14 Day Outlook presented by Alex Burkill
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00:00Hello, welcome to your latest Met Office 14 day outlook.
00:04There is some uncertainty as to exactly how quickly we're going to get there,
00:08but strong signs we're going to have blocking high pressure as we go through into April.
00:12For the time being though, and we actually have a bit of high pressure across us
00:16as we go through into Wednesday, so a quiet night, a bit chilly for some,
00:20some fog first thing, then a mostly fine day before a weather system comes in from the northwest.
00:24So plenty of rain towards northwestern parts on Thursday,
00:28then sweeping through on Friday with blustery showers following towards the north.
00:32Then a brief ridge of high pressure quietens things down for a time early Saturday
00:36before more wet and windy weather pushes through as we go through Saturday and into Sunday.
00:40Thereafter, this is where the uncertainty comes in.
00:44We have high pressure towards the southwest of the UK and some models want this to build
00:48quite quickly and settle our weather down as we go through Sunday
00:52and into the beginning of next week. However, other models want this high to
00:56linger here for a little while longer and allow for another system to come through.
01:00So more wet and windy weather for a time as we go through Sunday and into Monday.
01:04But whether or not we have more unsettled weather for a little while yet,
01:08what I'm a bit more confident about is the fact that we are going to see
01:12a change to something more settled with blocking high pressure becoming more dominant.
01:16And you can see that if we look at our probability plot, yes, we have some blues
01:20indicating a relatively unsettled story as we go through Thursday
01:24and Friday and into the weekend.
01:28But thereafter, strong signs that through the first week of April
01:32we are going to see high pressure firmly in charge and it looks like it's going to stay in charge
01:36as we go through towards the middle of the month as well.
01:40If we look at the ECMWF anomaly charts and starting off with pressure
01:44and the pinks indicating that much higher than average pressure most likely across the bulk of the UK
01:48is that high pressure to the south will have pushed its way northeastwards
01:52sitting somewhere across the UK or just to the northeast of us.
01:56And with that then, we'd have a lot of dry weather around,
02:00so not much rain if any at all, and our temperatures are going to be
02:04a bit above average for the time of year.
02:08If we just look ahead a little bit further to the following week, and by this point,
02:12most likely the high pressure will have shifted a bit further north.
02:16And whilst this would still bring a lot of settled dry weather across many parts of the UK,
02:20it's going to develop particularly towards the far south and we will be dragging in a bit of an easterly.
02:24Now, if this was happening during the winter, an easterly would be a pretty cold direction.
02:28But because we're now heading deeper into spring, that easterly wind,
02:32well, it's not going to be too cold at all, if anything.
02:36It will bring something a little bit warmer than average, so temperatures not dropping a huge amount
02:40from the first week of April. But in summary then, as we go through, well, the next 14 days,
02:44we are going to see a more unsettled spell to end this week
02:48and through much of the weekend. Then at some stage, either through Sunday
02:52or very early next week, we're going to have a change to high pressure building
02:56and that's going to be a blocking pattern, keeping fronts away.
03:00And so we're going to have a lot of dry weather, but perhaps towards the end of the period,
03:04a few more showers developing, especially towards the south.
03:08I hope you have a lovely rest of your day and I'll see you again soon.