On "Forbes Newsroom," Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell Inc., discussed a new Harvard/Harris poll showing former President Trump with a 3-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, new favorability ratings for both Trump and Harris, and the key issues that voters are concerned about.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Chairman
00:07and CEO of Stagwell Inc., also Chairman of Harris Poll, Mark Penn. Mark, thank you so
00:12much for joining me.
00:13Happy to be here.
00:14The state of the 2024 presidential race really shook up last week when President Joe Biden
00:22stepped down from the race, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris a few seconds later.
00:28And now here we are a week later. You have a new poll, Harvard-Capps-Harris poll on the
00:33state of the race. What are some of your takeaways?
00:36Well, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same is kind of the critical
00:41takeaway, which is that going into the debate, Trump had a several point advantage over Biden.
00:50And after the debate, Biden was pretty much falling off a cliff, particularly with the
00:56fact that Democrats had split and many of them were asking for him to resign. Now that
01:02he did resign from running again and Kamala Harris is the nominee, the race has come back
01:08to where it was with some changes. If you look, President Trump has a 48 percent favorable,
01:15highest favorable he's had because of some of the, I think, the character that he showed
01:20under literally fire. And Kamala Harris's image is totally different from what it was.
01:29She used to have a 38-52 unfavorable, and now all of a sudden it's 47-47 favorable out
01:36of the blue, a dramatic change in a week now that she's the nominee. And Democrats are
01:43cheering that they have a new nominee who could possibly take down Donald Trump.
01:50I know she's seeing this coronation. She's seeing what many describe as this honeymoon
01:54phase. President Biden, according to this poll, still doesn't have the best approval
02:00rating because she's his number two. Is that going to stick to her?
02:04Well, that's the real question. There's only 100 days here. She didn't really have the
02:09testing of a primary. And it seems like in the modern world, candidates conduct virtually
02:15anything for 100 days. So is, in fact, she going to be stuck with what people think
02:21about the Biden record? Is her kind of burst of enthusiasm going to kind of win out and
02:29kind of slide through? She's got the Democratic convention coming up, while the Republicans
02:33have already had their convention, so they won't get another shot. She's got a VP nominee.
02:39She's got a lot of things to kind of keep momentum going here. In our poll, Trump is
02:44winning by three to four points, depending upon who's in and who's out. But that means
02:49it's a relatively close race. Can you break down the poll here by demographic?
02:54What is sticking out to you? Well, what sticks out to me is there's an
02:58emerging gender gap in which men are more backing the Trump Vance ticket and women are
03:08lining up much more on Harris. So I do think we're going to see a resurgence of that kind
03:15of gap. And most people don't realize that women have an advantage in voting. They live
03:21longer, so there are more women. And then they actually tend to have a higher likelihood
03:28of voting. And so they actually have about a 5 or 6 million person advantage. So that
03:34gender gap that's emerging is something that the Trump campaign really has to address,
03:41or maybe what is their downfall. And now vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance
03:48really did the Trump campaign no favors with the resurgence of his childless cat ladies
03:53comments. I mean, I know women on both sides of the aisle taking great offense to those
03:59comments. How detrimental is that for his campaign? A and B, should Trump drop J.D.
04:06Vance? Well, kudos to Democratic oppo researchers
04:13who were able to pull this comment out from three years ago and blow it up into something
04:19you know, on social media and elsewhere that that dominates the Vance image. I think it's
04:24you know, this is a kind of a it's a it's a tricky thing. I think that that it ties
04:29into I think the disadvantage with with women that the that the Trump effort is showing.
04:36And I think that that Vance has some explaining to do. He's trying to explain it. He didn't
04:43have as a result, I think, I think the best launch. I never thought he was the best nominee,
04:49and certainly not the best nominee in a Harris race. I would certainly have have suggested
04:55he would have done better with Rubio. I don't know whether Trump could actually either want
05:00to or pull off a switch. It's not it's not in Trump's kind of makeup to go backwards.
05:08Even when he makes a choice that is that is not completely optimal.
05:13J.D. Vance's first two weeks as the vice presidential nominee do seem like a series of
05:18unforced errors here with those comments resurging. He hasn't had the most favorable
05:23social media embrace. But aside from that and women, where else is the Trump campaign
05:29the weakest? Well, I mean, obviously, the black vote, I think, is is coming back around
05:36Kamala Harris. But Trump campaign has a lot of strength. They are winning. They're doing
05:41well with independence. They're doing they're doing well with the Latino vote. I think here
05:47that that that neither side has adequately addressed and has really hurt particularly
05:53the working class Latino vote is hurt dramatically by the impact of inflation
05:59and the and the economy. Most Latinos see their economic fortune as as moving backwards.
06:06And so I think that you see Kamala Harris doing somewhat somewhat better with young people,
06:12with black voters, the Trump campaign obviously doing well with rural areas, but also doing well
06:18with suburban, also having a real issue advantage in terms of inflation and immigration and crime,
06:25all being top issues. So so and remember, ultimately, only 42 percent think that Biden
06:33did a good job as president. So the fact that she's out there campaigning today behind with
06:38Biden proposals on the Supreme Court, you know, those are real problems in terms of how does she
06:45win as a continuation of the Biden administration when most people reject continuing the Biden
06:52administration? She's coming in with about 100 days left, so there's very little runway for her.
06:58She's also coming in behind President Trump in the polls. What else does Vice President Kamala
07:04Harris see as weaknesses in her campaign? Well, I think her greatest weakness is her greatest
07:12strength, which is if she can avoid the issues and project an image of confidence and enthusiasm
07:20and run the table out, maybe maybe she'll debate, maybe maybe not, maybe just just one debate. If
07:26she can do that, she can kind of maybe glide in here. Most people think when we looked at some of
07:32the personal attributes that she's got a great temperament compared to Donald Trump. And if if
07:38she can make Trump seem that, you know, that that that his temperament isn't right for the presidency
07:45and hers and the country and hers is right, I think obviously she's got some issues in terms
07:51of the weaknesses. Does she favor open borders? You know, you know, is does she favor moving to
07:57EVs and getting rid of gas cars? We did a number of questions. Does she favor getting rid of private
08:03health insurance? I mean, really, two thirds to to three quarters of the voters oppose all those
08:11policies that she's on record as favoring in the past. So if she's really pinned down on those
08:16policies, is she has she changed her views or or not? Those are going to be, I think, important
08:23issues here to her to resolve one way or the other or to avoid. Immigration and inflation
08:30have been found in this poll as the top issues facing voters. And these are two issues that
08:36President Biden could they were his biggest weaknesses in his reelection campaign.
08:42Are these weaknesses for her? And how does she explain these away?
08:45Well, well, definitely the immigration issue, which is which is where there's this whole debate. Now,
08:52was she in charge of immigration or not, when clearly she was at least given the issue to
08:58handle and she obviously didn't didn't handle it in any meaningful way. Will the voters come
09:04around to to to that or will they skip over it? Are they just, you know, the original idea of the
09:11of the Biden campaign was was frankly just to paint Trump as unacceptable and anti-democratic.
09:18And that failed because it turned out that Biden really couldn't handle the job of the presidency.
09:23So is she just going to make the campaign into that and try to avoid kind of all of these kind
09:29of difficult, difficult issues and in the trouble her that to trouble her and would trouble the
09:35the trouble her that to trouble her and would trouble the electorate. And part of that is also
09:40how effective the Trump campaign is going to be. You can see here the Democratic campaign
09:45has been very effective in dragging up a comment from J.D. Vance from three years ago and getting
09:52it out there. But so far, the Trump campaign has not had the same effectiveness on social media
09:58against Harris. And she is rising in favorability. Let's talk about that a little bit more,
10:04because her now as the likely nominee seems to have caught the Trump campaign flatfooted a little
10:11bit. I mean, all the talk about unity after the assassination attempt seemingly went out the
10:17window. So how do they pivot their strategy now that it's a Harris Trump race instead of a Biden
10:24Trump race? Well, they've got to focus first on the core issues that they have advantages are
10:31inflation or the economy, immigration, crime, and really an international affairs where the
10:39world is aflame. And President Trump has a record of no wars while he was president. And so they
10:48have to get to those basics. And then second, they need to flesh out what does Harris really stand for
10:54and is she farther to the left than Joe Biden? And third, they have to tag
11:00Harris with the Biden administration, which generally unpopular for the last several years
11:07with job ratings of around 40 percent. The Harvard Caps Harris poll did find that two
11:13and five independents are still making up their mind. What does this mean to you?
11:18This means to me that this race could be won by either candidate. You're within a couple of points.
11:25Both candidates now have very similar images. Will the issues really dominate where there's 20 or 30
11:34point differences? Will women say, I can't have another Trump administration? Will Trump be able
11:40to moderate that? Will Hispanic voters come back to the Democratic Party or will they vote their
11:46pocketbook or what they perceive as their pocketbook? Will independent voters here assess the two again
11:57and really give this whole race a fresh start? They pretty much had decided in Trump's favor
12:03over Biden, but now they have to really take a look at Kamala Harris here and what she would do
12:10as president. So there's so many open questions here. And I think that question, which shows
12:17so many independents are saying they're open minded, suggests here that it's not election day,
12:25that anything could happen. And that's why there's a surge of people contributing money,
12:31of people getting enthusiastic. This is going to be a highly energized electorate here come
12:39November. There are a lot of unanswered, open-ended questions here, as you said,
12:45but I want to ask you one that you did mention, and that has to do with Hispanic voters.
12:49Do you see them in the next three months coming back more to the left now that Harris is on top
12:55of the ticket? I think this is a real problem for the Harris campaign, which is that I believe they
13:03will reconsolidate Black voters. But from what I see in the polls, given who she's likely to pick
13:10as a vice presidential choice, I don't see any clear ability that they've got to bring home
13:16Latino voters in the same way. And a lot of those are unhappy about the economy, are much more
13:23supportive of Trump than they've ever been. And so I think the election could well be decided
13:30by those Latino voters that Trump is doing historically better with.
13:35Let's talk about that vice presidential pick here. Just how important is it this time around,
13:41given the historic nature of this race, and who do voters want to see as her running mate?
13:48We always think during this period that the vice presidential choice is the most important choice,
13:54because we've got nothing else to do but speculate on who's going to be the VP.
14:00And in the end, unless it's disastrous, it really doesn't tend to make much difference,
14:06or it might underscore some themes. I think Trump intended to cement his capture of the Midwest
14:14with J.D. Vance, and how that's spinning out, I think, has been the success of the Democratic
14:21oppo. I think when we asked the voters who they wanted to see for Harris's VP choice,
14:27they didn't really have a pick. Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly were at the top,
14:32but that's because I think they're the ones most mentioned in the media, and even they had
14:37well under 20 percent in terms of interest, and 41 percent of the voters said they don't know.
14:43So I think it's going to be up to Harris here to shape the choice, and then up to Democrats
14:49and Republicans to go after whoever the choice is and support them. But I don't think at the
14:56end of the day it's more or less important than normal. We've long been saying that this race is
15:03going to be coming down to the battleground states, and the top two names you mentioned,
15:07Senator Mark Kelly, he would give a win through the Sun Belt or attempt to,
15:12and then Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would be more that traditional blue wall.
15:17What strategy for her do you think is better?
15:21I personally think the blue wall strategy is the more effective one. I don't think Kelly,
15:29you know, right now, you know, if you're Harris, you're a California progressive,
15:34you don't really have any connection into the blue wall Midwest. Personally, even if things
15:41look good overall in the polls, that doesn't mean that you're going to connect to those
15:46working class voters. I'm not sure Kelly's going to do it, you know, more so, you know, than
15:54someone like Fetterman, who's not really a possible VP choice, but who really connects
16:00with those kinds of voters. And so I think it would be better to pursue that strategy,
16:09because I think that's where the race is ultimately decided. And I don't think Kelly
16:13would have as many advantages. The dust does seem to finally be settling on this election
16:20shakeup a week after it was announced. But how does this data dovetail with your political experience?
16:28Well, I thought Democrats always picked the Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale,
16:34Al Gore, Joe Biden himself, and now Harris. So I think if there had been a primary,
16:41probably she would have run institutionally. That's the way things go in the Democratic Party.
16:48I was surprised always that President Biden's team agreed to a debate before the nomination,
16:57because it was the only thing that could possibly destabilize this nomination, and it did.
17:03And I was kind of shocked that they did that. And I don't know, you know, when all the
17:11books are written, you know, who proposed that and why they did that. But that was undoubtedly
17:17the biggest surprise of this election, was scheduling a debate so early and taking
17:25such a risk. And that risk obviously backfired on Joe Biden. So as we look at all these numbers,
17:32has everything we've known about this race so far fundamentally changed now that Harris
17:37is the likely nominee? Or has it just reset to maybe June 26th and that pre-debate time?
17:45I think that it's closer to a reset because, again, we're back to Trump by a couple of points.
17:52But there are certain advantages here. Look, age is now off the table as it relates to the
17:58Democratic nominee. What about experience? Is experience on the table? Does she have the
18:04experience and understanding in foreign affairs to be president? And is she going to face those
18:11kinds of questions? The black vote that seemed to be slipping away, I think that's going to be
18:16consolidated. The women's vote that seemed to be, you know, not as polarized against men
18:25seems to be much more polarized. So it is the same race on the surface, but there are key
18:32differences here. And of course, right now, her popularity is much higher than Joe Biden's
18:38ever was because he had been he had been slipping in job ratings, slipping in popularity
18:44and slipping in basically all the dimensions of his job. And do you think that that popularity is
18:52she'll be able to continue that as we get to the convention and as we get
18:58to a vice presidential pick? Will she be able to continue that till November?
19:04Look, I think that's kind of the the what we used to call the sixty four thousand dollar question,
19:11which is can she continue to surf up or is she going to hit a ceiling here,
19:16having brought back together what was the core Biden vote, you know, that kind of runs out with
19:21a lot of people who are unhappy with their economy, unhappy with the Biden administration.
19:26And and what had happened was that that they had fallen well below that ceiling because so many
19:32people thought Biden did such a bad job in the debate. So many Democrats had already defected.
19:38The easy votes have come back. Does it become much harder for her to gain points beyond that?
19:44I think it does become much harder for her to gain points, but she does have these several
19:50very favorable events here, including her convention, the lack of any serious questioning
19:58of her, you know, the good social media, I think, campaign that they've been able to put into
20:03into effect here that may raise this. But every single point here is going to be a very, very
20:08difficult point to get because the rest of these voters have been even if they say they
20:14might change their mind, have been pretty dug in for quite some time. Mark Penn, I appreciate the
20:19poll. I appreciate your conversation. I'm sure we will have plenty more between now and November.
20:25Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you.