Anthony Williams, Special Projects Director at Bendixen & Amandi International, joins Brittany Lewis on "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss a new 2024 presidential poll in the aftermath of the historic debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes breaking news. Joining me now is Anthony Williams,
00:07Special Projects Director at Ben Dixon and Amandi International. Anthony, thank you so
00:11much for joining me.
00:12Thank you for having me.
00:14You have a new poll out discussing the nature of the 2024 presidential race after the debate
00:19between President Biden and former President Donald Trump. This comes after what many have
00:25called Biden's performance disastrous, devastating, and there are increased calls for him to step
00:31down. What did the poll find when it comes to the horse race between Biden and Trump?
00:36Well, I think it's important to first contextualize the viewpoint that the survey was trying to
00:44come at this from. The debate largely, it's better to go forward with President Biden's
00:52experience or perhaps better to go forward with some other younger, fresher face. And
00:59so the primary conceit of this survey was to test those two lanes. And so, of course,
01:06we tested President Biden, Vice President Harris, as well as a couple of the other younger
01:11alternatives that have been mentioned in recent weeks, including Governor Gretchen Whitmer
01:18and Governor Gavin Newsom of California. In order to have an adequate control, however,
01:24in order to have another person in the experience lane so you would have something to judge
01:29President Biden's performance against, we thought that Hillary Clinton would be the
01:33appropriate choice to serve in that position as a control. What we found in the results
01:40was actually quite surprising. While President Biden is currently behind President Trump
01:45by one point, the Vice President does a little bit better than he does. And in this survey
01:50is beating President Trump by a point. The other, let's call them fresher faces, younger
02:01candidates don't do quite as well. Governor Newsom is behind by three. Governor Whitmer
02:08is behind by four, doing worse than President Biden at the moment. When we went further,
02:15we thought it might be interesting to test some potential matchups. Obviously, this is
02:19all assuming that President Biden chooses to step aside, which we don't know if that's
02:25going to be his ultimate decision. But if he does, we thought it important to test some
02:30other potential matchups. And so if you put Vice President Harris with Governor Whitmer,
02:37for example, President Trump is still ahead of that ticket by two points. Vice President
02:43Harris with Governor Shapiro of Pennsylvania, however, is actually up two points. And perhaps
02:48most surprisingly, the strongest person individually was Secretary Clinton, up two points by herself.
02:57And even more interesting was we put together a ticket of Clinton and Harris, and that ticket
03:02was actually up plus three, showing particular strength with women, plus 13 among women over
03:09President Trump. It's interesting because voters don't seem necessarily enthusiastic
03:16about a 2020 rematch, but you're proposing a 2016 rematch between Secretary Hillary Clinton
03:23and former President Donald Trump. Are you surprised by her strong performance in this
03:27poll? Well, let me first say that we're not necessarily proposing such a matchup. We thought
03:35from a research standpoint, it was important to test someone else with experience to see
03:40where the voters really stood in this experience versus fresh face argument. And that was the
03:46reason for her inclusion in the poll. We were surprised by her strength, considering that
03:51she has not been on a ballot now in eight years and has largely been doing her nonprofit
03:58work and some of her other charitable work here in the country and around the world.
04:04But given the circumstances, if the choices between experience and younger faces, at
04:10least in this survey, having an experienced person not named Biden seemed to be the preferred
04:15alternative, albeit by only a point or two. But in a tight election, a point or two could
04:20be all the difference. I want to read a question that you post to voters and talk about it
04:26a little further. This is the question. Would you vote for President Joe Biden in the November
04:30election if he were cognitively diminished because of his advanced age and unlikely to
04:35complete another four year term as president if it meant preventing Donald Trump from winning
04:39the election and becoming president again? Forty eight percent said no. Forty four percent
04:45said yes. So do you think based on those results, President Biden's mental fitness and
04:49acuity is baked in, much like former President Trump's legal challenges are baked into
04:54voters minds? Very much so. I would also take that as a measure of what you might
05:00consider the likely floor for Democrats. That's a number of people in the way that the
05:08question was posed. That is the number of people who would vote for Biden despite his
05:13diminished capacity, if that were their estimation, just to stop President Trump from
05:19reentering the White House. So you could assume that that is probably the base vote for
05:26any likely Democrat by the time we get to November. One of Democrats made her talking
05:31points is is President Biden is the best chance to beat Trump because Donald Trump is a
05:37threat to democracy and he can't be in the White House. Do voters feel Donald Trump is a
05:42threat to democracy? Well, you know, it's interesting we pose that question because we
05:47only we thought it only fair since we were asking pretty hard questions about President
05:52Biden to ask an equally hard question about President Trump. And 53% of voters in this
06:00survey believe that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. And yet and still, you'll see
06:06that President Trump is winning many of these matchups. So despite their concerns about
06:12him, there are some that will still give him another chance, given the current matchup
06:16between he and President Biden. The poll shows that Biden won't beat Trump, but Vice
06:23President Harris will. Do you think that this survey shows that voters are willing to
06:28replace President Biden? And that's Democrats best plan to win the White House in 2024?
06:35Well, I think there's a couple of things that you have to consider, you know, touching
06:39again on the democracy question for a moment. No party affiliation voters, third party,
06:47no party voters, by a very wide margin, believe that President Trump is a danger to democracy.
06:55And so when you start talking about the alternatives that could be the matchups for this fall,
07:01there are a lot of people who I think would feel more comfortable having another alternative,
07:07but their concerns about the president's age and mental fitness are kind of holding them
07:14back at the moment. Not to say that perhaps the president couldn't overcome those objections,
07:19but he would have to show many of these voters that he still has the ability to do the job
07:24for another four years.
07:26President Biden's mental fitness, his ability to do the job for another four years has been
07:31main focus of conversation in all newsrooms, political circles, headlines, everything in between.
07:39And I am curious how many voters saw the debate and how much does that debate matter come November?
07:48Well, the vast majority of people either saw the debate live or have since seen clips of the debate,
07:54whether it be on social media or otherwise going back and watching the rerun.
08:01Among those people who saw the debate, we specifically asked the question as to what percentage thought
08:06that the president maintained the mental and physical ability to serve for another four years.
08:13And we found that among people who saw the debate or watched clips of the debate,
08:17only 20 percent said yes, 61 percent of respondents said no.
08:23I'd also note here that concerns around the president's age have been a consistent element of polling now
08:29for some time, as well as in focus groups.
08:33People have been mentioning this now for quite some time.
08:36The debate in many ways served to crystallize an issue that was really already there.
08:43And what we found in this survey is that it's a general concern across the board.
08:47Even a third of Democrats said no.
08:50They did not think the president had the mental and physical ability to serve for another four years.
08:55And if you're a Democrat, perhaps the more concerning number is that independents said no by a pretty significantly wide margin.
09:04The debate has been talked about ad nauseum for the past two weeks.
09:09Do you think anything is missing from the national conversation?
09:12Any angle overlooked when you're hearing the conversations about the debate and you're looking at these numbers?
09:19Well, as I'm looking at these numbers, as I said at the outset,
09:22the conversation here begins with whether or not President Biden should continue as the nominee.
09:29And we asked that specific question in the poll as well.
09:32And only 33 percent of people said yes.
09:35And again, only a third of Democrats said yes.
09:38A wide majority of independents and no party and third party voters indicated that he should not.
09:45Only black voters lean towards him staying in the race.
09:49And even that group is 50 percent yes, 30 percent no and 20 percent undecided.
09:54For comparison, Biden won 87 percent of the black vote in 2020.
09:59So clearly there are some concerns here.
10:01I think Democrats are having a constructive conversation as any reasonable organization in such a situation would have.
10:11And it's going to be up to President Biden whether or not he chooses to step aside or if he believes that he still has the vigor
10:18to run this race and prosecute the case against President Trump until that question is settled.
10:26It's going to be difficult for any of the other issues within the political landscape to really emerge.
10:32We first have to determine whether or not President Biden is going to continue and whether the majority of the country
10:38and a significant number of people in his own party believe that he has the mental and physical ability to continue.
10:45President Biden has said in no uncertain terms that he is going to continue calls from his party even today before you and I came
10:52on continue to be vocalized that they think President Biden should step aside.
10:58So what are you looking out for between now and November?
11:03Well, I think there's two windows to look out for.
11:05There's what to look out for over the course of the next week or two, both during and after the Republican convention,
11:13how that goes, how that's reported out in the media, as well as in the lead up to the Democratic Party officially declaring their nominee
11:21when they vote later on this month. As this poll shows, not only is the majority of voters overall concerned about President Biden's age
11:31and capacity, but a third of Democrats are in that same boat.
11:37And I think that. Democratic members of Congress, other Democratic leaders around the country are hearing that, and that's fundamentally the
11:48conversation that is being had. Can the president convince his base that he's good?
11:54And moreover, can he convince unaffiliated third party independent voters of the same?
12:03We know that historically. By the time we get to November, both parties typically rally around their nominee and those nominees can expect to
12:14receive 90 plus percent of the voters of their own party.
12:19The question, therefore, is which way do independents swing?
12:24That has been the case now several election cycles in a row, and it's in part the answer as to why the presidency has gone back and forth.
12:34The very independent, the important independent vote has been the key determinant of who ends up in the White House.
12:41And as I mentioned, currently, independents are very concerned by wide margins, more than 20 percent percentage points about the president's ability
12:50to serve and whether or not he should remain the nominee.
12:54So the question is not necessarily who's best for Democrats, because whatever Democrat ends up at the end of at the top of the ticket is probably going
13:02to get 90 plus percent of Democratic voters. The question is more likely who can appeal to those independents, because that's going to be where the race is
13:09decided. When it comes to those undecided, when it comes to those independents, does this poll give a sense that this debate performance from President
13:18Biden was a make or break moment for them? Or is it rather a piece in a larger election puzzle?
13:25I would say it's more likely a piece in a larger election puzzle. Independent voters in our previous research have kind of gone back and forth,
13:34at times leaning towards the Democratic position, at times leaning towards the Republican position, but consistently voicing their concerns about the
13:43nominees of both parties. I think what we're experiencing right now in the aftermath of the debate is the focus on the potential weaknesses and
13:55liabilities of President Biden are currently more in focus and much more part of the national conversation. If and when that conversation is
14:04settled, either with President Biden continuing on as the nominee or stepping aside for an alternative, then the question may swing back to
14:13President Trump and the equally concerning issues that independents have with him.
14:20Anthony, I appreciate you coming on today, breaking down this poll, and I hope we can continue the conversation as we inch closer to November. Thanks for
14:27joining me.
14:29My pleasure. Thank you so much.