Bank Indonesia, mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di 5,75% persen di tengah rebound IHSG. IHSG menguat pasca alami trading halt kemarin, karena pelemahan tajam di atas 5%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Good morning, Mas Wiki.
00:05For this morning's discussion, we are joined by Mas Sandika Ciptalabora,
00:09an analyst from PT Kanakahita Solvera.
00:11Good morning, Mas Sandika.
00:13Hello, good morning, Mas Wiki.
00:15Thank you for joining us on Market Plus.
00:17If we talk about what was categorized as a strong sentiment from ESG
00:24it was determined that Bung Acuan was still 5.75%
00:28in the middle of ESG's positive trend.
00:30A few days ago, there was a trading halt from Bursa Efek Indonesia
00:33due to a significant weakness.
00:37What is your analysis on this, Mas Sandika?
00:42Okay, this is a positive sentiment for the movement of ESG yesterday.
00:47ESG was able to strengthen.
00:49However, the day before, on Tuesday, ESG closed its first session
00:56and fell by more than 5% resulting in a trading halt for 30 minutes.
01:02Indeed, Bung Acuan was maintained at 5.75%
01:07to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.
01:11This was also pushed by the lack of economic certainty.
01:16Especially when we read that US President Donald Trump
01:22is in a trading war.
01:24Sometimes he raises the price, sometimes he lowers the price.
01:27This creates an economic uncertainty.
01:30So, I think the ESG maintaining Bung Acuan
01:34is the right thing to do to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.
01:40Okay, that was the reaction of the market.
01:43Apparently, Bung Acuan was the only one that was maintained.
01:45We can see that ESG was able to strengthen by more than 1.4%.
01:52From yesterday's movement, what should be highlighted?
01:56If we look at the conglomerate stock,
01:58this is also a supporting factor for the strengthening of ESG.
02:02What is your analysis on this, Mas Sandika?
02:04Okay, for the conglomerate stock,
02:06the one that became the fuel for ESG to strengthen
02:11is the DCI-E stock.
02:13Because it strengthens upward auto-rejection
02:16and the DCI-E stock has a market cap of around Rp330 billion.
02:22And there is also the TPIA brand from the PPP conglomerate.
02:27I see that this is just a short-term sentiment.
02:33Because some conglomerate stocks are also affected by the decline of ESG.
02:38So the price of the stock has experienced a significant decline in recent times.
02:44So when there was a positive sentiment for ESG,
02:49this became the fuel for the conglomerate stocks to experience a technical rebound.
02:58Okay.
02:59What is also quite exciting in the global stock market
03:02is that Wall Street made a significant strengthening,
03:04even though Europe was closed.
03:06Yesterday, The Fed maintained that the conglomerate stocks brought US stocks to strengthen.
03:11Actually, this may be one of the global sentiments that is also quite highlighted.
03:18And maybe this will also be the fuel if I borrow the term from you.
03:22Domestic movements today.
03:24Yesterday, the BI also maintained the conglomerate stocks, Mas Sandika.
03:28Okay.
03:29This is also in line with the projection, sir.
03:32Because the Fed itself projected to cut the conglomerate stocks twice this year.
03:43And it will start in June or July 2025.
03:48Well, it seems that the conglomerate stocks are still held at a high level.
03:55Because if we look at it, US inflation is not even close to 2%.
04:01Because the Fed's own target to cut the conglomerate stocks
04:05if the US inflation is at 2%.
04:10So for now, this is the right thing for the Fed to hold the conglomerate stocks.
04:18Okay.
04:19Hold the conglomerate stocks.
04:20Okay.
04:21In terms of market reaction, maybe today there will be a positive reaction.
04:25Okay.
04:26It seems that today the IHSG can still withstand the strength, right?
04:32Technically, there was a buy pressure yesterday.
04:38So if I look at it, technically it managed to break through the Fibonacci resistance of 38.2%.
04:47And it looks like there will be a boost to level 63-60.
04:52It seems that today there will still be a chance to rise, even though it was not as big as yesterday.
04:57Okay.
04:58Okay.
04:59This is a kind of education, and maybe if we then borrow the POV from Bank Indonesia,
05:05the choice is of course up to the Governor's Council.
05:08And maybe if we then borrow the POV from Bank Indonesia,
05:13the choice is of course up to the Governor's Council,
05:16which is to maintain, increase, or decrease.
05:21Well, yesterday it was decided that it would still maintain at 5.75%.
05:26But there are some predictions, or maybe analysis,
05:29if later Bank Indonesia takes a scenario to reduce its share price.
05:34Some say that this will be quite negative,
05:37especially regarding the fluctuation in the exchange rate of US dollars.
05:42And the implication, even if we talk about the scenario,
05:46Bank Indonesia turns out to reduce its share price,
05:50and it turns out that there is still space for that.
05:52There is still room to reduce the share price this year.
05:55But yesterday it was not taken.
05:57What do you think, if the scenario of Bank Indonesia reduces the share price,
06:02what will happen, Mr. Andika?
06:04Okay, it looks like reducing the share price is like a double-edged sword.
06:11Because if, for example, Bank Indonesia reduces the share price,
06:14later it will become a negative sentiment for the exchange rate.
06:18However, if it reduces the share price,
06:23then later this can move the economy again.
06:29We know that in recent times, Indonesia has experienced a deflation.
06:33And if, for example, the flow rate drops,
06:36later the real sector will move,
06:38because investors who have been planting their money in savings,
06:44like that, because the flow rate drops,
06:46see that the return is no longer attractive,
06:49and make them invest in the real sector,
06:53invest in the capital market sector too.
06:57But later this will be a boomerang,
07:00because just like I said at the beginning,
07:04it's a double-edged sword, later the rupiah can be suppressed like that.
07:08Okay, another interesting thing,
07:10and also conveyed by the authorities or policy makers
07:16related to the OJK response on the fluctuation of the market yesterday.
07:21So they allow METEN to buyback without raising the rupiah first.
07:26How far do you see this as an issue,
07:30or maybe something that is quite a concern for market players?
07:33We will continue in the next episode,
07:35and the authorities are still with us.
07:37We will be back soon.