8 BOLD Patriots Predictions for 2024 season | Pats Interference

2 months ago

The Ringer's Brian Barrett returns to trade bold Patriots predictions with Andrew about the team's biggest upset win this year, a possible winless start, a new Pro Bowler, expectations for Drake Maye, the defense and more.

0:00 - Quick intro
2:06 - Bold predictions season
6:04 - Tough schedule ahead
8:52 - Patriots win in Miami
10:40 - Drake Maye's potential start
13:15 - Jacoby Brissett struggles
15:01 - Drake Maye's skill set
17:10 - PrizePicks
19:50 - Patriots' tough schedule
22:15 - Peppers' standout season
24:00 - Running back analysis
27:10 - Offensive line concerns
29:02 - Bill O'Brien storyline
30:34 - BC's competitive potential
32:22 - Patriots' relevance questioned
34:51 - Patriots' season recap
36:33 - Bill O'Brien's return
39:00 - Anticipated coaching changes
40:54 - Future offensive struggles
42:58 - Kendrick Bourne trade talk
46:10 - Draft pick implications
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Transcript

00:00Okay, quick intro today. We have a lot of fun with The Ringer's Brian Barrett, who is

00:18back from Off the Pike podcast. We did a little home and home action, so you'll hear us go

00:22back and forth about me being on his show, and obviously he's on today. Before we get

00:26to that, first of all, hope everyone had a lovely holiday weekend. Second of all, there's

00:30been a lot of smaller news up until today, Tuesday. Players are off. Drod Mayo spoke

00:35yesterday. We heard from a couple players in the locker room. They practiced. Wednesday

00:39tomorrow is the real, okay, this counts now. They're going to have practices, meetings.

00:44We're in a regular season style schedule for the next 18 weeks. That's it. This is awesome.

00:50This is where we want to be. As far as the little news, though, it's worth saying, we

00:53have six captains now. Jacoby Brissette, David Andrews, Juwan Bentley, Deidre Twyse,

00:58Jabril Peppers, Joe Cardona. Half those guys are new captains. Cool. Baderian Lowe, Siddy

01:03So, still missing practice. Not cool. So the Patriots offensive line is in flux. I will

01:08not have a full deep dive game preview until later this week, when we will be in our regular

01:14season style schedule, talking about film reviews on Monday nights, and then a preview

01:18either recorded Thursday in the afternoon or Friday in the morning. Friday, I will also

01:24have more of a season style preview. So a big, long episode for you. Plus, Jonathan

01:29Jones is going to come back for a four-minute drill. If you've been enjoying those, please

01:33let me know. If you'd like to see them changed up, also please let me know. Which gets me

01:37to my final point. Ratings and reviews, baby. Keep them coming. It's been really helpful,

01:42good and bad, to bring the best out of the show of what could be, as we know, a difficult

01:46Patriot season. But that's not going to stop us. So more guests, more four-minute drills,

01:50more player content, more bold predictions, which are coming up now. And that'll do it

01:54for me. So I will see you in a couple of days. Not much going on for now. So let's fill it

01:58with some of the best stuff of the summer. Football's almost here. But football predictions

02:04are here. Okay, it is time. It is everyone's favorite time. And I'm not talking about post-Labor

02:09Day. I'm not talking about leaves falling. I'm not even talking about football being

02:13here. I'm talking about football almost being here. Bold predictions, SZN season. And with

02:21us for more bold predictions, we have the Ringers' Brian Barrett of the Off the Pipe

02:24podcast. Here's the deal. Brian has four, I have four. We're going to alternate. I'm

02:28going to do a couple of live ad reads. And by the end, you will have had so much goodness,

02:33so much football prognostication and forecast, and things will have blown your mind. You

02:37will be trying to listen to this again. Brian, are you trying to, are you ready to live up

02:42to that promise that people are instantly going to re-listen to this podcast with all

02:45the boldness and all the predictions that we're about to deliver? I am ready. I am able.

02:51I'm going to try to mix in some positive ones here too, because I know most of the off-season

02:55and the training camp and the pre-season has been negative with the Patriots. So I'll try

02:58to mix in some positive ones too. Good. Excellent. I will, I will do the same because I plotted

03:04this out where you get two more realistic ones, two that are a little bit more optimistic

03:08that say I snorted a little bit too much at the bold predictions here, but that's what

03:12we're here for. And we're going to waste no more time. I want your spiciest, your boldest,

03:16your what the hell did I just say prediction off the top of the 2024 Patriots.

03:21Okay. It's tough to narrow down, but I'm going to go with this one because I don't think

03:25most people think this. I think the defense is going to be below average this season.

03:31So there's a couple of reasons for this. Okay. You look back to last year and you're like,

03:34what are you talking about? They were fifth in points per drive. They were third in yards

03:38per drive. They were fifth and plays per drive. And all this was when your opponent

03:43had the best field position in the NFL, because the offense was so bad. Right. And I also

03:46don't expect the offense to be very good as I think nobody expects the offense to be good.

03:51There were also seventh and success rate eighth and EPA per play. But here's the thing, the

03:57Patriots last season 19th and pressure percentage. They were 27th and sacks and they were just

04:0331st and quarterback knockdowns. And all this was with blitzing at the fourth highest rate in

04:09the NFL. And despite all that, they still had a good defense, but Christian bar more,

04:13unfortunately dealing with this blood clot situation right now, he led your team last

04:18year with eight and a half sacks. You say, well, you get Jude on back. No,

04:21he's in Atlanta and I'm not re-litigating the trade. I totally understand why they did it.

04:25But the point being is the guy that you penciled in to be your pass rusher is no longer here.

04:30Who J without Jude on took a massive step back. Remember two years ago,

04:34unbelievable numbers, double digit sacks to last year, only having three sacks.

04:39So I guess what you're depending on from a pass rush perspective would be a huge year

04:44from Keon white in year two. And maybe he's the breakout guy and maybe he takes care of

04:48the pass rush and maybe who chase that secondary guy, but who J if you're game planning for him,

04:53I don't think he's going to be very effective. And then I look at this Cal hand Patriot schedule,

04:57Joe Burrow to start the season. Then it's Gino Smith. And here's some numbers on this

05:02Gino Smith when kept clean last year, 8.4 yards per attempt, seventh best. Okay. Then

05:07it's Aaron Rodgers. Who's won a couple of MVPs week for you play the Niners,

05:11uh, Brock Purdy when he was kept clean first in the NFL and yards per attempt,

05:17Miami to a kept clean fourth best in yards per attempts, Houston Stroud third best in

05:23yards per attempt. So your first six games guys, when they're kept clean three out of

05:27the top five in the NFL, Gino Smith, that's seven. And then you have Aaron Rodgers and

05:32you have Joe Burrow in there. And by the way, we'll see what happens with this T Higgins situation.

05:37You look at the, I love Christian Gonzalez, but you look at his sort of the schedule he

05:43has to go through. We'll see what your Marchase, but if he's not there, it's T Higgins. And we'll

05:47see what happens here in Cincinnati, but Medcalf Garrett Wilson, who had over a thousand yards

05:53with the combination that they had in New York last year, which is an amazing feat.

05:56Like he shouldn't want someone to work for that. Brandon, I, you Tyree kill. Okay. Like

06:01that is a bear of a schedule. So I look at that. It's going to be tough to creep back

06:05toward average after you play all these teams. I, I promised at the beginning people would be

06:11relistening. I think we've lost everyone. I think they're gone. I think they're fully

06:15depressed. They were ready to, to soak in the boldness and the goodness. And that was,

06:18that was plenty bold. That was a first sip of coffee that has you running to the bathroom,

06:22immediately Venti, bold, whatever from Starbucks. And that's where we're going.

06:26But I, man, I, so I appreciate the predictions, the context, and you've lived up instantly than

06:33it's named a metric, man. Do you firmly believe this though? Like, do you, do you given everything

06:39that happened last year? I know the blitzing and the numbers and all that, but like given the talent,

06:42everything that came back, most of the defensive staff is still back. You really think this is

06:46going to happen? Well, it's also based on the schedule that they have the opponents that they

06:51have. So let's say they had the hardest schedule in the league last year too. And then, then

06:55things ended up defensively, defensively being okay. Sure. Yeah. I mean, yeah, that's a fair

07:01point. I just look at it and I say, I could easily see them starting the season one in five,

07:05which I think is a realistic outcome. And some of these teams putting up really good numbers

07:11against the Patriots defense, which I think by the end of the year could skew it. I'm not saying

07:15they're going to be like 28th or 27, the defense, anything along those lines. I'm just saying

07:21my case is that they're 17th in defense rather than eighth or seventh in defense, depending on

07:28what metric you use. Like I could easily see them being an above average defense for the second half

07:33of the season, but for the first half of the season, especially not knowing when Barmore is

07:38going to step back on the field, which I think in terms of the guys up front, he's the one guy you

07:43have to game plan for, right? Like Barmore was going to be that guy that I think was going to

07:46have, he was awesome, especially down the stretch of last season. The reason they gave him the

07:50extension, but up front on that, save the defensive line, pass rushers, et cetera.

07:55Who do you really have to game plan for? Like not right now, Keon White, maybe Keon White becomes

07:59that player, but we saw Uche last year without Judon, he wasn't very effective. That's why I

08:04just think like, and maybe Mayo and Covington can draw things up, but also remember this,

08:09I know that Mayo did a ton of the game planning last year, but you also are losing, like we can

08:14say whatever we want about Belichick from a GM standpoint, the offense clearly taking a step

08:20back year after year, they always had like pretty good game plans, I would say Callahan, right? And

08:26Steve Belichick is a good play caller, right? So I do think of, yeah, you have to factor those

08:30things into the equation as well. So I don't, I think it's, it's, I mean, it's here for a bold

08:35take, but if they finish 17th in defense, I'm not going to be surprised whatsoever. And I'm

08:39going to look back and we'll listen back to the spot. And I said, I told you so, I predicted this.

08:43Okay. Very good. I think solid points. I'm going to, I'm going to bring us up here now. Here's,

08:48here's my number one spiciest take on this list. The Patriots in late November are going to travel

08:54down to Miami. They're going to win the game. They're going to come back home with the rare

08:59win in Miami, something Brady and Belichick couldn't do more than half the time. Something

09:03that hasn't been done since 2019, uh, more recently Cam Newton and Mack Jones and now

09:08Jacoby Brissett, Billy Zappi somewhere in there, obviously, but here's the case by then the last

09:14weekend before Thanksgiving, Drake may should have had about three to five starts by now.

09:18Okay. He'll be accustomed to the offense, the in-season routine, uh, your teammate of the ring,

09:22Ryan Russo did a really good breakdown, but even the guys who sit or are scheduled to sit

09:26as first round rookie quarterbacks end up averaging 10 to 11 starts. Okay. By the time we get to

09:30November, this will be somewhere in the double digits, week 10, 11, 12, he'll have gotten multiple

09:34starts by then. Drake may is someone who can create on his own, not only throw off platform,

09:39but scramble and we'll be facing a defense that the Patriots have already prepared for in week

09:43five. As you mentioned, when you expect to it to be very cozy and maybe pitch a 10 in the pocket,

09:48cause he'll have so much time against this defense that doesn't have any pass rushers.

09:52Also speaking of Tua since he took over as a starting quarterback of Miami, the dolphins

09:58have averaged just 21 points per game against the Patriots in seven games. Now that include

10:04the Patriots only win during that time when Tua didn't even play Teddy Bridgewater was in,

10:09it was the last home game in 2022. The Patriots playoff hopes where we're still alive cause they

10:13won 23 to 21. But in these games, the Patriots have lost a lot of close contests to the dolphins.

10:19They've suffered multiple defensive scores. And I think if you just clean that up and get to 21

10:25points here against the team that you will have already seen once, you'll probably have a

10:29different quarterback for them to prepare for a better, more talented one. And not to mention

10:33again, as you said, the defensive staff is in place. Tyreek Hill had his worst game of the season

10:37last year against the Patriots. They'll be equipped better in late November than I think

10:41they've been in recent years. Again, it's Miami. It's not saying much, but the Patriots are going

10:45to go down to Miami and this will be, cause I've been predicting this for weeks, their win over a

10:51playoff team in 2024, just like every other team to pick number one in the draft has before them,

10:56who knows what they'll pick. But I think this is their upset divisional opponent late in the season,

11:02new quarterback, good defense. It all comes together in South Florida.

11:06I like it. And I will add to your point. We have no evidence that Tyreek Hill can play well

11:12against Christian Gonzalez. We have no evidence of it. Beautiful one game sample, but yes,

11:18we only have evidence of it was his least productive game of the season last year.

11:22And Gonzalez had that unbelievable interception too, where he came off his defender and

11:27picked off to us. So I liked that. I liked that going down to Miami and picking up a win.

11:32So for my next one, I'll piggyback off that because you had the Drake May or the Patriots

11:37winning that game. So I'll do a Drake May thing here. My, to go with the Dolphins theme too,

11:42my next ball take is Drake May will start against the Dolphins on October the 6th.

11:47So here's my rationale for this. Brissette is getting at least two games for sure. We know

11:53that, but you look at weeks three and four, the Jets and the Niners, both two teams that were top

11:5810 of the NFL last year, defensive EPA per play, the Jets were third. The Jets have one of the

12:04best defenses from a personnel perspective. And I would even say you could look at the San Francisco

12:08defense and say, I know they went all the way to the Superbowl, but they, they underachieved

12:12numbers wise, right? They replaced their defensive coordinator. So I think that Niners defense could

12:16be even better. You look at the Dolphins, they lost Wilkins. They were 15th in EPA per play.

12:22So they were like an average defense Texans after that 14th, they did add to now Hunter,

12:27which of course adds to their defense and they have a really good defensive coach and

12:30D'Amico Ryan's and the Jags 13. But I think that Dolphins opportunity at home, right?

12:36Is an opportunity where after Jacoby Brissette struggles, because I think he will in the first

12:41month of the season, some interesting things on Brissette when he was pressured in 2022,

12:46this unbelievable year with Alex Van Pelt, where they won games together, they won four games,

12:51but it was so good together, right? I mean, that's what Van Pelt has told us. They won

12:54some games together that year when he was pressured 26 of 40 qualifiers in completion

12:59percentage, when pressured his passer rating was 33rd. And when he was trailing in games in 2022,

13:07his passer rating was 76 Callahan. There were two quarterbacks that attempted a hundred passes when

13:12they were trailing that were worse than him. Can I guess Mike, Mike? Yeah, go ahead.

13:17Mike White is my first guest. Yeah. Who's your second? So 2022. So my first thought ran to Zach

13:26Wilson, but if Mike White was eating into those snaps, it's not going to be Zach Wilson. Give me

13:33Russell Wilson. Nope. Who was it? Kenny Pickett. Okay. So I mean, give him credit. He was better

13:43than Kenny Pickett and he was better than Mike White when he was trailing in those games.

13:47And of note, and I get this is at the collegiate level. Okay. But PFF tracks, big time throws,

13:54which basically means more throws that are down the field and into tighter windows.

13:58When he had more than two and a half seconds, Drake may last year had the most big time throws

14:02in the country. And guess who had the most big time throws in that particular category, more than

14:07two and a half seconds last year in the NFL. I'll give you a hint. He's one of the best quarterbacks

14:11in the league and it's not my homes. CJ Stroud. Close. Josh Allen. So, and May two years ago at

14:20the collegiate level ran for over, I don't know why I keep saying the collegiate level rather than

14:23at UNC. He ran for over. Adding a year to your age every time you do, you know, New York,

14:29UB Brown say in the painted area on NBA broadcast, like even if you've never heard of UB Brown,

14:34you go, that person is at least 80. And every time I hear him say it, okay, he's at least 81.

14:39Now he's probably 82 because it's just such a dusty, antiquated phrase. Anyway, go on.

14:43Yeah. Or the NFL, the red area, everyone says the red area, but he ran for 800 yards.

14:47So I think there's an argument and I, I totally understand why they're starting to go reset the

14:52offensive line issues and all this. And you want Drake may to be comfortable picking up pressures

14:56and all that. I totally understand why he's not starting the season, but I do think that if you

15:01just look at the skillset, Drake may actually gives you a better chance to compete in these

15:04games because he can make plays with his legs. He can extend plays. We saw the preseason game

15:10where he picked up the 17 yards, right? That's a play that quite frankly, Jacobi Rousset does

15:15not have the ability to make. So I'm going with week four after a really rough start to the season

15:18for the Patriots or excuse me, week five, that would be against the dolphins, get them out there

15:23for a home game. So that's my prediction. October 6th, Drake may Patriots fans will be happy.

15:28I'm going to get myself. I can't decide yet if it's the baby blue Jersey, the Navy Jersey,

15:34or the storm trooper white Jersey. But I think I may just have to go with the Carolina blue. I

15:38got to get one of those jerseys from a background here because I mean, UNC colors are awesome.

15:43Yeah. I, or if they ever, ever, ever bring the blood. So blues back, I mean,

15:48Oh, that would be sick.

15:49Which I, I don't know if I got to break the news two years ago and they brought back the

15:53silver pants on Monday. Now, or no, no, no. I said before that happened, they were available.

15:57Like they could actually use it. That was someone within the team told me, no, we can use them

16:02whatever we want. Weeks later, it happened on that Chicago Monday night game that no one wants

16:05to talk about for the pants. But I, I have to imagine if they wanted to make it happen, they

16:10could. So fingers crossed next year. Okay. I have three more bold predictions. I am going to take

16:16us back to negative town. But before we do that, I did an episode last month about how Patriots fans

16:21can survive year one of an NFL rebuild. And I'm embarrassed to say this, Brian, but I left one out

16:27It's play price picks. You can get through this season and win no matter how much the Patriots

16:32lose because it's America's number one, daily fantasy sports app. And it's just you against

16:35the numbers. I'm telling you, I played this. They've helped me out and rolled me. It is the

16:39simplest, easiest way to win money. As you watch sports, you just pick more or you pick less

16:45on two or more player stat projections. That's it. And see if you went, it could be pop Douglas

16:51for catches. And actually I have some numbers here and I'm going to do picks on Friday. So you

16:54can keep up with me every single week of the season. I want to do this with you. The metric

16:58man right now, here are some numbers available for Patriots fans or anyone else who wants to

17:02play price picks looking ahead to Sunday's game against Cincinnati, pop Douglas 36 and a half

17:09receiving arch. Brian, would you take more or less? I'm taking more, man. He's going to get

17:13targeted like crazy and they're going to be losing at some point, right? Something similar on Friday.

17:18Okay. Jalen Polk, 28 and a half receiving yards against Cincinnati, more or less.

17:25I'm going to go less. Actually, no, let me take that back. I'm going to go more.

17:29Okay. Two more. Last one. Jacoby Brissett, 32 and a half pass attempts, more or less.

17:37I'm going to say more because they're losing the game. There you go. That's it. It's that simple.

17:41You just pick more or less with price picks and then watch the winnings rolls. And so when you

17:46do this, you can win up to a hundred times your money. If you have as few as four correct picks

17:51and price picks is the only real money daily fantasy platform that gets you this injury

17:57insurance. So if someone gets hurt, pop Douglas, Jalen Polk, or Jacoby Brissett, and they're in

18:02your lineup, your lineup is still intact, even if they don't come back for the second half.

18:05So download the price picks app today and use code CLNS and get 50 bucks instantly. When you deposit

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18:19instantly. When you play $5, you don't even need to win to get the $50 bonus. It's guaranteed

18:24price picks run your game. All right, there it is. Number two, I promise negative town.

18:31You ran through the schedule. I don't want to belabor this point. You and I talked about it

18:35on your pod and you did this down. I think the Patriots are the last winless team in the NFL.

18:39And that means we get a couple easy teams off the board. The Vikings and Giants who are also

18:44in this category play each other week one. So two of the other 10 worst teams in the league,

18:49one of those is going to have a win. The Panthers get the Saints. I screwed this up in your pod now,

18:53I'm realizing. Then they get the Chargers. Then they get the Raiders in weeks one through three.

18:58So the Raiders or the Panthers is going to have a win within weeks one through three.

19:03And then later the Panthers get Washington and Denver before Halloween. Meanwhile,

19:07the Patriots, you know, at Cincinnati, home Seattle, at the Jets, at the Niners,

19:12home Dolphins, home Texans, a little bit of a breather against Jacksonville. Oh,

19:16but you need to fly five and a half hours to London and then come back and play the Jets again.

19:20I think they're at least 0-6 to start the year. I don't think that's particularly bold,

19:25but when you put it in the context of the last winless team standing in the league,

19:30and I maybe goes to 0-7, including that Jaguars game, and then 0-8 maybe with the Jets, I just

19:37wherever it lands, they'll be the last winless team in the league.

19:41You make a really good case there. And I really do think that if you look at the first six weeks

19:46of the season, their best chance to win a game is this Sunday against Cincinnati, right? Because

19:52weird things always happen in week one. Cincinnati's defense was not good last season.

19:56And you also look at the fact that who the heck knows what's going to happen with this Jamar

19:59Chase situation. He's still, as we're recording right now, Callahan, he hasn't signed a contract

20:05and who knows how much playing time he's going to get, even if he is on the field on Sunday.

20:09Not to mention Joe Burrow is coming off an injury situation and historically,

20:13Cincinnati starts slow. So if you don't beat Cincinnati in week one, that slate,

20:19I ran through the slate that they have to play. It's going to be awfully difficult for them not

20:23to be the last winless team. And then you really get into negative town when that comes, right?

20:28When it's like, wait, hold on. And you already had the Miami game that they're winning, but it's like,

20:33hey, are they going to win a game this year? Like when you start knowing six and I'm not,

20:38I'm not going there. There are other folks who will, and I'll, I'll backtrack and put my stamp

20:43on this firmly. Uh, the other stuff is firm too, but just in a way to remind everyone,

20:48when you are playing prize picks or you're doing a pool or a survivor pool, your fantasy team,

20:52or this and that, whatever, we know nothing. This is the NFL where you watch to be surprised,

20:58to be thrilled, but we all go in at the start of every September.

21:01We know we're so certain this seductors that is certainty about our pro sports. And we get

21:06smacked across the face and reminded, no, you know, nothing. And this is what it's going to

21:10be. And it's a lot of fun. Um, but the Patriots very well could win in Cincinnati. I just think

21:14on balance right now, the schedule where the offense is at. Yeah. Uh, this is it. I'm going

21:18to go back to back because that was quick. And I, I don't, I want to, we're going to U-turn

21:22out of negative town and I have a surprise poll selection for you. Uh, but first I'll let you

21:28guess. And the answer is not Mike white. Who do you think I'm about to nominate to their first

21:32pro bowl from this Patriots roster? Has peppers made a pro bowl. Great guess. Brian Barrett. Yes.

21:41Brian, right. Jabril peppers has never made a pro bowl this year that is changing. And let's start

21:49here. Last year in 15 games, this guy had 78 tackles, two interceptions, eight pass breakups,

21:53a forced fumble in a sack. He is in his physical prime. This is a dude who's always been jacked.

21:58His game is now checked as well. He's in the right system. He's got extension. He's a newly

22:02minted captain. If you extrapolate those numbers out for an extra two games, he just stays healthy

22:07this year. You were talking upwards of 90 tackles, perhaps three or four interceptions and over 10

22:12pass breakups with the forced fumble. Now let's do the ultimate argument here. Take all the real

22:17numbers out of my hands. Let's give you a fake number. 85 Brian, that is his Madden writing.

22:24And when you look at all of the safeties ranked ahead of him that are just in the AFC,

22:28because if the real peppers makes the pro bowl, it will be as a member of the AFC.

22:32There are only five safeties rated higher than 85 in the game right now. And Durbin James is

22:36on this list. Someone who I don't think has lived up to his reputation lately. As you would think

22:41the other ones are Kyle Hamilton, Mika Fitzpatrick and Javon Holland. That's it.

22:47Real ones. No real Madden playing ball, watching tape, studying real ones. No,

22:53that your bro peppers is in his prime. So this is also gets a bump from name recognition.

22:57Everyone's known to bro. Since he was the number one recruit in the country,

23:00goes to Michigan first round pick. He's healthy. He's productive. He's going to

23:04play on a good defense. And I think he's going to make his first pro bowl as a sack making

23:10ball, intercepting tackle making and then breaking on his returns.

23:14Safety. The best to drill pepper is going to be a pro bowler at the end of the season.

23:18I like it. He's fun to watch too. By the way, you mentioned Kyle Hamilton.

23:21If he wasn't a safety, that would be a good pick for defensive player of the year because that

23:25Ravens defense is so good and he's the best player on that defense. But I like it. I love

23:30peppers. I mean, you look at all the stuff from last year, he was tremendous and he was better

23:34than Duggar. And I know Duggar last year had sort of a different role than he did the previous

23:40seasons, right? Where Jabril peppers got to do a lot of the different types of stuff where he got

23:44to play more of the run game where Duggar had to be back a little bit more and try to play more in

23:49the past game. But I love peppers as a player. I thought that was a tremendous pickup when they

23:53signed him. I didn't know what to expect, but I thought he was awesome for the Patriots last year.

23:57And they deserve credit for that too. I just, I hope he sticks around. Like, I mean, could that

24:01be a trade candidate if things go really south for the Patriots? No, no, no. He'll stay here.

24:05And I think too, you know, he's got the sign off from the coaching staff, right? That he's a

24:10captain and not in a way that they're rigging the vote or anything, though I'm sure that's happened

24:14or still happens in the NFL. It's just to say that like everyone in the building, front office,

24:18coaching staff and locker room is behind. So that's a dude who's, you know, again, 28,

24:23got a few good years left in a good way, suited for the system. He's going to carry the flag,

24:28say all the right things, play hard for Mayo, do all those. And so I don't think they're going to

24:32ship him out. And this is not to be clear because he came on the show last week and admitted to

24:37being a big softy and a romantic. This is just because my guy is making the pro bowl. Yeah.

24:42And it's like their best position group, isn't it? With Tugger and like you would like somewhere

24:47else to be your best position group, but it's a good position group. Feel good about that group.

24:51It's going to be fine. All right. You get to go back to back. This, this is another positive.

24:55Okay. Romandre gets back to be an elite back because he was in 2022. He wasn't in 2023,

25:01but I think we're starting to see that right prior to the game. He got injured three straight,

25:05really good games, 50 carries for 273. So five and a half yards per pop. You'll take that.

25:11That's an elite performance, but on the season, I was shocked by this number last year. He was

25:17minus 18 yards over expectation. That's a next gen stat. So that's sort of, yeah, that's yes.

25:23He was worse. That's kind of, yeah. Like he was way out 18 yards under expectation because

25:29you go back to 2022, he's 118 yards over expectation, the ninth best mark in the

25:35entire NFL. So he went from being one of the best players in that category to well below average in

25:41that category. And furthermore in 2022, he was one of only six running backs that was over 800 yards

25:48in terms of yards after contact. He was sixth right behind Saquon Barkley. And if you just do

25:53the yards after contact per attempt 3.81, which was the third highest mark in the NFL. So he went

26:01from legitimately being one of the best running backs in the league from a per carry standpoint,

26:06in terms of like he was creating this stuff, right? It wasn't because of his offensive line.

26:11It was because of the running back himself to a guy that was well below average. So I got to think

26:16there was something going. Remember last year and correct me if I'm wrong in this calendar,

26:19but there was almost like this NBA sense of like load management after he wore down in 2022,

26:25where he wasn't doing a lot in training camp. He even said this year that he lost some weight.

26:30So I just, and I know like, it's going to be a similar situation as it pertains to the line's

26:35not going to be good, but we've seen him when the line hasn't been opening up the biggest holes for

26:39him where he's been able to create for himself. So I have to believe, especially considering his

26:44age, it's not like he's old, right? He's still a relatively young back and he just

26:48got the contract extension. I think he gets back to being a really, really good

26:53back and a really effective player. And they're going to want to run the football a ton with

26:57Romandre considering Van Pelt's background. I'm not comparing him to Nick Chubb, but

27:01they gave the ball to Nick Chubb a ton. You go back to two years ago, same yards per carry as

27:06Chubb, but Chubb had more than 90 carries more than him. I think Romandre is going to have a

27:10huge season for the Patriots. Even if it doesn't result in a lot of wins, I think Romandre is going

27:14to be back to what we saw in 2022. Yeah. And I think a couple of things here too,

27:19right? Like we, we bemoan the offensive line for good reason. Most of those concerns though,

27:24are related to pass protection. It's a whole different story with run block. And I'm not

27:28saying they're even above average run blocking line, but you have to separate the two. And it's

27:32like, Oh, the offensive line thinks, Oh my God, but Darian love this, that whatever you want to

27:35say, like they ran the ball pretty well in preseason. They did an okay job enjoying practice

27:41against the Eagles. The other part is the schematic change to a Van Pelt offense, which we expect,

27:46and we'll see how this changes to more of an outside zone scheme. And they'll still mix and

27:50do run a little power encounter here and there. It's going to help Stevenson. This is his favorite

27:55scheme to run through and run behind and execute. So it's one cut and go. That's good for him. It's

27:59good for Gibson. You need the players still to block that, but it's something he did in Oklahoma.

28:04He's been talking about it since, I think I asked him in the spring and everyone's like,

28:08Oh, you like, you like the outside zone? He's like, yeah, yes, they'll do still do. So I like

28:13the case. I think the game, uh, there's a better way to put this, but you know what I'm talking

28:18about? The circumstances, the game setting is really going to dictate though, how much they

28:21can hand the ball off. Cause you're behind by 10 true in the second quarter, you know,

28:26and they're splitting carries. Uh, it's just going to be, it's going to be hard to keep

28:30handing the ball off them. Yeah, that's fair. In terms of like the raw yards, it may not be

28:35what we expect, but I think like on a per carry basis, he's still going to be a really effective

28:40running back. And I like Ramond Drey a lot. So I hope that he bounces back this year after what

28:44we saw last year. All right. So my last bold take, and this just came to me at about, I'd say

28:51midnight last night. Cause we know how talking head sports talk radio. We know how this works.

28:59Bill O'Brien is going to be a storyline. So the reason I say that is BC last night,

29:06as we're recording on Tuesday on Monday night, just beat Florida state. Now they have a good

29:11game or a tough game at a couple of weeks against an SEC opponent in Missouri, but they ran for 260

29:16yards. They got a bunch of guys off that offensive line that looked like they're big time NFL

29:20prospects. And you look at Bill O'Brien, like he was 52 and 48 as an NFL head coach. And you look

29:27at Deshaun Watson year two, second and passer rating seventh and completion percentage.

29:33And he wasn't even considered for the job. Right. I mean, and remember he wasn't even going to be

29:38the offensive coordinator for the Patriots. He took the job at Ohio state, right? Like Mayo

29:42was going to be the head coach of this team. Right. I mean, yeah, it's not as cut and dry

29:48there like Bill O'Brien, I think was open in a way to staying. And I don't want any of this

29:54aggregated because I'm not speaking definitively. Like this is, I think from what I recall at the

29:58time, he did take the Ohio state job quickly. Right. And then pivoted and went back to BC,

30:02but I think was more of a solid name to consider or an option if he wanted to stay with the

30:11organization and work under Gerard Mayo, who I know some people did not feel very good about the

30:15way Mayo assumed power after Bill Belichick. We know Bill O'Brien is a Belichick loyalist

30:19was maybe more of a consideration than Josh McDaniels, but I don't know if that necessarily

30:23means he was a legitimate candidate. So I'm just, it's, it's gray and it didn't happen,

30:29but I I'm interested by this take, because obviously we're going to be talking about

30:32Belichick, but you were saying there's another bill that's going to live with us. Maybe not

30:35casting as large of a shadow, but he's down the street in a way that Belichick is not over the

30:40season. Well, that's yes. That's my point. So I'm not saying that. And I, I wasn't making this case.

30:45Like when the job opened up that Bill O'Brien should be the head coach of the Patriots. I'm

30:49not saying that. And I don't think a lot of people thought that at the time, the reason I'm

30:53bringing this up is it's like, if BC is back to being, and look, I'm doing this off one game,

30:58but if BC ends up being at least a competitive football team for the majority of the season,

31:03and they look like, Hey, Bill, Bill O'Brien is Boston college back on track.

31:07And we start to think about it. We're like, wait, he was on the Patriots coaching staff,

31:11right? And if the Patriots have the season that we expect, then you start to think about,

31:15I, when he was with the Texans, it wasn't his coaching that was bad, right? It was his GMing.

31:20Like he traded DeAndre Hopkins away. And it's like, well, what are you doing for a running back

31:24in like a third round draft pick? Like those decisions made no sense. But the fact that

31:29he's not coaching Georgia tech, he's not coaching like Washington state. He's literally going to be

31:34coaching at Chestnut hill. And we can look at it and say, Whoa, Bill O'Brien's having this

31:38outstanding season. He was on the coaching staff. He developed a young quarterback in the NFL before.

31:44So just because of sort of the proximity that he's going to have to the Patriots,

31:48I do think that this is going to be a talking point that people are going to bring up that I

31:54had before last night. I had no expectations though. That was going to be the case. They

31:58were 16 and a half point dogs and they beat and look, this Florida state team looks like

32:03they're completely fraudulent. Right. But you get my point. That's a huge note. Yes.

32:07Yeah. I mean, they lost to Florida state, lost to Georgia tech too, in the

32:11week zero game. But man, I like that was in, look, even a Florida state's not what they used

32:17to be. Even last year where they had a chance to make it to the playoff prior to the injury

32:21to the quarterback. But if Bill O'Brien gets that thing back on track, I do think that it's going to

32:26be just an interesting thing to monitor. And they got a quarterback that in Castellanos that could

32:30run the ball. I think they're going to be a pretty competitive football team. Like they took it to

32:36Florida state. They were mauling them from an offensive line perspective.

32:40So this couple of things on this, just to put the Florida state part to bed, disastrous defensive

32:46performance. Like that is a bad team. Never belonged in the top 10. Forget the DJU part

32:51that everyone's calling for him to be benched. He's on his third college team. He's never been

32:54that good. All true. BC was spamming the same past concept. And Dan Mullin said this at halftime mesh,

33:00which is good against man and zone. And you saw it a lot on those kind of wheel routes to the

33:05running backs. Mesh rail is what it's called when you use that particular route over and over and

33:09over again. And they could not for the life of them get any sort of switch man coverage or passing

33:14it off or reading of the same route combinations. So that defense stinks. The second part where I

33:19think where what you're talking about and that Bill O'Brien will live with us this season and

33:22kind of be in the ether where this will be most felt is behind closed doors. I think if you're

33:27right, because I think there's a really interesting take in that VC, if the Patriots continue to be

33:32this bad, there's a good tweet by Zach Cox last night will be BC will be more relevant than they've

33:38been maybe in 15, 20 years. If the Patriots plays, we expect them to in BC continues to ascend.

33:43And to your point, that attention stolen from the Patriots, given to someone who could have

33:47been in the building to Bill O'Brien will hurt most behind closed doors with the crafts who go,

33:53we can't fill our stadium. BC may or may not be by this point selling out. And the guy at the helm

33:58of someone we were close with that we wanted to bring back and was here and let go out the door.

34:04Now, how does that manifest itself? Does it create any kind of rancor with the other

34:08coaches or people who replaced him? Who knows? This is all contingent on stuff that has not

34:11happened yet, but I like where this is going because we're all going to be listening to

34:15Belichick on Monday with McAfee, Fridays with Peyton Manning and underdog fantasy

34:18somewhere in between. Now, Jim Gray's hanging out somewhere. I don't know,

34:21but Bill O'Brien is right down the street and he is off to a scorching hot start, even if FSU sucks.

34:27Well, in two small followups that the first one is when they had the Matt Ryan year where at one

34:33point they were up to number two in the country. That was 2007 and the Patriots were going undefeated

34:39that year. Right. So even the year that they were having and I can't remember, they lost a Thursday

34:44night game where I think if they won that game, they were going to have a real chance to like

34:48make it. It could have been UCF or something, or maybe UCF was number two and they beat them.

34:52But I just remember they lost a game at the end of the season where they legitimately had a chance.

34:56Remember that 07 year was so weird where LSU won the title and this is before the,

35:00even the 14 playoff LSU won the title when they had two losses. It was just a weird year.

35:05Even like West Virginia, they ended up losing to, when they had Pat White, they lost to LaShawn

35:10McCoy at the end of the season. So it was like, who is going to get into the national championship

35:15and ended up being LSU beat Ohio state. But my point with that is this year, the Patriots are

35:19not going undefeated and Tom Brady's not the quarterback and they don't have Randy Moss and

35:24the greatest offense at that time that we had ever seen. This is going to be an irrelevant

35:27Patriots team from a national perspective. So BC should get some attention there.

35:32And to your point about the crafts, they wanted him back to be the OC last year,

35:36right? Like that, that was their choice too, right? Not just Belichick's choice.

35:41Uh, yes, I think they were happy to have that. I know O'Brien has a good relationship with

35:46the crafts. And I think also if you're male, part of the consideration of like,

35:49who's on your list, who do you want back? Does Bill O'Brien even want to be back?

35:52All kinds of TBD. And I might be missing a report. This could have been documented

35:56at the time in a number of places, but it's a long way since January. We've been

36:00basically have not stopped since is to say, you don't want to worry about the internal politics

36:06in a way that even Belichick, according to Seth Wickersham's book, it's better to be feared,

36:10was with O'Brien and kind of sidling up to ownership. So even if you're Gerard Mayo,

36:16anointed head coach a year before you're actually hired and played for the crafts and now coach for

36:20them and feel secure, you just don't want anything undermining you because you know,

36:24you're going to grow and have some wobbly moments. Belichick didn't want that. And who knows that

36:27Bill O'Brien actually would have politicked in a way, but like, that's something else to consider

36:32here. So I think the relationship part with ownership is good. There's just a lot of

36:37stuff that I don't think has been fully fleshed out, but you get little hints or

36:39pockets or whispers or rumblings of, um, that kind of all went into that before Bill O'Brien

36:46left. And now he's back. And think about it from this perspective. If

36:53Bill O'Brien was the offensive coordinator, what would his title have been? Because Van Pelt's

36:57the head coach of the offense. Would he been, would he have been the senior head coach of the

37:01offense? Cause he used to be a coach. Like you'd have to give me an even better title,

37:07not just head coach of the offense. One of those like strange titles you hear at Stanford or

37:11Michigan where the big donor family pays to be like the Wilson family offensive coordinator at

37:17the University of Michigan. It'd have been like the Matt Patricia Memorial offensive coordinator

37:21of the New England Patriots. Uh, Patricia. Yeah. Uh, anyway, good stuff. All right. I have one

37:27more before that. I know you are at home on Sundays cause you have to watch Patriots. You

37:31have to watch other stuff. You have to record a podcast, but the only thing better than doing

37:35what Brian does. I mean, you would probably at home do as well, eight hours on the couch,

37:38watching the NFL is to go to a game. And you know, I've been after you come on down to Gillette,

37:43come in, soak it in because there's no better place on Sundays to be than an NFL stadium.

37:48And you can go there with game time. I've been to almost every single Patriots game the last

37:51seven years. True story. Before most games, I take a walk around the concourse. I like to feel

37:57the crowd. I like to sense the energy, smell the food, the vibes. There's nothing like a

38:01live atmosphere. So right now I'm looking at the Patriots home opener against Seattle.

38:05Miami's coming in early October. So is Houston, the Jets right before Halloween.

38:09And I've already told you the Patriots are going to beat a playoff team this year. So you should

38:12be there. Go to game time with the lowest price guarantee where they can credit you 110%

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38:49Terms do apply. Again, just create an account and download the game time app and use code CLNS

38:55for $20 off. Download game time today. What time is it? It's game time. All right, my last one.

39:02There's going to be a coaching change before the season's over. And I don't mean this in a,

39:07oh, Gerard Mayo's fired. I mean, things are going to get real stressful in Foxborough,

39:13and there's going to be a blame game. There's going to be some kind of strife. And we have

39:16to remember this offensive staff is massive. So I don't even think it'll be a coordinator,

39:21but I'm looking at three offensive line coaches right now for a group that's going to struggle.

39:25I'm going to look at Tyler Hughes, the receiver's coach, one of the last higher assistants on the

39:29staff who's got a backup available in Taekwon Underwood if they want to make a change. There's

39:33a lot riding on Pop Douglas and Jalen Polk and Jayvon Baker. Or Ben McAdoo might just leave

39:41for another job. If he goes, we're two and 14, and one of my buddies just got fired,

39:45and I'm already going to go anyway. I'll just skip the finale or go to college or wherever it

39:49might be. There's just a lot that's going to happen that we anticipate to be bad. And that

39:53drags down a whole team and a locker room and a staff. And even Gerard Mayo said, I don't know

39:58if it was introductory press conference or shortly thereafter, a head coach's first staff typically

40:03does not look a whole like his staff's in the coming years. So again, this is not saying he's

40:07going anywhere or even ABP, but because of the size of the staff and the lack of familiarity

40:12and the available backups, in case they do suddenly want to part with, hell, throw T.C.

40:16McCartney in there as the quarterback's coach. And we're not rooting for any of this, but I think at

40:20some point before the season is over, we're going to be asking Gerard Mayo, what made this decision

40:25to let so-and-so walk or fire them in the best interest of the team? Because that amount of

40:30losing and stress is going to trigger someone to go, we got to change things up. And it's not going

40:35to be the players or any of the rookies who go. And I don't think the highest coaches, but someone

40:39down below them who will be a buffer to your two hot seat for Mayo. Well, he's not going to go year

40:45two, but ABP might. And I think this will be the first step towards that if we get there even next

40:49season. Yeah, it's a fair point, especially considering the wind total right now is at four

40:55and a half. And if you finish under that, you would expect that the, which I do, by the way,

40:58if the offense is really bad, then maybe you're saying, Hey, we're still going to keep Alex Van

41:03Pelt as our offensive coordinator. But Hey, if we can go back to this whole Shanahan McVay coaching

41:09tree and somebody becomes available, say from another team that is an offensive coordinator

41:15in name only, right. Where they're not actually calling the plays. Maybe that's something they

41:19entertain bringing over as sort of like the, and I know it's difficult in terms of the NFL language,

41:24but maybe there's some way that they can bring in somebody else to bring just more elements to the

41:28offense, especially considering we know like the, the Shanahan McVay offense, it works all over the

41:34NFL. So you would think that maybe you can get somebody in here with that sort of pedigree and

41:38that type of background to help out with the offense in some way, shape or form.

41:42But if you finish with two wins or three wins, there's going to be some changes on

41:46the coaching staff. Even if it's not like, as you said, not something as dramatic as a coordinator

41:51or the head coach, ordinarily when that happens, there's big changes that happen with the

41:55organization. Yeah. And I'll say too, you know, the Patriots lost coaches last year because

42:01assistants didn't know where this was going. Like the receivers coach, Ross Douglas went to Syracuse.

42:05Uh, you lost a defense. Well, that's it in fairness. I mean, that's a great choice. I mean,

42:09they just beat Ohio this weekend. Yeah. Oh, oh, congrats. I can't wait for the parade

42:14down this gray ass Syracuse, whatever their main drag is. Kyle McCord, Ohio state quarterback,

42:20ripping it up 364 yards. That is enough on this Yukon podcast about Syracuse,

42:25but they also lost. Um, I want to say it'd be Angela Bentley and I might be butchering the name.

42:28He was a QC on defense left before the season was over. Everyone knew where this was going.

42:33And so offensively, you're going to play the blame game. And I mentioned three offensive

42:36line coaches. Let me clear that up. Scott Peters is the offensive line coach. Robert Kugler is his

42:41assistant. Michael McCarthy is an offensive assistant, uh, who was at Brown mostly the

42:46last four or five years. He's also working with the offensive line has some NFL experience,

42:50but that's what I mean by three offensive line coaches, just areas where there's a lot going on.

42:54Maybe McCarthy's done or it's not working out because back to college, who knows?

42:58I just think there will be changed before we have an end to season press conference.

43:02All right. Uh, anything else? Did you have any outside looking in stuff you left in the cutting

43:06room floor too spicy, not spicy enough that you were thinking about before firing off those four

43:10bowl predictions? Yeah. Well, one thing, and I mentioned this briefly on my pod to you, but one

43:16thing that I was going to put in here, but I didn't know if it would have qualified as bold

43:20is that Kendrick Bourne would be traded just because they're going to want to see what they

43:25have in the young guys. Like Douglas is obviously going to be a feature part of this offense in the

43:29slot. And then you spent a second round pick on Jalen Pope. Like you want to get him a lot

43:34of opportunities. And they, I know they have Taekwon Thornton out there as sort of the deep

43:39threat. Like it's not like Kendrick Bourne is not that type of player. And I think Kendrick

43:43Bourne's on a really good contract, still young enough where if there's a contender that needs

43:48sort of a third receiver to add to their group, Kendrick Bourne's a really good player. I mean,

43:53we saw in 2021, the guy had 800 yards and it was not like he was targeted a ton. I mean, you go

43:59back to last season, he had a bunch of big games prior to the entry. Like I think if Kendrick

44:04Bourne plays to match that total, because if I, if I hear you say that it's like, okay, that was

44:08three years ago. Well, he would have gotten there had he stayed healthy. And this is not a guy who's

44:12been dinged up over the course of his career, been injury prone. Like it's just, he didn't get

44:17there because he tore his ACL. Well, and the reason for that too, is like 2022, it wasn't his

44:22fault. He wasn't productive. He was in Patricia's doghouse. Right. It made no sense. Like they,

44:27they did, they were, they were too punitive. He missed the start of a team meeting for a

44:32preseason and had a bad training camp and eventually got out of it, but like was still

44:36more productive than Taekwon Thornton who had more snaps in him that year. So yeah,

44:40he earned part of it. No question about it. But the coaching staff was wagging their finger well

44:44past it should have been. Okay. Time to get you in. You need to play. You're one of our best

44:48receivers. Yeah. Well, remember they put him in and he had that huge game. I think he had over

44:51100 yards when they, when they finally like, oh, we got to play the Kendrick Bourne guy because

44:55somebody else is dealing with an injury. And then last year, I think if he plays the whole season,

45:01he's not a member of the Patriots. I think somebody offers him obviously more money than

45:05he's making and he goes to a better team that maybe is a contender. So I think that just because

45:11of the situation, like if you were a contending team, there'd be no reason to trade Kendrick

45:16Bourne because it's a solid player. And I think when he comes back, he's going to be

45:19a contributor. But I just think based on the fact that you have all these young receivers on the

45:23team that you're going to want to get, and it makes sense. Like it behooves the Patriots to

45:27get a lot of reps with these young guys, because obviously they're going to have a young quarterback

45:31and they want to see what they have going forward into next year's draft. Oh, and one

45:35other thing I thought that we would be talking about, like, what would be, what is the offer

45:41going to be like for the number one pick? Because if the Patriots end up with the worst record,

45:45and if a team really wants a quarterback there, like depending on how, it's, it's kind of weird,

45:50like the quarterback situation at the college level, see, I said college this time is up in

45:54the air, like who's going to be the number one pick, right? Like we'll see the, like if Cam Ward

45:59has a big year, does he get into the discussion, as I mentioned earlier, but Quinn Ewers is there,

46:04Shador Sanders is there, we'll see who the number one pick is like in the draft. But if it, like,

46:09if somebody becomes the clear cut number one, and remember, like, it doesn't always happen where we

46:14know before the season, and I'm not saying anybody's going to be this player. But remember,

46:17in 2019, nobody thought Joe Burrow was going to be the number one pick. And then he had this crazy

46:23season where he led LSU to a national championship, and he became that number one pick. So if

46:27something happens along those lines, you can be like... Or Jaden Daniels last year, like that was

46:31supposed to be Caleb Williams and those boys, or Caleb Williams and Drake May and the boys,

46:35and thankfully for the Patriots, it got to be a three quarterback, maybe four if you include

46:38JJ McCarthy or Onyx or whomever, draft, like that was a huge help to them. That was, that was

46:43franchise changing. Yeah, so they could be looking at, we could be talking about by the end of the

46:47season, hey man, the Patriots get a haul for this number one pick, or they could stay at number one

46:52and pick whoever they think is the best player. And I know there's like, whoever it is, whether

46:57it's Travis Hunter or somebody else, right? Whether it's the best lineman, the best, whoever

47:01it is, the best defensive player, whoever, like, I think that, and I know this like sounds bad to

47:06say, but it really does help the Patriots to have the worst record this year, because then you're

47:11in complete control of the draft. Oh, it's true. Brian Barrett, starting on a high note, the

47:17defense is not gonna be that good. Ending on a high note, please root for them to lose. You can

47:21listen to him, the Off the Bike podcast. He's right, he's not wrong. And you were bold today,

47:26which is what we asked of you, and I really appreciate it. I love listening. Find him at

47:30the Ringer again, the Off the Bike podcast. I'm glad we got to do the home and home, and we'll

47:34check in sometime, I think later on in the season. But if you do end up coming to Gillette, I know

47:39that was a game time read, and game time has been great to us, and I've used them to go to

47:43Sox games and other places. But if you, if you come on down to Gillette one of these days,

47:47let me know, and we'll hook you up, all right? Will do, Callan.

8 BOLD Patriots Predictions for 2024 season | Pats Interference

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