14 day outlook presented by Aiden McGivern.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 14-day outlook in which we discuss the most likely
00:05weather patterns for the next couple of weeks. Weather patterns across the UK have been fairly
00:09static and slow moving during the last week or so, with high pressure in charge. That
00:14high at the time of recording has slipped east, allowing a southerly airflow across
00:20the UK, but essentially it's more of the same for many – a lot of cloud cover, not many
00:25cloud breaks. A couple of subtle changes over the coming
00:29days. There is one area of low pressure that will bring some showery rain in during Thursday
00:33and Friday, mostly to the west. And then another low approaches, that's going to be picked
00:37up by the jet stream going into the weekend. Again, it's going to swing to the north of
00:42the UK, but this one will come close to the northwest of Scotland, increasing the winds
00:48for northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing a period of rain in over
00:52the weekend from west to east, that rain fizzling away as it pushes into higher pressure. And
00:59the front itself slowing down. But there are promising signs that behind the front, we'll
01:05see clearer spells and fresher air arriving. As a result, less cloud cover and indeed high
01:11pressure returns for the start of next week. In that clearer air, this is the most likely
01:17weather pattern for Monday, the 11th of November. Higher pressure reasserting itself as the
01:22dominant influence over the UK, but with greater potential for some sunny spells, some brighter
01:28weather, albeit with perhaps still some frost and fog by night. Wednesday, that high still
01:36with us. So maintaining that generally settled theme through the week. However, around the
01:42high, again, it's likely that we're going to see some clouds start to mix in and slowly
01:48circulate close to the UK. By the end of the week into Saturday, the 16th of November,
01:54the most likely scenario is for that high pressure to still be with us. This scenario
02:00is showing high pressure to the west of the UK, although uncertainties by this stage about
02:04exactly where the centre of gravity for the high will be. It looks likely that we'll have
02:09a lot of cloud close to the country, but staying mostly settled nevertheless. An alternative
02:15scenario that's coming through by this stage is for the high to be sinking south, allowing
02:20weather systems to come in on the top and bringing some more changeable weather to parts
02:25of Scotland, for example. And that seems to be the theme as we go into the following week,
02:31so from the middle of November. Some uncertainties about when this change is going to take place,
02:36but certainly a lot of agreement that the weather will start to turn more changeable
02:40from the north of the UK from the middle of November. So to summarise, this is the most
02:46likely pressure pattern through the week of the 11th to the 18th of November. The European
02:52model pressure anomaly averaged for the whole week. High pressure strongly in charge, sitting
02:57directly over the UK. But fast forward to the following week and this is showing up
03:02as the pressure anomaly. No strong signs, but it's showing higher pressure generally
03:08to the south, lower pressure towards the north, with the weather potentially turning more
03:13changeable from the north and staying driest for longest towards the south. But really
03:20those changes aren't expected until around the middle of November onwards. For the next
03:24couple of weeks, mostly it's expected to stay settled, albeit rather cloudy at times.