New HarrisX/Forbes Poll Reveals Small Group Of Democrats Leaning Toward Trump Post-Shooting

4 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX/Forbes poll that shows how voters feel following the assassination attempt on former President Trump.

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Transcript

00:00you and I talked was about a poll after the debate. And between the debate and up until Saturday,

00:07the main point of conversation when it's about 2024 is President Biden's fitness, President

00:13Biden's mental acuity, his performance at that debate, and then at rallies as well as interviews

00:18after. That has largely been muted since Saturday after the assassination attempt.

00:23So how has this event from Saturday impacted 2024?

00:28Great question. In one regard, it's too early to tell, right? And public opinion still needs a

00:35little bit of time to settle. In another regard, a lot will depend on what happens going forward,

00:42especially in the Republican National Convention, but also how both of the campaigns of both of the

00:50parties address this specific event. What is clear from the data, and we ask the question,

00:56has Donald Trump's shooting and the events of last week impacted a voter's choice for president in

01:022024 or not? What we see clearly is that it has energized Republicans, and it will be a very

01:09strong turnout tool for Republicans. 54% of Republicans said they're more likely to vote

01:14Republican. Only 3% said they're more likely to vote Democrat, and the rest said, 43% said it

01:21doesn't make a difference. So that's essentially half of Republicans saying that they're more

01:27likely to vote for Trump because of this event. When you look at Democrats, 7% of Democrats

01:36now say they're more likely to vote Republican. 40% say they're more likely to vote Democrat,

01:42and 53% say it hasn't made a difference. So a little bit less energy amongst the Democratic

01:49camp, a little bit that the concern about the inevitability of Trump being elected isn't

01:55resonating as strongly amongst Democrats. And then for independents, 7 in 10 out of all the

02:01independents say it doesn't make a difference. And by the very small margin, 19% to 11%

02:10say they're more likely to vote Republican than they are to vote Democrat. So bottom line is that

02:16this might affect turnout, but so far it hasn't affected the horse race. And we're not really

02:24seeing a bump for Trump or a rally around the hard candidate effect so far. Dritana, I just want to

02:32make sure that I'm hearing you correctly because in all of these numbers, you're saying that there

02:38is a small group of Democrats that are now leaning to vote for Trump in light of Saturday's event.

02:45Is that correct? Yes. It's about 7% who said that they're more likely to vote for Trump

02:52after this weekend's event. To some extent, this isn't unusual because Trump has always pulled

03:00about 10% of the Democratic vote his way. And also we have to wait and see a little bit whether

03:07this perception from these Democrats is sustained or if it dissipates. But yes, there is some

03:16goodwill amongst Democrats, 7% of them. And then certainly amongst independents, 19%

03:23said they're more likely to vote for Trump than they are to vote for Biden after the event.

New HarrisX/Forbes Poll Reveals Small Group Of Democrats Leaning Toward Trump Post-Shooting

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