BREAKING NEWS: New Poll Shows Trump Holding Lead Over Kamala Harris—But There's Good News For Both

3 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell Inc., discussed a new Harvard/Harris poll showing former President Trump with a 3-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, new favorability ratings for both Trump and Harris, and the key issues that voters are concerned about.

Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:

https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript

Stay Connected
Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes
More From Forbes: http://forbes.com

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Chairman

00:07and CEO of Stagwell Inc., also Chairman of Harris Poll, Mark Penn. Mark, thank you so

00:12much for joining me.

00:13Happy to be here.

00:14The state of the 2024 presidential race really shook up last week when President Joe Biden

00:22stepped down from the race, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris a few seconds later.

00:28And now here we are a week later. You have a new poll, Harvard-Capps-Harris poll on the

00:33state of the race. What are some of your takeaways?

00:36Well, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same is kind of the critical

00:41takeaway, which is that going into the debate, Trump had a several point advantage over Biden.

00:50And after the debate, Biden was pretty much falling off a cliff, particularly with the

00:56fact that Democrats had split and many of them were asking for him to resign. Now that

01:02he did resign from running again and Kamala Harris is the nominee, the race has come back

01:08to where it was with some changes. If you look, President Trump has a 48 percent favorable,

01:15highest favorable he's had because of some of the, I think, the character that he showed

01:20under literally fire. And Kamala Harris's image is totally different from what it was.

01:29She used to have a 38-52 unfavorable, and now all of a sudden it's 47-47 favorable out

01:36of the blue, a dramatic change in a week now that she's the nominee. And Democrats are

01:43cheering that they have a new nominee who could possibly take down Donald Trump.

01:50I know she's seeing this coronation. She's seeing what many describe as this honeymoon

01:54phase. President Biden, according to this poll, still doesn't have the best approval

02:00rating because she's his number two. Is that going to stick to her?

02:04Well, that's the real question. There's only 100 days here. She didn't really have the

02:09testing of a primary. And it seems like in the modern world, candidates conduct virtually

02:15anything for 100 days. So is, in fact, she going to be stuck with what people think

02:21about the Biden record? Is her kind of burst of enthusiasm going to kind of win out and

02:29kind of slide through? She's got the Democratic convention coming up, while the Republicans

02:33have already had their convention, so they won't get another shot. She's got a VP nominee.

02:39She's got a lot of things to kind of keep momentum going here. In our poll, Trump is

02:44winning by three to four points, depending upon who's in and who's out. But that means

02:49it's a relatively close race. Can you break down the poll here by demographic?

02:54What is sticking out to you? Well, what sticks out to me is there's an

02:58emerging gender gap in which men are more backing the Trump Vance ticket and women are

03:08lining up much more on Harris. So I do think we're going to see a resurgence of that kind

03:15of gap. And most people don't realize that women have an advantage in voting. They live

03:21longer, so there are more women. And then they actually tend to have a higher likelihood

03:28of voting. And so they actually have about a 5 or 6 million person advantage. So that

03:34gender gap that's emerging is something that the Trump campaign really has to address,

03:41or maybe what is their downfall. And now vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance

03:48really did the Trump campaign no favors with the resurgence of his childless cat ladies

03:53comments. I mean, I know women on both sides of the aisle taking great offense to those

03:59comments. How detrimental is that for his campaign? A and B, should Trump drop J.D.

04:06Vance? Well, kudos to Democratic oppo researchers

04:13who were able to pull this comment out from three years ago and blow it up into something

04:19you know, on social media and elsewhere that that dominates the Vance image. I think it's

04:24you know, this is a kind of a it's a it's a tricky thing. I think that that it ties

04:29into I think the disadvantage with with women that the that the Trump effort is showing.

04:36And I think that that Vance has some explaining to do. He's trying to explain it. He didn't

04:43have as a result, I think, I think the best launch. I never thought he was the best nominee,

04:49and certainly not the best nominee in a Harris race. I would certainly have have suggested

04:55he would have done better with Rubio. I don't know whether Trump could actually either want

05:00to or pull off a switch. It's not it's not in Trump's kind of makeup to go backwards.

05:08Even when he makes a choice that is that is not completely optimal.

05:13J.D. Vance's first two weeks as the vice presidential nominee do seem like a series of

05:18unforced errors here with those comments resurging. He hasn't had the most favorable

05:23social media embrace. But aside from that and women, where else is the Trump campaign

05:29the weakest? Well, I mean, obviously, the black vote, I think, is is coming back around

05:36Kamala Harris. But Trump campaign has a lot of strength. They are winning. They're doing

05:41well with independence. They're doing they're doing well with the Latino vote. I think here

05:47that that that neither side has adequately addressed and has really hurt particularly

05:53the working class Latino vote is hurt dramatically by the impact of inflation

05:59and the and the economy. Most Latinos see their economic fortune as as moving backwards.

06:06And so I think that you see Kamala Harris doing somewhat somewhat better with young people,

06:12with black voters, the Trump campaign obviously doing well with rural areas, but also doing well

06:18with suburban, also having a real issue advantage in terms of inflation and immigration and crime,

06:25all being top issues. So so and remember, ultimately, only 42 percent think that Biden

06:33did a good job as president. So the fact that she's out there campaigning today behind with

06:38Biden proposals on the Supreme Court, you know, those are real problems in terms of how does she

06:45win as a continuation of the Biden administration when most people reject continuing the Biden

06:52administration? She's coming in with about 100 days left, so there's very little runway for her.

06:58She's also coming in behind President Trump in the polls. What else does Vice President Kamala

07:04Harris see as weaknesses in her campaign? Well, I think her greatest weakness is her greatest

07:12strength, which is if she can avoid the issues and project an image of confidence and enthusiasm

07:20and run the table out, maybe maybe she'll debate, maybe maybe not, maybe just just one debate. If

07:26she can do that, she can kind of maybe glide in here. Most people think when we looked at some of

07:32the personal attributes that she's got a great temperament compared to Donald Trump. And if if

07:38she can make Trump seem that, you know, that that that his temperament isn't right for the presidency

07:45and hers and the country and hers is right, I think obviously she's got some issues in terms

07:51of the weaknesses. Does she favor open borders? You know, you know, is does she favor moving to

07:57EVs and getting rid of gas cars? We did a number of questions. Does she favor getting rid of private

08:03health insurance? I mean, really, two thirds to to three quarters of the voters oppose all those

08:11policies that she's on record as favoring in the past. So if she's really pinned down on those

08:16policies, is she has she changed her views or or not? Those are going to be, I think, important

08:23issues here to her to resolve one way or the other or to avoid. Immigration and inflation

08:30have been found in this poll as the top issues facing voters. And these are two issues that

08:36President Biden could they were his biggest weaknesses in his reelection campaign.

08:42Are these weaknesses for her? And how does she explain these away?

08:45Well, well, definitely the immigration issue, which is which is where there's this whole debate. Now,

08:52was she in charge of immigration or not, when clearly she was at least given the issue to

08:58handle and she obviously didn't didn't handle it in any meaningful way. Will the voters come

09:04around to to to that or will they skip over it? Are they just, you know, the original idea of the

09:11of the Biden campaign was was frankly just to paint Trump as unacceptable and anti-democratic.

09:18And that failed because it turned out that Biden really couldn't handle the job of the presidency.

09:23So is she just going to make the campaign into that and try to avoid kind of all of these kind

09:29of difficult, difficult issues and in the trouble her that to trouble her and would trouble the

09:35the trouble her that to trouble her and would trouble the electorate. And part of that is also

09:40how effective the Trump campaign is going to be. You can see here the Democratic campaign

09:45has been very effective in dragging up a comment from J.D. Vance from three years ago and getting

09:52it out there. But so far, the Trump campaign has not had the same effectiveness on social media

09:58against Harris. And she is rising in favorability. Let's talk about that a little bit more,

10:04because her now as the likely nominee seems to have caught the Trump campaign flatfooted a little

10:11bit. I mean, all the talk about unity after the assassination attempt seemingly went out the

10:17window. So how do they pivot their strategy now that it's a Harris Trump race instead of a Biden

10:24Trump race? Well, they've got to focus first on the core issues that they have advantages are

10:31inflation or the economy, immigration, crime, and really an international affairs where the

10:39world is aflame. And President Trump has a record of no wars while he was president. And so they

10:48have to get to those basics. And then second, they need to flesh out what does Harris really stand for

10:54and is she farther to the left than Joe Biden? And third, they have to tag

11:00Harris with the Biden administration, which generally unpopular for the last several years

11:07with job ratings of around 40 percent. The Harvard Caps Harris poll did find that two

11:13and five independents are still making up their mind. What does this mean to you?

11:18This means to me that this race could be won by either candidate. You're within a couple of points.

11:25Both candidates now have very similar images. Will the issues really dominate where there's 20 or 30

11:34point differences? Will women say, I can't have another Trump administration? Will Trump be able

11:40to moderate that? Will Hispanic voters come back to the Democratic Party or will they vote their

11:46pocketbook or what they perceive as their pocketbook? Will independent voters here assess the two again

11:57and really give this whole race a fresh start? They pretty much had decided in Trump's favor

12:03over Biden, but now they have to really take a look at Kamala Harris here and what she would do

12:10as president. So there's so many open questions here. And I think that question, which shows

12:17so many independents are saying they're open minded, suggests here that it's not election day,

12:25that anything could happen. And that's why there's a surge of people contributing money,

12:31of people getting enthusiastic. This is going to be a highly energized electorate here come

12:39November. There are a lot of unanswered, open-ended questions here, as you said,

12:45but I want to ask you one that you did mention, and that has to do with Hispanic voters.

12:49Do you see them in the next three months coming back more to the left now that Harris is on top

12:55of the ticket? I think this is a real problem for the Harris campaign, which is that I believe they

13:03will reconsolidate Black voters. But from what I see in the polls, given who she's likely to pick

13:10as a vice presidential choice, I don't see any clear ability that they've got to bring home

13:16Latino voters in the same way. And a lot of those are unhappy about the economy, are much more

13:23supportive of Trump than they've ever been. And so I think the election could well be decided

13:30by those Latino voters that Trump is doing historically better with.

13:35Let's talk about that vice presidential pick here. Just how important is it this time around,

13:41given the historic nature of this race, and who do voters want to see as her running mate?

13:48We always think during this period that the vice presidential choice is the most important choice,

13:54because we've got nothing else to do but speculate on who's going to be the VP.

14:00And in the end, unless it's disastrous, it really doesn't tend to make much difference,

14:06or it might underscore some themes. I think Trump intended to cement his capture of the Midwest

14:14with J.D. Vance, and how that's spinning out, I think, has been the success of the Democratic

14:21oppo. I think when we asked the voters who they wanted to see for Harris's VP choice,

14:27they didn't really have a pick. Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly were at the top,

14:32but that's because I think they're the ones most mentioned in the media, and even they had

14:37well under 20 percent in terms of interest, and 41 percent of the voters said they don't know.

14:43So I think it's going to be up to Harris here to shape the choice, and then up to Democrats

14:49and Republicans to go after whoever the choice is and support them. But I don't think at the

14:56end of the day it's more or less important than normal. We've long been saying that this race is

15:03going to be coming down to the battleground states, and the top two names you mentioned,

15:07Senator Mark Kelly, he would give a win through the Sun Belt or attempt to,

15:12and then Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would be more that traditional blue wall.

15:17What strategy for her do you think is better?

15:21I personally think the blue wall strategy is the more effective one. I don't think Kelly,

15:29you know, right now, you know, if you're Harris, you're a California progressive,

15:34you don't really have any connection into the blue wall Midwest. Personally, even if things

15:41look good overall in the polls, that doesn't mean that you're going to connect to those

15:46working class voters. I'm not sure Kelly's going to do it, you know, more so, you know, than

15:54someone like Fetterman, who's not really a possible VP choice, but who really connects

16:00with those kinds of voters. And so I think it would be better to pursue that strategy,

16:09because I think that's where the race is ultimately decided. And I don't think Kelly

16:13would have as many advantages. The dust does seem to finally be settling on this election

16:20shakeup a week after it was announced. But how does this data dovetail with your political experience?

16:28Well, I thought Democrats always picked the Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale,

16:34Al Gore, Joe Biden himself, and now Harris. So I think if there had been a primary,

16:41probably she would have run institutionally. That's the way things go in the Democratic Party.

16:48I was surprised always that President Biden's team agreed to a debate before the nomination,

16:57because it was the only thing that could possibly destabilize this nomination, and it did.

17:03And I was kind of shocked that they did that. And I don't know, you know, when all the

17:11books are written, you know, who proposed that and why they did that. But that was undoubtedly

17:17the biggest surprise of this election, was scheduling a debate so early and taking

17:25such a risk. And that risk obviously backfired on Joe Biden. So as we look at all these numbers,

17:32has everything we've known about this race so far fundamentally changed now that Harris

17:37is the likely nominee? Or has it just reset to maybe June 26th and that pre-debate time?

17:45I think that it's closer to a reset because, again, we're back to Trump by a couple of points.

17:52But there are certain advantages here. Look, age is now off the table as it relates to the

17:58Democratic nominee. What about experience? Is experience on the table? Does she have the

18:04experience and understanding in foreign affairs to be president? And is she going to face those

18:11kinds of questions? The black vote that seemed to be slipping away, I think that's going to be

18:16consolidated. The women's vote that seemed to be, you know, not as polarized against men

18:25seems to be much more polarized. So it is the same race on the surface, but there are key

18:32differences here. And of course, right now, her popularity is much higher than Joe Biden's

18:38ever was because he had been he had been slipping in job ratings, slipping in popularity

18:44and slipping in basically all the dimensions of his job. And do you think that that popularity is

18:52she'll be able to continue that as we get to the convention and as we get

18:58to a vice presidential pick? Will she be able to continue that till November?

19:04Look, I think that's kind of the the what we used to call the sixty four thousand dollar question,

19:11which is can she continue to surf up or is she going to hit a ceiling here,

19:16having brought back together what was the core Biden vote, you know, that kind of runs out with

19:21a lot of people who are unhappy with their economy, unhappy with the Biden administration.

19:26And and what had happened was that that they had fallen well below that ceiling because so many

19:32people thought Biden did such a bad job in the debate. So many Democrats had already defected.

19:38The easy votes have come back. Does it become much harder for her to gain points beyond that?

19:44I think it does become much harder for her to gain points, but she does have these several

19:50very favorable events here, including her convention, the lack of any serious questioning

19:58of her, you know, the good social media, I think, campaign that they've been able to put into

20:03into effect here that may raise this. But every single point here is going to be a very, very

20:08difficult point to get because the rest of these voters have been even if they say they

20:14might change their mind, have been pretty dug in for quite some time. Mark Penn, I appreciate the

20:19poll. I appreciate your conversation. I'm sure we will have plenty more between now and November.

20:25Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you.

BREAKING NEWS: New Poll Shows Trump Holding Lead Over Kamala Harris—But There's Good News For Both

Category

Transcript

Recommended