IHSG Berpeluang Lanjutkan Penguatan?
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (21/08/2024) dengan Tema IHSG Berpeluang Lanjutkan Penguatan?".
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00:00INDONESIA'S MOST VALUABLE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
00:04This morning, I'm here to review the Indeksarga Samgabungan...
00:08...and Pasar Modal, where IHSG has set the highest record.
00:14And our guests today are Mr. Hendra Wardana...
00:18...founder of Republik Investor.
00:21Good morning, Mr. Hendra.
00:23Good morning, Mrs. Frissa and all the investors.
00:27Thank you for joining us this morning.
00:30Let's get straight to the Indeksarga Samgabungan.
00:32This is a new record with a transaction value of 19 trillion rupiah.
00:37What are your concerns about the Indeksarga Samgabungan...
00:41...which has always recorded an all-time high?
00:44Okay, Mrs. Frissa and all the investors.
00:47If we look at the movement so far, we can say it's an all-time high.
00:51It's at the level of 7,533 or 0.90%.
00:56IHSG's transaction is fantastic, as Mrs. Frissa said.
01:01It's up to 19 trillion rupiah.
01:03But if we look at the data from yesterday...
01:06...we can see that there are transactions that are negotiated...
01:10...by FAS, which is Fajat Surya Wisesa...
01:14...with a transaction value of 7.5 trillion rupiah.
01:18So, the regular market transaction is only around 12.5 trillion rupiah.
01:23But what's interesting about IHSG is that...
01:28...their supporters are mainly banks...
01:32...with a very large market cap.
01:36This is proven by the BBC.
01:38Yesterday, it reached an all-time high.
01:41And if we look at Asing...
01:44...they recorded a net buy in banks like BRI.
01:47Asing recorded a net buy of 681 billion rupiah.
01:51Bank Mandiri recorded a net buy of 322 billion rupiah.
01:55BBCM recorded a net buy of 262 billion rupiah.
01:59This is an indication that Asing is still optimistic about IHSG's future.
02:05They're still optimistic about the future of IHSG.
02:09So, from this all-time high, there's still room for improvement.
02:16What's the target, sir?
02:19That's right, Mr. Frissa. The target for IHSG's movement until the end of the year...
02:24...was actually at 7,800.
02:26But with the speed of IHSG now reaching the level of 7,533...
02:35...it's possible that this week it will reach 7,600.
02:40But it's also possible that today IHSG will take a profit...
02:44...because we saw that the regional Asian market data is also weakening.
02:48So, there will be a healthy correction for IHSG's increase in power, Mr. Frissa.
02:55How about the sentiment of the movement of rupiah, which is also getting stronger?
03:00How far is it going to be a positive trigger for the capital market?
03:03Okay, if we look at rupiah, the power of rupiah...
03:08...will be proportional to the power of IHSG itself.
03:13If we look at rupiah, it's at the level of 15,400.
03:18This is very positive for the power of IHSG itself.
03:24If we look at why rupiah is getting stronger...
03:28...it's because of the investors' euphoria...
03:30...regarding the cut rate of the Fed...
03:32...which is likely to be done in September...
03:36...in line with the inflationary data that America has begun to control...
03:41...and there will be optimism that the Fed will increase its relationship...
03:45...so that it will be responded positively by investors.
03:47If we look at the power of IHSG itself...
03:52...it's very proportional to the power of rupiah.
03:57Okay. This Friday, starting from Thursday...
04:00...at the Jackson Hall, Yoming...
04:02...there will be a meeting of the Central Banks, including the United States.
04:05On the second day, on Friday, it was announced...
04:09...that General Powell, the head of the Central Bank of the United States...
04:12...will announce a date that can reduce the chances of September...
04:17...of the U.S. to fall or not.
04:20Mr. Hendra, are you optimistic...
04:25...that the Fed in September will reduce at least 25 basis points?
04:29Yes, it's related to the inflation, which has been controlled below 3 percent...
04:32...and the non-fine peril has also been controlled, which is okay.
04:36But the point is, again, the data is related to other aspects...
04:42...but if you say you're optimistic or not...
04:45...the probability is around 60 percent.
04:48I'm sure that in September, there will be a decrease of 25 basis points.
04:54But at least if it doesn't happen in September...
04:57...at least at the end of the year, there will be a decrease in interest rates.
05:01If the Fed reduces interest rates...
05:03...automatically, the value of rupiah will be stronger...
05:06...and the tendency of the Bank of Indonesia will also reduce interest rates.
05:11And what's the effect?
05:12The effect is that the IASG will again strengthen or to the highest level...
05:16...and other parties will also get optimism from the interest rates.
05:20Okay, so if the hope of the release of the Fed continues...
05:25...the answer is yes, if not in September...
05:27...maybe it will shift to December.
05:30And it will have a positive impact on the capital market and the value of rupiah exchanges.
05:35Today, there will be an announcement from the Bank of Indonesia...
05:39...regarding several things, including interest rates.
05:43What do you think the potential will be?
05:45Will it still be the same or what will it be like?
05:49My prediction is that even though the value of rupiah exchanges...
05:52...the Bank of Indonesia will not hesitate to reduce interest rates...
05:57...before the Fed reduces interest rates.
06:00So my prediction is that in the afternoon or in the afternoon...
06:03...the Bank of Indonesia will continue to maintain interest rates...
06:06...while looking at the steps of the Fed in September.
06:10Because in my opinion, if we go to the Central Bank of the United States...
06:14...when the Fed reduces interest rates...
06:16...maybe we can immediately reduce interest rates.
06:19But it's not impossible either.
06:23Our central bank, the Bank of Indonesia, in this case...
06:27...reduces interest rates first.
06:29Then we look at the value of rupiah exchanges, which has always been strengthened.
06:34But I see a small chance for the Bank of Indonesia...
06:36...to reduce its interest rates in the afternoon or in the afternoon.
06:39So there is a possibility that it will still be the same as the previous month.
06:43Okay, you have mentioned that BBRI, Bank Mandiri, BBCA...
06:48...are some of the Astra, BBNI...
06:52...which are the target of foreign investors...
06:56...as long as the IHSG reaches a new highest record.
07:00How about LQ45? There is Artoma, Picalbe Farma there.
07:05What is your attitude? Or do you have any other share recommendation?
07:08We will review it after the break.
07:10Stay with us in the market bus segment.