, don't know how this thing stays under any total you throw out
02:25there.
02:26It is a key number, of course, seven and a half, but my goodness, there are going to
02:31be a ton of points.
02:32And when you got such a high total, that kind of spread shouldn't bother you.
02:37If you're looking to lay it with Kansas state.
02:40Now Kennesaw state currently in FBS program did play a couple of FBS foes a year ago,
02:46and technically was the best cover team in the country as they were one and Oh, against
02:52the number.
02:53But if you go outside of just one game, Arizona was the best cover team in college football
02:58a season ago, 11 and two against the spread and nobody better at covering numbers as an
03:04underdog.
03:05Zona last year, six and Oh, against the spread as an underdog, only three outright victories
03:10fine.
03:11But covering numbers by an average margin of 17.4 points per game in those six contests
03:18booked as the dog.
03:19So the hook added on to the seven does stand out to me.
03:24Neither of these groups of cats has covered so far this season, Arizona tested week one
03:31by New Mexico last week, nearly a 40 point favorite against Northern Arizona FCS foe.
03:38They want 22 to 10 and in week number one, Joe Nova Fida had more than 400 passing yards,
03:45more than 300 of them went to his top target, Ted Aroha, McMillan, one of the best wide
03:50outs in college football.
03:52Last week, the guy had two grabs for 11 yards.
03:54I have no idea what happened, but you mentioned Gary and Mensa and Tulane last week in New
04:00Orleans, close to 350 through the air against this Wildcats secondary and three touchdowns.
04:09So that should lead you to know if a feeder tonight to 69 and a half and T-Mac here's
04:14receiving yards prop 94 and a hook.
04:17I would keep an eye on DJ Giddens.
04:20That's K States running back 100 and a half is his rushing yards prop.
04:25He has gone over that in six consecutive games, each of the first two this year for K State.
04:30The final four, a season ago in Arizona has been getting run on so far this season.
04:36But to your point, Joe, I think we see some points and some offense tonight in the little
04:40apple, a top 20 tilt on a Friday, perhaps the best game of the weekend on a Friday night,
04:47which means the only ranked versus ranked matchup that we have all Saturday long is
04:52in Columbia, sixth ranked Missouri, 24th ranked Boston college.
04:58The only top 25 tilt on a Saturday, as we all expected.
05:03We mentioned this game with proud BC alum, Mike Blewett, 16 and a half points in favor
05:08of Mizzou total 53 and a half.
05:11Rene is the spread too large for this top 25 tilt.
05:16Uh, no, I, I, I do think it's exactly where it needs to be, uh, Ben just sickly from the
05:23standpoint of this Missouri team.
05:25Uh, I, I liked him.
05:27There's nothing not to like about them, certainly offensively.
05:32They are good to go.
05:33Bill O'Brien, I think is going to try to slow this game down to a crawl.
05:36Then they're going to try to limit, uh, the possessions there for Mizzou, which is their
05:41best shot at trying to win this game.
05:44Uh, so if you're going to take the, the points to 16 and a half, I would also correlate that
05:50big time with the under 53 and a half.
05:53I don't see any situation in BC covers a shootout.
05:57I don't think that's what they want.
05:58I think Bill O'Brien knows that.
06:01So yeah, I, I do think this is either blowout or outright upset.
06:06I don't think there's anything in between Boston college, of course, an outright upset
06:11week.
06:12Number one against another rank foe in Florida state, but that might be a fraudulent ranking
06:16next to FSU.
06:17One of 34 teams in the country this year, two and Oh, against the spread.
06:22One of the few though, that is one outright as an underdog in that perception.
06:27This is the first time that BC has been ranked since 2018.
06:30Joe, this is the first time that Boston college has played in a ranked versus ranked matchup
06:36since 2007 when Matt Ryan was playing quarterback in chestnut Hill.
06:43It's been a very long time, Missouri best scoring defense in the country.
06:49This year, Corey, but tune the new defensive coordinator, take it over for Blake Baker.
06:54They have held both of their opponents scoreless.
06:57One FBS foe included Buffalo last week, Brady cook, Luther burden, one of the best quarterback
07:04wide receiver combos in the sec yet to break out.
07:08Maybe keep an eye on those numbers for tomorrow against Boston college.
07:13We'll get to the rest of the week three slate and some of the best games in college football
07:17on your Saturday up next live right here on the early line on sports.
07:23Let's set the stage for week number three around college football, a rapid fire whip
07:27around a hit on as many games as we can in the next five plus minutes, Purdue hosting
07:33Notre Dame this week.
07:34The Irish now ranked 18th in the country.
07:37I think the spoiler makers are a little bit mad at the Huskies from N I U.
07:42They were hoping to be the team to upset Notre Dame because Purdue has the most wins against
07:46an AP top five foe as an unranked club in the history of college football, 17.
07:53It's just that Notre Dame is no longer in the top five, but remains in the top 20.
07:59The Irish Joe less than a double digit favorite now on the road in West Lafayette against
08:03the boiler makers.
08:05How critical is this game and what do you want to see out of Notre Dame in response
08:09to the huge upset last week at home against N I U.
08:14It shouldn't be a surprise that Notre Dame is struggling here and it shouldn't be a surprise
08:20that this is no longer a double digit favorite on the road here, Ben.
08:24The offensive Notre Dame is terrible.
08:28Anybody who thought another, you know, ACC quarterback from the bottom tier teams was
08:34going to come in and save Notre Dame and elevate them have been sadly mistaken.
08:40You did it last year when you had to go to wake forest and pluck their quarterback.
08:44You did it this year with Duke.
08:46Riley Leonard's also hurt and his non throwing shoulder, which means he's not probably going
08:51to run as much and take as many hits in this one, Ben, uh, Notre Dame is going to win games
08:58because of its defense.
09:00They are going to lose games because their offense can't score enough entirely still
09:05too many points.
09:06Uh, but you know what?
09:08This is either going to be a Notre Dame 45 to nothing or they lose outright to Purdue.
09:13So I'll take the plus two 85.
09:16Yeah.
09:17Listen, you're not wrong in that thought show.
09:19When you look at Purdue last year, first year under Ryan Walters, four and five against
09:23the spread as an underdog three outright victories, the Boilermakers had a weird week to buy after
09:30a week one shutout over FCS and in-state foe, Indiana state Hudson card, the Texas transfer
09:37second year in West Lafayette, darn good, 24 of 25 for 273 yards and four touchdowns.
09:44The second most efficient passer in college football at the moment, only behind old Mrs.
09:49Jackson dart.
09:51So they've been focused on this game.
09:53We talk about overreactions week one to week two in the national football league.
09:58This feels like a slight overreaction Peru entered this year and I don't want to slander
10:01the Boilermakers.
10:02I love them.
10:03I wish they could play spoiler.
10:05But Purdue entered this year with the lowest wind total in the big 10 at four and a half.
10:09And Notre Dame is now less than a double digit favorite because of what happened last week.
10:13Listen, Riley letter has to be better.
10:15He has not thrown for more than 163 yards this year and two costly interceptions last
10:21week against NIU.
10:23It feels a little bit reactionary.
10:25Not that I advise laying nine and a half with the Irish, just again, a little bit reactionary.
10:32What a week it is for the forgotten two in the PAC 12, the announcement yesterday morning,
10:39the addition starting in 2026.
10:42And I do not believe that the timing was just ironic.
10:47I think they knew what they were doing entering rivalry week for the forgotten two against
10:52their former PAC 12 foes.
10:55We've got the civil war between Oregon state and Oregon.
10:59And on top of that, Joe, the Apple Cup on Saturday in Seattle, not inside Husky Stadium.
11:06Mind you, this game at Lumen Field where the Seahawks play only a four and a half point
11:10spread in favor of the Huskies.
11:13What do you make of it?
11:15Yeah, I think this is interesting because Washington state has been flying under the
11:20radar.
11:21I had him last week as a as a big Batman taking on Texas Tech at home that nobody gave him
11:26any credit for.
11:28This is a real team in Pullman.
11:31Also defensively, they are flying around that that field.
11:35Will Rogers, the former Mississippi state quarterback there is now flinging it for Washington.
11:44Washington's defense, I think, is better.
11:46This to me is going to be a wild one.
11:48I do think we're going to get some points.
11:50So I tend to look at the over when these two teams usually get together.
11:56Fifty five and a half.
11:57Is that number?
11:58John Matir is still running out on the blues, one hundred and ninety seven yards for Wazoo
12:03last week at the quarterback spot.
12:05They won outright against Texas Tech at home a two and a half point underdog against Texas
12:11Tech.
12:12Thirty seven.
12:13Sixteen fraudulent program, though, in Lubbock, Texas.
12:16Quickly here in Erie, let's look at a couple of the lines for Saturday.
12:20Tulane, Oklahoma, OU barely surviving last week against Tulane's former head coach Willie
12:26Fritz.
12:27Now in Houston, the Green Wave cover that number, in my estimation, just show the week
12:32three slate so the people can take it in a huge SEC Saturday.
12:37And of course, a couple of those rivalry matchups as well.
12:41We could spend forever on college football.
12:43Got to give you the pick next.

Recommended