IDX Channel bersama Ikatan Alumni Magister Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia (ILUNI MM FEB UI) sukses mengelar event Economic Insight 2025. Event bertajuk Towards a New Era of Indonesia's Sustainable & Inclusive Economic Growth tersebut ditujukan sebagai salah satu langkah dalam mendorong pencapaian target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sebesar 8%.
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TVTranscript
00:00:30Okay, ladies and gentlemen, this is a forum that will discuss in-depth about the prospects of the 2025 economy,
00:00:37of course, with competent sources, starting from experts, industrial actors, and regulators.
00:00:43As we know, ladies and gentlemen, the year 2025 is an important year for the world of business,
00:00:49especially with the emergence of a new government and global conditions that are not yet stable.
00:00:55On the other hand, ladies and gentlemen, there are a number of challenges and opportunities for the Indonesian capital market in 2025.
00:01:02The main challenge comes from global economic uncertainty,
00:01:06such as the potential for the escalation of trade wars, the slowdown of China's economy,
00:01:10and geopolitical dynamics that affect the flow of capital and market stability.
00:01:15There are also opportunities for the Indonesian capital market in 2025,
00:01:20which is predicted to be driven by government policy, investment, and domestic consumption.
00:01:27We will now move on to the keynote speech,
00:01:30which will be delivered by Mr. Rosan Perkasaruslani,
00:01:33Minister of Investment and Hilarization, Head of BKPM, and CEO of BPI Danantara.
00:01:39Mr. Rosan, please.
00:01:50Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh, salam, om swastiastu, nama budaya, salam kebajikan, dan salam sejahtera buat kita semua.
00:02:03If we look at this 8% growth, before we talk about this 8% growth,
00:02:10of course we have to look at where Indonesia's growth comes from, right?
00:02:14And investment, coincidentally, has the second largest contributor after domestic consumption.
00:02:23More or less, now the investment contribution is 28-29% of our economic growth.
00:02:30In addition, of course, from government spending, from our net export, and so on.
00:02:37Therefore, if we look at the structure like this,
00:02:41investment will play a very, very important role in our 8% growth.
00:02:47And if we look at the figure given to us, the Ministry of Investment from Mr. Nas,
00:02:54in the next five years, we are expected to achieve a total investment of more than Rp13 trillion.
00:03:04The expected investment figure for Indonesia, both in terms of FDI and domestic investment.
00:03:16Well, if we look at this figure, it is expected that in 2029,
00:03:21our economic growth will be 8%, with the expected investment, a total of Rp13.32 trillion,
00:03:30to be 8% by 2029.
00:03:34This figure is actually quite significant, because if we look at the last 10 years,
00:03:39from 2014 to 2024, the investment that entered Indonesia was more or less only Rp9.1 trillion.
00:03:47Well, in the next five years, the growth is expected to be Rp13 trillion,
00:03:52in order for us to achieve a growth of 8%.
00:03:55And I believe that Indonesia's growth will be sustainable and sustainable,
00:04:01if first, the human resources also grow and develop.
00:04:05Second, the industry must exist and must run,
00:04:09because there is no country that continues to grow and sustainable
00:04:14without a strong industry, or a strong industrialization that runs well.
00:04:19Because industrialization, of course, is also closely related to the creation of jobs.
00:04:25Well, from this portion, more or less, because we also often discuss the issue of hybridization,
00:04:31because my ministry is the Ministry of Investment and Hybridization,
00:04:34this hybridization contributes more or less 23% to 24% of the total investment that entered Indonesia, on average.
00:04:40And we also see that this investment will contribute the same,
00:04:45in hybridization, more or less 23% to 24%.
00:04:47How can we try to increase productivity, efficiency?
00:04:51One of the programs is the vocational training and education program,
00:04:56where the government has given incentives for companies participating in vocational education
00:05:02to get a fiscal incentive of up to 200%.
00:05:08So, the growth of, the increase of human resources is also very important
00:05:16for us to achieve a sustainable and inclusive growth.
00:05:20That's the first.
00:05:21This hybridization is not only limited to minerals or natural resources,
00:05:25but also this hybridization is expected in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, fishery,
00:05:31and also farming.
00:05:35We must continue to increase it so that it becomes an industrialization
00:05:40that gives a positive impact on the creation of jobs.
00:05:44Now, if we look at Indonesia's new energy potential,
00:05:49which is almost 3,700 gigawatts,
00:05:53only 14.43 gigawatts have been installed, so less than 1%.
00:06:01Well, this is also one of the investments that we want to increase,
00:06:08and the PLM has also estimated that from the future until 2030,
00:06:13it is expected that 79% of the new investment will go into renewable new energy.
00:06:17Although this is still a large concentration of solar, hydro, geothermal, and others.
00:06:27In this opportunity, of course, the role of Danantara will also play a very significant role
00:06:35because it is also expected that Danantara, as a government-owned body that invests,
00:06:41not only invests alone, but with the existence of Danantara,
00:06:45we want to invite national entrepreneurs, foreign investors,
00:06:49to invest with us.
00:06:52Because this also gives confidence to domestic and foreign investors to invest.
00:06:59Because if the government only puts funds, puts its equity,
00:07:04we are together to invest,
00:07:10so this also gives comfort and confidence to both domestic and foreign investors.
00:07:21On the other hand, if we look at Indonesia's economy,
00:07:26more or less almost 36-37% of the ASEAN economy.
00:07:29Our population is 40-41% of the total ASEAN population.
00:07:35So if we look at it like that, the room to grow in terms of investment is still very, very large.
00:07:40We can still do it, but of course there are still a lot of tasks that we have to address,
00:07:44and we have also addressed, but we believe that as long as we can work together,
00:07:49God willing, we can achieve it, we can run it,
00:07:52so that the 8% growth can be achieved on schedule in 2029.
00:07:58And what else can we accelerate? Why not?
00:08:02But the most important thing is how the growth is a quality growth,
00:08:07sustainable and sustainable,
00:08:09and gives a positive impact on all Indonesian people.
00:08:12Maybe that's all I can say.
00:08:14Once again, thank you.
00:08:15Wassalamualaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.
00:08:49Thank you, Mr. Arjuna.
00:09:19Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen,
00:09:21please be seated on the stage as an advisor,
00:09:26especially the President of the Department of Economic and National Development.
00:09:30Thank you, Prof.
00:09:35Then the second speaker or panelist is Mrs. Vera Iflim.
00:09:41Please, Mrs.
00:09:43As the Managing Director of CFOPT BCA TBK.
00:09:50The third speaker is Mr. Bani M. Mulya,
00:09:57as the CEO of PT Samudera Indonesia TBK.
00:10:04And the fourth is our economist,
00:10:10Mr. Fitra Faisal Astiadi.
00:10:13Please, as the Senior Economist of the Indonesian Security Council.
00:10:19Ladies and gentlemen,
00:10:28this time we have about one hour,
00:10:32with a hot topic,
00:10:37many people want to know,
00:10:39and this time we open this session,
00:10:44or this seminar,
00:10:47until oversubscribed, Prof.
00:10:49So we limit it,
00:10:52as many people want to know
00:10:57updates related to this 8% economic growth.
00:11:02Industry, yes,
00:11:03some from banking,
00:11:05from logistics,
00:11:08shipping,
00:11:09then from asset management,
00:11:12up to Prof. Bambang,
00:11:14who we already know,
00:11:16an economist,
00:11:19if Prof. Bambang is related to economy,
00:11:22he is already an icon.
00:11:24Maybe allow me, Prof,
00:11:26to start this,
00:11:28I ask,
00:11:30related to the impact of this rising Trump condition,
00:11:39which is being discussed everywhere,
00:11:41even because of Trump,
00:11:45the IHSK fell,
00:11:47many people said that.
00:11:49Maybe from the macroeconomic session,
00:11:53according to Prof. Bambang,
00:11:56what is the impact on Indonesia's economy,
00:12:01the current US condition?
00:12:03Please, Prof.
00:12:04When we joined the World Bank IMF Annual Meeting,
00:12:09the Chief Economist of both World Bank and IMF
00:12:12already gave the same conclusion,
00:12:16which is,
00:12:17the future of global economic growth is not too good.
00:12:22So it means,
00:12:23even before Trump was elected,
00:12:26the mood was gloomy.
00:12:28So many parties did not see,
00:12:31this is a bright spot,
00:12:32for global economic growth.
00:12:34Why?
00:12:35Because global economy,
00:12:38especially after COVID-19,
00:12:40requires relatively high economic growth.
00:12:43But it seems that global growth is stagnant,
00:12:46at around 3%.
00:12:48And 3% occurs mainly because
00:12:52the economy of developed countries,
00:12:56America, Japan, Korea, Western Europe,
00:13:00all record an average growth of less than 2%.
00:13:05So what can drive global economic growth,
00:13:08is the emerging market and developing economy.
00:13:12China is there, India is there,
00:13:15and Indonesia is also part of the emerging market and developing economy.
00:13:20Thank you, Prof. Bambang.
00:13:22This is our own challenge, Prof.
00:13:24Because I happen to be in the material building world,
00:13:29I just got information yesterday that
00:13:32Microsoft, which has invested the largest data center in Indonesia,
00:13:36suddenly canceled the contract,
00:13:41even though it was halfway,
00:13:43because of the instructions from Trump.
00:13:48So almost all over the world,
00:13:50only Africa is continued,
00:13:52Indonesia is affected.
00:13:54Coincidentally, I was in the building material and it was just canceled.
00:13:58Okay.
00:14:01I will go to Prof. Fera,
00:14:03related to the banking world,
00:14:07still with the same topic,
00:14:09because it seems that America's policy,
00:14:12Trump's policy,
00:14:13has an impact everywhere.
00:14:15If we look at banks now,
00:14:18especially BUMN,
00:14:20is that also an impact from the geo-economy policy in America
00:14:27that has an impact on our banks?
00:14:30Even BCA, which is probably the strongest,
00:14:33known as the strongest in banking,
00:14:36is also affected.
00:14:38Please, Prof. Fera's insight.
00:14:41Today's Trump policy,
00:14:43of course, we can feel,
00:14:46if I may, Mr. Bambang,
00:14:48correct me,
00:14:50can be seen in two directions,
00:14:52one is sectorial,
00:14:53and the other is financial.
00:14:55For banks and all of us,
00:14:57the most direct impact is in the financial sector.
00:15:01First, with Trump's policy,
00:15:03about tariffs,
00:15:05immigrant policy,
00:15:07tax cut, and so on.
00:15:10This impact will usually be accompanied by a price increase in the US.
00:15:15Then, in turn,
00:15:17inflation will also increase.
00:15:19So, if we follow the explanation of FED today,
00:15:23compared to September last year,
00:15:26which was less than six months,
00:15:28it's totally different.
00:15:30Now, FED says, hold for longer.
00:15:33Now, for us bankers,
00:15:35you can understand, right?
00:15:37Now, the gap of relations
00:15:39for customers
00:15:41who have more money,
00:15:44since last year,
00:15:47customers are also looking for higher yield.
00:15:50So, if there is more investment in customer funds,
00:15:54most of them are looking for investment in obligations,
00:15:59where the yield is higher
00:16:01than if you put savings.
00:16:03So, this also has an impact on the growth of DPK in banks.
00:16:09Last year, if we look at cash,
00:16:11the growth was 3%.
00:16:13This is one of the lowest, sir.
00:16:15And deposit growth,
00:16:17if I remember correctly,
00:16:191.3% or 1.4%.
00:16:21This is very low.
00:16:23So, the competition for liquidity
00:16:25or DPK between banks is quite tight.
00:16:27And we thought,
00:16:29in September,
00:16:31the relationship will go down.
00:16:33So, the interest rate gap will be narrowed.
00:16:36So, the funds usually grow again.
00:16:38It turns out, if the rate holds high for longer,
00:16:42the competition for liquidity will continue.
00:16:46So, the impact on the cost of funds is hard to understand.
00:16:49I see the banking industry
00:16:51for at least this year.
00:16:53The second, of course,
00:16:55we have an impact on rupiah.
00:16:59We have felt the depreciation of rupiah.
00:17:13Related to the interest rate,
00:17:16BI has lowered it to 25 basis points,
00:17:20to 5.75.
00:17:22What is the impact on the banking world?
00:17:25Is it good?
00:17:27Or do you expect more?
00:17:30I see that it should have a better impact
00:17:38on the overall growth.
00:17:42But, the flower tribe is not the only indicator
00:17:46for the demand for credit.
00:17:48If we look at the demand for credit,
00:17:50it is more than the demand itself.
00:17:53So, if the demand is good,
00:17:57the optimism is good,
00:17:59I am sure the demand
00:18:01is not only for working capital,
00:18:03but also for investment capital.
00:18:05The banking world
00:18:07is relatively challenging.
00:18:10I am going to Mr. Bani Mulya.
00:18:13About the world of shipping, logistics,
00:18:17with the dynamics mentioned earlier,
00:18:20has been presented by Prof. Bambang,
00:18:22from Ingeneral Macro,
00:18:24then banking,
00:18:26and also,
00:18:28this presentation,
00:18:30I also got an update that
00:18:32now,
00:18:34the ship supply is high.
00:18:41So, when we talk about demand and supply,
00:18:44in the world,
00:18:46the supply is also high.
00:18:48So, the ship rate is going down.
00:18:51Maybe facing this,
00:18:53and what is your forecast,
00:18:55Mr. Bani,
00:18:57in the world of shipping and logistics?
00:19:00Thank you, Mr. Martoyo,
00:19:02for the general question.
00:19:04My view
00:19:06about the Trump effect
00:19:08is from
00:19:10maybe from
00:19:12my own sector.
00:19:14Coincidentally, it is a bit different.
00:19:18I am not saying I like Trump,
00:19:20but...
00:19:22You can say you like him.
00:19:24You can say I like him.
00:19:26But in my opinion,
00:19:28the uncertainties
00:19:30that are being projected,
00:19:32or shown,
00:19:34and
00:19:36it is okay to say
00:19:38it is being played.
00:19:40I mean,
00:19:42maybe he is really good at bluffing,
00:19:44in my opinion,
00:19:46and stirring up our feelings.
00:19:48Going up and down.
00:19:50But actually,
00:19:52for the players
00:19:54in the real sector,
00:19:56in my opinion,
00:19:58it creates opportunities.
00:20:00It opens up opportunities.
00:20:02Especially in the industry,
00:20:04like us in distribution,
00:20:06or global shipping,
00:20:08if there is no crisis,
00:20:12it is boring and
00:20:14the prospect
00:20:16is sometimes gloomy.
00:20:18But with a lot of dynamics,
00:20:20a lot of uncertainties,
00:20:22and
00:20:24the need for us to
00:20:26adapt to global situation,
00:20:28geopolitical situation,
00:20:30those are the opportunities
00:20:32that are waiting for us.
00:20:34And this is what changes
00:20:36the actual from
00:20:38the forecast
00:20:40in the last few years,
00:20:42not only the forecast in the future.
00:20:44The forecast in the last few years
00:20:46are all wrong.
00:20:48It should be, as Mr. Martoyo said,
00:20:52the container shipping market
00:20:54is already oversupply.
00:20:56But it is not.
00:20:58Actually, because of
00:21:00the war yesterday,
00:21:02the conflict in Red Sea,
00:21:06there is a ship attack that is now rising again,
00:21:08it turns out
00:21:10that the container supply
00:21:12is not oversupply.
00:21:14Now, it is clear that
00:21:16the rate goes up and down,
00:21:18and it can go down too,
00:21:20but the demand for the ship is still there.
00:21:22So, as Mrs. Fera said,
00:21:24we can see that there is a demand.
00:21:26There is a global demand,
00:21:28there is a regional demand.
00:21:30And we have a shortage of ships.
00:21:32And the players have a shortage of ships.
00:21:34So, it is not predictable,
00:21:36Mr. Martoyo.
00:21:38Who will be the locomotive
00:21:40of global growth?
00:21:42That is a big question.
00:21:44Two or three years ago,
00:21:46or before COVID,
00:21:48people knew that the source of global growth
00:21:50is China.
00:21:52Unfortunately, China today
00:21:54also has a lot of domestic problems.
00:21:56So, if we also
00:21:58complain about
00:22:00decreasing purchasing power,
00:22:02the same thing happens in China.
00:22:04There are a lot of
00:22:06office space,
00:22:08so maybe there is a property bubble too,
00:22:10shopping malls that are empty, for example.
00:22:12And also,
00:22:14domestic consumption
00:22:16in China is also weakening.
00:22:18So, China itself is also in a position
00:22:20to reposition
00:22:22its economy so that it can
00:22:24still grow by 4-5 percent.
00:22:26So,
00:22:28when America's role
00:22:30is a bit absent,
00:22:32people start to look at India.
00:22:34We observe politically now,
00:22:36the Prime Minister of India,
00:22:38Modi,
00:22:40if we observe,
00:22:42he is getting more and more confident.
00:22:44Why?
00:22:46Because he knows that everybody looks at India
00:22:48as one of the
00:22:50sources of global growth.
00:22:52And coincidentally,
00:22:54in fact, the Indian diaspora
00:22:56dominates the world of finance,
00:22:58the world of technology,
00:23:00and everywhere
00:23:02in various parts of the world.
00:23:04So, from there, we can see that
00:23:06the impact of Trump
00:23:08will be seen
00:23:10when he has to
00:23:12compete with emerging
00:23:14markets and develop the economy
00:23:16outside China.
00:23:18How about India?
00:23:20How about us in Indonesia?
00:23:22Even though we may experience,
00:23:24we are actually a trade surplus
00:23:26to America. So, for America, we are a trade deficit.
00:23:28And maybe,
00:23:30we have entered into
00:23:32the target of countries that will be
00:23:34hit by high income tariffs.
00:23:36Even though we are still
00:23:38enjoying the so-called
00:23:40generalized system preference.
00:23:42So, as a conclusion,
00:23:44it can be said that
00:23:46what is happening these days,
00:23:48especially in our stock market,
00:23:50or in the global market,
00:23:52or in the exchange rate,
00:23:54it is happening
00:23:56because
00:23:58there is uncertainty.
00:24:00And no matter what,
00:24:02when the world is uncertain,
00:24:04even though America
00:24:06does not want to be a leader,
00:24:08in the end, the so-called investor,
00:24:10both in the money market
00:24:12and in the obligation,
00:24:14will do
00:24:16capital flight back to America,
00:24:18back to the US dollar,
00:24:20or back to
00:24:22the UST bill.
00:24:24So, these two are the safe haven.
00:24:26Let's go to Mr. Fitra.
00:24:28It means,
00:24:30from the
00:24:32analysis side,
00:24:34from the analysis,
00:24:36then from the macro side,
00:24:38maybe you can give
00:24:40an image or insight
00:24:42related to
00:24:44earlier.
00:24:46It means we want to check,
00:24:48is it different? It turns out that Mr. Bani had a slightly different opinion.
00:24:50But I like it, because
00:24:52it turns out that not all industries
00:24:54have a negative impact.
00:24:56It turns out there is a positive.
00:24:58Maybe, who knows, Mr. Fitra,
00:25:00is it different from Mr. Bani?
00:25:02Or do you have other opinions?
00:25:04I am very positive.
00:25:06So,
00:25:08Mr. Bambang also said
00:25:10that Trump
00:25:12in November
00:25:14has caused
00:25:16panic.
00:25:18I brand this as
00:25:20an effect of Trump policy.
00:25:22So,
00:25:24the policy is still in the mind,
00:25:26but it has
00:25:28caused concern.
00:25:30Why? Because people can always
00:25:32compare with what is done in the first period.
00:25:34So, in November
00:25:36to December,
00:25:38we see how
00:25:40the pressure on emerging markets
00:25:42is very significant.
00:25:44One of them is because there is a perception
00:25:46that the growth of the United States
00:25:48will not be okay.
00:25:50First, it means it sucks
00:25:52resources from emerging markets,
00:25:54into the equity markets.
00:25:56Then, at the same time,
00:25:58if I remember, on December 19th,
00:26:00it was cut,
00:26:02the FED, 25 basis points.
00:26:04When the rate was cut,
00:26:06the USD 10-year rate was supposed to go down.
00:26:08But what happened was
00:26:10it went up. Why?
00:26:12Because even the FED was already
00:26:14concerned
00:26:16that Trump will cause
00:26:18inflation.
00:26:20Therefore, he issued a kind of
00:26:22warning that this year,
00:26:24in 2025,
00:26:26the FED will probably
00:26:28not cut the rate
00:26:30by 5 times, maximum 2 times.
00:26:32And that's what makes the
00:26:34trajectory of the USD 10-year rate increase
00:26:36so it sucks from emerging markets.
00:26:38Plus, there is
00:26:40ultra-expansionary policy of Trump
00:26:42that actually invites
00:26:44the FED to go there.
00:26:46After the inauguration
00:26:48on January 20th,
00:26:50Trump was also accompanied by
00:26:52Sohn and Altman,
00:26:54a commitment of USD 500 billion.
00:26:56And Trump said,
00:26:58usually, USD 500 billion
00:27:00this big usually goes to China,
00:27:02to emerging markets. Now it goes to
00:27:04the United States.
00:27:06So he branded it as
00:27:08a new growth center.
00:27:10And since the beginning of the year,
00:27:12foreign funds have shorted emerging markets,
00:27:14he wants to go to
00:27:16the United States.
00:27:18So that's what makes the pressure.
00:27:22But what about the future?
00:27:24I am more positive.
00:27:26There is one thing that
00:27:28maybe not many people know.
00:27:30What is China's position towards Trump?
00:27:32Three months before Trump was elected,
00:27:34I met a source that I can't mention,
00:27:36a native Chinese,
00:27:38who represents the government.
00:27:40Then I asked, do you actually prefer Biden or Trump?
00:27:42At that time, Harris hadn't appeared yet.
00:27:44He said,
00:27:46I actually
00:27:48prefer Trump.
00:27:50He wasn't talking about me.
00:27:52Why? Because we know
00:27:54what kind of person Trump is.
00:27:56I don't know who Biden is.
00:27:58So we know.
00:28:00And if we connect the dots,
00:28:02Trump,
00:28:04before the inauguration,
00:28:06he had re-evaluated the TikTok ban
00:28:08that was previously banned by Biden.
00:28:10He opened it.
00:28:12Then on the 20th of January,
00:28:14he didn't mention China at all.
00:28:16And even when he made
00:28:18a 25% tariff to Canada,
00:28:2025% tariff to Mexico,
00:28:2210% tariff to China,
00:28:24who responded?
00:28:26Justin Trudeau and Mexico.
00:28:28But China said, let's give it to WTO first.
00:28:30Even though there are retaliation.
00:28:32From this side, I see that
00:28:34in the end, if there is one picture,
00:28:36people holding hands like this,
00:28:38there are two perceptions.
00:28:40He wants to fight a pot or a deal.
00:28:42Well,
00:28:44I go back to my experience back then.
00:28:46When I became Jubir Mendak,
00:28:48at the end of 2020,
00:28:50I made a limited trade deal
00:28:52with Trump's representative.
00:28:54But it didn't work because Biden was the one who chose.
00:28:56What does it mean?
00:28:58Trump is a bilateral person.
00:29:00It's about business in the end.
00:29:02He has a lot of blackpink members.
00:29:04But actually, he is the one who carries out
00:29:06what was said in the campaign.
00:29:08According to Mr. Dede,
00:29:10Mr. Dede once said,
00:29:12after 6 months, the US president is back to normal.
00:29:14Trump carried out what was said
00:29:16until it was over.
00:29:18So, it might be a challenge
00:29:20as well as an opportunity.
00:29:22So, Mr. Fitra's prediction is
00:29:24just a short term?
00:29:26Or Trump will stick around
00:29:28until
00:29:30it's over,
00:29:32the policy will be like this?
00:29:34Global pressure will still be there.
00:29:36But we still have a chance,
00:29:38Mr. Martoyo.
00:29:40Because, for example,
00:29:42when it comes to China,
00:29:44we have seen that
00:29:46the products are not held back.
00:29:48As a Ph.D.
00:29:50in International Economics,
00:29:52fortunately I got a recommendation
00:29:54from Prof. Bambang,
00:29:56so I can get a Ph.D.
00:29:58in International Economics.
00:30:00If we study it,
00:30:02there is a potential
00:30:04from the trading side
00:30:06to enter Indonesia.
00:30:08How? When Mr. Prabowo came to China,
00:30:10in the W.A. Group,
00:30:12what do we want to do?
00:30:14What do we want to do?
00:30:16One of them is, if China can't enter,
00:30:18let's just go through Indonesia.
00:30:20We can build here and export.
00:30:22I think that's the right strategy.
00:30:24Why? Indonesia is not yet perceived
00:30:26as a threat to the U.S.
00:30:28Do you know why?
00:30:30I'm a football observer.
00:30:32In 2018, I was a football commentator.
00:30:34So, I like to observe.
00:30:36But I can't work.
00:30:38I just like to observe.
00:30:40So, when Mr. Prabowo called
00:30:42in November to Trump,
00:30:44he said, yes sir, yes sir.
00:30:46After that, a full article was published
00:30:48in The Economist.
00:30:50What is the President of Indonesia doing?
00:30:52Yes sir, yes sir, to the U.S., to Trump.
00:30:54Economists just don't like Trump.
00:30:56But I think this is the right strategy.
00:30:58Mr. Prabowo, alpha male.
00:31:00This is Trump, alpha male.
00:31:02Alpha male should meet alpha male.
00:31:04It's hard to meet.
00:31:06But Mr. Prabowo is a Javanese.
00:31:08The second one is strategist.
00:31:10So, where does he want to go?
00:31:12To the U.S. market.
00:31:14So, lowering himself,
00:31:16perceiving himself as not a threat
00:31:18to the U.S.,
00:31:20in terms of data, we are not a threat.
00:31:22Our deficit is one of the smallest.
00:31:24The biggest, if you want to see,
00:31:26is Vietnam.
00:31:28It will be Trump's target.
00:31:30But Indonesia, after that,
00:31:32he said, yes sir, yes sir,
00:31:34you can meet me anytime, said Trump.
00:31:36Because he sees Indonesia is not a threat.
00:31:38So, that's what Mr. Prabowo did.
00:31:40And you know what?
00:31:42In a subliminal way,
00:31:44on his table,
00:31:46there's a Chinese magazine.
00:31:48What does it mean?
00:31:50In 100 days,
00:31:52Mr. Prabowo's initial plan,
00:31:5430 days abroad,
00:31:569 countries,
00:31:5819.5 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:00Can you imagine that?
00:32:0219.5 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:04What was our investment need?
00:32:0613.5 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:08At that time, I was asked by Mr. Penas,
00:32:10this is Mr. Bambang's institution,
00:32:12to calculate 8 percent,
00:32:14I did it from 6 core infrastructures.
00:32:16Energy, transportation, housing,
00:32:18water resources, water sanitation,
00:32:20and one more thing,
00:32:22ICT.
00:32:2410 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:26If it's a subliminal, it's 13.5 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:28But this is 6 core infrastructures, 10 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:30Maximum we can invest from domestic,
00:32:323 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:347 billion U.S. dollars.
00:32:36It means we need to get closer to everything.
00:32:38And Indonesia,
00:32:40my vision is regional ASEAN.
00:32:44ASEAN is always in the middle.
00:32:46It's not to the left and not to the right.
00:32:48And because we can seize all the opportunities
00:32:50that are available in the world,
00:32:52we can seize all the opportunities.
00:32:54What's more interesting,
00:32:56when I said this to the English ambassador,
00:32:58eh, say it again.
00:33:00Anyway, there is one ambassador,
00:33:02when I said,
00:33:04this is an investment from China,
00:33:0610 billion U.S. dollars.
00:33:08But do you remember,
00:33:10this is Mr. Harul,
00:33:128.5 billion U.S. dollars from us.
00:33:14What does it mean?
00:33:16Subliminally,
00:33:18what does it mean?
00:33:20Indonesia is being seized.
00:33:22But what's the situation?
00:33:24There should be a middle ground.
00:33:26But we can discuss it later.
00:33:28Okay. Interesting.
00:33:30Thank you, the speakers,
00:33:32for the first round.
00:33:46We talked about challenges.
00:33:48It turns out, there is an opportunity.
00:33:50And what kind of opportunity
00:33:52that can be utilized?
00:33:54I go to Prof. Bambang.
00:33:56With this situation,
00:33:58what can be done by
00:34:00the Indonesian government
00:34:02to seize the opportunity
00:34:04in the midst of the existing challenges
00:34:06for all countries?
00:34:08First, maybe,
00:34:10about Indonesia's political position.
00:34:12Foreign policy, I mean.
00:34:16Many were worried
00:34:18when we registered
00:34:20as a member of BRICS.
00:34:22Why? Because BRICS is,
00:34:24first, actually,
00:34:26BRICS is suitable for us.
00:34:28Because it is an emerging market
00:34:30and developing economy.
00:34:32There is no advanced country joining BRICS.
00:34:34But then,
00:34:36there is China,
00:34:38which is America's rival
00:34:40in economy and technology.
00:34:42There is Russia,
00:34:44which is a political and military rival.
00:34:46Because registering as a member of BRICS
00:34:48is very sensitive.
00:34:50But actually,
00:34:52this is Indonesia's strategy
00:34:54to truly create
00:34:56a non-block position.
00:34:58Actually, sometimes,
00:35:00some people assume,
00:35:02if I am in an international forum,
00:35:04most of the time,
00:35:06I will meet western countries.
00:35:08They will say that
00:35:10Indonesia is actually
00:35:12losing opportunities
00:35:14because Indonesia is always trying to be neutral.
00:35:16Whereas, if Indonesia
00:35:18is clearly in a position
00:35:20to be more leaning
00:35:22towards the west,
00:35:24actually, Indonesia can grow faster,
00:35:26can get bigger investments,
00:35:28and so on.
00:35:30But we cannot,
00:35:32just by thinking too pragmatically,
00:35:34say that Indonesia is already
00:35:36in one of the hubs.
00:35:38I see that registering as a member of BRICS
00:35:40is done when Indonesia
00:35:42is in the process of
00:35:44accessing OECD.
00:35:46Even though OECD is clear.
00:35:48OECD is
00:35:50a group of
00:35:52countries that are
00:35:54classified as advanced countries.
00:35:56And these advanced countries are
00:35:58in the western definition.
00:36:00So, the rules
00:36:02or measures in OECD
00:36:04are very different from BRICS.
00:36:06In BRICS, there are no rules,
00:36:08no standards.
00:36:10Registering as a member of OECD is actually very difficult.
00:36:12Because
00:36:14we need at least 5 years
00:36:16to become a member of OECD.
00:36:18So that we can declare
00:36:20that we are in the process of becoming an advanced country.
00:36:22If we are in OECD.
00:36:24Whereas BRICS is more like
00:36:26an incentive.
00:36:28So that the countries that are
00:36:30in the same situation
00:36:32can unite their views
00:36:34and unite their strengths as an emerging market.
00:36:38So, when you asked
00:36:40how we can take advantage of the opportunity,
00:36:42this is the biggest opportunity we can take advantage of.
00:36:44By strengthening our alliance
00:36:46in BRICS,
00:36:48but also not forgetting
00:36:50our efforts in OECD.
00:36:52So, the point is, the government must be able to
00:36:54really say non-block
00:36:56in terms of maintaining
00:36:58balance between
00:37:00our activities in BRICS
00:37:02and
00:37:04what we want to do in OECD.
00:37:06So, there must be progress in both.
00:37:08So that all parties can see that
00:37:10Indonesia wants to be
00:37:12its own strength, actually.
00:37:14Not this one, sir.
00:37:16When in the middle,
00:37:18I would say,
00:37:20slowly,
00:37:22or from there,
00:37:24look at the middle,
00:37:26then from the side, look at the middle,
00:37:28so that it's not optimal, or is this the best choice?
00:37:30In my opinion, first of all,
00:37:32in the Basic Law,
00:37:34we have cleared that
00:37:36we must be non-block, non-aligned.
00:37:38Not biased.
00:37:40And then,
00:37:42each of us will see
00:37:44whether Indonesia is
00:37:46serious about joining us or not.
00:37:48But I think,
00:37:50as Fitra said,
00:37:52in the end, Indonesia will
00:37:54be, no matter what,
00:37:56will be the focus.
00:37:58We cannot say that Indonesia is
00:38:00the attraction of the world.
00:38:02But, the potential of Indonesia,
00:38:04if we look at it,
00:38:06the simplest is
00:38:08its natural resources.
00:38:10It's the largest city,
00:38:12the richest city in the world.
00:38:14And don't forget, the market.
00:38:16With the population,
00:38:18even though we are far below
00:38:20India or China,
00:38:22but with
00:38:24280 to 300 million,
00:38:26the population,
00:38:28the purchasing power is relatively still increasing.
00:38:30It will still be the concern
00:38:32of many countries,
00:38:34both on the side of
00:38:36Western countries,
00:38:39and don't forget that
00:38:41when we look at
00:38:43the potential of global growth,
00:38:45as I said at the beginning,
00:38:47most of the global growth
00:38:49is contributed by the BRICS.
00:38:51The OECD,
00:38:53the status is already a rich country,
00:38:55but like
00:38:57the people who play this stock market,
00:38:59sometimes they don't care
00:39:01about the bottom line,
00:39:03don't care about profitability.
00:39:05Do you see the group, the revenue?
00:39:07So what does it mean?
00:39:09What will be the concern in the future,
00:39:11this is definitely on the side of BRICS.
00:39:13But America will feel,
00:39:15or Western countries will feel,
00:39:17this is not appropriate. Why?
00:39:19Because they also, for example,
00:39:21I remember when Indonesia
00:39:23was invited as a key partner
00:39:25in the OECD,
00:39:27we were invited with
00:39:29India, China, Brazil, if I'm not mistaken.
00:39:31It turns out that
00:39:33those who enthusiastically
00:39:35joined the OECD,
00:39:37if I'm not mistaken, we were the only ones who succeeded.
00:39:39India, it seems,
00:39:41half and half, China even
00:39:43once sent a delegation once or twice,
00:39:45after that they were not too interested
00:39:47to join the OECD.
00:39:49But who is it that,
00:39:51in essence, doesn't know China?
00:39:53China, in my opinion,
00:39:55if we talk about
00:39:57the economic miracle theory,
00:40:01actually the economic miracle,
00:40:03the economic miracle comes from Asia,
00:40:05namely Japan and Korea,
00:40:07the next miracle potential
00:40:09still comes from Asia,
00:40:11and it starts from China.
00:40:13This is probably what makes
00:40:15the OECD or advanced countries uncomfortable.
00:40:17Because why
00:40:19the next advanced country candidates,
00:40:21high income countries,
00:40:23are not from their group.
00:40:25Previously, Japan and Korea were
00:40:27part of them.
00:40:29Why did this come from China?
00:40:31Moreover, we know that China
00:40:33has a different democracy.
00:40:35They don't implement democracy
00:40:37like western countries.
00:40:39Okay.
00:40:41So the strategy for us
00:40:43to join the OECD and BRIC
00:40:45is the right strategy,
00:40:47and it will create opportunities in the future.
00:40:49Yes, the point is to expand.
00:40:51Because,
00:40:53both Mr. Rosan
00:40:55and Mr. Fitra added,
00:40:57when we want to encourage
00:40:59domestic economic growth,
00:41:01we need
00:41:03a big investment.
00:41:05Mr. Rosan said Rp. 13 trillion.
00:41:07It is clear
00:41:09that the Rp. 3 trillion
00:41:11or the minority comes from domestic.
00:41:13It means that the majority
00:41:15must come from the FDI.
00:41:17Well, the FDI, we can't say
00:41:19that the FDI is enough from America.
00:41:21Because sometimes we also
00:41:23see it realistically.
00:41:25Is there any American investment
00:41:27in Indonesia recently?
00:41:29There is almost none.
00:41:31You just said that Microsoft
00:41:33wants to create a data center,
00:41:35but it was cancelled.
00:41:37Moreover, we hope for a big investment.
00:41:39Even though sometimes there are many problems,
00:41:41from China, it is very aggressive.
00:41:43And we also see
00:41:45the potential of others.
00:41:47So, in my opinion,
00:41:49because we need a big investment,
00:41:51the point is we have to be kind to everyone.
00:41:53We have to be friendly to everyone.
00:41:55Whoever can invest,
00:41:57and one more thing,
00:41:59we also have to maintain
00:42:01our trade balance.
00:42:03We have to export more
00:42:05to create surplus.
00:42:07What is the purpose of export?
00:42:09If we look at it,
00:42:11there are 5 main export countries.
00:42:13China is there.
00:42:15India is there.
00:42:17America is there.
00:42:19Japan is there.
00:42:21And one more thing, ASEAN.
00:42:23We have to maintain a relative balance
00:42:25between the Greek and the so-called
00:42:27Western world.
00:42:31It is very clear that Indonesia's position
00:42:33is that there are many friends,
00:42:35so that the fortune is smooth.
00:42:37Related to banking,
00:42:39related to this 8% growth,
00:42:41what is the strategy
00:42:43that BCA
00:42:45will do
00:42:47in the future
00:42:49to support
00:42:51the government program
00:42:53for this 8% growth?
00:42:55What is it, ma'am?
00:42:57I will continue a little bit earlier.
00:42:59About how
00:43:01Indonesia needs to create
00:43:03a good investment environment
00:43:05so that
00:43:07it can attract the FDI to Indonesia.
00:43:09One of them is
00:43:11legal certainty.
00:43:13And what is the process?
00:43:15We compare it
00:43:17between Vietnam, Malaysia,
00:43:19and so on.
00:43:21As Mr.Rossan said,
00:43:23Indonesia does not get
00:43:25as much investment
00:43:27as China.
00:43:29If China wants to move out of China.
00:43:31Of course, it is also a PR for us.
00:43:33For us as a bank,
00:43:35whatever FDI that comes in,
00:43:37as far as creating job opportunities,
00:43:39it is a very positive thing for Indonesia.
00:43:41Secondly,
00:43:43I think we also have to
00:43:45look at
00:43:47the economy in Indonesia.
00:43:49Today, if we look at
00:43:51the bank financing
00:43:53to the manufacturing sector,
00:43:55in the last 10 years,
00:43:57it has dropped from 18%
00:43:59to 15%.
00:44:01For us, this is a concern.
00:44:03Because manufacturing
00:44:05is a sector that
00:44:07for us as a bank,
00:44:09is one of the pillars
00:44:11that we have to
00:44:13finance.
00:44:15To create job opportunities.
00:44:17Many days ago,
00:44:19the manufacturing sector's
00:44:21financing decreased,
00:44:23many of them became traders.
00:44:25So the number of traders
00:44:27increased.
00:44:29And if we compare these two sectors,
00:44:31of course, the capacity
00:44:33to create job opportunities
00:44:35is very different.
00:44:37Of course, we have to support
00:44:39the government policies
00:44:41that can incentivize
00:44:43the manufacturing sector in Indonesia
00:44:45not to decrease.
00:44:47It should increase.
00:44:49In addition to the development of technology today.
00:44:51I see this as
00:44:53one thing,
00:44:55if I may say,
00:44:57it is a task for us.
00:44:59Between us as a bank,
00:45:01and also from the government.
00:45:03We are concerned
00:45:05if the manufacturing sector
00:45:07is decreasing.
00:45:09The next one,
00:45:11renewable energy.
00:45:13Sustainable financing.
00:45:15This is also an opportunity
00:45:17for banks.
00:45:19It is actually a competition.
00:45:21Banks want to finance
00:45:23the so-called sustainable financing sectors.
00:45:25In BCA, in the last five years,
00:45:27from the total credit
00:45:29that we have distributed,
00:45:3125% is
00:45:33sustainable financing.
00:45:35It keeps growing every year.
00:45:37Last year, it grew 12.5%.
00:45:39Compared to green energy,
00:45:41hydropower, and so on.
00:45:43We also want to finance,
00:45:45but the demand is not big.
00:45:47I think we need
00:45:49good policies.
00:45:51Incentives that can support
00:45:53areas like this.
00:45:55So, permitting
00:45:57actually, the demand is not big.
00:45:59And
00:46:01we hope, hopefully,
00:46:03in the next five years,
00:46:05with our success
00:46:07with FDI,
00:46:09and the development of our economy,
00:46:11the demand for sustainable financing
00:46:13we hope will grow.
00:46:15So,
00:46:17some of the things I see,
00:46:19PR in our country,
00:46:21we also have to pay attention to.
00:46:23The last but not least,
00:46:25what banks always observe
00:46:27is the middle class growth
00:46:29in Indonesia.
00:46:31This is something that, in my opinion,
00:46:33we cannot forget.
00:46:35If we don't pay attention to this,
00:46:37we'll lose this opportunity.
00:46:39Not long
00:46:41from now.
00:46:43If we believe that the GDP per capita
00:46:45of Indonesia,
00:46:47in the next five years,
00:46:49will grow,
00:46:51the middle class,
00:46:53their standard of living
00:46:55will also increase.
00:46:57Today, we also started to finance
00:47:01schools that are expanding
00:47:03outside of Jakarta.
00:47:05Especially private schools.
00:47:07Why?
00:47:09If the GDP per capita increases,
00:47:11the standard of living
00:47:13will also increase.
00:47:15They want their children
00:47:17to go to a better school.
00:47:19So, that's also an opportunity business.
00:47:21We also see a lot of malls
00:47:23starting to open outside of Java.
00:47:25Expansion to outside of Java.
00:47:27Because of the GDP growth
00:47:29in several cities outside of Java
00:47:31is much higher
00:47:33than in Java.
00:47:35We summarized it in three years.
00:47:37So, after post-COVID,
00:47:39we thought about the next expansion,
00:47:41where will the GDP be?
00:47:43One of them is outside of Java.
00:47:45That's why
00:47:47our GDP growth
00:47:49for SMEs, including consumers,
00:47:51in Java is also
00:47:53double digit.
00:47:55So, I see
00:47:57we have to be balanced.
00:47:59Don't forget,
00:48:01in Indonesia, we need manufacturing.
00:48:03Because that's the area
00:48:05that can create
00:48:07a wider work field,
00:48:09which we need.
00:48:11Thank you, Mrs. Fera.
00:48:13It turns out
00:48:17renewable energy,
00:48:19education, manufacturing
00:48:21will be a future trigger
00:48:23for us to help
00:48:25growth
00:48:27sustainable.
00:48:41Back to logistics, Mr. Bhani.
00:48:43Maybe,
00:48:45related to
00:48:47our strategy for the future,
00:48:49related to
00:48:51welcoming this 8%
00:48:53growth,
00:48:55what's being prepared?
00:48:57What's the game, Mr. Bhani?
00:49:01I'll continue
00:49:03from what you said before.
00:49:07In my sector,
00:49:09I have an
00:49:11optimistic outlook.
00:49:15Maybe,
00:49:17I'm sorry if I'm wrong,
00:49:19Mrs. Fera,
00:49:21but I think,
00:49:23the BCA
00:49:25financing
00:49:27for manufacturing is decreasing.
00:49:29Maybe because,
00:49:31industrially,
00:49:33the percentage is decreasing.
00:49:35Maybe because
00:49:37there are many FDIs,
00:49:39my clients as well,
00:49:41they don't need
00:49:43BCA financing, unfortunately.
00:49:45I mean, the big Chinese investment,
00:49:47they don't go to you.
00:49:49They make smelter,
00:49:51they make a lot of manufacturing,
00:49:53they create thousands of jobs.
00:49:55I've seen it.
00:49:57I've seen they created even
00:49:59port.
00:50:01Now, I can say, the best port in Indonesia
00:50:03doesn't belong to
00:50:05BUMN or Pelindo
00:50:07or what's seen in Tanjung Priok.
00:50:09It's built by them.
00:50:11Built by them in smelter.
00:50:13I'm amazed to see it.
00:50:15I'm surprised.
00:50:17But they don't need financing like us.
00:50:19For us,
00:50:21I used to, thank you Mrs. Vera,
00:50:23make a port in Ibu Financing.
00:50:25I made a port in Kalimantan
00:50:27financed by BCA.
00:50:29But these Chinese investors,
00:50:31they don't need
00:50:33local banks.
00:50:35They even have
00:50:37presence from
00:50:39their own banks that
00:50:41go to the financial market,
00:50:43the financial sector in Indonesia.
00:50:45The Chinese banks,
00:50:47the Japanese banks,
00:50:49the Korean banks are now
00:50:51all over Indonesia.
00:50:53With their own
00:50:55cheaper probably cost of fund
00:50:57in technology.
00:50:59So,
00:51:01I'm not too pessimistic
00:51:03seeing it from global view.
00:51:05Maybe if it's from BCA,
00:51:07I have to compete with them.
00:51:09But,
00:51:11there is.
00:51:13I see that
00:51:15there are a lot of FDI.
00:51:17So, earlier,
00:51:19what Mr. Marto said,
00:51:21Trump and Mr. Fitra said
00:51:23there will be a coma.
00:51:25I don't think so.
00:51:27Trump, how can an Islamic person understand coma?
00:51:29For me,
00:51:31the important thing is Mr. Prabowo
00:51:33who is in coma.
00:51:35Okay. Thank you.
00:51:37Because, Mr. Prabowo,
00:51:39God willing,
00:51:41at the beginning of this government,
00:51:43I see the commitment
00:51:45and gesture
00:51:47from the new government,
00:51:49Mr. Prabowo,
00:51:51positive.
00:51:53I myself
00:51:55experienced
00:51:57we invested in the port.
00:51:59So, it's not just
00:52:01gossip.
00:52:03Mr. Prabowo said we will give
00:52:05a chance to the private sector.
00:52:07Earlier, Mr. Rosan repeated,
00:52:09we will give more role to the private sector.
00:52:11We just got it. It's secure.
00:52:13Through tender and so on.
00:52:15But for the private allocation,
00:52:17the construction of a new port
00:52:19in Patimban, West Java.
00:52:21And this is full private.
00:52:23So, hopefully,
00:52:25this is just the beginning.
00:52:27The port won't be built in one, two months,
00:52:29or one year.
00:52:31It will be a long-term project.
00:52:33And if that happens,
00:52:35as a picture,
00:52:37one Patimban port for gold mine,
00:52:39our investment can reach USD 1 billion.
00:52:41And it's true,
00:52:43the majority is,
00:52:45we are a partner in a consortium,
00:52:47but we are a minority.
00:52:49The majority are foreign investors.
00:52:51The majority are European investors
00:52:53and Japanese investors.
00:52:55Most probably, they don't also
00:52:57look for BCA funding.
00:52:59Because they have their own
00:53:01bankers that they bring
00:53:03their own financing
00:53:05backup.
00:53:07I'm quite optimistic
00:53:09about Indonesia.
00:53:11In my opinion,
00:53:13it's still attractive
00:53:15because our market is
00:53:17one of the biggest market in the world.
00:53:21And as you said,
00:53:23I think our consumer and middle class
00:53:25are quite strong.
00:53:27I don't see, for logistic players
00:53:29like us,
00:53:31we are most afraid of recession.
00:53:33If the volume is down,
00:53:35we don't see any signs of that.
00:53:41That there is a shifting problem
00:53:43from purchasing power
00:53:45or there is a change,
00:53:47we have customers
00:53:49in consumer goods,
00:53:51the purchasing power is changing.
00:53:53But actually,
00:53:55the demand is still there,
00:53:57as you said before.
00:53:59In Indonesia, the demand
00:54:01is still strong.
00:54:03Investment is coming in.
00:54:05Just now, I came here,
00:54:07there was a traffic jam.
00:54:09Usually, I only see bluebird.
00:54:11Now, I see taxis
00:54:13everywhere.
00:54:15So many.
00:54:17If there is no market,
00:54:19it won't come in, sir.
00:54:21For taxis only,
00:54:23they still dare to enter the big ones.
00:54:25And one more thing,
00:54:27there is
00:54:29a relocation indication, sir.
00:54:33We, in Pelayaran,
00:54:35experienced that many
00:54:37Chinese companies,
00:54:39with Trump's policy,
00:54:41which they predicted from last year,
00:54:43they approached us.
00:54:45Let's join. Let's make a company here.
00:54:47You are the majority,
00:54:49but we transfer technology.
00:54:51But we can sell ships
00:54:53for Indonesian market, and we can export from Indonesia.
00:54:55Not seen as
00:54:57Chinese products.
00:54:59This is also, Vietnam
00:55:01Indonesia or Vietnam,
00:55:03VINFAS car in Vietnam is big.
00:55:05Is it Vietnam technology?
00:55:07Isn't it a relocation from China too?
00:55:09So, there is
00:55:11an exciting
00:55:13dynamic with
00:55:15China trade war
00:55:17is blocked,
00:55:19they also move to other countries.
00:55:21And hopefully, Indonesia becomes
00:55:23one of the countries they want.
00:55:25At least in my sector,
00:55:27there are many requests
00:55:29for them to start
00:55:31building or moving
00:55:33manufacturing facilities
00:55:35to Indonesia.
00:55:37Thank you, Mr. Bani.
00:55:39That gives
00:55:41hope, optimism
00:55:43from various
00:55:45in the current media
00:55:47that tend to be pessimistic.
00:55:51Maybe this time,
00:55:53closing from Mr. Fitra.
00:55:55My question is this.
00:55:59How sure
00:56:03about
00:56:05the 8% growth
00:56:07will be achieved?
00:56:09And in what year
00:56:11from Mr. Fitra's analysis,
00:56:13will it be achievable?
00:56:17Okay, thank you.
00:56:19So, I remember
00:56:212015 or 2016,
00:56:23I was also asked to
00:56:25calculate for economic growth 7%.
00:56:27But at that time,
00:56:29I saw it through trade path.
00:56:31In trade path, my calculation,
00:56:33the minimum export growth
00:56:35in manufacturing,
00:56:37we talked about manufacturing, not commodities.
00:56:39In manufacturing, it was at least 9.8%.
00:56:41With I-Corps,
00:56:43it was 5.12%.
00:56:45That was in 2016.
00:56:47But now, the president
00:56:49asked for 8%.
00:56:51Maybe if there is another president, it will be 9%.
00:56:53But it's okay.
00:56:55If you want to reach the sky,
00:56:57even if you fall,
00:56:59you're still among the stars.
00:57:01So, to achieve 8% economic growth,
00:57:03of course it's very challenging.
00:57:05It's difficult.
00:57:07Because the average economic growth
00:57:09in the last 10 years,
00:57:11minus pandemic years, is 5.07%.
00:57:13Mr. Jokowi has built
00:57:15various infrastructures.
00:57:17But we need another plus factor.
00:57:21So, according to...
00:57:23my book, in 2016,
00:57:25published in 2017,
00:57:27the title is
00:57:29Trade Strategy Indonesia, From Regionalization to Regionalism.
00:57:31There is one chapter,
00:57:33specifically
00:57:35about growth.
00:57:37There are at least three pillars.
00:57:39The first pillar is infrastructure,
00:57:41which has been run for 10 years by Mr. Jokowi.
00:57:43The other two pillars are
00:57:45institution pillar and also
00:57:47SDM pillar.
00:57:49We have...
00:57:51We can't work on infrastructure anymore.
00:57:53It's given to private sector.
00:57:55Where is the focus now?
00:57:57Institutional reconciliation and SDM reconciliation.
00:57:59In my other book,
00:58:01the title is
00:58:03The Economic Resurgence of ASEAN.
00:58:05It was published last year.
00:58:07I made it specifically about
00:58:09how ASEAN got out of the pandemic.
00:58:11One of the things
00:58:13that can be seen from there is
00:58:15economic resurgence is
00:58:17how absorptive capacity,
00:58:19how local absorptive capacity
00:58:21can be supported.
00:58:23Because absorptive capacity
00:58:25is supported by those three pillars.
00:58:29Actually, our economic growth,
00:58:31in my other book,
00:58:33Globalization, Productivity, and Production Network in ASEAN,
00:58:35in chapter 3, How to Escape from Middle Income Trap,
00:58:37actually,
00:58:39we need only 6.5 percent.
00:58:41Until 2038.
00:58:43I think it's the same with
00:58:45Prof. Bambang.
00:58:476 to 6.5 percent.
00:58:49On average.
00:58:518 percent,
00:58:53if we don't push it to 8 percent,
00:58:55it means 6.5 percent
00:58:57is not enough.
00:58:59So, this is an extra effort
00:59:01that we have to do.
00:59:03Yesterday, there was a little
00:59:05discussion
00:59:07between Ministry of Finance and Prof. Nas
00:59:09about the target
00:59:11until 2008 or 2009.
00:59:13Can it be 8 percent?
00:59:15As usual, 5 percent.
00:59:175.2 or 5.3 percent.
00:59:19But in 2029,
00:59:21can it be?
00:59:23It depends.
00:59:25As mentioned earlier,
00:59:27green energy.
00:59:29From the calculation
00:59:31we did earlier,
00:59:33from 10.000 trillion,
00:59:353.600 trillion is for energy.
00:59:37The highest.
00:59:39From 3.600 trillion,
00:59:411.000 trillion is for green energy.
00:59:43Green energy.
00:59:45Which we took from target GDP.
00:59:47Target GDP from
00:59:492023 to 2030,
00:59:51is 1.400 trillion.
00:59:53So, per year, it's 200 trillion.
00:59:55We put 1.000 trillion there.
00:59:57So, we need from 3.600 trillion,
00:59:591.000 trillion comes from green energy.
01:00:01That's why,
01:00:03I talked to Prof. Nas,
01:00:05this should be our flagship.
01:00:07Our flagship growth is green growth.
01:00:09Because on one hand, it's sustainable.
01:00:11But on the other hand,
01:00:13the leverage factor is quite high.
01:00:15Okay. Thank you, Mr. Fitra.
01:00:17So, achievable with certain condition.
01:00:19Which is, the condition is
01:00:21extremely heavy.
01:00:37Okay, Prof. Bambang.
01:00:39Can I have
01:00:41the closing statement?
01:00:43And also,
01:00:45the same question, Prof.
01:00:47How confident are we
01:00:49and how to make
01:00:51we are confident to achieve
01:00:538% in 2029?
01:00:55Okay.
01:00:57We have,
01:00:59our economy has grown
01:01:018% in 1994,
01:01:031995.
01:01:05And then,
01:01:07the 8% growth,
01:01:09as Mr. Fitra said,
01:01:11is needed
01:01:13if we want to achieve
01:01:15Indonesia in 2045.
01:01:17To be a developed country.
01:01:19Now, the question is,
01:01:21why did we have 8%
01:01:23in 1994, 1995?
01:01:25If we trace back
01:01:27the economic data at that time,
01:01:29the key is two.
01:01:31High investment growth,
01:01:33which means
01:01:35the growth of investment
01:01:37is around 10%.
01:01:39While the growth of investment
01:01:41was only 5%.
01:01:43The second,
01:01:45what is the dominant sector?
01:01:47As Ms. Vera said, manufacturing.
01:01:49So, Indonesia has grown
01:01:518%
01:01:53because of high investment
01:01:55with the focus
01:01:57on manufacturing sector.
01:01:59It means, even though
01:02:01we can't repeat 100%,
01:02:03around 8%
01:02:05in 2029,
01:02:07there is no other way
01:02:09except what I want to emphasize
01:02:11as reindustrialization.
01:02:13So, reintroducing manufacturing
01:02:15as the engine of
01:02:17Indonesia's economic growth.
01:02:19Because it not only creates
01:02:21high growth, but it also
01:02:23creates a large job market.
01:02:25Even though, now,
01:02:27we also have to adopt
01:02:29digital transformation
01:02:31for the manufacturing process itself.
01:02:33But, on the other hand,
01:02:35there is a new opportunity,
01:02:37which was mentioned by Fitra in the last part,
01:02:39which is, the manufacturing
01:02:41that we will develop later
01:02:43must first
01:02:45support hillarization.
01:02:47So, hillarization is not only
01:02:49just an additional value
01:02:51outside of mining
01:02:53or agriculture,
01:02:55but it must be as hillarious as possible,
01:02:57as high as possible,
01:02:59to revive the manufacturing sector,
01:03:01which should see
01:03:03the advantages of Indonesia,
01:03:05to advance sustainability.
01:03:07So, it means,
01:03:09we develop sustainable manufacturing
01:03:11with the support
01:03:13of digital technology,
01:03:15but to be able to
01:03:17reach there, we need a large investment.
01:03:19So, those are
01:03:21some of the key words that are needed
01:03:23if we really want
01:03:258% to be achieved,
01:03:27at least in 2029.
01:03:29Okay, so the key is investment
01:03:31and especially in manufacturing,
01:03:33right, Prof?
01:03:35As a president advisor,
01:03:37you have already said this, right?
01:03:39Actually, since
01:03:41the transition period,
01:03:43it has been talked about.
01:03:45The important thing is we go back to manufacturing,
01:03:47but we can't repeat 1994.
01:03:49Because 1994 is the manufacturing
01:03:51that can be said
01:03:53is mostly sunset now.
01:03:55While labor intensive.
01:03:57Now, what kind of manufacturing is it?
01:03:59Hillarious.
01:04:01Hillarious that advances sustainability.
01:04:03Thank you,
01:04:05Prof. Bambang.
01:04:07I put
01:04:09Mrs. Fira at the back.
01:04:11Maybe Mr. Bani first.
01:04:13Related to
01:04:15the same question earlier.
01:04:17How confident
01:04:19and
01:04:21maybe related to
01:04:23in the logistics industry
01:04:25and shipping related to
01:04:278% economic growth
01:04:29in 2029.
01:04:31Maybe Mr. Bani,
01:04:33what is the insight like?
01:04:37Yes, earlier I
01:04:39actually the answer is the same.
01:04:41If the question is the same, the answer is the same.
01:04:43Earlier I have
01:04:45told a little
01:04:47about various
01:04:49projects in the field
01:04:51of logistics infrastructure.
01:04:55We are very
01:04:57extraordinary left behind.
01:04:59On the side of
01:05:01logistics infrastructure.
01:05:03If we talk about port,
01:05:05the port quality in Indonesia is very
01:05:07extraordinary left behind
01:05:09compared to
01:05:11advanced countries.
01:05:15For example, what Mr. Bambang said earlier,
01:05:17our 5 main trade partners,
01:05:19China, US,
01:05:21or Japan.
01:05:23Within ASEAN
01:05:25alone,
01:05:27we are extraordinary left behind.
01:05:29So, this agenda can be
01:05:31set by Mr. Bambang?
01:05:33Of course.
01:05:35Related to the importance of
01:05:37the progress.
01:05:39This whole agenda is set by
01:05:41Mr. Bambang.
01:05:43But it means,
01:05:45with that also,
01:05:47for us, for me,
01:05:49and Mrs. Fera, we are happy.
01:05:51It means,
01:05:53if we want to pursue growth,
01:05:55the port must also be pursued.
01:05:57If the port is not pursued,
01:05:59we will not be able to scale
01:06:01to attract a large FDI
01:06:03if the efficiency
01:06:05of the logistics cost
01:06:07cannot be obtained in Indonesia.
01:06:09Because indeed,
01:06:11the port is not enough.
01:06:13Or it's just a port.
01:06:15So, actually,
01:06:17I am very optimistic
01:06:19looking at
01:06:21the gesture
01:06:23or policy of the government
01:06:25which repeatedly said
01:06:27that we will provide
01:06:29infrastructure, opportunity,
01:06:31investment
01:06:33to private sector,
01:06:35even to
01:06:37foreign.
01:06:39Let's face it,
01:06:41in tourism,
01:06:43there is a lack of attractiveness.
01:06:45But,
01:06:47who doesn't like to fly to Indonesia?
01:06:49The airport is not good.
01:06:51Don't compare it
01:06:53to the airport in China
01:06:55or for example,
01:06:57in America.
01:06:59Compare it to Thailand.
01:07:01It's very far.
01:07:03We enter Bangkok and Jakarta,
01:07:05it's very far.
01:07:07The volume is also very far.
01:07:09So, it's not that people don't want to come.
01:07:11It's because the entrance is not good.
01:07:13Well, it's the same.
01:07:15It's people and goods.
01:07:17The port,
01:07:19to enter here,
01:07:21the smoothness is very far.
01:07:23Compare it to Vietnam, Thailand,
01:07:25Singapore,
01:07:27it's far.
01:07:29They're going to be 70 million
01:07:31TUs a year.
01:07:33Priok is not 10, of course.
01:07:35So,
01:07:37the gesture of the government
01:07:39is right by pushing
01:07:41and the proof is given
01:07:43the chance, we compete
01:07:45for one port.
01:07:47It's Abu Dhabi,
01:07:49has a big appetite.
01:07:51European, we with MSC,
01:07:53has a big appetite. Japanese also
01:07:55has a big appetite. They want to make it.
01:07:57Why? Because Indonesia's market is big.
01:08:01Both as a target market
01:08:03and also
01:08:05the market that will be the center of manufacturing later.
01:08:07So, I'm optimistic,
01:08:09Mr. Omar Toyo.
01:08:11And it looks like the government policy
01:08:13is going in the right direction.
01:08:15So, it's true
01:08:17that the key word is
01:08:19Istiqomah.
01:08:21Okay, thank you.
01:08:23Mr. Bhani.
01:08:25The one who's always optimistic.
01:08:27And it looks like the point has been
01:08:29reached.
01:08:31What's it called?
01:08:33The president's advice.
01:08:35The president's advice.
01:08:37Okay.
01:08:39For
01:08:41the last session,
01:08:43related to the closing statement,
01:08:45maybe Mrs. Fera can
01:08:47also say something.
01:08:49Maybe there's something you want to say.
01:08:53I think we're very optimistic
01:08:55with Indonesia's economy.
01:08:57The largest economy in Southeast Asia
01:08:59with this large population.
01:09:01Some industries
01:09:03that in the last 3 years
01:09:05have been growing
01:09:07and I'm sure in the next 5 years,
01:09:09will continue to grow.
01:09:11One of them is the logistics business.
01:09:13Packaging business.
01:09:15It never ends.
01:09:17It continues to grow with the development of e-commerce.
01:09:19Digitalization.
01:09:21Packaging is one of them
01:09:23that never stops.
01:09:25This is one of them that I think
01:09:27any businessman,
01:09:29because there's an opportunity.
01:09:31Don't worry.
01:09:33I'm sure the economy will grow on its own.
01:09:35And
01:09:37we're talking about
01:09:39GDP growth per capita.
01:09:41Right now, there are several industries.
01:09:43Education business.
01:09:45Health business.
01:09:47Health, sports, everywhere,
01:09:49it's becoming a new way of life.
01:09:51Vitamins, supplements,
01:09:53good or bad, but it still works and so on.
01:09:55Then, tourism business.
01:09:57So,
01:09:59if we look ahead,
01:10:01I see that banks are also
01:10:03ready to finance
01:10:05far more
01:10:07diverse industries.
01:10:09And don't forget,
01:10:11technology is one of the areas
01:10:13that any businessman,
01:10:15we can't forget to invest in technology.
01:10:17Why?
01:10:19We have to remain competitive.
01:10:21Compete with products from China.
01:10:23Especially from China.
01:10:25We also have to be super efficient.
01:10:27So we can bring down the cost
01:10:29of production and so on.
01:10:31This is one of the
01:10:33challenges,
01:10:35but also an opportunity for
01:10:37Indonesian business to improve.
01:10:39Lastly, let's talk about ESG.
01:10:41I believe, as Mr. Bambang and
01:10:43Mr. Rosan said,
01:10:45in the next five years,
01:10:47the industry itself will
01:10:49start to design
01:10:51with sustainability.
01:10:53I think this is
01:10:55something that is no longer
01:10:57a disappointment,
01:10:59it has become a part of
01:11:01what we see more and more
01:11:03in the industry.
01:11:05So that the opportunity to finance
01:11:07green energy, sustainable financing
01:11:09will continue to grow.
01:11:11We are also starting to think about
01:11:13what products are suitable,
01:11:15what incentives are suitable.
01:11:17So, the opportunity
01:11:19for growth
01:11:21in the future is very wide.
01:11:23Legal certainty,
01:11:25policy,
01:11:27we need to work together
01:11:29between the private sector and the government.
01:11:31I remain optimistic
01:11:33to see Indonesia's growth in the future.
01:11:35Another business opportunity
01:11:37that is actually
01:11:39still small in Indonesia
01:11:41is waste management.
01:11:43If all industries
01:11:45think about recycling,
01:11:47ladies and gentlemen,
01:11:49this is a business opportunity
01:11:51that is not many in Indonesia.
01:11:53I see this will continue to develop.
01:11:55For example, in the bank,
01:11:57our bank is not a manufacturer,
01:11:59so there is no,
01:12:01if it is a factory, there is waste,
01:12:03there is garbage.
01:12:05It turns out that in the bank,
01:12:07when we started talking to
01:12:09corporate debtors, talking about
01:12:11carbon emissions, ESG,
01:12:13when we discussed on the board,
01:12:15our CEO asked,
01:12:17how do you manage your waste management?
01:12:19If the customers ask,
01:12:21what has BCA done?
01:12:23Finally, we also started,
01:12:25how do we start,
01:12:27this is a story from 3-4 years ago,
01:12:29how to promote
01:12:31operational friendly
01:12:33in terms of environment friendly operation.
01:12:35There is a lot of waste in the bank,
01:12:37there is a lot of electronic waste.
01:12:39The cards in your wallet
01:12:41are debit cards,
01:12:43plastic cards, every four years,
01:12:45those that are replaced, those that are broken,
01:12:47it is calculated that every year
01:12:49there can be 1 million debit cards.
01:12:51In the past, what do you want to do?
01:12:53You throw it away.
01:12:55The machine that we use to move the card
01:12:57must be broken.
01:12:59Usually it is thrown away.
01:13:01Not even seragam.
01:13:03If you go to the branch,
01:13:05all the customer service tellers
01:13:07use seragam.
01:13:09Once a year it is replaced.
01:13:11The seragam that has been used
01:13:13is thrown away.
01:13:15So what do we do?
01:13:17We burn it.
01:13:19Now we do recycling.
01:13:21It is an extra cost.
01:13:23When we want to do this,
01:13:25the business owner is not there yet.
01:13:27The sender is not there yet, etc.
01:13:29We invite MSMEs
01:13:31to be financed.
01:13:33We ask them to learn
01:13:35how to do recycle business.
01:13:37From the discussion earlier,
01:13:39it is very interesting,
01:13:41from the business angle,
01:13:43from the challenge,
01:13:45it turns out there is an opportunity.
01:13:47But with conditions.
01:13:51Also, the input from business owners,
01:13:53such as Mr. Bani,
01:13:55related to the port,
01:13:57it is very valid.
01:13:59Hopefully, it will be heard by
01:14:03Mr. Bambang
01:14:05to be later
01:14:07a recommendation.
01:14:09Also, in the logistics supply chain,
01:14:11it is very felt,
01:14:13related to the cost
01:14:15of moving goods.
01:14:17In Indonesia,
01:14:19if we are in a group,
01:14:21we are in a multinational,
01:14:23it is always said that it is the most expensive,
01:14:25related to the
01:14:27supply chain activity.
01:14:29Hopefully, in the future,
01:14:33I am sure President Prabowo
01:14:35can realize
01:14:37his ambition
01:14:39to make
01:14:41Indonesia's economy
01:14:43up to 8%.
01:14:45Hopefully, all of us are also
01:14:47part of it
01:14:49to support
01:14:51the existence of 8% economic growth.
01:15:07Thank you very much.
01:15:37Thank you very much.