"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Prime Market Review, Jumat (21/02/2025) dengan tema Tantangan Deindustrialisasi Capai Target Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 8%".
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00:00Indonesia's Domestic Brutus
00:13Yes, viewers, the manufacturing industry recorded a contribution of 18.98%
00:18to Indonesia's domestic brutus product throughout 2024.
00:23And with a consistent increase in contributions in the last two years,
00:27the government is confident that Indonesia is free from the threat of deindustrialization.
00:37The manufacturing industry is the largest contributor to Indonesia's domestic brutus product,
00:41with a contribution of 18.98% throughout 2024.
00:48Thus, the manufacturing sector has become one of the main drivers of national economic growth throughout the past year.
00:56There was also a contribution from the manufacturing industry of 18.98% in 2024,
01:01recorded an increase compared to 2023, which was 18.67%,
01:07and in 2022, which was 18.34%.
01:14The business sector with the largest contribution to the economy
01:19is the manufacturing industry, trade, agriculture, construction, and mining,
01:30which also continues a positive growth trend.
01:39Amlia says the manufacturing industry is driven by domestic and foreign demands,
01:43with several sub-industry sectors supporting it, namely food and beverage,
01:47basic metal and metal goods, computers, electronic goods, optics, and electrical equipment.
01:55The data released by Minister of Industry Agus Bimewangkarta Sasmita confirms
01:59that this should be able to give an insight
02:02from the side of the Indonesian people who are experiencing deindustrialization here.
02:07Previously, Agus admitted that he had targeted high-income sectors
02:12including the labor sector, as well as sectors that are likely to be depressed next year.
02:19From Jakarta, Harjo Padmo, IDX Jenung.
02:25Yes, viewers, here are the data related to the largest contributor of Indonesia's GDP in 2024.
02:34Yes, as you can see, the manufacturing industry reached 18.98% of Indonesia's GDP.
02:41Then there is the trading sector, 13.07%, agriculture 12.61%, construction 10.09%, and mining 9.15%.
02:54Next, let's look at the contribution of the manufacturing industry to economic growth.
02:59We will look at the movement from 2021 to 2024.
03:05The manufacturing industry tends to experience an increase,
03:10but this can be said to experience a stagnation of 0.7%, 1.01%, 0.95%, and 0.9% in 2024.
03:20Next, let's look at the growth of the manufacturing industry.
03:24This is also in 2018.
03:26The movement was indeed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
03:29We experienced a negative growth of 2.93%.
03:32Then it rose to 4.43% in 2024.
03:40Those are some of the data that we have provided.
03:44To discuss our interesting topic related to the challenge of deindustrialization
03:48in achieving the target of 8% economic growth.
03:51We have connected via Zoom with Nailul Huda, the Director of Seleos Digital Economy.
03:58Hello, Nailul. How are you?
04:01Hello, Mr. Pres. How are you? I'm fine.
04:05I hope you are well too.
04:06I'm fine too. Thank you for your time, Nailul.
04:09Let's talk about the growth of the manufacturing industry in the last few years.
04:16You said it was one of the main supporters of national economic growth.
04:22Yes.
04:23Of course, if we look at the size,
04:26the manufacturing industry is still the main supporter of economic growth in Indonesia.
04:34If we look at the DPDB portion, it has not yet reached 19%.
04:40But if we look at it, there are some data.
04:45This is a year's data.
04:47There are some data that can be compared.
04:51If we compare it to 2010,
04:54of course, the portion or contribution from the manufacturing industry to the DPDB has actually decreased.
05:02In 2010, it was around 22%.
05:07But in 2024, it was 18.98% or 94%.
05:13There is also growth.
05:18The growth is also relatively below national economic growth.
05:25This is what we hope.
05:27There is a breakthrough from the government to be able to increase the energy from the manufacturing industry
05:35so that we do not experience deindustrialization.
05:39But for some economic groups,
05:43there is indeed a direction towards deindustrialization.
05:48When we see the contribution decreasing,
05:51then the growth of the oil sector also slows down, etc.
05:56This is what causes us to see that there is a potential for deindustrialization.
06:02Okay, but what do you think is the potential for deindustrialization in Indonesia?
06:08Because we remember that the trend in terms of economic growth is still stagnant at 5%.
06:13Then the tendency from the industry side is that the trend is still rising slowly.
06:19What needs to be seen?
06:22The first is from the contribution that we see,
06:26although there are improvements in the last year,
06:30but if we look at the medium and long term,
06:34this is what we are worried about.
06:36We actually see from the contribution that I mentioned,
06:40from 22% to 19%.
06:44Even if we look from before 2010,
06:48in the year 2000, it can reach 25%.
06:51That's why we have to be careful.
06:53Although we realize that when the industry is already high,
07:01the contribution will shift to the private sector or the consumer sector.
07:07This is what we see happening.
07:10That's why deindustrialization is not a problem,
07:14because the contribution will definitely shift to the private sector,
07:17just like in other developing countries.
07:19But the problem is that our private sector is not strong yet, etc.
07:23But our manufacturing industry has decreased its contribution.
07:26This is what we see as a threat to deindustrialization.
07:31Because if we look at it, our service sector, our manufacturing sector,
07:35is not fulfilled by the manufacturing industry in Indonesia,
07:38but it is fulfilled by imported goods.
07:41That's what we don't want.
07:44Okay.
07:45More because of global challenges,
07:47when you see the potential for deindustrialization
07:50that still affects the Indonesian economy,
07:52or is it because there are thousands of imported products,
07:56do we need to strengthen our own economy or what?
08:03Yes.
08:04What is certain is that if we look at it,
08:06we are not too good at absorbing investment,
08:12especially investment from abroad.
08:14If we look at it, compared to Vietnam, for example.
08:18Vietnam's FDI per GDP is higher and higher
08:23compared to Indonesia.
08:27Then, if we look at it,
08:30also from the production side in Indonesia,
08:33this is still raw material.
08:36And if we look at it from other countries,
08:40it has switched to high-tech technology.
08:43For example,
08:44if we look at the manufacturing industry,
08:47they export high-tech products.
08:50In Indonesia,
08:51the export of high-tech products is only 8% of our total exports.
08:56It is more dominated by commodity exports.
09:00But if we look at Malaysia,
09:02the export is more of high-tech products.
09:07So, high-tech technology has been exported by Malaysia,
09:10as well as Vietnam.
09:12So, this is what we see,
09:14a picture of why there is a challenge in our industry,
09:19that the industry that was built
09:22is still an industry that is dominated by commodities.
09:25This is what other countries have done to the high-tech industry.
09:31Interesting.
09:32If we look at the current digital era,
09:34technological challenges are still the main obstacle for Indonesia
09:39in terms of the ability of the SDM, the workers.
09:42But at the same time,
09:43the government is also trying to try to balance these conditions
09:47by doing training, support, and so on.
09:51In your opinion, is this right?
09:54Or does it need to be encouraged again?
09:59Yes, if we look at the strategy to push human capital,
10:02it is already very accurate.
10:04But we are still lacking
10:07in terms of effort and so on.
10:09Because if we look at the human capital index in Indonesia,
10:12it is still relatively inferior to Vietnam and Malaysia.
10:17That's why, Mr. Pras, if we look at it,
10:19yesterday there was a crowd,
10:21there was a global technology company
10:24who wanted to enter ASEAN.
10:26It turned out that only one person went to Indonesia,
10:28did not deposit a large amount of capital to Indonesia.
10:31Instead, they deposited a large amount of capital in Malaysia and Vietnam.
10:36It means that human capital is indeed one of those
10:39that is considered by global investors,
10:42especially those who are creative in technology,
10:44to plant their capital in a country.
10:46We actually hope that the government programs
10:50are very accurate.
10:52There is a balance sheet, there is a focus, and so on.
10:55This does prepare human capital.
10:58Human capital that is better in the future.
11:00But it's still less massive and so on.
11:04We are aware that the population itself is quite large.
11:10It can't be optimal in a short time.
11:13But we hope that there will be acceleration,
11:15there will be a better strategy from the government
11:21to increase human capital in Indonesia
11:24so that we can attract global technology companies
11:30to enter our country.
11:32Okay, Mr. Nailul, what is the trigger
11:35if you say there is a threat of deindustrialization in Indonesia
11:40because of those factors?
11:41Is it the SDM, the human capital,
11:44or the era of technology itself that we can't catch up with?
11:50Is it also a challenge from the global condition?
11:53Yes, of course, the global condition is very influential.
11:57We will definitely compete with other countries.
12:01We can see that in the era of President Trump,
12:08in the US, they are American first.
12:12Then make America great again.
12:15Which gives quite a lot of incentives to the manufacturing sector in the US.
12:20Then we also see the competitiveness in Indonesia
12:25compared to Asian countries.
12:27We know that in China, there is quite a large capital outflow.
12:32That the FDA in China is moving,
12:35but unfortunately not to Indonesia,
12:38but more to Vietnam and the like.
12:42This is what I see as a global challenge there.
12:45The second is a challenge from within the country,
12:48that the human capital is not enough.
12:51Then also from the side,
12:53we actually demand from the labor laws
12:57made by the government in 2020-2021,
13:03this does not cause a significant effect
13:06for our economy, especially investment.
13:09Whereas in the labor law,
13:11the investment instruments are very, very careful
13:15and processed by the government
13:18and with the promise of increasing investment.
13:20This is what we demand from the implementation
13:23or implementation of the labor law.
13:26So what are the breakthroughs that must be done by the government
13:30if the manufacturing or processing industry
13:34is still the driving force of Indonesia's economy?
13:37We will discuss later in the next segment.
13:39We will talk for a while.
13:41We will be right back after the break.
13:50PANCASILA
14:00President Prabowo Subianto admitted
14:03that the target of economic growth in the government
14:06of only 8% will face a number of challenges.
14:09For that reason, the head of state stressed
14:11the importance of economic development
14:13based on Pancasila.
14:17PANCASILA
14:19President Prabowo Subianto targeted economic growth
14:22up to 8% during his government.
14:25Even so, Prabowo admitted that the achievement of the target
14:28will face a number of challenges.
14:30One of them is the score of the incremental capital output ratio
14:34which is still high.
14:38There was a number earlier.
14:40Yes, I did predict 8% growth.
14:47There are many who are not sure and don't believe.
14:52Let's prove it.
14:55It's not certain that we will reach 8%.
14:59But once again,
15:01brave leaders, great leaders
15:06in my own experience,
15:10in my career as a judge,
15:14if I face a tough opponent,
15:19I have to be sure that I will succeed.
15:24In order to achieve the target of economic growth of 8%,
15:28Prabowo emphasized the importance of economic development
15:31based on the values of Pancasila
15:33as a guide to achieve the welfare of the people.
15:36The head of state also stressed that the government
15:38not only acts as a regulator,
15:40but also as an implementer and guardian of the national economy.
15:44Therefore, President Prabowo reminded the regional leaders
15:47to carry out development programs with clear, realistic priorities
15:50and direct impact on the people.
15:52From Jakarta, Timi Brutan, IDX News.
15:58Next, related to data,
16:00Indonesia's GDP per capita.
16:02What is it like? We will discuss together the trend.
16:05As you can see, it keeps going up.
16:08From the GDP per capita of Indonesia from 2020
16:14to 2045,
16:17which is expected to reach US$23,199.
16:22Next, Indonesia's economic growth target,
16:24as mentioned earlier by the President,
16:27is 8%.
16:29This requires extraordinary effort.
16:32And here it is, from 2029, 8%.
16:36As you can see, the gap is 5.7%, 6.4%, 7%, and 7.5%.
16:42Let's continue our discussion with Nailul Huda,
16:45the Director of Economic Digital Serious.
16:47Nailul, we are talking about challenges.
16:49Earlier, the President said that we have to be brave.
16:52We have to be confident with the target we have set.
16:56Even so, there are still many challenges.
16:58One of them is deindustrialization,
17:00which still affects Indonesia's economy.
17:03Next, innovation.
17:05What kind of breakthroughs need to be made?
17:07Is it extraordinary?
17:10Do we need extraordinary policies?
17:13Yes.
17:14First, we have to look at the problem.
17:18Before we talk about the breakthroughs,
17:21we have to talk about the problem.
17:23I have already mentioned a few problems.
17:25There are two other problems that are actually quite crucial.
17:28The first is logistic costs.
17:30Logistic costs in Indonesia are still quite expensive.
17:33This means that to send goods from the industrial center,
17:41from raw material base, to processing, and so on,
17:46and from the industrial center to the consumer is quite expensive.
17:50This means that we need to reduce logistic costs in Indonesia.
17:56Why?
17:57Because there is no infrastructure for better roads.
18:03Then there are ports that do not queue, and so on.
18:07Including the traffic jams on the road.
18:10The second is related to traffic jams,
18:13which is the value of our share,
18:16or what we call capital output ratio.
18:18What we can usually call is the efficiency of our economy.
18:24When the value of the share is high,
18:27this automatically creates a higher performance,
18:32and requires a larger capital.
18:34This is what we see, there are still many holes,
18:38there are still many leaks, and so on.
18:40That's from the value of the share,
18:42that in Indonesia, there is an inefficiency
18:47in using the model to increase economic growth.
18:52This can be from many things.
18:54One of them is from the point of view of legalization, corruption, and so on,
18:58which is still a burden for our economy.
19:03We don't talk about the economy as an institution itself,
19:08but we also see that the law also affects the economy in Indonesia.
19:13When the law in Indonesia is still very weak,
19:16then it still becomes corrupt and so on,
19:19inefficient bureaucracy,
19:21this is what makes the economy in Indonesia inefficient.
19:25That's why, as I said,
19:28improving the performance of corruption,
19:32more efficient bureaucracy, and so on,
19:35can be ammunition
19:38to increase our economic growth even better in the future.
19:43Okay, but with that challenge,
19:45how do you see the efforts that have been made by the government?
19:48Because we know that our fundamental conditions
19:52are still maintained in terms of our economic growth,
19:55and the central bank is still holding at 5.75% of the GDP.
19:59That means your optimism and self-confidence
20:02are still quite strong at the moment.
20:05Yes, if we are optimistic,
20:07we will definitely be optimistic
20:09that the economic growth in the future will be even better.
20:11But we also have to look at the data,
20:15the support data,
20:17that there are costs and so on
20:20that should be solved by the executive and the monetary side.
20:25If we look at the executive side,
20:28the government in terms of using its fiscal space,
20:33which I think can also be a challenge,
20:36that our fiscal policies
20:40must be accompanied by targets
20:44to support better economic growth.
20:47The second is,
20:49for us to see the manufacturing industry as the main supporter,
20:54it also needs a fairly passive push from the government.
20:58For example, we are moving for the manufacturing industry,
21:02which is low and so on,
21:04with some policies.
21:06The policy that I think is quite good
21:08is the policy that it provides incentives
21:10for super tax deductions
21:12for companies that it can find innovation,
21:16can absorb focus energy, and so on.
21:19This is what I think can be grabbed by companies
21:23to further increase inflation in Indonesia.
21:26The second is,
21:28from the monetary side,
21:29of course we must be able to see
21:31that when this happens,
21:35the flow rate is still maintained at 5.79%.
21:38What we expect is actually
21:40there is a lower decline
21:43to be able to drive economic growth,
21:46then it can increase from the credit side and so on,
21:50investment and so on.
21:52What we expect is from the monetary side
21:54which also provides stimulus.
21:56A stimulus from the flow rate
21:58which is more competitive
22:01compared to other countries.
22:04With the current conditions,
22:06can you say that our manufacturing sector
22:10is still safe from the threat of deindustrialization?
22:15Yes.
22:16If I look at it,
22:17there is actually a potential for deindustrialization.
22:21But what we expect from our industry
22:24is that it is still supported by several sectors
22:27that I think are quite strong.
22:29For example, in the food and beverage sector,
22:30it is still quite strong.
22:32Then there are several industries
22:34that have increased,
22:35such as processing from the paper sector.
22:39Then from the humanization side,
22:42there is also an industry that is quite strong there.
22:46What we hope,
22:47what we avoid is
22:49there are industries that have sunset
22:52and need more handling from the government.
22:54For example, the textile industry.
22:55In this textile industry,
22:56we encourage more handling from the government
22:59to be able to save this textile industry.
23:01Then there are several industries,
23:03such as electronic assembly, etc.
23:06Yesterday we saw,
23:07heard the news,
23:08there is a factory in Karawang
23:10that he wants to move, etc.
23:12Move from Indonesia.
23:13What we hope is
23:15there is a push from the government
23:17to give incentives.
23:18Incentives for industries that he,
23:21for example,
23:22he works in the field
23:27or intensive labor.
23:31When there is intensive labor,
23:33then there needs to be a push from the incentive.
23:36That's why we were quite appreciative yesterday
23:39with the incentive for PPH DTP
23:44for industries that he is intensive labor.
23:48Yes, it means that we need a correct policy framework.
23:52It's like we want to treat a patient,
23:54the medicine must be correct,
23:55the dose must be correct.
23:57When the industry is experiencing a sunset,
23:59the medicine must be strengthened
24:01so that it can balance the manufacturing
24:04or management conditions in Indonesia.
24:06Thank you very much for your time,
24:08analysis and information
24:10to the audience today.
24:11Congratulations on your activity again.
24:13Good health.
24:14See you again.
24:16All right, audience,
24:17I've been with you for an hour in Market Review.
24:20Keep sharing your information on IDX channel,
24:24and comprehensive investment reference.
24:26Because the business of the future must move forward,
24:28I am an stock investor.
24:30I am Prasetyo Wibowo,
24:32along with all the workers who are on duty.
24:34I bid you farewell.
24:36See you again.