10 January - 14 day outlook presented by Aidan McGivern
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00:00Hi there, welcome to the 14-day outlook from the Met Office, recorded on the 10th of January.
00:04The first 10 days of January have brought wintry scenes, but it's all changed now during
00:09the weekend and into the second or third week of January. Now, we start the period with
00:16high pressure over the UK, a lot of fine weather, crisp winter sunshine, but the cold air remains
00:22at the start of the forthcoming weekend. Then, gradually milder air makes inroads from the
00:30west initially in the north during Sunday and then by early next week, that milder air
00:35is toppling in nationwide, courtesy of increasing west to south westerly winds and high pressure
00:42sitting to the south. Now, there's not going to be an awful lot of rainfall as this transition
00:48takes place. There'll be a lot of settled weather over the weekend and early next week.
00:53For all the latest details on that, please do check the latest short-range forecasts
00:58on the Met Office app and YouTube channel. But there will be some considerable snow
01:02melt in the north and west of Scotland and some outbreaks of increasing heavy rain. So,
01:09by Tuesday, the 14th of January, this is the most likely weather pattern. High pressure
01:14to the south and a west to south westerly wind bringing mild air to many northern parts
01:20of the UK and eventually, the south will also see that mild air skipping forward throughout
01:26the forthcoming week. And you can see that remains the most likely weather pattern, high
01:30pressure over the south. Even as we get to Friday, the 17th of January, the percentage
01:35chance of it happening reduces a little as could be expected, but it remains the most
01:40likely pattern. And it would bring above average temperatures across the northern half of the
01:45UK and perhaps the south eventually as well with increasing cloudy skies, outbreaks of
01:51rain in the far north and northwest, but otherwise, for many, with that high pressure
01:55nearby, it's generally settled. An alternative weather pattern, the second most likely throughout
02:00the upcoming week, is for that high to be a little further south and westerly winds
02:05across the whole of the UK bringing nationwide above average temperatures by a few degrees
02:11and also a lot of cloud cover coming in from the Atlantic. So, in general, 13th of January
02:16to the 17th of January, it's cloudy for most although there will be some brightness in
02:20the east and the south at times. It's also breezy, especially in the north, and it's
02:24the north and west of Scotland where we're likely to see the heaviest spells of rain,
02:28although a few spots of rain couldn't be ruled out elsewhere, particularly for western parts.
02:32Mostly, though, it's expected to be settled until the next week comes along, 20th of January
02:39to the 27th of January. This is the anomaly, pressure anomaly, from the European model
02:45output and it shows that high pressure sinking away further to the south or the east and
02:50more of an Atlantic influence, the jet stream coming south, low pressure systems moving
02:55through, the weather chopping and changing each day. So, more unsettled, more changeable
03:00spells of wind and rain, temperatures up and down as those weather systems move through.
03:05On the whole, much more unsettled. So, the upcoming week, milder but mostly fine. Then,
03:13later in January and perhaps into February as well, the weather very much more mixed.