Met Office Afternoon Weather Forecast 05/09/24 - Heavy rain in the south
Heavy rain affecting southern parts of England and south Wales this afternoon continuing into the evening. Cloud with some drizzle for north eastern areas but brighter across northwestern areas. Staying warm in the north and very warm in the north west but cooler in the south. - This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the afternoon of 05/09/24. Bringing you today’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, stark contrasts across the UK during the next few days with some very wet weather
00:07in some places and some very warm weather in others. And it's north-western parts of
00:12the UK where summer has been missing from action during the last two months basically,
00:18where we're going to see the warmest and sunniest weather, whilst it's southern parts where
00:23we'll see the wettest weather. What's happening? Well, basically the jet stream has extended
00:27so far south that it's cut off its own circulation and this circulation contains an area of low
00:32pressure that's going to sit over France. When this happens, the main flow of the jet
00:36stream is unable to move along these cut-off lows and they tend to stay in the same place
00:43for day after day. As a result, we see a lot of the same weather in the same places. That
00:50means that in some parts of the UK we're going to see a lot of rain accumulating and although
00:55there will be some damp weather in the east on an easterly wind, it's essentially towards
01:01the south of Wales and the south of England where we'll see the largest rainfall accumulation.
01:06So this is the 48-hour rainfall accumulation throughout Thursday and Friday and as you
01:10can see, widely 25-50 mm of rainfall. But in some spots, for example across parts of
01:19Devon, Somerset, South Wales for example into Hampshire, there is the risk of 100 mm or
01:26more through Thursday and Friday. So rain warnings in force. Check the latest on those
01:31via the Met Office app and website. But the rain has already set in across the south and
01:37south-west and it's essentially turning heavier and more persistent heading into Thursday
01:41afternoon. It mostly stays to the south of the M4 corridor. North of that we do have
01:47a lot of cloud, especially for north-eastern parts of the UK and some drizzle on that low
01:52cloud as it arrives from the east. This easterly wind, it's not a cold easterly by any stretch
01:57of the imagination, it contains a lot of humid air that's been drawn up across much of the
02:02UK from central Europe. As a result, when it hits the land, it results in a lot of low
02:09cloud mistiness around the coasts and hills of north-east England, south-east Scotland.
02:14But that cloud then gets broken up so that brighter skies are expected across parts of
02:18north Wales, north-west England, west of Scotland and northern Ireland and temperatures rising
02:22here during the next few days. High teens, low 20s expected on Thursday afternoon whilst
02:27those temperatures will be seriously suppressed across the south and south-west. Mid-teens
02:32more likely where the rain is persistent and heavy at times. That rain will come and go
02:38through the evening and overnight. It does ease off for a time after dark across the
02:42south and south-west although it stays drizzled with a lot of cloud. And again, we continue
02:46to see this mist, fret, har effecting the north sea coast of north-eastern UK. But there
02:53will be some clear skies around, perhaps across east Anglia, Lincolnshire, as well as western
02:58Scotland and northern Ireland, north-west England overnight. Nevertheless, because of
03:02this humid airflow, even if you've got the clear skies, it's not going to be a chilly
03:05night. In fact, it's going to be a particularly muggy night with temperatures well above the
03:10seasonal average, 16, 17, 18 Celsius, a muggy one for sleeping. Then we start off Friday.
03:17Many places dry first thing, but once again, the showery rain starts going through the
03:22morning and there will be some heavy downpours and that rain consolidating once more into
03:27this area of persistent and at times heavy, perhaps even thundery rain. The thunderstorms
03:34most likely early in the day actually on Friday. By the afternoon, it's this narrow band of
03:39heavy rain that's likely to run along the south coast of England. It does ease off around
03:45the M4 into south Wales, some sunshine coming through here. Actually, plenty of sunshine
03:51across much of the rest of the UK, Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England, parts
03:55of Wales and east Anglia. Just that area of low cloud coming and going across the north
04:01sea coast, some mist, some drizzle at times here. Feeling cool because of that low cloud,
04:07inland where we do get some sunshine, a marked contrast, mid to high 20s in places. You could
04:13see 27 Celsius, for example, across parts of Cambridgeshire and northwest Scotland.
04:18If we get 27 Celsius, 26 or 27 most likely numbers, then it will be the warmest day of
04:24the year so far for western Scotland. Quite a remarkable turn of events compared with
04:30the summer and beautiful weather to come across northwest England, north Wales, northern Ireland
04:37compared with how we've seen things during the last few months.
04:41That rain continues to go across the south and you can see how that leads to below average
04:47temperatures. The blues coming along there for south Devon and Cornwall. This is the
04:51temperature difference compared with the month's average maximum temperatures. As you can see,
04:57there's this sharp gradient around the M4 corridor northwards where it's significantly
05:02above average. Any small adjustments in the position of the cloud and rain, of course,
05:07will make a big difference to the feel of the day in this zone where you've either got
05:12the cloud and the heavy rain or just a bit further north, you've got some humid air but
05:17also some very warm sunshine coming through northeastern parts, of course, limited by
05:22that low cloud which will tend to creep inland for some overnight into Friday night.
05:27Actually, it becomes increasingly cloudy on Friday night with the rain in the south, that
05:32narrow but heavy band of rain pushing north once again into south Wales. So, stay up to
05:38date with the warnings for rain. They may be tweaked over the next couple of days. There
05:42is the risk of transport disruption, some of the heaviest rain coming through at the
05:46rush hour both on Thursday evening and into Friday morning and Friday afternoon and the
05:52risk of river flooding and surface water flooding. But it's the south and southwest where the
05:57heaviest rain will affect. Many other places are going to see some very warm and at times
06:02sunny weather. Big contrasts over the next few days and then all change again into next
06:07week. You can find the latest on that in the 10 Day Trend which is on our YouTube channel.
06:11Bye bye.