"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Prime Special Event, dengan tema Economic Insight 2025: Prospek Pasar Modal Indonesia".
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00:00I am Ilhuni MMUI.
00:13Good evening, Ladies and Gentlemen,
00:16and also the lecturers, and students.
00:20I am Ilhuni MMUI.
00:23I was Ilhuni MM.
00:27So I took the model market.
00:29I'm here because I work in security, and thank you for the opportunity today
00:36to allow me, Julius Kurniawan, to give a second session
00:40about the prospects of the model market.
00:45If we look at the screen, it's red.
00:51I saw that when it opened, it was minus 1.9.
00:56And when Mr.Rosan talked, it was 1.6.
01:02Minus 1.6 percent, so it's a slight increase.
01:05When Mr.Rosan left, it was minus again.
01:09Maybe next time, Mr.Rosan's session will be longer.
01:14Who knows, in one hour, the market could turn green.
01:19So this second session, even though in the model market,
01:23there is a term, the market is pre-closed.
01:27Less than one hour, this second session can provide additional insight for you.
01:33Especially here, I also see some investors
01:39to see how the prospects of the model market in Indonesia.
01:45There are three sources that are not less interesting,
01:50which will provide additional insight in this second session.
01:55And we will call our sources one by one.
02:00First,
02:02Mr. Arief Wibisono.
02:10We welcome Mr. Arief Wibisono to the stage.
02:15Let's give him a round of applause.
02:22Mr. Arief Wibisono is an expert staff in finance, finance and model market.
02:30So if yesterday we have heard from Mrs. Sri Mulyani about APBN,
02:35I will ask her later about the development of APBN in 2025.
02:41Next, the second speaker we will welcome on stage,
02:49Mr. Irwan Adiekaputra, Professor of Finance, Universitas Indonesia.
02:56Good afternoon, Prof. Irwan.
02:59Prof. Irwan used to be my lecturer.
03:01So if we are in class, we must ask questions.
03:04You will get a card later.
03:06So this time I will ask questions on stage.
03:10And the third speaker who is not less interesting,
03:13who will attend this second session,
03:17I call with respect,
03:19Mr. Fahrul Fulfian,
03:21Chief Economist, Rimega Securities.
03:25Chief Economist, Rimega Securities.
03:29Good afternoon, Mr. Fahrul.
03:31Please, have a seat.
03:43Usually, when it comes to model market,
03:45the first question is always,
03:47what is the target of IHSG?
03:50But this time we will discuss the latest developments.
03:53First, Mr. Arief, how are you, sir?
03:59I am fine, Mr. Julius.
04:01Before that, I was Mr. Abambang,
04:04our senior in finance.
04:08Thank you, sir.
04:11Okay, so yesterday in the news,
04:15it was announced by...
04:17Hopefully, the question is not formed
04:19between today's news and yesterday.
04:24Whatever it is, officially,
04:26I will refer to yesterday's figures.
04:28Okay.
04:29So yesterday, investors heard that
04:34the country's spending was as large as Rp348 trillion,
04:39for two months.
04:41Deficit of Rp31.2 trillion,
04:45or minus 30 percent.
04:48According to you, how is the IHSG in 2025?
04:53Yes, as stated by the press conference yesterday,
04:57I hope, but I am sure,
04:59because the FEB must have followed yesterday.
05:03So if we look at yesterday,
05:05this is the first three months.
05:08So, of course, with the new administration of Mr. Prabowo,
05:14we know that we also need
05:17some formation of ministries and new institutions.
05:22If Mr. Julius has experience in bureaucracy,
05:25he must know that to execute a budget,
05:29to plan a budget,
05:31it requires some examples.
05:34Office of Commitment Makers.
05:36We have Laws 1, 2004, Laws 17, 2003,
05:40regarding state finance.
05:42Since the law was passed,
05:44there are a lot of compliance that we have to do.
05:48As we can see,
05:50at this moment,
05:53indeed, because there is a new ministry,
05:56perhaps the budgeting experience
06:00should not be upgraded.
06:04There are also many requests from various institutions,
06:07so that our friends in the Ministry of Finance
06:09also together with the new bureaucracy
06:12to do that, to do the budget.
06:16So, as we can see,
06:18this is only the first three months.
06:20Yesterday, it was also said that
06:22due to the busy schedule,
06:24and also because the number is not yet fixed,
06:28and indeed, January, February, March
06:31is a series of months.
06:34If it is announced,
06:37or informed,
06:39per month,
06:41perhaps it does not capture the whole process
06:43as I said earlier.
06:45Since October 20,
06:47the inauguration of Mr. Prabowo,
06:49then the formation of the ministry,
06:51we have a new ministry,
06:53there is a new institution,
06:55then how we do the consolidation,
06:58that is one interesting thing.
07:01For the first time, perhaps we also see
07:04that we have a backup.
07:08That is unprecedented for the first time.
07:11In my opinion, this is a good thing.
07:13We also got a story from the minister,
07:16he is in charge of regional government.
07:20On that occasion,
07:22even some of them
07:24just this time
07:26become bureaucrats.
07:28So, indeed,
07:30the dynamics there reflect
07:32that we have to work together solidly.
07:35Because indeed there are new players,
07:38but our takeline continues,
07:40our challenges are big,
07:42I have prepared a slide,
07:45but it's okay, we can discuss it later.
07:47If we look at it,
07:49Trump's point O is quite challenging.
07:53So, in the past,
07:56maybe if the Faculty of Economics is in mercantilism.
07:59It turns out we see new figures
08:02that may be beyond our prediction.
08:04Even though this is point zero.
08:06One point zero is also this,
08:08but it turns out we still have
08:10quite a few dynamics that we have to follow.
08:13This is actually one thing
08:15that we saw yesterday.
08:17Even now,
08:19we can no longer see
08:21the so-called close friends.
08:23We see Canada and the United States.
08:25It's like siblings.
08:27If we study economics,
08:29it's always compared between the two countries.
08:31Even geographically and historically.
08:33One is a republic,
08:35the other is still under the Commonwealth.
08:39But it turns out,
08:41when Trump came,
08:43there was what we called
08:45multilateralism.
08:47Multilateralism has now become
08:49unitalarism.
08:51If we look at it,
08:53after the Second World War,
08:56the United States promoted
08:58several international organizations.
09:00But it turns out,
09:02in Trump's time,
09:04all those beliefs are no longer valid.
09:06So, we see how Canada, Mexico,
09:09and of course China.
09:11But we're talking about America's friends.
09:13America's right and left.
09:15The closest neighbor is our neighbor.
09:20Canada and Mexico
09:24can no longer rely on NAFTA
09:27which was also initiated by America.
09:30So, North America Free Trade Agreement
09:35needs to be reviewed.
09:38Then, if we look at multilateral organizations,
09:41I'm sure economists and lecturers
09:44will be more enriched.
09:49So, if we look at it now,
09:51multilateralism is because of G20.
09:53Where was G20 held?
09:55In South Africa.
09:59We can't imagine
10:01when we became the host of G20,
10:05we were actually quite confused.
10:07At that time, in 2022,
10:09Russia was intervening Ukraine.
10:12But it turns out,
10:14now with Donald Trump,
10:16the presence of G20 members in South Africa
10:19is also decreasing.
10:21So, it means we are more convincing
10:27with the conditions at that time,
10:29America and Russia.
10:31We were worried if Russia came,
10:33America came.
10:34But it turns out, with Trump,
10:36maybe it's not G20 anymore.
10:39Maybe in the future, it will be G0.
10:42This is what we need to see.
10:44So, it's not that we don't consider the challenge.
10:48It means, if now we're talking about APBN,
10:51we're talking about Indonesia in the future,
10:54in 2045, like what was said in the previous session,
10:57we can't deny the geopolitical factors.
11:02We always see how the shift
11:06maybe it's because America is still a superpower.
11:13So, the factors are being considered.
11:17But, once again,
11:19we're still in the first three months of 2025.
11:22There are still nine months left.
11:26I'm sure this will be a challenging thing.
11:30But we still have to be optimistic.
11:33That's about it.
11:35Prof. Irwan, our model market in 2025,
11:39is getting negative news.
11:44Downgrade from Morgan Stanley,
11:47from Goldman,
11:49then our model market, year-to-date,
11:52is about minus 7 percent.
11:55And blue-chip stock is more than that.
11:58More than 10 percent.
12:00According to Prof. Irwan,
12:02how do we have to adapt the development
12:05in the current model market?
12:07Although in America,
12:09it's going down quite a bit.
12:12Even yesterday, Tesla's stock
12:15went back to the COVID level.
12:18It's going up again.
12:20What do you think, Prof. Irwan?
12:25It's not an easy question.
12:27But I'll try.
12:29Maybe I'll answer from...
12:31There's a very classic theory in finance.
12:36Markowitz's theory about portfolio theory.
12:40That allocation to risky assets,
12:44such as stock or real estate,
12:47is proportional to the expectation
12:50of the market's return,
12:54or market's excess return.
12:56It's proportional.
12:57So, if the market's return is expected to be good,
13:00then the investor will allocate
13:06the investment, the weight,
13:08more to risky assets.
13:11But it's the opposite
13:13to the volatility of the return market.
13:17So, if the market is volatile,
13:20of course people will avoid it.
13:23They will reduce the weight in the risky assets.
13:27And it's also the opposite
13:29to the risk aversion of the market players.
13:34So, if the market players are afraid of taking risks,
13:38the allocation will automatically decrease
13:42in risky assets, such as stock.
13:46So, I repeat, it's proportional to the market's return,
13:51and it's the opposite to the volatility,
13:54and it's also the opposite to the risk aversion.
14:00So, they avoid the risk.
14:02In a time like this, they will definitely avoid the risk.
14:05So, it's normal if we see the stock allocation
14:08or the risk assets decrease.
14:11So, it's a risk-off,
14:13avoiding the risk.
14:15But if we look at history,
14:20for example, last year,
14:24we had a 5% gain in the index,
14:28which is equivalent to the economic growth,
14:305% or so.
14:32So, if we see that our economic growth is positive,
14:38I'm sure our capital market will also be positive.
14:43I don't know when, but it will be like that.
14:47History also proves that after the crisis,
14:51the index will return to a higher level than before the crisis.
14:56So, in my opinion,
14:58we have to deal with this clearly,
15:01and of course,
15:03we believe that sometimes the historical data will repeat itself.
15:08I tried to calculate it,
15:10in 2004, our index was about 1,100.
15:14Sorry, in 2005, in March, it was 1,100.
15:17Now, I've calculated our return,
15:20it's almost five times.
15:22So, in a year,
15:24in this situation, the current condition is a bit bad,
15:27we can get about 25% per year.
15:30So, if we use the key word,
15:32Istiqomah.
15:33So, hold for the long run.
15:35So, it's not short term.
15:37Of course,
15:39and we also know that the index is an indicator,
15:44or even a leading indicator,
15:46of the real economic condition, the real sector.
15:48So, in my opinion,
15:50we have to calmly look at this,
15:52don't be afraid, it's normal,
15:54it has been explained,
15:55in the prediction, the allocation will decrease.
15:57But, on the other hand,
15:59don't worry, God willing,
16:01if our economy grows, the market will grow.
16:03That's what I think.
16:04Thank you, Prof. Irwan.
16:06So, I remember the title of the song, Afghan,
16:08Sadist, Patience and Discipline.
16:11Indeed, if you want to be an investor,
16:13you have to be patient and disciplined.
16:15And like the one in the corner,
16:17I'm a stock investor.
16:19Ladies and gentlemen who don't have an account,
16:21this is the director of the development of the stock market,
16:25Mr. Jeffrey.
16:27It has been explained in the opening session,
16:29the investor is already 15 million.
16:31Hopefully, 15 million includes all of us here.
16:35Okay, let's continue what Prof. Irwan has explained,
16:40next to Mr. Fahrul.
16:43So, we see that the investor is shifting.
16:46So, they are net sales in the stock market,
16:50but enter the obligation.
16:53Will this trend continue in the midst of uncertainty?
16:58And why do people enter the debt?
17:03Is it more attractive?
17:05Or maybe this is only temporary,
17:07because if we look at the price, it keeps going up.
17:10Mr. Fahrul, please.
17:13Good afternoon. Thank you, Mr. William.
17:16If the story was discussed earlier,
17:19I would like to explain why we move from stock to obligation.
17:24Actually, if we look at it, this is not a new trend.
17:27If we look at the last 10 years,
17:29indeed our market is a bond over equity market.
17:35So, in the last 7 to 10 years,
17:39the market is basically very skeptical
17:41about the growth in Indonesia,
17:44but very confident that we are stable,
17:47especially the asset class of government bond.
17:49Thank you, Mr. Arief and the finance ministry team.
17:54The stability makes the asset class of obligation interesting.
17:59And if we look at it in the short term,
18:03the condition will still be like this.
18:06Unless, or unless,
18:08if there are some things that we can see
18:12make our economic growth prospects even higher.
18:16If we look at the vision of Mr. Prabowo,
18:19Mr. Prabowo's vision is to increase economic growth to 8%.
18:25If we can see that there is a way to 8%,
18:30I think the era can change
18:34from bond over equity market,
18:36from the last 10 years,
18:38to equity over bond.
18:40But indeed the direction, if we look at it,
18:44what I believe,
18:46every president has their own style.
18:50If I say, Mr. SBY,
18:52if we look at the market,
18:54it's equity over bond market.
18:56Equity over bond, Mr. President.
18:58With the strategy, we see the economic growth was 6%.
19:02At that time, there was also a difference in the problem.
19:05The problem that is often discussed,
19:08investors in the era of Mr. SBY,
19:11there was no concern about growth,
19:13there was a concern about stability.
19:15At that time, the GDP subsidy was still high.
19:18Fiscal sustainability.
19:20At that time, there were more,
19:23if we look at global investors,
19:25who questioned Indonesia,
19:27questioned the side of obligation, the fiscal side.
19:30If growth, there is no problem.
19:32Then, in the era of Mr. Jokowi,
19:34the stance changed.
19:36So, we see the market is bond over equity.
19:39The condition is more stable on the fiscal side,
19:42but for growth,
19:44as we see in the emittance, there is not much.
19:46From what I see,
19:48if Mr. Prabowo can execute his programs,
19:52and later we see together,
19:54there is indeed a direction to higher economic growth,
19:57I see the possibility,
19:59maybe at the end of 2025 or 2026,
20:03if the economic growth is really visible,
20:06the market can change to bond over equity.
20:09Let's wait for the opportunity.
20:12Maybe a closing statement,
20:14in the midst of uncertainty,
20:17the effect of Donald Trump,
20:19and maybe the money,
20:23people are worried,
20:25what will happen in the future?
20:27Maybe Mr. Arief, Prof. Irwan, and Mr. Harul
20:31can give a closing statement in short.
20:35We are sure,
20:37if you haven't followed our APBN,
20:40please open it.
20:42We are optimistic,
20:44Indonesia is on the right track.
20:46In the midst of global uncertainty,
20:48we still maintain our prudential.
20:51Then resilience, APBN plays a role.
20:53Because in Indonesia,
20:55APBN is still the engine.
20:58But it needs patience.
21:00I will quote Ghost first.
21:02Patience has no limit.
21:05If there is a limit, it's not patience.
21:07That's all.
21:08Okay, thank you.
21:10Next, Prof. Irwan.
21:11Okay, thank you.
21:13Maybe I'm on the investor side.
21:16Maybe you already know,
21:22the best advice or strategy is
21:26to be patient in the long term.
21:30There is research,
21:32if you often trade,
21:34I'm sorry if I'm opposed,
21:36because the trading commission
21:39will be reduced.
21:41So we have to be patient in the long term.
21:44There is research that says
21:48the more we trade,
21:50the more our wealth will be destroyed.
21:53I'm sorry for the security.
21:58So it's better if you take a long term view.
22:02And there is a strategy called dollar averaging.
22:05Maybe you've heard of it.
22:07Warren Buffett even suggested
22:09if we don't have time and don't understand the stock market,
22:12buy an index.
22:14You can do it.
22:16So buying dollar averaging is regulated.
22:18Buy the same amount of money every month.
22:21If the market goes up or down,
22:23just buy it.
22:25So with what Mr. Komah said,
22:27hopefully in 20 years,
22:29we will enjoy the results.
22:31Other comments,
22:33maybe we are still waiting,
22:35as Mr. Harul said,
22:39this bond is very important,
22:41because now the foreign ownership
22:43in our bond market is small,
22:45compared to before the pandemic.
22:48So hopefully this can come back
22:50and support our money too.
22:52I think that's all. Thank you.
22:54Thank you, Mr. Irwan, for reminding us about investment.
22:57Okay, Mr. Fahrul, the last one.
22:59Okay, thank you.
23:01Maybe the closing statement from me,
23:03I will try to sum up
23:05from the conversation just now.
23:07I sum up,
23:09I remember a quote
23:11from an investor,
23:13from Sir John Templeton.
23:15It just so happens that the market is going down.
23:17I have to remind all my fellow investors,
23:20bull market is born in pessimism.
23:24Grow on skepticism,
23:26mature on optimism,
23:28and die in euphoria.
23:30And it should be,
23:32in the middle of the current pessimism,
23:34in the middle of our belief that
23:36Indonesia will go to the right direction,
23:40then let's make the condition of pessimism
23:44that is happening now
23:46as an entry point for all of you.
23:49Hopefully, we can move forward to Indonesia.
23:54Okay, let's give him a round of applause
23:56for our three amazing speakers.
23:58You reminded us about
24:00UU P2SK,
24:02then Prof. Irwan.
24:04I was called.
24:06Okay, sir.
24:08Then Prof. Irwan reminded us about
24:10long-term investment.
24:12You reminded us about theory.
24:14So, I think I have to open
24:16Prof. Irwan's old materials.
24:18The last one,
24:20Prof. Fahrul also reminded us about
24:23how this crisis condition
24:25can be an opportunity.
24:27So, maybe from me,
24:29as a closing,
24:31I give you a toast, ladies and gentlemen.
24:33Putri Titian,
24:35friend of Aura Kasih.
24:38That's enough and thank you.